Precious Metals

[gfp927z]

Basel III - >>> Gold Goes Full Reserve Asset As Basel III Elevates It To Tier 1 Status


Forbes

by Frank Holmes

May 13, 2025


https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/05/12/gold-goes-full-reserve-asset-as-basel-iii-elevates-it-to-tier-1-status/


For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.

As of July 1, 2025, gold will officially be classified as a Tier 1, high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) under the Basel III banking regulations. That means U.S. banks can count physical gold, at 100% of its market value, toward their core capital reserves. No longer will it be marked down by 50% as a “Tier 3” asset, as it was under the old rules.

This is a huge shift in how regulators perceive gold, and it’s a long-overdue recognition of what many of us have known for decades: Gold is money. And it’s the kind of money you want to own when the world is on fire.

Central Banks Know That Gold Is Real Money. Shouldn’t You?

Obviously, I’m not the only one who believes this. Central banks have been leading the charge for 15 years. In the first quarter of this year, central banks added 244 metric tons of gold to their official reserves, according to the World Gold Council. That’s 24% above the five-year quarterly average.

This isn’t a one-off anomaly. It’s part of a longer-term trend that began in earnest after the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated after gold’s reclassification under Basel III in 2019. According to the WGC, about 30% of central banks say they plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months—the highest level ever recorded in their survey.

Why are central banks buying gold? The same reason you or I would: to protect against currency debasement, geopolitical turmoil and runaway debt. As global fiat currencies get printed with increasing abandon, I believe the yellow metal remains one of the few truly finite, unprintable stores of value.

So, if the world’s central banks are moving into gold, shouldn’t retail investors be doing the same?

The answer, thankfully, is yes. According to Gallup’s latest polling data, nearly a quarter of U.S. adults now say gold is the best long-term investment—a sharp increase from last year, and well above the 16% who say stocks. Only real estate ranked higher.

This could be significant. For the first time in over a decade, Americans say they’re prioritizing gold over equities. Investors appear to be increasingly skeptical of the stock market’s near-term trajectory, and they’re returning to what has historically worked in times of uncertainty.

I’ve said for years that gold belongs in every diversified portfolio. Back in 2020, I told CNBC that I believed gold could hit $4,000 an ounce on looser monetary policy and central bank balance sheet expansion. Fast forward to today, and the metal is trading at $3,340.

Today I’d like to adjust my forecast.

With the implementation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, continued global uncertainty and rising central bank gold demand, I now believe gold could go as high as $6,000 an ounce over the medium- to long-term.

The Curious Case Of Gold Miners

But here’s where things get interesting—and puzzling. While gold prices continue to make new all-time highs, gold mining stocks have been seeing sustained outflows.

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which tracks many of the world’s largest publicly traded gold producers, has been bleeding capital for months. Even as gold prices surge, weekly fund flows have been negative, with investors pulling billions out of mining equities.

This disconnect is hard to ignore. It points to a deeper concern investors may have about the operational and financial health of mining companies. Unlike physical gold, which simply tracks the spot price, miners are exposed to cost inflation, labor shortages, geopolitical risk and more. These headwinds aren’t new, though, and they shouldn’t obscure the fundamental leverage that quality mining stocks offer in a rising gold environment.

Historically, gold stocks tend to lag the metal itself until higher prices are deemed sustainable. Institutional capital tends to wait for the “all clear” sign. That often means retail investors can front-run the rotation. If gold prices stay elevated—or go higher, as I expect—I believe we’ll see renewed flows into the mining space.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen investors increasingly favor physically backed gold ETFs and streaming/royalty companies as lower-risk ways to gain exposure. That’s understandable. These vehicles offer gold’s upside with fewer operational headaches.

Be The Bank

Basel III is more than a regulatory change. I believe it’s a validation. It affirms what many of us have long believed about gold’s status as a monetary asset and a hedge against chaos.

If the world’s most powerful financial institutions are increasing their gold exposure, and regulatory bodies are reclassifying it as a top-tier liquid asset, what’s holding the average investor back?

As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical gold (bars, coins, jewelry) and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and/or ETFs. Remember to rebalance on a regular basis.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Silver - >>> Samsung has developed a silver-based solid-state battery technology, primarily for electric vehicles (EVs), that promises significant advancements over lithium-ion batteries. These batteries feature a silver-carbon (Ag-C) composite anode and a solid-state electrolyte, offering higher energy density, longer lifespan, faster charging, and enhanced safety. Specifically, Samsung's solid-state batteries are projected to achieve a 600-mile range on a single charge, a 20-year lifespan, and a 9-minute charging time for an 80% charge.

Key Features and Benefits:

Higher Energy Density:
The solid-state design allows for a much higher energy density (500 Wh/kg) compared to current lithium-ion batteries (around 270 Wh/kg), enabling longer driving ranges in a smaller and lighter package.

Extended Lifespan:
Samsung's solid-state batteries are designed to last for 20 years, significantly longer than the typical lifespan of lithium-ion batteries.

Faster Charging:
The solid electrolyte enables faster charging speeds, with Samsung claiming a 9-minute charge time for 80% capacity.

Enhanced Safety:
Solid-state batteries eliminate the flammable liquid electrolytes found in traditional batteries, increasing safety and thermal stability.

Potential Impact on Silver Market:
The use of silver in the anode, particularly in the Ag-C composite, could lead to increased demand for silver, potentially impacting the market.

Current Status and Future Outlook:
Samsung has established a pilot production line for solid-state batteries and is delivering prototype samples to automakers.
Initial production is targeted for "super premium" EVs, with broader adoption dependent on cost reductions and scaling of manufacturing.

Samsung aims to mass-produce these batteries by 2027.

Comparison with Lithium-ion Batteries:

Feature

Samsung Solid-State Battery
Typical Lithium-ion Battery

Energy Density
500 Wh/kg
~270 Wh/kg

Lifespan
20 years
8-15 years

Charging Time (80%)
9 minutes
25-30 minutes

Safety
Higher
Lower (flammable liquid electrolyte)

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Gold vrs silver --> Some analysts are forecasting a drop in gold to 3000 or 2800 (article below), while silver simultaneously increases to 40 or even 46. That would actually jive with the current charts, since gold looks overextended, and the silver chart still bullish.


>>> Citi sees gold below $3,000 after Q3 2025 on weak demand, growth optimism


Reuters

June 17, 2025


https://www.reuters.com/business/citi-sees-gold-below-3000-after-q3-2025-weak-demand-growth-optimism-2025-06-17/


June 17 (Reuters) - Citi lowered its short-term and long-term price targets for gold, projecting prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by declining investment demand and an improving global growth outlook, the bank said in a note dated Monday.

The bank revised its 0-3 month and 6-12 month gold price targets to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500 and $2,800 per ounce from $3,000, respectively.

Gold prices are expected to continue consolidating between $3,100-$3,500 per ounce in the third quarter in the bank's base case, supported by geopolitical risks, potential U.S. tariff policy changes, and U.S. budget concerns, before a downward trend begins, Citi noted.

"We see investment demand for gold abating in late 2025 and 2026, as ultimately, we see the President Trump popularity and US growth 'put' kicking in, especially as the US mid-terms come into focus," Citi said in a note.

Gold could return to around $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026, the bank said.

In Citi's bullish case scenario, gold prices could exceed $3,500/oz in the third quarter on stronger hedging and investment demand amid U.S. economic and geopolitical tensions.

While in bank's bearish case prices could fall below $3,000/oz as tariff disputes are resolved, geopolitical risks ease, and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing, though emerging market central bank buying could keep prices elevated.

However, Citi assigned only 20% probability to their bullish and bearish case each.

In contrast to gold's cautious outlook, Citi forecast silver prices to rise to $40 per ounce over the next 6-12 months, driven by tightening availability and robust demand.

Silver could potentially reach $46 per ounce by the third quarter of 2025 in a bullish scenario, bolstered by a quicker resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and hawkish Federal Reserve policy, the bank added.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> The Truth About Fort Knox and Gold Leasing


by James Rickards

June 7, 2025


https://dailyreckoning.com/the-truth-about-fort-knox-and-gold-leasing/


The Truth About Fort Knox and Gold Leasing

Whatever happened to the Donald Trump and Elon Musk visit to Fort Knox?

You’ll recall the buzz from earlier this year. Trump and Musk loudly announced they were going to visit the U.S. bullion depository at Fort Knox, Kentucky to make sure the U.S. gold was actually there. The press was invited to tag along. Musk claimed that his DOGE team was ready to “audit” the gold bars to see that there were none missing. I had my own views on the announcement (described below) but I certainly agreed this would be the mother of all photo ops.

For the record, the U.S. Treasury holds 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold in the U.S. reserve position. Slightly less than half of this gold is stored in Fort Knox. The remainder is mostly stored in a secure vault at West Point, New York. The exact location of that vault is classified although I happen to know where it is. A small amount is held at the Denver Mint for coinage purposes. Legally the U.S. Treasury owns the gold reserve, but I point out that the U.S. Army actually controls it since almost all of the gold is stored on two Army bases – Fort Knox and West Point.

A Fort Knox Extravaganza

None of this nuance about storage and location deterred Trump and Musk. In the popular imagination, all of the gold is in Fort Knox. That’s where they were headed to prove once and for all that the gold was actually there. Elon Musk planned to livestream the entire visit using his Starlink satellite system. Trump vaguely threatened that if any gold were missing, there would be disastrous consequences for any wrongdoers who removed it. The plot was set. The drama seemed irresistible.

As an aside, I was hoping that Trump and Musk were each reasonably fit and had been lifting some free weights. Gold is heavy! In fact, it’s one of the most dense materials in the periodic table of the elements, leaving aside radioactive elements like uranium and some of the trace elements that only exist in minute atomic-level quantities. A standard 400-Troy Ounce bar weighs 27.4 pounds in the English system. I’ve lifted a few during my visits to secure gold vaults. I always smile for the camera, but inside it takes a lot of strength to keep the gold bar in the air. I was concerned that Trump or Musk might strain their backs putting on a show for the press.

Trump mentioned the proposed visit to Fort Knox in a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron. He mentioned it to reporters aboard Air Force One. He mentioned his plan again in remarks before the National Governors Association Conference and at the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) annual meeting.

Then suddenly the whole story went away. Trump never mentioned it again after February 26. Musk went radio silent on the topic after April 6. There was no visit to Fort Knox. There was no announcement about why there would be no visit. It was as if the whole story never happened. It just went away.

Now, Elon Musk is leaving his position as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). That was always in the cards. Musk’s appointment was as a temporary government employee; he was always going to leave about now. But why not put on a memorable gold show during his time in office? It simply never happened.

The Question Is, Why?

Let’s answer that beginning with the obvious point that the gold is all there. There have been rumors of missing and stolen gold almost from the day the bullion depository was built. Some suggested that European bankers stole the gold in the 1930s. Others said the Rockefeller clan looted the gold. The 1964 James Bond film Goldfinger is built around a plot to steal the gold.

This speculation makes for good rumor-mongering but, in fact, the gold is all present and accounted for. The last public audit was conducted in 1974, but annual audits are done by the U.S. Treasury (although the results are not made public). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said, “I can tell the American people … all the gold is there.”

If the gold is there (and it is), then why not go ahead with the visit? It would be great PR in any event and would reassure a skeptical American public.

A Money Monopoly

There are two reasons why the visit did not proceed and why you won’t hear more about it. The first one is that the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve (Fed) do not want to call attention to gold’s role as a monetary asset. The Fed (along with commercial banks) has a monopoly on the money printing press. The government has done everything possible to diminish and deny the role of gold as money, beginning with FDR’s confiscation of gold from U.S. citizens in 1933 and continuing through Nixon’s closing of the gold window for foreign trading partners in 1971. At this point, we have three generations of students since 1971 who know almost nothing about gold.

Gold is not taught in economics classes. Gold is not discussed in economic or Fed policy circles. Younger students don’t even know that the U.S. was ever on a gold standard or that gold once circulated freely as a form of money (usually in ¼-ounce or 8-gram coins). The government has eradicated any memory of gold as money. Why bring it back to life with a high-profile visit to Fort Knox? Better just to ignore gold if you want to maintain your money monopoly.

Of course, gold is a monetary asset. As noted, the U.S. has 8,133 metric tonnes (tonnes). Germany has 3,351 tonnes. Italy has 2,452 tonnes. France has 2,437 tonnes. Russia has 2,333 tonnes. And China reports that they have 2,292 tonnes although they are non-transparent and probably have much more. Among multilateral institutions, the European Central Bank has 506 tonnes and the IMF has 2,814 tonnes. If all of the members of the Euro area including the ECB combined their gold holdings, they would have 10,770 tonnes. All of these holdings should be put in the context of 36,118 tonnes, which is the amount of combined official gold holdings of every country in the world.



The Top 10 Gold Reserve Holdings By Country

Why have such large gold holdings persisted for a century or more in some cases and increase on a continual basis if gold is not money? The question answers itself. Gold is a form of money.

It’s simply the case that major countries don’t want to acknowledge it because they want to maintain their monopoly on paper money, or they are still acquiring it and don’t want to spike the price, at least until they complete their acquisition programs. One of the Marx Brothers’ classic punchlines was, “Who ya gonna believe … me or your own eyes?” When it comes to gold, I believe my own eyes. Official holdings of 36,118 metric tonnes of gold bullion tell me all I need to know.

The Leasing Scheme

There’s another even more insidious reason why Trump and Musk backed off from their Fort Knox visit. Even allowing for the fact that the gold is actually in Fort Knox the deeper question is whether that gold is leased?

Gold leasing is an established market but not well-understood by non-specialists. Even experts in stocks and bonds know little about gold leasing. Basically, it’s a way for a gold holder to earn a return. Gold does not pay dividends or interest like stocks and bonds. But you can lease it to a third party and make 2% or so annually in lease payments. The party leasing the gold does not back up a truck and take it away. The gold stays in the original vault. Gold leasing is a purely paper transaction.

The gold lessor gets the lease payment. The lessee gets what’s called a right of rehypothecation. That means the lessee can lease the same gold to another party. And that party can lease it to a fourth party and so on. With rehypothecation in play, one metric tonne of gold could support 100 metric tonnes of “paper gold” transactions.

At each step in the chain, a party acts like it owns the gold for its own purposes of further leases or sales of “unallocated” gold. Everyone has price exposure and can make money if the price of gold goes up or lose money if the price of gold goes down. The same principle applies to gold futures, gold options, gold swaps, gold ETFs and an entire world of gold derivative transactions. The point is that the paper gold world is leveraged about 100:1 to the physical gold world starting with the physical gold in Fort Knox.

The danger is obvious. It’s no different than any run on the bank when it comes to bank deposits. If a group of paper gold investors suddenly demands physical delivery, the counterparties have to buy gold in the spot market since the leased gold is not in their physical possession. The gold market is liquid, but not liquid enough to support delivery if there were demand for more physical than a small slice of the paper gold market. A full-scale gold panic could emerge quickly. The spot price of gold would go to $25,000 per ounce before an investor could yell “buy!”

I take it that someone (possibly Scott Bessent) sat down and patiently explained the paper gold reality to Trump and Musk.

Once you understand how the market actually works, you quickly back away from putting on a show at Fort Knox. For the masterminds of the paper gold market at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, the less said about gold the better. They need to keep the game going. And that’s why Trump and Musk won’t be showing up at Fort Knox anytime soon.

For the rest of us, the solution to this problem is simple – buy gold.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>> Priced In Gold <<

https://pricedingold.com/

From this site (link above), the S+P 500 is one of the few categories that have actually done better than gold over time, albeit with a lot of volatilty. Temporary factors have included that the gold price was artificially 'fixed' during the Breton Woods period (1944-71), which threw off the comparison for a while. Also, there was the 'King Dollar' period of Petrodollar dominance, and then the stock Dotcom market bubble and subsequent crash, which created temporary divergences between gold and the S+P 500. Then the arrival of gold ETFs like GLD was another factor in getting the big gold price surge going. But bottom line, the S+P 500 has done ~ 3 fold better than gold since 1950.

Timberland (since 1987) and farmland (since 1992) have also done better than gold, as has iron ore, with uranium and palladium ~ flat. Silver and platinum have lagged gold by a lot. US home prices have been ~ flat when priced in gold.

But just about every other category has lagged gold by a huge amount, especially bonds, cash. So the lesson is -- in addition to having a paid-for home, have some gold. If you have a business, then own the building / office suite if possible. For the long term, the S+P 500 has beaten gold by 3 fold, but be prepared to weather the volatility / crashes. Owning / investing in timberland and farmland could be another possibility. Owning some fine art might be another category.


https://pricedingold.com/sp-500/







---

[gfp927z]

>>> What's Driving the Rally in Platinum ETFs?


Zacks

by Sweta Killa

May 27, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-driving-rally-platinum-etfs-144500719.html


After being in the doldrums for a long time, the price of platinum has been on the rise lately due to persistent supply concerns and a sharp rise in Chinese imports. Spot platinum has soared to the highest level since May 2023 to $1,096.40 per ounce. The metal is up 20% so far this year. Renewed investor interest in the precious metals sector, especially the metal used in catalytic converters, jewellery and electronic items, added to the strength.

This has pushed platinum ETFs higher. abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF PPLT and GraniteShares Platinum Trust PLTM have risen 18.7% so far this year. The trio has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold).

Supply Constraints Intensify

The platinum market is grappling with a pronounced supply deficit. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) projects a shortfall of 848,000 ounces in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of deficits.

Declining Mine Output: South Africa, which accounts for more than half of global platinum production, faces challenges such as aging infrastructure and operational disruptions, leading to reduced output.

Recycling Bottlenecks: Recycling rates have plummeted to a 10-year low due to fewer end-of-life vehicles and logistical challenges, further constraining supply.

Dwindling Above-Ground Stocks: To bridge the supply-demand gap, above-ground inventories are being tapped, with projections indicating a 25% decline in 2025, reducing stocks to less than four months of global demand.

Demand Remains Robust
Platinum demand remains resilient.

Automotive Sector: The slowdown in EV adoption has led to sustained demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles, both of which utilize platinum in catalytic converters. Additionally, stricter emissions regulations, such as Europe's upcoming Euro 7 standards, are expected to increase platinum loadings in vehicles.

