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Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
Well, there goes the volume. Now we all get down to business again. The business of waiting for results...
That post was in response to Gov saying that previous run ups have been PR driven, which they have clearly not been.
The point is, we've seen quite a few of these runs that we're based on no news and they didn't sustain. The only gains we have held or losses we have endured have been the result of solid actionable news. And until someone can pinpoint what is driving volume and SP I believe it's probably nothing legitimate or sustainable.
You're wrong. There have not been PRs timed with all of those volume events and that is false information.
Want proof? I went and pulled every high volume and sp gain event in the last 18 months and compared to PRs.
April 25th, 2014 Spike - Closest PR was April 14.
September 5th 2013 Spike - closest PR was september 9th which started actually caused a massive sell off and a reverse of the increase. Prior to that the closest pr was mid august.
July 19th, 2013 Jump - PRs on june 26th and August 12th
May 10th, 2013 jump - PRs on april 5th and may 28th.
You can clearly see that PRs are NOT causing these events.
I guess that's a matter of interpretation. I don't believe that trial completion is the catalyst here as it is simply the end of an already predefined term. Results would be actionable news. We are all pretty good at turning just about every PR into our own "actionable news". For my own personal investing I would consider what we have received to be nice updates but nothing of recent memory to act on. We all watch this stock pretty closely and i haven't seen anyone cite anything that aligns nicely with the increase in volume and SP. I thought maybe the patent awarding was it, then i thought maybe there was a heavy PR coming but neither of those presented unexpected or groundbreaking information and have been simply formalities at this point.
You could be right and this is build up to study results. Perhaps that's the action here but i would have expected a slower build into the SP if that were the case.
I certainly hope i'm wrong and continued efforts to break $2 may indicate there is more going on here but i'm prepared to be back in the 1.80's in the near term.
The action seems great the last few sessions but can't help but feel like I've been here before. Looking back at the chart, we have. Several times. Huge days seemingly out of the blue followed by consolidation all the way back to where we started or lower. Each time, the highs have gotten a bit lower. If this is the same type of action I expect we won't spend any significant time above $2 and this volume will be gone by the end of the week.
We saw more volume and similar action in may, july and September of last year and april of this year. When you look at those events our current volume is less than half.
It's exciting to watch but since this has come, yet again, without any actionable news I fully anticipate the pull back.
It's way better here than YMB but the bashers will be back soon. They left us alone while we were plodding along with little action but the big jump in the last few sessions will bring them back.
Yeah, that would be groundbreaking because would have told us the drug and 30% of our pipeline was bunk.
I welcome your disagreement but I've been in this stock for as long or longer than most and I've read dozens of PRs which drive the SP down because there is no tangible or actionable information.
Obviously, this isn't one of them. This is great news. My point is perhaps we should treat it as such. Leo is just bad a sharing good news.
Do you remember when the p21 marker results were "announced" at that conference a year ago? It's the news we longs had waited for for months and it slipped out like a wet fart and he back peddled immediately saying they results we inconclusive. That was over a year ago and there hasn't been movement on that front since. I'm just tired of good news being treated like the same mundane trash that gets PRed constantly like the ever increasing potential market value of B, a potentially potent drug that might potentially enroll it's full cohort which could potentially make us all rich. That's not news that hypothetical conjecture and to put that changing number in no less than 4 PRs is, wait for it, FLUFF.
I think this board should be a place for healthy criticism of the company we put our money in. I don't think people need to swoop in to defend CTIX and Leo's honor every time someone expresses a negative thought. He's a big boy and he's playing with my money.
I think a little criticism is due for a company that's down 20% since the start of year in a market that is up significantly even after the recent pull back.
I'm not alone in my criticism and I don't think you can lump all of us longs in your opinion. I am and have been long CTIX since I bought in around 70 cents and I've watched some of the company's longest and loudest table pounders sell and leave because they too got frustrated.
Please forgive my perpetual negativity and I'll forgive your perpetual table pounding.
***PR***
My apologies if someone already posted this but I didn't see it yet.
BEVERLY, MA--(Marketwired - Aug 7, 2014) - Cellceutix Corporation (OTCQB: CTIX) (the "Company"), a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing innovative therapies in oncology, dermatology, and antibiotic applications, is pleased to announce that it has just received notice that the data from its Phase 1 trial of the Company's anti-psoriasis drug candidate Prurisol™ for the conversion of Prurisol to abacavir indicated "the areas are within passing Bioequivalency limits." Cellceutix believes it has met the primary endpoints and objectives of the study. Cellceutix is developing Prurisol™ under guidance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that a 505(b)(2) designation is an acceptable pathway to expedite development of the compound for treating psoriasis.
