IMO, Pemex:
1. Needs a new Director
2. Requires Private Investment to complete sorely needed projects
AMLO's plan to back Pemex has been an abject failure.
https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/opinion/La-Tia-Pemex-esta-en-terapia-intensiva-20230921-0143.html

It's a Twitter account

@Programa_Istmo 9/18
The rebirth of #IstmoDeTehuantepec begins!
The #CorredorInteroceánico promotes a future of development and prosperity for the inhabitants of the southeast and the rest of Mexico.

Can’t translate, but looks like the real deal to me.

A ver mi gente, eso es SUPER FAKE.

Ni siquiera así es la firma del inquilino temporal de cierto Palacio virreinal. https://t.co/s9cFtduCvQ

— Gonzalo Monroy (@GMonroyEnergy) August 15, 2023

Sorry guys, I just saw the group come in and thought it was them. Wishful thinking. I’ll be more careful.

I had the same thought. Tried to consider age progression to no avail.

But hard to argue that a guy by that name works for AMLO.

Hey Penny, I don't know if this is the right guy, but a Jorge Eduardo Olivares Suarez works for Gobierno De Mexico. He appears to be involved in both Real Estate and teaching labor skills.

Hey guys. FWIW - I found some language relative to the “Flag” discussion in an unrelated article:

"Three years ago the starting flag was given for the construction of the Maya Train..."

https://politica.expansion.mx/mexico/2023/05/23/congreso-excluido-de-informacion-sobre-tren-maya

Cancun, Quintana Roo; November 16, 2021 - Next June the train that will connect the Pacific with the Atlantic must be ready, which will detonate the region's economy, since the project includes the construction of 10 industrial parks, which will capture trade between Asia and the East Coast of the United States, said Rafael Marín Mollinedo…

American entrepreneurs support this project, they are even interested in integrating into investments in the Isthmus. We have companies willing to invest $500 million in each park.”

"Only for the train the project is 50 billion pesos. Apart from road access, in charge of the SCT, the pipeline, which will be carried out by the CFE, fiber optics, in short, are several organizations involved, with a public investment of 100 billion, and more than 200 billion, private
http://www.caribenews.com.mx/2021/11/16/en-junio-proximo-quedaria-unido-el-pacifico-con-el-atlantico-via-ferrea/

Thanks Penny. Good to read.

Mexican Congress approved the 2022 budget today which includes increased funding for AMLO's Megaprojects: Maya Train. New Airport & The Isthmus. (Opposing parties had attempted to reduce those expenditures)

6 Days Ago:
Among the differences that stand out in the Alternate Expenditure Budget is the reduction of the budget assigned to López Obrador’s megaprojects: the Felipe Angeles International Airport (AIFA), la Refinery from Mexican oil (Pemex) which is built in dos Bocas, Tabasco, the Maya Trend and the Interoceanic Corridor from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
https://today.in-24.com/News/566091.html

Today:
Chamber of Deputies approves in general and particular Expenditure Budget 2022
The project endorsed by the Lower House of the Congress of the Union during the first hours this Sunday, contemplates a total net expenditure of 7 billion 88 billion pesos for 2022.
It contemplates millionaire cuts to autonomous bodies and powers, while it increases allocations to social programs and famous works of the current federal government, such as the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and the Maya Trend.
https://www.arout.net/chamber-of-deputies-approves-in-general-and-particular-expenditure-budget-2022/

It's not a PO, but at least they have funding...

All it says to me LiveFree is that AMLO is very committed to completing the Isthmus Project. (He asked Mollinedo to turn down the potential Governor seat to complete the project). Since it includes both Nat Gas pipelines and Crude Oil pipelines, I was hoping MRGE would participate in one or the other, or both. We'll see.

Rafael Marín Mollinedo is not going for the nomination of Morena to compete for the candidacy for the governor of Quintana Roo in the 2022 elections. @macronews

Marin Mollinedo, current general director of the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, informed this media that he was asked to stay in the project, so he abandoned his aspirations to fight to be the standard-bearer of MORENA.

Thanks for sharing, Stink. The other attribute about Brasil that I felt was meaningful is the ability for MX to create their own arbitrage market for Nat Gas. For example, they'd be in a sweet spot right now if they had filled Brasil up a year ago. 2X, 3X, or 4X their asset value in a year - just like Bitcoin! That leverage would also change the negotiation dynamic going forward, whereas the VeraCruz cavern will still leave them in a very vulnerable position. I'm not from the industry so this could be way off-base, but it was part of the thesis for my investment.

His recent PR would indicate otherwise.

Macod and I discussed this last December on the hub, right after Sener posted their build plan which showed the salt cavern Southwest of Coatzacoalcos.

I'm hoping Prudhomme heard the "storage facility is imminent" and he made the assumption it was the one in the plan. If someone was leaking info to him, they might not have mentioned Campo Brasil. I know it's a reach, but I still believe Ward is going to bring this home for us.