Jewelry Demand: High gold prices have prompted consumers and jewelers to turn to platinum as a cost-effective alternative. According to the WPIC, demand for platinum jewelry in China is beginning to rise again after declining over the past decade.

Investment Inflows: Investment demand for platinum has surged, with a 300% increase in first-quarter 2025 compared with the previous year. Reports of increasing demand for platinum bars and coins have supported the precious metal.

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT)

abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF seeks to match the price of platinum. It has amassed $1.1 billion in its asset base and trades in a good volume of about 195,000 shares a day. The fund charges 60 bps in annual fees.

GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM)

GraniteShares Platinum Trust also tracks the performance of the price of platinum and is physically backed in a vault domiciled in London, United Kingdom. It has AUM of $56.8 million and charges 50 bps in annual fees. GraniteShares Platinum Trust trades in an average daily volume of 123,000 shares.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> Gold: The Everything Hedge


By James Rickards

April 24, 2025


https://dailyreckoning.com/gold-the-everything-hedge/


Gold: The Everything Hedge

It’s a subject we analyze continually, and we have recommended gold as part of a sound investment portfolio for years. Today the dollar price of gold is hovering near all-time highs over $3,300 per ounce.

Gold has been on a tear lately. It was $1,830 as of October 5, 2023. At today’s prices, that marks a 75% surge in just 18 months. Gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years. Gold was around $250 per ounce in 1999. The gain since then is 1,180% or almost 12 times the starting price.

This is not the first bull market for gold. In the gold bull market of 1971 to 1980, gold rose 2,185%. In the gold bull market of 1999 to 2011, gold rose 670%. There were notable gold bear markets from 1981 to 1999 and again from 2012 to 2015. There were no bull or bear markets before 1971 because the world was on a gold standard and the price was fixed at $35.00 per ounce from 1944 to 1971. Still, the upward trend in gold prices is relentless and undeniable. Taking the entire period from 1971 until today including bull and bear markets gold has risen over 9,000%. Not bad.

Of course, that’s all in the past. What investors want to know is where do we go from here? The short answer is up significantly.

Here’s Why

The most fundamental reason for the rise in gold prices is simple supply and demand. Central banks predominantly from developing markets moved from being net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010. Total gold reserves of central banks have risen significantly since then from just over 30,000 metric tonnes (mt) to over 35,000mt today.

The top buyers were the central banks of Russia, China, Turkey, Poland and India. Russia increased its reserves by 1,684mt to a total of 2,333mt. China increased its reserves by 1,181mt to a total of 2,235mt. Iran is also a major buyer of gold, but it is non-transparent, and its purchases and reserves are not publicly known.

At the same time gold demand has been growing, gold output is flat. Global mining output of gold was about 130 million ounces in 2018 and was about 120 million ounces in 2024. Output declined slowly from 2018 to 2022 and then recovered slowly over the course of 2023 and 2024 but the change in both directions was slight.

Gold production is projected to grow slightly from today until 2030 but is still not projected to exceed the 2018 high. In short, gold production by miners is flat. This does not mean that we are at “peak gold” or that new discoveries are not being made. They are. What it means is that gold is becoming harder to find and costs of production (especially water and energy) are going up, so the total output trend is flat.

Continually increasing demand with flat output is a recipe for higher gold prices.

The second driver of higher prices is the role of BRICS+. From an original membership of Brazil, Russia, India and China in 2009 (South Africa joined in 2010), the group has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE. It’s waiting list of additional members who will be added in the years ahead includes Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam among others.

There was much discussion in 2023 and 2024 about a new BRICS currency that would displace the U.S. dollar in trade among members and might ultimately prove to be an acceptable reserve currency to rival the dollar. In fact, no such alternative currency is in the works. It might happen in the future but it would take ten years or longer properly to design and implement.

Instead, the BRICS are building a new payments system using proprietary cables, secure servers and highly encrypted message traffic protocols along with a blockchain-type ledger. Payments are in local currencies in the new payment channels that cannot be disrupted by western powers.

This begs the question of how trade imbalances accumulating in local currencies can be settled and converted into more liquid assets. The traditional answer was dollars. In short, the BRICS+ already have a new global currency, which is actually quite old – it’s gold. This is one reason why BRICS+ members are among the largest buyers of gold bullion.

The Everything Hedge

Importantly, gold is not just an inflation hedge, in fact it is an imperfect inflation hedge in terms of strict correlation. Gold prices have skyrocketed in recent years even as inflation has remained relatively tame (despite an inflation surge in 2022). A better model is to think of gold as the “everything hedge.”

The vectors of uncertainty are everywhere. These include tariffs, tax policy, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the War in Ukraine, the rise of China, a likely recession, left-wing violence, and even the status of Greenland and the Panama Canal among others.

It’s difficult to forecast how any one of these situations will turn out, let alone all of them and their complex interactions. Stocks and bonds can be volatile as a result. Gold is the one safe haven asset that powers through them all and offers investors some peace of mind. It is truly the everything hedge.

These drivers are sending gold prices higher and putting a floor under current price levels so that investors can enjoy potential upside with reduced concern about the downside. That’s what we call an asymmetric trade, which greatly favors investors.

Finally, there’s a simple bit of math combined with behavioral psychology that could propel gold prices to the $10,000 per ounce level in far less time than most analysts believe.

Investors naturally focus on dollar gains in the price of gold. When gold goes from $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce, investors cheer on the $1,000 gain. The same is true when gold goes from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce. Again, investors pat themselves on the back for another $1,000 per ounce gain.

What investors don’t realize at least initially is that each $1,000 per ounce gain is easier than the one before. This phenomena involves the interaction of simple math and more complicated behavioral psychology.

The psychology is a matter of what’s called anchoring. The investor anchors on the number of $1,000 as a fixed gain and treats each such gain as the same. In pure dollars, they are the same. You make $1,000 per ounce as each benchmark is passed.

Because each $1,000 per ounce gain begins from a higher level, the percentage gain associated with each dollar gain is less. The increase from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. The increase from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is not much more than a good month. (Gold has been going up 1% to 2% daily with recent volatility).

This math is what gives rise to a gold buying frenzy. We’re not there yet. Gold buying has been limited mostly to central banks and large institutions such as sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Retail interest in the U.S. has been slight although retail buyers have been more active in India and China. Once the frenzy kicks in those $1,000 benchmarks will be passed quickly. That’s why it’s not too late to become a gold investor. Don’t kick yourself about the gains you’ve missed. Instead, look forward to the gains that are coming.

How To Invest

The two main ways to invest in gold are what I call paper gold and physical gold bullion. Paper gold refers to securities and futures linked to the price of gold such as exchange-traded funds (GLD is the most liquid ticker), COMEX gold futures or unallocated gold purchase agreements available from large banks. Paper gold will give you price exposure and the potential for gains, but you do not own gold bullion. Many things can go wrong with a paper gold strategy including early termination of contracts, closure of futures exchanges or the failure of a dealer bank. You may find that you’re out of the gold market just when you most want to be in it.

Physical bullion is my preferred way to invest in gold. American Gold Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint in one-ounce or one-quarter ounce denominations are practical. For larger amounts you can look at 1-kilo gold bars from a reputable refiner. Do not buy “rare” or “pre-1933” gold coins unless you are a collector or numismatic expert. The premium for such coins is high and they are not worth the extra expense. Gold is gold.

Do not store your bullion in a safe deposit box. Banks are the first place the government will lock down in a crisis. Your gold could be seized. Use a private storage company like Brinks or install a home safe. If you’re using a home safe there are several techniques you can use to protect it. The best protection is not to tell anyone you have gold. That way no one will come looking.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold prices surge, but miners lag behind: GoldMining CEO on the disconnect & significant investment opportunity


Kitco Mining

Mar 18, 2025


https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-03-18/gold-prices-surge-miners-lag-behind-goldmining-ceo-disconnect-significant


Gold prices surge, but miners lag behind: GoldMining CEO on the disconnect & significant investment opportunity


(Kitco News) - Despite gold prices climbing 41% year over year and trading above $3,000 an ounce, mining equities have yet to catch up, creating what industry leaders see as a significant investment opportunity.

Speaking at PDAC 2025, GoldMining Inc., CEO Alastair Still pointed to a growing disconnect between bullion prices and the performance of gold mining stocks.

“Surprisingly, to see such a rapid increase in the price of gold, what we haven’t seen is a catch-up with the equities,” Still told Kitco Mining. “There’s a disconnect between gold price and the gold equities.”

The mining sector has yet to experience a major influx of capital from generalist investors, Still noted, despite strong earnings from major producers. “On some of the earlier-stage explorers and developers, there’s an even bigger disconnect,” he added.

Scarcity of supply, rising M&A activity

Still emphasized the scarcity of gold supply, a factor that continues to drive industry consolidation. “Big miners, their reserves are difficult to replace, and they need to play catch-up, so that creates M&A opportunity,” he said, referring to the wave of merger and acquisition activity seen across the sector.

“We’re starting to see more rhetoric this week about it. Big companies now have the option to pay in cash or shares, which is a great option,” Still explained. “The reality is the scarcity of projects and good quality projects in stable jurisdictions.”

Retail investors remain on the sidelines

Despite gold’s strong fundamentals, retail investors have yet to fully embrace mining stocks. Many continue to favor large-cap technology names, even as gold prices rise. “There are certain stocks that capture people’s attention, but the nice thing about gold is that it offers generational opportunities,” Still said.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking gold have seen inflows, a positive sign for the metal’s future. However, the lag in mining stock valuations suggests that investors remain hesitant to shift their capital away from other asset classes.

Geopolitical tensions and economic instability continue to bolster gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. “Generally, that works out favorably for gold,” Still noted, referencing global uncertainties that have fueled demand for the precious metal. “We may see some settling in the short term, but long term, the fundamentals are still very much there.”

GoldMining’s strategic position

GoldMining, which has significant cash reserves, remains well-positioned amid these market dynamics. The company is an exploration-stage firm, meaning it is not yet directly affected by production-related cost fluctuations.

Additionally, GoldMining has a diverse portfolio, including exposure to copper and uranium, assets that are gaining importance amid the global push for clean energy. “Not only do we have gold in the portfolio, but often byproducts that come with the gold,” Still said. “About 20% of our commodity exposure is to copper.”

Outlook for 2025: A turning point?

With higher cash flows, major miners may soon ramp up acquisitions. “We’re on the tip of the iceberg,” Still said, predicting that consolidation will intensify this year. “Majors take a conservative approach, but what we’ve also seen is that they’re on the hunt right now.”

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> Gold’s Historic Rally


By James Rickards

February 28, 2025


https://dailyreckoning.com/golds-historic-rally/


Gold’s Historic Rally

Even casual observers know that gold has been trading near all-time highs lately. The dollar price of gold has been trading around $2,955 per ounce, quite close to the all-time closing high and near the recent intraday high just below $3,000 per ounce. Since November 1, 2022, gold has rallied from $1,650 per ounce to $2,955 per ounce, an 80% gain in 28 months.

Since the U.S. dollar is also near interim highs based on leading indices, gold’s performance when measured in euros, sterling or Swiss francs is even stronger. We expect this trend to continue and to push gold solidly above the $3,000 per ounce level on its way to even higher levels in the months ahead.

Trump: Show Me The Gold!

That’s news in its own right but there’s a lot more going on in the gold space than just the price action. President Trump and Elon Musk (head of the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, and the world’s richest man) are planning to visit Fort Knox in the near future to “audit” the gold stocks and make sure all of the gold is where it’s supposed to be. I’m certain that visit will be the mother of all photo-ops.

Of course, Trump and Musk will not be conducting a real audit in the financial sense. They’ll just look around and show that the gold is actually there. This should lay to rest the rumors and ill-founded theories that the gold is somehow missing or has been shipped to JPMorgan. It hasn’t been.

Make U.S. Assets Great Again

Even this publicity visit has not captured all of the gold news lately. On a more serious note, Scott Bessent the U.S. Treasury Secretary said recently that “within the next twelve months, we’re going to monetize the asset side of the balance sheet for the American people. We’re going to put the assets to work.” There has been so much focus on the liability side of the balance sheet (basically the $38 trillion in national debt) that it’s refreshing to hear a senior official talk about the asset side.

The liberal critics will wail that Bessent plans to sell Yosemite National Park to real estate developers. Nothing like that will happen but the U.S. does have ample assets it can sell, lease or otherwise monetize without invading national parks or wilderness areas. These include mineral and mining rights, intellectual property, airwaves, rights of way, flight paths, and, yes, property development rights and land sales in non-sensitive areas. No one has any idea what all of this is worth, but it’s certainly worth in the trillions of dollars and can be monetized for the benefit of the American people including paying down the national debt.

Gold dealers and gold bugs immediately focused on one particular U.S. asset that could be monetized – gold. The U.S. has 8,133 metric tonnes of gold bullion in three locations – Fort Knox, West Point and the Denver mint – that could be sold. That gold has a current market value of $771 billion. Of course, any effort to sell more than a small fraction of that would drive the price of gold straight down. It would be an immense blunder to sell any of it anyway. The Treasury should be buying gold to maintain confidence in the dollar, not selling it.

Another take on monetizing gold revolves around the fact that the Federal Reserve currently holds a gold certificate issued by the U.S. Treasury in 1934 in compensation for the transfer of gold bullion from the Fed to the Treasury on orders of Franklin Roosevelt (backed up by legislation). That certificate is valued on the Fed’s books at $42.22 per ounce. If the Treasury ordered the Fed to write-up the value to market, that would add $760 billion to the Treasury’s general account, which could be used to finance the U.S. government without adding new debt.

Marked Up Gold: Not A Revenue Stream

Trump definitely wants new revenue streams for the government. I wouldn’t count marking-up the price of gold as a revenue stream. It does produce cash with no addition to the national debt but it’s not really a revenue stream; it’s just an accounting entry. It does produce cash but only on a one-time basis. In principle, you could repeat the process if gold went higher in the future but that’s uncertain and not completely reliable like taxes, leases and tariffs.

Despite the gold bug claims, there is no particular connection between marking up the price of gold (accounting) and selling gold reserves for cash (monetizing). One has nothing to do with the other. The government could sell the gold today at the market price without having to wash the accounting through the Treasury general account at the Fed. There’s nothing about marking up the price of gold on the Fed’s books that affects the government’s ability to sell the gold one way or the other.

Can The U.S. Even Sell Gold?

Still, the issue of monetizing gold has to be put in the context of whether the government can legally sell any gold at all. If you convert the Fed’s gold certificate into Troy ounces of gold (not dollars but ounces), it’s approximately equal to the entire U.S. gold reserve today (8,133 metric tonnes). If the Fed’s gold certificate is intended to be backed by physical gold, it’s possible the government cannot sell any gold without diluting the Fed’s gold certificate.

This is not discussed in economic literature to my knowledge, but it could be a simple derivative of the Fifth Amendment constraint that required the Treasury to give the Fed something of fair value when the gold was confiscated in 1934. This happened when the U.S. was on a gold standard and the weight and value of gold were interchangeable.

That’s not true today. Weight is constant but value fluctuates. It may be the case that the Treasury has to maintain a certain amount of gold by weight regardless of value in order to honor the original deal. If this analysis is correct, that’s extremely bullish for gold. It means the world’s largest single holder of gold (the U.S.) cannot be a seller!

Another idea which has surfaced in the hype surrounding Bessent’s comments about monetizing assets is that the U.S. could sell gold and use the proceeds to buy foreign government bonds that ostensibly produce higher yields than U.S. Treasuries. An alternative is to issue Treasury bonds backed by gold that would (in theory) carry a zero interest rate because they are “inflation proof.” This creates an arbitrage between higher yielding foreign government debt and supposedly zero interest U.S. Treasury debt that produces income for the Treasury.

This idea is nonsense for a long list of reasons.

In the first place, the U.S. already has inflation adjusted Treasury bonds. They’re called TIPS and offer investors a market interest rate plus an adjustment for inflation. An inflation-proof gold-backed bond is therefore redundant. If you like gold, just go buy some. We don’t need to make the Treasury jump through bond market hoops.

The second reason is that gold is not particularly correlated to inflation. In the past two-and-a-half years, gold has gone up 80% and cumulative inflation has been around 10%. Where’s the correlation? The price of gold is driven more by uncertainty, liquidity and geopolitics. Indexing Treasury bonds to gold prices would have resulted in windfalls for investors and a huge loss for the Treasury.

In addition, it’s not clear why selling or monetizing gold reserves has anything to do with buying foreign government bonds. The Fed could just buy them with printed money and the Treasury could just buy them with borrowed money. The gold reserve issue has nothing to do with it.

Finally, the calculation of whether buying foreign sovereign bonds makes sense for the Treasury involves a comparison of U.S. interest rates to German or Italian interest rates. Right now, German interest rates are about two points lower than U.S. rates, so those bonds would have negative carry from the U.S. perspective. That’s a bad deal. You also have to factor in exchange-rate risk. If the euro went down against the U.S. dollar, the Treasury would lose on the exchange rate and the interest rate. That’s a very bad deal.

As mentioned, I recommend gold as an investment asset and own it myself. It’s just not the case that the Treasury has to mess around in gold, bond and currency markets to achieve some opaque goal that can be achieved directly just by leaving the gold in Fort Knox and issuing TIPS.

A U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund

In the midst of the noise set off by Bessent’s monetization comments was a striking remark by Trump that he would like to establish a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. That’s highly significant.

Right now, official U.S. reserves are about 70% in gold with the rest in a few foreign currencies. The idea of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is to allow a country with reserves to diversify into stocks, bonds, natural resources, property and a lot else instead of just holding gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Most countries with SWFs finance it with their trade surplus. Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia are among the biggest SWF holders in part because of their oil revenue trade surpluses. The U.S. doesn’t have a trade surplus, but we might soon have substantial revenues from tariffs. The U.S. could always borrow money to finance a sovereign wealth fund. Then it would be more like a hedge fund, but that might be Trump’s style. (Scott Bessent was a hedge fund manager for Soros).

