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>>> Why Fabrinet Stock Blasted Nearly 16% Higher Today
by Eric Volkman
Motley Fool
Aug 20, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-fabrinet-stock-blasted-nearly-210009685.html
Optics equipment supplier Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) was quite the double-digit outperformer on the second trading day of the week. Tuesday saw the company's share price skyrocket by nearly 16%, thanks to an earnings report that well outpaced expectations. Fabrinet stock's performance on the day was particularly impressive considering that the S&P 500 index ended in negative territory, closing the day down by 0.2%.
A good way to ring in the new fiscal year
Fabrinet closed out its fiscal 2024 in style, delivering fourth-quarter results that easily topped the average analyst estimates. For the period ended June 28, it took in more than $753 million in revenue, a figure that was 15% higher year over year. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income leaped even higher, rising by 29% to hit $88 million, or $2.41 per share.
On average, analysts tracking the stock were expecting a notably more modest performance. Collectively, they were modeling less than $733 million on the top line, and only $2.24 per share for adjusted net profit.
In its earnings release, Fabrinet did not fail to mention that the quarter was the fourth frame in a row in which it notched record revenue and earnings-per-share figures.
Fabrinet also said that its board of directors has approved an expansion of the company's existing stock buyback program. The new authorization is for $139.5 million worth of its ordinary shares, which brings the total authorized amount to $434.3 million. Of this figure, $200 million is remaining for repurchases.
Crushing it on guidance, too
Fabrinet also proffered guidance for its current (first) quarter. The company is forecasting that it will earn $760 million to $780 million in revenue, with adjusted net income coming in at $2.33 to $2.40 per share. As with the fourth-quarter results these ranges topped the consensus analyst estimates, which called for nearly $752 million on the top line, and $2.25 for adjusted per-share profitability.
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>>> Why Fabrinet Stock Blasted Nearly 16% Higher Today
by Eric Volkman
Motley Fool
Aug 20, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-fabrinet-stock-blasted-nearly-210009685.html
Optics equipment supplier Fabrinet (NYSE: FN) was quite the double-digit outperformer on the second trading day of the week. Tuesday saw the company's share price skyrocket by nearly 16%, thanks to an earnings report that well outpaced expectations. Fabrinet stock's performance on the day was particularly impressive considering that the S&P 500 index ended in negative territory, closing the day down by 0.2%.
A good way to ring in the new fiscal year
Fabrinet closed out its fiscal 2024 in style, delivering fourth-quarter results that easily topped the average analyst estimates. For the period ended June 28, it took in more than $753 million in revenue, a figure that was 15% higher year over year. Non-GAAP (adjusted) net income leaped even higher, rising by 29% to hit $88 million, or $2.41 per share.
On average, analysts tracking the stock were expecting a notably more modest performance. Collectively, they were modeling less than $733 million on the top line, and only $2.24 per share for adjusted net profit.
In its earnings release, Fabrinet did not fail to mention that the quarter was the fourth frame in a row in which it notched record revenue and earnings-per-share figures.
Fabrinet also said that its board of directors has approved an expansion of the company's existing stock buyback program. The new authorization is for $139.5 million worth of its ordinary shares, which brings the total authorized amount to $434.3 million. Of this figure, $200 million is remaining for repurchases.
Crushing it on guidance, too
Fabrinet also proffered guidance for its current (first) quarter. The company is forecasting that it will earn $760 million to $780 million in revenue, with adjusted net income coming in at $2.33 to $2.40 per share. As with the fourth-quarter results these ranges topped the consensus analyst estimates, which called for nearly $752 million on the top line, and $2.25 for adjusted per-share profitability.
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>>> Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF), a financial services company, provides savings, retirement, and pension products worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Asset Management, Canada, U.S., Asia, and Corporate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLF/profile/
It offers various insurance products, such as term and permanent life; personal health, which includes prescription drugs, dental, and vision care; critical illness; long-term care; and disability, as well as reinsurance.
The company also provides advice for financial planning and retirement planning services; investments products, such as mutual funds, segregated funds, and annuities; and asset and investment management products consisting of pooled funds, institutional portfolios, and pension funds.
In addition, it offers real estate services; manages equity capital in various private and listed funds, as well as mezzanine debt, middle market direct lending, high-yield bonds, and syndicated loans; and operates as an investment grade fixed income investor, real estate investment management advisor, infrastructure investment manager, and alternative credit investment manager.
The company was formerly known as Sun Life Financial Services of Canada Inc. and changed its name to Sun Life Financial Inc. in July 2003. Sun Life Financial Inc. was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
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>>> Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF), a financial services company, provides savings, retirement, and pension products worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Asset Management, Canada, U.S., Asia, and Corporate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLF/profile/
It offers various insurance products, such as term and permanent life; personal health, which includes prescription drugs, dental, and vision care; critical illness; long-term care; and disability, as well as reinsurance.
The company also provides advice for financial planning and retirement planning services; investments products, such as mutual funds, segregated funds, and annuities; and asset and investment management products consisting of pooled funds, institutional portfolios, and pension funds.
In addition, it offers real estate services; manages equity capital in various private and listed funds, as well as mezzanine debt, middle market direct lending, high-yield bonds, and syndicated loans; and operates as an investment grade fixed income investor, real estate investment management advisor, infrastructure investment manager, and alternative credit investment manager.
The company was formerly known as Sun Life Financial Services of Canada Inc. and changed its name to Sun Life Financial Inc. in July 2003. Sun Life Financial Inc. was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
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>>> Palo Alto Networks Gains the Most in Six Months on Rosy Forecast
Bloomberg
by Redd Brown and Katrina Manson
Aug 20, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palo-alto-jumps-strong-profit-205336645.html
(Bloomberg) -- Palo Alto Networks Inc. shares rose the most in nearly a year after the cybersecurity company gave a strong forecast and boosted its share buyback program.
The shares climbed as much as 9.3% in New York on Tuesday to $375.37, the biggest intraday gain since Feb. 26. Palo Alto had risen 16% through the close Monday.
In an earnings report on Monday, Palo Alto reported that earnings for the current fiscal quarter will be $1.47 per share to $1.49 per share. Analysts had expected $1.43.
The results come as a boon for Palo Alto, one of America’s leading cybersecurity companies, which hit a record market capitalization of $121 billion following the results, up from $91 billion at the start of the year. Chief Executive Officer Nikesh Arora had warned back in February that customers were suffering from “spending fatigue” in cybersecurity, as the company missed Wall Street expectations for annual sales, sending the value of the company plummeting by a record 27% at the time.
The company has attempted to refresh its sales strategy, with limited success, Bloomberg Intelligence said before the report.
Palo Alto managed to grow its sales 12% last quarter, faster than expected. The reported full-year sales of just over $8 billion was in line with consensus expectations that were moderated after it cut its outlook earlier this year.
Wall Street remained bullish overall on the stock of the Santa Clara, California-based company ahead of Monday’s earnings, which had 40 buys, 15 holds, and zero sell ratings among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Palo Alto also announced its board approved an additional $500 million to repurchase shares, increasing the total authorization to $1 billion.
Analysts have been watching to see any impact on the cybersecurity market from the mass outages last month triggered by a flawed update from CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. That includes whether CrowdStrike customers were switching to rivals or pushing back on cybersecurity vendors in general.
Arora said in an investor call on Monday the company was “delighted” with its results, adding cybersecurity has risen up the agenda in C-suites following “a recent broad outage involving security tools.”
Palo Alto creates its own updates in a “fundamentally different way” from CrowdStrike, Arora said. Since the outage, customers have been reaching out and asking how Palo Alto deploys its updates compared with its rival, he said.
On Tuesday, Arora told Bloomberg TV that the cybersecurity market remains fragmented and ripe for consolidation. Growth will likely come from taking market share from smaller players rather than from its rival, CrowdStrike, he said.
Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer, said the company would no longer issue guidance on billings forecasts to investors in the future. That follows Arora’s contention in May that billings represent “an artificial metric” after the figure missed analyst estimates and disappointed investors.
Golechha said the company will instead issue guidance for annualized recurring revenue for part of its product offering and remaining performance obligations, known for short as RPO, a measure of how much revenue is already contracted.
Wall Street firms such as Guggenheim Securities have previously warned of pitfalls associated with relying on RPO. In November 2022, Guggenheim argued that RPO lacked crucial information, such as the time frame in which contracted revenues will be spent.
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>>> Palo Alto Networks Gains the Most in Six Months on Rosy Forecast
Bloomberg
by Redd Brown and Katrina Manson
Aug 20, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palo-alto-jumps-strong-profit-205336645.html
(Bloomberg) -- Palo Alto Networks Inc. shares rose the most in nearly a year after the cybersecurity company gave a strong forecast and boosted its share buyback program.
The shares climbed as much as 9.3% in New York on Tuesday to $375.37, the biggest intraday gain since Feb. 26. Palo Alto had risen 16% through the close Monday.
In an earnings report on Monday, Palo Alto reported that earnings for the current fiscal quarter will be $1.47 per share to $1.49 per share. Analysts had expected $1.43.
The results come as a boon for Palo Alto, one of America’s leading cybersecurity companies, which hit a record market capitalization of $121 billion following the results, up from $91 billion at the start of the year. Chief Executive Officer Nikesh Arora had warned back in February that customers were suffering from “spending fatigue” in cybersecurity, as the company missed Wall Street expectations for annual sales, sending the value of the company plummeting by a record 27% at the time.
The company has attempted to refresh its sales strategy, with limited success, Bloomberg Intelligence said before the report.
Palo Alto managed to grow its sales 12% last quarter, faster than expected. The reported full-year sales of just over $8 billion was in line with consensus expectations that were moderated after it cut its outlook earlier this year.
Wall Street remained bullish overall on the stock of the Santa Clara, California-based company ahead of Monday’s earnings, which had 40 buys, 15 holds, and zero sell ratings among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Palo Alto also announced its board approved an additional $500 million to repurchase shares, increasing the total authorization to $1 billion.
Analysts have been watching to see any impact on the cybersecurity market from the mass outages last month triggered by a flawed update from CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. That includes whether CrowdStrike customers were switching to rivals or pushing back on cybersecurity vendors in general.
Arora said in an investor call on Monday the company was “delighted” with its results, adding cybersecurity has risen up the agenda in C-suites following “a recent broad outage involving security tools.”
Palo Alto creates its own updates in a “fundamentally different way” from CrowdStrike, Arora said. Since the outage, customers have been reaching out and asking how Palo Alto deploys its updates compared with its rival, he said.
On Tuesday, Arora told Bloomberg TV that the cybersecurity market remains fragmented and ripe for consolidation. Growth will likely come from taking market share from smaller players rather than from its rival, CrowdStrike, he said.
Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer, said the company would no longer issue guidance on billings forecasts to investors in the future. That follows Arora’s contention in May that billings represent “an artificial metric” after the figure missed analyst estimates and disappointed investors.
Golechha said the company will instead issue guidance for annualized recurring revenue for part of its product offering and remaining performance obligations, known for short as RPO, a measure of how much revenue is already contracted.
Wall Street firms such as Guggenheim Securities have previously warned of pitfalls associated with relying on RPO. In November 2022, Guggenheim argued that RPO lacked crucial information, such as the time frame in which contracted revenues will be spent.
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---
>>> Palo Alto Networks Gains the Most in Six Months on Rosy Forecast
Bloomberg
by Redd Brown and Katrina Manson
Aug 20, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palo-alto-jumps-strong-profit-205336645.html
(Bloomberg) -- Palo Alto Networks Inc. shares rose the most in nearly a year after the cybersecurity company gave a strong forecast and boosted its share buyback program.
The shares climbed as much as 9.3% in New York on Tuesday to $375.37, the biggest intraday gain since Feb. 26. Palo Alto had risen 16% through the close Monday.
In an earnings report on Monday, Palo Alto reported that earnings for the current fiscal quarter will be $1.47 per share to $1.49 per share. Analysts had expected $1.43.
