TTE,

I would love to be a fly on the wall during all of today’s one-on-one meetings in Amarin’s hotel room. Guessing KM will be a bit stressed come presentation time.

Amen.

BO $12 year end or 1Q23

Once the pricing of several large EU markets are known, I expect a peak revenue estimate to be at least $1B for all of the EU. Rest of world, including USA, another $1B peak. Takeout at 3x $2B peak revs. $12

Note, according to a note from the II #1 biotech analyst from Evercore ISI, Umer Raffat, PFE paid about 4x his peak revenue estimate for Monday’s deal.

Kiwi,

I don’t see you spreading FUD and I fully support your adding to your position at these levels.

IMO, AMRN is in a downward spiral due to its own news vacuum (awaiting EU decisions, Mitigate…), while generics and Covid policies effect US revenues, multiplied by overall small cap biotech weakness in a rising rate environment.

My background and training has always been fundamental, but I’ve learned many a lesson that technicals do have a voice. I enjoy reading FFS opinions on AMRN.

For what it’s worth, I’ve found that the technician at ISI has been spot on at the macro level. He’s been saying that our right head and shoulder break will take us to 3800 and maybe 3600 (worst case) on the SP500.

Hopefully AMRN has already been scalped enough, if he is correct on the macro?

As previously stated, I’m an AMRN bull with a share count in the 100s of thousands.

Best,
x BLK BK

None that I’m aware, Goldman $4 is the lowest I recall.

AMRN earnings to be reported this week

IMO, Probably a yawn!!

But here’s a summary from the SVB Leerink preview:

AMRN - Roanna previewed the qtr / key factors to watch this yr. Continue to believe that the stock is undervalued as investors may be focusing on near-term headwinds and under-appreciating the long-term ~$1B Europe Vazkepa oppt. Cautiously optimistic that Vazkepa sales could inflect in 2H22 as reimb decisions and launches occur in Euro mkts. Near term, we tempered our EU Vazkepa forecast given new wave of COVID-19 cases in Germany, and updated US Vascepa forecast to reflect greater share erosion from US generics. Reit OP. $10 PT.

Eating a Wendy’s Baconnator egg sandwich and a large coke 2 hours before my doctors appointment did the trick!!

Trigs 162
LDL 59
Total Cholesterol 132

Now hope the PA goes through!!

Thanks RAF, especially for using your last post of the day!!

I remember that quote but that would certainly change lipids as well.

I was thinking that lots of coke would hopefully equal the sugar content of the ice cream and chocolate syrup in the shake, but not change cholesterol without the milk and ice cream.

I just don’t know how quickly the body metabolizes soda to know how much to drink and how close to blood draw to maximize trigs.

Trying to be stealth as I don’t think doc would be to happy.

Thanks again

Advise needed.

Visiting primary next week for annual physical. I want a V script. He”s a cardiologist and we’ve discussed the benefits in past visits. Unfortunately my trigs are too low and my plan requires a PA. How can I juice up my trigs, preferably without messing up cholesterol and other metrics. (Will be fasting).

I was thinking at least 32oz+ of CocaCola in the 3 hours leading up to visit.

Thoughts? Thanks!!

69034

Analyst report summary


AMRN -

Convos/ w/ Cardios / PCPs from Germany indicated Vazkepa could address a key unmet need in those hypertriglyceridemia / high CV risk...Work supports Roanna's view that Vazkepa could achieve ~$1B peak sales in Europe. Convos underscore key points from prior EU survey suggesting that: (1) many HTG patients remain at high risk of having a major adverse cardiac event; (2) physicians like Vazkepa’s ability to meaningfully lower triglyceride levels and CV risk; (3) initial Vazkepa Germany pricing of €200/mo has not deterred prescribers. Reit OP. $10 PT.

SVB Leerink

72034

70034

74234

Thanks for sharing Pharma!!

All the Best!!

Awesome Work!! Thank you!!!

I find your PFE insight very interesting, as I thought they were going after non-cardiologist doctors.

Nice catch Lizzy.

Are they shining out the Batman signal. ; )

Pharm,

Totally agree with your analysis!! Unfortunately we’re stuck in the middle and EU countries know it.

Thanks

x BLK BK

I thought management stated a request for more data pushed potential approval to 2Q. I don’t think they stipulated what data and if it was pricing related.