I did extensive collections and research on sovereign wealth funds for the Director of National Intelligence when it was a hot topic around 2007-2008. The SWF issue faded after 2009 as it was overshadowed by the global financial crisis. SWFs lost a lot of money in that panic. But they never went away and have recovered their losses since then. Trump may bring SWFs back into style.

Bessent’s asset monetization comment and Trump’s reference to a sovereign wealth fund for the U.S. are critical initiatives that we’ll be watching closely. In the short run, the gold bug and other hype has run far ahead of the reality. In the long run, both initiatives may come to fruition and mark a material reset in the international monetary system.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold Revaluation: Solution Or Desperation?


Zero Hedge

Monday, Feb 24, 2025

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,


https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-revaluation-solution-or-desperation


Topics like bond yields, dollar debates, or yield curves can be admittedly, well, boring.

And things like politics can be, well… emotional at best or divisive at worst.

Shared Concern Among So Much Division?

In the current Zeitgeist, it’s hard to get through the fog of market complexity or the self-censorship of political polarization to arrive at anything even resembling a shared concern.

But we should all be concerned if we are collectively sinking on a global debt ship with not enough lifeboats to save our fiat current’s absolute purchasing power.

And when it comes to the water over-filling the air-tight compartments of the U.S. debt Titanic, we need to look soberly at what the Trump America is facing.

Toward this end, let’s be blunt.

Can’t We All Agree that America is Broke?

Public debt – $37T, unfunded liabilities at $190T. A debt/GDP ratio above 120%, etc.

The USA is in an unprecedented debt trap/spiral, the math, details, history and consequences of which we have been tracking for years.

And history (ignored) tells us an even darker yet simpler truth: debt destroys nations.

Every time and without exception.

Boring Bond Yields

Given that the USA in particular (and the world in general) is witnessing the greatest debt crisis of human history, should we not be equally concerned rather than politically divided when it comes to such boring things like bond yields (which reflect the very cost of debt)?

As for those boring bond yields, let’s just keep it broad and simple.

Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury represent the cost of money/debt for nearly everyone on the globe, in general and Uncle Sam in particular.

This means that when those yields start to climb too high, just about everything and everyone (including the country you reside in) starts to fall deeper into “uh-oh.”

And those yields rise when demand (i.e., purchasing) of those bonds starts to fall.
Read that last line again. Let it sink in.

When trust, love and/or demand and price for UST’s falls, pain for just about everything but the USD (and now gold) spikes.

Boring? Yes.

But relevant?

Absolutely.

From Boring Bonds to Just About Everything

So, what does such boring bond/UST talk have to do with your currency, your wealth or your lives?

And what does such boring bond talk have to do with market risk, gold prices, BTC’s direction or the fate of Trump’s America or even world trade and peace?

A lot.

Trump Change

Trump is a disruptor. A political outsider to a DC setting for which the term “swamp” is probably too kind.

He’s making bold statements and directives on everything from tariffs and immigration to JFK’s assassination (no great mystery there…) and DOGE spending cuts.

Love or hate him – he’s certainly busy making change…

And although he may know far more about real estate capitalism than he does about government debt or US history, his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, knows a heck of a lot about the latter – which means he’s dealing with a lot of contradictions coming out of today’s White House.

No Change Without Consequence or Contradiction

Trump’s administration is making headlines, for example, about a stronger USD, ending inflation, optimizing tariff revenues, saving big oil and getting those boring UST yields down.

But there’s just one catch – no one, not even Trump or Santa Clause, can do all that without radically re-shaping the prior notion of American exceptionalism.

And ironically, no one knows this better than Trump’s own Treasury Secretary.

Why?

It’s simple – and even a bit “boring” – but the forces at play will directly impact YOU, so it’s worth a few reality checks and simple fact-reminders here.

It All Starts (and Ends) with the Dollar

If Trump, for example, pushes for a stronger dollar and aggressive tariffs (love or hate em), such a policy would not only create a drag on the global economy (which owes over $14T in USD-denominated debt), it would also be knife wound to Uncle Sam, oil production and the very yields the Trump White House wants to reduce.

That is, a rising dollar forces foreigners (and nations) to sell/dump USTs to get more liquidity to pay debts.

And if USTs continue to sell off, then prices fall, and yields rise; and when yields rise, even Uncle Sam reaches a point where he can’t afford his own bar tab.

See the paradox? The trap? The boring yet incredibly important relationship between bonds, currencies and economic life itself?

The USD: Weaker By Necessity

This relationship between a strong dollar and UST yields is clear and direct, and although the headlines and consensus still see a strong dollar ahead, I’ve long argued the oppositefor the simple reason that America itself can’t afford a strong dollar.

And deep down, Scott Bessent (a private gold buyer) knows this, too.

He’s openly admitted to the “counterparty” risk of a strong USD, but he won’t publicly confess that one of those counterparties at risk is the U.S. itself.

So, what is to be done?

How can Trump afford short-term tariff costs, cut spending/waste in DC (via DOGE), pay for the needed re-shoring of American jobs, or even win the war on inflation without risking debt issuance to the moon and hence bond yields even higher (which recently rose from 4.3% to 4.65% in just three trading days)?

Well, as even his own Treasury Secretary knows under his breath, the answer is simple: he can’t.

Unless…

Unless …an already openly declining, and hence openly desperate, debt-soaked nation does what all desperate individuals or nations do: resort to desperate measures.

Only Desperate Options Left

Bessent knows that for anything Trump wants to enact to grow the American economy; he must first get Uncle Sam’s debt to GDP levels to a place where growth is even mathematically feasible.

At current debt/GDP levels, for example, such growth is mathematically impossible.

So, what can the US do under Trump?

1) Inflate Away Our Debt?

We could end up inflating away our debt.

For that to happen, we’d need years of inflation and negative real rates at well over 15% to even come close to “inflating away” such debt.

This would not only be fatally painful for U.S. citizens but also political suicide for Trump.

2) Play the Yellen Card?

Bessent could try his predecessor’s playbook of just issuing more UST’s (IOUs) from the short end of the yield curve or emptying the reverse repo market and TGA accounts to buy more time/liquidity and create more debt.

But with the world dumping USTs and bracing itself for more tariff and trade wars, there just isn’t enough love, trust or buyers for those American IOUs anymore…

More importantly, such wimpy measures can no longer save a nation whose bar tab (interest expense on outstanding debt, entitlements and defence) is 140% of its tax receipts.

That, folks, is neon-flashing evidence of desperation, which means we are now at an inflection point where the only measures left are entirely emergency measures – and they come with a cost. A serious cost.

3) Create BTC Bubble?

The U.S. could also help pay down some debt by speculating in a politicized BTC bubble, and then use the speculation proceeds (not actual BTC “currency”) to pay down debt in an emerging-market-desperation play akin to El Salvadore?

This is desperation at its highest, yet masquerading as “tech” nirvana to the rescue…

I’ve written and spoken about this option at greater length here and here.

4) Revaluing Gold?

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the topic of gold revaluation is also ripping through the precious metal pundit circles at a galvanic pace, and for good reason.

Based upon “reported” U.S. gold holdings, if gold were politically re-priced to just $4000 per ounce, that would create an additional $1.2T of instant liquidity (i.e. inflationary M2), which the Treasury Department could then direct deposit into an ever-drying TGA.

(This direct deposit is made legal under Section 2.10 of the Financial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks.)

Such a gold revaluation policy would take a lot of pressure off Bessent’s Treasury Department and buy the U.S. more time and money for the aforementioned Trump policies to “Make America Great Again.”

But could a potential series of gold revaluations to inject new money into the TGA piggy bank truly make America, well… great?

Or would it just save the U.S. economy from crumbling to the ground?

Kissinger’s Ghost

In the 1970s, Kissinger was very concerned when Europe, which collectively owned more gold than the U.S., wanted to revalue their gold to similarly cover their own debt disasters at home.

This would mean the U.S. would have to do the same, thereby playing its last Trump card (pun intended) of desperation (reverting to its gold vaults) in 1974.

And why was Kissinger so terrified of having to resort to the ultimate “red button” act of desperation in the form of revaluing its last real form of sound money/wealth?

Because Kissinger knew then what many of us know.

That is, if the USA shows its hand and starts revaluing gold to higher and higher levels to pay down higher and higher levels of debt (to keep politicians in power and the masses free of pitchforks), this would mean the end of American supremacy, hegemony and/or the Pax Americana.

Why?

Because he who has the most gold wins, and despite what the World Gold Council reports, it’s an open secret that America does not have the most gold (in a world of central banks stacking gold at record levels and COMEX revolving doors).

The Dilemma: Greatness or Survival?

Trump, Bessent, and the USA itself thus face a debt trap and, hence, a sovereign dilemma of historical import.

Yes, certainly, the U.S. can and may revalue its gold holdings to dig itself partially out of debt and hence spur more growth.

But once/if the U.S. revalues, the rest of the world will naturally follow, and that will make the US just one more economically average nation among many, but certainly not the strongest anymore.

Kissinger knew this.

Do Bessent and Trump?

Either Way, Gold Wins

Regardless of whether such a formal gold revaluation occurs from the top down in DC, the gold price will continue to rise (re-value itself) naturally from the bottom up for the simple reason that debt-soaked nations = debased currencies.

Gold, which only rises because fiat money inevitably suffocates under debt, sits at a different kind of historical moment.

It gets the last laugh because sovereign debt, led by sovereign mismanagement, has killed its sovereign currency in a death by a thousand cuts.

So, yes, gold gets the last laugh – but the circumstances couldn’t be sadder.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Comparing the various ways to participate in gold --> Bullion, Bullion ETFs (GLD), and Miners (GDX, GDXJ). The miners have outperformed since the 2016 bottom, albeit with more volatility compared to bullion, and with much higher downside risk during stock market crashes -

Performance since 2016 bottom (approx) -

GLD --- up 1.7 fold
GDX --- up 2.7 fold
GDXJ - up 3.2 fold

Performance during stock market crashes (approx) -

2008 -

S+P 500 - down 52%
GLD ------ down 31%
GDX ------ down 74%

2020 -

S+P 500 - down 35%
GLD ------ down 14%
GDX ------ down 48%
GDXJ ---- down 58%



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold heads for eighth weekly gain as precious metals shipments to US rise


Yahoo Finance

by Ines Ferré

February 21, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-heads-for-eighth-weekly-gain-as-precious-metals-shipments-to-us-rise-195332488.html


Gold was on track for its eighth weekly gain Friday as buyers sought out the safe-haven asset amid the threat of tariffs and a price disparity between the US and London created incentives to ship more physical kilo bars into New York.

On Friday, gold futures (GC=F) backed off their all-time high from the prior session to hover near $2,950 while the spot, or wholesale reserve price in London, traded at around $2,930 an ounce.

Gold is up roughly 11% year to date after hitting its 11th record of 2025 on Thursday.

Much of that price action is attributed to continued central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty over US tariffs, including the possibility that even the precious metal wouldn't be spared from broad-based levies.

Earlier this week, President Trump said he intends to impose levies on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products. Plans for retaliatory tariffs against countries that charge levies on US goods are also expected in April.

Uncertainty over attempts at a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia also put upward pressure on the precious metal.

Meanwhile, a larger-than-normal price difference between gold futures in the US and the wholesale reserve, or spot price in London, has prompted institutional investors to ship elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York. Gold inventories for the futures exchange COMEX have spiked since November, reaching their highest level since the pandemic in 2021, according to Bloomberg data.

"I think there’s some fear that if the gold isn’t available for one reason or another, the price is going to explode," Brett Elliott, director of marketing at American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), told Yahoo Finance.

"What they [institutional investors] started doing in response is stockpiling. ... When you have conditions like that and you throw in some safe haven demands on top of it, you’re going to see the price of gold start to creep up," he said.

Central bank demand for gold hit an all-time high last year, with purchases accelerating in the fourth quarter, according to the World Gold Council.

"At the heart of everything, that risk and allocation to gold as a diversifier remains prominent for investors," said Joe Cavatoni, market strategist at the World Gold Council. "It’s absolutely an essential asset."

The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle last year drove prices higher as the non-yielding asset became more attractive to investors. Despite the Fed's pause on rate cuts and market uncertainty over its next rate decision, Wall Street predicts more gains for the precious metal this year.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per troy ounce, up from $2,890 and "on structurally higher" central bank demand, led by the largest buyer, China.

"We estimate that structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end," wrote Goldman's commodity strategist Lina Thomas.

"However, if policy uncertainty — including tariff fears — stays high, higher speculative positioning for longer could push gold prices as high as $3,300/toz by year-end," the strategist said.

Meanwhile, global fund managers surveyed by BofA believe gold will beat out US equities to rank as the second-best-performing asset class in 2025, right behind global equities.

The fund managers surveyed also forecast gold would perform best in the event of a "full-blown trade war," ahead of the US dollar or 30-year bonds.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Platinum prices will beat palladium in the next two years - Capital Economics


Kitco Media

By Neils Christensen

Feb 06, 2025


https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-02-06/platinum-prices-will-beat-palladium-next-two-years-capital-economics


Platinum prices will beat palladium in the next two years - Capital Economics teaser image

(Kitco News) - While gold and silver are grabbing all the attention as bullish momentum drives prices higher, another pair in the precious metals sector deserves investors' attention, according to one research firm.

In her latest precious metals report, Ankita Amajuri of Capital Economics said she expects platinum to outperform palladium this year as the electric vehicle revolution encounters some speed bumps. Platinum is already taking a slight lead in the marketplace, with prices pushing above $1,000 an ounce.

April platinum futures last traded at $1,020 an ounce, down 0.50% on the day. Meanwhile, March platinum futures last traded at $992 an ounce, down more than 2% on the session.

“A rise in platinum-for-palladium substitution has contributed to a convergence in platinum and palladium prices since 2021,” said Amajuri. “While we expect both prices to remain close to each other over our forecast horizon, we suspect that platinum will outperform.”

Capital Economics forecasts platinum prices will end the year at $1,075 an ounce and rise to $1,150 an ounce by 2026. At the same time, the British research firm expects palladium to trade at $1,050 an ounce this year and rise to $1,100 an ounce next year.

Both platinum and palladium are critical metals used in the automotive sector. Palladium is primarily used in gasoline-powered engines, while platinum is used in both gasoline and diesel engines. Since 2015, palladium has led the Platinum Group Metals space after the diesel car industry was rocked by an emissions scandal.

In March 2022, palladium reached an all-time high of $3,488 an ounce as demand for gasoline vehicles dominated the marketplace. In comparison, platinum prices hovered around $1,100 in March 2022.

Fast-forward to today: Amajuri noted that the trend has shifted as demand for hybrid vehicles increases. Platinum is now the primary metal in catalytic converters for these vehicles because it is more efficient in lower-temperature engines.

“While the auto industry currently accounts for approximately 40% of platinum demand, we expect this figure to edge higher due to the increased use of platinum in hybrid vehicles, which are rapidly capturing market share—not only from diesel vehicles, which typically use platinum, but also from gasoline-engine vehicles, where catalytic converters have traditionally used palladium,” Amajuri said.

Although platinum is expected to outperform other PGMs, Amajuri noted that the sector is finding a broader bottom due to shifting political ideologies.

“We expect demand to rise as the adoption of EVs slows during President Trump’s term,” she said.

At the same time, Amajuri anticipates a further imbalance in PGM supplies, which could provide additional support for platinum and palladium.

“A Trump presidency could have even greater implications for the supply of palladium. Russia accounts for 40% of global palladium supply, and sanctions imposed on subsidiaries of Nornickel, the world’s largest producer, have kept a floor on prices so far. However, if President Trump follows through on his threats to impose further sanctions on Russia to pressure an end to the war in Ukraine, this could further squeeze global palladium supply,” she said. “Although PGM production from South African mines has recovered to its pre-pandemic level, ongoing challenges with power cuts make significant growth in platinum supply unlikely.”

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Thanks -- >>> Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (PLG) engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of platinum and palladium properties. The company explores for palladium, platinum, gold, copper, nickel, and rhodium deposits. It holds 50.16 % interest in the Waterberg project located on the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Igneous Complex, South Africa. The company develops next-generation battery technology using platinum and palladium. Platinum Group Metals Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. <<<

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLG/profile/


>>> Goliath Resources Limited (GOTRF), a junior resource exploration company, engages in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties in British Columbia, Canada. The company explores for gold, silver, copper, and molybdenum. It has an option to acquire 100% interests in the Golddigger property consists of contiguous mineral claims, located to the southeast of Stewart; and 49% interest in the Luckystrike property located in Terrace, British Columbia. In addition, the company holds interests in the Nelligan project located in Quebec, Canada. Goliath Resources Limited is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. <<<

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOTRF/profile/


>>> Vior Inc. (VIORF), a junior mining exploration company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mining properties in Canada. It primarily explores for gold, nickel, titanium dioxide, and lithium deposits.nThe company's flagship project is the 100% owned Belleterre Gold Project comprising 635 claims covering an area of approximately 350 square kilometers located in the Abitibi-Temiskaming region of Quebec. Vior Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Montreal, Canada. <<<

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VIORF/profile/


---

[StormyRebel93]

Platinum Group Metals now has an agreement to ship ore to Saudi Arabia.

[StormyRebel93]

Goliath Resources has had a nice move, and they have more cores in for assays. Vior incorporated has cores in for assay, the first results look promising.

[gfp927z]

>>> Platinum Demand for Hydrogen Vehicles Could Drive ETFs

The price of the rare metal spiked in April.


ETF.com

by Sean Daly

May 12, 2023


https://www.etf.com/sections/features/platinum-demand-hydrogen-vehicles-could-drive-etfs


Platinum-focused exchange-traded funds may make headlines over the next few months as power issues in South Africa crimp global supply, and interest in hydrogen vehicles boosts demand for the rare metal.

Eskom Holdings is responsible for?95% of all electricity in South Africa, but decades of underinvestment and mismanagement have left it in tough shape with chronic outages.

In late April, Eskom was forced to institute Stage 8 load shedding for the first time in its history. “Load shedding” is the switching off of parts of the electric grid in a planned and controlled manner due to insufficient capacity in order to avoid a countrywide blackout.

