Value Microcaps Junior Energy

[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #21 Deadline Less than 7 Hours Away

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #21 Deadline on Friday

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[SSKILLZ1]

Savvy Pick 10 Contest #1 Deadline a Little more than 5 Hour Away

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[SSKILLZ1]

Savvy Pick 10 Contest #1 Deadline Before Friday Market Close (6/28)

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Contest Announcement Post

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #20 Deadline Slightly more than 5 Hours Away (5/17/24)

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #20 Deadline Friday (5/17/24)

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[littlejohn]

Russia likes to make their biggest ground

offensive in winter on cold

packed ground...

So that is why they may reduce oil

exports now, not production, since they

may use more for war effort...

About May that likely changes...

S.A. has enough spare production from

only the reduced export amounts to

deflate the market if they chose to dump...

S.A. has done it before in past history

when U.S. oil production was expanding...

Seems the biggest threat to markets with

that downside potential, although very,

very unlikely to happen...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Never trusted stated production capacity from OPEC and especially Saudis. But like you say, they could change their mind and dramatically change the short term outlook for prices. Russia is another threat because their economy sucks and Putin has to finance his Ukraine expedition. One of these days, he may get pushed against the wall and have to raise more cash. Certainly he needs revenues to finance his tank replacement program because they have lost so many.

[littlejohn]

Saudi Arabia excess production capacity is big now...

Other than the 2020 anomaly year,

Do you remember when it was this big

or if ever bigger?...

It seems a lingering potential weapon

if they change their focus...

REI has gotten to cheap to get much

traction from investors...A lot of traders

flipping it now...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Have gotten less enthusiastic about REI. My biggest issue is their "smart and disciplined" approach to acquiring and exploiting their Central Basin vertical wells. These are very cheap to drill but very low in production per well. 100bpd doesn't get REI on any Permian producer radar for takeover/acquisition. That eliminates one of the best reasons to hold small producers. They are in the right Basin(Permian) but are holding lots of vertical wells that not many others are bothering with.

It's been painful to watch profitable producers not getting any market love but I got tired of waiting. I am also worried about the possibility of an oversupply of oil in 2024. OPEC has been limiting production but the world economy could hit a speedbump that will limit consumption further. Not believing that it's permanent or long lasting but could create some volatility in pricing.

I sold my REI but still holding an option that expires in 6/24.

[littlejohn]

REI still seems good to add to cheap,

until the oil and natural gas price

retreats find better footing,

maybe in March or later...

*This doesn't appear the time to chase

any companies because of short term

spike in oil price unrelated to demand

improving from seasonal low levels...


REI has oil rich reserves that appear

to be much more value than the

price of admission...

So we watch...LJ

[Bobwins]

Slow but painfully slow........

Prospera has done what they said they were going to do but it's taken a long time! Latest PR says 2300boepd at year end so big pop from 590 boepd avg in Q3.

2024 should mark the beginning of solid profits for Prospera. Their horizontal strategy appears to be working and the medium oil wells look like they will perform better than expected. Naturally they didn't get to drill all 6 because of delayed permits and weather but the opportunity is still there.

In the latest youtube video from Mining Stock Education, CEO thinks they will get to 3500boepd by yearend thru drilling and they are working on a purchase that "could" boost total production to near 5,000boepd by year end 2024. The acquisition sounds like lighter oil so should have less of a discount to WTI. Another positive is that the Canadians are FINALLY going to have a pipeline that will allow ocean export of oil and that should narrow the WTI discount that always hurts Canadian heavy oil producers. I haven't found any big negatives in Prospera. They have pretty much done what they said they would do but it just took longer than I expected. They are careful with their money and have paid down a lot of the past due debt that was on the books from the previous mgmt. They have been very careful and deliberate in working to correct old problems. It's frustrating that it has taken so long but it is heavy oil and the Canadian winter hasn't done them any favors either. I think moving towards lighter oil mix is smart and will reduce some of the wild volatility in their production levels.

Still holding shares with a cost of US$.0808 so down about 22% but I think this is the year they produce consistent profits. We'll see how oil holds up. I think oil prices have some downside potential this year.

[dr_airtime]

PEI.V (I'm still here!)

Bob - thoughts on Prospera? Looks like they achieved their goals in 2023 but are still close to 52 week lows so I'm interested!