Upon receipt of the final report Cellceutix will schedule a meeting with the FDA to advance Prurisol into a Phase 2/3 clinical trial as quickly as possible.
About Cellceutix:
Headquartered in Beverly, Massachusetts, Cellceutix is a publicly traded company under the symbol "CTIX". Cellceutix is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing innovative therapies in oncology, dermatology and antibiotic applications. Cellceutix believes it has a world-class portfolio of compounds and is now engaged in advancing its compounds and seeking strategic partnerships. Cellceutix's anti-cancer drug Kevetrin is currently in a Phase 1 clinical trial at Harvard Cancer Centers' Dana Farber Cancer Institute and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. In the laboratory Kevetrin has shown to induce activation of p53, often referred to as the "Guardian Angel Gene" due to its crucial role in controlling cell mutations. Cellceutix is planning a Phase 2 clinical trial with its novel compound Brilacidin-OM for the prevention and treatment of Oral Mucositis. Brilacidin-OM, a defensin mimetic compound, has shown in the laboratory to reduce the occurrence of severe ulcerative oral mucositis by more than 94% compared to placebo. Cellceutix's anti-psoriasis drug Prurisol is presently in a bioequivalence crossover clinical trial. Prurisol is a small molecule that acts through immune modulation and PRINS reduction. Cellceutix's key antibiotic, Brilacidin, is in a Phase 2b trial for Acute Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections, or ABSSSI. Brilacidin has the potential to be a single-dose therapy or a dosing regimen that is shorter than currently marketed antibiotics for multi-drug resistant bacteria (Superbugs). Cellceutix has formed research collaborations with world-renowned research institutions in the United States and Europe, including MD Anderson Cancer Center, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, and the University of Bologna. More information is available on the Cellceutix web site at www.cellceutix.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause Cellceutix's actual results and experience to differ materially from anticipated results and expectations expressed in these forward looking statements. Cellceutix has in some cases identified forward-looking statements by using words such as "anticipates," "believes," "hopes," "estimates," "looks," "expects," "plans," "intends," "goal," "potential," "may," "suggest," and similar expressions. Among other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements are Cellceutix's need for, and the availability of, substantial capital in the future to fund its operations and research and development; including the amount and timing of the sale of shares of common stock to Aspire Capital; the fact that Cellceutix's compounds may not successfully complete pre-clinical or clinical testing, or be granted regulatory approval to be sold and marketed in the United States or elsewhere. A more complete description of these risk factors is included in Cellceutix's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Cellceutix undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to any such forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as required by applicable law or regulation.
Leo is routinely the worst PR guy on the planet. I just don't get it. If he was simply reserved and cautious then he wouldn't keep dropping these absurdly fluffy PRs but when we do finally get good news I feel like i'm reading and obitutary.
What does this PR mean besides that the trial is over?
Keep in mind I am a moron but here's my guess:
Bioequivilance is usually used to measure generic drugs against their brand name counterparts.
result: Prurisol converted to abacavir in the body (the intention) within a range that made it equivalent to taking Ziagen (brand name abacavir).
Here is the note in the study:
Part B of the study will determine the average bioequivalence of abacavir derived from Prurisol (abacavir acetate) 350mg compared with abacavir derived from the commercially available tablet formulation of Ziagen (abacavir sulfate) 300mg.
After completion of Part A, subjects will be randomly assigned to cross-over treatment sequence Prurisol then Ziagen, or Ziagen then Prurisol. Five to 21 days later, each subject will receive the alternate study drug. Evaluable subjects in the PK population will be those who received both alternate treatments and for whom an adequate number of post-dose PK sample results are available.
My understanding is that since the body is converting it it has a different impact on immo-response despite resulting in a "bioequivilent" drug.
Interestingly enough Ziagen is owned by ViiV healthcare, an HIV focused collaboration which is 75% owned by Glaxo...
My understanding is that VM ware is a lot more than just the software that glassware would compete with. This is the Horizon suite from VMware. They offer about 25 other solutions from local server management software, cloud storage and computing, virtualization software, cloud, security etc.
Sphere 3d actually pays VMware to be a "tech alliance partner" which is basically a membership which allows Sphere 3d to be listed in VMware's solution exchange get training and work with VMware to evaluate and integrate their software.
If you wanted to compare them directly you would need to isolate the horizon value which is just a small piece of their company. In theory VMware would be a prospective buyer of Sphere 3d. But in reality we are lightyears away from a 40 billion dollar company trading at 41x earnings.
I think there is lots of potential here but prefer to be a bit more conservative.
But hey, bring on 40 billion!
