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shiloh- you make a very good couple of points, because in my opinion Smiths and Morpho did pull out the clout stick and use it some six to nine months or so after IMSC passed cargo testing and was placed on the approved cargo list. Read the following exchange from the special April 2013 cc about what is going on in the market re: cargo approval and how it relates to sales. First, let me say this, I for one do NOT believe that Dr. Jones is lying as ceo Bolduc supports mostly what Dr. Jones relates to a caller that sa ids as an analyst. This also mildly speaks to roles of Jones&McGann the nowak has presented:
CALLER slated as Unidentified Analyst:
Right. Yeah. You can call me Your Royal Highness. I have a kind of tri-part question based on the grandfathering of the competitors. Now, that certification that they grandfathered in expires when, September, October, sometime around that time frame?
Dr. Bill McGann - Chief Operating Officer
Let me ask Darryl to answer that question Mr. Sullivan.
Unidentified Analyst : Okay.
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
Yeah, the desktop grandfather clause expires January 1, 2014, so that forces all the cargo companies to make sure that they have ETDs for the trace detection system that are approved and are qualified on the latest list. So, that's one of them, and there is another expiration that happens June 13, 2013 that’s handheld, but there are no handheld systems out there on the qualified list, so it’s really a desktop marketplace.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. So have any of the competitors as far as you know tried to get certification based on the standards, and based on avoiding shutdown as of January 1 for them?
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
Now, so let me reiterate a couple of points. We are the only ETD provider at this point that has passed the 2012 detection standard.
Unidentified Analyst:
Right, yeah.
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
Right, if the others are trying to do that, I can say, they probably will try to do that, but we’re the first and the only at this point in time.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yeah. Okay. And, that was my question there. So, we are the only at this time, okay.
Glenn D. Bolduc - President and Chief Executive Officer
To the best of our knowledge Mr. Sullivan, we are the only one at this time. We’ve not seen anything that suggests anybody else has satisfied the 2012 standards. Yeah.
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. That’s critical. Now, Darryl again, this is addressed more to Darryl because he’s out there trying to sell. Have you seen any division of competitive activity, because they don’t have certification, I mean, they have certification, but that’s going to run out soon, has that impacted the competition and the buyers?
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
It’s greatly impacted the competition. We’ve actually – it’s exciting to watch, if you will, because we’ve actually caused the stir in the industry, because now the customers have a choice, they can go for the approved technology with the latest standard, or they can go with the older technology, with the oldest standard.
Unidentified Analyst:
Yeah.
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
And, so it’s great in there, greatly concerned, because they see that the customer lighting up, if you will, when they see our products, especially when we do the demos and the trials. They’ll see our product and when you compare the two, it’s basically kind of no comparison to them. So they have, yes, they have definitely gotten concerned about us.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thanks. The last one, related question is how are margins holding up since we now are the only ones that have met the new standards has that made a difference in our profitability per unit?
Dr. Darryl Jones - Vice President, Global Sales and Marketing:
It’s interesting, because our value prop has – is the thing that selling. It’s not a margin game at this point in time. It’s not a price. Now, let just drive down the price. It’s really, they like the kind of product that we’ve put together. I mean, we have a large touch screen interface, we have automatic internal calibration, rapid clear down, that’s the kind of stuff that’s making them want to buy our product.
------------------------------------------
At some point after this cc and before the following two cc's, the tsa changed grandfather status by listing only two of Smith's-Morpho etds to expire on jan.1,2014. The market effectively closed to IMSC's etd as buyers said, if tsa says we can continue to use these products, we are not buying IMSC's newly approved etd unit no matter what.
Possible scenarios:
a. s-m went to tsa and presented a convincing case for keeping their two respective etds on the list
b. tsa did not believe IMSC could meet market demand of thousands and thousands of etds by the deadline so they believed s-m and relented.
c. ceo bolduc had to be the nice guy and not carp out loud while the tsa bus rolled over his toes re: keeping two s-m etds on the cargo list.
d. ( the ihub dominent theory) ceo and cmo bold faced lied about everything they said they knew at that time.
My opinion:
1. only a radically insane set of two individuals who sell to the us gov. would lie to investors on a recorded, sec filed conference call and I do not believe them to be insane nor liars
2. s-m used their collective clout as etd-eds vendors to the tsa and presented a look ahead vision that cast severe doubt upon IMSC's financial position, it's production capability and the ensuing market turmoil that would be created for no good reason. Tsa agreed, they kept the two newest etd units on the list into 2014.
I think a open discussion of what has-is-could transpire is fantastic and truthfully, that is why I am here. So far, this board sounds like an angry lynch mob and I don't believe it serves anyones investment interest. For instance, if you believe in the ceo, you cannot divorce him from his cmo without finding him guilty also. I believe both of them and that is why I still hold shares.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
pmaher- as best I can- IMSC's competitors are well funded and very well entrenched. They have built out their sales and marketing outreach around the world while having the funding to do that. Dr. Jones was part of that. That was not easy even with large budgets to fund all activities.