I laughed when I read the latest press release as it looks like through should have said "receivership" but instead said "receivables" in reference to the financial condition of their JV partners on one (or a few) assets? This is probably why they are at 52 week lows.

I've done extremely well on energy coming out of Covid and am now mostly on #fintwit (twitter) under @energyrealist if anyone interested.

Thanks in advance Bob!

[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #19 Less Than 6 Hour Away

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #19 Deadline Friday (12/29)

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[Bobwins]

Prospera Energy GXRFF/PEI.v US$.0959

Prospera Energy is a Canadian micro producing around 900boepd of heavy oil. Company has been restructuring for the past two years and recently began a 18 well drill program to increase production from around 900boepd to around 2,000boepd by 12/23.

Here is an update PR regarding the program so far:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/09/12/2741280/0/en/Prospera-Energy-Inc-Announces-Horizontal-Infill-Drilling-Program-Update-and-Interest-Payable-Reduction-Settlement.html

Prospera is attempting to recover from the low oil prices of several years ago. The company was heavily in debt to vendors and was a victim of the low oil prices of a couple years ago. Since it's heavy oil, they get a discounted price from WTI.

In addition to working with the vendors to get them repaid, the company has been studying how to efficiently increase production and recovery of the significant 400million barrels of heavy oil reserves. The wells the company inherited were shallow vertical wells. The company has decided to reduce their footprint by drilling horizontal wells to replace the many vertical wells. As they complete their horizontal wells, they can dismantle and abandon the vertical wells and eliminate the liability and work required to service the many vertical wells.

The severe winter last year drastically reduced production from around 1,000boepd in Q3 2022 to 250boepd in Q1 2023. This delayed their drill program but the current program should provide significant increases in production and revenues, which should allow Prospera to bring payables current and grow the company on a profitable basis.

[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #18 Deadline Today Is less than 7 Hours Away

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest #18 Deadline Friday

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[Bobwins]

vtle $45.08 Vital Energy (used to be Laredo)

This is a Texas focused energy company with new mgmt, trying to regain market respect. Market cap $760million. After 2022 annual earnings report, P/E is 1.13. Company has a lot of gas heavy land so market has been negative. Mgmt is going to focus on Howard County drill sites, which are oil heavy and intends to increase oil ratio as the year progresses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-announces-fourth-quarter-211500357.html

After a recent acquisition, company is increasing 2023 guidance
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-provides-select-preliminary-104500611.html

[Bobwins]

TCF.cn/TRLEF US$.3092

Been adding Trillion Energy after selling out in Q4 2022 at around .33. Trillion has gone 4/4 in drilling in 2022. They started well #5 and expect to hit total depth in 10 days and perforate shortly thereafter.

Well #4 was a big one with test results in the Guluc-2 well at 16.35mmcfpd. Well was put on production at 6mmcfpd.

[Bobwins]

Been buying REI on the way down. Bought my last shares at 1.68 right before earnings. Closed today at 1.91. Still below my avg cost of 1.94 but getting closer. REI posted Q1 earnings of 32 million or .17eps(.14 adjusted for one time items.)

Had free cashlflow of 10 million. Full year guidance is for production between 17800 and 18,800boepd.

Oil is around 84% oil and ngl.

Earnings could go down in Q2 because the price of oil and ngas have continued to fall. I expect oil to rebound later this year as China continues it's rebound and production stagnates.

[dr_airtime]

TCF.v/TRLEF

Yes I'm still here sometimes :)

Trillion's Nat Gas price for March is down to USD 12.92/MCF at the end of March vs. USD 31/MCF that was being heavily promoted and marketed to Canadian Investors. Still a great story once Natural Gas prices normalize this year after 2022 Euro Gas Crisis. Back in January I spend a few hours doing research and here is how you go from the EPIAS exchange price in Turkish Lira per 1000m3 to USD/MCF:

Since this took me WAY too long to find a primary source and translate here is how you can vet the US 31/MCF price "marketed" in Trillion's latest presentation. Euro gas crisis peak is over so it will be important to follow prices 2022. Go to the Epias Energy Exchange Istanbul link below and look at the November Monthly Report where gas prices averaged TL 20.518/1,000 cubic metres. Easier to write as TL 20,518/1000 cubic metres. TL 20,518 / 35.3 MCF in 1000 Cubic Metres x 0.053 TL/USD FX = USD 30.8/MCF.

