THE GREAT GEOPOLITICAL THEATER: WHO IS REALLY PROFITING FROM YOUR FEAR?
Tracing the money from the gas pump to the war room – and why the "crisis" is actually a profitable business plan for the global elite
https://independentvalue1.substack.com/p/the-great-geopolitical-theater-who

I hope you have heard of the term "Seven Sisters?????
more > https://substack.com/[@ userid=232676364]?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7wpsac

The Middle Eastern Gambit: From U.S. "Protection Racket" to the Green Trap
What we are witnessing in the Gulf today is not just a conflict; it is the final act of an era. For decades, Arab monarchies paid a "protection racket"—billions of dollars for U.S. weapons and bases under the promise of a secure sky. But when cheap drones and missiles pierced those expensive shields, the mask fell. U.S. weaponry proved ineffective against Iran’s asymmetric warfare. The Arabs have learned a bitter truth: they are paying a protector who cannot—or will not—actually protect them.

As America slowly retreats, realizing it has lost its footing, it leaves behind scorched earth—literally.

1. The End of Illusion and New Alliances
The Arabs no longer see any sense in "buying" peace from Washington. It is more logical and cheaper for them to sit at the table with Iran, find a common language as "Semitic brothers," and say goodbye to America. This shift toward regional peace without Western intermediaries is the greatest defeat for U.S. diplomacy in this century.

2. Permanent Damage and the $100 Oil Floor
The damage to oil and gas infrastructure is so massive that it will take years for production to return to normal. This isn't a random glitch; it is a structural severance. With oil locked at $100 and above, the era of cheap energy is dead. Investors no longer believe in quick fixes because the physical foundations of production have been dismantled.

3. The Plan Succeeded: Forcing the Green Agenda
This permanently high oil price fits perfectly into the global agenda for e-mobility and the "Green Transition." No one has to convince you to buy an electric car anymore—the price at the pump will force your hand. Whoever pulled the strings, the plan worked: while the region turns toward peace and new alliances, the rest of the world is being shoved into a "green future" through chaos and high costs.

Another One of Trump’s Bluffs – Markets and Bond Yields Call the Shots🤣
https://substack.com/[@ userid=232081967]

Reality Check for Wall Street: Why Trump is Tucking His Tail on Iran?

Guys, are you seeing this shift? It looks like Trump just got a massive "cold shower" from the intelligence community. The moment Israel presented the actual reports on the ground and the potential chaos of a direct conflict, the rhetoric changed instantly.

This isn't just about military strategy; it’s about the massive pressure from Gulf countries lobbying hard in D.C. No one in the region wants their refineries going up in flames over someone else’s ego. Trump, the self-proclaimed "deal maker," knows that skyrocketing oil prices and war expenses are the last things his investors want to see.

He’s tucking his tail because the numbers simply don't add up. Is this just a temporary breather, or has he finally realized that Iran is a bite too big for the current budget to swallow?

What’s your take?

There is a serious risk that Lloyd’s of London, the world’s leading marine insurer with 400 years of history, could pull back if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate further. Should that happen, the market could face immediate chaos: no insurance, skyrocketing transport costs, and severe disruption to global trade. No institution has the capacity to absorb this level of sustained risk indefinitely.

Despite the release of strategic oil reserves, oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. For me, this is a clear signal that a recession is increasingly inevitable. How the Fed will respond to this newly emerging situation tomorrow is difficult to even imagine.

Inflation is rising, and in the coming months, year-over-year comparisons indicate further acceleration. Any modest rate cuts will likely be insufficient to curb price pressures. I believe interest rates are more likely to rise rather than fall, as authorities attempt to rein in inflation.

Market Implication: Investors should anticipate continued volatility in equity, bond, and commodity markets. Strategic positioning and risk management are critical.

The war with Iran illustrates a recurring lesson in geopolitics: overwhelming technological and military superiority does not guarantee a quick victory. Just as Russia encountered unexpectedly strong resistance in the Russia-Ukraine War, United States and Israel are facing an asymmetric form of warfare that offsets part of their conventional advantage. Iran leverages geography, missile and drone capabilities, and regional networks to prolong the conflict and raise the cost of war. The result is a strategic stalemate in which a rapid victory becomes unlikely and further escalation risks destabilizing the wider region.

Read this mm
CME made oil go from 116-77 in less than a day, must mean they are long on oil collateral. OTC derivatives ???
BREAKING: The head of CME Group has warned the Trump Administration it risks a “biblical disaster” if it attempts to lower oil prices by intervening in derivatives markets during the war with Iran.— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 13, 2026

Great reads mm4Thanks

110 Ships, Hormuz, and the Death of Insurance as We Know It
Today’s escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, with three fresh confirmed hits in a single morning, has pushed the total number of attacked vessels past 110. This is no longer asymmetric harassment—this is a systemic shutdown of Western maritime dominance. When you introduce Lloyd’s of London into the equation—an institution that has been the bedrock of the global order since 1688—the mathematics of risk becomes clear: We are approaching "Game Over."

1. Lloyd’s and the End of Maritime Security
Lloyd’s is not just insurance; it is the supreme judge of global passage. Today’s three attacks prove that Air Defense systems no longer guarantee cargo safety. If Lloyd’s declares Hormuz "uninsurable"—which, following this morning’s events, is statistically inevitable—the global flow of energy stops. Without insurance, tankers become immobile dead capital, and Gulf ports turn into ghost towns.

2. Asymmetry Killing the Profit
With over 110 incidents, the cost ratio is unsustainable. The West defends the seas with billion-dollar destroyers, while Iran and its allies attack with drones costing a few thousand. This is not a war that can be won; it is a budgetary black hole bleeding the West dry. Every hit this morning is another nail in the coffin of European energy security, which, paralyzed and indebted, watches its factories run out of fuel.

3. Geopolitical Vacuum and the Nuclear Epilog
A U.S. withdrawal from this zone would signal the immediate collapse of the Dollar and the end of the Western era. But staying in this "death zone" only means a slower demise. Iran is utilizing this chaos to solidify its position, fully aware that an atomic bomb is the only shield left against a wounded West. While we discuss "strategic reserves," reality on the ground is dictated by those who control the straits.

Conclusion:
This is not a crisis; it is a reset. With 110 ships hit and this morning’s strike on the very jugular vein of Hormuz, the era of safe navigation is over. Anyone who thinks this will settle without a total collapse of European industry and a redefinition of power in the East does not understand the mathematics of blood and oil.

STRATEGIC SENTIMENT: THE END OF ILLUSION AND THE ENERGY ENDGAME

While markets attempt to rationalize the recent rebound of oil from €82 to €90 as a temporary correction, quantitative data and geopolitical realities suggest an asymmetric shock unlike anything in modern investing history. The CBOE Skew Index at 158 is not a statistical anomaly; it is the definitive signature of smart money aggressively hedging against a systemic catastrophe.