The results come as a boon for Palo Alto, one of America’s leading cybersecurity companies, which hit a record market capitalization of $121 billion following the results, up from $91 billion at the start of the year. Chief Executive Officer Nikesh Arora had warned back in February that customers were suffering from “spending fatigue” in cybersecurity, as the company missed Wall Street expectations for annual sales, sending the value of the company plummeting by a record 27% at the time.
The company has attempted to refresh its sales strategy, with limited success, Bloomberg Intelligence said before the report.
Palo Alto managed to grow its sales 12% last quarter, faster than expected. The reported full-year sales of just over $8 billion was in line with consensus expectations that were moderated after it cut its outlook earlier this year.
Wall Street remained bullish overall on the stock of the Santa Clara, California-based company ahead of Monday’s earnings, which had 40 buys, 15 holds, and zero sell ratings among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
Palo Alto also announced its board approved an additional $500 million to repurchase shares, increasing the total authorization to $1 billion.
Analysts have been watching to see any impact on the cybersecurity market from the mass outages last month triggered by a flawed update from CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. That includes whether CrowdStrike customers were switching to rivals or pushing back on cybersecurity vendors in general.
Arora said in an investor call on Monday the company was “delighted” with its results, adding cybersecurity has risen up the agenda in C-suites following “a recent broad outage involving security tools.”
Palo Alto creates its own updates in a “fundamentally different way” from CrowdStrike, Arora said. Since the outage, customers have been reaching out and asking how Palo Alto deploys its updates compared with its rival, he said.
On Tuesday, Arora told Bloomberg TV that the cybersecurity market remains fragmented and ripe for consolidation. Growth will likely come from taking market share from smaller players rather than from its rival, CrowdStrike, he said.
Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer, said the company would no longer issue guidance on billings forecasts to investors in the future. That follows Arora’s contention in May that billings represent “an artificial metric” after the figure missed analyst estimates and disappointed investors.
Golechha said the company will instead issue guidance for annualized recurring revenue for part of its product offering and remaining performance obligations, known for short as RPO, a measure of how much revenue is already contracted.
Wall Street firms such as Guggenheim Securities have previously warned of pitfalls associated with relying on RPO. In November 2022, Guggenheim argued that RPO lacked crucial information, such as the time frame in which contracted revenues will be spent.
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>>> Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) an Under-the-Radar Nuclear Energy Stock?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-nuclear-energy-stocks-buy-110000268.html
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a top supplier of nuclear technologies, components, and fuel to the U.S. government, including U.S. naval submarines and aircraft carriers. BWX Technologies is actively growing its commercial nuclear power segment and other non-defense units.
BWXT owns one of the largest commercial nuclear equipment manufacturing facilities on the planet. BWXT is expanding that operation to “support ongoing and anticipated customers’ investments in Small Modular Reactors, traditional large-scale nuclear and advanced reactors, in Canada and around the world.”
BWX Technologies has landed deals and partnerships with GE Vernova, the Wyoming Energy Authority, Bill Gates-backed SMR company TerraPower, and beyond. BWXT’s beat-and-raise second quarter was supported, in part, by a growing “appetite for nuclear solutions across the global security, clean energy, and medical markets.”
BWXT is projected to post solid mid-single-digit sales and earnings growth in 2024 and 2025.
BWX Technologies stock has climbed 250% in the last 10 years to outpace the S&P 500’s 190% and its industry’s 110%. BWXT broke out to new highs last summer, with the stock up 38% the last 12 months.
BWXT is trading above its 21-week and 21-day moving averages while sitting 5% below its average Zacks price target.
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>>> Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) an Under-the-Radar Nuclear Energy Stock?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-nuclear-energy-stocks-buy-110000268.html
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a top supplier of nuclear technologies, components, and fuel to the U.S. government, including U.S. naval submarines and aircraft carriers. BWX Technologies is actively growing its commercial nuclear power segment and other non-defense units.
BWXT owns one of the largest commercial nuclear equipment manufacturing facilities on the planet. BWXT is expanding that operation to “support ongoing and anticipated customers’ investments in Small Modular Reactors, traditional large-scale nuclear and advanced reactors, in Canada and around the world.”
BWX Technologies has landed deals and partnerships with GE Vernova, the Wyoming Energy Authority, Bill Gates-backed SMR company TerraPower, and beyond. BWXT’s beat-and-raise second quarter was supported, in part, by a growing “appetite for nuclear solutions across the global security, clean energy, and medical markets.”
BWXT is projected to post solid mid-single-digit sales and earnings growth in 2024 and 2025.
BWX Technologies stock has climbed 250% in the last 10 years to outpace the S&P 500’s 190% and its industry’s 110%. BWXT broke out to new highs last summer, with the stock up 38% the last 12 months.
BWXT is trading above its 21-week and 21-day moving averages while sitting 5% below its average Zacks price target.
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>>> Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) an Under-the-Radar Nuclear Energy Stock?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-nuclear-energy-stocks-buy-110000268.html
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a top supplier of nuclear technologies, components, and fuel to the U.S. government, including U.S. naval submarines and aircraft carriers. BWX Technologies is actively growing its commercial nuclear power segment and other non-defense units.
BWXT owns one of the largest commercial nuclear equipment manufacturing facilities on the planet. BWXT is expanding that operation to “support ongoing and anticipated customers’ investments in Small Modular Reactors, traditional large-scale nuclear and advanced reactors, in Canada and around the world.”
BWX Technologies has landed deals and partnerships with GE Vernova, the Wyoming Energy Authority, Bill Gates-backed SMR company TerraPower, and beyond. BWXT’s beat-and-raise second quarter was supported, in part, by a growing “appetite for nuclear solutions across the global security, clean energy, and medical markets.”
BWXT is projected to post solid mid-single-digit sales and earnings growth in 2024 and 2025.
BWX Technologies stock has climbed 250% in the last 10 years to outpace the S&P 500’s 190% and its industry’s 110%. BWXT broke out to new highs last summer, with the stock up 38% the last 12 months.
BWXT is trading above its 21-week and 21-day moving averages while sitting 5% below its average Zacks price target.
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>>> Pfizer, joining Lilly, enters the direct-to-consumer market with a telehealth and prescription platform
Yahoo Finance
by Anjalee Khemlani
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-joining-lilly-enters-the-direct-to-consumer-market-with-a-telehealth-and-prescription-platform-120250691.html
On Tuesday, Pfizer (PFE) said it will enter the direct-to-consumer business, following the lead of a Big Pharma rival, Eli Lilly (LLY), which launched a similar plan in January.
The new website and patient platform, called PfizerForAll, aims to help patients more quickly access migraine treatments as well as vaccines and treatments for respiratory viruses like COVID-19 and the flu. While these are all products of Pfizer, the company contends that patients will not be forced to choose a Pfizer drug. That decision, they say, will remain in the hands of clinicians.
Pfizer chief US commercial officer Aamir Malik told Yahoo Finance the company is hoping to make access to medicines easier. "Navigating our healthcare system is time-consuming. It's complicated. It's overwhelming. And the last thing that anybody needs when they're trying to get the care that they need for themselves or a loved one is to have to navigate that complex, painful, difficult system," Malik said.
Malik and others point out that patients often have to search for doctors who can write the prescriptions they need quickly — or even find a doctor who will see them in a timely manner, Malik said.
Adding to the complexity is the insurance process, which involves various coverage hurdles, such as pre-authorization requests and the hunt for a pharmacy that can dispense the drug at a lower co-pay cost.
But Pfizer's goal isn't to eradicate that complex system. Instead, Malik emphasized that the new portal will simply serve as an additional avenue for patients to get the drugs they are already familiar with, and also introduce new patients to the drugs. (It won't be able to help with drug shortages, as that issue rests with drug manufacturers.)
In addition, the site will have a customer helpline for patients if they run into any of the usual hurdles. That includes contacting the insurer to remove any access barriers or guiding the patients on how to contact the insurers themselves if needed.
How it works
Pfizer will use social media ads to find patients and funnel them to the new portal. The entry point will be whatever health problem the patient is trying to resolve, such as addressing migraine pain. That will lead to a specific landing page, which will offer a telehealth visit through a third-party vendor, UpScript, for $35 or an in-person visit with the booking portal Zocdoc.
At that point, the patient is outside of the Pfizer portal and has a visit with a clinician who can prescribe an appropriate drug. This could be a Pfizer drug — or not, Malik said.
There is no revenue sharing from the clinical visits or the prescriptions, which means that clinicians aren't getting paid or sharing in profits of the sales if they prescribe a Pfizer drug.
Patients can then get the drug mailed or pick it up at their regular pharmacy. In the case of vaccines, Pfizer will help book appointments at major retail pharmacies CVS (CVS) or Walgreens (WBA), which have more than 17,000 locations combined across the country — and more pharmacies anticipated in the future. Under respiratory care, Pfizer will also offer access to at-home tests through Instacart (CART) the same day or via two-day shipping from Amazon (AMZN).
Pfizer said that the company doesn't see this as a profit-focused business. "We're not building this as a standalone business with a revenue and a profit objective to it," Malik told Yahoo Finance. "We're not holding revenue targets to PfizerForAll." Instead, the company will measure success on how popular the site is.
The market
Eli Lilly launched its site, LillyDirect, earlier this year to help patients with diabetes, obesity, and migraines.
Lilly CEO David Ricks noted that the telehealth solution helps obesity patients the most — especially those hunting for its blockbuster drug, Zepbound. He told Yahoo Finance in January that "patients report doctor shopping" for someone who will write their prescription. That's why the site, in addition to offering telehealth, can also help find an obesity specialist by zip code.
LillyDirect is similar to PfizerForAll in that it relies on replicating the traditional pathway to get a prescription. But the clinicians are different. Whereas Pfizer is using one platform for telehealth and ZocDoc for doctor's visits, Lilly is using three different telehealth platforms.
For diabetes and obesity, Lilly is using 9amHealth, which accepts a limited number of insurance plans only in Texas and California. It is unclear if patients in other states have access. Lilly is also using FormHealth for obesity, which accepts most major insurers and Medicare. For migraine treatments, the company partnered with Cove, which accepts insurers and has a $30 copay or costs $99 for a visit without insurance.
Compare that to the $35 flat fee through Pfizer for UpScript.
In the eight months since its launch, it is unclear how well LillyDirect is doing. Lilly declined to provide Yahoo Finance with updates on traffic to the site.
In a first quarter earnings call in April, Lilly USA Diabetes and Obesity president Patrik Jonsson said that the site was "gaining traction by weeks." But in response to a question about tracking prescriptions for GLP-1 weight loss drug Zepbound, Jonsson said, "It's relatively low volume that goes through LillyDirect."
But new patients, who are filling prescriptions for the drug for the first time in their lives through the site, was slightly higher, he said. No specific numbers were provided.
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>>> Pfizer, joining Lilly, enters the direct-to-consumer market with a telehealth and prescription platform
Yahoo Finance
by Anjalee Khemlani
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-joining-lilly-enters-the-direct-to-consumer-market-with-a-telehealth-and-prescription-platform-120250691.html
On Tuesday, Pfizer (PFE) said it will enter the direct-to-consumer business, following the lead of a Big Pharma rival, Eli Lilly (LLY), which launched a similar plan in January.
The new website and patient platform, called PfizerForAll, aims to help patients more quickly access migraine treatments as well as vaccines and treatments for respiratory viruses like COVID-19 and the flu. While these are all products of Pfizer, the company contends that patients will not be forced to choose a Pfizer drug. That decision, they say, will remain in the hands of clinicians.
Pfizer chief US commercial officer Aamir Malik told Yahoo Finance the company is hoping to make access to medicines easier. "Navigating our healthcare system is time-consuming. It's complicated. It's overwhelming. And the last thing that anybody needs when they're trying to get the care that they need for themselves or a loved one is to have to navigate that complex, painful, difficult system," Malik said.
Malik and others point out that patients often have to search for doctors who can write the prescriptions they need quickly — or even find a doctor who will see them in a timely manner, Malik said.
Adding to the complexity is the insurance process, which involves various coverage hurdles, such as pre-authorization requests and the hunt for a pharmacy that can dispense the drug at a lower co-pay cost.
