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I do not agree with your rationale behind a change in management, but I accept the premise a change in management would be very good news for another reason nobody brings up(and I will not either). Suffice it so say, even if I accept your premise about management, are not we now too far gone that bringing on the "A" team would change anything? Rommel could not change the outcome of D Day.
Haysaw, with 20 million left in the bank, before apnea or RD were targeted, a different management could have made different decisions. Even with 10 million. But now? How do you attract a competent management team to a company approaching zero valuation? Can the BOD promise a salary beyond 60 days?
None from my vantage point. They can re-balkanize the ampakine platform for cash, but for what purpose? The only other possibility is to do another financing here for six month's cash and again in six months with substantial dilution. Look, in defense of the execs, I don't see a lot of CNS corporate jobs opening. My point about another financing is not my desire(far from it), but, rather, what I here is coming down the pike in the near term....
Replies to various posters....
Ombowstring, look I'm not suggesting I'm smarter than you... I probably lost more than you in this stock, but do you really expect or anticipate something positive? will you be surprised at a financing with dilution??
Hay, great post... what's a frigate bird? I laughed my ass off reading you post. Woody Allen once posited that comedy is simply tragedy plus time. I would suggest that describes the entire Cortex enterprise. Again, little has been said in public by Varney et al, but, when you really think about it, his suggestion of an in-house project with CX717 against Sickle Cell Crisis might be worthy of Jay Leno.... 1. CX717 2. Sickle Cell Crisis 3. How complicated and lengthy of a frigate bird of a trial might that be? Where's the punch line.
Let us be majestic like the chorus on the Titanic as the icy sea digests the final passengers. Various life boats have left. All that remains are Irvine registered paychecks for a final few months.
Ombowstring, part of Varney's last "communication" concerned his desire to fund and run an ampakine trial with the lovely CX717 in Sickle Cell Crisis patients! On reflection, we might need less communication than we're getting... and that's saying something.
This is a guess but I would anticipate a 30 dilution of what's left(shares outstanding) to dilute(ie not tied up in prior tranches, financing's) to raise 1.7-1.8 million dollars. Enough to continue with salaries for another six month's plus. Hopefully enough time to arrange for disposal of the company in the best possible manner.
Apparently we're not at the point of no return, which is a point of inability to do a financing. Heard there on the cusp of a financing. I wonder what the details are? A. who would loan them money, B. on what terms, and, C. what for? to run a trial or just to continue with salaries. Does 1-2 million dollars buy Cortex anything? I don't pretend to have the answers for these questions, but I'm deeply suspicious of anything but the worst possible terms with dilution galore.
There is typically 1-2 such communications per year. Perhaps one conference call. Bridge to what? If there is a near-term deal a few signatures away, fine, bridge and dilute away, otherwise, why? As for the sell off. There are numerous investors waiting to sell into good news or any type of news. It's dead money until a buyout or a surprise partnership.
Yes, all true and are points on the positive side of the ledger. Why hasn't senior management bailed? Well said. One ambiguous point to the contrary might be the marked atrophy of biotechs hiring scientists and management... how many have failed, how many downsized and running on fumes, perhaps is worse financial shape than Cortex. Then there is the big pharma in which tens of thousands of personal continue to lose their jobs with internal focus away from neuroscience and first-in-class research in general. The grass may not be greener than Cortex, if there is any grass at all. Second, many of the Cortex survivors are senior management nearing their natural retirement age in any event. I think they are seeking a way out in exactly the way you imagine. It may be easier said than done.
RB, any guesses on the buyout price? My guess is 30-50 cents but that's just a hunch. I can tell you this... none of us knows the price or how it will be valued, and, the shareholder price does not tell the whole story, but for the past few years... the share price has been on a straight downward trajectory.
Correct, sparkyone, corporate events are not dependent on shareholder meeting timing, but I think this is a future event coming up...? May of I recall correctly? Hopefully, the next news item will be a sale of the company.
I'm a conservative in the tradition of the Gipper and Margaret Thatcher. There is a dumbing down of the conservative party(Republicans and tea baggers)that Beck reflects quite well. Limbaugh has also dumb downed his show to suit his audience. A William F Buckley would not survive in the current conservative body politic, but a Palin will thrive. Dumb and hot.