If you look at the current MARCH report you'll see gas was right around TL9,000/1,000 cubic metries at the end of March. At current FX the translation is TL 9,000 / 35.3 MCF in 1000 Cubic Metres x 0.051 TL/USD = USD 12.92/MCF.

EPIAS Monthly Gas Reports

[Bobwins]

Trillion Energy, TCF.v/TRLEF US$.30

Trillion hit a big one in the Black Sea, 16+mcf/day in tests. Put on production at 6mcfpd. Trillion currently gets $17/mcf for their ngas versus $2+ in the US. Trillion bought 5 offshore platforms worth about $6million for peanuts a few years ago. They are drilling mostly known wells that were discovered but never drilled in times of much lower ngas prices. They have drilled 4 wells and hit on all 4. The plan is to drill 11 wells this year and about the same number next year. The known targets will result in about 25 wells to be drilled thru 2024. There are also several exploratory targets that are close enough to the existing platforms to be drilled with extended reach directional wells. Trillion hopes to find several fields like the current SASB field to continue to grow production and reserves.

Revenues started in 11/22 so this is still fairly early. Trillion has a market cap of 110 million. Cashflow should be solid by year end 2023.

[Bobwins]

REI 2.07 Sold out of Ring Energy at the end of 2022 at a loss. i didn't take into account the private shareholders who were paid with REI shares in Q3. I think they have been cashing out steadily, driving the share price down near $2. Ring closed the transaction in 8/31/22 so had one month of the private production in their Q3 results. Ring made .49 in Q3. P/E is going to be around 1!!!

Conservative mgmt, low break even, high oil content in production mix, low cost drilling. Ring should do fine once the private company shareholders dump their shares. Granted it's a lot of shares but sooner or later this should move up to reasonable territory. The financial results for Q4 and 2022 are due 3/10/23. I expect very positive production and financial results.

[Bobwins]

REI 2.07 Sold out of Ring Energy at the end of 2022 at a loss. i didn't take into account the private shareholders who were paid with REI shares in Q3. I think they have been cashing out steadily, driving the share price down near $2. Ring closed the transaction in 8/31/22 so had one month of the private production in their Q3 results. Ring made .49 in Q3. P/E is going to be around 1!!!

Conservative mgmt, low break even, high oil content in production mix, low cost drilling. Ring should do fine once the private company shareholders dump their shares. Granted it's a lot of shares but sooner or later this should move up to reasonable territory. The financial results for Q4 and 2022 are due 3/10/23. I expect very positive production and financial results.

[Bobwins]

Sorry for the late reply. I was not familiar with Pantheon. I listened to most of the 2 hr podcast they had on their recent results. Never seen a company put out such a long explanation. Obviously at 500+million market cap, this is not a small company. They obviously have some big money betting that they are right and they can bring in substantial production from the North Slope. The chart is very good since you asked about the stock. Hope you have some.

The issue that they spent hours explaining is why they hit so much gas in their latest test well. Obviously they are very sensitive to the topic otherwise they wouldn't have spent two hours going over and over it. This worries me. Any time a company has to spend so much time explaining an issue, it's obviously a worry for the markets. The North Slope is far away from user markets. Lots of ngas is NOT what they are looking for. They want light sweet crude that can fill up a mostly empty Trans Alaska Pipeline. They emphasized over and over again how close they are to the Pipeline and the Dawson Highway. So IF they can drill multiple wells and IF it's a high percentage of light sweet crude, this is a big project in a world that doesn't have many places to go besides the Permian Basin.

The cost of the wells is in the high teens of millions so this isn't going to be cheap drilling. They fracked the test well so they need service companies and infrastructure that probably isn't there. Of course if they got a big oil company to jv with them, the service companies would probably spend the time and capital to go up to the North Slope with equipment and source the sand and water.

If you look at the 1 yr chart, the market has been selling this project off. The peak price for the stock was $1.99 in early 2022 so the market cap was US$1.5 billion! versus US$500+million now. So it's not a slam dunk.