Switch to IMSC, Dr. Jones somehow builds out a global sales outreach on a real small, some would say shoestring budget, comparatively speaking. And he wears many hats while doing that.
Further, Dr. McGann and Dr. Jones form up a great team. One takes the pulse of the customer and the other turns that into product features. And they have done that very well in my opinion, against great odds and great multi-national competitors with plenty of cash while IMSC has had to borrow money constantly. You can sense what the competition says about IMSC's debt and how that affects sales outcomes and tsa grandfather certification lists.
I view it as moving a mountain with a pik and a shovel. An overly dramatic statement? Maybe.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
HC- I am a shareholder. I have no connection to DMRJ and I do not work for the company in any way. I own shares. Plenty of shares. Now, to throw allegations around that I was sent here to "buffer the PH" is totally NOT true.
You have your position about Dr. Jones, I have mine. Obviously you don't care to try to understand my position so lets just say you are on one side of the shareholder family and I am on the other.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- While at Morpho, he really out marketed and out sold IMSC in every way. One aspect of being a cmo-dos at a competitor, when he comes into the house, he has plenty of experience ( stories) to share. Knowing exactly how the competition thinks, what they have in their workshop, who their customers were, what makes those customers buy, when they are likely to be next, what they thought about IMSC's product- these are some of the most valuable insights a company can get. Put another way, a company might offer millions of dollars for those "insights" ( note, buying insights makes them different than just sitting in a meeting and hearing them).
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Buffalo, I get accused of that often! But I don't mind at all. Truthfully, I am a pretty hard core realist first and foremost, then I really like to walk the course, so to speak and finally, then comes the positive outlook if all the other evidence points UP. How about your view on this? I read your post that seemed to say you were an active buyer/long.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
fantom-- "...grasping to keep the troops in line". If my math is correct, that 600K sale basket was some 10% of the entire prior year's sales. I don't see that as insignificant but it does not solve our debt problem, if that was your point. Every sale expands awareness and brings a new user into the fold. But a multi-directed 600K sale brings many new users and even more importantly says: IMSC is selling product, Smiths and Morpho are NOT.
Come on, think about that- the shootout is over, the smoke cleared. IMSC;600K, Smiths:0, Morpho;0---lets fire the IMSC cmo-dos...?
Maybe I have not been drinking out of the well that everyone here seems to have been drinking from, but I was happy to read the pr. Really happy. Head to head competitions are more telling than any other loose piece of evidence floating around the etd market.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
B9- I am happy to share my opinions with all fellow shareholders. Always remember, my money rides along with my opinions. If my opinion changes, my investment in IMSC would quickly come to an end.
In terms of the Morpho/IMSC Director of Marketing swap ( call them cmo for chief marketing officer and dos for director of sales) . My answer is, it would make no difference to sales as of today as they both are well connected, both know buyer wants/needs and processes and both possess an elite contact list and both can make a call and have it taken on the other end. My view, today, right now, we have a director of marketing and sales that is as good as our French competitor.
And neither one can force a sale on a process that in reality is the sale. Nobody tells tsa what to buy but congress can sure mis-trigger when they buy.
Dr. Jones product insights/buyer habits and opinions have all helped shape IMSC products and more importantly IMSC sales presentations. So think about that. The IMSC cmo/dos and the Morpho cmo/dos flipped positions and similar presentations ( my guess) were made by both individuals yet neither has yielded etd sales from tsa. That is my confirmation that the sales-process is still in progress. Giving either of these fine cmo/dos' a failing grade would be premature, again, in my opinion.
While some IMSC shareholders dislike Dr. Jones now as cmo/dos for IMSC, I disliked him greatly when he handled the etd line of products at Morpho. I mean really disliked him in a professional sense. That's my 2 cent opinion as I see it.
Everything I have heard since posting here has not in any way deminished my opinion of my investment in IMSC.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey-ok I hear you and I get what you are saying. I have heard those exact same things that you bring up but my take away is much different. If I am beating a dead horse with this, I will not labor you with a reply, especially to your point about cargo. But if you want to hear a reasoned response from a fellow shareholder, I am more than happy to continue the discussion.
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
Zey-let me pose this hypothetical question to you and please try to humor me.
IMSC director of marketing and sales is Dr. Jones.
MORPHO director of marketing and sales is say Bob Smith ( I don't know his/her name)
Would you trade Jones for Smith? What do you believe would be the net change to each company in the trade?
Or would you look for a very sharp director of marketing and sales from a defense company and replace Dr. Jones with that person. And what would be the net effect to IMSC? If this discussion gives you a headache, sorry about that. To me, its important.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Well Zey I see things differently than you do. But I certainly understand your angst because I have some of that too. And it is a sickly feeling.
My position, and this is my thinking only, the big event has yet to reconcile one way or the other. Now, if I understand your thinking, you are saying, "sales are not happening right now and that means mgt. has lied." Management is not perfect. That is no excuse but it is true.