I believe this reflects the dumbing down of the country, our basic educational system, the reliance on television reality idiocy, the lack of reading, the lack of critical questioning, the American dumby syndrome is not limited tot he right.
The real crime of Obama is he is viewed as somewhat of an intellectual. This is viewed as a stark negative. On actual policy items, there is, of course, zero difference between Bush. This is the great irony. Bush was more of a dim wit, which made him beloved to Rush; Obama is viewed(rightly or wrongly)as a University Professor egg head; Rush hates him. Iraq, Kabul, taxes, wars without end... and so on, there isn't a shred of difference or distinction.
So for Dr. Tracy to joke about Glen Beck does perhaps miss the larger point. Sadly, Beck reflects the body politic. So does Rush. And so does MSNBC on the left. They cater to their audience's lack of intellect. I was astounded watching the uber leftist Rachel Madow discuss how warranted the Libyan war is... as contrasted to the Iraq debacle. Interesting. Orwellian but stupid, intellectually vacuous, with limited cerebral volume. God I sound like an elitist.
But I believe a Rush, Beck and MSNBC and the birthers would not flourish with a bit more ampa receptor up-modulation on board... and a dose of reading.
The Servier decision to move into phase I testing came November 10 of 2010, so we might hear something in the fourth quarter of this year, of course, if there is a problem, I'm not sure the report of a tox issue with this compound would really be material from Servier's perspective. It is clear from the press release the broad focus is neurodegeneration with Alzheimer's. To be honest this target interests me more than all of the RD, ADHD and Sickle Cell orphan drug trials combined, but you need deep pockets to enter into this area, and this is something Cortex lacks.
Yes, hay, but we don't know of anything about that compound and trial design. Is it purely a safety issue, phase I trial, looking only at kinetics and such, or will it also include some cognitive parameters? Are they inclined, or forced, to include Cortex into the results??? or just at deciding to enter into phase IIa?
It would seem to me the best scenario with Servier might be a decision has been made to enter into phase IIa with the Servier lead compound for the area of cognition/neurodegeneration. That would be big news for us, and would probably entice Servier to hold their nose and enter into some sort of arrangement with Cortex. Paradoxically, a Servier failure with their lead might interest them into other Cortex high ampakines. But the 'when' with Server and the 'if it's safe' are not knowns at this juncture, but it is certainly the most intriguing issue for me....
I was corrected on the exact time frame from my source, who informed me the exact time frame was my sources perspective based on the doom and gloom vibe he was getting. But the message of doom, gloom was verified, not the timing. Based on his/her knowledge of the Cortex personal, there was a kind of fatalistic gloom.
I haven't talked to my source since that time, and, to be honest, don't much have the heart to do so. If we are going to be sold, we would know via a press release, not by a volume spike one way or another. So, when and if there is a buyout, we would not via press release first, without a clue one way or another.
I just hope they get it over with in the near-to-intermediate term. In medical terms, one might use the wording as persistent vegetative state, not brain death, but the quality of life issue looming, as the days, months, years of shareholder purgatory continues.
Ombow, I don't wish to get into a debate of the propriety of ending suffering versus life and all that. Whatever one feel or believes about human life, I respect that. Cortex, however, has no pulse. It was not created by a divine entity, unless Gary Lynch qualifies. It was developed as a corporate entity to move along ampa receptor up-modulation(or at least it adopted this motif soon after birth) to improve cognition and impact the brain in a variety of disorders for the gain of patients and shareholders.
The ASM meeting is approaching next month? I believe, so we may gain some clarity by then, but somehow I doubt it.
You should have asked him about the Blockbuster going-out-of-business sale. I got some great deals. Some for 4.99, 5.99, newbies for 7.99 and so on. Everything must go.
One can visualize a Cortex going out of business sale... live and/or ebay style auction.
In tier one would be CX1739... maybe a few million or more. Varney could handle that one.