I worry about the oil/gas mix, the remote location and the need for big money to step in. I didn't hear that they intend to develop this project themselves. I think they spent all that time on the podcast because they need to convince some deep pockets that this will work. They do have 100% of these projects so that's great. They do have room to give a JV partner a significant share and still retain a decent share for themselves. I am not that familiar with the players that already are working in the North Slope so don't know who their target JV partner might be. Is the project big enough for a new player to step in? Probably. They are talking hundreds of millions of barrels.

For me, this is already fairly expensive and the market isn't terribly enthusiastic about the project. The shares have been positive this year and I do think we need more oil for the intermediate term. World use of oil isn't going away soon enough and yet big oil is paying dividends rather than spending money to look for new oil. Personally I would pass but it could turn out to be a big project but it's probably a few years away and I'm too old to wait! LOL! Good luck and again sorry for the delay in response.

[Gator44]

Hey Bobwins
Are you familiar with
PTHRF. a test well in
North slope near Prudhoe Bay

[Gator44]

Any of you guys look at PTHRF ?
Alaskan Notrh Slope Alkaid 2 well
located off Dalton Hgwy 20 miles south
of Prudhoe Bay. 500+ bpd test well flowing despite sand
blockage.

[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest # 17 Deadline Just a little over 6 Hours Away

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[SSKILLZ1]

Pick 4 Contest # 17 Deadline Friday

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[Bobwins]

PTRUF/PRQ.TO US$1.77

Petrus Energy is a Canadian energy company. I like this one because of the financial results so far, projections for next year AND the mgmt.

Petrus changed mgmt in 2021. Ken Gray took over as CEO. They wanted to increase production but their bank was not helpful so they refinanced their debt. Ken and his brothers put in a tremendous amount of equity resulting in 74% insider ownership. In addition one of the brothers loaned the company $25million for three years in a second lien position to the bank that provides Petrus with a revolving line of credit. In addition to the tremendous equity contribution, Don Gray is the largest shareholder and Chairman, holding 34% of the common shares. Don Gray is also founder and CEO of Peyto,. a natural gas producer that started out as a penny stock and is now a 2.2 billion dollar major in Canadian natural gas production.

Petrus has 122 million shares outstanding.

In the latest Q3 report, Petrus averaged 6,639boepd at 71% gas and 29% liquids. Petrus is projecting exiting 2022 at 10,500boepd.

Guiding for $130-135million capex in 2023 allowing the company to average 13,000 to 13,500boepd. That should result in a 75% increase in production in 2023 as well as a 65% increase in cashflow to C$140-150million depending on commodity prices.

Petrus's main production comes from the Ferrier fields in Alberta. In addition to substantial acreage, Petrus owns the processing facilities for their production.

Petrus has low debt of C$48million. In addition to Ferrier they have substantial acreage positions in Thorsby and Foothills with steady, low decline production. They also have drilling sites in Kakwa which are oil heavy and represent future growth. Petrus focuses on high payback wells that payoff drilling costs within 6 months. They are a leader in this drilling metric.

Petrus is already a success story, starting with an C$.81 share price a year ago vs C$2.44 now. 52week hi was c$3.42. I missed this stock in 2021 but with a double in production coming in 2023, this should still take off.

The change in lending and decrease in debt allowed Petrus to rapidly expand production.

[Bobwins]

TRLEF/TCF.CN +.03 to .3812

Nice pop today. Apparently yesterday was the last day for warrant holders to exercise on a certain set of warrants. Trillion announced an accelerated expiration in late October. So there was heavy selling yesterday as some warrant holders sold stock and signed up to exercise warrants.

Yesterday Trillion announced very good news. Their second well is coming online this week about two weeks after their first well was drilled successfully and came online. This second well is a recompletion. They fixed some bent tubing and perforated a new sand measuring 7 meters. The new sand performed so well in the testing that they decided to just put the new sand on production and go back and perforate the original sands when production drops off.

The recompletion should flow similar volumes to the first well, resulting in about 3MMCFPD net to Trillion from the two wells. Remember Trillion is getting $31/mcf for this gas. 3MMCFPD @$31/mcf = $2.79 million dollars per month gross revenues to Trillion. The pipelines and onshore processing plant are already there and operating. The field has been producing for over 10 years so all the infrastructure is there and already paid for. The onshore gas plant can process up to 75 MMCFPD. Trillion projects a new well will be drilled, completed and producing every 45 days. The next well should come online around early January 2023.