My larger point re: Dr. Jones. He's a pretty sharp guy as he worked at Morpho with Dr. McGann. To me, that in and of itself makes him more market aware, connected and familiar with customer product desires ( features and benefits), budgets and their cycles, cell phone numbers etc...all of the things that would NOT be readily available to IMSC if a really super sharp, different marketing director was running that department. I hope you see my point on this, which is this, we have the benefit of the best connected and smartest etd marketing director in the business who has the resume to back it up.
I will guess your response might be: well then, sell something. And that is fair to say. But I believe the jury is still out on this.
Yes, its drudgery to review conf. call transcripts but from what I can sense from posts here, many think that the second you receive qpl status, you receive an order. Imagine for a second what Smith's and Morpho shareholders think...they have qpl status and where are their orders? Well, I strongly doubt their current qpl listed products receive more orders but that is my guess and its worth absolutely nothing. But my point is; IMSC etd sales to tsa are highly likely, Smith and Morpho sales of current qpl etd products are highly un-likely.
I sense that my long position reasoning is being dismissed and undesired, which is not a good feeling. And if you can show me that I have something totally wrong or half wrong or partially wrong, I am all ears.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
mae- totally agree with you that micro-caps off major exchanges are very very risky. I would love to see open market buys by management. That would extend a huge amount of comfort.
But at the end of the day, you have to look at what has changed and make your own decision. But totally agree, this is a powerball stock, it could jump up through the roof or drop thru the floor busted. Reality is a good thing to be aware of and sometimes I tend to over-believe the best case scenario and discount the worst case scenario, which is a mistake on my part. Anything can and will change when dealing with governments who are buyers. I think the defense industry is a perfect example of how illogical things can be. Think about the F-35 purchase mania, then freeze, then tech problems, then international interest, then revised budgets ( sequestration), then the military asking for more, then Congress responding. Surely, a ride in an F-35 will turn your stomach upside down. ( humor)
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC Longs!
I can see how frustrating this process has been to one and all, myself included. My take on your valid points are this: we hear terms used within safe harbor discussions during conference calls. Afterwards, events change but the company may wait until the next conference call to address or explain those events and their corresponding impact.
We listen, we believe, then we are left floundering for plausible explanations when something does not occur on our timeline. But I don't believe we can hold them accountable for anything that changed due to a client's behavior as long as what they said was true at the time they said it.
I totally agree that if lied to, I would not be in the stock. But I do continue to own this stock as I can see the tsa being very fluid in terms of their events and market conditions along with the behemoth entity that tsa reports to.
At the end of the day, you have to make a call against what has changed but sometimes it seems very hard to determine that.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC Longs!
Vin- certainly understandable on the part of any shareholder, long or short term. But the key question: what has changed?
To my mind, only the date of idiq has changed and I will hold this until events or the company tells me otherwise. Not sure if you play poker but one thing you have to do is pay attention to the habits of your fellow players and the odds. Would it not be very very dim for the tsa to do what it has done to date and then say- sorry, not this calendar year? Odds of that , very very slim. But the odds of "our fellow players" doing something to upend what is likely; very strong, from my perspective. Again, this is all conjecture but corporate actions tend to follow a trend line meaning, if they did a-b-c once, they will likely do a-b-c- again. Again, just conjecture and if I am looking at this completely wrong, I would appreciate knowing that.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
I think you make a fair point but one that can only be settled by looking at what specifically, sale by sale, has happened since those statements were made.
For instance, did anything drop OUT of backlog? Or did an order in backlog delay? If so, why? Is it lost business?
But at the end of it all, I still take them at their word. If they say "Pipeline is busting at the seams", I would have to ask, what exactly do you mean, if I want to hold them to some level of material comment. Same with backlog. They have since defined backlog but I have to read a transcript to be certain of exactly what they have said.
This whole thing becomes very clouded when the ceo knows that every competitor is listening to everything the ceo says in a conf. call and those people can and will attempt to undo any deal that has not been paid for. Not sure if you remember the deal for some 20 units in S.America but it was a deal, then it was stopped ( competitive reasons?) and then it finally closed and was published. From our outside perspective we could say: you told us about this so long ago within the context of backlog or even pipeline, what the heck happened for it to take so long?
A similar situation occured in IMSC's sale to gov. of India. In my opinion, the buyer used the protest to extract a modified deal that was in their interest. But to a shareholder I imagine that deal was the height of confusion-frustration. And I do sense the frustration level rising. I feel it too. But I always try to keep emotions in check when I own something that needs frequent re-evaluation and this certainly does require that. Today I look at it as "wait and see how much, how soon and for how long." Tsa's recent award of some $2million in development grant money, along with two cradas to IMSC has kept me convinced that tsa is genuinely interested in what IMSC has to offer. And yes, its time for them to put their money where their interest is.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
I heard THAT. The ceo made that statement within the published context of what tsa published regarding a purchase in mid-sept. and a published eventline for an idiq to follow shortly thereafter. This statement was made also with his own knowledge of how he views tsa's testing of his product. Its like Roger Penske takes your new car for a test drive and then says "that was the best car I ever drove. When we buy next month, that is the car we will want."