Perhaps Coleman and Stoll could man the calculators taking care of CX516 and CX717. Or they could sell several "discs" at once... maybe 799 dollars for Sickle Cell Crisis, 799 for general party use, 599 to try again for ADHD(FDA consultants thrown in).
Then, the high impacts for a few million. Perhaps to Servier. I think they would go for a purchase of the high impact assets in favor of partnering with Cortex(again), as, if memory serves correctly, Stoll left Servier like a jilted lover the last time they bailed Cortex out. Their would be poetic justice and high karma to a Servier purchase at the going out of business sale.
I know this never happens. But perhaps it makes sense to try something innovative, interesting, out-of-the box, or just in bad taste for laughs. Maybe hire Mike Tyson to announce the auction and so on. Of course I'm missing the new, big idea of the year: using the completely safe CX717 for Sickle Cell Anemia crisis. What's next hirsutism? bad breath?
The intentional abuse of Adderal and other stimulants among college students is rampant. There is quite a bit of "ADHD" going around among college students and trading, gifting, and selling such rugs amongst friends. I know this as I am on the receiving end of college kids trying to get scripts for stimulants, leaving my office unhappily, and, more recently, with consultations in the ICU setting for status or severe withdraw symptoms after using Adderal et al.... often in conjunctions with caffeine oriented bogus dietary supplements.
Apart from the Cortex low light of humble financings, humbler once-a-year Waiting for Godot corporate updates, there is one very big gambling reason to stay long with ole Cortex. Aside from the broken record, I still pray somebody would take a bigger hand in the high impact area... Parkinson's or elsewhere, perhaps enticing Servier to enter into a deal(or buyout of Cortex), and the second reason is we do have a high impact in phase I for neurodegeneration. Imagine Cortex prospects should it prove safe and show some efficacy? That's a big if, but better than hoping they find the money to run a sickle cell trial with CX717=)
gfp or anybody else have a handle on how much money they have left in the till? I suppose the next news item may be another stopgap financing to bring in the money needed to accomplish existing until the selling of the company, running a sickle cell trial with CX717, or finalize a deal of some sort. Ground Hogs day part deux.
There was a one-line mention in either the 10-K or some other SEC form because it caught my attention since I could not recall this aural detail, or, perhaps better described, as a spectral detail=)
This is what they want to raise 15 million dollars for? to proceed with the lovely CX717 into Sickle Cell Crisis? You sell off the high impacts or you sell off the low impacts for that? Seriously, I think that Stoll will force a sale here. I think it is our best course going forward.
I fail to see how Sickle Cell Crisis is a feasible or smart indication. It may be even worse, more complex a choice than apnea, and there might be a better choice of carrot than the pulmonary component of Sickle Cell Crisis.
Hay, you seem to have seen red on the question of your expertise, suggesting a sore spot, then you deflect with yet more attacks on Dr. Tracy. You remind me of Louis Farrakhan who yesterday got quite upset at the attacks on his buddy in Libya, but instead of responding to the issue of Obama attacking Libya, he resorted to a multiple line of attacks on the Jews.
I would remind you, hay, Dr. Tracy is not your enemy. Indeed, there is no external enemy, just your own ego. To be more precise, the fixation on an external enemy is just one of many examples of ego mischief.
But I must confess to a certain sense of that Germanic glee for the misfortune of others when it comes to Minister Farrakhan's current angst regarding Obama, Libya, and his external enemy. I would love to get him on "my couch" and show him the Freudian error of his ways.
Andy, is it a hold on trading? or is Cortex just perfectly valued at .152 cents a share, having finally reached steady state... inquiring minds want to know....
I listened to the Alex Jones show for his interview of Charlie Sheen. It was epic. A piece of art. I've never laughed so hard in all my life. They both seem quite anxious, completely insane, off their meds, off the charts, but really, really entertaining. They referred to themselves as vatican assassins, but I'm not sure what that was referring to.
If it's all going to end May 21, we should all update our bucket lists.
1. Morphine for everybody, even dogs... so they can go out with a smile.
2. Viagra for everybody... I guess that heart disease isn't a good enough reason to abstain from vitamin V if the whole thing ends on May 21(the oh what a way to go hypothesis).
