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Re: None

Sunday, 03/16/2025 1:44:56 PM

Sunday, March 16, 2025 1:44:56 PM

Post# of 447398
FWIW. Some calculations and RS thoughts
(Calculations use numbers just reported, 411M shares outstanding, and 1:20 RS effective April 11th):
Cash: $294.2M =  $0.716/shr.  $14.32
Value of Tax Loss Carryforwards:Accrued loss 1,668,546,000 at a 20% tax rate= $333.7M.  $0.812/shr.  $16.24
Revenue Runrate;4Q24 $62.3M  Annualized $249.2MAt 1x rev.  $0.61/shr.   $12.13(Note, acquisitions use a multiple of PEAK revenues, typically 3x)
Given the above, with the stock at $0.41 or $8.20, it is significantly undervalued. 
An acquirer would also take into consideration the new LR-EtEPA formulation. No way to quantify the value without knowledge of FDA trial requirements, patent length...
Another consideration is the value to the acquirer's drug portfolio. This is where I concur with SanDiegoLiving on Stocktwits, Vascepa is a perfect fit for Novo, given Entresto off patent 7/15/2025, and combo therapy potential with both their PCSK-9 (Inclisiran) and their GLP-1 offerings. It will be very interesting to see the data on their in vitro GLP-1/Vascepa combo. 
Given the stock price and delisting timeframe, a Reverse Split was inevitable. I think there were 2 main reasons for 1:20. First, it shrinks the float to roughly 20M, making an all stock acquisition much more palatable for the acquirer. More importantly, it puts the post split price firmly above $5. Many mutual fund bylaws have minimum price guidelines at $5. As a penny stock, AMRN is not on institutional radar, it doesn't meet the criteria in their stock screening algorithms. That will change post split. 
Most RS occur shortly after announcement. So why is ours taking nearly a month? Is it to provide time for the news to permeate through the institutional investor community, and provide time to do their homework and be ready on April 11, 2025 ??
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