Should he have said nothing? Remember, he is caught between nda-s, competitive bones that he doesn't want to throw and no obligation under safe harbor protections to say anything more. But he has. In succeeding conf. calls he has made good by explaining that the event line was not following published statements.
I think shareholders are concerned and rightly so. However the info is out there and you or anyone can take a different tact on the situation if you like. For my investment, I believe that events have yet to play out and the gov. does not work to our schedule, IMSC works to theirs.
I am not trying to create alibis for events beyond IMSC's control, just reasoned explanations. You can take to heart this, the same jumbled process that IMSC went through for its b-220 has to be achieved by any qualified competitor. I take that as a strong positive for near term events that I believe will be in IMSC's favor.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
b9, first off, I am a shareholder just like you are. I have no affiliation to the company in any way other than owning shares. Second, there is a huge difference in status between saying, "approved by the tsa" and "used by the tsa". Factually, IMSC cannot say "used by the tsa" until it actually is.
I do think expectations have outrun current events but IMSC is not to blame for that. Events that occur outside their control means they cannot be held to account for those events but I do agree that explaining those things in a clear cut way should be done if they are able to ( nda-ok) and if it doesn't compromise their competitive position.
I do believe that there is large misunderstanding in the use of the terms: "backlog" and "pipeline". My take: backlog is an order to be filled, pipeline is assessment of interest. I have to go back and re-read some conference call transcripts but my take away from every conference call I have heard was: pipeline growing but order book not filled meaning they had NO backlog. However, the ceo speaking of the largest production run in the company's history is indicative of something greater than "pipeline" but less than "backlog".
In terms of "go to market" events ( messaging, initiating the sales process etc.) its very difficult to go to every state/muni police or public security department in the usa and say "buy our etd" when they will say: does the tsa use your etd and how do they use your product. To which IMSC will say: not yet but they will use it for passenger inspection.
I think Dr. Jones has communicated to all pipeline contacts that IMSC's b-220 is on the tsa qpl list. I agree that there are discretionary funds out there ( in the USA) but I think expending time chasing those small opportunities will come once tsa is a user of IMSC's product. These are my observations and I believe in them as I am content at the progress made by IMSC.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Fantom- you miss a key point, you pre-suppose that all qpl listed etds are equal. They are NOT equal. Further to this point, Smiths and Morpho etds on the qpl list are undesireable going forward. Additionally, dhs itself points to an end of fed. budget year 14 purchase and a 2015 idiq. In my opinon, the only event that would trip that up would be if they discovered a new threat that was not discoverable by IMSC's b-220. I think there can be no arguement that IMSC owns the frontier in the most cutting edge capabilities in their category. Tsa would not have signed any cradas with IMSC if they didn't believe in the extensibility of IMSC's platform. These are significant signs of tsa's intent, in my opinion.
Best of Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
Pat, you miss the most compelling reason why your point is not correct- and this applies to fantom's point also- the tsa will accept your product for testing-cert. process if you submit a quality data package for your product that exceeds and or meets, the current leading product. Then, if you pass testing the tsa places you onto the qpl and then they purchase from qpl listing. Pat, since they have 3 etds on their qpl, they could purchase any of them but they won't buy Smiths and Morpho's because they do not do what IMSC's b-220 can do. I hope you can see the implied peril that exists if you sit on your hands ( make no etd purchase) while you have tested product that can prevent a horrific event. Further, Smith's new 600 is not assured of gaining qpl listing and its certification testing has not begun. That's a one to two year wait. I strongly doubt there is a single brain inside tsa that says, we're fine, lets wait and see how Smith's 600 works and then decide if we want more of that machine or more of IMSC's better-lower cost of ownership machine. That is PERIL CITY for the bonehead that stands behind that idea in the face of a growing-morphing terror threat.
Additionally, the capabilities division of dhs specifically stated their intent to purchase some 500+ units in around the middle of september'14. I have to take them at their word. Their second word stated that they would sign an idiq for 2015 after october 1st.
The had many contracts that had to get sewn up by 9/30, as those release they begin to work on contracts that carry over into budget year '15. I believe IMSC is in that batch.
In other news, dhs is stepping up security through the federal facility list. Figures point to between 1 and 2 million people visit those federal facilities every day. If we can see the soft targets out there, so can "they". Just a note worth listening to.
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC Longs!
Last thought, because some investors seemed to have swallowed your statement:
Current qpl for passenger:
- IMSC
- Old Smiths unit
-Old Morpho unit
Fact: tsa does NOT want old smiths nor old morpho units.