1. Military Asymmetry and the "Surgical" Necessity
An analysis of regional defense architecture reveals that conventional options are exhausted. Underground missile facilities, entrenched hundreds of meters into mountain ranges, render traditional air superiority irrelevant. In this landscape, the only logical move for the survival of strategic interests is the deployment of low-yield plutonium penetrators. We are looking at tactical assets designed for immense seismic destruction with a minimal radiological footprint—the only tools capable of permanently neutralizing hardened deep-state assets.

2. Oil as the Terminal Catalyst
The return to €90 oil is merely the overture. In the event of a strike on hardened underground targets, oil ceases to be a commodity and becomes a weapon of mass economic destruction. Expect a parabolic run toward $150–$180. The "Middle East Marsh" is far more perilous than the Ukrainian crisis; here, the very existence of the petrodollar and regional hegemony is at stake. There is no room for defeat.

3. Capital Market Implications
The current tech euphoria is classic exit liquidity for the protagonists. While retail "gamers" chase the dip, institutional capital is eyeing the S&P 500 magnet at 6,200. We are witnessing a historic distribution phase where smart money migrates into physical commodities and USD-hedged assets, leaving retail to hold the bag in an era of high-energy costs and structural hyperinflation.

CONCLUSION:
The divergence between equity prices and energy reality is unsustainable. Skew at 158 is the final warning. The "Black Swan" has not just landed—it has taken over the cockpit. The only question remains: who will have liquidity when the tether snaps?

STRATEGIC MACRO ALERT: THE LIQUIDITY TRAP & ENERGY SHOCK 2.0
CORE THESIS: INSTITUTIONAL DISTRIBUTION UNDER THE GUISE OF A "BULL TRAP"

Market Manipulation (The Exit Strategy): The current price action in DAX (24k+) and S&P 500 is a calculated Distribution Phase. Major protagonists are manufacturing a "Short Squeeze" to generate the necessary exit liquidity. They are offloading overpriced equities to retail participants before the structural collapse.

The Oil-Inflation Nexus: Crude oil stabilizing above $90 is a systemic failure for central banks. This level fundamentally invalidates any "pivot" or rate cut narrative. We are witnessing a guaranteed 1% baseline inflation surge at current prices.

The Armageddon Trigger: If Brent breaches the $150 psychological and structural resistance, we transition from a correction to a Global Economic Collapse. This will be a dual-threat event: a catastrophic Energy Shock coupled with a Second Wave of Hyper-Inflation.

Geopolitical Asymmetry: Physical terrain constraints (Iran’s 6k-meter mountain defense) render conventional military intervention ineffective. The risk premium is not priced in; the "Peace Narrative" is a hollow shell designed to protect institutional exits.

VIX & Skew Divergence: Despite the surface-level rally, the Skew Index remains near record highs, confirming that professional hedgers are bracing for a catastrophic "Tail Risk" event.

CONCLUSION: AWAITING SYSTEMIC CAPILLARY FAILURE. CASH POSITIONING IS THE ONLY ALPHA.

The Debt Trap and the Persian Smoke Screen
Headline: Beyond the Headlines: Why the "Persian Storm" is a Distraction from the Coming Liquidity Meltdown

While the media feeds the public a constant stream of headlines about drones and missiles, a far more lethal bomb is ticking in the silent trading rooms of Tokyo and New York. Everyone is staring at Iran, but that is merely an "Ablenkungsmanöver"—a masterclass in misdirection while the decade-old house of cards, built by central banks through flawed fiscal policies and artificial liquidity, begins to collapse.

We are standing at a precipice, and the real "Sword of Damocles" hangs over Japan. For decades, the global system has been fueled by "free" money from the Yen, fostering a casino mentality among investors who have forgotten the meaning of real risk. But the math is unforgiving: Japan has accumulated a domestic debt exceeding 230% of its GDP. This is mathematically unsustainable in a world where interest rates are no longer zero. The Carry Trade was the engine that artificially pumped global markets to insane heights; now, with oil returning toward $100 and Iran executing its 47-year strategic plan, Japan has no choice but to raise rates to save itself.

When the Yen begins to strengthen, it signals a stampedo. Funds are forced to sell everything: stocks, gold, silver... simply everything is sold just to repay Yen-denominated debts and cover the holes created by decades of reckless money printing. It is a "silent vacuum" of liquidity that ignores price discovery. Today, the bill is finally coming due—for every interest rate kept too low and every decision made to buy a temporary peace while systemic poison accumulated.

The West is caught in its own trap. If they lower rates to save the stock market, the dollar collapses under inflationary pressure. If they keep them high, Japan pulls its capital home and turns off the lights in Frankfurt and New York. The real danger isn't just what you see in the skies over the Middle East, but what is happening in balance sheets that can no longer sustain the lies. Tomorrow morning, don’t just look at the price of oil—watch the Yen. That is where the receipt for a debt no one can repay is being written.

The 47-Year Game of Patience
Headline: Beyond the Headlines: Why the "92-Dollar" Oil is a Perky Illusion in a Persian Chess Match

Don’t be fooled by the screen's flash of green or Brent’s retreat to $87. While Wall Street celebrates a "dip," Teheran is playing a game that began 47 years ago. We are witnessing the rise of a new, highly educated, and far more radical elite—men who possess the ancient Persian wisdom of strategic depth. They aren't looking for a quick skirmish; they are baiting a trap that has been decades in the making.

Western algorithms track drones and missiles, but they fail to track "civilizational resolve." Iran’s goal isn’t a direct win on a battlefield; it’s the systemic exhaustion of the West. By drawing the U.S. deeper into a regional quagmire, they aren't just fighting for territory—they are targeting the petrodollar and the very liquidity of our over-leveraged banking system.

This is an "all-or-nothing" endgame. As oil prices fluctuate, remember that Iran’s consolidation is cold and calculated. They have waited nearly half a century for this moment. They know our system's breaking points—inflation, debt, and the fragility of the overnight repo markets. While we buy the dip, they are playing for the collapse of an era. The real blow won't be a single explosion, but the slow, silent strangulation of global trade routes.

If you think this is over because of a daily price correction, you’ve already lost the game.

The Exit Liquidity Trap
Headline: While You "Buy the Dip," the Giants Are Buying the Exit: The Hidden Truth About Interbank Distrust

Watching today's recovery, I can’t help but ask: how long are we going to believe in fairy tales? While retail investors celebrate the DAX "surviving" 23,000, a massive salvage operation is happening behind the curtain—one that few have the stomach to admit.

The true indicator of market health isn't the green on your screen; it’s what’s happening in the overnight repo markets. If everything is fine, why are the SOFR-OIS spreads widening? Why are the Fed and the ECB frantically solidifying repo backstops of €50 billion per partner? The answer is simple, yet brutal: distrust is back in the system.

Banks have stopped trusting each other’s collateral. When you see these sharp, sudden bounces in the middle of geopolitical chaos, it isn’t a "bull return." It’s a liquidity event. Large institutions use these artificial rallies to dump their heavy positions onto those who still believe in "Santa Claus" and guaranteed profits. While you "buy the dip," they are securing their exit.