But Pfizer's goal isn't to eradicate that complex system. Instead, Malik emphasized that the new portal will simply serve as an additional avenue for patients to get the drugs they are already familiar with, and also introduce new patients to the drugs. (It won't be able to help with drug shortages, as that issue rests with drug manufacturers.)
In addition, the site will have a customer helpline for patients if they run into any of the usual hurdles. That includes contacting the insurer to remove any access barriers or guiding the patients on how to contact the insurers themselves if needed.
How it works
Pfizer will use social media ads to find patients and funnel them to the new portal. The entry point will be whatever health problem the patient is trying to resolve, such as addressing migraine pain. That will lead to a specific landing page, which will offer a telehealth visit through a third-party vendor, UpScript, for $35 or an in-person visit with the booking portal Zocdoc.
At that point, the patient is outside of the Pfizer portal and has a visit with a clinician who can prescribe an appropriate drug. This could be a Pfizer drug — or not, Malik said.
There is no revenue sharing from the clinical visits or the prescriptions, which means that clinicians aren't getting paid or sharing in profits of the sales if they prescribe a Pfizer drug.
Patients can then get the drug mailed or pick it up at their regular pharmacy. In the case of vaccines, Pfizer will help book appointments at major retail pharmacies CVS (CVS) or Walgreens (WBA), which have more than 17,000 locations combined across the country — and more pharmacies anticipated in the future. Under respiratory care, Pfizer will also offer access to at-home tests through Instacart (CART) the same day or via two-day shipping from Amazon (AMZN).
Pfizer said that the company doesn't see this as a profit-focused business. "We're not building this as a standalone business with a revenue and a profit objective to it," Malik told Yahoo Finance. "We're not holding revenue targets to PfizerForAll." Instead, the company will measure success on how popular the site is.
The market
Eli Lilly launched its site, LillyDirect, earlier this year to help patients with diabetes, obesity, and migraines.
Lilly CEO David Ricks noted that the telehealth solution helps obesity patients the most — especially those hunting for its blockbuster drug, Zepbound. He told Yahoo Finance in January that "patients report doctor shopping" for someone who will write their prescription. That's why the site, in addition to offering telehealth, can also help find an obesity specialist by zip code.
LillyDirect is similar to PfizerForAll in that it relies on replicating the traditional pathway to get a prescription. But the clinicians are different. Whereas Pfizer is using one platform for telehealth and ZocDoc for doctor's visits, Lilly is using three different telehealth platforms.
For diabetes and obesity, Lilly is using 9amHealth, which accepts a limited number of insurance plans only in Texas and California. It is unclear if patients in other states have access. Lilly is also using FormHealth for obesity, which accepts most major insurers and Medicare. For migraine treatments, the company partnered with Cove, which accepts insurers and has a $30 copay or costs $99 for a visit without insurance.
Compare that to the $35 flat fee through Pfizer for UpScript.
In the eight months since its launch, it is unclear how well LillyDirect is doing. Lilly declined to provide Yahoo Finance with updates on traffic to the site.
In a first quarter earnings call in April, Lilly USA Diabetes and Obesity president Patrik Jonsson said that the site was "gaining traction by weeks." But in response to a question about tracking prescriptions for GLP-1 weight loss drug Zepbound, Jonsson said, "It's relatively low volume that goes through LillyDirect."
But new patients, who are filling prescriptions for the drug for the first time in their lives through the site, was slightly higher, he said. No specific numbers were provided.
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>>> D.R. Horton -- When interest rates drop, mortgage rates usually do, too. And when mortgage rates decline, more Americans can afford to borrow money to build new homes. Rate cuts, therefore, can provide nice catalysts for housing stocks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-buy-hand-over-095000813.html
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) isn't just any housing stock; it's been the biggest homebuilder in the U.S. by volume for over 20 years. The company operates in 118 markets across 33 states. D.R. Horton builds residential houses and single-family and multifamily rental units, and provides mortgage financing and title agency services.
The stock is surprisingly cheap considering the gains it's racked up in recent years. D.R. Horton's forward earnings multiple is only 12.2. Its price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, based on five years of projected earnings growth, is a low 0.64.
Even if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon, D.R. Horton should still be a tremendous winner over the long term. The U.S. continues to suffer from an acute housing shortage, and the obvious solution to this problem is to build more homes -- exactly what D.R. Horton wants to do.
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>>> D.R. Horton -- When interest rates drop, mortgage rates usually do, too. And when mortgage rates decline, more Americans can afford to borrow money to build new homes. Rate cuts, therefore, can provide nice catalysts for housing stocks.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-buy-hand-over-095000813.html
D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) isn't just any housing stock; it's been the biggest homebuilder in the U.S. by volume for over 20 years. The company operates in 118 markets across 33 states. D.R. Horton builds residential houses and single-family and multifamily rental units, and provides mortgage financing and title agency services.
The stock is surprisingly cheap considering the gains it's racked up in recent years. D.R. Horton's forward earnings multiple is only 12.2. Its price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, based on five years of projected earnings growth, is a low 0.64.
Even if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon, D.R. Horton should still be a tremendous winner over the long term. The U.S. continues to suffer from an acute housing shortage, and the obvious solution to this problem is to build more homes -- exactly what D.R. Horton wants to do.
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>>> Super Micro stock plunges 19% after company delays annual report following short-seller report
Yahoo Finance
Ines Ferré
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-stock-plunges-19-after-company-delays-annual-report-following-short-seller-report-200333718.html
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock plunged 19% on Wednesday after the company said it would delay the filing of its annual report for its fiscal year that ended June 30.
The announcement comes a day after short seller Hindenburg Research claimed, among other things, "accounting manipulation" at the artificial intelligence high flyer.
"SMCI is unable to file its Annual Report within the prescribed time period without unreasonable effort or expense," the company said in a statement. "Additional time is needed for SMCI’s management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024."
Super Micro shares soared from $290 in early January to about $1,200 by March, when the stock was added to the S&P 500 (^GSPC). The ticker also joined the Nasdaq 100 index (^NDX) in July.
Super Micro stock is now off more than 60% from its March peak but is still up 50% year to date. The company recently announced a 10-for-1 stock split effective Oct. 1.
The stock fell about 2% on Tuesday after Hindenburg said its three-month investigation "found glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." The firm also disclosed it had taken a short position in Super Micro.
The maker of data center servers and management software captured the attention of investors this year as it rode the AI wave. The company buys components from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
Short sellers have been rewarded heavily from the stock's plunge.
Wednesday's drop in Super Micro’s stock price made short sellers more than $840 million in mark-to-market profits, according to S3 Partners data.
"SMCI shorts have been building their positions since SMCI was in the $900’s in April but have really put the pedal to the metal since mid-July," S3 Partners head of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
"We expect continued short selling in SMCI as it’s stock price keep dipping – but beware of a slew of buy-to-covers when its stock price stabilizes and short sellers look to realize their recent outsized gains," added Dusaniwsky.
On Wednesday CFRA analysts downgraded the stock's rating to a Hold from Buy following Hindenburg Research's allegations.
"While we believe the evidence presented does not conclusively demonstrate significant accounting malpractice or verifiable sanction evasions, SMCI's delayed 10-K filing and potential reputational damage raises concerns," wrote CFRA Research senior equity analyst Shreya Gheewala.
In its report, Hindenburg claimed that despite a $17.5 million settlement in August 2020 with the SEC following an inquiry for "widespread accounting violations," Super Micro's business practices did not improve, and senior executives who had left amid the scandal were later rehired.
The report quoted a former salesperson: "Almost all of them are back. Almost all of the people that were let go that were the cause of this malfeasance."
"Even after the SEC settlement, pressure to meet quotas pushed salespeople to stuff the channel with distributors using 'partial shipments' or by shipping defective products around quarter-end, per our interviews with former employees and customers," Hindenburg said in its report.
"All told, we believe Super Micro is a serial recidivist."
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>>> Super Micro stock plunges 19% after company delays annual report following short-seller report
Yahoo Finance
Ines Ferré
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-stock-plunges-19-after-company-delays-annual-report-following-short-seller-report-200333718.html
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock plunged 19% on Wednesday after the company said it would delay the filing of its annual report for its fiscal year that ended June 30.
The announcement comes a day after short seller Hindenburg Research claimed, among other things, "accounting manipulation" at the artificial intelligence high flyer.
"SMCI is unable to file its Annual Report within the prescribed time period without unreasonable effort or expense," the company said in a statement. "Additional time is needed for SMCI’s management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024."
Super Micro shares soared from $290 in early January to about $1,200 by March, when the stock was added to the S&P 500 (^GSPC). The ticker also joined the Nasdaq 100 index (^NDX) in July.
Super Micro stock is now off more than 60% from its March peak but is still up 50% year to date. The company recently announced a 10-for-1 stock split effective Oct. 1.
The stock fell about 2% on Tuesday after Hindenburg said its three-month investigation "found glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." The firm also disclosed it had taken a short position in Super Micro.
The maker of data center servers and management software captured the attention of investors this year as it rode the AI wave. The company buys components from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
Short sellers have been rewarded heavily from the stock's plunge.
Wednesday's drop in Super Micro’s stock price made short sellers more than $840 million in mark-to-market profits, according to S3 Partners data.
"SMCI shorts have been building their positions since SMCI was in the $900’s in April but have really put the pedal to the metal since mid-July," S3 Partners head of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
"We expect continued short selling in SMCI as it’s stock price keep dipping – but beware of a slew of buy-to-covers when its stock price stabilizes and short sellers look to realize their recent outsized gains," added Dusaniwsky.
On Wednesday CFRA analysts downgraded the stock's rating to a Hold from Buy following Hindenburg Research's allegations.
"While we believe the evidence presented does not conclusively demonstrate significant accounting malpractice or verifiable sanction evasions, SMCI's delayed 10-K filing and potential reputational damage raises concerns," wrote CFRA Research senior equity analyst Shreya Gheewala.
In its report, Hindenburg claimed that despite a $17.5 million settlement in August 2020 with the SEC following an inquiry for "widespread accounting violations," Super Micro's business practices did not improve, and senior executives who had left amid the scandal were later rehired.
The report quoted a former salesperson: "Almost all of them are back. Almost all of the people that were let go that were the cause of this malfeasance."
"Even after the SEC settlement, pressure to meet quotas pushed salespeople to stuff the channel with distributors using 'partial shipments' or by shipping defective products around quarter-end, per our interviews with former employees and customers," Hindenburg said in its report.
"All told, we believe Super Micro is a serial recidivist."
<<<
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>>> Super Micro stock plunges 19% after company delays annual report following short-seller report
Yahoo Finance
Ines Ferré
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-stock-plunges-19-after-company-delays-annual-report-following-short-seller-report-200333718.html
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock plunged 19% on Wednesday after the company said it would delay the filing of its annual report for its fiscal year that ended June 30.
The announcement comes a day after short seller Hindenburg Research claimed, among other things, "accounting manipulation" at the artificial intelligence high flyer.
"SMCI is unable to file its Annual Report within the prescribed time period without unreasonable effort or expense," the company said in a statement. "Additional time is needed for SMCI’s management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024."
Super Micro shares soared from $290 in early January to about $1,200 by March, when the stock was added to the S&P 500 (^GSPC). The ticker also joined the Nasdaq 100 index (^NDX) in July.
Super Micro stock is now off more than 60% from its March peak but is still up 50% year to date. The company recently announced a 10-for-1 stock split effective Oct. 1.
The stock fell about 2% on Tuesday after Hindenburg said its three-month investigation "found glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." The firm also disclosed it had taken a short position in Super Micro.
The maker of data center servers and management software captured the attention of investors this year as it rode the AI wave. The company buys components from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
Short sellers have been rewarded heavily from the stock's plunge.
Wednesday's drop in Super Micro’s stock price made short sellers more than $840 million in mark-to-market profits, according to S3 Partners data.
"SMCI shorts have been building their positions since SMCI was in the $900’s in April but have really put the pedal to the metal since mid-July," S3 Partners head of predictive analytics Ihor Dusaniwsky told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
"We expect continued short selling in SMCI as it’s stock price keep dipping – but beware of a slew of buy-to-covers when its stock price stabilizes and short sellers look to realize their recent outsized gains," added Dusaniwsky.