Smiths has "shown" a new etd unit. I do not think they have submitted a quality data package as of yet. This has to occur before the tsa even considers the unit for the certification process. Remember THAT process, the one that IMSC just went through, the one that has created all the investor complaints because of tsa delays ( gov. shut down, this took longer, that took longer, tsa voided tsa's own published schedule of events with about 5 amended announcements in just this year). If Smiths makes it through certification to the qpl by March 2016, I will be amazed. I won't be. They won't do it that fast.
Now one should swallow any bit of your thesis because it holds zero water.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!
Well Pat, your post is based on competitive price bidding. ( we need two sources) What would you do, being the decision maker at tsa, and you ask for quotes, you receive one for the latest etd to gain qpl status, it clearly is at a lower price per unit than the French company and the English company, it works faster, costs less to operate and it finds the dangerous material to a higher degree of resolution than any competitor has AND you have a growing threat in passenger checkpoint and cargo.
Further to your point, you assume, incorrectly, that tsa knows the new Smiths unit will work as well, be as competitively priced AND pass certification, within 1 to 2 years...plus add in a few phone calls from various congressmen about the growing threat from ISIS...all the while you (tsa) are sitting on millions and millions of dollars already allocated for new and improved etd units...
Happy to say, your thesis does not have a chance in hell of being true or coming to pass. If you model tsa's decisions, back in 07-09ish, they removed all the old Smith's and Morpho machines and replaced them with, at that time, higher resolution models from Smith's and Morpho. Tsa does not dither when it is fully funded. To do so would be dangerous and in my opinion, highly irresponsible in the face of a growing threat.
One last point; tsa could have purchased etd units any time they wanted in 2014. But they have waited for the b-220 to gain qpl listing. Hint. HINT! HINTTTT!
Best of Luck to All IMSC LONGS!
The only plausible response to your comment: who else is making sales into the etd space today? who else is likely to make the majority of sales into the etd space within the next two years?
Defining what the concept of pipeline means to you and what it means to Dr. Jones may be two very different things. Only he can clarify what he means and you are free to ask.
To me, he has spoken clearly and everything he has pointed to is true or about to be confirmed. With that said, I certainly understand the frustrations investors feel. I feel them too. But do I distrust someone who makes a statement that is delayed because of a buyer's actions- no. That is futile and foolish in my opinion.
At the end of it all, IMSC investors do not hire nor fire. My guess, most investors are thankful that IMSC has the industry credentials if has at every position. From my point of view- tsa will not buy current etd units from Smiths or Morpho, therefore to refresh their fleet of etds they will select the best unit available at the most attractive total cost of ownership, which I will guess that Dr. Jones has presented in detail. This company can only parrot what they have been told by a buyer, they cannot strong arm that buyer nor any buyer. They could say right now: buy one, get one free for the next 7days- this would NOT change a thing.
Best of Luck to all IMSC LONGS!
You are walking right past a key function of a sharp marketing director and that would be knowing everything about the market the current product plays in and what the current and evolving market wants, why you win or lost a sale, who is on the hot sheet, how to undo competitive threats, how to spot opportunities and key product features that must be in future products if you want to make sales and how to write better sales presentations/quotes.
I would say the r-d dept. and all that it achieves is in direct correlation to the marketing dept. Sometimes, some things are painfully obvious. For instance, gas prices go up, then so do cars with better mpgs. But if you look deeper, the real gains are how a marketing swot grid spots new trends and new potentials ( pollution requirements drive mpg-friendly sales as much as the price of oil) to develop that winning mpg.
I would say that this is self evident through all the features that IMSC now offers its clients. Boiling it down, if a sale can be made to a etd user, IMSC will make it. They lead in every head to head feature and certification(s) within this space. Thank your marketing department as much as your r-d dept. To not recognize this is foolish, in my opinion because it is the way that it is.
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
b9m- not to demean your point, which is a very good one, this company is very aware of the games being played and they have been onto that for many years. ( i.e. the india order was a prime example). Dr. McGann pointed to administrative events being played by competitors within the cargo space. I think they have been fully informed as to the scuttlebutt within their markets. I think its safe to say, that tsa knows what is circulating through the market. If you think about it, Dr. Jones knows these games only too well particularly in Russia and South America. Enough said there.
Best of Luck To ALL IMSC LONGS!
I was answering zeynoc's post. The only questions I have at this time are: how much, how soon, how long.
Nothing sells itself. You could not even give free money away without a sales effort. This is very true.
When you sell within the security products space, you encounter cloak and dagger methods employed by certain sales teams, it becomes a very difficult industry to smoothly sell in.
IMSC products occupy a unique position with world-wide esteem, yet selling them is not as easy as it seems. Why- the dominent forces that owned this space prior to IMSC's emergence resent their taking sales away from them.
You might remember the beginning of japanese car sales in the usa. Detroit scoffed at "small cheap cars from our ww2 enemy". But japan kept improving, kept innovating and detroit kept scoffing at them while not really improving upon anything. If you owned a Chevy Vega, you are were driving detroits first wave of answers to japan. I used to say, the most American thing you can do is buy the best vehicle and if that is japanese- great, because that purchase will improve detroit's product faster than anything else will.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC longs!