The current state of the money markets reminds me hauntingly of the summer of 2007. Private liquidity is drying up, and central banks are desperately trying to plug holes in a sinking ship. We got a glimpse of peace today because oil dipped to $92, but the fundamentals are decaying. Don’t let your savings become the "exit liquidity" for those who know exactly what’s hidden in the big banks' balance sheets.

Stay sharp. Watch the spreads, not the colorful charts.

Physical Silver vs. Paper Silver
Paper silver (ETFs, derivatives, futures) doesn’t always reflect real-world supply. Physical silver — bars, rounds, and coins — is finite, tangible, and immune to financial engineering. When demand spikes, premiums on physical metal soar. Owning bullion gives investors exposure to the real market, not the synthetic one. $CCOM

The End of Car Ownership

Young people are increasingly losing interest in owning a car – not because they don’t want one, but because it simply doesn’t make sense anymore. Prices for vehicles, fuel, insurance, and taxes keep rising, while stable, well-paid jobs are becoming rare. What was once a symbol of freedom and success has turned into a luxury few can afford or justify.

The future of mobility will look very different. Instead of ownership, people will rely more on car sharing, short-term rentals, and soon – robotaxis. When transportation becomes a service rather than a product, the automotive industry must transform as well.

Many car brands we know today may not survive this transition. The market is overcrowded, and the costs of developing electric and autonomous vehicles are enormous. Only those manufacturers who can evolve from traditional carmakers into providers of smart, sustainable, and digital mobility services will have a future.

This shift will also have a massive impact on suppliers who depend on the automotive industry – from parts manufacturers to logistics and the energy sector. Many will need to rethink their business models or even change industries entirely in order to survive.

The future will not belong to those who build the most cars, but to those who create the smartest way to move.

⚠️ Eurozone on the Edge: Two Pillars Weak, Euro an Artificial Construct ⚠️

The two largest guarantors of the common currency, France and Germany, have today become “children in need of care”. Neither is able to pull themselves out of their own crisis, let alone preserve the artificial construct of the euro, which has no real chance of survival.

Although the dollar is weakened, comparing it to the euro is unrealistic. Given its global importance, the dollar should be worth at least 4 euros, not for the euro to be stronger. This is artificial and completely unrealistic, especially considering that France is effectively bankrupt, while Germany is on the same path because its economy is no longer competitive on the world stage.

The Eurozone is in fundamental instability, where artificially supporting the common currency only delays the inevitable collapse, and any further postponement deepens the risk of financial and political catastrophe.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-us-crude-stockpile-drop-adds-sense-tighter-supply-2025-09-24/ 

Wheat, corn, natural gas, oil, gold, silver, platinum all up significantly during the past month and rising further.

$NIO NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, and bodywork services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; statutory and third-party liability insurance, and vehicle damage insurance through third-party insurers; repair and maintenance; courtesy vehicle; data packages; and auto financing and financial leasing services. Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Shanghai, China. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NIO/profile/ Oil Brent

$NIO NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, and bodywork services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; statutory and third-party liability insurance, and vehicle damage insurance through third-party insurers; repair and maintenance; courtesy vehicle; data packages; and auto financing and financial leasing services. Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Shanghai, China. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NIO/profile/ Oil Brent

Crude Oil Sharp Rebound Sets Stage for Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 After a 31.6% drop, crude rebounded sharply and is now consolidating, setting the stage for a possible second rally leg above resistance.

Crude oil has been consolidating for the past four days or so following a sharp one-day bullish reversal last Wednesday. A corrective low of $55.23 was established on that day thereby completing a $25.52 or 31.6% decline in the price of crude when measured from the most recent swing high of $80.76 from mid-January. That low completed a 127.2% extension (close enough) of the largest advance (from May 2023 swing low) since the 2022 peak and touched the lower line of a descending parallel trend channel.



Consolidation Sets Stage for Next Run

On Tuesday, the price of crude oil continued to compress as the day’s trading range was the smallest since the early-April interim swing high, which was followed by a sharp drop to $55.23. At the time of this writing, crude is set to end the day’s session with a narrow range inside day with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12.

A decline below the low of the day has Monday’s low of $60.68 as the next lower target, followed by Friday’s low of $59.54. On the upside, there is initial potential resistance around Monday’s high of $62.74, followed by last Thursday’s high of $63.45. Thursday’s high just about completed a 50% retracement of the latest downswing.

Second Leg up on Horizon?

An intraday chart (not shown) provides more clues about what price levels to watch. There has been one sharp rally from the lows so far followed by a pullback that completed a little more than a 50% retracement before crude began to strengthen. Once the current consolidation phase is complete it looks like there could be a continuation of the rally from the bottom.

There has been only one leg up from that $55.23 low so far, and at least a second leg up would better complete the counter-trend rally. A breakout above today’s high could begin the next leg up. However, that depends on support being retained at or above last Thursday’s low of $58.86.

Largest Bearish Correction Since May 2023

The recent decline was the largest bearish correction in crude oil since May 2023, and it ended with a sharp rally and one-day bullish reversal with a strong closing price. It seems like there is a good chance that the subsequent rally may eventually test resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at $66.18, or the 50-Day MA, now at $68.29. Since support was seen at the bottom of the trend channel, there is a chance that resistance may be tested around the top channel line. Nevertheless, channel analysis is one piece of technical evidence for at least a second leg up for the rally.

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Natural Gas Bulls Eye Breakout from Support of Falling Channel
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025

🔸 Natural gas found support near $3.22, forming a bullish hammer that suggests potential reversal, with upside targets near moving averages and prior highs.

Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Tuesday before finding support at $3,22 and bouncing. Support was seen at a lower descending channel line (red highlight) established by extending the original channel (blue trendlines) by 25%. The low for the day essentially completed an 88.6% Fibonacci extension of the prior upswing. Natural gas is on track to close in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range. If it does so, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern will be generated.



Bull Hammer Breakout Above $3.38

An upside breakout will be triggered on a rally above today’s high. That would put natural gas in a position to eventually test resistance around the top of the channel. For now, the intersection of two trendline at $3.80 can be used as a proxy for the top of the channel. That price level is another price level defined by last Wednesday’s high of $3.83.

Furthermore, better clarity is provided by potential resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.82, and the 50-Day MA at $3.90. Note that the 20-Day MA is falling and will continue to represent a lower price area. It becomes a more significant potential resistance zone if a similar price level is indicated by other analysis.

Rally From Bottom of Channel Targets Top of Range

There is a chance that bullish signs following the completion of an 88.6% retracement may mark the end of the bearish correction. Keep in mind that advances from current levels are counter-trend rallies within a decline trend channel. A rally above the 20-Day MA, followed by a daily close above it would be supportive of the bullish thesis. Earlier signs of strength would be indicated on a rally above Monday’s high of $3. 61. That price would be an initial short-term target following a breakout above today’s high.