On Wednesday CFRA analysts downgraded the stock's rating to a Hold from Buy following Hindenburg Research's allegations.
"While we believe the evidence presented does not conclusively demonstrate significant accounting malpractice or verifiable sanction evasions, SMCI's delayed 10-K filing and potential reputational damage raises concerns," wrote CFRA Research senior equity analyst Shreya Gheewala.
In its report, Hindenburg claimed that despite a $17.5 million settlement in August 2020 with the SEC following an inquiry for "widespread accounting violations," Super Micro's business practices did not improve, and senior executives who had left amid the scandal were later rehired.
The report quoted a former salesperson: "Almost all of them are back. Almost all of the people that were let go that were the cause of this malfeasance."
"Even after the SEC settlement, pressure to meet quotas pushed salespeople to stuff the channel with distributors using 'partial shipments' or by shipping defective products around quarter-end, per our interviews with former employees and customers," Hindenburg said in its report.
"All told, we believe Super Micro is a serial recidivist."
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>>> Mastercard (MA) is a payment processing company with a total of around 3.4 billion debit and credit cards issued worldwide. The business is one of two dominant payment companies in the world with the other being Visa, and had a market share of 27.4% in the U.S. back in 2022, up from its five-year average of 22%, according to Nilson Report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-magnificent-stocks-im-never-091000164.html
Mastercard boasts solid financials with revenue rising from $18.9 billion in 2021 to $25.1 billion in 2023. Net income jumped from $8.7 billion to $11.2 billion over the same period, and the business is also highly free-cash-flow generative with an average of $9.9 billion churned out over the three years. Mastercard also increased its quarterly dividend by 16% year over year to $0.66 at the end of last year, representing more than a decade of consecutive dividend increases.
The strong performance has continued in the first half of 2024. Mastercard saw its revenue rise 10% year over year to $13.3 billion while net income shot up 20.4% year over year to $6.3 billion. The good results were attributed to robust consumer spending and a tourism rebound that saw cross-border transaction volume climb 17% year over year for the second quarter of 2024. Free cash flow came in at $4.1 billion, inching up 2.6% year over year from $4 billion in the previous comparative period.
With Mastercard's solid reputation and track record, I am confident that the business can continue to grow steadily over the years while increasing its dividends along the way.
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>>> Mastercard (MA) is a payment processing company with a total of around 3.4 billion debit and credit cards issued worldwide. The business is one of two dominant payment companies in the world with the other being Visa, and had a market share of 27.4% in the U.S. back in 2022, up from its five-year average of 22%, according to Nilson Report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-magnificent-stocks-im-never-091000164.html
Mastercard boasts solid financials with revenue rising from $18.9 billion in 2021 to $25.1 billion in 2023. Net income jumped from $8.7 billion to $11.2 billion over the same period, and the business is also highly free-cash-flow generative with an average of $9.9 billion churned out over the three years. Mastercard also increased its quarterly dividend by 16% year over year to $0.66 at the end of last year, representing more than a decade of consecutive dividend increases.
The strong performance has continued in the first half of 2024. Mastercard saw its revenue rise 10% year over year to $13.3 billion while net income shot up 20.4% year over year to $6.3 billion. The good results were attributed to robust consumer spending and a tourism rebound that saw cross-border transaction volume climb 17% year over year for the second quarter of 2024. Free cash flow came in at $4.1 billion, inching up 2.6% year over year from $4 billion in the previous comparative period.
With Mastercard's solid reputation and track record, I am confident that the business can continue to grow steadily over the years while increasing its dividends along the way.
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FTI Consulting - >>> 3 Stocks to Buy From the Prospering Consulting Services Industry
Zacks
by Arghyadeep Bose
Aug 1, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-buy-prospering-consulting-144000822.html
Gartner: This research and advisory firm is currently riding on higher compensation costs. The company’s research segment, which is its largest and most profitable segment, serves leaders across all functions of an enterprise in every industry and geography.
IT currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased 1.7% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 2.7% year over year in 2024. IT shares have gained 47.1% in the past year.
Exponent: This science and engineering consulting company is benefiting from its reactive business, driven by demand across the transportation, utilities and medical device sectors. The company’s proactive business is observing modest growth in the utility sector.
EXPO presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased marginally in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 5.7% year over year in 2024. EXPO shares have gained 18.6% in the past year.
FTI Consulting: This business advisory services provider is benefiting from strong segmental revenues. The rise in Corporate Finance & Restructuring revenues has been driven by higher demand and realized bill rates for business transformation, and strategy and transaction services. On the Economic Consulting front, the company witnessed higher demand and realized bill rates for M&A-related antitrust and financial economic services. The Technology segment’s revenues are riding on higher demand for M&A-related second request services.
FCN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 EPS has increased 3.2% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 10% year over year in 2024. FCN shares have gained more than 18.1% in the past year.
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Gartner, Exponent, FTI Consulting - >>> 3 Stocks to Buy From the Prospering Consulting Services Industry
Zacks
by Arghyadeep Bose
Aug 1, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stocks-buy-prospering-consulting-144000822.html
Gartner: This research and advisory firm is currently riding on higher compensation costs. The company’s research segment, which is its largest and most profitable segment, serves leaders across all functions of an enterprise in every industry and geography.
IT currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased 1.7% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 2.7% year over year in 2024. IT shares have gained 47.1% in the past year.
Exponent: This science and engineering consulting company is benefiting from its reactive business, driven by demand across the transportation, utilities and medical device sectors. The company’s proactive business is observing modest growth in the utility sector.
EXPO presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2024 bottom line has increased marginally in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 5.7% year over year in 2024. EXPO shares have gained 18.6% in the past year.
FTI Consulting: This business advisory services provider is benefiting from strong segmental revenues. The rise in Corporate Finance & Restructuring revenues has been driven by higher demand and realized bill rates for business transformation, and strategy and transaction services. On the Economic Consulting front, the company witnessed higher demand and realized bill rates for M&A-related antitrust and financial economic services. The Technology segment’s revenues are riding on higher demand for M&A-related second request services.
FCN currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 EPS has increased 3.2% in the past 90 days. Earnings are expected to rise 10% year over year in 2024. FCN shares have gained more than 18.1% in the past year.
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Novo Nordisk - >>> Ozempic Could Have a Terrible Side Effect. Is Novo Nordisk in Trouble?
by Prosper Junior Bakiny
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ozempic-could-terrible-side-effect-100000193.html
The diabetes medicine Ozempic has been a veritable cash cow for Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). The company's revenue, earnings, and stock price have been on a tear in recent years -- and no single drug has contributed more to its performance than Ozempic.
However, various potential headwinds have popped up that could disrupt Ozempic's progress. One of them is competition. Novo Nordisk's longtime foe in the diabetes market, Eli Lilly, developed Mounjaro, a diabetes medicine whose sales are growing incredibly fast.
Elsewhere, the side effects of Novo Nordisk's crown jewel have come under increased scrutiny, and a recent study suggests that Ozempic could have a dangerous safety issue. Let's look at what it could mean for Novo Nordisk.
Could Ozempic cause suicidal thoughts?
One of Ozempic's side effects that has generated quite a bit of attention is muscle loss. However, an even more dangerous potential drawback that some researchers have warned about is the possibility that Ozempic could increase suicidal thoughts.
A recent study claims to shed more light on this topic. The study looked at two medicines in the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, to which semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, belongs. The other GLP-1 medicine featured was liraglutide, the generic name for Victoza and Saxenda, which treat diabetes and obesity, respectively.
Liraglutide was another one of Novo Nordisk's discoveries. Through a database from the World Health Organization that tracks suspected adverse reactions from medicines and vaccines, the researchers found that Ozempic was associated with a higher rate of reported suicidal thoughts compared to other drugs. Liraglutide did not seem to be linked with higher rates of suicidal thoughts.
What should investors make of these findings? Should you sell the healthcare stock?
No reason to hit the panic button
Regulatory authorities are already aware of the potential association between Ozempic -- or at least its active ingredient, semaglutide -- and suicidal thoughts. Wegovy, an obesity medicine that shares this same active ingredient, has a warning for precisely that in the U.S.
Researchers sometimes learn even more about a therapy and its side effects after years of use in real-life settings. If studies establish a robust causal link between Ozempic or Wegovy and suicidal thoughts, that could cause regulators to take action. Perhaps they would add additional warnings or, in the worst-case scenario, take the medicine off the market. Either way, it would mean lower (or nonexistent) sales for Novo Nordisk's biggest growth driver, dragging down its revenue, earnings, and stock price.
But there's no reason to think this study will lead to that morbid scenario. Other studies have reached different conclusions. One published in Nature Medicine, one of the world's most prestigious science journals, found that semaglutide had a lower risk of producing suicidal thoughts than other non-GLP-1 anti-obesity medicines in real-life settings. This study, unlike the previous one, compared patients based on factors that can influence suicidal behavior, including sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and mental health.
It would take a lot to reverse these findings. So, for now, investors can continue focusing on how Novo Nordisk is performing. And on that front, there aren't too many complaints.
Financial results continue to be strong. In the first half of the year, the company's net sales grew by 24% year over year to 133.4 billion Danish kroner ($19.8 billion). Ozempic's sales increased 36% year over year, while Wegovy's jumped 74%. Notably, Novo Nordisk continues to lead the GLP-1 market -- its share was 56% as of May, compared to 54% a year before.
Ozempic could win several label expansions, including in the exciting area of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, where it's being investigated in a phase 3 study. Novo Nordisk has many more promising candidates. CagriSema, a next-gen GLP-1 drug, could be yet another multibillion-dollar medicine. The drugmaker is also looking to diversify, with several programs across a range of therapeutic areas.
Though various challenges to Ozempic will continue to appear, the recent study doesn't pose too much of a problem for the medicine and its maker. Novo Nordisk should continue delivering strong financial results and stock-market performance for the foreseeable future. I believe the stock is still worth buying.
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>>> Ozempic Could Have a Terrible Side Effect. Is Novo Nordisk in Trouble?
by Prosper Junior Bakiny
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ozempic-could-terrible-side-effect-100000193.html
The diabetes medicine Ozempic has been a veritable cash cow for Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). The company's revenue, earnings, and stock price have been on a tear in recent years -- and no single drug has contributed more to its performance than Ozempic.
However, various potential headwinds have popped up that could disrupt Ozempic's progress. One of them is competition. Novo Nordisk's longtime foe in the diabetes market, Eli Lilly, developed Mounjaro, a diabetes medicine whose sales are growing incredibly fast.
Elsewhere, the side effects of Novo Nordisk's crown jewel have come under increased scrutiny, and a recent study suggests that Ozempic could have a dangerous safety issue. Let's look at what it could mean for Novo Nordisk.
Could Ozempic cause suicidal thoughts?
One of Ozempic's side effects that has generated quite a bit of attention is muscle loss. However, an even more dangerous potential drawback that some researchers have warned about is the possibility that Ozempic could increase suicidal thoughts.
A recent study claims to shed more light on this topic. The study looked at two medicines in the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, to which semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, belongs. The other GLP-1 medicine featured was liraglutide, the generic name for Victoza and Saxenda, which treat diabetes and obesity, respectively.
Liraglutide was another one of Novo Nordisk's discoveries. Through a database from the World Health Organization that tracks suspected adverse reactions from medicines and vaccines, the researchers found that Ozempic was associated with a higher rate of reported suicidal thoughts compared to other drugs. Liraglutide did not seem to be linked with higher rates of suicidal thoughts.
What should investors make of these findings? Should you sell the healthcare stock?
No reason to hit the panic button
Regulatory authorities are already aware of the potential association between Ozempic -- or at least its active ingredient, semaglutide -- and suicidal thoughts. Wegovy, an obesity medicine that shares this same active ingredient, has a warning for precisely that in the U.S.