If that wasn’t enough, labor strife is heating up. On April 21, unions rejected management’s 3.75% pay increase offer, saying it is too far below the current rate of inflation, demanding instead a 15% increase in wages.

Mining is responsible for 32% of electrical use in the country, and though it is highly profitable for the country, it is butting up against the limits of the existing grid.

According to Bank of America, platinum is expected to rise to $1,500 an ounce by year-end—up 38% from its present price of $1,087—citing the rolling blackout situation as a likely hit to South African production.

In contrast to supply constraints, platinum demand is expanding. Due to its unique physical properties, platinum is being used more in biomedical research, chemical processing, specialty electronics and specialty manufacturing—not just jewelry and catalytic converters. A major new source of demand is emerging from a rather unexpected place: the hydrogen industry.

Hydrogen Demand

Platinum catalysts are deployed in two key applications—electrolysers and hydrogen (H2) fuel cells—which feed into power generation and the fuel cell electric vehicle market.

The metal is at the core of most proton exchange membrane applications—specifically used for splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen—as the metal provides a highly reactive surface area that can withstand corrosive conditions. The PEM is coated with platinum at the cathode in order to strip the hydrogen of electrons to produce electricity.

Depending on the size of the engine, there are between?30-60 grams?of platinum in each fuel cell needed to power a hydrogen vehicle, whereas a gasoline engine catalytic convertor would only use about 5 grams.

In fact, the World Platinum Investment Council sees the hydrogen industry as possibly the largest platinum demand segment by 2040, especially as hydrogen is expected to replace diesel in heavy transport in the U.S. and in Europe.

Pure-Play ETFs

There are three pure-play platinum ETFs available in the U.S. market: the abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT), the GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM) and the iPath?Series B Bloomberg Platinum Subindex Total Return?ETN (PGM).

Platinum ETFs Comparison

None of the ETFs hold shares of platinum mining companies, but rather the metal itself via physical possession or contracts.

PPLT is the proverbial veteran, having launched back in 2010. It has assets under management of $939.18 million and offers the highest daily volume and tightest spread of all three ETFs.

It prices platinum off the London Bullion Market Authority spot price and is a grantor trust, which means the fund holds physical metal in its vaults in Zurich and London and then administers the buying, stocking and sale of that supply on behalf of the trust’s owners. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.60%.

PLTM is also legally structured as a grantor trust, with physical platinum held in a London vault that is inspected twice a year. It’s not allowed to hold derivatives. Its expense ratio is slightly lower than PPLT’s, at 0.50%, and has been operating since January 2018, with significantly lower trading volume.

Unlike the other two ETFs, PGM is structured as an exchange-traded note. As is the case with most ETNs, it invests in futures contracts that track the price of the underlying, as opposed to holding it in physical form.

PGM tracks Bloomberg’s Platinum Subindex, with its segment benchmark being the LBMA platinum spot price. Though it has the lowest expense ratio, at 0.45%, PGM has a very low, rather illiquid, daily volume. It has performed better than its two competitors in a one-year comparison.

PGM

Interesting Setup

There are now 300 green hydrogen projects under construction worldwide. This fall, seven to 10 public/private hydrogen hubs in various regional locations are set to be chosen by the Department of Energy and given a total of $8.5 billion in subsidies in 2024. Expect this to bid up platinum demand in a new structural way.

In contrast, South Africa’s electrical grid appears to be heading into another period of crisis. Eskom is facing strikes or much higher labor costs. Last week, Eskom’s former head, Andre de Ruyter, told the government in an affidavit that, in his estimation, the company loses $54 million per month to corruption.?

Two days ago, South Africa’s president ordered 880 army personnel to be stationed at power stations to reduce theft and sabotage at the state-owned utility.

Hopefully this scrutiny will keep operations limping through the months of June, July and August. Winter is coming in the southern hemisphere and those are the months of peak electrical use.

Despite a recent peak on April 21, platinum has seen a vigorous bounce since May 4. More importantly, it has just the kind of supply/demand setup that typically drives a long-term rally.


<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Platinum: Rarer Than Gold, Looking to Shine

After a dull decade, PPLT is glimmering as deficit approaches.


ETF.com

by Andrew Hecht

Jan 18, 2023


https://www.etf.com/sections/news/platinum-rarer-gold-looking-shine


In 2021, the worldwide platinum supply was 6.2 million ounces. In 2022, it dropped to 5.22 million. Gold mine supplies were 3,065 metric tons or over 98.5 million ounces. In 2022, production likely exceeded 3,000 tons. Gold is a rare precious metal, but platinum is far rarer, with less than 6% of the annual gold mine supply

Platinum jewelry and investment demand have been a significant part of the demand side of the metal’s fundamental equation.

Meanwhile, platinum has many industrial applications because of its resistance to tarnishing and corrosion, its malleability and ductility, and its density and high melting point. Gold melts at 1,948 F, while platinum melts at 3,215 F.

The high melting point makes platinum a critical requirement for catalysts that refine oil, petrochemicals and automobile catalytic converters. The electronics industry uses platinum for computer hard disks and thermocouples. Optical fibers, LCDs, turbine blades, spark plugs, pacemakers and dental fillings require platinum. Platinum compounds are essential for chemotherapy drugs and medical imaging equipment.

Platinum Suppliers

South Africa is, by far, the world’s leading platinum-producing country, with Russia the second top producer. South Africa’s output is more than five times that of Russia’s. Zimbabwe is the third leading producer.

Output in South Africa and Zimbabwe comes from primary mines, while in Russia, it is a byproduct of copper and nickel mines in Siberia’s Norilsk region. Platinum is a small market, so even marginal supply changes can dramatically impact prices. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and Russian retaliation could impact platinum supplies in 2023.

Lagging Gold

Platinum once had the nickname “rich person’s gold” because it commanded a premium over its precious cousin.

">abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) tracks the precious metal’s price. While the most direct investment route for platinum is via the physical market for bars and coins or the NYMEX futures that provide a delivery mechanism, PPLT holds physical platinum bullion.

At around $99 per share on Jan. 16, PPLT had $939.2 million in assets under management and traded an average of over 135,000 shares daily. PPLT charges a 0.60% expense ratio and is a liquid product that investors and traders can access via their standard stock market portfolios.

PPLT eliminates the need for storing physical metal and does not require the original and variation margin required by the futures market.

Platinum: Rare, Precious, Industrial

In 2021, the worldwide platinum supply was 6.2 million ounces. In 2022, it dropped to 5.22 million. Gold mine supplies were 3,065 metric tons or over 98.5 million ounces. In 2022, production likely exceeded 3,000 tons. Gold is a rare precious metal, but platinum is far rarer, with less than 6% of the annual gold mine supply

Platinum Suppliers

Lagging Gold

The quarterly chart above, dating back to the mid-1970, shows that nearby platinum futures traded mainly at a premium to nearby gold futures until 2015. Platinum reached a record high against gold at an over $1,100 premium in 2008.

Over the past eight years, gold outperformed platinum, with its premium passing $1,000 in 2020. On Jan. 16, February gold futures were $845 per ounce, more expensive than April platinum futures. Platinum has become less precious and gold more over the past years.

Less Liquidity, More Volatility

As of Jan. 13, the total number of open long and short positions in the COMEX gold futures market was 499,412 contracts. Each futures contract represents 100 ounces of gold, making the open interest 49.9 million ounces with a value of more than $95.7 billion at $1,917 per ounce.

NYMEX platinum futures open interest was at the 72,101-contract level. With 50 ounces per contract, the total number of platinum long and short positions in the futures market was 3.61 million ounces, worth $3.86 billion at $1,071 per ounce.

Platinum futures are far less liquid than gold futures. Illiquidity can lead to increased volatility as bids to buy often disappear when prices fall, and offers to sell can evaporate during price rallies. Daily historical gold futures volatility stood at the 13.7% level on Jan. 16, while the metric in platinum futures was at the 22.7% level.

A Deficit & Potential Upside

Higher volatility and less liquidity could ignite an exciting rally in the platinum market in 2023, and supply and demand fundamentals favor the upside. The World Platinum Investment Council recently forecast that the platinum market will move from a surplus in 2022 to a 303,000 ounce deficit in 2023.

If platinum is going to rally, PPLT will go along for the bullish ride.

The chart above shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs in PPLT since early September 2022.

In 2022, nearby platinum futures posted an 11% gain, outperforming gold, silver and palladium, the other platinum group metal that trades in the futures arena.

Platinum could continue to be a hidden gem in the precious metals sector in 2023, and the PPLT will move with the metal’s price.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery Amid Tariff Fears


Bloomberg

by Jack Ryan and Jack Farchy

January 31, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-plans-4-billion-gold-181226432.html


(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. will deliver gold bullion valued at more than $4 billion against futures contracts in New York in February, at a time when surging prices and the threat of import tariffs are fueling a worldwide dash to ship metal to the US.

The bank, which is by far the world’s biggest bullion dealer, was one of several institutions to declare plans on Thursday to deliver bullion against contracts traded on CME Group’s Comex that will expire in February. The delivery notices — which total 30 million troy ounces of gold — were the second largest ever in bourse data going back to 1994.

Fears of imminent tariffs on imports following the election of US President Donald Trump have caused prices for gold futures on Comex to surge over spot prices in London. Spot prices shot to record highs this week, but the additional premium on Comex has created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity for the handful of banks that can quickly fly bullion between key trading hubs.

Similar pricing dynamics have emerged in other Comex contracts too, and the disparity has become so large that traders have started flying silver into the country. The precious metal is usually too cheap and bulky to justify the cost of airfreight, and one industry veteran says it’s the first time they’ve seen it happen.

While millions of ounces of gold trade on Comex every day, typically only a small fraction of that goes to physical delivery, with most long positions being rolled over or closed out before they expire.

The exchange is often used to hedge positions in London, the largest trading hub, with banks offsetting longs with paper short positions in New York. Since the day of the US election though, physical inventories in the exchange’s depositories have swelled by 13 million ounces, around $38 billion of gold.

It is unclear whether JPMorgan or the other banks were delivering bullion physically to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, or were simply using the deliveries to exit existing short positions. JPMorgan and exchange owner CME Group Inc. declined to comment.

JPMorgan issued delivery notices for 1.485 million ounces of gold to meet physical delivery for the February gold 100-ounce contract, with deliveries on Feb 3. That accounted for roughly half the total to be delivered, with Deutsche Bank AG, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc making up the bulk of the rest.

Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and Goldman declined to comment.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> How to Protect Yourself From the Tech Bubble Bursting


By James Rickards

January 29, 2025


https://dailyreckoning.com/how-to-protect-yourself-from-the-tech-bubble-bursting/


How to Protect Yourself From the Tech Bubble Bursting

In the 1920s, Radio Corporation of America (RCA) was the hottest stock in the world.

Radio was cutting-edge tech, and RCA was dominant in the sector. The company was the largest manufacturer of radio sets and operated the largest broadcasting company, NBC. They owned key patents and had attracted many of the country’s best engineers.

In 1921 RCA shares traded as low as $1.50 (split-adjusted). By 1929 RCA rose to a peak of $549. A 352x return.

At its highs in 1929 RCA was trading at a P/E of 72x. Speculation had driven the price far beyond rational levels.

The bubble popped in 1929, and by 1932 RCA shares were trading at $15. That’s still a 10x return over 11 years, but the majority of investors had bought in at much higher prices. The use of margin borrowing was commonplace, and added fuel to the fire (sound familiar?).

Of course, we also saw a similar mania during the dot-com bubble. Cisco, Intel, and a few other tech leaders soared to unimaginable heights, then crashed back down to Earth.

You could say RCA was the Cisco of the Roaring ‘20s. And possibly the Nvidia of its time.

Is DeepSeek the Pin?

China’s new AI model DeepSeek R1 has the potential to be the pin that pricks the AI bubble. But it hasn’t happened yet.

On Monday, Jan. 27, Nvidia shares fell 17% after the market had digested China’s AI developments.

But yesterday shares rebounded by almost 9%. The dip was bought, for now at least.

I don’t know if this Chinese AI model will be the catalyst that ends the AI mania. But the bubble will inevitably end.

The market is poised for a crash, it only requires the right catalyst. Something frightening. A bank run, financial crisis, war, or even an AI breakthrough from our primary competitor.

Whether this latest Chinese AI model is that catalyst remains to be seen. But the 17% one-day drop in Nvidia shares does demonstrate that this market is easily spooked.

Profits (and Risks) Concentrated

The rise of AI in America has severely concentrated market risk. Even before the AI boom, markets were already heavily tilted towards big tech.

Today it’s far more pronounced. Anyone investing in the S&P 500 has more money in the Mag 7 stocks than they do in the bottom 400 companies put together. These 7 big tech firms make up about 34% of the entire S&P 500.

This is what happens during bubbles. A handful of companies dominate the market.

Make no mistake, these periods are driven by real advances. But they inevitably get out of control. It has happened with every major technological development. Railroads, internet, crypto, and now AI.

Anyone who has studied manias can clearly recognize the signs. Problem is, it’s difficult to know exactly when it will end. But judging by the market’s recent action, we’re getting closer.

Go Analog to Hedge Digital

If you own almost any American stock market index, you likely have plenty of exposure to Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and the rest of the Magnificent 7.

Now is not a time to jump into these names as the tech sector remains vulnerable. I much prefer to buy areas the rest of the market is ignoring. Gold, silver, miners, oil and gas, residential real estate. Hard assets.

Despite all the hype around this tech cycle, we are still entering a hazardous monetary period. The U.S. and much of the world have entered into debt spiral territory. Once debt/GDP broaches 120%, as it did recently in the U.S., it almost always leads to a debt or monetary crisis. Even in a best case it leads to a prolonged period of slow growth, which is also poison for stocks.

AI is powerful, but it cannot save us from mathematics. So if you don’t have any, go buy some hard assets. The easiest place to start is gold and silver coins. I suggest that everyone should have 10% of their portfolio in these assets. They remain the ultimate diversifiers.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Central Banks Back Up the Bullion Trucks


by Adam Sharp

Daily Reckoning

December 12, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/central-banks-back-up-the-bullion-trucks/


Central Banks Back Up the Bullion Trucks

Beep–beep–beep. Central bankers are once again “backing up the truck” to buy gold.

The World Gold Council (WGC) recently released its central bank gold statistics for October 2024.

The chart below shows purchases (blue) and sales (purple):





Source: World Gold Council

October was the highest net purchase month in 2024, with central banks purchasing a sizable 60 tonnes.

It’s worth noting that there were almost zero sales during the month. Up until October, every month in 2024 had substantial buys and sells.

Through Q3, central banks have reported an impressive 694 tonnes of gold purchases. And that’s almost certainly an understatement because we don’t truly know how much gold China, Russia, and other countries from that bloc are purchasing. The true number for 2024 could easily be near 1,400 tonnes or higher.

Annual gold production from mines is around 3,000 tonnes, so this is a substantial percentage of new supply. At this rate, central banks alone could be buying up to 45% of newly mined gold this year.

Here’s another chart from the WGC’s recent central bank report, showing updated year-to-date net purchases and sales.





Once we consider that China and Russia are likely buying far more gold than reported here, this is a very interesting chart indeed.

The largest BRICS countries are gobbling up gold like we’re on the verge of something major.

Poland, Turkey, Czech Republic, and Hungary stand out as the only NATO countries on gold-buying sprees. They happen to be the most nationalist members of NATO. No coincidence there.

And the largest gold sellers, the Philippines and Thailand happen to be major U.S. allies in Asia. These two countries are clearly still in the “king dollar” camp and are not yet buying into gold mania. Either that, or they desperately need the cash.

Confiscating Russian Assets

U.S. and EU leaders have long discussed the possibility of using more than $300 billion of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.

Well, it’s finally happening. On December 11th, UPI reported that the first $20 billion has been transferred to a Ukrainian account.

The United States has given Kyiv a $20 billion loan funded by Russian assets frozen since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago.

The disbursement was announced Tuesday by the U.S. Treasury, whose secretary, Janet Yellen, said in a statement that the funds “will provide Ukraine a critical infusion of support as it defends its country against an unprovoked war of aggression.”

This action, while seemingly small in scope, is a primary driver of central bank gold demand. The trend of de-dollarization truly picked up steam in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, which prompted the confiscation of more than $300 billion of Russian reserve assets.

As we have discussed extensively, this was a key turning point for the world monetary system. All of a sudden, central banks no longer saw their dollar reserves as risk-free assets. Overnight they became risk-laden.

At the time Russia invaded Ukraine, gold was trading around $1,860/oz. It is now up 44% from that point. An absolutely massive move in such a short period.

As we discussed in Metal Mania Starts Soon, this move has almost exclusively been driven by central bank demand.

“There’s rich irony in the fact that the primary gold bulls today aren’t individual investors, it’s the guys running the fiat printers. This is an insider buy signal at a global scale. And these aren’t fickle day traders in for a quick flip. These central banks have a new reserve policy, and it appears to heavily favor gold.”

I don’t see central banks slowing their buying pace anytime soon. The world’s monetary order is shifting, and at times like these, the safest thing to buy is an apolitical hard currency: gold.

Eventually, retail and professional investors will catch on to the trend, and then we’ll be off to the races. At that point, I believe silver will set for a big move-up.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Demand From Russia Could Add to Silver’s Upside


VettaFi

by Ben Hernandez

October 8, 2024


https://www.etftrends.com/gold-silver-investing-channel/demand-russia-could-add-silvers-upside/


Silver prices are up over 35% this year and could continue climbing. Global demand can further prop up prices and in the case of Russia, could add to the metal’s upside.

The Jerusalem Post noted that Russia could be changing its precious metals strategy, which could benefit silver due to increased demand. Silver could become a significant asset for the county’s wealth fund.

“According to a report released by Interfax this week and cited by Bloomberg, Russia’s Draft Federal Budget outlines plans to significantly bolster its holdings in precious metals over the coming years,” the report said. “Notably, the budget includes plans to acquire gold, platinum, palladium, and, for the first time, silver.”

As mentioned, silver’s gains could be a byproduct of gold’s rise this year. Gold itself is up close to 30%, but silver is also benefiting from its industrial usage as a key component in clean energy technology. That said, more countries like Russia are taking notice.