DD- you are correct, all companies submitted responses in July to tsa for next etd product replacement cycle. A proposed presentation outline for replacement was published by a deptment of dhs that showed mid-sept. to start said replacement.
An IDIQ covers a product rate(s) over a period time. It just means "we cannot specify a # right now nor a time frame but we want secured rates based on volume levels."
Towards the end of sept., all other etd specific idiqs expired. I don't expect tsa to purchase any Smiths or Morpho gear until either one has passed recertification. This is very key because tsa tested IMSC's B-220 for passenger use for one reason, its a better mousetrap. How foolish would they seem to replace Smiths-Morpho gear with more Smiths-Morpho gear. I am I the only one that sees this?
Further hints; tsa has entered co-op r-d agreements with IMSC. This is very positive as it foretells new products. In my opinion, it is important for IMSC to offer more than 2 etd products that can address the varying methods of use.
To you dr. jones haters- get over it. The man has moved mts. for IMSC. I would not underestimate his achievements for this company and he has earned industry wide respect.
I do understand realistic consternation about events spoken about but are still pending. Many do not realize that when IMSC was conditionally approved onto the cargo certification list for their b-220 they had to under go a trial period. Selling product through out that period of time was far more difficult than it appeared and it appeared very difficult. Tsa had to act because of "market forces". They approved IMSC's b-220 prior to the end of its trial period due to the pettiness going on "in the market". This is expressed via salesman "a" telling customer "z" that IMSC's b-220 is going thru a trial period, you don't want to buy it now because it may not pass said trial period.
To my thinking, everything spoken about has come to pass or will come to pass. Its a very dangerous path to walk when you are a small, cash stressed company entering a market that is populated by very large multi-nationals who resent you being in their space.
Many express resentment toward dmrj but consider, would you have loaned them a dime when it looked like there was zero possibility of them surviving...sure, the capital structure is very clumsy and repels interest but that is where the ball came to rest so that is how it must be played until a solution arises. There will be a solution, in my opinion.
Every shareholder is entitled to their opinion and some opinions are better than others. Those opinions are formed thru market events, facts and conditions that tell the full story. If you dis-trust the company and or its officers, then you are best served by not putting capital into it. Every shareholder votes by holding-buying or selling their shares.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC Longs!
zey--I am with you on the frustration front regarding the movement in the pps. Check the daily finra report and you will see short sellers ranging in vol. % from 33 to 85% of all trades. Those people don't seem to think any sales will occur and I believe they are wrong.
I have listened to their conf. calls, my take away is only positive. Its fantastic to hear about growing interest in IMSC's products ( that's the pipeline we hear about). At this point in time, if you are a gov. purchasing agent or a shipping manager, the only product you could consider would be IMSC's B-220. The lack of sales mean either lack of budget or failure on the tsa's part to change approved listed products. But that changes in 2 years.
You are dead wrong about Dr. Jones, he is a super star in the etd niche. I would say there isn't a potential buyer around the world that doesn't know and respect him. He is a valuable part of the IMSC team. I do not doubt that tsa will enter into an idiq with IMSC...how soon, how much, how long? Big questions that determine quite a bit for this small company.
I became acquainted with IMSC when I read a statement by their ceo talking about capturing one third of the available market over 3 years. He pointed to about a 300 million dollar market and was hoping to take 100 million, over those three years. But now, I think IMSC will capture over 90% of whatever the market is over 3 years. And that is the perplexing issue in security products; two years could go by with zero sales by anybody, then one incident and the entire world is on the line begging for your product. Not sure if you agree, but its very hard to "market-size" this niche as secrecy abounds, plans change, budgets are cut, events occur, budgets are restored...the visibility changes month to month. But if I questioned the veracity of the director of marketing to the extent you seem to express, it would be near impossible for me to remain in that equity.
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
fant--I did NOT "just stumble on this site". But I am an IMSC shareholder and I find story stocks to be loaded with the most peril and the most reward, therefore, a bit more exciting to own but quite a bit more work to understand and follow. This board does offer varying perspectives and it makes for a lively read, it is prime message board "real estate".
I post to ihub from a different IP address for much different stocks, but I believe everybody needs one stock that is like a lottery ticket and this one is THAT one for me. I doubt I could take the twists and turns of more than one "penny stock" but I have been known to play casino blackjack for extended periods of time.
If you own this stock let me extend to you: Best of Luck to a fellow IMSC LONG!
ks- a couple of real good reasons--a target of opportunity ( easy target) but you may be missing this angle re: cargo...some cargo is handed off from a cargo departure facility and placed onto a passenger plane. Many reasons for this but the networks ability to get a package where it has to go in ? amt. of time is a key facet...and this facet frightens everybody.
Many expected the tsa to remove the prior four etd approved units on the cargo list much sooner and in sync. with IMSC's unit that was approved on the cargo list. As of right now, the last two units made by Smith's and Morpho must be retooled to remain on the cargo list. They have until 2016 to do so... meanwhile, IMSC is approved ( forgot the date its approval expires but its beyond 2016).