Researchers sometimes learn even more about a therapy and its side effects after years of use in real-life settings. If studies establish a robust causal link between Ozempic or Wegovy and suicidal thoughts, that could cause regulators to take action. Perhaps they would add additional warnings or, in the worst-case scenario, take the medicine off the market. Either way, it would mean lower (or nonexistent) sales for Novo Nordisk's biggest growth driver, dragging down its revenue, earnings, and stock price.
But there's no reason to think this study will lead to that morbid scenario. Other studies have reached different conclusions. One published in Nature Medicine, one of the world's most prestigious science journals, found that semaglutide had a lower risk of producing suicidal thoughts than other non-GLP-1 anti-obesity medicines in real-life settings. This study, unlike the previous one, compared patients based on factors that can influence suicidal behavior, including sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and mental health.
It would take a lot to reverse these findings. So, for now, investors can continue focusing on how Novo Nordisk is performing. And on that front, there aren't too many complaints.
Financial results continue to be strong. In the first half of the year, the company's net sales grew by 24% year over year to 133.4 billion Danish kroner ($19.8 billion). Ozempic's sales increased 36% year over year, while Wegovy's jumped 74%. Notably, Novo Nordisk continues to lead the GLP-1 market -- its share was 56% as of May, compared to 54% a year before.
Ozempic could win several label expansions, including in the exciting area of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, where it's being investigated in a phase 3 study. Novo Nordisk has many more promising candidates. CagriSema, a next-gen GLP-1 drug, could be yet another multibillion-dollar medicine. The drugmaker is also looking to diversify, with several programs across a range of therapeutic areas.
Though various challenges to Ozempic will continue to appear, the recent study doesn't pose too much of a problem for the medicine and its maker. Novo Nordisk should continue delivering strong financial results and stock-market performance for the foreseeable future. I believe the stock is still worth buying.
<<<
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>>> Ozempic Could Have a Terrible Side Effect. Is Novo Nordisk in Trouble?
by Prosper Junior Bakiny
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ozempic-could-terrible-side-effect-100000193.html
The diabetes medicine Ozempic has been a veritable cash cow for Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). The company's revenue, earnings, and stock price have been on a tear in recent years -- and no single drug has contributed more to its performance than Ozempic.
However, various potential headwinds have popped up that could disrupt Ozempic's progress. One of them is competition. Novo Nordisk's longtime foe in the diabetes market, Eli Lilly, developed Mounjaro, a diabetes medicine whose sales are growing incredibly fast.
Elsewhere, the side effects of Novo Nordisk's crown jewel have come under increased scrutiny, and a recent study suggests that Ozempic could have a dangerous safety issue. Let's look at what it could mean for Novo Nordisk.
Could Ozempic cause suicidal thoughts?
One of Ozempic's side effects that has generated quite a bit of attention is muscle loss. However, an even more dangerous potential drawback that some researchers have warned about is the possibility that Ozempic could increase suicidal thoughts.
A recent study claims to shed more light on this topic. The study looked at two medicines in the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, to which semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, belongs. The other GLP-1 medicine featured was liraglutide, the generic name for Victoza and Saxenda, which treat diabetes and obesity, respectively.
Liraglutide was another one of Novo Nordisk's discoveries. Through a database from the World Health Organization that tracks suspected adverse reactions from medicines and vaccines, the researchers found that Ozempic was associated with a higher rate of reported suicidal thoughts compared to other drugs. Liraglutide did not seem to be linked with higher rates of suicidal thoughts.
What should investors make of these findings? Should you sell the healthcare stock?
No reason to hit the panic button
Regulatory authorities are already aware of the potential association between Ozempic -- or at least its active ingredient, semaglutide -- and suicidal thoughts. Wegovy, an obesity medicine that shares this same active ingredient, has a warning for precisely that in the U.S.
Researchers sometimes learn even more about a therapy and its side effects after years of use in real-life settings. If studies establish a robust causal link between Ozempic or Wegovy and suicidal thoughts, that could cause regulators to take action. Perhaps they would add additional warnings or, in the worst-case scenario, take the medicine off the market. Either way, it would mean lower (or nonexistent) sales for Novo Nordisk's biggest growth driver, dragging down its revenue, earnings, and stock price.
But there's no reason to think this study will lead to that morbid scenario. Other studies have reached different conclusions. One published in Nature Medicine, one of the world's most prestigious science journals, found that semaglutide had a lower risk of producing suicidal thoughts than other non-GLP-1 anti-obesity medicines in real-life settings. This study, unlike the previous one, compared patients based on factors that can influence suicidal behavior, including sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, and mental health.
It would take a lot to reverse these findings. So, for now, investors can continue focusing on how Novo Nordisk is performing. And on that front, there aren't too many complaints.
Financial results continue to be strong. In the first half of the year, the company's net sales grew by 24% year over year to 133.4 billion Danish kroner ($19.8 billion). Ozempic's sales increased 36% year over year, while Wegovy's jumped 74%. Notably, Novo Nordisk continues to lead the GLP-1 market -- its share was 56% as of May, compared to 54% a year before.
Ozempic could win several label expansions, including in the exciting area of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, where it's being investigated in a phase 3 study. Novo Nordisk has many more promising candidates. CagriSema, a next-gen GLP-1 drug, could be yet another multibillion-dollar medicine. The drugmaker is also looking to diversify, with several programs across a range of therapeutic areas.
Though various challenges to Ozempic will continue to appear, the recent study doesn't pose too much of a problem for the medicine and its maker. Novo Nordisk should continue delivering strong financial results and stock-market performance for the foreseeable future. I believe the stock is still worth buying.
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Celsius Holdings -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015388
>>> Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) develops, processes, markets, distributes, and sells functional energy drinks and liquid supplements in the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canadian, European, Middle Eastern, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company offers CELSIUS, a fitness drink or supplement designed to accelerate metabolism and burn body fat; various flavors and carbonated and non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Originals and Vibe name, as well as functional energy drink under the CELSIUS Essentials and CELSIUS On-the-Go Powder names; and CELSIUS ready-to drink products. It distributes its products through direct-to-store delivery, distributors, supermarkets, convenience stores, drug stores, nutritional stores, and mass merchants, as well as health clubs, gyms, the military, and e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Vector Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to Celsius Holdings, Inc. in January 2007. Celsius Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
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Celsius Holdings - >>> 4 Reasons to Buy Celsius Stock Like There's No Tomorrow
by Leo Sun
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-reasons-buy-celsius-stock-092000173.html
Celsius' (NASDAQ: CELH) stock is down nearly 60% since it hit its record high this March. The energy drink maker's stock fizzled out as investors fretted over its slowing sales growth, declining domestic market share, and some big inventory reductions at its distribution partner PepsiCo. It also struggled to maintain its high valuations in a high interest rate environment.
Nevertheless, now could be the right time to buy Celsius' stock. There are four simple reasons why.
1. Celsius is still one of the fastest-growing beverage makers
Celsius carved out a niche by selling sugar-free energy drinks made from all-natural ingredients like green tea, ginger, and taurine. That strategy attracted a lot of attention from younger health-conscious consumers, and Celsius' annual revenue more than doubled in each of the past three years.
That's why the bulls were disappointed when Celsius' revenue only rose 29% year over year in the first half of 2024. However, that slowdown wasn't too surprising because fully lapped its new domestic distribution deal with PepsiCo, which started in August 2022 and significantly boosted its sales throughout 2022 and 2023.
Analysts expect its revenue to only rise 19% this year, but they expect it to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2024 to 2026. That would still make it one of the fastest-growing beverage makers in the world. Its larger competitor, Monster Beverage, is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2023 to 2026.
2. Celsius' near-term headwinds aren't that severe
On May 28, Nielsen reported that Celsius' U.S. market share had dipped 30 basis points on a weekly basis to 10.5%. By the week ending on Aug. 10, its share had slipped to 9.6%. That ongoing decline might seem like a red flag since Celsius still generated 95% of its revenue from North America in the first half of 2024.
However, Nielsen's latest data showed that Celsius actually grew faster year over year than all of its domestic competitors in the four weeks leading up to Aug. 10. Celsius' sales rose 8.8% year over year, which outpaced Red Bull's 1.8% growth and Monster's 3.5% decline (excluding its acquisition of Bang energy drinks from Vital Pharmaceuticals last year). On its own, Bang grew 6%. In other words, Celsius is still growing even as the energy drink market gets more crowded.
The expansion of Celsius' fledgling international business could also offset the slower growth of its North American business. It recently signed a new distribution deal with the Japanese beverage giant Suntory to sell its drinks in the U.K., Ireland, and Canada, and its domestic partnership with PepsiCo could eventually evolve into an international one. It's also selling a lot more products on Amazon, which contributed 10% to its second-quarter sales.
PepsiCo's recent inventory reductions also don't necessarily mean the domestic market's demand for Celsius drinks is drying up. It's fairly common for a distribution partner to reduce its inventories of a new drink as a deal matures, and Nielsen's latest data indicates Celsius' U.S. sales are still increasing despite the inventory reductions. It also wouldn't make sense for PepsiCo to intentionally throttle Celsius' growth when it already owns an 8.5% stake in the company.
3. Celsius' margins are still expanding
If Celsius were in trouble, we would have seen its gross and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins shrivel. But this is what actually happened over the past four and half years:
For 2024, analysts expect Celsius' adjusted EBITDA to rise 11% and lift its adjusted EBITDA margin to 29.5%. From 2024 to 2026, they expect its adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 12%. That rosy outlook implies that economies of scale are kicking in.
4. Celsius stock looks reasonably valued
With an enterprise value of $9 billion, Celsius is valued at 6 times this year's sales and 25 times its adjusted EBITDA. Those valuations are reasonable relative to its growth rates and its industry peers. Monster, which is growing at a much slower rate, trades at 6 times this year's sales and 20 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Celsius might not be a hypergrowth stock anymore, but it still has plenty of upside potential. Its stock price could remain volatile, but it should stabilize and rally back toward its all-time high as the company overcomes its near-term challenges.
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Celsius Holdings - >>> 4 Reasons to Buy Celsius Stock Like There's No Tomorrow
by Leo Sun
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-reasons-buy-celsius-stock-092000173.html
Celsius' (NASDAQ: CELH) stock is down nearly 60% since it hit its record high this March. The energy drink maker's stock fizzled out as investors fretted over its slowing sales growth, declining domestic market share, and some big inventory reductions at its distribution partner PepsiCo. It also struggled to maintain its high valuations in a high interest rate environment.
Nevertheless, now could be the right time to buy Celsius' stock. There are four simple reasons why.
1. Celsius is still one of the fastest-growing beverage makers
Celsius carved out a niche by selling sugar-free energy drinks made from all-natural ingredients like green tea, ginger, and taurine. That strategy attracted a lot of attention from younger health-conscious consumers, and Celsius' annual revenue more than doubled in each of the past three years.
That's why the bulls were disappointed when Celsius' revenue only rose 29% year over year in the first half of 2024. However, that slowdown wasn't too surprising because fully lapped its new domestic distribution deal with PepsiCo, which started in August 2022 and significantly boosted its sales throughout 2022 and 2023.
Analysts expect its revenue to only rise 19% this year, but they expect it to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2024 to 2026. That would still make it one of the fastest-growing beverage makers in the world. Its larger competitor, Monster Beverage, is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2023 to 2026.
2. Celsius' near-term headwinds aren't that severe
On May 28, Nielsen reported that Celsius' U.S. market share had dipped 30 basis points on a weekly basis to 10.5%. By the week ending on Aug. 10, its share had slipped to 9.6%. That ongoing decline might seem like a red flag since Celsius still generated 95% of its revenue from North America in the first half of 2024.
However, Nielsen's latest data showed that Celsius actually grew faster year over year than all of its domestic competitors in the four weeks leading up to Aug. 10. Celsius' sales rose 8.8% year over year, which outpaced Red Bull's 1.8% growth and Monster's 3.5% decline (excluding its acquisition of Bang energy drinks from Vital Pharmaceuticals last year). On its own, Bang grew 6%. In other words, Celsius is still growing even as the energy drink market gets more crowded.