I didn't even call. Just chatted with a rep online. He gave me an email address to send the ticker to along with my request to have it added. They had it up in less than 24 hours. That cost me about 8% in missed growth and i ended up buying at the top of the little wave but I plan on holding for a while so no biggie. 6.95 trade commission... $50 is a rip off.
Just another trading site like etrade or TDameritrade, etc. They advertise about 4 inches above my post...
They were ING's trading site, then CapitalOne bought them out. yadda yadda...
I posted it for two reasons. First, this stock is so far under the radar that I had to ask for it to be added to the list of "supported" securities on Sharebuilder which means nobody who uses that site has ever purchased the stock. I've never encountered this before and have traded many OTC stocks. Second, there are hundreds of thousands of investors who couldn't buy SPIHF on Sharebuilder that can now that it has been added to their list of "supported" stocks.
New here. Got the tip from another board I monitor closely. Spent a few days doing DD and went to purchase yesterday morning only to hit a road block. The stock wasn't supported on Sharebuilder. Not sure where you folks trade but I had to put in a request to add the stock for trading yesterday. They reported back today that it was added and I jumped in. Thought you'd be interested to learn that SPIHF is now available to Sharebuilder traders which opens the doors for a few more new shareholders. Looking forward to seeing where this goes with you all.
Cheers.
I find yesterday and today's action interesting. I like the reduced volume combined with the stabilization in SP. I don't often get too fired up with my expectations but I think we're setting up for some positive movement in the next few sessions. Increasing my position here.
I continue to believe that the market sees the development of B as cash flow problem and a potential catalyst for dilution. I believe this is why we saw a sharp draw back after the announcement and why we continue to fight to hover around 1.90. CTIX appeared to have established a road for developing and financing both P and K and then they surprised everyone with the new acquisition of a failed company's assets. B will cost this company a lot of money before it ever returns a dollar.
Backing up my opinion are a flurry of seemingly desperate PRs by Leo trying validate the decision. This includes the bizarre "PR" that B is worth more than we thought. I think the trepidation over B is entirely justified. While I see great promise in B another company crumbled when trying to develop it. We (the board) routinely blame Polymedix management for the failure but at the end of the day we're just echoing Leo. The trials didn't give them the results they wanted, the company folded, Leo got this drug for a song and more concerning is there wasn't a line of companies trying to buy this "billion" dollar drug. I've heard an excuse for every one of these points but excuses aside, the facts are the facts and without a positive spin it doesn't paint the rosy picture that Leo is illustrating in his PRs.
So I ask this, if the K trials are going awesome and P is simply going through regulatory formalities why shift the focus of every PR and presentation to B?
We have been told for a year that they would be reporting p21 marker results any day now and the only hint we got was that results were inconclusive and more testing was needed.
During that same year P made virtually no progress (they made the pills) as we waited and waited for trials to start. Then the trails they had pumped all last year got canceled in lieu of another path to approval.
I think share holders have every reason to to raise an eyebrow and the market to lower the SP. I've been adding to my position for a long time and I have brought many investors to this company. But i don't think the market is acting irrationally here. Quite the opposite. I think it is reacting to a chain of events that makes CTIX less attractive than even an index fund which would have returned much more for your money. If you bought a year ago today you made a whopping 5% if you didn't sell it all in the two huge pull backs that happened over that year.
I remain long CTIX and think that investors will reap big profits in the years to come but this is going to be a long, bumpy road with a lot of near-term pressure on the SP. Especially while we under perform against the market.
It's been a while since I added my 2 cents to the conjecture and speculation. I have been invested CTIX for 2 years now and still hold a average cost of under a buck. I've seen these conferences come and go and each one has been preceded by a strong run up followed by a pull back. I don't see the same activity prior to this conference. Perhaps it's due to the rather significant drop in SP we sustained in the past several weeks and our current SP actually represents a slow run up. If that is the case I would anticipate buying opportunities to emerge Thursday and Friday.
I don't feel that Leo has used these conferences as a platform for major announcements in the past and I have yet to see one spark a major sustained increase in SP. They do give investors a focal point for our speculation but I don't have high expectations. I continue to await the test that will hopefully reveal signs of p53 activation via p21. We have been told this information is just around the corner for nearly a year now and the last results were encouraging but inconclusive. Leo barely mentioned them in his last presentation and was extremely cautious with his phrasing.
Now, the company has brought new drugs into the pipeline and updated us very little on K and we've seen what can be called a delay in P. The investment in B has not yet been reflected in shareholder value and has failed to keep us above the $2 mark for uplisting. I may be in the minority but I believe holding an SP above $2 was a strong motivating factor in the investment. In fact, since the acquisition we have seen a more volatile stock and a huge pull back. I believe this is due to general uncertainty about the company's ability to finance a whole new pipeline, lack of news from the K trials and confusion about the investment in B.