“The inclusion of silver in the State Fund’s acquisition strategy marks a departure from recent trends,” the report added. “While central banks around the globe, particularly Russia, have set records in gold purchases following international sanctions, silver has largely remained off their radar. This latest development suggests that silver’s role in Russia’s financial strategy may be evolving.”

If silver prices continue to exhibit upside, investors will want to obtain exposure. One easy way is via the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). The fund provides exposure to the precious metal without the additional hassle of storing it. It invests in unencumbered and fully allocated London good delivery silver bars. Additionally, shareholders can redeem their shares for physical bullion anywhere in the world (subject to certain minimum conditions) if they want a more tangible investment experience.

Combine Silver and Gold Exposure

As mentioned, gold has had a serendipitous rise higher this year alongside silver. Investors may want to add gold as a store of value and safe haven asset along with silver’s duality as a precious metal while also serving as an industrial metal. To that end, investors don’t have to maintain separate positions in both. They can look to funds that combine exposure like the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF).

PSLV is a closed-end trust that invests in unencumbered and fully allocated physical gold and silver bullion in LGD bar form. Overall, the goal of CEF is to provide a secure, convenient, and exchange traded investment alternative for investors who want to hold physical gold and silver without the inconvenience typical of a direct investment in physical bullion. Investing in shares of the fund also allows for higher liquidity as opposed to selling physical bullion at a local exchange.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Solid-State EV Batteries Could Drive Silver Demand: How to Invest


August 30, 2024

Written by Ebube Jones for Barchart


https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/solid-state-ev-batteries-could-drive-silver-demand-how-invest


The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is charging ahead, and a critical new player might soon steal the spotlight: solid-state batteries. Samsung's recent breakthrough in silver-based solid-state battery technology could not only transform the EV landscape, but also send shockwaves through the silver market These batteries promise a 600-mile range on a single charge, a 20-year lifespan, and a mere 9-minute charging time. With an energy density of 500 Wh/kg, nearly double that of current mainstream EV batteries, this technology could revolutionize the industry.

The potential impact on demand for silver is substantial. Estimates suggest that each solid-state battery cell could require approximately 5 grams of silver, with a typical 100 kWh battery pack potentially using up to 1 kg of silver. If 20% of global car production adopts this technology, it could translate to an annual silver demand of 16,000 metric tons.

For investors looking to capitalize on yet another expected source of rising silver demand, two silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stand out: the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR). These ETFs closely track the price of silver, and provide a convenient way to gain exposure to the precious metal without the hassle of storing and insuring physical bullion.

Let's examine these ETFs more closely and explore how they could help you ride the wave of the silver surge.

iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a prominent exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to provide investors with a cost-effective way to gain exposure to the price of silver. Managed by BlackRock (BLK) Financial Management, SLV was launched on April 21, 2006, and is structured as a grantor trust. This structure means that each share of the ETF represents a fractional undivided beneficial interest in the net assets of the trust, which primarily consists of physical silver bullion held in a vault by JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the custodian institution.

SLV tracks the price of silver as determined by the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) Silver Price, offering investors a direct play on thesilver marketwithout the complexities of futures contracts. This physically backed methodology eliminates issues such as contango and backwardation, which can affect ETFs that derive their value from futures contracts. SLV has total assets under management (AUM) of approximately $13.57 billion, with a relatively low annual expense ratio of 0.50%.

Over the past year, SLV has returned 17.9%, and is up 23% on a YTD basis. With the shares down 9% from May highs, now could be an appealing entry point for the next leg higher.

With average volume of 16 million shares and an active options market, SLV offers plenty of liquidity for both short-term speculators and long-term investors.

As silver demand looks set to rise, thanks in part to tech innovations like Samsung's solid-state EV batteries, SLV could be a savvy pick for investors looking to capitalize on higher prices for the industrial metal. Given its straightforward structure and robust volume, SLV stands out as a compelling option for those eager to capitalize on these exciting trends.

abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR)

The abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) is another great choice for investors who want to get in on the silver action. Just like SLV, SIVR offers a simple and affordable way to invest in silver without the fuss of handling the physical metal or diving into the futures market. This ETF is backed by real silver bullion that's kept safe and sound in vaults.

In terms of performance, SIVR has gained 22.8% YTD, and 17.8% over the past year, highlighting its potential as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. However, like many commodity-based investments, SIVR's performance can be volatile, and its one-year return contrasts with a longer-term annualized return of 3.2% over the past decade.

SIVR is designed to closely follow the spot price of silver, minus the trust's expenses, which are pretty low at just 0.30%. This makes it a great pick for investors who want to keep costs down. The fund has been around since 2009 and is managed by abrdn PLC, with a hefty $1.37 billion in assets under management. This impressive AUM shows just how much investors are digging silver these days, both as a precious metal and an industrial powerhouse.

That said, with SIVR's daily volume around 765,000 shares and a somewhat thinly traded options market, speculators in search of a more active trade may prefer the higher-volume SLV.

For those looking to add some diversity to their portfolios with a focus on silver, SIVR provides a straightforward and efficient way to get in on the action.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the rise of silver solid-state batteries in the EV industry could be a game-changer for silver demand, and a compelling opportunity for investors. With ETFs like SLV and SIVR offering convenient and cost-effective exposure to the silver market now might be the perfect time to consider adding some silver to your portfolio. Whether you're in search of a currency hedge, or simply betting on rising industrial demand for the precious metal, these ETFs provide a straightforward way to potentially profit from silver's promising trajectory.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> A surging U.S. dollar is hammering emerging-market stocks and metals. Watch out.

Overbought dollar could lead to trend change, with knock-on effects for other assets, analyst says


Market Watch

By William Watts

Nov. 14, 2024


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-surging-u-s-dollar-is-hammering-emerging-market-stocks-and-metals-watch-out-e9be2759


The dollar is on a tear.

The U.S. dollar remains an unabashed beneficiary of Donald Trump’s presidential-election win — and its relentless rise is causing significant pain for some emerging-market assets and commodities.

It also sets the stage for further volatility if traders decide the dollar rally has gone too far, too fast.

“The dollar is overbought and challenging resistance while several metals and emerging markets (EM) are oversold and trying to hold above key support,” said Kevin Dempter, analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, in a Thursday note.

“We’ll be watching how they respond to their overbought and oversold conditions closely. A strong response to the overbought condition in the dollar will likely lead to a bullish trend change and vice versa for the metals and EM,” he said.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, jumped 2.1% from election day through Wednesday’s close, trading at its highest in a year. The index, heavily weighted toward the euro and Japanese yen, has rallied more than 6% since late September, when Treasury yields began rising in response to both strong economic data and expectations for a Trump victory that could lead to larger fiscal deficits, more inflationary pressure and fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar rally has continued, in a move partly attributed to those factors and to expectations that wide-ranging tariffs on imports would boost demand for the U.S. currency relative to its peers.

See: Another Trump presidency could be a boon for the dollar — but some expect a bumpy ride

Broadly speaking, a rapidly strengthening dollar can cause pain for emerging markets, sucking away foreign investment and capital. It also makes it more difficult for emerging-market borrowers to pay dollar-denominated debts. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund fell 4.7% from Election Day through Wednesday’s close and is down 8.8% from its recent peak on Oct. 7.

U.S. stocks have soared, outpacing developed and emerging markets alike. The S&P 500 on Monday closed above the 6,000 milestone for the first time, after it, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite, last week saw their biggest weekly gains of 2024. The S&P 500 remains up more than 25% in the year to date.

A stronger dollar can also be a weight on commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. Copper futures have dropped 8.7% since Election Day and are down more than 21% from a record high set earlier this year, having suffered a retreat on disappointment in growth in China and the country’s stimulus efforts.

Other industrial metals have also suffered, while gold has pulled back after setting a series of records this year.

Commodities Corner: Why gold prices are now dropping on the heels of Trump’s win

Gold miners, tracked by the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF GDX, have retreated sharply, turning deeply oversold and approaching support at the 200-day moving average, Dempter said. A break below that support level, which stood at $35.19 Thursday, according to FactSet, would be a signal to start rotating out, he said.

The rising dollar has battered oil futures, which have also been contending with weak China demand and rising production outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Meanwhile, Asia stands to suffer the most if the dollar continues its upside tear, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. A surging dollar has battered the region before, slamming local-currency debt, which he described as the backbone of Asia’s emerging markets.

Some relief may be in store, however, if the dollar sticks to its pattern of seasonal weakness in December — a scenario that Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, sees as likely. He noted that December has been the worst month of the year for the ICE U.S. Dollar Index over the last 10 years, with an average decline of 0.95%.

“Overall, the key takeaway is that despite this ongoing downtrend over the last month, EEM is likely to stabilize in December as [the] U.S. dollar begins a month-long retreat,” he said. The two key areas to watch for the emerging-markets ETF, he said, are support at $42.50 and, below that, $41.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> The Golden Rule Is Real


By James Rickards

October 28, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/the-golden-rule-is-real/


The Golden Rule Is Real

There’s so much to discuss right now, from the upcoming election to geopolitical instability. But today I want to talk about gold. I call it the once — and future — money.

The use of gold as money existed from antiquity until gold backing broke down entirely in 1971. Still, central banks and finance ministries hold over 37,000 metric tonnes of gold in reserve.

Why? The answer is that gold is still at the base of global monetary systems. It’s simply the case that no government wants to admit this because the shortage of gold relative to bank notes would be exposed if they did.

But gold is coming to the fore of the monetary system again. Central banks are buying gold as fast as they can. Let’s look at some pertinent data before turning to the key geo-economic trends that will drive the dollar price of gold much higher in the near future.

The dollar price of gold today is $2,754 per ounce (subject to the usual daily fluctuations). As recently as Nov. 3, 2022, gold was $1,630. That’s a 69% gain in under two years. Gold was $1,375 per ounce in early June 2019.

That means the dollar price of gold has doubled in just over five years.

Most of the gains over that period have occurred in the past year. Gold was still $1,845 in October 2023. Whether we consider a multiyear trend or a more recent trend, gold has moved steadily higher with dramatic momentum lately.

There’s a simple but important bit of math behind these price moves that investors should understand. It’s the key to making huge profits in gold in the months ahead.

Investors tend to focus on the dollar price of gold and to analyze the price in round numbers. That makes sense.

If gold goes up $100 per ounce and you own 500 ounces, that’s a $50,000 profit. Another $100 per ounce gain means another $50,000 profit. That’s real money for you.

What investors may not realize at first is that each $100 gain (and $50,000 profit) is easier than the one before.

That’s because each gain is measured in constant $100 increments, but the measurement begins from a higher base. A constant dollar gain is a smaller percentage of an expanding base so it’s easier to achieve in percentage terms.

For example, if the price goes from $2,500 to $2,600 per ounce, that’s a 4% gain. But if the price goes from $2,900 to $3,000 per ounce (same $100 gain), that’s a 3.5% gain. Obviously, a 3.5% gain is easier to pick up than a 4.0% gain, but it’s the same $100 gain and $50,000 profit in your pocket.

This dynamic is even more dramatic if we look at $1,000 price increases. (That means $500,000 in profits if you own 500 ounces). When the price moves from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce, that’s a 50% gain.

But when the price moves from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000, that’s only an 11% gain. Same $1,000 per ounce gain and same $500,000 in profit, but a much easier hurdle to move 11% compared with 50%.

The math is obvious, but the psychology is not. And investor psychology is the engine that will drive gold prices to much higher levels faster than most investors can imagine.

Below, I show you why gold is poised to blast off. Read on.


Gold Is on the Launchpad

By Jim Rickards

The last time gold was taken seriously as a monetary asset was in the mid-1970s. The last time that retail investors had much appetite for gold investing was in the early 1980s. Gold hit $800 in January 1980. That was the all-time high at the time. Gold was flat to down from 1981–1999, hitting $250 per ounce in 1999 at the end of a 20-year bear market.

From there, gold reached a new high of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011, a 670% gain in 12 years. Then gold fell into a second bear market, falling $850 to $1,050 per ounce in December 2015. That was a 45% crash from the 2011 high.

If you treat the 1999 low of $250 per ounce as a baseline, the 2011–2015 crash was actually 51.5%: (850 / 1650 = 51.5%). That calculation is important. Jim Rogers, the greatest commodity trader of all time, told me that no commodity goes to the moon without a 50% correction along the way. Gold had its 50% correction in 2015. Now it’s off to the moon.

The point is that despite two bull markets (1971–1980 and 1999–2011) and two bear markets (1981–1999 and 2011–2015), gold investing never captured the popular imagination in the way that housing did in the early 2000s or that stocks have today.

Individual investors have been in and out of the market and investors from the early 2000s have done quite well. Hedge funds trade momentum but get out at the first speed bump. They don’t think of gold any differently than they do soybeans or oil. It’s just a trade.

The institutional investor footprint in the gold market is almost non-existent. From an investment perspective, gold has been an orphan asset with a few supporters but not many. That’s all about to change radically. Here’s why:

The first key to gold’s coming surge is the role of central banks. Retail and institutional investors may not be that interested in gold, but central banks definitely are. In recent years, central bank holdings of gold have surged from 33,000 metric tonnes to over 37,000 metric tonnes, a 12.0% gain measured by weight.

This increase has been heavily concentrated in two countries — Russia and China. Russian gold reserves have risen from 600 metric tonnes in 2008 to 2,335 metric tonnes today, a gain of 1,735 metric tonnes or nearly 200% from the 2008 base.

China also had about 600 metric tonnes in 2008 and today has 2,264 metric tonnes, a 275% gain. (There is good reason to conclude that China has undisclosed gold reserves, which would make those total and percentage gains ever higher).



The Big 10 holders of gold include the usual suspects — The U.S., Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and Japan. But the list also includes some newcomers such as Russia, China and India.

Other important countries are vying for a place in the global gold club. In the second quarter of 2024 (most recent available data), Poland added 18.7 tonnes, India added 18.7 tonnes, Turkey added 14.7 tonnes, Uzbekistan added 7.5 tonnes and the Czech Republic added 5.89 tonnes.

Why the large gold holdings and why the rapid additions to gold reserves if gold is not a monetary asset? The question answers itself. Gold is a monetary asset.

Central bank net buying is equivalent to about 20% of annual gold mining output. That doesn’t indicate a gold shortage, but it does put a firm floor under the dollar price of gold. That creates what we call an asymmetric trade.

On the upside, the sky’s the limit, but on the downside, the central banks have your back to some extent because they will definitely buy the dips to increase their gold hoards. That’s the best type of trade to be in.

So the stage is set. The simple math of easier percentage gains for constant dollar gains is the dynamic that can set off a buying frenzy and lead to super-spikes in the dollar price of gold. Central bank buying causes a relentless increase in the dollar price of gold and offers limited downside because they will buy the dips. All that is needed to set off the super-spike is an unexpected development that is not already priced in.

Now we have it. The BRICS met in Kazan, Russian Federation last week. The BRICS have a rotating presidency and this year Putin is president of the BRICS. The world is waiting for the announcement of a new BRICS currency. That may come in time, but not yet. The new currency may be 10 years away.

What happened instead was that Putin and the BRICS announced a new blockchain-based digital ledger to record trade payments using existing currencies of the BRICS members. The significance of this system (tentatively named “BRICS Clear”) is that there are no dollars involved and the secure payment channels are relatively safe from U.S. and EU sanctions.

Russia will sell oil to China for rubles, Brazil will sell aircraft to China for reais and India will sell technology to China for rupees and so on. (Alternatively, any BRICS member can elect to take the currency of any other BRICS member, all to be recorded on BRICS Clear).

Payments can be settled on a net basis instead of a gross basis. This means, for example, that Russia and China can trade goods and record payments. There will be “due to” and “due from” on the ledgers.

Those can be netted out with only the net amount changing hands. And this does not have to be done in real-time; it can be done monthly or quarterly. This greatly reduces the amount of payments and message traffic.

The central bank or commercial banks in each country can provide payments to local sellers in local currency while recording a due from the BRICS Clear ledger on its books.

That system can work well, but it leaves two issues unresolved compared to a single currency system. The first is stability in exchange rates while balances are left unsettled. The second is the overaccumulation of a certain currency by one party that may have limited use for that currency.

If you don’t want to take exchange rate risk, you can take your counterparty currency balances and buy gold. And if you have too much of a certain currency standing on your accounts, you can reduce the balance by buying gold.

The implications of this have not yet sunk into market pricing. It’s tantamount to an informal gold standard without fixed exchange rates. It relies on market forces (mostly denominated in U.S. dollars for now) and does not rely on huge hoards of freely convertible gold in central banks.

Still, it works. It positions gold as an anchor in a new international monetary system without the strictures of the classical gold standard.

The picture is now complete. Gold is on an upward path driven by central bank buying. Gold is poised to go much higher because the BRICS will use physical gold as their anchor instead of U.S. dollars. And investor psychology will cause a super-spike once the big dollar gains become a daily occurrence.

It’s a powder keg and the BRICS have just struck a match. The smartest move for everyday investors is to buy gold now before the fun really begins.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Palladium Price Spikes on US-vs-BRICS Bullion Battle


Bullion Vault

10/24/2024


https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/palladium-russia-brics-exchange-sanctions-102420241


GOLD BULLION rallied but missed setting a new record price for the 1st time in 7 sessions on Thursday as the USA called on its G7 partners to tighten precious metals sanctions against major-mining producer Russia while Moscow proposed a new bullion exchange to its BRICS partners at the group's 2024 summit.

The price of palladium spiked by almost 10% after Bloomberg reported the US Treasury asking other major Western powers to sanction supplies of the precious metal from Russia – source of 2/5ths of global mine output – as well as titanium, vital to the aeronautics industry, in action to try hurting the Kremlin's ongoing war in Ukraine.

Russia's Ministry of Finance meantime proposed " a mechanism for trading metals within the BRICS countries" with agreed "standards for the production and trade of bullion, accreditation of market participants [plus] clearing and auditing" – a role currently taken worldwide by London, UK.

Adding 6.4% for the day at this morning's London AM benchmark auction, the price of palladium then rose a further 2.7% in spot market trade to hit $1168 per Troy ounce – its highest since December last year.

Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 saw palladium prices leap on Western sanctions to hit all-time highs above $3400 per Troy ounce. But since then it has faced relentless and record levels of bearish palladium betting by speculators in derivatives exchange the CME's Nymex futures and options, thanks to its No.1 use – autocatalysts in gasoline engines – being projected to decline towards nothing as governments worldwide push targets for 'net zero' carbon emissions by 2030, 2050 or 2060.

Today's London 2pm benchmark palladium price put the precious metal almost 35% above August's 7-year low of $835.

"The transition to a more just world order is not proceeding smoothly," said Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, 700 kilometres east of Moscow, "retarded by forces accustomed to thinking and acting in the logic of dominating everything and everyone."

But while "Russia planned to use the BRICS summit to split the world," said the Foreign Ministry in Kyiv overnight, "it has once again found that the world majority remains on the side of Ukraine" after China's leader Xi Jinping, Brazil's Lula da Silva and India's Narendra Modi called instead for de-escalation and peace negotiations.

"We support dialogue and diplomacy, not war," said Modi at the BRICS event in Kazan, Russia.

Responding to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the government of the UK – where the City of London provides the global palladium market's central trading hub, as it does for gold, silver and platinum – imposed trade tariffs on Russian platinum and palladium inflows of 35% that May, hitting the cost but not banning imports.

But London's bullion market had already blocked new Russian supplies 1 month earlier, suspending the country's 2 state-owned platinum and palladium refineries from the LPPM's Good Delivery list of acceptable brands.

Last December palladium jumped the fastest since March 2020's rebound from the Covid pandemic crash after the UK government hit Russian metals – but not palladium itself – with fresh sanctions.

Gold meantime rebounded from yesterday's surprise gold price plunge on weak US economic data, but it failed to top Wednesday morning's new all-time record high of $2758 and then erased that rally to trade little changed for the week so far beneath $2730 per Troy ounce.

Silver prices also rallied but fell back to last weekend's levels, trading at $33.65 per Troy ounce as the BRICS meeting broke up.

Palladium's sister-metal platinum – still finding its largest single use in diesel-engine autocats but more widely used in other technologies including the growing hydrogen economy – rose to its highest in nearly 5 months at $1044 before dropping $20 to cut this week's gain to 1.6%.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Newmont - >>> The Top Gold Miner Is Struggling to Capitalize on Bullion’s Boom


Bloomberg

by Jacob Lorinc

October 25, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-miners-crippled-costs-risk-214107227.html


(Bloomberg) -- Gold prices are at record highs. But disappointing results at the world’s largest miner of the yellow metal signals companies may be struggling to take full advantage of sizzling demand.

Newmont Corp. shares posted their biggest daily drop since 1997 on Thursday, tumbling 15% after the Denver-based company posted earnings, revenue and profit margins that fell short of analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, dragged down by higher costs. The stock traded a further 3% lower on Friday, with top rivals Barrick Gold Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. also retreating.

Analysts had high hopes for the industry. Gold has surged more than 30% this year, while fuel prices — one of the miners’ key expenses — have been easing. But Newmont’s results revealed that big gold producers are still wrestling with inflationary pressures, especially regarding labor costs, that have lasted longer than expected.

“There’s a potential read-through here, assuming Newmont’s takeaways are accurate, that this is a risk factor for the industry,” said Josh Wolfson, a mining analyst with Royal Bank of Canada.

Newmont earned 80 cents a share, well short of the average estimate of 89 cents among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue of $4.61 billion also trailed estimates, as did its gross profit margin, which slipped below 50%.

The company said it spent more to dig up the precious metal at its mines in Australia, Canada, Peru and Papua New Guinea than in the previous quarter. Capital expenses rose 10% due to expansion projects in Australia and Argentina, while some of the company’s highest expenses came from major assets it picked up through last year’s $15 billion takeover of Newcrest Mining Ltd.

Some of those cost issues are specific to the company, and not necessarily indicative of a broader industry trend. Newmont is undertaking costly maintenance work at its Lihir mine in Papua New Guinea — a notoriously complex operation in a remote region — and it spent more to restart its Cerro Negro mine in Argentina after operations were paused due to the deaths of two workers in April.

But the company’s growing costs for workers could signal trouble across the industry.

“It’s the labor costs where we’re seeing that escalation,” Chief Executive Officer Tom Palmer told analysts in a conference call Thursday.

“Whether that be maintenance shutdowns, maintenance that you use to supplement your workforce, costs of running camps, costs of flying people to and from the camps — that’s where we’re seeing some escalation beyond what we’d assumed at the start of the year.”

Miners’ pitch to investors is that they can offer better returns than owning the metal, partly due to greater investment options and shareholder payouts, but the industry has often underperformed over the past 15 years as major expansions left producers with big debts and angry shareholders.

Newmont’s earnings also serve as a preview for Canada’s Barrick, which shares a giant mining complex with Newmont in Nevada. The Nevada mines produced less gold compared to the previous quarter.

Despite investor disappointment, the gold miners are still being helped by the bullion boom: Newmont posted its highest quarterly profit in five years, raking in $922 million. Analysts expect Newmont is on track to net $3.2 billion in profit this year — which would be a record for the company.

Even after this week’s plunge, Newmont’s shares are up 15% this year.

Barrick, Agnico and other big producers including AngloGold Ashanti Plc and Gold Fields Ltd. are also expected to rake in windfall returns by the end of the year.

“The street expectations were too high,” said Carey MacRury, a mining analyst at Canaccord Genuity who recommends investors buy the shares. “It was negative, no doubt, but I don’t think it’s as negative as what the market’s telling us today.”


<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Why Basel III regulations are poised to shake up the gold market

European banks face beefed up liquidity requirements under the “Net Stable Funding Ratio’ on Monday


MarketWatch

by Myra P. Saefong

June 26, 2021


(excerpt) ----> ...In its essence, Basel III is a multiyear regime change that aims to prevent another global banking crisis, by requiring banks to hold more stable assets and fewer ones deemed risky.

Under the new regime, physical, or allocated, gold, like bars and coins, will be reclassified from a tier 3 asset, the riskiest asset class, to a tier 1 zero-risk weight —putting it “right alongside with cash and currencies as an asset class,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group.

Since physical gold will have a risk-free status, this could cause banks around the world to continue to buy more, Koos said, adding that central banks already have stepped up purchases of physical gold to be held in the institutions’ vaults, and not held in unallocated, or paper form.

Allocated gold is owned directly by an investor, in physical form, such as coins or bars. Unallocated gold, or paper contracts, often are owned by banks, but investors are entitled to that gold, and avoid storage and delivery fees.

Under the new rules, paper gold would be classified as more risky than physical gold, and no longer counted as an asset equal to gold bars or coins. <<<


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-basel-iii-regulations-are-poised-to-shake-up-the-gold-market-11624561325



---

[gfp927z]

Costco gold - >>> Here’s one economic message from the Costco gold bar craze


Yahoo Finance

by Grace Williams

October 21, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-one-economic-message-from-the-costco-gold-bar-craze-133343363.html


It’s all about trust.

The nation may have left the gold standard behind in 1933, but Costco (COST) shoppers have proven that gold is a red-hot buy.

Sure, it’s an investment, but it’s also “reflecting this yearning for real money,” economist and senior fellow at the Independent Institute Judy Shelton told Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (video above; listen below). “Gold is kind of a surrogate for the real economy, and it represents commodities but also that traditional role of money you can trust.”

The wildly popular Costco bullion was introduced to warehouse club members last year via 24-karat 1 oz bars. The product has flown off the shelves, with Costco raking in a reported $200 million per month in gold bar sales. Demand has been so great that the retailer has begun to offer platinum bars.

According to Shelton, the gold rush at Costco likely has personal meaning to the financially skittish consumer. Over the past few years, consumers have become accustomed to watching inflation spike as high as 9% while the US dollar lost 20% of its purchasing power. This hasn't exactly stoked Americans' confidence.

Judy Shelton will be at Yahoo Finance's Invest conference in November. Register to attend here!

The sudden rise in gold’s popularity could also relate to consumers’ overall trust in the precious metal and what it represents. “It’s a meaningful unit of account. It works across borders,” she said. “It has universal value, and it’s highly recognized.”

Precious metals such as gold are currently having a solid ride. Year to date, gold prices are up 31.72% to $2,750 an ounce. Silver and platinum prices are up 41% and 3%, respectively.

UBS chief investment officer of the Americas, Solita Marcelli, said the gold price rally has further room to run, citing the potential for more interest rate cuts and worsening geopolitical tensions.

"Despite the rally, we think gold's hedging properties remain attractive. Alongside physical gold, investors may consider exposure through structured strategies, ETFs, or via gold miner equities. Investors unaccustomed to the volatility of individual commodities may also consider exposure via an actively managed strategy that seeks to deliver alpha over comparable passive indices," Marcelli wrote in a note to clients.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Costco’s Gold Bars Fly Off Shelves as Bullion Prices Smash Records


Bloomberg

by Yvonne Yue Li

October 7, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-gold-bars-fly-off-110021675.html


(Bloomberg) — Gold’s breathtaking surge this year to repeated record highs hasn’t stopped bullion from flying off shelves at Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) stores across the US.

Costco’s one-stop shopping convenience is bringing gold buying to the masses by offering prices that undercut traditional precious metals dealers and extra rewards for its most loyal customers. Add to that gold’s appeal as a safe haven and hedge against inflation, and it’s easy to see why bullion buyers are turning to the warehouse retailer.

“It’s a great experience overall,” said Sourav Sethia, a 33-year-old analytics engineer from New Jersey. “I get calls from Costco whenever gold bars arrive as I am a previous buyer. So whenever I see the price has pulled back, I rush to Costco to buy one.”

Sethia visited his local Costco with his parents on Sept. 28 while the store was promoting one ounce gold bars stamped to mark the Indian festival Diwali. A Costco greeter clutching a laminated paper sheet advertising the item was directing shoppers to the center of the store, where the gold is displayed in a glass case. A small sign showed the price — $2,699.99. While Sethia didn’t buy this time, he did purchase two bars at this location in the past four months to guard against inflation.

Sethia’s experience is reflective of a larger trend that’s driving shoppers to seek out gold at the big-box store even as prices of the precious metal hit all-time highs. While the retailer doesn’t disclose much about its gold sales, a Bloomberg survey revealed how hard it is for the company to keep shelves stocked with the precious metal. About 77% of surveyed Costco outlets that stock bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, based on calls to 101 stores in 46 states — all the stores surveyed had received fresh stock of the gold products in recent weeks.

Spot gold has jumped nearly 30% this year, successively hitting record highs. Its ferocious rally makes it not only one of the best-performing commodities, but also means that metal has outperformed US equities and bonds. The surge has been driven by its appeal as a haven asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty and its role as diversification play to safeguard wealth. It surpassed $2,600 an ounce last month, bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s shift to interest-rate cuts. Non-yielding gold tends to rise in a low-rate environment.

A flurry of buying from Costco is happening amid signs elsewhere that cash-strapped Americans are cashing in on gold’s rally. New York’s pawn shops and jewelers have seen a flood of sellers. Sales of American Eagle gold coins — a proxy for retail buying — tumbled 64% in the January-September period from a year earlier, according to US Mint data.

Costco is the “one bright spot” in the consumer gold-buying market, said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at Geneva-based MKS PAMP SA.

“There’s a whole new cohort of retail buyers,” she said. “We do think that’s positive in the medium to long term, given the fact that Costco has managed to bring in new buyers into the precious space.”

Costco started selling bullion in June 2023 in US stores and on its website. The Swiss-made 24 karat bars are small — about the size of those mini chocolate bars handed out on Halloween, but not as thick — and encased in cardboard-and-plastic packaging. While the retailer doesn’t disclose how much it sells, the buzz created by shoppers in person and on the Internet offers a snapshot of its popularity.

Costco customers, who pay membership fees, tend to have higher household incomes than those frequenting other retail chains. Those buying gold seem to be wooed by the ease of dealing with a big-box outlet to collect the longstanding store of wealth. Johnny Lee, a 40-year-old content creator from Los Angeles, bought gold bars from Costco twice in the past year: once for gifts and a second time “just for the excitement of it.”

“It’s easy to make a purchase knowing that there has been historical value in it,” Lee said, adding that he suspects many Costco shoppers are getting swept up by a trend. “I feel like people buying gold bars at Costco is kind of a symbol of how little folks know about buying gold in general.”

In a rare public comment about its bullion, Costco executives noted the popularity of its gold offerings during a September 2023 earnings call. In its fiscal first quarter, the company said it sold more than $100 million in gold bars — equal to about 51,740 ounces, based on calculations using average gold prices during that period.

Gold and silver sales continue to be “a meaningful part” of e-commerce sales growth, Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip said by email to Bloomberg.

“We are glad to be able to offer gold and silver items for our members,” he said. “It’s a great example of our merchants constantly finding new ways to deliver uniqueness and value.”

There are benefits buying from Costco. The retailer offers 2% cash rewards for using an affiliated Citi (C) credit card on purchases at Costco. Shoppers also get a 2% reward on purchases with an executive membership, which costs $130 a year. Costco was selling one ounce bullion bars on Sept. 28 for a 1.6% premium to spot gold’s price — below what precious metals retailers charge. Add a potential 4% in rewards, and Costco members get an even bigger break.

“It seemed like a too-good-to-be-true deal,” said Josh Young, who purchased a gold bar and coin from Costco in the past year. The Houston money manager said he purchased the items as insurance against rising geopolitical and financial risks, including “significant hyperinflation.”

“It’s physical and gold does have a long history of being a store of value even though there’s no cash flow from it,” Young, 41, said. “It’s a good personal diversifier.”

Costco’s precious-metals foray is well-documented online. Reddit forums share tips on which stores have inventory. Those who score show off their bounty on YouTube and swap stories on social media. California’s Angel Groff snapped up two gold bars from Costco last year for about $1,950 each, recording the online purchase for the 40,000 fans of her “midlifecrisisgirl” TikTok account.

“I bought it impulsively,” said the 42—year-old, who usually posts about jewelry and Hermes bags. “What’s the worst-case scenario? It’s a small way to diversify funds and if it goes well, it goes well. If it doesn’t, I can make jewelry out of it.”

Some followers called it a dumb move. Today, each bar is worth about $700 more.

Signs of robust bullion demand at Costco won’t move prices because sales volumes aren’t large enough, according to Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus.

Still, the buying can signal strong support for the metal.

“People discount retail activity because there’s an arrogance that thinks that retail is ‘dumb buying’ — I don’t agree with that,” said Matt Schwab of Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Quantix Commodities. Costco gold buying “can provide a form of constant support, akin to central bank buying.”

Costco’s offerings make gold ownership more accessible than ever, said Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, one of the top US precious metal retailers. He estimates that, outside of jewelry, less than 2% of Americans own gold and silver.

“Even an increase to 5% to 10% ownership would be dramatic — and would likely disrupt the market,” he said.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Tanzania orders gold dealers to reserve 20% for purchase by central bank


Reuters

September 28, 2024

News Africa Gold


https://www.mining.com/web/tanzania-orders-gold-dealers-to-reserve-20-for-purchase-by-central-bank/


Tanzania’s mining regulator has ordered all mining firms and traders exporting gold to allocate at least 20% of the commodity for sale to the central bank to bolster the bank’s move to diversify its foreign reserves.

The central Bank of Tanzania (BoT) began buying gold from local traders and miners in the last financial year that ended in June to boost its reserves amid depreciation pressure on the local currency, the shilling.

In the 12 months to June, the central bank bought 418 kg of gold to beef up its reserves and in the current financial year it intends to buy 6 metric tons of gold.

The regulator, the Tanzania Mining Commission, said late on Friday in a statement that the directive will take effect effectively on Oct. 1 as part of a newly enacted mining law.

Miners and traders, according to the statement, will be required to submit the reserved gold to two major mineral refineries, Eye of Africa Ltd in the capital Dodoma and Mwanza Precious Metals Refinery Ltd, located in the lake city of Mwanza in the north of the East African country.

“All payments will be done according to the Bank of Tanzania arrangements,” the statement said, without providing details on rates.

Tanzania’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $5.29 billion at the end of July, sufficient to cover 4.3 months of projected imports of goods and services.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Check out this graph showing the amount of precious metals derivatives held by commercial banks. It started moving up in 2019-21, and then exploded ~10 fold higher in 2022. These derivatives holders include JP Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, etc, and their sudden interest in precious metals coincided with gold's big rise in recent years. The chart below only goes to 2022, but the extremely high level of precious metals derivatives held by these banks has apparently continued -

>>> And that trend in precious metals has continued. According to the most recent OCC report, in the first quarter of 2024, federally-insured banks held $438.60 billion in precious metals contracts. That figure is at least 12 times greater than the amount the same banks held in precious metal contracts in any quarter from 2007 through 2018. <<<


Full post - https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175130195






---

[gfp927z]

Palladium - >>> Montana miner to lay off hundreds due to declining palladium prices


Associated Press

September 12, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/montana-miner-lay-off-hundreds-225135256.html


NYE, Mont. (AP) — The owner of the only platinum and palladium mines in the U.S. announced Thursday it plans to lay off hundreds of employees in Montana due to declining prices for palladium, which is used in catalytic converters.

The price of the precious metal was about $2,300 an ounce two years ago and has dipped below $1,000 an ounce over the past three months, Sibanye-Stillwater Executive Vice President Kevin Robertson said in a letter to employees explaining the estimated 700 layoffs expected later this year.

“We believe Russian dumping is a cause of this sharp price dislocation,” he wrote. “Russia produces over 40% of the global palladium supply, and rising imports of palladium have inundated the U.S. market over the last several years.”

Sibanye-Stillwater gave employees a 60-day notice of the layoffs, which is required by federal law.

Montana U.S. Sens. Steve Daines, a Republican, and Jon Tester, a Democrat, said Thursday they will introduce legislation to prohibit the U.S. from importing critical minerals from Russia, including platinum and palladium. Daines' bill would end the import ban one year after Russia ends its war with Ukraine.