The expansion of Celsius' fledgling international business could also offset the slower growth of its North American business. It recently signed a new distribution deal with the Japanese beverage giant Suntory to sell its drinks in the U.K., Ireland, and Canada, and its domestic partnership with PepsiCo could eventually evolve into an international one. It's also selling a lot more products on Amazon, which contributed 10% to its second-quarter sales.
PepsiCo's recent inventory reductions also don't necessarily mean the domestic market's demand for Celsius drinks is drying up. It's fairly common for a distribution partner to reduce its inventories of a new drink as a deal matures, and Nielsen's latest data indicates Celsius' U.S. sales are still increasing despite the inventory reductions. It also wouldn't make sense for PepsiCo to intentionally throttle Celsius' growth when it already owns an 8.5% stake in the company.
3. Celsius' margins are still expanding
If Celsius were in trouble, we would have seen its gross and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins shrivel. But this is what actually happened over the past four and half years:
For 2024, analysts expect Celsius' adjusted EBITDA to rise 11% and lift its adjusted EBITDA margin to 29.5%. From 2024 to 2026, they expect its adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 12%. That rosy outlook implies that economies of scale are kicking in.
4. Celsius stock looks reasonably valued
With an enterprise value of $9 billion, Celsius is valued at 6 times this year's sales and 25 times its adjusted EBITDA. Those valuations are reasonable relative to its growth rates and its industry peers. Monster, which is growing at a much slower rate, trades at 6 times this year's sales and 20 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Celsius might not be a hypergrowth stock anymore, but it still has plenty of upside potential. Its stock price could remain volatile, but it should stabilize and rally back toward its all-time high as the company overcomes its near-term challenges.
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Celsius Holdings - >>> 4 Reasons to Buy Celsius Stock Like There's No Tomorrow
by Leo Sun
Motley Fool
Aug 27, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-reasons-buy-celsius-stock-092000173.html
Celsius' (NASDAQ: CELH) stock is down nearly 60% since it hit its record high this March. The energy drink maker's stock fizzled out as investors fretted over its slowing sales growth, declining domestic market share, and some big inventory reductions at its distribution partner PepsiCo. It also struggled to maintain its high valuations in a high interest rate environment.
Nevertheless, now could be the right time to buy Celsius' stock. There are four simple reasons why.
1. Celsius is still one of the fastest-growing beverage makers
Celsius carved out a niche by selling sugar-free energy drinks made from all-natural ingredients like green tea, ginger, and taurine. That strategy attracted a lot of attention from younger health-conscious consumers, and Celsius' annual revenue more than doubled in each of the past three years.
That's why the bulls were disappointed when Celsius' revenue only rose 29% year over year in the first half of 2024. However, that slowdown wasn't too surprising because fully lapped its new domestic distribution deal with PepsiCo, which started in August 2022 and significantly boosted its sales throughout 2022 and 2023.
Analysts expect its revenue to only rise 19% this year, but they expect it to continue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% from 2024 to 2026. That would still make it one of the fastest-growing beverage makers in the world. Its larger competitor, Monster Beverage, is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2023 to 2026.
2. Celsius' near-term headwinds aren't that severe
On May 28, Nielsen reported that Celsius' U.S. market share had dipped 30 basis points on a weekly basis to 10.5%. By the week ending on Aug. 10, its share had slipped to 9.6%. That ongoing decline might seem like a red flag since Celsius still generated 95% of its revenue from North America in the first half of 2024.
However, Nielsen's latest data showed that Celsius actually grew faster year over year than all of its domestic competitors in the four weeks leading up to Aug. 10. Celsius' sales rose 8.8% year over year, which outpaced Red Bull's 1.8% growth and Monster's 3.5% decline (excluding its acquisition of Bang energy drinks from Vital Pharmaceuticals last year). On its own, Bang grew 6%. In other words, Celsius is still growing even as the energy drink market gets more crowded.
The expansion of Celsius' fledgling international business could also offset the slower growth of its North American business. It recently signed a new distribution deal with the Japanese beverage giant Suntory to sell its drinks in the U.K., Ireland, and Canada, and its domestic partnership with PepsiCo could eventually evolve into an international one. It's also selling a lot more products on Amazon, which contributed 10% to its second-quarter sales.
PepsiCo's recent inventory reductions also don't necessarily mean the domestic market's demand for Celsius drinks is drying up. It's fairly common for a distribution partner to reduce its inventories of a new drink as a deal matures, and Nielsen's latest data indicates Celsius' U.S. sales are still increasing despite the inventory reductions. It also wouldn't make sense for PepsiCo to intentionally throttle Celsius' growth when it already owns an 8.5% stake in the company.
3. Celsius' margins are still expanding
If Celsius were in trouble, we would have seen its gross and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins shrivel. But this is what actually happened over the past four and half years:
For 2024, analysts expect Celsius' adjusted EBITDA to rise 11% and lift its adjusted EBITDA margin to 29.5%. From 2024 to 2026, they expect its adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 12%. That rosy outlook implies that economies of scale are kicking in.
4. Celsius stock looks reasonably valued
With an enterprise value of $9 billion, Celsius is valued at 6 times this year's sales and 25 times its adjusted EBITDA. Those valuations are reasonable relative to its growth rates and its industry peers. Monster, which is growing at a much slower rate, trades at 6 times this year's sales and 20 times its adjusted EBITDA.
Celsius might not be a hypergrowth stock anymore, but it still has plenty of upside potential. Its stock price could remain volatile, but it should stabilize and rally back toward its all-time high as the company overcomes its near-term challenges.
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Bigworld, >> parabolic move <<
Gold is up ~ 25% this year, so not too shabby. But it took 12 years to finally break out from the extended Cup + Handle pattern that had formed since 2012. Btw, a general rule with Cup + Handles is to expect the upside after the breakout to equal the depth of the Cup. The bottom of the Cup was 1000, the breakout level was 2000, so that differential of 1000 means the breakout will reach 3000. Everyone on Wall St has these same chart rules and expectations, so they tend to become self-fulfilling.
But the upside for gold could be far higher as the 'Debt Bomb' approaches. At some point the out of control US debt will cause a global loss of confidence in the dollar system. The move away from the US dollar has already begun, but I'm guessing things get really serious by the $50 tril level. So probably 4-5 years (?) Tough to say, but the clock is ticking, so moving more into hard assets seems like a logical strategy. Bonds will be especially vulnerable in a dollar crisis.
I figure if the CBDC rollout runs into serious opposition, the banksters can present the CBDC as the solution to the dollar crisis. They want the CBDC either way, for the control aspects, but it actually would make imposing 'capital controls' much easier, to prevent money from fleeing the country. But that only helps domestically, and the mass exodus out of the dollar by other countries will be the big problem.
Somehow they have to derail the BRICs juggernaut, without sending us into WW 3. Blocking Saudi Arabia and Argentina from joining BRICS was a start.
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Carbon capture - >>> Warren Buffett's Quiet Power Move: Why He's Betting $35 Billion On A 'Yet To Be Proven' Renewable Energy Solution
Benzinga
by Claire Shefchik
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-quiet-power-move-154518849.html
Warren Buffett is at it again, and the financial world is buzzing. He's investing $35 billion into a renewable energy initiative that's still “yet to be proven.” What's surprising is that the famously cautious investor is doubling down on fossil fuels at the same time.
We're not talking pennies here. Chevron is one of the biggest holdings in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio – almost $19.1 billion. Buffett made his move during the 2020 energy downturn. Although he trimmed his position slightly this year, he remains heavily invested. Chevron's not buying the "fossil fuels are fading" narrative. They've cranked up oil and gas production by 12% and are diving into major projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel.
But hold on, there's more. Buffett's got his eye on Occidental Petroleum too. His stake? Close to $15.7 billion. He's been gobbling up shares like they're going out of style. He's even stated that Occidental is one of the few stocks Berkshire would consider holding indefinitely. Under CEO Vicki Hollub, Occidental's making moves, like a $12 billion deal to acquire Crownrock, another oil and gas player.
So, why's Buffett all in on fossil fuels when everyone else is running the other way? It's all about Carbon capture technology. Both Chevron and Occidental are investing heavily in this area. Hollub has even suggested that if carbon capture proves successful, “there’s no reason not to produce oil and gas forever.”
Buffett acknowledges the risk, stating that the “economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven." However, Buffett has made risky bets before, and they've often paid off. He's betting that Chevron and Occidental's investments in carbon capture will sustain the oil and gas industry, even as the world shifts toward renewables.
Buffett isn't just focused on short-term gains; he's looking at the long-term potential, particularly with carbon capture technology. If successful, this could transform the industry, making fossil fuels cleaner and more sustainable. That's why he's willing to put so much on the line. Buffett has seen industries change before, and he's positioning himself to be ahead of the curve once again.
In a world where many are following the crowd, Buffett is doing what he does best: going against the grain. Will this gamble pay off? Only time will tell. But if history is any guide, the “Oracle of Omaha” might just be onto something big again.
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Carbon capture - >>> Warren Buffett's Quiet Power Move: Why He's Betting $35 Billion On A 'Yet To Be Proven' Renewable Energy Solution
Benzinga
by Claire Shefchik
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-quiet-power-move-154518849.html
Warren Buffett is at it again, and the financial world is buzzing. He's investing $35 billion into a renewable energy initiative that's still “yet to be proven.” What's surprising is that the famously cautious investor is doubling down on fossil fuels at the same time.
We're not talking pennies here. Chevron is one of the biggest holdings in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio – almost $19.1 billion. Buffett made his move during the 2020 energy downturn. Although he trimmed his position slightly this year, he remains heavily invested. Chevron's not buying the "fossil fuels are fading" narrative. They've cranked up oil and gas production by 12% and are diving into major projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel.
But hold on, there's more. Buffett's got his eye on Occidental Petroleum too. His stake? Close to $15.7 billion. He's been gobbling up shares like they're going out of style. He's even stated that Occidental is one of the few stocks Berkshire would consider holding indefinitely. Under CEO Vicki Hollub, Occidental's making moves, like a $12 billion deal to acquire Crownrock, another oil and gas player.
So, why's Buffett all in on fossil fuels when everyone else is running the other way? It's all about Carbon capture technology. Both Chevron and Occidental are investing heavily in this area. Hollub has even suggested that if carbon capture proves successful, “there’s no reason not to produce oil and gas forever.”
Buffett acknowledges the risk, stating that the “economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven." However, Buffett has made risky bets before, and they've often paid off. He's betting that Chevron and Occidental's investments in carbon capture will sustain the oil and gas industry, even as the world shifts toward renewables.
Buffett isn't just focused on short-term gains; he's looking at the long-term potential, particularly with carbon capture technology. If successful, this could transform the industry, making fossil fuels cleaner and more sustainable. That's why he's willing to put so much on the line. Buffett has seen industries change before, and he's positioning himself to be ahead of the curve once again.
In a world where many are following the crowd, Buffett is doing what he does best: going against the grain. Will this gamble pay off? Only time will tell. But if history is any guide, the “Oracle of Omaha” might just be onto something big again.
<<<
---
Carbon capture - >>> Warren Buffett's Quiet Power Move: Why He's Betting $35 Billion On A 'Yet To Be Proven' Renewable Energy Solution
Benzinga
by Claire Shefchik
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-quiet-power-move-154518849.html
Warren Buffett is at it again, and the financial world is buzzing. He's investing $35 billion into a renewable energy initiative that's still “yet to be proven.” What's surprising is that the famously cautious investor is doubling down on fossil fuels at the same time.
We're not talking pennies here. Chevron is one of the biggest holdings in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio – almost $19.1 billion. Buffett made his move during the 2020 energy downturn. Although he trimmed his position slightly this year, he remains heavily invested. Chevron's not buying the "fossil fuels are fading" narrative. They've cranked up oil and gas production by 12% and are diving into major projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Israel.
But hold on, there's more. Buffett's got his eye on Occidental Petroleum too. His stake? Close to $15.7 billion. He's been gobbling up shares like they're going out of style. He's even stated that Occidental is one of the few stocks Berkshire would consider holding indefinitely. Under CEO Vicki Hollub, Occidental's making moves, like a $12 billion deal to acquire Crownrock, another oil and gas player.
