full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Harbin Electric Files For $120M Offering
Thursday 05/28/2009 6:01 AM ET - T
Harbin Electric Files a Shelf Registration Statement
Thursday 05/28/2009 6:00 AM ET - PR Newswire
Harbin Electric, Inc. ("Harbin Electric" or the "Company", Nasdaq: HRBN), a leading developer and manufacturer of a wide array of electric motors in the People's Republic of China, today announced that it has filed a universal shelf registration statement on Form S-3 ("Registration Statement") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on May 27, 2009.
San Gold Updates Hinge Zone Progress and Adds New High Grade Zones
BISSETT, MB--(MARKET WIRE)--May 28, 2009 -- Dale Ginn, CEO of San Gold Corporation (CDNX:SGR.V - News), is pleased to report that ongoing definition drilling continues to confirm and extend multiple high grade, near surface deposits within the collective Hinge Zone. Drilling from surface as well as underground has, in addition to defining the known lenses (#1 and #2, previously labeled Hinge #4), also discovered four additional lenses (#3, 4, 5 and 6) as highlighted by drill holes # H96-09-08 which encountered 37 g/tonne (1.07 oz/ton) over 3.9 meters (12.8 ft) and # GS-09-77 which cut 30 g/tonne (0.88 oz/ton) over 2.1 meters (7.0 ft) in lens #6. The proximity of the #3 lens led to its immediate development at the 100 meter level, a description of this development is provided below in the body of this news release. The other additional lenses located to the footwall of lens #1 and #2 have been referred to in prior news releases as "other footwall" zones and are undergoing further definition and interpretation by San Gold geologists. An update on other Hinge zone activities and developments is provided below as well.
09:08 Gapping Down:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DSW -10.6%, BCSI -9.7%, SBLK -7.8%, TIVO -2.9%, COST -2.7%... Other news: TEX -6.2% (announced that it is seeking ~$600 mln in new financing) LEAP -5.9% (announces 7 mln shares common stock offering), TTWO -4.6% (to offer $100 mln of convertible senior notes), CIM -4.1% (announces pricing of common stock offering at $3.22 per share), MDVN -3.9% (prices offering of 2.75 mln common shares at $21.00 per share)... Analyst comments: JWN -4.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), SKS -3.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral), CAT -1.7% (downgraded at UBS to Sell from Neutral).
Wade, the AGM news last nite appears to make some shareholders think AGM is taking on more risk (although it seems like their standard type of business to me). Down about half a buck in premkt.
08:16 China imposing even stricter fuel standards than US.
NY Times reports worried about heavy reliance on imported oil, Chinese officials have drafted automotive fuel economy standards that are even more stringent than those outlined by President Obama last week, Chinese experts with a detailed knowledge of the plans said. The new plan would require automakers in China to improve fuel economy by an additional 18% by 2015, said An Feng, a leading architect of China's existing fuel economy regulations who is now the president of the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation, a nonprofit group in Beijing. The plan is going through the interagency approval process, with comments sought from automakers, and is scheduled for release early next year, he said.
08:37 Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FREE +18.7%, LFT +7.6%, FRO +7.3%, DMND +7.2%, SAFM +4.7%, CWTR +4.6%, JAS +3.7%... Select small-cap pharma stocks showing strength: ANPI +25% (continued gains following yesterday's 45% surge on FDA news), EXEL +23.0% (announces a global license agreement with Sanofi Aventis for XL147 and XL765 and a collaboration for the discovery of inhibitors of phosphoinositide-3 kinase for the treatment of cancer), PARD +13.8% (announces "positive" efficacy and safety data from Phase 2 clinical trial of picoplatin in men with metastatic prostate cancer), OCLS +12.0% (continued momentum following yesterday's 240% gain), OGXI +10% (light volume), VNDA +4.7%... Other news: DRYS +5.6% (announces it has reached agreement with Deutsche Bank as lender and mandated lead arranger on waiver terms for $1.125 bln of debt), FIG +3.9% (FT reports the co is nearing an agreement that would mark the first step in a push into US retail banking, according to people familiar with the transaction), GLW +2.7% (raises 2Q LCD volume expectations), TWX +0.8% (confirms plan to separate AOL)... Analyst comments: KMX +8.9% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Securities; tgt raised to $15), SNDK +3.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), SATC +7.8% (initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich, tgt $4).