Bullish Signs Need Confirmation

Despite the potential for a bullish reversal from a key support zone, a trigger above today’s high is needed for confirmation of strength. There is always a possibility that the bulls cannot maintain control and the bearish correction continues to lower prices. An area of potential support confluence is shown on the chart from $3.08 to $2.99. That price range includes the potentially significant 200-Day MA as possible support at $3.05.

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Crude Oil Continues to See Basing Pattern
By: Christopher Lewis | April 15, 2025

🔸 The crude oil market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market continues to see a lot of traders trying to form a bottom in this market that has been slammed as of late.

CL/WTI Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned right back around. I really think at this point in time, we are probably more or less looking at this as a potential consolidation area, maybe a basing pattern. It is worth noting that the volume has picked up a little bit. So that helps with the idea of accumulation as well.

I think the $63 level remains somewhat important, and I’m pretty sure we’re $60 itself as well. If we can break above $63, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $65 level, which, of course, had previously been support and should now be resistant. There are still a lot of concerns about global demand, so that, of course, continues to keep this market somewhat subdued.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent looks very much the same as it is trading just below the $65 level, an area that of course has a little bit of psychology attached to it, but if we can break above $66, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $70 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time are buying opportunities, especially with the $60 level hanging out just below, which, of course, is a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would be paying close attention to.

And of course, an area where we had seen a lot of volume the last time we were there. So, with that being said, I think you have to like the idea of a consolidation area here. Now we have to see if we can get some type of good news to get the idea of demand picking up to drive prices higher.

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Natural Gas Slumps Toward 200-Day Moving Average Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 14, 2025

🔸 Natural gas broke to $3.31 with bearish signals increasing, likely setting up a test of multi-indicator support around the 200-Day MA near $3.05.

Further bearish signs were indicated for natural gas on Monday as it dropped to a new corrective low of $3.31. Signs of weakness will likely to be confirmed today by a new lower daily closing price, which may be below the 78.6% support zone at $3.40, and possibly below the lower line of a falling trend channel. Note that the channel is extended on the bottom by 25%. The extended lower line is where support for the decline was previously, from last Wednesday.



Bearish Momentum Dominates

Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks poised to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Currently, the low for the day is $3.31. Monday’s session began with a brief rally above Friday’s high to a high of $3.61. A retest of resistance around the center line of a falling parallel trend channel occurred before sellers took back control. A bearish outside day subsequently formed as Friday’s low was busted. Furthermore, the lower line of the descending parallel channel has also failed to hold as support.

Test of 200-Day Moving Average Likely

This puts natural gas in a position to possibly test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.05. There are several other indicators pointing out that price zone as possible support. A falling ABCD pattern completes at $3.08, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $3.03, coinciding with support from the January 31 swing low at $2.99. In addition, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on a move above $3.02 in November. Therefore, along with the last-January swing low, the current decline may provide a retest of that breakout zone.

Multiple Signs of Support Around $3.05

The 200-Day MA was last reclaimed in September of last year and that was followed by a successful test of the line as support later in October. Since then, the price of natural gas has not approached the 200-Day line. Therefore, given the indicator confluence around the 200-Day line, the expectation is for support to be seen. Moreover, although a decline below the line is a bearish sign. Natural gas has been falling since a high of $4.90 and it may run out of bearish momentum by the time it tests the 200-Day MA.

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Oil rises marginally on tariff exemption, Chinese crude imports
By: Reuters | April 14, 2025

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday on exemptions for some electronics from U.S. tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China’s crude imports in March, but gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.

Brent crude futures closed 12 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53.

Late on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.

Trump said on Sunday he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.

Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies has intensified.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.

"OPEC cutting its global demand forecast just underscores the troubled outlook we have here from the tariffs and all the other uncertainty in the market," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

"Markets are still continuing to sort out the impact of the tariffs and this escalation with China," Kilduff said.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.

It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.

UBS reduced its Brent forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68. At the same time, it expects WTI to trade at $64 a barrel. JPMorgan lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand.

The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply.

Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.

Iran and the U.S. held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week, officials said over the weekend.

Also hurting prices, South Bow detailed plans for a controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline on Monday after an oil leak last week forced it to shut the key conduit for crude oil between Canada and the United States.

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$WTIC $Oil #Energy - While we stayed cautious and capitalised I was looking for a tail on the Candle as it slipped the 'Bowl' & Tapped its 62/Fib...
By: Sahara | April 14, 2025

🔸 $WTIC $Oil #Energy - Update

While we stayed cautious and capitalised I was looking for a tail on the Candle as it slipped the 'Bowl' & Tapped its 62/Fib.

Which is exactly what we have. I wish to see it on the Mnthly for more assurance, tho for now I am remaining cautious and as you know have switched to scaling in long with stops under the lows...



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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025

🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 157.4k, down 32.5k.



Last week’s downward momentum continued until Wednesday this week when West Texas Intermediate crude found buyers at $55, where horizontal support goes back a couple of decades. If this was breached, the next layer of support would lie at low-$50s, and then low-$40s.

Wednesday, the crude printed $55.12 intraday, only to reverse higher to close the session at $62.35. By the end of the week, it closed at $61.50/barrel, down 0.8 percent for the week.

A rally is possible near term. The best that could happen for now is strength toward $65-$66, which was breached six sessions ago. This horizontal support goes back years, with buyers also having shown up there last September.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to April 4th decreased 122,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.458 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6th. Crude imports dropped as well, down 277,000 b/d to 6.2 mb/d. As did stocks of gasoline and distillates – down 1.6 million barrels and 3.5 million barrels respectively to 236 million barrels and 111.1 million barrels. Crude inventory, however, rose 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased seven-tenths of a percentage point to 86.7 percent.

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Money Managers dumped Brent Crude Oil last week at the fastest pace in history
By: Barchart | April 11, 2025

🔸 Money Managers dumped Brent Crude Oil last week at the fastest pace in history.



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$WTI - Crude oil dropped to its lowest level since February 2021 but closed the week with a long lower wick and a green candle...
By: CyclesFan | April 12, 2025

🔸 $WTI - Crude oil dropped to its lowest level since February 2021 but closed the week with a long lower wick and a green candle which indicates that next week could be an up week. This week's low may be an intermediate term low but it has to break out above 72.22 to confirm that.



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Commodities Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2025

🔸 Top Movers

Orange Juice (NYCE) Futures 5.68 %
Cocoa (NYCSCE) Futures 4.53 %
NY Copper Spot 4.3 %
NY Copper Futures 4.3 %
NY Silver COMEX Futures 3.74 %

🔸 Bottom Movers

Coconut Oil 4.81 %
NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 2.69 %
Gold / Silver Ratio 1.57 %
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 1.47 %
Tokyo Platinum Futures 1.21 %

*Close from the last completed Daily

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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2025

The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 6150 is immediately trading down about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 7172. Up to now, this market has been declining for 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 6522 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in April is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 7228 and it has broken last month's low falling to 5512 while it is still trading below last month's low of 6522.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during January. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2023 moving into 2025. Prominently, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6175 and support forming below at 5788. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 7th at 5512, which was down 12 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 13th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 13th reaching 7939 has exceeded the previous high of 7288 made back during the week of November 4th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 7th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 6653 for the past 20 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 20 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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Natural Gas Forms Bullish Pattern After Retesting Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 11, 2025

🔸 A failed breakdown and bullish hikkake pattern suggest natural gas may be reversing higher, with key resistance levels and Fibonacci targets coming into play.