So, why's Buffett all in on fossil fuels when everyone else is running the other way? It's all about Carbon capture technology. Both Chevron and Occidental are investing heavily in this area. Hollub has even suggested that if carbon capture proves successful, “there’s no reason not to produce oil and gas forever.”
Buffett acknowledges the risk, stating that the “economic feasibility of this technique has yet to be proven." However, Buffett has made risky bets before, and they've often paid off. He's betting that Chevron and Occidental's investments in carbon capture will sustain the oil and gas industry, even as the world shifts toward renewables.
Buffett isn't just focused on short-term gains; he's looking at the long-term potential, particularly with carbon capture technology. If successful, this could transform the industry, making fossil fuels cleaner and more sustainable. That's why he's willing to put so much on the line. Buffett has seen industries change before, and he's positioning himself to be ahead of the curve once again.
In a world where many are following the crowd, Buffett is doing what he does best: going against the grain. Will this gamble pay off? Only time will tell. But if history is any guide, the “Oracle of Omaha” might just be onto something big again.
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>>> Why gold is outperforming nearly everything so far this year
Yahoo Finance
by Jared Blikre
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-is-outperforming-nearly-everything-so-far-this-year-100022695.html
Gold futures have been surfing record highs, with Monday's prices hitting $2,555.2 per ounce, sending the value of a 400 troy ounce gold bar to $1,022,080.
The yellow metal has forged meteoric gains this year, emerging as the world's second-best-performing asset next to crypto. Its 23% year-to-date gain edges out the megacap-loaded Nasdaq Composite — itself up a healthy 18%. (A proxy for the crypto market writ large, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), is up 47% this year.)
According to BofA Global Research, gold funds just absorbed the largest inflows in four weeks, attracting $1.1 billion. Yet, the broader trend has actually seen $2.5 billion in outflows year to date, suggesting that underlying strength is coming from outside traditional fund flows.
Central banks — especially those of developing countries — have been buying the barbarous relic at a record clip. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased 290 tonnes in the first quarter alone, beating out the prior Q1 record from 2023 and setting CBs on a path to record gold purchases in 2024 that are estimated to easily eclipse 1,000 tonnes.
"Not only is the long-standing trend in central bank gold buying firmly intact, it also continues to be dominated by banks from emerging markets," wrote the Gold Council.
In that regard, Turkey tops the buy list this year with 30 tonnes purchased in the first quarter — lifting its gold reserves to 570 tonnes. China bought 27 tonnes in Q1, making it the 17th consecutive quarter of purchases and also bringing its holdings to 2,262 tonnes. Other notable purchasers include India, Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Oman, and Singapore.
The central bank buying spree has solidified gold's status as a reserve asset. According to BofA, gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset second only to the US dollar, representing 16% of the reserve pool.
The precious metal’s performance can be attributed to its unique position as a real asset with one of the lowest correlations to stocks across asset classes, making it a safe haven from market swings and inflation.
According to Tom Bruni, head of market research at StockTwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, "We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge."
Bruni also emphasized gold's appeal to traders due to its price action. "With gold breaking out above its 2011 highs, it's drawing significant attention from trend followers and technical analysts alike."
Investors looking for deep, liquid gold markets have a robust choice of futures markets, ETFs, and gold miner stocks and ETFs, which tend to be even more volatile than the underlying metal.
"The volatility in gold prices has made it a prime trading vehicle, whether through gold ETFs or mining stocks," said Bruni.
BofA separately highlighted how this latest gold rally isn't like the other advances this century, offering a tantalizing glimpse of future bullish potential.
The bank noted this is the third major gold advance in two decades, yet "households have missed this rally." The first two rallies — from 2004 to 2011, and from 2015 to 2020 — attracted big fund flows into gold ETFs. But over the last year, gold bullion and gold miner ETFs have shed $6.4 billion in assets, according to Bloomberg data and Yahoo Finance calculations.
But if last week's large gold inflows were to gain momentum, that trend could signal a perfect storm of retail, institutional, and central bank gold buying is brewing. Why?
Bruni said it best: “Gold is kind of one of these things that operates on vibes."
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>>> Why gold is outperforming nearly everything so far this year
Yahoo Finance
by Jared Blikre
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-is-outperforming-nearly-everything-so-far-this-year-100022695.html
Gold futures have been surfing record highs, with Monday's prices hitting $2,555.2 per ounce, sending the value of a 400 troy ounce gold bar to $1,022,080.
The yellow metal has forged meteoric gains this year, emerging as the world's second-best-performing asset next to crypto. Its 23% year-to-date gain edges out the megacap-loaded Nasdaq Composite — itself up a healthy 18%. (A proxy for the crypto market writ large, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), is up 47% this year.)
According to BofA Global Research, gold funds just absorbed the largest inflows in four weeks, attracting $1.1 billion. Yet, the broader trend has actually seen $2.5 billion in outflows year to date, suggesting that underlying strength is coming from outside traditional fund flows.
Central banks — especially those of developing countries — have been buying the barbarous relic at a record clip. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased 290 tonnes in the first quarter alone, beating out the prior Q1 record from 2023 and setting CBs on a path to record gold purchases in 2024 that are estimated to easily eclipse 1,000 tonnes.
"Not only is the long-standing trend in central bank gold buying firmly intact, it also continues to be dominated by banks from emerging markets," wrote the Gold Council.
In that regard, Turkey tops the buy list this year with 30 tonnes purchased in the first quarter — lifting its gold reserves to 570 tonnes. China bought 27 tonnes in Q1, making it the 17th consecutive quarter of purchases and also bringing its holdings to 2,262 tonnes. Other notable purchasers include India, Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Oman, and Singapore.
The central bank buying spree has solidified gold's status as a reserve asset. According to BofA, gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset second only to the US dollar, representing 16% of the reserve pool.
The precious metal’s performance can be attributed to its unique position as a real asset with one of the lowest correlations to stocks across asset classes, making it a safe haven from market swings and inflation.
According to Tom Bruni, head of market research at StockTwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, "We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge."
Bruni also emphasized gold's appeal to traders due to its price action. "With gold breaking out above its 2011 highs, it's drawing significant attention from trend followers and technical analysts alike."
Investors looking for deep, liquid gold markets have a robust choice of futures markets, ETFs, and gold miner stocks and ETFs, which tend to be even more volatile than the underlying metal.
"The volatility in gold prices has made it a prime trading vehicle, whether through gold ETFs or mining stocks," said Bruni.
BofA separately highlighted how this latest gold rally isn't like the other advances this century, offering a tantalizing glimpse of future bullish potential.
The bank noted this is the third major gold advance in two decades, yet "households have missed this rally." The first two rallies — from 2004 to 2011, and from 2015 to 2020 — attracted big fund flows into gold ETFs. But over the last year, gold bullion and gold miner ETFs have shed $6.4 billion in assets, according to Bloomberg data and Yahoo Finance calculations.
But if last week's large gold inflows were to gain momentum, that trend could signal a perfect storm of retail, institutional, and central bank gold buying is brewing. Why?
Bruni said it best: “Gold is kind of one of these things that operates on vibes."
<<<
---
>>> Why gold is outperforming nearly everything so far this year
Yahoo Finance
by Jared Blikre
Aug 28, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-is-outperforming-nearly-everything-so-far-this-year-100022695.html
Gold futures have been surfing record highs, with Monday's prices hitting $2,555.2 per ounce, sending the value of a 400 troy ounce gold bar to $1,022,080.
The yellow metal has forged meteoric gains this year, emerging as the world's second-best-performing asset next to crypto. Its 23% year-to-date gain edges out the megacap-loaded Nasdaq Composite — itself up a healthy 18%. (A proxy for the crypto market writ large, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), is up 47% this year.)
According to BofA Global Research, gold funds just absorbed the largest inflows in four weeks, attracting $1.1 billion. Yet, the broader trend has actually seen $2.5 billion in outflows year to date, suggesting that underlying strength is coming from outside traditional fund flows.
Central banks — especially those of developing countries — have been buying the barbarous relic at a record clip. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased 290 tonnes in the first quarter alone, beating out the prior Q1 record from 2023 and setting CBs on a path to record gold purchases in 2024 that are estimated to easily eclipse 1,000 tonnes.
"Not only is the long-standing trend in central bank gold buying firmly intact, it also continues to be dominated by banks from emerging markets," wrote the Gold Council.
In that regard, Turkey tops the buy list this year with 30 tonnes purchased in the first quarter — lifting its gold reserves to 570 tonnes. China bought 27 tonnes in Q1, making it the 17th consecutive quarter of purchases and also bringing its holdings to 2,262 tonnes. Other notable purchasers include India, Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Oman, and Singapore.
The central bank buying spree has solidified gold's status as a reserve asset. According to BofA, gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset second only to the US dollar, representing 16% of the reserve pool.
The precious metal’s performance can be attributed to its unique position as a real asset with one of the lowest correlations to stocks across asset classes, making it a safe haven from market swings and inflation.
According to Tom Bruni, head of market research at StockTwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, "We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge."
Bruni also emphasized gold's appeal to traders due to its price action. "With gold breaking out above its 2011 highs, it's drawing significant attention from trend followers and technical analysts alike."
Investors looking for deep, liquid gold markets have a robust choice of futures markets, ETFs, and gold miner stocks and ETFs, which tend to be even more volatile than the underlying metal.
"The volatility in gold prices has made it a prime trading vehicle, whether through gold ETFs or mining stocks," said Bruni.
BofA separately highlighted how this latest gold rally isn't like the other advances this century, offering a tantalizing glimpse of future bullish potential.
The bank noted this is the third major gold advance in two decades, yet "households have missed this rally." The first two rallies — from 2004 to 2011, and from 2015 to 2020 — attracted big fund flows into gold ETFs. But over the last year, gold bullion and gold miner ETFs have shed $6.4 billion in assets, according to Bloomberg data and Yahoo Finance calculations.
But if last week's large gold inflows were to gain momentum, that trend could signal a perfect storm of retail, institutional, and central bank gold buying is brewing. Why?
Bruni said it best: “Gold is kind of one of these things that operates on vibes."
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>>> ‘I have been researching death for 30 years. I am now convinced it is reversible’
The Telegraph
by Charlotte Lytton
August 27, 2024
https://news.yahoo.com/news/heart-attack-tomorrow-why-stay-123000190.html
Cancer, heart disease, diabetes… name most major conditions, and treatment today has changed radically from decades past. Except for one: death.
But, according to Sam Parnia, associate professor of medicine at New York University’s Langone Medical Center, “what we believe about death is fundamentally wrong”. It is not the end, he says, but a “reversible state”.
Parnia’s 30 years of research into where life ends and death begins have made him a leading resurrectionist, with a fundamental desire to change how we view both. He outlines his discoveries in Lucid Dying, to be published on Thursday: a book that charts compelling evidence that reviving the dead isn’t as difficult as we might think, and his research into what happens when consciousness ebbs away.
Parnia, who is British and trained at Guy’s and St Thomas’ in London, has come to see a flatline on an ECG (electrocardiogram) as meaningless. “You can reverse death, and it’s not just a wish, it’s the reality,” the 52 year-old says. “People used to think you could never go beyond the boundaries of [flying], let alone going beyond the atmosphere of the Earth. And if you always believed that, then you’d never try.”
Death, he adds, is suffering from terrible PR. “If we remove that social label that makes us think everything stops, and look at it objectively, it’s basically an injury process” – one that, he believes, can be treated.
Research produced in the past five years has made it clear that our idea of dying is “simply a social convention that does not conform with scientific realities”. This “new frontier of science”, as Parnia terms it, feels at least a little revolutionary, fundamentally challenging one of life’s two certainties (taxes sadly seem less prone to reversal). But he remains frustrated that existing theories about death, which are “either outdated and frankly wrong, or at best inadequate and inaccurate”, persist given the research and tools now at our disposal.
In 2012, resuscitation rates following cardiac arrests at his hospital in New York were 33 per cent (compared to a US average of 16 per cent); he believes his team are the only ones in the world to be giving patients cocktails of drugs similar to those proven to successfully preserve pig organs following CPR, which have “significantly improved survival”.