14:50 Floor Talk: Bond market sell-off creates afternoon volatility
Volatility has picked up this afternoon with a bond market sell-off and spike in yields dragging equities lower. Up until midday it was a very quiet session confined to a tight trading range. The most anticipated event -- the Treasury's 5-year note auction -- went well and was met with very little initial market reaction. Yield came in a bit better than expected, bid-to-cover was strong at 2.3x and participation from foreign investors was solid -- all illustrating strong demand for the sovereign debt. While bond prices began to tick lower initially, selling pressure quickly gained steam leading to a cascade lower in fixed income and spike in yields (10-year yields jumped from 3.533% to above 3.70%). This bond market selling is being attributed to large mortgage players hedging as rates moved higher against their positions and holdings. These participants need to hedge exposure that is the result of the recent spike in refinancing, and are using the longer dated bonds to do so. The thinner market conditions are only adding to the magnitude of the move and the known supply coming out of tomorrow's $26 bln 7-year auction (more supply at a relatively new maturity) is providing another reason for buyers to stay out of the way.
Equities have traded lower as a result (Dow -95, SPX -8, Nasdaq -4). The higher yields are seen as problematic as they indicate a higher borrowing costs across the board and call into question the govt's ability to keep them down, which is a key factor in the recovery effort underway. An increase in the govt's cost of capital is a concern at a time when its balance sheet is expanding. While demand held up in today's auction, which is encouraging given recent worries about the U.S. sovereign debt rating and additional upcoming supply, the unexpected bond market selloff and resultant higher yields are a concern on their own.
Since the auction today, 10-year Treasuries have been slammed, spiking the yields up to 3.66%. Equity markets have been selling off as a consequence.... The Dow has given up 70 points since the auction.
WEMU: Not sure they've learned to manage expectations, for instance, they've created expectation for imminent uplisting to NASDAQ. CFO met with 'em Thursday according to their IR rep. While WEMU must wait for official word to announce the uplisting, the unexplained delay creates downside risk.
Also on CC, they were very optimistic about expectations for future revenue growth in 2009, but the basis for their optimism was more like wishful thinking than a massive backlog of orders in the queue.
'peeker
PS> Right now I'm too long WEMU and using HOPE as my primary investment technique (proven highly ineffective in numerous previous trials).
OT: in less than 2 TRGD weeks.
Ithaca may have fallen because of lower than expected Feb-Mar production and less than rumored (70%) overall increase in production.
Still looks like a good buy in energy sector ... but there is probably selling on the news because there's no more great news just around the corner.
'peeker
CDE: It goes w/o saying that CDE 1:10 reverse split is effective today, so I won't mention it.
Good trading to all you manly men (you know who you are)!
'peeker
OT: Your signature monkey appears to be an ancestor (or direct descendant) of Barry Goldwater.
OGC.to/OCANF.pk selling pressure? Probably because it topped a dollar last week, up from below .20 less than 6 months ago???
OR...
People take their profits when they believe the profits are suddenly threatened, for example when they hear/see something like the CEO being relieved of duty by the board, which creates fear of wrongdoing on somebody's part (in this era of B.Madoff, etc.).
I own some, but not enough to keep my durn mouth shut.
That was a good article that supported the CEO, but as a rule of thumb ... the "successful" CEO's suddenly leaving is never good. ... and I doubt this is the emaculate exception.
'peeker
GLPW: Thanks, KiK. This one is doing well today, up about 25% to 1.17x1.25.
I bought yesterday at .95 and checked out today at 1.10.
'peeker (I O U A beer).
10:35 Dollar Slides; PMs sing!!!
The U.S. dollar continues to trade with considerable weakness, which has taken the Dollar Index (-0.6%) to 2009 lows. With the dollar down, commodities are garnering support. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up a healthy 0.4%, which extends its week-to-date gain to 3.0%... While the CRB is up, crude oil prices have been looking for direction this morning. Oil currently trades with a modest 0.1% loss at $61.00 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down 2.2% to $3.52 per contract... Precious metals are giving off a luster, though. Gold was last quoted 0.9% higher at $959.90 per ounce, while silver was quoted 2.0% higher at $14.75 per ounce.
Bob, how would you rate OCG potential for price appreciation vs that of GORO and AGT?
Thanks in advance,
'peeker
OT: Senor Momento, please take your antioxidants and antidepressants at least 30min before reporting to work.