[Bobwins]

TRLEF -.0079 to US$.35

down on good news?? Oil down so this goes down too. Doesn't matter. This new well is another paycheck that will happen every month. First check in December!
Trillion owns 49% of the output so if they run it at 3MMCFPD, Trillion will get 1.5MMCFPD @ $31/mcf!

TRILLION ENERGY ANNOUNCES FLOW TEST RESULTS FOR AKCAKOCA-3 WELLAkcakoca-3 Well Successfully Tested at a Rate of 7.0 MMcf/day
GLOBENEWSWIRE 7:00 AM ET 11/21/2022

Vancouver, B.C. , Nov. 21, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Trillion Energy International Inc.(TRLEF)(“Trillion” or the “Company”) (CSE: TCF) is pleased to announce flow test results for the Akcakoca-3 natural gas well at the SASB gas field, offshore Turkey.


Three sands with a total of 34 metres of natural gas pay were identified for perforation in the Akcakoca-3 well. Upon the first perforation of the upper 7 metre sand occurring, the well immediately experienced a pressure buildup up to 7.0 MMcf/d (32/64” choke). Well head pressure measured 1,400 psi.

Based on initial gas flow and reservoir pressure data from perforation of the first sand, a decision was made to commence producing this zone and perforate the remaining two sands (totaling 27 metres) at a future date, after production from the initial perforated interval starts to decline.

The final production flow rate will ultimately be established at the process facility.

Arthur Halleran CEO of Trillion stated:

“We are very pleased that our multi-well drilling program is off to a very strong start. We are “Two for Two” so far with both South Akcakoca-2 and Akcakoca-3 wells now successfully producing gas. Each well additionally has 10s of metres of identified gas sands ready for perforation and production in the future to keep production levels up. This is a desirable situation for the Company to be in.”

About the Company

Trillion Energy (TRLEF) is focused on natural gas production for Europe and Türkiye with natural gas assets in Türkiye and Bulgaria. The Company is 49% owner of the SASB natural gas field, one of the Black Sea’s first and largest-scale natural gas development projects; a 19.6% (except three wells with 9.8%) interest in the Cendere oil field; and in Bulgaria, the Vranino 1-11 block, a prospective unconventional natural gas property. More information may be found on www.sedar.com, and our website.

Contact
Art Halleran: 1-250-996-4211
Corporate offices: 1-778-819-1585
e-mail: [e-mail]
Website: www.trillionenergy.com

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward -Looking Statements

This news release may contain certain forward-looking information and statements, including without limitation, statements pertaining to the Company's ability to obtain regul a tory a pproval of the executive officer and director appointments . All statements included herein, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking information and such information involves various risks and uncertainties. Trillion does not undertake to update any forward-looking information except in accordance with applicable securities laws.

These statements are not guaranteeing of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Accordingly, actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. These factors include unforeseen securities regulatory challenges, COVID, oil and gas price fluctuations, operational and geological risks, the ability of the Company to raise necessary funds for development; the outcome of commercial negotiations; changes in technical or operating conditions; the cost of extracting gas and oil may be too costly so that it is uneconomic and not profitable to do so and other factors discussed from time to time in the Company’s filings on www.sedar.com, including the most recently filed Annual Report on Form 20-F and subsequent filings for the first quarter of 2022. For a full summary of our oil and gas reserves information for Turkey, please refer to our Forms F-1,2,3 51-101 filed on www.sedar.com, and or request a copy of our reserves report effective December 31, 2021 and our Prospective Resource report effective October 31, 2021.

Source: Trillion Energy International Inc.(TRLEF)
2022 GlobeNewswire, Inc.

[Bobwins]

Research Capital reiterated their buy recommend on Trillion Energy and their price target of US$1.35. Report shows projected cashflows and projects 1.35 as a reasonable 3X cashflow.

https://mcusercontent.com/5e269838a16742a97c90596c2/files/9ddac5b5-85ab-85d2-e245-5bb6978631ae/TCF_11_14_22.pdf

[Bobwins]

REI $3.09

The more I look, the more I like. Ring Energy completed their purchase of the private oil company in August and so included results of only one month of the combined companies. Production increased from 10K to 13K. In Q4, with all three months from both companies, Production will jump to 18K to 19K.

