NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[MI Dendream]

There are many folks indicating that they expect LP to wait until mid August when all patients are 5 years post surgery to lock the database.

I really doubt this is the case for a couple reasons. First, I believe the 10Q statements regarding anticipating lock in the near term were written in good faith, and that the delay, if there is one, is just due to difficulty gathering all signatures required. Again, I personally think lock has already occurred and they are not planning to issue a PR until TLD, but I acknowledge that this is a leap of faith.

Second, in order to make the waiting game worthwhile, they would need to conduct study related contacts with the remaining patients at or after the time they cross 5 years on trial. This would cause a much longer delay than mid August because then they would have to repeat all the QC measures including a monitoring visit and query resolution, before sign off and lock. We’re talking September and back to the first point again about 10q language.

Third, in terms of study analysis, it is time from randomizaion that matters, not time from surgery. So to really make waiting worthwhile, we would need to hold off until November to complete point 2 and lock would be pushed into late November or early December.

Finally, Point two and three are clearly different than even the most generous definition of “approximately the end of next week” aka July 2, that this would expose themselves to another round of lawsuits. I don’t think anyone wants that. Given the number of shares LP and colleagues control, this would be At least as painful for them as it would us retail investors.

In the end, I believe either COVID delays were underestimated or DL has already occurred with me favoring the later. Just hang on a little longer folks...we are in the ninth inning and have a few homeruns on the board..