Natural gas pulled back to retest support on Friday around the bottom of a descending trend channel and a 78.6% retracement level. Once a low of $3.39 was established buyers took back control and drove the price of natural gas back above Thursday’s low of $3.47. Notice that the lower channel line and 78.6% retracement are marking approximately the same potential support level today. The fact that two methods, including one dynamic trend indicator, mark the same potential support area is a bullish sign. And more so given the subsequent intraday advance that followed.



Forms Potentially Bullish Hammer

At the time of this writing, natural gas continues to trade above the midpoint of the day’s trading range and looks likely to end the day with a potentially bullish hammer or doji hammer candlestick pattern. The high for the day was $3.58. Earlier in the session a breakdown of an inside day pattern from Thursday triggered, resulting in a test of support as mentioned above. Since a potentially bullish one-day pattern followed, today’s closing price is likely to be above Thursday’s low of $3.47. This sets up a potentially bullish pattern heading into next week.

Three-Day Bullish Combo Forms

Nonetheless, it is not just today’s pattern that is potentially bullish, it is also the combination with the patterns of the prior two days. Since natural gas is likely to close inside yesterday’s range and in the top half of today’s price range, the bearish breakdown shows signs of a failed pattern. The three-candle combination is a potentially bullish hikkake pattern. It can be both a reversal or continuation pattern and it will trigger on a rally above Thursday’s high of $3.75.

However, an advance above today’s high can provide an earlier valid bullish signal regardless of the hikkake pattern being present. Given the three-period combination, it is a potentially powerful short-term pattern. Of course, a drop below today’s low is short-term bearish and indicates a failure of the potentially bullish pattern

Potential Resistance at 50-Day Moving Average

Initial upside targets start with the four-day high of $3.83 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.89. A declining trendline at the top of the channel may also be around the 50-Day line when approached, and it may provide clues. Subsequently, if an upside breakout of the downtrend line triggers the 50% retracement at $4.12 becomes a potential target, followed by an interim swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.26 and $4.30, respectively.

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Crude Oil Rebounds After Testing Long-Term Channel Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025

🔸 A sharp rebound after testing a long-term channel suggests crude oil may be stabilizing, though further volatility and support tests remain possible.

Crude oil completed a $25.53 or 31.6% decline from the most recent swing high of $80.76 on Wednesday, with a low of $55.23. That price level was a successful test of support at the lower line of a long-term descending parallel trend channel. Given the subsequent bullish reaction following the low it seems that the market recognized the price represented by the lower channel line. The subsequent intraday rally surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the internal downswing and got halfway to the 50% retracement at $63.86 on Thursday, today, and established a higher daily high of $63.45 and higher daily low of $58.86.



Volatility Likely to Continue

Given the significant increase in volatility seen since the start of the one-day bearish reversal last Thursday, volatility may continue for a while longer as the market digests the implications. Further tests of recent lows as support, if it occurs, should begin to provide some indication of what might come next. However, in general, since the lower end of the channel was reached, followed by a sharp bullish reversal and after a significant decline, it seems likely that a bottom, or close to a bottom has been established.

Additional Declines to Test Support Remains a Risk

Nonetheless, since the lower channel line is falling, additional tests of the line as support could occur below the $55.23 low. Therefore, a drop below that low may not see the same response as a continuation signal that occurs earlier in a trend. There is also potential support a little below Wednesday’s low at $55.00. That is the 127.2% (square root of 161.8%) extension of the bearish retracement starting from the 2023 peak of $95.50.

Largest Decline Since 2023

The current correction was the largest on a percentage basis since May 2023. It surpassed the two prior corrections that saw declines in the price of crude oil of 25.3% and 29%. Since the correction occurred along with a breakdown below long-term support and reached a 50-month low, it adds to a bearish thesis. However, that could take some time to play out and, in the meantime, it favors rallies to test prior support levels as resistance, or consolidation. A weekly closing price below the prior long-term support of $62.07 would further confirm a long-term breakdown on the weekly time frame.

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Natural Gas Faces Bearish Pressure Below Key Trendlines
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025

🔸 Despite recent buying near $3.34, natural gas struggles beneath resistance, and failure to rally above $3.88 could lead to a deeper corrective move.

Natural gas pulled back on Thursday, falling below Wednesday’s closing price to reach a low of $3.47. The low for the day was $3.47 and therefore natural gas is set to end the day with an inside-day pattern. It will also likely close below an uptrend line that is the bottom of a parallel trend channel (blue). At the time of this writing, natural gas continues to trade in the lower half of the day’s trading range and looks likely to close in a similar position.



Back Below Trendline

The likely daily close below the uptrend line is bearish, and more so since it follows a decline after finding resistance around a key short-term price zone. Wednesday’s high of $3.83 found resistance a little below the 50-Day MA, which had previously denoted as trend support. That is potentially bearish by itself as the progression of a bear trend typically rises to test prior support as resistance before it continues lower.

Also, notice that resistance was seen both yesterday and today around the middle line within the falling channel (red). There are also two prior interim price swing lows at $3.73 and $3.74, that now mark potential resistance. Finally, potential resistance around the 20-Week MA is at $3.71.

Bearish Continuation Remains a Risk

In other words, since a close below the trendline is bearish, and resistance was seen over several days in an area of confluence, there remains the potential for a bearish continuation of the corrective decline that followed the recent peak of $4.90. Moreover, a declining channel remains in place and natural gas continues to trade below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.

Therefore, although a rise above today’s would be a sign of strength given that the uptrend line and middle channel line would have been reclaimed, natural gas would be heading into prior consolidation and potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.88, and the 20-Day MA, at $3.92 currently. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) remains in a downtrend and may establish a lower swing high.

What Happens Next More Helpful

One or a few days more of price action should begin to clarify the developing patterns. A 78.6% retracement was completed yesterday on the way to support at $3.34. Since a sharp rally followed, it showed buyers back in charge. Therefore, new bullish signs, starting with a rally above today’s high, should be seen as follow-through to renewed strength. If not, indicated by a drop below $3.46 and $3.34, then further downside becomes likely.

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EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Of +57 Bcf Misses Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | April 10, 2025

Key Points:

🔸 Working gas in storage increased by +57 Bcf from the previous week.
🔸 At current levels, stocks are -40 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
🔸 Natural gas prices are moving lower after the release of the EIA report.

On April 10, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by +57 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +60 Bcf.