The south-central Montana mine complex includes the Stillwater West and Stillwater East operations near Nye, and the East Boulder operation south of Big Timber. It has lost more than $350 million since the beginning of 2023, Robertson said, despite reducing production costs.

The company is putting the Stillwater West operations on pause. It is also reducing operations at East Boulder and at a smelting facility and metal refinery in Columbus. Leadership will work to improve efficiencies that could allow the Stillwater West mine to reopen, Robertson said.

The layoffs would come a year after the company stopped work on an expansion project, laid off 100 workers, left another 30 jobs unfilled and reduced the amount of work available for contractors due to declining palladium prices.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold skyrockets as stars align for Fed rate cuts


Reuters

September 13, 2024

by Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and Swati Verma


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-rallies-record-high-us-032818493.html


(Reuters) - Gold prices powered higher on Friday, beating record levels, as a boost in bullish momentum fueled by optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on the brink of trimming interest rates was catalyzed by fund inflows and a drop in the dollar.

Spot gold was trading at record levels, up 0.9% at $2,582.04 per ounce by 1:45 pm ET (1745 GMT).

U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher to $2,610.70.

Gold market bulls are locking in bullion prices surging to fresh records, with a milestone of $3,000 per ounce coming into focus, fired up by monetary easing by major central banks and a tight U.S. presidential election race.

The stars are aligned in favour of the gold and silver market bulls as the European Central Bank lowered its main interest rate this week, the Fed is likely to lower it next week and tame U.S. inflation data, Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, said.

Markets fully price a rate cut next week, with a 57% chance of 25-bps U.S. rate cut and a 43% chance of a 50-bps cut, the CME FedWatch tool showed. This would be Fed's first rate cut since 2020.

"The market is still expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by around 100 basis points by the end of the year, i.e. rates would have to be cut by 50 basis points at one of the two remaining meetings after September," Commerzbank analysts said.

"It is therefore likely due to these aggressive interest rate cut expectations for the coming months that the gold price is rising."

Further driving interest in bullion, the dollar fell on Friday to its lowest level this year against the Japanese yen. [USD/]

Global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds saw a fourth consecutive month of inflows in August, the World Gold Council said last week.

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF SPDR Gold Trust were at their highest levels since early January on Thursday. [GOL/ETF]

From the technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index currently at 69 suggests that the gold price is approaching the "overbought" territory, starting at 70.[TECH/C]

Palladium rose 2% to $1,067.43 and has surged about 17% so far this week.

Spot silver rose 2.3% to $30.61 and platinum added 2.4% to $1,000.57.

<<<



---

[NYBob]

DD....$PRECIOUS METALS - $Gold Breaking Out vs Commodities (Top Chart) As US Dollar Weakens (Bottom Chart)



$GOLD MINERS NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI



The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…

$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRqgjDx8fs4

Central Bank $Gold Buying Doubled in July
Mike Maharrey
September 3rd, 2024
·


https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/central-bank-gold-buying-doubled-in-july-003427

DD....$Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX:...

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/aris-mining-ARMN/stock-news/94431244/aris-mining-publishes-its-2023-sustainability-repo

DD....$Pelangio Exploration Inc. NEWS -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015670

DD....$Patagonia Gold Corp, formerly known as Hunt Mining Corp., is a Silver and Gold production company.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175046791

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172090585

$HGLD & $PGDC With One Of The Richest Highest Grade Silver Mine On Earth - Patagonia Gold
& Silver Mines Hard Asset Safety Bargain --

https://patagoniagold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Patagonia-Gold-Corporate-Presentation-Q4-2022-.pdf

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Patagonia-Gold-Corp.-HGLD-33022

https://www.patagoniagold.com

GOD BLESS

PS.
https://expose-news.com/2024/09/06/moderna-confirms-mrna-covid-vaccines-cause-cancer/

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/its-spreading-americas-top-oil-field-terrorized-armed-venezuela-gangs

[gfp927z]

Goldman - >>> Investors should 'go for gold' as Fed rate cut looms, Goldman says


Yahoo Finance

by Ines Ferré

Sep 3, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-should-go-for-gold-as-fed-rate-cut-looms-goldman-says-155551358.html


Investors should "go for gold" as the precious metal's stellar run isn't over, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.

On Tuesday, gold futures hovered above $2,515 per ounce. The precious metal is off its all-time high touched last month but still up nearly 22% year to date, making it the world's second-best-performing asset behind crypto.

"Our preferred near-term long is gold. It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM central bank buying," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday.

The firm maintains a 2025 target of $2,700 per ounce and issued a "long gold" recommendation.

Purchases by central banks, which hit a record in the first quarter of 2024, have been one of the biggest drivers of the precious metal's rise this year. BofA analysts estimate gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset, second only to the US dollar.

Geopolitical risks such the Israel-Hamas war and Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve of a September rate cut amid signs of a slowing labor market, have also buoyed prices.

"We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge," said Tom Bruni, head of market research at Stocktwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation.

Global physically backed gold ETFs have now seen inflows three months in a row as Western investors pile into gold, with North American activity outpacing Europe and Asia in July, according to the latest World Gold Council data.

In the near term, traders may be wondering if gold will succumb to a historically negative trend for assets this month. The yellow metal has declined every September since 2017, according to Bloomberg data.

Analysts expect the commodity's next catalyst will come when the Federal Reserve meets this month following a week of fresh labor data and a crucial monthly jobs report on Friday.

"Gold prices continue to hover at around $2,500/oz with focus primarily on the size of the expected upcoming Fed rate cut later this month," wrote JPMorgan analysts in a note on Tuesday.

As of early Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 31% probability of a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 basis points, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Why gold is outperforming nearly everything so far this year


Yahoo Finance

by Jared Blikre

Aug 28, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-is-outperforming-nearly-everything-so-far-this-year-100022695.html


Gold futures have been surfing record highs, with Monday's prices hitting $2,555.2 per ounce, sending the value of a 400 troy ounce gold bar to $1,022,080.

The yellow metal has forged meteoric gains this year, emerging as the world's second-best-performing asset next to crypto. Its 23% year-to-date gain edges out the megacap-loaded Nasdaq Composite — itself up a healthy 18%. (A proxy for the crypto market writ large, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW), is up 47% this year.)

According to BofA Global Research, gold funds just absorbed the largest inflows in four weeks, attracting $1.1 billion. Yet, the broader trend has actually seen $2.5 billion in outflows year to date, suggesting that underlying strength is coming from outside traditional fund flows.

Central banks — especially those of developing countries — have been buying the barbarous relic at a record clip. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have purchased 290 tonnes in the first quarter alone, beating out the prior Q1 record from 2023 and setting CBs on a path to record gold purchases in 2024 that are estimated to easily eclipse 1,000 tonnes.

"Not only is the long-standing trend in central bank gold buying firmly intact, it also continues to be dominated by banks from emerging markets," wrote the Gold Council.

In that regard, Turkey tops the buy list this year with 30 tonnes purchased in the first quarter — lifting its gold reserves to 570 tonnes. China bought 27 tonnes in Q1, making it the 17th consecutive quarter of purchases and also bringing its holdings to 2,262 tonnes. Other notable purchasers include India, Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, Oman, and Singapore.

The central bank buying spree has solidified gold's status as a reserve asset. According to BofA, gold has now surpassed the euro to become the world's largest reserve asset second only to the US dollar, representing 16% of the reserve pool.

The precious metal’s performance can be attributed to its unique position as a real asset with one of the lowest correlations to stocks across asset classes, making it a safe haven from market swings and inflation.

According to Tom Bruni, head of market research at StockTwits, in a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, "We're seeing gold being used as an uncertainty hedge."

Bruni also emphasized gold's appeal to traders due to its price action. "With gold breaking out above its 2011 highs, it's drawing significant attention from trend followers and technical analysts alike."

Investors looking for deep, liquid gold markets have a robust choice of futures markets, ETFs, and gold miner stocks and ETFs, which tend to be even more volatile than the underlying metal.

"The volatility in gold prices has made it a prime trading vehicle, whether through gold ETFs or mining stocks," said Bruni.

BofA separately highlighted how this latest gold rally isn't like the other advances this century, offering a tantalizing glimpse of future bullish potential.

The bank noted this is the third major gold advance in two decades, yet "households have missed this rally." The first two rallies — from 2004 to 2011, and from 2015 to 2020 — attracted big fund flows into gold ETFs. But over the last year, gold bullion and gold miner ETFs have shed $6.4 billion in assets, according to Bloomberg data and Yahoo Finance calculations.

But if last week's large gold inflows were to gain momentum, that trend could signal a perfect storm of retail, institutional, and central bank gold buying is brewing. Why?

Bruni said it best: “Gold is kind of one of these things that operates on vibes."

<<<



---

[LightningHaven32]

Precious metals have historically been a safe haven during economic downturns. For instance, gold prices surged during the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. Finding reputable dealers is crucial in this market. I've had positive experiences with APMEX and Bold precious metals. What tips do you have for buying precious metals? How do you determine the best times to sell?

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold prices slide as dollar regains ground; Copper walloped by China fears


Investing.com

Jul 18, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-prices-slide-dollar-regains-013512650.html


Investing.com-- Gold prices fell sharply in Asian trade on Friday, dented by a mix of profit-taking and as speculation over a potential Donald Trump presidency and stricter U.S. trade policies favored the dollar.

Among industrial metals, copper prices steadied on Friday but were nursing steep losses amid scant cues on more stimulus measures from top importer China, as the country grapples with slowing economic growth.

Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,423.89 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in August fell 1.2% to $2,426.45 an ounce 01:05 ET (05:05 GMT).

Gold tumbles from record highs

Spot prices were now trading about $50 below a record high hit earlier this week, facing some profit-taking after a strong melt-up over the past seven days.

Initial strength in gold was driven chiefly by growing optimism over interest rate cuts in the U.S., with traders seen pricing in an over 90% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, according to CME Fedwatch.

While these bets still remained in place, the dollar found some strength this week from unexpectedly strong jobless claims data, which showed the labor market- a key consideration for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates- remained resilient.

Speculation over a second term for Trump- after the former president saw a massive boost in popularity in the wake of a failed assassination- also benefited the dollar, on bets that Trump’s protectionist policies could direct more capital back into the country.

Other precious metals also sank on Friday, tracking gold’s decline. Platinum futures fell 0.5% to $976.60 an ounce, while silver futures slid 1.6% to an over two-week low of $29.762 an ounce.

Copper nurses steep losses on China jitters

Copper prices steadied on Friday but were nursing steep losses this week on growing uncertainty over top importer China.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3% to $9,411.0 a tonne, while one-month copper futures rose 0.3% to $4.280 a pound.

Both contracts were down between 4.7% to 7% this week.

Losses in copper were initially sparked by weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth data for the second quarter.

Reports that the U.S. was considering stricter trade restrictions against China also dented sentiment towards the country, as did speculation over a second term for Trump.

Additionally, the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, which began earlier in the week, yielded scant cues on more stimulus measures from Beijing. While officials did vow to provide more support, they did not offer any details on the planned measures.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> $27,000 Gold


BY JAMES RICKARDS

MAY 13, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/27000-gold/


$27,000 Gold

I’ve previously said that gold could reach $15,000 by 2026. Today, I’m updating that forecast.

My latest forecast is that gold may actually exceed $27,000.

I don’t say that to get attention or to shock people. It’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.

Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll happen. But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.

Here’s how I reached that price level forecast…

This analysis begins with a simple question: What’s the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard?

No central banker in the world wants a gold standard. Why would they? Right now, they control the machinery of global currencies (also called fiat money).

They have no interest in a form of money they can’t control. It took about 60 years from 1914–1974 to drive gold out of the monetary system. No central banker wants to let it back in.

Still, what if they have no choice? What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, competition from Bitcoin, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster?

In that case, central bankers may return to gold not because they want to, but because they must in order to restore order to the global monetary system.

What’s the Proper Gold Price?

That scenario begs the question: What is the new dollar price of gold in a system in which dollars are freely exchangeable for gold at a fixed price?

If the dollar price is too high, investors will sell gold for dollars and spend freely. Central banks will have to increase the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That’s an inflationary result.

If the dollar price is too low, investors will line up to redeem dollars for gold and then hoard the gold. Central banks will have to reduce the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That reduces velocity and is deflationary.

Something like the latter case happened in the U.K. in 1925 when it returned to a gold standard at an unrealistically low price. The result was that the U.K. entered the Great Depression several years ahead of other developed economies.

Something like the former case happened in the U.S. in 1933, when FDR devalued the dollar against gold. Citizens weren’t allowed to own gold, so there was no mass redemption of gold. But other commodity prices rose sharply.

That was the point of the devaluation. Resulting inflation helped lift the U.S. out of deflation and gave the economy a boost from 1933–1936 in the midst of the Great Depression. (The Fed caused another severe recession in 1937–1938 with their customary incompetence.)

The policy goal obviously is to get the price “just right” by maintaining the proper equilibrium between gold and dollars. The U.S. is in an ideal position to do this by selling gold from U.S. Treasury reserves, about 8,100 metric tonnes (261.5 million troy ounces), or buying gold in the open market using freshly printed Fed money.

The goal would be to maintain the dollar price of gold in a narrow range around the fixed price.

What price is just right? This question is easy to answer, subject to a few assumptions.

$27,533 Gold

U.S. M1 money supply is $17.9 trillion. (I use M1, which is a good proxy for everyday money).

What is M1? This is the supply that is the most liquid and money that is the easiest to turn into cash.

It contains actual cash (bills and coins), bank reserves (what’s actually kept in the vaults) and demand deposits (money in your checking account that can be turned into cash easily).

One needs to make an assumption about the percentage of gold backing for the money supply needed to maintain confidence. I assume 40% coverage with gold. (This was the legal requirement for the Fed from 1913–1946. Later it was 25%, then zero today).

Applying the 40% ratio to the $17.9 trillion money supply means that $7.2 trillion of gold is required.

Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce.

That’s the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold in a new global gold standard. Of course, money supplies fluctuate; lately they’ve been going up sharply, especially in the U.S.

There’s room for debate about whether a 40% backing ratio is too high or too low. Still, my assumptions are moderate based on monetary economics and history. A dollar price of gold of over $25,000 per ounce in a new gold standard is not a stretch.

Obviously, you get around $12,500 per ounce if you assume 20% coverage. There are many variables in play.

The Fundamental Model

This model is also straightforward. It relies on factors we learned about in our first week of Intro to Economics — supply and demand.

The most significant development on the supply side is the decrease of new mining output. As the chart shows below, mine production of gold in the U.S. has been decreasing steadily since 2017.



image 1

These figures reveal a 28% decrease over seven years, at the same time gold prices were rising and miners were motivated to expand output.

That’s not to argue that the world has reached “peak gold,” (output could expand in future for a variety of reasons). Still, my contacts in the mining community consistently report that gold is becoming more difficult to source and the quality of newly discovered ore is low-to-medium at best.

Flat output, all things equal, tends to put a floor under prices and to support higher prices based on other factors.

The Demand Side

The demand side is driven largely by central banks, ETFs, hedge funds and individual purchases. Traditional institutional investors are not large investors in gold. Much of the demand from hedge funds is conducted in derivatives such as gold futures.

Derivatives generally don’t involve physical delivery of gold. They involve “paper gold” that far exceeds the actual, physical gold supply. It’s this paper gold market that accounts for volatility in the gold market, not gold itself.

Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold has surged from less than 100 metric tonnes in 2010 to 1,100 metric tonnes in 2022, a 1,000% increase in 12 years. Central bank gold demand remained strong in 2023 with 800 metric tonnes acquired through Sept. 30.

That puts central bank gold demand on track for a new record. There’s no sign of that demand slowing in 2024.

Overall, the picture is one of flat supply and increasing demand, mostly in the form of official purchases by central banks.

A Math Lesson

Finally, a bit of elementary math is helpful in understanding how the dollar price of gold can move past $25,000 per ounce in the next two years. For this purpose, we’ll assume a baseline price of $2,000 per ounce (although gold has been in the $2,300 range lately with no signs of falling back to the $2,000 level).

But for our purposes, we’ll keep it simple.

A move from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. That’s a 50% increase and could easily take a year or more. Beyond that, a further increase from $3,000 to $4,000 is a 33% increase: another large rally. A further gain from $4,000 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a further gain of 25%.

But notice the pattern. Each gain is $1,000 per ounce, but the percentage increase drops from 50% to 33% to 25%. That’s because the starting point is higher while the $1,000 gain is constant. Each $1,000 jump represents a smaller (and easier) percentage gain than the one before.

This pattern continues. Moving from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. Moving from $14,000 per ounce to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% gain. Gold can move 1% in a single trading day, sometimes 2% or more.

As an extreme example, a move from $99,000 per ounce to $100,000 per ounce is about a 1% move. Those $1,000 pops get even easier as we approach my calculated gold price of $27,533.

The lesson for you as an investor is to buy gold now.

As prices continue to rally, you’ll get more gold for your money at the outset and high-percentage returns as gold rallies from a lower base. Toward the end of the long march past $25,000 per ounce, you’ll have bigger dollar gains because you started with more gold.

Others will jump on the bandwagon, but you’ll already have a comfortable seat.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Wow, silver hit 29.99, so it could be the fun is just beginning. A lot of momentum building, and I'm thinking a blast up to 33 - 35 might be in the cards for the nearer term (?) Then a consolidation that establishes 30 as the new 'floor'. Just a guess, but that would replicate what gold has already done.

With silver, there is an incentive for the globalist ghouls to keep the price down, since silver represents a significant input cost for solar panels. But for now it looks like the market forces are in the driver's seat :o)

The surge in the old meme stocks this week suggests a return to 'risk on' investing could be underway, at least for a while. The main 3 stock indices all put in new highs today. RSIs for the S+P 500, DJIA, and Nasdaq are currently - 69, 69, 67, so closing in on the 70 overbought level. But I figure with luck the current momentum continues into next week, barring any news flow that derails the party.



---

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> AI, Gold and Nuclear War


BY JAMES RICKARDS

APRIL 16, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/ai-gold-and-nuclear-war/


AI, Gold and Nuclear War

So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.

In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.

So here’s a question:

Is there a connection between AI and gold? It seems like an odd question. But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.