3. Rob a bank wearing a Nixon mask... just for kicks
4. Sell all Cortex and other "investments" , drink a shot of jack, and go directly to Vegas, rinse, and repeat as necessary
5. Be kind to those you love, especially your wife, tell her you love her and kiss her, but also kiss all those pretty girls at Starbucks, the bank, the hospital, the drug store, and those random babes jogging down the road.
6. Also, stop jogging immediately.
I got to gets back to work but thats the big six off the top of my head if we hit Defcon 1.
I'm in favor of Neuro's outsourcing approach... ie I would like the Sickle Crisis issue to be wound up in a good RD partnership, but with a caveat or two.
1. If it wouldn't harm a RD deal....
2. More important, might A Sickle Cell foundation type of structure be a source of advancing CX717? ala MJ Fox.
Especially if 2. might be true. Say Cortex can raise 5-6 million by a foundation or say even 2 million by a Sickle Cell Disease foundation, that would be enough to fund a phase IIa small trial. Then, it makes sense.
in2it, you seem quite informed. I never quite bought the Stoll-Cortex-Victim SCV theory completely, although I tried to convince myself of it... it never quite took. There is more to the FDA story than will ever know, or will be revealed. Like the LAPD handling of the Black Dahlia murder, it's best to leave shoddy police work in some 1950 era filling cabinet collecting dust somewhere. Nuff said.
On the other side of the equation, much was made of Roger's wit and wisdom in renegotiating back North American rights from the clutches of Servier. I'm sure Servier has not forgotten their treatment at the hands of Stoll and company(but that's just a hunch on my part). To recall the good Mr. Dylan, 'you don't look so proud having to scrounge your next meal' and all that.
Maybe, Roger's pulled a two-fer, but seeking the trifecta? First, antagonize the one pharma ready and willing to work with you, next antagonize the FDA with your brilliance. Finally, ensure by the force of your personality, the sale of the company at the lowest possible price point possible. Priceless. Thank you, Roger, could I have another?
There will be an obvious financing unless there is an upcoming selling of the company on short order.
hay, didn't the FDA allow testing in Alzheimer's after a while but at a much lower dosage? whereas, by contrast, it refused to allow the IND in ADHD for phase IIb. Painful ancient history that I have blotted from memory, so I could be wrong in the Alzheimer's thing. It was in the days when the neuro division involved both neuro and psych. I don't have a clue what division would involve pain or, sickle cell crisis. What you're talking about is acute usage as opposed to chronic usage. An example of acute use drug would be Toradal. It is the world best NSAID. It will treat ANY PAIN. Sounds great, but it will also provoke GI bleeding so it can only be given in the acute setting for a day or so, and, really it's greatest use is in the ER setting. Having said that, it, CX717, will be a hurdle Cortex will have to cross if they get the money to proceed with an orphan drug use in sickle cell patients.
Thanks, well said. I'm researching sickle cell RD as we speak.
Another question. What about the RD asset buy back? Is there a clause where some amount of money from a buyout of Cortex would be paid to the previous RD owners? This might lower the amount of a buyout due to shareholders from 50 million to 35 million dollars to use this as an example, making a buyout option less lucrative to shareholders.
Yes, the central apnea looks like a really good target, but, although large, it is a diffuse market which cannot be targeted to a few medical centers, but the mixed, central market looks like a viable target indeed. The sickle cell target does not interest me in the slightest. To be honest, I was a bit sickened to see those slides highlighted with CX717 for sickle cell in an orphan drug indication. This would be used, at least, partially in a pediatric market. Perhaps the FDA will not care since Sickle cell would be an acute indication, but it still gives me the willies.
Bottom line. I have a mix of feelings about this. On the one hand, the alternative which may be pursued is a buyout on the cheap(although cheap is a linear target which continues to move in one direction). But second, could the sale of RD/apnea change the dynamics? The Cortex thinking seems to be to use CX717 since it's clinic ready with a smaller target window for sickle cell RD in terms of time to approval. But, wouldn't 15 million dollars be better served to moving ahead with a new low impact in ADHD or cognition? This is a rhetorical question I do not know the answer to.