Laurent,

Great summary and read of the nuances. As you say, I think she will be able to sway one of them with the possibility of a scathing dissent!!

Hats off to Marjac for an amazing job of articulating the facts, and getting the fraud points identified, despite the panels constant focus on standing and timing. A top notch attorney!! Thanks!!

Best,
x BLK BK

Marjac

As many others have stated, praying and wishing you all the best!!

I know you will be peppered with questions, but I’m hoping the judges may leave you a last few seconds to remind them that CVD is the #1 killer, and that Du’s ruling caused Amarin to stop advertising and gut its sales force!!

Americans don’t need to wait months for a verdict!! People are dying.

Best,
x BLK BK

Sstyles

Thanks for thinking I might know something. Sorry, I don’t!!

Just trying to read between the lines and promoting a positive vibe.

We had a few nice days with increased volume and some large blocks following Denner’s disclosure. Today was another takedown across most of small-cap biotech, not AMRN specific.

As Kiwi has been stating, and per today’s CNBC interview, NVS is very focused on CVD.

Let’s hope something plays out between NVS and PFE. I’m sure they are all watching/listening next Friday. Go Marjac!!

All the Best,
X BLK BK

Interesting Form 4s. Looks like some of the boys have changed strategy. Keeping shares and only disposing enough to cover taxes. Wonder why?? ; )

Could it be Denner??

I’d be happy to join the party as well!! As a guy from the south shore.

All the Best Marjac!! I know you’ll bring your A game!! It’s up to judges clear minds and clear ears!! Final 5!!!

Welcome back JL. Time for a new car??

Abe,

IMHO, they are not in any BO talks. Too many uncertainties with USA litigation, EU rollout speed/penetration, and China approval/launch timing, to make a proper takeout valuation.

For me, the major questions are how far along are they in combo R&D. We know from R-It results, V works with any statin. So, have they been experimenting with various formulation and encapsulations already? How far along are they with the FDA in terms of what existing data and/or pivotal trial needed for approval?

If the above is done and known, maybe today’s announcement is the bugle sounding?? PFE, MRK… we’re almost off to the races, who wants their statin to be the one and let’s make a deal.

Interesting times!!

Also, if a combo is on the near horizon, it gives us back the USA market and maybe that is why they didn’t get involved with Marjac’s litigation??

xBLKBK

Rose,

Okay and agreed. But are you saying the generic automatically gets rights to the new indication?? Covid as well as boners : )

If that’s the case, why should AMRN pursue any other anti-inflammatory indications, if Hikma/Reddy…can sell immediately?

I honestly don’t know the answer with the insurance/pharmacy nonsense.

x

Sounds like Pfizer may get another money maker!! Tucker on Fox News just did a piece where Viagra was used to thwart the lung issues brought on by Covid. As the doctor explained, Viagra boosts the nitric oxide in the lungs that is diminished by Covid.

Why can’t AMRN find a doctor to discuss the anti-inflammatory benefits and CVD (Reduce-It) benefits on Fox?

Mitigate can’t read out soon enough!!!

sstyles,

Remains my largest position. Have added recently. Share count in the 100K’s. Strong?

IMHO, sure PFE is interested. Maybe others (no knowledge)? With PPS where it currently is, there is no way a deal can be reached. Irish rules prevent hostile, thank God!! So, again IMHO, we need clarity on EU uptake/new markets, Chinese approval, and USA litigation, in order to move PPS upward, and therefore give more clarity to our worth and takeout multiple. Unfortunately until then, we ride the XBI/IBB waves, and as a 1 drug company with stagnant sales, we underperform. For now?? For how long??

We still have the best CVD drug, with potential other anti-inflammatory indications.

Best,
X

MrMS,

Unfortunately I don’t have access to her research now that she is at Piper. However I did have access when she was at Roth.

This is her old valuation parameters from a note back in 2020 when she was at Roth:

Our $31/share price target is derived from a risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) analysis, based on: 1) $14/share for Vascepa in the U.S. (approved, $3.6B peak revenue); 2) $16/share for Vascepa in the EU (2020 launch, 100% POS, $3.1B peak revenue); and 3) $1 additional cash per share. We take our model out to 2030 and use an 6% discount rate.