Ring operates in areas of the Permian that are not shale. They drill horizontal wells and frack but at much lower levels than in the true shale. Their land already has oil porosity. The fracking helps but isn't as necessary to get oil to flow. This leads to slower declines in production over the life of the well AND allows the company to apply secondary and tertiary methods to squeeze additional barrels out of the ground. So the life of these wells in the 30 to 50 year range of economic production. Offsetting these positives is the fact that these are not big wells. The initial production levels are in the 300-700bpd range. It takes a lot of wells to boost company wide production.

Like most US oil producers, Ring is not seeking production at all costs. They seek positive free cashflow, paying for all new drilling out of profits AND still having cashflow in excess of capex. Their most recent guidance is for 2023 production slightly higher than Q4 guidance of 18-19K. They also have to pay down debt from the acquisition that just closed. Their line of credit has $100+million plus in excess credit limit and given they are at a free cashflow level, this should be an adequate cushion. Company goal is to reduce outstandings next year from excess cashflow.

Ring is almost a pure play on oil. The level of liquids in their production in the 90+% range, counting oil + NGL. I think ngas pipelines in Texas will reach capacity soon and that will limit oil production since flaring is no longer allowed. Ring should have less problem with excess ngas production.

The oil porosity and the lack of need to frack as much leads to low cost oil wells. Ring has an extremely low cost of break even. Their break even is in the $25 to $30 range. This also leads to quicker drill times and completions. Wells can be drilled and turned to production in less than two weeks.

In addition to these cheaper horizontal wells, Ring also has hundreds of cheap vertical wells. The average production of these wells is in the 150bpd range. Again, not going to attract headline news but contributes to the company's low break even levels and long life assets.

Bottom line, I think Ring Energy will substantially increase net profits and cashflow in Q4 as production rises from 13K to 18K. They are very cost conscious and operating in areas that provide low cost, high return opportunities. The mgmt team founded Arena Resources and took that stock from nothing to a big cashout.

[Bobwins]

LEU +.42 to 39.87

LEU was cruising in the mid forties until they announced Q3 earnings. Big drop in revs and profits so stock crashed to around $30 on Nov 9th.

I bought more at $35, 35.17 and 31.50 on the way down. LEU is the only licensed supplier of HALEU in the US. HALEU is projected to be the version of fuel for advanced design reactors going forward, including most of the new Small Modular Reactors(SMR) that are on the drawing board.

Then Thursday the price started recovering based on an announcement out of the Dept of Energy.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-centrus-energy-pact-next-165950899.html

LEU and Dept of Energy will share the $150million dollar cost to produce a limited amount of HALEU at the Centrus plant. This subsidy is obviously designed to encourage US based production of the fuel for the future and allow LEU to get ready for regular production in the future to fuel the US based nuclear plants.

[Bobwins]

RING ENERGY REI, -.12 to 3.08

Ring Energy is a Permian explorer and producer. They recently closed the purchase of a private energy company with wells and land in the Permian. Q3 results included 1 month of combined company.

Q3 they earned 1.09eps but that included a large derivative profit from hedging of $42million. After eliminating hedging, adjusted net was similar to Q2 of .28eps.

Assuming they can maintain .28eps, they are trading for around fwd p/e of 3.

They are guiding for 2023 production of ~18,000 boepd versus 13,000boepd they produced in Q3. I expect improved results from the gradual expansion of production as the new year unfolds. +~35% seems reasonable.

.28 X 4 = 1.12 fwd eps. X 1.35= 1.51 fwd eps or about a 2 fwd p/e.

Opened a small position. Investors may be spooked by share issuance to fund purchase and waiting to see how combined company performs. Also the private company owners could sell REI to cash out and cause near term share price weakness.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ring-energy-announces-record-results-222600475.html

[Bobwins]

TRLEF/TCF.cn +.0289 to US$.365

Gas if flowing. Trillion turned on their first SASB well and it's flowing about 3MMCFPD. Operator is monitoring and will likely increase it over time to 3.5 to 5 MMCFPD range.

2nd well is a recompletion. Well had bent tubing that prevented full production. Installed bigger tubing, fished old wiring out of hole and preparing to perforate well this week. Should turn to gas production by this time next week. Expect similar production to AK-2.