More information in our economic calendar

At current levels, stocks are -450 Bcf less that last year and -40 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.

Natural gas prices moved lower after the release of the EIA report. The storage build missed analyst estimates, but traders also focus on general outlook for the economy.

Oil markets and equity markets are under strong pressure in today’s trading session as traders continue to evaluate the recent moves on the tariff front. Tariffs on China remain intact, and traders worry that a trade war between the world’s biggest economies will hurt economic growth and put pressure on demand for energy.

From the technical point of view, natural gas did not manage to settle above the resistance at $3.70 – $3.75. If natural gas pulls back below the $3.60 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $3.35 – $3.40 range.

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The Economic Wall Around China. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 10, 2025

President Trump just built the great economic wall around China. After all the criticisms surrounding President’s Trump’s tariff war against our friends, by isolating China it is a reminder to our allies that perhaps the trade enemy was never the US that had the lowest tariff in the world but really against China. In fact, it might be a reminder to all our trade partners that they too have been treated unfairly by China who steals intellectual property puts on ridiculously high tariffs and creates barriers for them to trade in China. The move by President Trump to raise tariffs on China was so inspiring that it caused Goldman Sachs to rescind their recession calls because now they are starting to understand President Trump’s big picture strategy.

Trump set off a stock market buying short covering fire storm after he reported on Truth Social, “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully soon, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non-Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! What a nice, classy way to end that note. The world is paying attention.

Is the world going to start paying attention to oil inventories. Even though we love that oil prices came down reducing gasoline prices and inflation, we still must be concerned that the amount of the drop could cause some U.S. shale oil production. The son of shale pioneer, Scott Sheffield, the founder and former chief executive officer (CEO) of Pioneer Natural Resources, Bryan Sheffield, warned that America’s shale drillers need to cut drilling immediately. He said it’s a bloodbath and that shale producers need to hunker down until this tariff war situation plays out. Mr. Sheffield is understandably concerned about the recurring price drops, noting that producers often maintain production levels despite fluctuations in market prices. Several other producers I consulted expressed similar worries, pointing out that producers sometimes fail to adjust their output quickly enough in response to price changes, resulting in overproduction.

Other producers believe that some shale producers will be more cautious. Andy Stauffer of “Ozark Gas LLC” mentioned that volatility has occurred before, and he thinks producers will take a careful approach before cutting drilling. Others suggest that cutting should begin sooner and that shale oil producers may be overly optimistic about prospects. Despite the volatility, supply and demand indicate that supplies in the United States remain tight, as confirmed by yesterday’s Energy Information Administration weekly report. The Short-Term Energy outlook was not released yesterday because the numbers are being updated to reflect recent market developments.

Yet the volatility beyond all the tariff report was very friendly for petroleum. EIA Reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are the same as the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels a day, down by 1.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 7.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Natural gas is also bouncing back on the risk on situation with more countries committing to buy US natural gas. This is going to be a huge win for producers. Natural gas report today!

Once again, I want to thank all the loyal readers of the Energy Report for your kind comments and input! Starting tomorrow I will be traveling until Easter Monday so I wish you all the best and will resume the reports then. I hope everyone has a happy and Blessed Easter. The Energy Report will take a bit of a hiatus, but we’ll be back ready to rock!

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Natural Gas Rebounds After Pullback to Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 9, 2025

• Natural gas reversed higher after hitting key support, forming a bullish outside day, but needs to close above $3.78 to confirm breakout momentum.

Natural gas fell to a new corrective low of $3.34 on Wednesday before turning up and triggering a one-day bullish reversal. The decline completed a 78.6% retracement at $3.40 before the bulls took back control. A bullish outside day was subsequently established and a two-day high of $3.83. During the advance natural gas rose above potential resistance around an uptrend line and a previous interim swing low and potential resistance at $3.73 (B). A daily close above Tuesday’s high of $3.78 will confirm the one-day breakout. Furthermore, a closing price above $3.73 will show strength but not as much as a close above Tuesdays high.



Resistance Seen Below 50-Day Moving Average

The day’s high of $3.83 attempted to test the 50-Day MA as resistance following a daily close below line last Friday. Although the recovery above the trendline is positive, the 50-Day line needs to be reclaimed if natural gas is going to have a chance to further strengthen. There is also the 20-Day MA that is a little higher at $3.94. Since the 20-Day line is falling there is the potential for it to drop below the 50-Day line. That would be a bearish sign if it is sustained.

Quick Recover Above Trendline

Since natural gas recovered the trendline in less than two days, and it followed a retracement to a key 78.6% retracement level, an eventual advance to test resistance around the downtrend line seems likely, at a minimum. Notice that support was found yesterday at the lower channel line, and it was again tested today with a brief undercut of the lower channel.

Moreover, although the middle line (dashed) of the channel was exceeded today, natural gas may close at or slightly below that line. If it does so, it will be the second day that the middle line was recognized. Notice that Tuesday’s low found support at the lower end of the channel.

Daily Close Above 20-Day Moving Average Needed for Bulls

Until there is a daily close above the 20-Day MA and the top falling trendline, there remains the possibility that bearish correction has not completed, and further tests of lows could occur. Another drop below the trendline would indicate that it was not successfully tested as support, reflecting continued underlying downward pressure.

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Crude Inventories Rise By 2.6 Million Barrels; Oil Markets Remain Under Strong Pressure
By: Vladimir Zernov | April 9, 2025

Key Points:

• Gasoline inventories declined by -1.6 million barrels.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 396.4 million barrels to 396.7 million barrels.
• Domestic oil production decreased from 13.58 million bpd to 13.458 million bpd.

On April 9, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by +2.6 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +2.2 million barrels.


More information in our economic calendar

Total motor gasoline inventories declined by -1.6 million barrels, compared to analyst forecast of -1.7 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week.

U.S. crude oil imports declined by 277,000 bpd from the previous week, averaging 6.2 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million bpd.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 396.4 million barrels to 396.7 million barrels. The U.S. continues to buy oil for strategic reserves, but replenishes them at a moderate pace despite the recent pullback in oil prices.

Domestic oil production decreased from 13.58 million bpd to 13.458 million bpd. It should be noted that production fell below the psychologically important 13.5 million bpd level.

WTI oil is trying to settle below the $56.50 level as traders react to the EIA report. It remains to be seen whether traders will focus on falling U.S. oil production as China introduced 84% tariffs on U.S. goods.

Brent oil pulled back below the $60.00 level as traders remained focused on tariff drama.

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China Slowdown. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 9, 2025

It could be the greatest economic showdown in history. The world’s largest economy is standing up for free trade in the world and while turmoil is raising concerns about a global economic slowdown, the reality is we’re seeing a readjustment to the global economy that could sharply reduce inflation, lower interest rates and get the government’s debt of the United States under control. President Trump slapped a 104% tariff on China over and above existing tariffs. Why, you might you ask? Because China dared to retaliate against the United States for standing up for free trade, not to mention the protection of intellectual property rights, but I digress.