Cargo is a huge market but driven by key gov. approvals for usable products. No approval- no sale. It is also a market that is most stressed over inspections. For example- a pallet of shrink wrapped packages ( wrapped for easy shipping) must be broken down and run past the x-ray machine. This machine does NOT find explosive material, it looks for densities and shapes. When presented with a suspicious item, that item gets a swabbing with an etd unit. I am not certain about the percentage of items that must be swabbed with an etd unit regardless of x-ray disposition but its high ( was 100% but that is unworkable with a swab)
Best of Luck to All IMSC Longs!
Reno- JV is a smart man and one covering his you know what. Read Smith's annual deck. Security div. is dropping and pulling their entire company down. And if you want to speak about debt, look at the size of Smiths unfunded obligations.
I would also say Smith's has coasted on its current product mix believing that no one could compete with them. Fools. There is one constant, and that is change. Consider how foolish he is to speak about new threats but not to have an answer for those threats. THAT is strictly a marketing function-- to see ahead and to report back on market-wide developments. The SWOT grid is your dashboard. But Smith's has dug their pit and its ready for their occupation.
That explanation by JV is another way of saying: fire me, unless he did give them a future look and they dismissed it.
But you wisely have pieced other parts of the puzzle together and for that, I thank you!
Best of Luck to All IMSC Longs!
zey--I disagree. Take a look at who is making etd sales and their sizes.
Uncle Sam has replaced some worn out checkpoint units but there keen buying interest is linked solely to IMSC at this point.
In the cargo space the bulk of orders have gone to IMSC as that market has not faced required refresh but it is about to. Cargo is ripe for non-contact and who is the leader in non-contact etd--IMSC. Ask the Chinese.
In the rest of the gov, buying has been sparodic and thin but again, much has gone to IMSC.
Around the world it seems that some competitors are selling units but I sense IMSC getting an equal share. The world looks to the usa for etd products that are tested against the latest threats and IMSC is the leader at this time and for the near term future.
Best of Luck to ALL IMSC Longs!
reno--I've listened to a few of their conference calls and I have no feeling that there has been any misleading by anyone at IMSC. They make forward looking statements on what they have been told and according the best time table provided to them by gov. Based on what is known at the time, management must make forward looking statements. Remember, they are under no obligation to update those statements.
For instance, what does a gov. shut down do to items/events/action that are in process? Plenty. I believe there is a positive from all of the delay in processing purchases in that IF there was any intent by tsa to purchase anything other than IMSC's product(s), they would have done so by now. That leaves the entire opportunity for IMSC. It will be a big one...when is hard to predict ( obviously) but I cannot see the delay passing mid-november.
Also, pipelines are simply a thin level of interest...nothing more. The better questions to ask are how many deals are in progress, how many are you about to bid on, what are their sizes and then comes the pipeline.
Best of Luck to All IMSC Longs!
hc- the process of selling etd products is unique to the typical sales model. I believe that maybe 30 to 50% of a sale is the salesman, the balance is made up of price-benefit-buyer need.
In the etd domain, that is further segemented and differentiated. But when the gov. is an active buyer,there is no government purchasing agent that I know of that says: I like bob so I will buy bob's product. With that said, when bob and jon are both equal in terms of likeability and persistance within an available budget process, then price-product specs ( benefits) become drivers. But there is one final obstruction, buyer need. Within this space ( sales of etd gear to gov or gov regulated entities) buyer need is based on rfps to select sellers who are scientifically qualified but that is exactly where an alpha marketing director adds to the process. That director collects intell on his/her own, they talk to as many people in the trade that will accept their call and speak off the record. It is within this space that trust-familarity and resume drive interactions. You have to consider the man's resume, his demeanor and most of all-- will the prospect "take his phone call". I believe that IMSC is lucky to have this ability connected into their process.
Within the cargo domain, current owners are not required to buy a new etd unit for cargo inspection if their current etd is judged appropriate by the regulating authority, which it is. But that is on the verge of rapid evolution based on new buyer needs. Consider, you have a team in the back, behind the x-ray machine conveyor taking a swab from an etd unit and passing it over a taped up package. Futile or not futile- hazard a guess. I would say, might be- might not be. But until somebody who regulates my process tells me otherwise, I am willing to risk your life on the plane you are riding in because the swab I am using has a safety seal from the tsa which protects me from legal actions should an eventuality occur under my watch. Note the word "eventuality". And that is the straddle where things sit at this moment. That will change and Dr. Jones will be a force in pushing the sales represented by that change toward IMSC's approved products. I can see that happening with full confidence as he is maybe one of two or three qualified marketing directors working in the business today who knows the ins and outs of this byzantine yet techno driven and gov. regulated process.
If you are expressing frustration with sales and progress of the share price, I certainly am just as frustrated. But I am gobsmacked by what this small company has cobbled together and achieved to date while I imagine that just around the bend, great sales await it.