'peeker (yeah, I'm old, but I'll never reach your age)
07:46 Citigroup upgrades POT and MOS to Buy and AGU to Hold saying last week's USDA report indicated lean grain inventories, including significantly tighter corn stocks-to-use. Firm says grain prices don't have a "cushion" -- another major weather event or poor crop for a major producer could move corn prices closer to the $5.00+ range we saw last summer. They note the wet cold weather has significantly delayed much of the US corn crop. The latest crop progress report indicates corn plantings are 62% complete, behind the 85% average rate for 2004- 2008. Firm also says with the easing of credit conditions and stabilization of some industrial and consumer markets, downside risk is lessened.
'peeker: Let's go KCL ... time to get bought out
GFCI was only one of many that were overtouted & often damned on the VMC boards. Yes, I was one of many fools who held GFCI too long.
Here are some more stocks heavily touted here whose prices went to Squatsville: WHAI, NWAU, SHY.v, FMA.v, OIL.to, and quite a few others have gone to squat over time. I've personally lost a heep of money on all these stocks (and others).
However, the list of stocks mentioned here that made me money is much longer! Some Favorites: TGA, IPII, DAAT, AGT, GORO, AGM, TGB, EGY, MDF, CYD, BTO.to .... too many to mention, and it's somehow easier to remember the ones I lost a heep of money on.
'peeker (feeling cathartic after a very good day, thanks to AGT, BTO, GORO)
15:56 FEED: AgFeed Industries files for 3,739,080 Share Common Stock offering by Selling Stockholders (4.63 -0.28)
13:31 Pimco's Gross says U.S. dollar, stocks, bonds selling off on fears that U.S. at risk of losing AAA rating - Reuters
Dollar chart shows nasty downtrend. Is it any wonder that Oil is above $60/bbl and Gold is up another $11 today?
Fornicating Financials
OT: Geithner says economy showing signs of stabilizing, markets are starting to heal - Reuters
Geithner also says he does not believe TARP provides viable solution to challenges faced by California, other states - Reuters
'peeker: Hmmm, let's see, Ahhhhnold is no Democrat, and Geithner is no Shriver, is he?
OT: Today the market wants to open down about 1-1.5%. It looks like financials are rolling over. That's stinky, sorta like Kozuh's elevator. Good luck!
'peeker
08:36 China Grows More Picky About Debt-- New York Times
The New York Times reports leaders in both Washington and Beijing have been fretting openly about the mutual dependence — some would say codependence — created by China's vast holdings of United States bonds. China is growing more picky about which American debt it is willing to finance, and is changing laws to make it easier for Chinese companies to invest abroad the billions of dollars they take in each year by exporting to America. For its part, the United States is becoming relatively less dependent on Chinese financing. China has actually bought Treasury bonds at an accelerating pace over the last year. But the borrowing needs of the United States government have grown even faster. So China represents a rapidly shrinking share of overall purchases of Treasury securities. Financial statistics released by both countries in recent days show that China paradoxically stepped up its lending to the American government over the winter even as it virtually stopped putting fresh money into dollars. This combination is possible because China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes. China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries. China now earns more than $50 billion a year in interest from the United States. Since November, China has been buying more Treasury bills, with a maturity of a year or less, than Treasuries with longer maturities. This gives China the option of cashing out its positions in a hurry, by not rolling over its investments into new Treasury bills as they come due should inflation in the United States start rising and make Treasury securities less attractive. The government has been buying a wider range of assets and encouraging the private sector to invest more money overseas. Iron ore has been piling up on Chinese docks, government stockpiles of crude oil and grain are being expanded and stockpiles are being started for products like gasoline, diesel and sugar. After six years of silence, China unexpectedly disclosed last month that it had been gradually buying gold from domestic producers. A person in periodic contact with China's central bank, who insisted on anonymity to preserve his access, said that a Chinese central banker complained to him last year that "we have so much money and there's so little gold, we can't buy much without driving up the price."