Stock markets that were recovering yesterday on reports that countries were willing to negotiated soaring as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business that President Trump “going to be directly involved in those negotiations”. The Treasury secretary said he hadn’t seen any specific offer from Japan but told Kudlow that, “50, 60, maybe almost 70 countries” have gotten in contact with the Trump administration looking to negotiate.

Stocks then plummeted in one of the biggest reversals in the S&P 500 futures history, on reports that China would not back down, raising concerns of a global economic slowdown. Yet while the panic is still running rampant there are things that the Federal Reserve could do to calm the waters, so it is not all doom and gloom. For example, cut interest rates! Are you out there Jerome? And there is the possibility that China could actually be blinking in this economic showdown even as it was announced China decided to respond by adding an 84% tariff on us goods.

Elizabeth MacDonald of Fox Business reported that that Dow, S&P, Nasdaq futures all turning around now as China calls for dialogue on tariffs and trade. Nasdaq futures are now in the green, others down fractionally. EMAC said that the, “rapid spike in 10-year and reports indicate that hedge funds have been selling substantial amounts of U.S. Treasury holdings. This is largely due to the unwinding of the “basis trade,” a leveraged arbitrage strategy that exploits price differences between treasury bonds and their futures contracts. Now she says that, “China’s top leaders have scheduled an emergency meeting to address economic concerns and stabilize capital markets. According to MacDonald this marks the first public high-level gathering since the tariff escalation.

Attendees will include members of the Chinese State Council and key regulatory bodies such as the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, and commerce and securities regulators. Discussions are expected to focus on strategies to boost domestic consumption, support capital markets, and potentially introduce export tax rebates. No talk yet if dropping tariffs or trade barriers. China so far only offering existing tariff exemptions.

China’s stimulus package may provide temporary relief, but a deeper issue remains: China’s economy heavily relies on exporting goods to the United States. Although many may dislike the market turmoil, early indications suggest that the trade war is addressing some of the United States economy’s significant issues. One major concern for US consumers has been inflation, which has reached levels unseen since the 1970s.

Paul Volcker faced criticism for raising interest rates, causing initial discomfort, but ultimately helping to reduce inflation and increase consumer savings. Inflation diminishes prosperity for Americans, and if it can be controlled, the trade war might prove beneficial. Consumers will be getting big savings at the gas pump, that’s for sure. Yet with gas there is always a “but”.

That “but” was a report that the Keystone oil pipeline had to be shut down on Tuesday because of a leak in North Dakota. Some are concerned that the shutdown of the pipeline if it’s for an extended period of time could halt the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canadian refineries to US refineries which could lead to higher gasoline prices.

Now there are some people that are saying that Saudi Arabia’s lowering the oil price to regain market share is trying to take advantage of the market turmoil and put pressure on the US producers. Most producers break even on the average estimated to be somewhere around $60.00 a barrel. Today, while different basins have different break evens, the reality is that we’re already seeing signs that we could see some cutbacks in cap ex. Is OPEC going to try to steal that market share. Stay tuned.

The American Petroleum Institute’s oil inventory data from yesterday would typically provide some support. The API reported a reduction in crude oil inventories by 1.057 million barrels from the previous week. Cushing, OK inventories increased by 636,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 207,000 barrels, but distillate inventories experienced a notable decline of 1.844 million barrels. This decrease is attributed to the cold winter and the chilly start to spring, which forced refiners to continue producing distillate to replenish supplies.

Natural gas prices declined partly due to increasing competition with coal. Fox News reported that President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to boost coal production amid rising electricity demand. In the United States coal remains the third most used energy source, following natural gas and nuclear power.

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$WTIC $Oil #Energy - Dropped back into the channel...
By: Sahara | April 9, 2025

• $WTIC $Oil #Energy - Dropped back into the channel.

If it fails to turn leaving only a tail, it will likely continue on the downward path I showed prior.

I have enhanced the shaded Spprt Bands (Grey) that show Probable end of the world as we know it targets...



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Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Despite Oversold Conditions
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025

• A 48-month low and technical symmetry suggests crude oil may be near at least a short-term bottom, though continued weakness remains possible without a confirmed bullish reversal.

Crude oil triggered a continuation of its bearish correction on Tuesday, falling to a new 48-month low of $58.06, at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the lows of the day and will likely end in a bearish position, near the lows of the day. The high for the day was $61.88. Notice that crude is now testing support around the lower line of a declining trend channel.

That line is the 50% extension of the original channel bordered by blue trendlines. It may represent support but is too early to say. Furthermore, there are similarities between the current full decline from the January high at $80.76, and previous larger downswings when measured on a percentage basis.



Measured Moves Matched

As shown on the chart, there have been two previous large downswings since the 2023 peak of $95.50. The first (A) found a bottom after a 29% price correction and the second ended after a 25.3% decline. As of this week’s low, the current bearish correction has crude oil down by 28%. Once there is symmetry between the swings, there is a chance for signs of support and the completion of the correction. It is another piece of technical evidence identifying a potential short-term low in crude oil.

Reaching Oversold Conditions

The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to oversold levels and the test of support near the lower end of the trend channel is also a sign that the price of crude may be oversold. Nonetheless, selling pressure remains as the closing price today will be a new low for the bearish correction.

Upside Potential?

I decisive advance above Tuesday’s high of $61.88 would be needed for signs of strength that may continue. Once the lower blue channel line is exceeded to the upside the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.57 becomes a target. Also, Monday’s high at $64.05 is close by. If strength can be maintained above that level, the next higher target zone is around previous price support and the 50% retracement level at $65.41 to $65.27, respectively.

Since that price zone may have greater significance given the previous long-term support level (now resistance), it looks like there is a good chance it is reached if there is a bullish reversal before new lows. Then, after the 50% level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.37 and the 20-Day MA, now at $67.69, become the next upside target.

Bearish Continuation would Target $57.21

On the downside, the next lower price zone identified for potential support is from $57.21 to $56.37. Crude is well on its way to reaching the price zone and therefore it may do so, and it may be soon.

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Natural Gas Extends Losses Below Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025

• Natural gas broke trend support, reinforcing a bearish continuation pattern that now targets deeper support levels as momentum remains bearish near session lows.

A bearish continuation in natural gas was triggered on Tuesday as it fell to a new corrective low $3.46, and below an uptrend line, with conviction. Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks set to end the day in a similar position. A continuation of the bearish correction looks likely given today’s decline and the recent drop below the 50-Day MA and prior interim swing lows around $3.73 (B).



May be Heading To 200-Day Moving Average

The next lower target is the 78.6% retracement at $3.40. However, there is a better-defined potential support zone from $3.08 to $2.98, consisting of the initial 100% target for a falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing beginning in August 2024. Also, within that price zone is the next lower trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.04, and a prior swing high and symmetrical triangle breakout level of $3.02.