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
zeynoc-Dr. Jones is also the marketing director so I think its safe to say, he knows what the size of the opportunity is in front of this company. When marketing people speak of "pipelines" they are indicating "interest", not active tenders or rfps or rfqs. Security product sales are hard to predict and view points on the size of market are simply snaps taken at any given time. Govs. only buy when the wolf is two steps from the door. I remember smoking a cig. at the airport gate where a friend was arriving. I just walked into the airport, strolled to the gate, lit up and waited...that was then, before the wolf was born.
From my point of view, the tsa assumes the wolf is around back or on the roof or clawing through the cellar door. They indicate that through who they test and place onto their qpl. In terms of etd, they buy from everyone on that qpl. There is no doubt about that. Further to that point, the qpl spot is now segregated between etd units that address current substances and or achieve certain levels of detection and older etd units that do not. IMSC does, smith's and morpho units do not.
Larger picture, the entire concept of random and or back up swabbing for etd is kaput in both arenas of use. The tsa uses a swab when it has a suspicion of something or it selects a random passenger. In the cargo domain, swabbing is even more futile but used at an increasing frrequency, in my opinion. I believe its safe to say that tsa knows this and is moving as fast a federal budgeting will allow to change that. There is NO salesman alive who is going to change that, but there are a few terrorists who might hasten that, unfortunately. Dr. Jones is not just director of sales, he's the marketing mastermind who knows everyone who is an active customer or might become one. But he is not god who can command sales where there is no budget to buy said product. From a long position, to my thinking the key questions are, how much/how soon? I believe tsa will issue an idiq for a large amount over a few years and smiths might not receive any purchase requests for their current model on the qpl. But of course, this is a hopeful guess and at this point in time, not much more can be said.
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
zey- I can sense your frustration with the share price movement and feel much the same way. But I must disagree regarding Dr. Jones. I learned the lesson of NOT LOOKING A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH along time ago, as long as that gift horse is not made in "Greece" ( figuratively speaking).
If I may give you some insight-- you could NOT give an IMSC etd unit to our tsa until our tsa has given that etd unit a complete testing and re-testing. But if you pass the certification test, which we have, you will sell many of those units to our tsa. See, the tsa doesn't need yesterday's tech. ( products) for etd to thwart/detect today's threats. Product purchase cycles ( sales) time to two key drivers: what the bad guys have developed ( this includes how they deliver what they have developed) and what fed. funds are available to purchase tech.
zey, I hope you are as excited as I am about IMSC's future because I believe it's going to be like the sun rising in the east and rising across the planet for a few years to come.
Regarding Dr.Jones and this is just speculation, he may be one of the top 2 or 3 sales directors on the planet for etd. We are blessed to have him working for us and like all Alpha salesmen, they are well rewarded for making sales and that is why they make the coffee early in the morning! (that's decrepit sales guy humor).
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
hc, however they are paid, they are worth what they make. Dr.Jones has a deep "rolodex". I would guess he knows/has spoken to every major buyer of etd products on the planet, he knows the specific weakness' of morpho etd and perhaps eds and he can deliver a strong-persuasive list of superior product attributes that IMSC's non contact product delivers. BUT, he cannot get into the game until key gov. approvals have attained. Finally, those approvals are flowing in for IMSC.
IMSC gained european status for its non-contact product a few weeks ago and already sales of the unit have flowed into IMSC. Pretty impressive in my book. You also have to consider the process of approval-certification of an etd product IS part/parcel of the holistic sales process for security products. I think we are lucky to have him on our side. I believe he will bring home the vital sales needed to save this company. For that, I applaud him!
Best of Luck to all IMSC Longs!
hoop,I think you about summed it up! IMSC selling etd units -- everybody else NOT selling any etd units.
My guess, it will stay that way for a long time. Smith's has a new etd unit that doesn't even have safety seal approval. I wonder why that unit isn't selling--they have a 1-2 year selling process to go through that starts with tsa looking at their data pack and then accepting it for testing.
My second guess, IMSC is selling like flap jacks at Denny's. IMSC has gained the vital-key-entry approvals and certifications...so going through a certification process actually is the selling process. We just have to wait for the "t" to be crossed and the "i" to be dotted.
Rounding up the loose "cats"...I surmise that IMSC will capture all of tsa's checkpoint etd business UNTIL a new - certified competitor completes the selling-testing process. Further to that point, the idiq will be at least a two year duration and at least a potential 80m to possibly 100+m$ value.
The best guesses I have heard regarding sizing of tsa's etd fleet is between 2700 and 2900 units...so by the time Smith's unit completes the entry part of the selling process, IMSC will have replaced every single Morpho unit that was on the line and most if not all of the Smith's units. Don't get me wrong, those units are doing the job for the substances the us gov. asked them to detect back in 2008-2010. But IMSC's contact product is superior and current against known threats. In the ever-changing world of prventing terror, those key factors drive any and all sales.
Best of luck to all long position holders of IMSC!