I would rather go with a reverse split, potential new management handling a modest cash infusion than go with the buyout on the cheap option, but, gfp, if a reverse split is not really in management's interest then how/why are they done at all? Is it a situation where an agressive BOD and outside entity urges and insists on such a move?
Intriguing, gfp. It doesn't sound like a bad approach. You essentially wipe out current shareholders(although we are wiped out to begin with), wipe out control of management, raise some money, then pursue ADHD with new management. It is also possible that other entities... FDA and other companies might wish to work with new management as well.
So, why in the world would management pursue a course not in their interest?
Are you referring to Japan. I watched it live on the internet last night. I've never seen waves move so far inland.
This is why the upcoming call might be interesting. Will Stoll or Varney do the call? Will it be standard boilerplate or honestly discuss looking to sell off the company. I would define standard boilerplate as being "in discussions with various companies for various indications" but this give the shareholder no sense what is the strategic vision of management. I understand the standard boilerplates are always used, but it would be nice to get the 'however' word used to look at the strategic option of selling the company. Is there a downside to state the realistic intermediate terms options of a. doing a small financing to keep breathing versus b. selling the company for 50 cents... assuming they can get 50 cents and assuming there is nobody who wants to enter into a major partnership for one of the indications.
For all my pessimism, it ain't over till the fat ampakine lady sings. And she ain't sung yet. Part of my deep frustration, self-flagellation and the like is I agree with Dr. Tracy on many things Cortex related. They are in better shape in a wide number of fronts referable to last year.
1. They have a high impact with Servier in phase I
2. They are advancing in Parkinson's with some validation by proxy though the MJ Fox Foundation
3. They have validation in POC in a single day dosage in sleep apnea
Those are not small things. In fact, the first and third are decent achievements by anyone's measure. But the extreme negativity is reflected in the share price. 14 cents. The share price does not the whole story tell. I realize that, but 14 cents is a joke. One year and down from what 34 cents to 14 cents? With cash running out again.
The final chapter has not yet been written. There is solace in that.
On a related note on cost cutting, one might posit that ceasing corporate operations with the sole exception of disposal of the patent estate might save considerable money. You don't need to worry about paying various six-figure salaries, continuing lease obligations past certain dates, and the like. It would seem to me that 95 % of Cortex positions might be eliminated. That might argue against the need for another financing... if their position is starting to sour.
Query to the board... how much cash do they have left? It's hard to sort this out due to the cost/payments of apnea, consultants, ect... and, also, related to the first question, is it even possible to do another financing as I proposed to raise say 1.6 million for "continuing corporate activities" and the like. At a certain point, it would seem that the warrants or percentage ownership issues prohibit raising said money. With the stock price slipping under 15 cents and counting with tiny volume and an array of previous "financing vehicles" in place that demand a share of ownership/warrants/clauses, how much can they raise?
As far as I'm concerned, if they can't raise enough money to run an ADHD trial, they shouldn't raise money. I don't think I've seen a situation where they're has been more distrust towards management and the company by a wide array of shareholders. Doubtless, some may have an agenda, but most are just tired of excuses and the endless time needed for everything Cortex related to transpire.
Every few years, Dr. Varney gives a brief, hopeful talk at Rodman, Roth or some other itineration thereof. His voice is calm, self-assured. The talk is approximately eighteen minutes long, varies little in terms of slides or bullet point every few years, then a few questions occur in a ill-defined "breakout session." I believe these slides are being readied, adjusted as we speak. I believe the next talk will occur in the next week or so. Hope that helps.
Me too, gfp. Or at least if the bashing firm would pay for my OpusX Cigars, I would gladly bash biotech firms. It may be a good market niche for me when Obamacare is fully enacted. BTW, I don't see Obamacare as being a bad thing for doctor pay or a bad thing for the people, but I fear the amount of paperwork will be more than dreadfully burdensome. This is a trend happening all too much as of late. I would have voted for an English-type, or Canadian-type, medical system, but nobody consulted me. 40 hours per week, union, federal benefits... where do I sign?