Monthly Bearish Signal

The monthly chart (not shown) is supportive of further downside as a one-month bearish reversal triggered this month. Support from March is at $3.16 and there could be some signs of support around the price level. Moreover, another bearish monthly signal would be generated on a drop below March. A bearish monthly signal especially increases the chance that the lower potential support level noted above may be reached before the current bearish correction is complete.

Bearish Correction Could Fall Farther Than Expected

If natural gas ends up falling below $2.98 and staying below it, sellers may remain in charge down to the $2.77 price zone or lower. That is the 127.2% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern. A daily close below $2.98 would signal a bearish reversal of the advance that began from the August 2024 interim swing low.

The late-January higher swing low at $2.99 is part of the price structure of that trend therefore a drop below that price level would violate the integrity of the uptrend. Additionally, there appears to be potential support around a long-term uptrend line (purple) originating from the April 2024 swing low. It identifies the next lower trend support area below the 200-Day MA. In general, once one trendline is broken, the next lower line becomes a potential target.

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$WTIC $Oil #Energy - Stay Cautious...
By: Sahara | April 8, 2025

• $WTIC $Oil #Energy - Stay Cautious

While at a key Spprt-Zone we've not had a bullish signals as yet. A 'Doji' Candle Yesterday (Outside its Lwr-BB) Tho we need a follow up candle for a pot'l long entry.

And then one must have a tight stop below yesterdays low as there are still dangers lurking...



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Direct Talks. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 8, 2025

Calmness and reality are returning to the market as traders recognize that President Donald Trump’s trade war may lead to peace and prosperity. Many countries are eager to make deals with the United States, acknowledging their dependence on its economy. Additionally, there is historic movement between the United States and Iran, as President Trump has encouraged direct talks regarding a final nuclear settlement.

Trump’s actions have made it clear to Iran that their support of terror will not be tolerated. President Trump secured direct talks with Iran, a first since the Iranian revolution. Reports that the direct talks between the US and Iran should reduce the risk premium in oil was propped up by chatter that the US and Israel was on the verge of attacking Iran.

Energy groups want the Trump Administration to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated plans to proceed. The urgency is due to oil prices approaching break-even for many shale producers, causing concern over reduced CapEx for US producers.

Trade war reports caused high volatility yesterday but now the markets are able to put some of these trade war fears in perspective. Fox News reported that CNBC was forced to issue an on-air correction after it amplified a viral falsehood that President Donald Trump was considering a “pause” on his widespread tariffs.

Reuters reported that Trump said he would impose an additional 50% duty on U.S. imports from China on Wednesday if it did not withdraw the 34% tariffs it had imposed on U.S. products last week. Those Chinese tariffs had come in response to 34% “reciprocal” duties announced by Trump. Beijing responded with defiance. Trump’s threat was a “typical move of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said. “We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” he added. “China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of U.S. goods, including soybeans, nuts and sausages, though other potential items like bourbon whiskey were left off the list, according to a document seen by Reuters. Officials said they stood ready to negotiate a “zero for zero” deal with Trump’s administration. “Sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiation table with the U.S. and find a mutually acceptable compromise,” EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said at a news conference.

Many countries are willing to compromise, acknowledging the United States’ low tariffs. However, abuses from other trading partners have led to significant trade deficits in the US. Actions have been taken to address these issues, aiming to eliminate waste and fraud in government spending. The Department of Government Efficiency plays a role in continuing to reduce waste and fraud while improving government operations.

Government efficiency should go beyond addressing waste and fraud. The Department of Government Efficiency, with its smart and tech-savvy personnel, must review all government reporting agencies. Accurate reports from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Energy Information Administration, and the US Department of Agriculture are crucial for the economy. Providing these agencies with the necessary tools to produce precise data will benefit businesses and the global economy. Additionally, it’s vital to remove political biases from these reports, ensuring they serve their true purpose of providing reliable information.

While the stock market recovers, oil prices are declining. The crack spreads indicate no recession is imminent, supported by the bond yield curve. Don’t be swayed by recession fears; look for opportunities.

We anticipate oil prices will recover slightly, not dramatically. Tonight’s American Petroleum Institute report on oil inventories should show seasonal market strength. Meanwhile, the drop in gasoline prices benefits American consumers, offsetting the seasonal blend spike.

Are You Kidding Me! Today is April 8th, and the morning temperature was 18°. There is a forecast for snow next week. This late cold spell may impact efforts to reach normal levels of natural gas storage. Additionally, more countries are planning to buy natural gas from the United States as a response to President Trump’s trade policies. Taiwan and Japan have both offered to increase their purchases of liquefied natural gas. It is important to monitor the weather conditions.

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Natural Gas Risks Deeper Pullback Toward Key Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | April 7, 2025

• Natural gas fell below $3.73 and is testing a key uptrend line, with a breakdown potentially targeting strong support between $3.08 and $2.99.

Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Monday as it dropped below a prior interim swing low at $3.73. At the time of this writing, natural gas reached a low of $3.61 for the day and it continues to trade near the lows of the day and may still go lower. However, the day’s low tested potential support around an internal uptrend line. So far it is holding but given the likely weak daily closing price, a breakdown below the line could trigger.



Outlook Weakens Below Trendline

If a breakdown below the trendline triggers and it is sustained, the bearish decline may continue to lower potential support areas. A key potential trend support level is around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.03. It turns out that a prior interim swing high of $3.02 from October previously signaled a bull breakout of a large symmetrical triangle and the continuation of a developing uptrend. It would not be unusual to see another test of support around that initial breakout level, or an attempt.

Return to 200-Day MA Looks Possible

Following a reclaim of the 200-Day MA in September last year there was one initial pullback that successfully tested support around the 200-Day line. That low was followed by a steady rise that eventually reached the current trend high and 2025 high of $4.90. Also, following an initial upside breakout through $3.02, natural gas eventually pulled back and successfully found support around the $3.02 price area at the end of January. Since the 200-Day MA has converged around the $3.02 price level, it may act like a magnet if the trendline is broken.

Support Zone Shows Confluence from $3.08

Furthermore, there is also an initial target for a falling ABCD at $3.08. That target expands the potential support zone from around $3.08 to $2.99. The lower value is the interim swing low from late January. It adds to the potential significance of the support zone since it points to a similar price area.

Since the 50-Day MA was broken to the downside again last Friday, the 200-Day line becomes a potential target. Also, if the trendline also fails as support, the next lower trendline becomes an eventual target. This doesn’t mean that either of the lines will be reached, but it does reflect intensifying selling pressure.

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$WTIC $Oil #Energy - Slipped below $60...
By: Sahara | April 7, 2025

• $WTIC $Oil #Energy - Slipped below $60

Recall my Target at $58 I showed which has not been hit. Tho going back to this chart the $59.50 Target has.

Note the Old Res-Trendline which has acted as Spprt since the B/Out. Failure will aim for those Lwr Targets down to $50.60...



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Crude Oil plunges below 60 for the first time in 4 years
By: Barchart | April 6, 2025

• Crude Oil

Crude plunges below 60 for the first time in 4 years.



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