Speaking Tuesday at the U.S.-Mexico LDC Forum in San Antonio, TX, Gadex consultant Eduardo Prud’homme said “good discussions” were underway with a developer to build a salt dome storage facility in Veracruz. “It’s very probable we will hear about it soon,” he said.
The storage project would have capacity to store 6 Bcf/d of natural gas, or about the equivalent of a typical day of pipeline imports from the United States. Sistrangas system operator Cenagas would be able to access 600 MMcf/d, Prud’homme said, and the facility could be ready to go as early as 2023.
Mexico’s Energy Ministry (Sener) has previously said the salt cavern storage option would serve the central and southern zones of the country. It would take an estimated two years to develop and require $318-481 million in investment.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/veracruz-salt-dome-natural-gas-storage-project-said-probable-mexico-spotlight/

Great stuff Penny. Thanks much!

Penny - I naively thought (hoped) that MRGE would be acquired immediately after the deal announcements. (Take any "sell" decisions out of our hands). It's become increasingly clear that we'll possibly see two or three separate announcements over time. The game theory and stock price action will be fascinating to watch and participate in: Do you sell any, some or all after the first announcement? After the second announcement? If you're willing to share, how many announcements fit into your 85% to 90% probability?

Always appreciate your insights Penny. Thanks.
AMLO said today that his three major projects: Train Maya, the new Airport and the Isthmus will be completed by the end of his term. September '24 is closing in on him rapidly. I'm hoping AMLO's urgency syncs up with Mike Ward's PR.

After a plenary session of more than 4 hours, parliamentary groups from Morena, PVEM and PT agreed to defer the approval of the electricity reform to April 15, 2022

https://www.reforma.com/aplicacioneslibre/preacceso/articulo/default.aspx?__rval=1&urlredirect=https://www.reforma.com/difieren-reforma-electrica-para-el-2022/ar2290515?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=robotgr&utm_content=@reformanacional&referer=--7d616165662f3a3a613b767a3a--

As of late, the Electric Reform is all that AMLO, CFE and SENER seem to talk about. I hope this delay will allow them to work on more important initiatives for the country....like our projects!

Nothing of consequence in this report that I could find, but the % of Nat Gas they’re importing is off the charts, and expected to grow even higher. Winter approaching, still no storage. What are they waiting for?

https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/675086/Prontuario_septiembre_2021.pdf

The SEC requirement for material reporting is 4 days:
https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersform8khtm.html

Hard to say ST. Key Isthmus initiatives seem to have stagnated under Mollinedo (like everything in MX), and a "new face" with something to prove might be helpful. (Mollinedo said he would finalize the remaining two poles of development in September, for example, and that didn't happen).

This could be the catalyst we've been waiting for. It's logical to think that Mollinedo and AMLO would want this important project to be completely defined before he moves on. Mollinedo's deep entrenchment with the indigenous groups along the CIIT is not something that can be replicated quickly, and AMLO is running out of time.

The bigger question is who might replace Mollinedo? Alejandro Murat's former right hand guy, Pedro Matar, seems like a logical choice, but he's moved on to the Coordinator General of International Relations job. Francisco Garcia (@PacoPiza9) was also involved in a lot of Isthmus meetings, but he's been quiet lately. Alfonso Romo would be a great choice from our perspective, but he's likely too business-friendly for AMLO's taste and this is a Social project to a large degree. (Romo would probably be the best choice for securing commercial deals in the development poles). Adan Augusto Lopez is another trusted Tabasco buddy of AMLO, but he was recently promoted to Secretary of the Interior in MX.

CFE's Socialist Electric Reform has taken center stage as of late. I'm hoping the impending departure of Mollinedo will trigger our long-awaited announcement. All, IMO.

Their words, not mine...

Rafael Marín Mollinedo, there is 99% who no longer be the owner of the Interoceanic Corridor. Don Rafael will not leave don Andrés Manuel's great project "for bad", of course not!, don Rafael will leave the project of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, because it is a fact that he will win the MORENA survey for the governorship of Quintana Roo. The election in Quintana Roo is on the first Sunday of June 2022, so don Rafael could be leaving office at the end of the year or around February 2022. The "Interoceanic Corridor" will lose an honest and professional man, but the inhabitants of Quintana Roo will win an excellent governor. Marín, is the "brother" of the President of the Republic. AMLO for Raphael: "Raphael is an honest and decent man, who is unable to steal"

https://municipiosur.com/2021/10/28/rafael-marin-mollinedo-existe-un-99-que-deje-de-ser-el-titular-del-corredor-interoceanico-don-rafael-no-dejara-el-gran-proyecto-de-don-andres-manuel-por-malo-claro-que-no/

For what it’s worth: Ken Salazar reappears and talks about American investment in the southeast
The US ambassador talked about the possibility of US companies investing in southeastern Mexico.
The US ambassador, Kenneth Salazar went this Thursday to the Tabasco Government Palace, where he gave a press conference with Governor Carlos Manuel Merino Campos.
After unexpectedly withdrawing from the meeting with leaders of the south-southeast region that took place in Villahermosa, due to medical problems, the diplomat talked about the achievements achieved at that meeting. Both agreed that there are "somes" (existing possibilities) for US investors to land projects in these entities over the coming years, so permanent approaches will be made to transform ideas and plans into “facts.”