GORO: Gold Resource Corporation Intercepts High-Grade Gold and Silver, Including 1m of 37.2 g/t Gold and 1.8m of 15.7 g/t Gold, Expanding the La Arista Deposit Vein System
On Thursday May 21, 2009, 8:00 am EDT
DENVER, CO--(MARKET WIRE)--May 21, 2009 -- Gold Resource Corporation (GRC) (OTC BB:GORO.OB - News) (Frankfurt:GIH.F - News) is pleased to report that its first drill hole from its new drilling campaign continues to intercept high-grade gold and silver mineralization including 1 meter of 37.2 g/t (1.2 ounce/tonne) gold and 1.8 meters of 15.71 g/t (0.51 ounce/tonne) gold. These new intercepts expand the La Arista deposit vein system. La Arista is one of GRC's three high-grade deposits discovered to date at its El Aguila project in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. GRC targets production at its El Aguila Project in mid-2009, subject to obtaining the remaining permits, regulatory approvals, equipment deliveries and construction schedules.
Details at: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Resource-Corporation-iw-15314220.html
Example of "SwingTrader" Daily Alert from Briefing.com:
Wednesday Reversal Suggests Further Weakness Before Memorial Weekend
Wednesday started off strong with the SPX running up over Tuesday's 916 high, but after the first hour (10:30am EST) the momentum slowed off the 924 area and we saw a correction down to 908 into midday. A minor bounce to 915 during the early afternoon led to some aggressive selling pressure during the final hour. The Dow closed -52, SPX -4.6, Nasdaq -6.7, and Russell down -3.9. Financials, Computer Hardware, Utilities and Retailers paced the way lower while strength was maintained among Gold, Commodities, and Healthcare Providers.
The SPX chart below shows price leaving a key reversal day after Tuesday's "doji" rest day upon Monday's rally. The underlying bias remains positive as long as price stays above its rising 20-day ema. The neutral RSI-5 and A/D line readings suggest we could go in either direction, so look to just "go with the flow."
The only thing that bothers me as a trader is following an "obvious" technical signal, as it tends to "trap" more often than not. What I mean is when "everyone" sees that Wednesday was a clear "reversal day," then "the trade" is to be Short. However, you just can't rule out the possibility of morning weakness reversing during the afternoon, or a gap up that maybe squeezes higher, or even an "inside day" that just sits there. The "neutral" readings in the RSI-5 and A/D lines suggest we could really go either way ahead of the 3-day Memorial Day weekend (Market closed on Monday). My guess is to lean bearish into early weakness, but be prepared for a bounce attempt off key support levels especially if the selling very aggressive.
First resistance zone lies in the 910/911 area, followed by the 916 area. Above that and I'd expect a squeeze back up to 925 or higher into the weekend. Look for initial support around the "psychological" 900/901 area, followed by the 896/898 area. Below that watch the 20-ema near 888, followed by last week's lows around 878/882.
SECTORS: GOLD stocks and CRUDE breakout as the US Dollar breaks down. SEMIS appear to have a Head & Shoulder Top in play. RETAILERS could be starting to roll-over. FINANCIALS are teetering along 2-month uptrend line.
08:06 China Govt: Energy-Efficiency Subsidies To Increase Demand-- Dow Jones
China's plan to subsidize makers of energy-efficient products will increase domestic demand by CNY400 billion-CNY500 billion (approx USD $58-73 bln) each year while reducing electricity consumption, the economic planning agency said Thursday. Under the plan, China will subsidize producers of energy-efficient home appliances, including air conditioners, refrigerators and personal computers, according to a statement posted on the National Development and Reform Commission's Web site. The NDRC didn't specify the amount Beijing will spend on the subsidies or provide a timeframe. China already offers subsidies for some goods, such as energy-efficient vehicles and lighting products. The program comes as China, a big exporter of electronic products, has been hurt by the world economic slump. Beijing has encouraged exporters to sell some of their products in the local market, and has made it a long-term goal to reduce pollution and use energy more efficiently.
08:06 Renewable energy industries ask Obama to speed loan guarantees - NY Times
NY Times reports worried that an important loan-guarantee program has ground to a standstill, renewable energy industry associations sent a letter Wednesday to President Obama urging him to speed the program along. The signers represented virtually every type of clean energy — wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, combined heat and power, and biomass — and reflected the industry's concern that a loan guarantee program for clean energy projects approved in the stimulus package was stuck in the federal bureaucracy, as has been a similar loan program that predates the stimulus. The letter cited "disagreements" between the Department of Energy and the Office of Management and Budget over regulations to carry out the loan guarantees. Three months have gone by since the stimulus packaged passed, the letter stated, "and we have little confidence that ongoing discussions between D.O.E. and the Office of Management and Budget over these regulations will produce a satisfactory result in a timely manner."