In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.

Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.

This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.

The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.

AI and Nuclear Readiness

In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.

VRYAN took about 40,000 military, economic and political inputs and computed the relative strength of the Soviet Union compared with the United States expressed as a percentage output. The model used a value of 100% for equivalence of the USSR to the U.S.

The Soviet leadership was comfortable that the U.S. would not launch a nuclear first strike if the USSR could maintain a value of 60%, although they viewed 70% as providing a more comfortable margin.

A VRYAN output of 40% was considered the critical threshold at which the U.S. might feel it could launch a first strike with acceptable risk that the Soviets would not be able to mount a successful second strike.

VRYAN output values were in steady decline in the dangerous period from 1981–1984 (in 1984, the VRYAN output had declined to 45%).

The VRYAN AI system relied on by the KGB and the Soviet Politburo was an important factor in the Soviet decision in 1981 to vastly increase intelligence collections aimed at detecting U.S. preparations for a first strike.

Close Call

This intelligence collection effort was complicated to the point of extreme danger by the fact that the U.S. and NATO were conducting a war game in late 1983, code-named Able Archer 83. This war game was to practice a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union.

It turned out that the U.S. was rehearsing a nuclear first strike at the same exact time that the KGB was looking for evidence of a nuclear first strike. Able Archer 83 provided the KGB with more than enough reason to suspect the U.S. was indeed preparing for a first strike under cover of a war game.

VRYAN’s AI output on relative U.S. strength was compounded by massive U.S. intelligence failures regarding Soviet intentions. U.S. intelligence analysts assumed that the future would resemble the past, and that Soviet alerts were really propaganda designed to halt the U.S. deployment of Pershing II intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.

U.S. intelligence analysts were also guilty of what’s called mirror imaging: the belief that because you know your own intentions, your opponents must share your view. In this case, the U.S. assumed that because they had no intention to launch a first strike, the Soviets must have understood that intention and would therefore have no cause for concern.

In fact, the Soviets had the opposite view based in part on VRYAN AI output.

The world came extremely close to World War III and a nuclear holocaust as a result of this sequence of events and misperception of intentions. It was only when one U.S. general decided not to escalate in the face of Soviet first strike preparations that both sides deescalated, and the crisis eventually receded.

The information above wasn’t fully understood by either side at the time of the escalation. On the U.S. side, it wasn’t until the 1990 publication of a study entitled The Soviet War Scare by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) that something like the full story was revealed.

Nuclear War Threats: Good For Gold

This study was originally classified above TOP SECRET. (Most citizens assume that TOP SECRET is the highest level of classification. But there are secret access codes that limit circulation of certain documents even among those cleared with TOP SECRET access.

In the case of The Soviet War Scare, those restrictions had the code names UMBRA, GAMMA, ININTEL, NOFORN, NOCONTRACT, ORCON. I can’t discuss my own TOP SECRET clearances, but I can inform you that very few intelligence operatives would have been able to view the PFIAB report based on those restrictions.

So what does all this have to do with gold?

Buried inside The Soviet War Scare was this passage about the U.S. assessment of KGB collection requirements related to a potential nuclear war:

VRYAN Collection Requirements – Throughout the early 1980s, VRYAN requirements were the No. 1 (and urgent) collection priority for Soviet intelligence… They were tasked to collect:… monitoring of the flow of money and gold on Wall Street as well as the movement of high-grade jewelry, collections of rare paintings and similar items. (This was regarded as useful geostrategic information.) (Emphasis added)

And there it is! The U.S. assessed that the KGB tracked the movement of gold as a leading indicator of nuclear attack.

I didn’t find this completely surprising. From 2004–2010, I was co-director of a CIA effort called Project Prophesy that looked at capital markets activity as an early warning of an enemy attack.

Gold was one of the valuable assets that was on our list of items to track. The idea was that if a general or political leader had advance information about an attack, they’d convert their wealth to gold in safekeeping in order to financially survive the fallout.

The bottom line is that this intelligence reporting and AI system are not ancient history. Today, the world is closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Able Archer scare in 1983. Gold is once again on the move, having risen from $1,830 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, to over $2,400 today. That’s a 31% gain in six months.

Is this a coincidence? Hardly. A close correlation of huge gains in gold with serious threats of nuclear war is exactly what one should expect.

Unfortunately, those threats of nuclear war are not going away soon. One need only look at the Iranian attack on Israel this past weekend and the possibilities of further escalation.

There are also situations in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Gaza, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal revealing that the world is a more dangerous place than it has been for decades.

That’s bad news for the world but good news for gold investors. The rally we’ve seen in the past six months is just getting started.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Why Are Gold Bar Sales Surging at Costco?


The New York Times

by Rebecca Carballo

April 11, 2024


https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-gold-bar-sales-surging-175059774.html


Alongside its $1.50 hot dog and soda combo, gallon tubs of mayonnaise and value packs of socks, Costco, the warehouse retailer, has been selling gold bars since October.

Now, Costco is selling up to $200 million worth of gold and silver each month, according to an analysis from Wells Fargo.

Online forums and Reddit threads have cropped up where customers give one another advice on how to purchase the bars before they sell out.

“I’ve gotten a couple of calls that people have seen online that we’ve been selling one-ounce gold bars, yes, but when we load them on the site, they’re typically gone within a few hours,” Richard Galanti, Costco’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said in an earnings call in September.

Costco started selling gold bars in October.

Costco is now selling one-ounce, 24-karat gold bars, according to its online store. The bars can be purchased only by members, and the price varies based on market rates. As of Thursday, the bars were sold out for members online, but The Wall Street Journal reported that shoppers purchased them for around $2,000 in December.

Costco has also been selling silver coins, advertised as 99.9% pure silver, since January, according to an analyst report from Wells Fargo.

People buy gold in times of turmoil.

The precious metal has set a series of records as it surged to $2,350 per troy ounce, up roughly $300 since the start of March.

Buying gold becomes more common in times of economic turmoil. Although the U.S. economic outlook has improved and inflation has slowed, it remains higher than the targets from the Federal Reserve, said Sadiq S. Adatia, the chief investment officer for BMO Global Asset Management. And on Wednesday, a key inflation rate was revealed to be stronger than expected.

Investors have said they were puzzled about the rally.

Geopolitical concerns could also be a factor in an increasing interest in gold, Adatia said. There has been more interest in gold since Ukraine’s currency collapsed after Russia’s invasion, he said.

For those looking to purchase gold for the first time, Costco provides familiarity and ease, Adatia said.

“They make it convenient,” he said. “People can physically go in and pick it up and that’s it, versus opening up an account and buying gold shares.”

How much is Costco profiting from this?

Probably not too much.

Given its pricing and shipping costs, it’s likely a “very low profit business at best,” analysts with Wells Fargo wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

Costco sold more than $100 million of gold during its first quarter, or the three-month period ending on Sept. 30 last year, Galanti said on a December earnings call. However, those sales have likely grown since then and may now be running at $100 million to $200 million per month, which could increase its sales figures by 1%.

“The reason that we looked at this is that it’s becoming a larger contributor to sales for them,” said Edward Kelly, managing director of equity research at Wells Fargo. “It’s not that $100 or $200 million a month is a lot for Costco, but it’s new business and they didn’t have that business last year.”

In the three-month period ending on Dec. 31, Costco’s e-commerce sales grew 18% compared with the same period a year earlier, driven in part by demand for the precious metals, Galanti told investors on an earnings call in March.

Investing in metals can be volatile.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has urged caution when buying gold because precious metals can be highly volatile.

“Like other commodities, precious metal prices rise as demand goes up, so when economic anxiety or instability is high, the people who typically profit from precious metals are the sellers,” the agency said in a statement.

The commission likely puts that warning out to signal that it is not a guaranteed investment, said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. He recommends the average person invest 3% to 5% of their assets in gold.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Goldman recently came out bullish on gold (previous post), so that's a factor in the current move, and another is that Wall Street often bases its decisions on TA / charts, and this big breakout is attracting attention. I figure numerous 'macro' factors are also at work, including the growing US debt bomb, the BRICS plans for their own gold linked currency to compete with the US dollar, etc. As we know, central banks have been piling into gold for years, so global demand grows and mining output has lagged.

So the 'stars + planets' are finally aligning to produce the big breakout. The professional 'gold bugs' are always bullish, and have their reputations and livelihoods wrapped up in the bullish side, via newsletters, book sales, etc. But it looks like gold's appeal is broadening, and some of the Bitcoin crowd might also be switching over to gold. Seeing gold being sold at Costco, and selling out within hours, may have also attracted some attention. And anyone who follows TA / charts couldn't miss the extremely bullish chart pattern that had developed.

Based on the charts, this move is probably just beginning. But as you said, the big question is when does the suppression mechanism kick in? If gold is allowed to run up too much it could reinforce an inflationary vibe and thus work against the Fed's goals. So we'll see how long the party lasts, but so far it's been fun :o)




---

[gfp927z]

>> silver <<

Silver also coming to life :o) Looking at the SLV chart, as with gold there is a quasi 12 year cup + handle (bullish), with the 3 year 'cup' having a quasi inverted head + shoulders (also bullish). It's much less classic than on the gold chart, but is easier to see now that silver is climbing. Also the 'neckline' on the silver chart is sloped, where gold's is flat and thus more 'classic'.

Anyway, looks like silver is playing catch up to gold. There is also a potential motivation for price suppression with silver, since it represents a key input cost for solar panels. Therefore keeping silver prices lower helps keep solar cost competitive with traditional types of energy. Not sure how much price suppression of silver has been going on in recent years, but like gold. it does seem to have peculiar 'smack downs' at times.



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Gold: The Everything Hedge

By Jim Rickards

https://dailyreckoning.com/goldilocks-is-gonna-get-it/

Gold is trading at $2,211 per ounce this afternoon. Since its interim low of $1,832 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, gold has posted a 21% gain. That’s in less than six months. Almost half of that gain occurred in the one-month period from Feb. 11 to March 11.

That overall gain is especially impressive considering gold had been stuck in a fairly narrow range of $1,650–2,050 for the past two years. That’s a range of about 10% above and below the midpoint of $1,850. Starting from the high end of that range, gold traversed the entire range to the upside and beyond in just one month.

Now, any reference to “gold prices” is an interesting one. If you treat gold as a commodity, then the price per ounce measured in dollars is one way to think about price.

On the other hand, if you think of gold as money (as I do) then the dollar price is not really a price — it’s a cross-rate similar to euro/dollar (about $1.08 today) or dollar/yen (about 152 today). When analysts say the “price” of gold is $2,211 per ounce, I think of that data as showing the gold/dollar cross-rate = $2,211.

That’s useful because there are two sides to a cross-rate. While most analysts say that gold has rallied from $2,000 to $2,211 per ounce, it is just as valid and perhaps more useful to say that the dollar has crashed from 1/2,000 per ounce to 1/2,211 per ounce.

In this analysis, gold is constant (by weight) and the dollar gets stronger or weaker relative to gold. All of the recent market action points to a weaker dollar.

This mode of analysis also solves another market riddle. Given huge U.S. budget deficits, unprecedented levels of U.S. national debt, slow growth, rising unemployment and persistent inflation, how is it possible that the dollar has been so “strong” lately?

The answer is that it’s only been strong relative to the euro, yen, sterling and some other reserve currencies and as measured by certain dollar indexes (DXY, Bloomberg, etc.) composed of baskets of currencies (but not gold).

But that’s often because those other currencies are issued by countries with debt and growth problems even worse than the U.S.’ Those currencies dropping against the dollar have the look and feel of a good old-fashioned currency war.

It’s only when you use gold as your metric that the real weakness in the dollar becomes apparent, as it should. In effect, certain currencies are weakening against each other but all currencies are weakening against gold.

Returning to the “higher gold price” frame, there are a number of reasons for this trend. The first factor is simple supply and demand. Mining output and recycled gold have been about flat for the past eight years running between 1,100 metric tonnes and 1,250 metric tonnes per year.

At the same time, central bank demand for gold has surged from less than 100 metric tonnes in 2010 to 1,100 metric tonnes in 2022, a 1,000% increase in 12 years. Central bank gold demand remained strong in 2023 with 800 metric tonnes acquired through Sept. 30, 2023. That puts central bank gold demand on track for a new record in 2023. There’s no sign of that demand slowing in 2024.

Constant output with surging demand by central banks does not by itself explain the recent surge in gold prices, but it is a contributor. Importantly, continued strong demand by central banks puts a floor under gold prices. This sets up what we describe as an asymmetric trade where downside is limited but upside is open-ended.

The second factor driving gold prices higher is the need for hedging. This is not the same as inflation hedging. It covers a larger list of risks including geopolitical risk, risks of escalation in the Ukraine and Gaza wars, Houthi efforts to close the Red Sea and Suez Canal, increasing risks of war with China and the intrinsic risk of a senile president of the United States.

As the list of risks grows longer and potentially more dangerous, the need for a hedging asset such as gold that does not rely on any nation-state for its value increases. I call gold the everything hedge.

Finally, gold prices are being driven higher by U.S. threats to steal $300 billion in U.S. Treasury securities from the Russian Federation. Those assets were legally purchased by the Central Bank of Russia as part of their reserve position.

The actual securities are held in custody in digital form at European banks, U.S. banks and the Brussels-based Euroclear clearinghouse. Only about $20 billion of those Treasury securities are held by U.S. banks; the majority are held by Euroclear. Those assets were frozen by the United States at the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Freezing assets means the Russians cannot collect interest or sell or transfer the assets or pledge them as collateral. Asset freezes are used frequently by the U.S. including in the cases of Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela and other nations. Often the assets are frozen for years but ultimately released to the owner as happened in the case of Iran after 2012.

Now the U.S. wants to go further and actually seize the assets, which may be viewed as outright theft under international law. The U.S. proposes to use the $300 billion to finance the war in Ukraine. European entities have expressed considerable uncertainty about this plan but the U.S. has maintained the pressure and wants to complete the theft before the June and July summits of G7 leaders and NATO members.

If the U.S. steals these assets, Russia will likely confiscate an equivalent amount of industrial and commercial assets located in Russia and owned by German, French, and Italian interests among others.

The bottom line is that if U.S. Treasury securities are not a safe investment, then securities of Germany, Italy, France, the U.K. and Japan are no better. The only reserve asset free of this kind of digital theft is gold. Nations are beginning to diversify into gold in order to insulate themselves from digital confiscation by the collective West.

Finally, there’s an interesting bit of math here, which I’ve explained in the past that shows each $100 per ounce increment in the price of gold is a smaller percentage gain because the denominator is larger.

That makes each $100 milestone ($2,400, $2,500, $2,600) easier to reach than the one before. People don’t really notice this; they just focus on the dollar amount of the gains. But this explains how price rallies gather crazy momentum.

All of these trends — flat output, rising central bank demand, hedging, protection against digital confiscation and simple momentum — will continue. Based on those trends, one would expect the gold price rally to continue as well.

The trend is gold’s friend.

<<<




---

[gfp927z]

Goldman likes gold - >>> Gold’s 'record march higher set to continue,' Goldman says


Yahoo Finance

Ines Ferré

March 25, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golds-record-march-higher-set-to-continue-goldman-says-164325765.html


Gold’s roughly 8% month-to-date rally has room to grow with the precious metal poised to hit $2,300 an ounce by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

On Monday futures gained to trade as high as $2,182 an ounce. The precious metal is considered a safe haven during times of geopolitical tensions and when interest rates decrease. Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to signal that it would lower interest rates three times this year.

The Fed meeting “reinforced the market’s (and ours) expectations that three cuts are likely this year, lending renewed support to gold to test and surpass March’s earlier record high,” wrote a team of analysts led by Samantha Dart.

Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090 to $2,180 per ounce, targeting a move to $2,300 by the end of the year.

The analysts forecast gold prices in the near term will move toward another consolidation phase, barring any geopolitical surprise. However, “a substantive retracement lower will likely also be limited by resilience in physical buying channels,” wrote Dart, citing Chinese imports of the precious metal.

“Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely dormant ETF buying,” wrote Dart.

Bullion's price increases have been disconnected from recent outflows seen in gold-related ETFs. Strategists believe investors have been rotating money into bitcoin ETFs as the token roared toward new highs earlier this month.

Central banks have been buying up gold at historic levels, helping to drive up demand over the past couple of years.

Adjusted for inflation, gold hit a record in 1980 when it hit $850 per ounce, which would equal almost $3,200 in today's dollars.

<<<



---

[fung_derf]

The world's central banks still own a huge amount of gold, so they obviously see it as having value.

Well, we don't know this to be true. Many believe all that Ft Know is protecting is the truth that nothing is inside.
Nixon took us off the gold system long ago. I've said for many years that collecting gold is....well .....Fool's gold. Other than at a Pawn Shop (of course they take their commission right off the top).
And trading gold is far worse, ever check into these companies that sell gold? They control the market and the markups.
Diamonds used to be the top notch gem to have, but now they can make artificial ones.
Water.....the only true commodity I can think of without a replacement.....unless of course you accept the words of that great Politician President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho, who claims Brawndo is better for you than water.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> what gold is used for any more <<

Yes, that's the problem with owning gold since other than jewelry, its only real use historically is as money or backing for money. A tiny amount is used in electronics, but it's negligible. So the question is when will gold return to be a backing for money, ala the Bretton Woods system or something similar? The world's central banks still own a huge amount of gold, so they obviously see it as having value. The new BRICS currency being set up will reportedly be linked to gold, and once operational this could force the dollar and euro into a similar arrangement to remain competitive.

Jim Rickards recommends having 10% of one's investible assets in gold. It's tough to sit in gold when you can get 4-5% in Treasuries or the money market, so it's a dilemma. The timeline for the BRICS gold-linked currency has slipped, but with the US debt now parabolic, I figure it makes sense to at least have something in gold. Silver also seems logical since it usually follows the gold price loosely, and also has many industrial uses, in solar panels, etc. But as the saying goes - 'everything in moderation' :o)


Forbes article -

>>> The BRICs Go For Gold


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172356566


---

[fung_derf]

Yes, copper is needed. Much like silver used to be a necessity for video equipment.
I don't know what gold is used for any more.