First paycheck should be mid December at $31/mcf! Trillion's partner and well operator is the national energy company of Turkey. Trillion has 49% interest in SASB field.

This is my biggest position. Company is guiding for 17 wells to be completed in the next two years. Expects each well to take approximately 45 days from spud to production. Has funds in hand to complete first 7 wells. Expects cashflow from these initial wells to pay for remaining 10. After the first 17 wells, Trillion will explore several prospect sites that have similar characteristics to SASB field where the first 17 wells are located. Onshore production facility can accomodate up to 75 MMCPD and can be expanded. Likely won't need expansion for this initial production phase of 17 wells. If they average 3 to 5 MMCFPD, that will total 51 to 85MMCFPD.

[Bobwins]

TRLEF -.0144 to .3156

Trillion Energy down a bit today on pretty good news. Total depth and testing in the next few days. I've seen some pretty good pre testing PR's that turned to dust but overall the drilling has gone as planned and on time and on budget is a good start to a good well. We'll find out in the next couple of weeks. After that, very quick turnaround to production and cash because of existing undersea pipelines and onshore processing facility.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trillion-energy-announces-td-logging-130000476.html

[Bobwins]

VET 23.18

Vermillion has had a big drop since hitting a peak of over US$30 a couple of months ago. Part was due to falling oil prices, hitting an interim peak of $122 in June and falling to below $80 in Sept. VET fell to a low of 18.41 in late September before rallying recently to today's price. One factor in the share price decline is the excess profits tax in Europe. VET gets most of its free cashflow from it's European natural gas production. Prices in Europe have been crazy high and VET has about 10Kbpoed production from natural gas. They are due to increase their share of the offshore Corrib field production late this year or early next when their purchase of additional interest from a jv partner is completed.

The tax will likely take a 25% bite out of VET's free cashflow. Still a very profitable company with increasing ngas production in Europe. They have production in Canada, US and Europe and should fare well in the next few years.

[Bobwins]

Trillion Energy TRLEF/TCF.cn +.02 to US$.3485 Trillion has been moving up lately as they finally have a drill bit working. No results, although the first well is a recompletion of a previously drilled hole. Should be low risk but they need these first two wells to produce as advertised to avoid a collapse in price. Lots of optimism built into share price.

There are positive reasons for optimism. Offshore drill platforms are already built and in place. 5, I think. The first 17 wells are very low risk due to previous drilling and testing. They were just never produced in a much lower ngas price environment. In addition, Trillion has pipelines already in place to an onshore facility with 75mmcfd capacity. So they drill, complete and almost immediately can produce ngas. That doesn't happen normally. Also their prices are locked in at US$30/mcf. Not Turkish Lira. Which is excellent because Turkey is experiencing 80% inflation. Don't want to be holding Turkish currency.

There are definitely risks due to Black Sea location, Turkey country risk and the normal offshore production issues. But in addition to the first 17 wells, Trillion holds rights to several exploration locations that could be huge. The plan is to use the first 17 wells cashflow to explore nearby locations from the existing platforms.

First well scheduled to be drilled, completed and producing by November. Short wait to find out if they can deliver.

[CPTMatt]

SQZ I have been adding here and there. Biggest downside risk is dry hole on the Eigg drilling underway but the company is cheap regardless based on FCF.

If you don't read Alexander Stahel you should
https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH?t=G9ztsoz9E0OaQy3-HMK2CA&s=09

[Bobwins]

CTRA $28.78

I have been holding SD for exposure to ngas in the US. Been disappointed in relatively poor performance, in spite of generally strong ngas prices. So bought some Coterra Energy on Friday to see if a different horse can help me.

Coterra is 50/50 oil gas. They have exposure to Permian, Marcellus and Anadarko basins. They are relatively big cap at 22 billion vs only 700 million for SD. They have big acreage and reserves. While I was looking for primarily ngas exposure, I like the 50/50 balance of their production and the cheap production costs in the Marcellus for ngas. Coterra has a low p/e of 7 vs 3 for SD. I think market likes strong margins at CTRA AND growth in production.

SD has been maintaining production by opening shut in wells from the prior price collapse of a few years ago. As a result, they have very low capex requirements and NO HEDGES! So I love the free cashflow but apparently the market does not. So even though I will stubbornly hold SD, I wanted to try a bigger cap energy stock to see if I can capture what I think will be an energy bull market going forward.