I am overall very positive about CTIX and ultimately I think there is value in this company but I have grown tired of thinking that every conference is the ignition point. I look for the next real catalyst to be a progression of K or P mid 2014. Then, of course, there is always the little twinge that tomorrow could be a huge day.
Good Luck to All and may Patience be with you!
I don't think Leo should have taken the air out of the p21 announcement. That was a strange move. "we saw slight increase in p21" that's all you need to say. He made it sound VERY cautionary and glazed right over the fact that patients are responding to the treatment. In fact, I can't imagine a more boring way to share news of p21 activation and positive patient response!
I don't think we're going down but my hopes that we are blowing up have been doused a bit.
I really think you underestimate the importance of positive data in both tumor response AND p21 marker. I think this is just MM trying to move shares as the morning volume dried up. What's in these slides is what CTIX longs have been waiting for years. The only question in my mind is how and when this news gets out of RR in the form of a PR. It might not pop as hard as it should since it'll be near the end of the trading day but I fully expect a gap up tomorrow morning.
When the links were posted is irrelevant. They are just directing your computer to a file on a server. That file can be updated whenever. When you go back and click the links in the old posts they will still take you to the new file. People noticed the change at about 8 am this morning.
Once I was able to see how the OP was able to access the slides I put my suspicions to rest. I was skeptical at first but this look legit to me.
I am a little concerned about this. Can the company legally reveal this information to a select group of investors at the conference? Aren't they required to put information like this out in a public forum that is readily accessible to all shareholders and investors, like a PR. They put out the acquisition PR this morning why wouldn't they follow with a p21 and efficacy PR. These slides aren't accessible through the regular R&R website. They are blocked. Where did this "updated" slides come from?
I don't know about a back seat. Maybe from a conference stand point. The PR this morning talks about speeding up and streamlining the Prurisol trials.
Are those slides real? When I try to pull them up directly from the conference site they are blocked until 15 minutes before the presentation.
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq23/ctix/
If they are real they are the biggest news we've seen since the start of trials. p21!!! Tumor Stabilization!
Man, I hope these are legit.
Low volume has consistently preceded big jumps in SP with CTIX. Look at the one year chart and you'll see that prior to every big jump there was a short period of extremely low volume. Obviously that could be well timed PRs or just the standard drift of interest and SP between announcements. I don't think there is anything to be learned here but what I find interesting is that the low volume appears to have come much quicker than in the past. Perhaps these stronger hands will give us a firmer floor here around 1.80 while we wait for news as opposed to dropping back to 1.50-1.60 as we did in the lag prior to ASCO. Just thinking out loud.
yup, and each one has to be verified at one level or another. I also noticed that they are requiring some type of photographic documentation of the tumor which brings medical imaging into the fold as well. So we're probably talking imaging appointments like MRI and what not. These people are already dealing with a terrible disease so add in consultations with their current physicians and their busy schedules. Then coordinate all of this out of an office that appears to have recently lost a key staffer. Compound all of this and I think its likely slow the process of randomizing patients. None of if seems like a big deal but it adds up and takes time and diligence. Think about your last ER visit with all of the waiting and inefficiency and the explode it on a massive scale. That's my limited understanding of clinical trials.
My fiance works in clinical research (in a different field) and is constantly jumping through hoops when randomizing patients. I don't think for a second I'm educating anyone here as you all know more than i do but with the trials just getting the official green light on Monday I think we all might need to exercise a little patience with our patients. It can take her a couple weeks to randomize a few patients for a study and funnel them through the various levels of tests and criteria required to participate. I don't know if that applies here but I would assume that they are being very selective with their candidates and getting patients will take some time. Once they get through that process I think dosing would start asap. I would imagine this is the reason for the 3-week timeline that has been mentioned several times. I believe we've been told roughly 3-weeks from the start of the study to dosing. If it's anything like that I think things could be quiet for the next 2-3 weeks as they screen and randomize participants.
kelt. how does one get on this mailing list for people "in the know"? ihub has decided that a PM should cost me 12 dollars. iHub and I have agreed to disagree about that. :)
I've been lurking in the shadows on this board for a couple of months after initiating a long position in CTIX. I finally felt compelled to get on here and thank you guys for entertaining me every day. This is without question the most positive group of cheerleaders I've ever come across and, if anything, you guys make owning CTIX a little more fun. Keep up the good work and keep making me feel better about investing in micro cap biopharma.
Cheers