Parnia, who has an eponymous research lab at NYU Langone, says brains remain “salvageable for not only hours, but possibly days of time”. In one case, brain cells were found to retain full function 48 hours after being removed from a person’s body – in spite of the ice being used to preserve the organ melting due to a delayed DHL delivery. “So that’s a whole game-changer.”
In recent years, such discoveries have come thick and fast. Parnia cites Yale University’s 2019 study detailing how decapitated pig brains had been revived for up to 14 hours post-mortem as among the most compelling pieces of proof for the same being done in humans (the research was labelled “Frankenstein-style” the year prior to publication). Another study published by Yale in 2022 demonstrated how a modified heart and lung machine combined with a series of drugs could restore organs in pigs. “It is just a matter of time” before those same results transcend the pig-person barrier, Parnia thinks.
While the promise to reverse death would be compelling at any point, our current obsession with thwarting time is insatiable; there are supplements and tinctures filling health store shelves and social media feeds; and record-breaking podcasts making stars of their DNA-defying supremos. Last month, excitement ramped up anew when news of Tomorrow Bio, Europe’s first cryonics startup, circulated, with its deep-freeze services going for £170,000 a pop.
Cryonics has yet to prove that it is capable of returning people to life (Parnia calls it “wishful thinking”), though “the idea that cooling the body is highly protective is true”. He points to the case of a British woman who developed hypothermia while hiking in Spain in 2019, whose heart stopped for six hours while rescue teams tried to locate her. “That’s way past what we consider dead for humans,” Parnia says. Yet after being flown to a specialist centre with an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machine (ECMO, which takes on the function of the heart and lungs when the body is unable to do so), she was revived. “She was lucky they had [ECMO]. They did it, they didn’t give up on her. If they had taken her to another place, she would have been declared dead.” (In another similar case, a woman was brought back to life seven hours after being found in the cold in a park.)
Back from the dead
These are reported as exceptional cases, but Parnia says they needn’t be. For the most part, CPR, which was introduced in 1959, remains our sole revival method – in spite of the fact it has a 10 per cent success rate, and many hospitals have ECMO machines. “Why do it with something that’s so inferior, which either doesn’t work properly or it ends up bringing people back but leaves them with brain damage?” Parnia rails. “It doesn’t make sense.”
Still, it is not only the will that is holding medical professionals back from mounting a full-time resurrection mission. With hospitals overstretched – NHS waiting lists hit a record high in August, rising for the fifth consecutive month – the likelihood of departments having the resources and staff to keep at patients’ bedsides 24/7 feels perhaps more far flung than the idea of people returning from the dead in the first place.
But Parnia is convinced it is possible, the fact he is part-way through an intensive care shift when we speak is doing nothing to dilute his fervour. Though his fascination with the subject began in 1994, when a man he had been chatting with an hour earlier suddenly flatlined in the hospital where he was working, the pursuit has only recently begun to feel personal.
Giving up too soon?
He notes that his age and gender makes him a prime heart attack risk, “so I tell everyone, look, I’m going to have a cardiac arrest soon. And I’m appalled at the treatment I’m going to get... It’s atrocious what we have to go through when [interventions] are possible,” he says. “If I have a heart attack and die tomorrow, why should I stay dead? That’s not necessary anymore.”
Parnia doesn’t believe everyone who dies needs to be brought back – someone with multiple organ failure is obviously an unsuitable candidate for life-extension. But of the many “heartbreaking” cases of people who die while in otherwise good health (Parnia cites a young mother stabbed to death in a Sydney mall attack earlier this year, or those killed in war), we are giving up too soon. “You just need someone to go to the operating room, find where the laceration was, stitch it together, and put blood back into your body again,” he says. Those who die while “otherwise young, who are otherwise healthy – those people are all potentially salvageable”.
To Parnia, these ideas aren’t ghoulish, but “hopeful, astonishing and life-affirming”. Just as bringing people back via CPR would have been considered the stuff of fantasy 100 years ago, “I have little doubt that, in the future, people who would be declared dead today will be routinely brought back to life.” He acknowledges that major shifts of this kind are unlikely to have fully taken hold by the time his own death comes, but he remains optimistic, he says. “As I look forward, I am excited to think about what will be discovered.”
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Bigworld, >> energy. precious metals, water and electric utilities <<
I have some in the Water sector ETFs --> FIW, PHO, and several water related stocks --> BMI, FELE, ROP, WTS. The Energy and Utility sectors I'm real light on though, only OXY and NEE as of now. I have things spread across most other sectors though (link below), and the S+P 500 index ETF. I figure the allocation % in stocks is more important than the actual picks, but have tried to find the best stocks / sectors based on their long term steadiness and trajectory (the 10-15 year charts). I got a little carried away, but each position is relatively small.
Part of the rationale for having so many stocks is to make it too cumbersome to sell, so it encourages long term buy / hold. I figure the S+P 500 portion can be adjusted when necessary. So a total stock allocation range of 15-30%. with individual stocks at 15%, and the S+P 500 index at 0-15% depending on market conditions. It's a plan anyway. As a nervous nellie, i figure having a structured allocation model should help. Worst case I'll have to sit through a crash or bear market with 15% in stocks, but there are always the short ETFs to hedge with if needed. I'd probably use the 1X (SH) to reduce the blow, but only if absolutely necessary.
Stock List -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Great-Stocks-37555
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Bigworld, The stock market has been heavily dependent upon the AI narrative for some time, no doubt about it. The whole AI thing does seem like a bubble, and it's risky having the entire market so dependent on one stock. Also lots of geopolitical risks right now - Middle East, Ukraine, plus the US election, etc.
Fwiw, I'm still working on a long term allocation strategy. On the one hand is the need to have some percentage allocated to stocks, so the question is how much? There are only so many allocation categories -- stocks, bonds, cash, hard assets.
With the debt bomb approaching (3-5 years?), I figure the hard asset side will increasingly be the place to be. For now I'm figuring 10-15% as the minimum allocation for stocks, with a max of 25-30%. Either way it's pretty conservative. The bond side I plan to start transitioning out of over the next 3 - 4 years.
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>>> Rickards Issues Avalanche Warning
By James Rickards
August 26, 2024
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-issues-avalanche-warning/
Remember the Aug. 5 mini-crash? Well, investors apparently don’t. It seems like a distant memory at this point, as the “buy the dip” theme is a deeply entrenched force in today’s market.
Well, I’m afraid that this Wednesday, Aug. 28, they’re about to get a stark reminder. Only this time, it’ll be far worse. Today, I’ll show you why.
First off, why are stocks going up? The simple answer is that the market’s in a bubble. There are a couple of things to consider…
The S&P 500 is really the S&P Four, meaning it’s a cap-weighted index. That means that the impact of a stock’s price on the index is a function of its market capitalization. The bigger its market cap, the greater its impact on the index.
Right now, the top 10 stocks in the S&P account for about 30% of the index.
And it’s just a small handful of stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google (Alphabet) and a couple of others that account for most of the market’s gains this year.
If you actually take the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 (503 to be precise), more of them are down this year than are up. So when you say the S&P is up 18% on the year, it presents a very distorted picture.
The Nvidia Bubble
Nvidia has been the market’s leading performer, partly because of the latest market fad concerning artificial intelligence (AI) and GPT (generative pre-trained transformers).
The AI boom has created hand-over-fist demand for Nvidia’s chips.
But do the people buying these stocks actually know what GPT is? No, most don’t. But they don’t want to miss the Nvidia gravy train.
People buy into the hype because they don’t want to miss out on the next big thing. And so they buy the stock. That drives the stock higher, which attracts more buyers, which drives the price even higher, which attracts even more buyers.
t’s a positive feedback loop. We’re now in that feedback loop. It’s amplified by institutional investors. Large index funds like Vanguard, State Street, Fidelity and some others have loaded up on Nvidia stock.
What happens when they buy Nvidia? The stock price goes up. Then what happens? They buy more Nvidia stock because it has an even larger place in the index.
So it’s a process that feeds on itself. And it can go on for a long time. That’s how bubbles form.
How All Bubbles End
How does it end? Well, it ends with a crash eventually. The music can’t keep playing forever. The question then becomes when exactly is the music going to stop playing?
It can be a difficult question to answer. You know it’s a bubble, even if you don’t know when it’ll pop. You know it will, but you usually don’t know the specific catalyst that will set the crash in motion. Often, the catalyst is only obvious in retrospect.
The first factor to consider about Nvidia is that its valuation is absolutely sky-high. It has a P/E ratio of 75, which means investors are willing to pay $75 for each dollar of earnings.
But here’s something most investors don’t know: Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang and its CFO have been selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Nvidia shares. In fact, they just hit a record of shares sold.
Now, I’ve been general counsel for some very large companies. Insider selling like this isn’t a sign of any problem by itself. A lot of times, the way executive compensation is structured means they end up selling shares on a set schedule.
But when I looked into it, I noticed some other strange coincidences that made me dig in more. And I believe there’s a good reason these insiders are selling their shares. And I found five major reasons why I believe Nvidia stock is about to get hammered in two days.
Peak Nvidia?
Yes, Nvidia chips have been in high demand, which has helped fuel the Nvidia boom. But I’ve uncovered a lot of evidence that demand for Nvidia chips has peaked.
Not only has demand peaked, but I believe it’s actually shifting to other chipmakers. Increasingly, these AI chips are being designed in house at companies like Google and Amazon through partnerships with other companies. This lets them train AI models more cheaply.
Another issue with Nvidia chips is that they’re often too powerful for the different AI uses that these companies need.
It’s like using a cannon when you only need a rifle. It’s simply overkill.
Meanwhile, Nivida’s chips are very expensive, and they require a lot of energy which also costs a lot. So by shifting to building their own in-house chips, these big tech companies are reducing their costs, and becoming independent of Nvidia.
But Nvidia stock is basically “priced for perfection.” The problem is when people expect perfection, anything less than perfect is bad news. And I believe Nvidia investors are about to get some really bad news two days from now.
What’s the big deal? Well, it could trigger a massive market chain reaction, potentially leading to losses of 30%, 50% and even 80% among some of the biggest tech stocks that have been driving the market.
If it happens, the major stock market indexes are going to get clobbered. It won’t be the end of the world, I want to be clear about that. But the market could take a long time to recover.
Which Snowflake Will Trigger the Avalanche?
I’ve often compared the causes of market crashes to snowflakes that can trigger an avalanche. A massive amount of snow can accumulate before that one final snowflake comes along to start the chain reaction.
The way to think about it is that the triggering snowflake might not look much different from the harmless snowflake that preceded it. It’s just that it hit the system at the wrong time, at the wrong place.
There’s a lot of snow built up on this mountain. Nvidia could potentially be the snowflake that triggers an avalanche.
I’m not telling you to panic, but I do want you to be prepared for a possible avalanche. If it doesn’t happen, that’s great, you can get on the ski lift and take another run down the mountain.
But if an avalanche does occur, you’ll sure be glad you avoided it.
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Bigworld, Thanks for the latest from Rinear and Kunstler. The world sure does seem messed up these days. The idea of relocating to a deserted island seems more and more appealing. A while ago Ozzy Osborne left the US, saying it had become too crazy here. That says something when even the loonies are leaving. Even after the election, I don't see the 'loony meter' coming down very much. The US / world likely continue descending into the Twilight Zone.
>>> Tiny shards of plastic are increasingly infiltrating our brains, study says
Human brain samples collected at autopsy in early 2024 contained more tiny shards of plastic than samples collected eight years prior, according to a preprint posted online in May. A preprint is a study which has not yet been peer-reviewed and published in a journal.
“The concentrations we saw in the brain tissue of normal individuals, who had an average age of around 45 or 50 years old, were 4,800 micrograms per gram, or 0.5% by weight,” said lead study author Matthew Campen, a regents’ professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque.
“Compared to autopsy brain samples from 2016, that’s about 50% higher,” Campen said. “That would mean that our brains today are 99.5% brain and the rest is plastic.”
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