[Bobwins]

market will want to see production and $$ flowing before they reward Trillion stock price. November will seem like a long way off in the distance. And that's assuming no glitches, which are entirely possible on the first well. Stock is up a little today at .358 but off recent highs.

Trillion Energy's SASB Natural Gas Drilling Program Begins
The Company has started its multi-well development program at SASB targeting much needed natural gas in times of scarcity and record high prices

September 19, 2022 - Vancouver, B.C. - Trillion Energy International Inc. (“Trillion” or the “Company”)(CSE: TCF) (OTCQB: TRLEF) (Frankfurt: Z62) is pleased to have commenced its multi-well drilling program on the SASB natural gas field, upon successful arrival of the Uranus Rig which was mobilized last week after delays due to maintenance and weather conditions in the Black Sea.

The Uranus Rig is situated at the Akçakoca platform where the first wells are being drilled. A total of three directional wells will be drilled from the Akçakoca platform, plus one recompletion of an existing well will occur. The Company estimates the four operations will be completed within 6 months.

The Company planned to pair completion of the Akçakoca wells to reduce cost and rig skid times, but each well will produce gas upon completion and sold to market. First gas production is expected early November 2022.

After the work at the Akçakoca platform, the Uranus rig will move to the next of the three platforms at SASB to continue the work program. The Company has plans to drill/complete these initial 7 wells followed by another estimated 10 wells prior to further exploration occurring.

Arthur Halleran, CEO, stated:

“The commencement of drilling operations marks a transformative step towards the Company’s bright future, with drilling to lock in much-needed locally sourced gas supplies for the winter months at prices over US$30/mcf. These long reach advanced engineering production wells will allow gas production to immediately be sold under our existing gas contract where we get paid monthly and can then use the revenues to continue to drill new wells.”
The Company’s development program initially includes seven production wells coming online during a time when acute natural gas shortages are menacing Europe and Turkiye. Drilling of additional 10 targets are expected to follow. Natural gas prices continue to spike, breaking historical records as the prospect of a cold winter looms with the worst shortages expected yet to come.



Trillion Energy is an international gas and oil producer. The Company has a simple clear strategy to add value to shareholders by developing extremely profitable proven non-produced gas reserves on the SASB gas field through existing infrastructure and facilities commencing 2022.
Visit our website

For Investor inquiries please email:
[e-mail]
Director & CEO
Arthur Halleran
[phone]

Corparate Offices
[phone]
Admin Office (Canada)
Suite 700-838 West Hastings St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 0A6 Canada

Operations (Turkey)
Turan Gunes Bulvari, Park Oran Ofis Plaza
180-y, Daire:45, Kat:14, 06450
Oran, Cankaya, Ankara, Turkey

[BottomBounce]

Should You Invest in Silver as an Inflation Hedge?
Silver can help diversify an investment portfolio, but as an inflation hedge it's had mixed results.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/investing-101/articles/how-to-invest-in-silver #Silver #inflation

[BottomBounce]

$NAK

[Bobwins]

Trillion Energy TRLEF .3898

Finally Drillship Uranus is at the site. Should start drilling in the next few days. These are not exploratory wells. The wells have been drilled and tested previously. The platforms and undersea piples are in place, as is the onshore processing facility. Trillion will drill new wells because of the time since they were drilled but should be very low risk drilling.

Here is a research report forecasting target price of C$1.35 after full production in 2023.

https://mcusercontent.com/5e269838a16742a97c90596c2/files/5ff37a7a-e306-edc6-3a9d-7edc27742f48/TCF_09_13_22.pdf

[Bobwins]

On their website, they said news in October! Hope it’s good news! US$ is hurting us a bit on Serica

[CPTMatt]

SQZ From what I have read it sounds like the windfall profit tax is going away with this price cap and the UK government is just going to pay the difference.

I have a hard time seeing how the price cap doesn't add incremental demand.

I am eager to hear news on the Eigg drilling that spud back in July

[Bobwins]

Serica, SQZ..L still sliding a bit. Down to 3.6550 from 3.73 yesterday.

Russians have shut off gas to Europe but apparently investors think problem will be solved by price controls and storage approaching 90% full. I don't think so.