15:04 FOMC Minutes (may be what's causing a late selloff)
https://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/InPlayEQ/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=InPlayEqPopup&ArticleId=NS20090520150422TakingStock
The minutes from the April 29 FOMC meeting contained a lot of information the market already knew. One prevailing theme was the thinking that there were tentative signs in the economic data that suggested the pace of economic decline has slowed. That view notwithstanding, the minutes also showed that the Fed downgraded its real GDP projections for 2009, 2010 and 2011.
In reading through the minutes, it became clear that committee members have a much more guarded view of recovery prospects than the market seems to have these days.
The conservative views, we suspect, are somewhat ingrained for policymakers who appreciate the vagaries of economic forecasting and the seriousness of the global economic slowdown that followed the financial crisis.
In other words, Fed officials would rather err on the side of conservatism at this point when it comes to economic forecasts given that the pool of data pointing to stabilization still isn't that deep in the grand scheme of things.
There was some discussion among members that a further increase in the amount of purchases of agency and Treasury securities may be needed at some point to spur a faster recovery, but all members felt it was appropriate to wait further to see how policy actions implemented to date influence the economy and financial conditions before adjusting the size and timing of such purchases.
The stock market has digested the minutes with the same sense of aplomb that it has digested most data of late, choosing to stay focused on the fact that things are less bad than before and pushing the consideration that things could deteriorate again to the far reaches of its mind.
We'd be careful not to put too much stock (no pun intended) in the market's initial reaction given that the ranks of traders driving the market have already started to thin ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
In general, we'd characterize the minutes from the April 29 FOMC meeting as being more cautious-sounding than anything else but, for the most part, not all that surprising for market participants.
Below is a table of the Fed's updated central tendency projections for real GDP, the unemployment rate, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation for the 2009-2011 period.
Fed Economic Projections (central tendencies as of May 2009)
2009 2010 2011
Change in real GDP -2.0 to -1.3 2.0 to 3.0 3.5 to 4.8
January projection -1.3 to -0.5 2.5 to 3.3 3.8 to 5.0
Unemployment rate 9.2 to 9.6 9.0 to 9.5 7.7 to 8.5
January projection 8.5 to 8.8 8.0 to 8.3 6.7 to 7.5
PCE inflation 0.6 to 0.9 1.0 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.9
January projection 0.3 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.5 0.9 to 1.7
Core PCE inflation 1.0 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.3 0.8 to 1.6
January projection 0.9 to 1.1 0.8 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.5
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
First-round applications for China government BIPV subsidies total 500MWp- Digitimes
The China government has seen applicants asking for subsidies for BIPV (building-integrated photovoltaic) projects totaling 500MWp in the first round of applications under its solar subsidization program, according to industry sources in Taiwan. The government is offering subsidies of 20 yuan (US$2.9)/W for projects with a minimum installation size of 50KW. The first round of applications already closed on May 15, and the application deadline for the second round is August 2009, the sources said. It is uncertain how the China government will examine the applications or whether there will be a maximum subsidy for an application, the sources indicated... JASO, LDK, YGE, SOLF, STP, CSIQ
'peeker: Maybe, just maybe, WEMU will gain an advantage from this Chinese gov't support as well.
WEMU not moooooving up either; woe is me!
CFO said in CC last week that response from NASDAQ regarding uplisting application is imminent, and CFO is meeting with NASDAQ in NYC this week to discuss.
Risk: Even if it moves up to NASDAQ, the low number of outstanding shares may keep it from gaining much trading volume (like SMED, which just uplisted a couple of weeks ago with little impact to stock price or daily volume).
Wade, didn't you sell a significant portion of your AGM last week when it moved from under $4 to over $8?
I've watched it and it appears to be moving with financials. In fact it was up to 6.75. It's not like it hasn't moved at all, just that it is settling back after the big move last week. In fact it's still up over 50% from where it was before earnings.
Gold Targets Record After $950, Mizuho Says: Technical Analysis
By Glenys Sim
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise to a record, possibly driven higher by weakness in the dollar, should the precious metal first “hold clearly” above $950 an ounce, Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
A rise to more than that level would take gold above a so- called resistance point, according to a note and table yesterday from Nicole Elliott, London-based senior technical analyst at Mizuho. Resistance prices, listed by Elliot in the table, may identify clusters of sell orders.
“While we continue to favor an eventual break to new record highs, only when it holds clearly above $950 per ounce will bullish momentum kick in,” she wrote, without giving a timeframe. “This may be due to generalized U.S. dollar weakness, courtesy of U.S. government largesse, rather than renewed appetite for precious metals.”