So, IMHO, the $19 is based on a similar expectation of EU value, along with a much diminished value for USA.

Bottom line, for me, our stock price is very undervalued just on the EU alone. Let alone, Canadian and China royalties, USA, with Healthnet litigation outcomes and/or if Marjac pulls off a Doug Flutie Hail Mary, and RoW.

Best,
xBLKBK

Those numbers are USA scripts not Germany/EU

I don’t know if she uses the same data provider as RAF, but this was the weekly commentary that the JP Morgan analyst put out yesterday:

Vascepa EUTRx for the week was 9,339,906 which translates to roughly 77,833 Vascepa bottles sold, down from 79,260 bottles last week. Our EUTRx to bottle conversions are based on the standard package size of these products, comprising 120 capsules per bottle.

Based on EUTRx, branded Vascepa market share within the omega-3 fatty acid market averaged 53.1% in 1Q, 52.3% in 2Q and 50.3% in 3Q. So far in 4Q, this share has averaged 48.1%.

Based on EUTRx, in the latest week generic Vascepa had 23.3% share of overall icosapent ethyl volume (Vascepa+generic Vascepa) and 14.5% share YTD.

Go Marjac (QB1) wearing your TB12 jersey of course (GOATs). ; )

Congratulations and thanks for all your legal acumen and efforts!!

Amen.

Thanks FFS

Just wish you were saying interesting in terms of ring of fire volcanoes and not ring of fire depths of hell. : ).

Eight large caps (JNJ, PFE, NVS, Roche, MRK, BMY, GSK, ABBV) have potential M&A capacity of >$100bn. Many face a looming growth crisis in 2025-2030

They must be salivating at the valuations a lot of small biotechs are hitting.

2022 could be interesting for small cap bio in general (and hopefully AMRN too).

All the Best,
xblkbk

Some day this week. I saw it in a weekly research summary report.

Summary

The analyst from Leerink commissioned a KOL survey on Europe CV mkt/Vazkepa launch in EU...Data underscored our view mkt is large w/ high unmet need, and Docs highly interested in prescribing Vazkepa to CV patients with elevated TG levels and persistent CV risk. Polled 67 cardiologists in 5 EU countries who individually treat avg of 229 CVD or CV risk pts/month. Physician usage ests show compelling pos indicators for Vazkepa’s ongoing launch/reflect strong underlying demand that could support $1B Vazkepa peak sales in EU long term. Price will drive growth. Reit OP, $12 PT.

Tomorrow may be ugly for the market. Hopefully we can hold ground. Luckily it’s a short day, closing at 1pm.

Asian markets down about 3% and dow futures down over 400.

Some new Covid variant found in South Africa with lots of mutations. Here’s a snip it from a CNBC article I read:

The B.1.1.529 variant contains multiple mutations associated with increased antibody resistance, which may reduce the effectiveness of vaccines, along with mutations that generally make it more contagious, according to slides he presented at the briefing. Other mutations in the new variant haven’t been seen until now, so scientists don’t yet know whether they are significant or will change how the virus behaves, according to the presentation.
The variant has spread rapidly through the Gauteng province, which contains the country’s largest city of Johannesburg.

slev,

IMHO supply chain lockups have been the key to keeping us with static USA revs verse the generic onslaught. Former management’s key contribution?

But I think our potential suitor may view, as negotiating leverage, exclusively, as their biggest source of peak revs (value). Especially in EU and future RoW (China already partnered, therefore only royalty).

If there is truly a robust worldwide market, then supply is king!! Our biggest leverage.

However, if I was the Buyer, I would say to AMRN, look at USA, sales have basically flatlined (Covid access to doctors? AMRN refrain), so how big in reality is Europe if you hit peak so quickly, “your exclusivity argument doesn’t hold water and exclusivity is burning away anyway”.

I’m no Marjac, or attorney, just trying to play out potential negotiations in my mind. So with pps in the gutter, no near term “unknown” catalyst (we all know China next month), AMRN won’t get the price they want. So therefore, my spring opinion answer, that started this conversation.

Best,
xBLKBK

Agree. Time bleeding away.

But I don’t know if an imminent buyout would change the EU country negotiations to a huge degree. If a deal does transpire in spring 2022, I would think our acquirer would be “coaching” AMRN and utilizing their country contacts to facilitate negotiations prior to closing date.