It was even anticipated that the next meeting would take place in Yucatán, where the governors of Oaxaca, Campeche, Quintana Roo, Veracruz and Chiapas are also expected to attend.

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/2021/10/21/reaparece-ken-salazar-y-habla-de-inversion-estadounidense-en-el-sureste/ are also expected to attend.

Tremendous Airchair! Thanks for your initiative and for updating the group with some solid DD.

I choose to believe the filing delay is actually a positive sign. IF he inked a deal he would have to disclose it in the filing and that is not an option given AMLO's ego and Mexican politics. I also believe there will not be an opportunity to buy again once an announcement is made because I suspect it will be concurrent with the sale of the business at x per share. Michael Ward has not returned my call and I have never spoken with him. I just can't see Mirage executing a project like this if they are awarded it. All just my optimistic opinion.

Nearly a $900.00 candle! That is one heck of a big buy. Nice!

Thanks Macod - back at ya! After staring at .12 again today, I added another chunk. Couldn't help myself....and that NGI article sure sounds like MRGE to me.

Mexico Natural Gas Market Calls for Storage Capacity, Sees Demand Soaring Over Next Decade

Underground storage capacity would allow the market to respond to “diverse situations that put the Sistrangas balance at risk,” according to Cenagas. “In this sense, delineating a storage strategy, in conjunction with the energy ministry, that prioritizes the development and execution of infrastructure, is one of the principal challenges.”

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/mexico-natural-gas-market-calls-for-storage-capacity-sees-demand-soaring-over-next-decade/

Thanks Juancy, it's great to see all the press lately.

Someone on the board said they can't believe all parties are this good at keeping a secret. I tend to agree, but with reporters from multiple publications now checking sources from every angle, something's bound to come out soon, IMO. Maybe we should send the MRGE one-pager around to see who picks it up and runs with it.

Agree on all points Penny. Seeing the Chiapas segment included in the article locked it for me.

Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said a natural gas pipeline connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts is set to go ahead. The 320 MMcf/d Jaltipan-Santa Cruz pipeline would cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, the narrowest strip of land in Mexico, between the two coasts.
The corridor project would link the deepwater ports of Coatzacoalcos and Salina Cruz on either side of the 77-mile isthmus. It also would include a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility proposed for Salina Cruz.
The pipeline is estimated to cost about $434.8 million and be developed by CFE, which holds most of the natural gas capacity in the country. U.S. producers would be the principal suppliers.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/amlo-touts-isthmus-natural-gas-pipeline-as-u-s-imports-swell/

Where do I send the dog turds…

Still T. Per Macod's post - AMLO said last Thursday that he's going to the Isthmus in 15 - 20 days, in part to review the gas pipeline, so I'm still hoping for something this month. 15 days would be August 27th and 20 days would be September 1st. I know the dates and the announcement are still speculative, but IMO we have to be getting close. There won't be an "Ecosystem for the Industrial Parks" without a nat gas pipeline. Regarding volume - It appears that we're all happy to hold at this point and perhaps the brokerage stop signs have limited buying interest.

Programa Istmo on Twitter:
The acquisition of the properties for the #PolosDeDesarrollo continues!
For this reason, free, prior and informed indigenous consultations were held in Ciudad Ixtepec, San Blas Atempa and Santa María Mixtequilla del # IstmoOaxaqueño.
Check the advance and find out!

There's a video that refers to Ecosystem for Industrial Production. I don't speak Spanish, but I think it's mostly a promotional piece. Regardless, if AMLO is visiting in the next two weeks as he said, I think it's encouraging.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Programa_Istmo/status/1427251898499756035

Billy Jahoda - Your msg to Nahle & AMLO is hilarious:

Replying to
@SENER_mx
and
@lopezobrador_
Sir, with all do respect, your surplus is such because you lack pipelines to transport much need NG to areas that sorely need it. In fact your “surplus” is merely a mirage! Did i say mirage? Mirage energy!
1:09 PM · Aug 12, 2021

I think on-chain analyst Willy Woo has it dialed in: Bitcoin price would need to move to $53k to address the demand/supply imbalance in the market. @woonomic

Andyman - This might be what you were referring to: Rafael Marin indicated on 6/26 (one month ago) the remaining properties are close to being finalized.

“We are going to leave all the infrastructure ready and prepared for everything that is going to be developed, at the same time we already have the logistics spaces and the industrial parks, we have identified the 10 properties where the industrial parks will be established, 4 are already owned by us. One is in the process of purchasing and the other 5 are communal ejidal property that we have already reached an agreement, but in September we will have to finish the purchase process, ”he said.
Therefore, in the properties that are already owned by CIIT, companies must begin to build this year, so that by 2023 they will already be operating.