Gold, which tends to move in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency, reached a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, 2008 and last rose to more than $950 an ounce on March 23. The precious metal traded today at $928.15 an ounce at 2:22 p.m. in Singapore, about 2.3 percent less than the $950 threshold.
The Dollar Index, traded through Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to track the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, has decreased 8.3 percent since reaching a three-year high on March 4.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered rates to close to zero and is buying government and corporate bonds to fight the recession in the world’s largest economy. The policy, known as quantitative easing, increases the supply of money.
Still, “gold bugs are currently two a penny -- always a worrying sign,” Elliott wrote, referring to backers of the precious metal as an investment. “More so when prices are going broadly nowhere and one adds in storage and opportunity costs.”
Bullion has risen 5.5 percent this year as investors’ concern about the health of the global economy and expectations for a build in inflation increased demand for the metal as a store of value.
To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at Gsim4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 20, 2009 03:23 EDT
A pun: AGT makes me think of the space program. The guys at Houston ground control had to be thinking, "To the moon, Apollo, to the moon!!!"
However, now that Apollo has come back down to earth, I guess we have to wait to see what's next. Hopefully not another banker screwjob.
I agree that we must expect to see a PR before the CC on Thursday. Two reasons: (1) News is due. (2) The CC is occurring 6 days after the earnings release.
Of course if the news turns out to be something like a Form4 notice of insider selling, the spacecraft could very well crash.
'peeker (impatiently waiting for the CEO to fire the boooooster rockets)
GORO getting creamed today (not in a good way), now down to 4.10/sh as gold is down about $10/oz. Time for our fairhaired Reid brothers to get those permits approved and start cranking up all those diesel engines at the mill...
Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE)(TSX:CDM)(ASX:CXC) today announced that its board of directors has authorized a one-for-ten reverse split of its common stock, which was approved by Coeur stockholders at the Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2009. The reverse split will be effective at 6:01 p.m. EDT on May 26, 2009.
'peeker says: Current shares outstanding? 686.3 Million
Post split? 68.6 million (still plenty to make a market)
Will price be hurt? Have to wait and see, but typically different buyers (larger) for shares priced over $10/share than those under $2. Of course, higher price makes it easier to buy on margin OR to short...
AGT hedging: Somebody probably understands exactly how the mark-to-market adjustments will need to be applied quarterly to AGT earnings. If so please explain.
Accountingwise, I'm trying to understand whether we should expect quarterly adjustments to earnings based on the ENTIRE REMAINING amount of the hedged position vs. price of gold at end of each qtr? In other words if the gold price on June 30 is less than it was on March 31st, do we potentially get a credit to earnings (vs. price of gold at end of prior qtr) instead of a penalty?
Cash flow is a wonderful thing, but I'd like to also track how earnings will be impacted each future quarter as Black Fox production and future Grey Fox production are putting cash in the bank.
It's hard to even ask the question clearly, so if anyone can explain how quarterly earnings adjustments due to hedging thru 2013 will be calculated, please clarify.
'peeker
AGT will need to get cracking on their gold production and sales. Their big gold hedge position thru 2013 greatly obscures the profitability over the next 4 years, but it will obviously cause a quarterly charge against profits as long as gold stays above $876. I'm not sure what the breakeven production volume will be when gold sells at $1000, $1100 or even $1500/oz, but from here on, AGT price performance will continue to be negatively impacted by net profit/share.
I wonder if they can undo the hedge after they pay back the $70million to the RMB buggers or if they will be burdened with this ongoing charge against earnings thru 2013, after which time much of the mine life may have passed beyond prime production rates.
Not accusing AGT of doing anything wrong, but just scratching my head about the ongoing negative impact of the hedge on earnings thru 2013. Also I'm not sure about the schedule of hedged ounces per year, that is, whether it if front loaded, back loaded, or evenly spread.
At any rate, the AGT management and production team needs to ensure the mill gets up and stays up to speed over the life of Black Fox and Grey Fox (for which estimated/proven resource details due soon).
'peeker
PS> Yeah, I'm showing a little impatience here (again), and it makes GORO look like geniuses for selling large stakes to Hothschilds vs. the dirty rotten RMB buggers. On the bright side, production will be ramping up quickly for AGT and they named the mines after foxes, not trickster coyotes.