Mining Sector Ideas

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Silver_bars, >> someone always knows <<

Yes, insider trading and profiteering among US government officials is rampant. Pelosi and her hedge fund husband set a new record for insider trading in the stock market. But not to be outdone, Trump gave crypto the green light and he's has been lining his pockets ever since -- his own meme coins, Stable coin, a family of ETFs, and now he plans to do 'crypto mining' Unbelievable. We had grifting Hillary and her Uranium One deal, the Biden crime family exploits in Ukraine with Burisma, and now Trump and his sons lining their pockets to the tune of billions. As far as I can tell, the only people in government today who aren't doing this kind of stuff are Rand Paul and RFK Jr.



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Gold & Silver Stocks Scan-Screen for Tuesday, April 15 2025, After Market Close ...




The grid-view image above shows the top 24 results from a scan-screen from a list of aprox. 500 Small Cap Gold & Silver stocks, that ...

- shows the results for after market close Tuesday, April 15, 2025 ...

- shows just the top 24 results sorted by relative strength (RSI) in descending order - from the highest RSI ranking ...

- shows the results in a condensed grid format called "candle-glance" view ...

- each mini chart shows; candlesticks for past 60 days, price, RSI, volume, 20 & 50 day moving averages.

This daily "candle-glance" grid style chart view format sorted by strongest relative strength (RSI) is helpful for quickly identifying potential shorter term trading opportunities for a small-select group of stocks currently posting stronger than average strength-momentum indicators out of a much larger group of approx. 500 stocks from the same sector.

The majority of the companies in the scan-screen list are TSX & TSXV listed stocks ... and many of these stocks also have a corresponding US listing.




***** DISCLAIMER .....

- I may have positions/trades on some stocks featured in the stock scan,

- i am not an investment advisor ... and i'm not employed in the securities industry,

- i am not being paid a fee to post-publish info about any stocks featured in the scans.

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Insider trading at the highest levels .....

This is unusual:

At 2:20 PM, there was an $8 million spike in puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.

4 hours later, the US banned Nvidia, $NVDA, from selling their H20 chips to China.

The Nasdaq is now down nearly -300 points since.

Someone always knows. pic.twitter.com/sRik5guA6n

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 15, 2025

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Trump is ‘shredding’ credibility with allies while China benefits, former national security advisor John Bolton says

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/trump-shredding-credibility-with-allies-as-china-benefits-john-bolton.html

“This is certainly not the way you treat your friends. You don’t slap them in the face publicly and say, I’m going to tariff you unless you do better on trade negotiations,” Bolton told CNBC.

International leaders, including U.S. allies, have criticized Trump’s actions.

On Monday, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping embarked on what some observers are dubbing a charm offensive through Southeast Asia, first visiting Vietnam followed by scheduled trips to Malaysia and Cambodia.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves to take China to task on trade are likely to backfire as his sweeping global tariffs hit allies as well as rivals, according to former national security advisor John Bolton.

“This is certainly not the way you treat your friends. You don’t slap them in the face publicly and say, I’m going to tariff you unless you do better on trade negotiations,” Bolton told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.

“And in fact, the one country that really deserves a trade war — China — we’ve put them in a much better position strategically by going to war on tariffs with our best friends, whereas if we had all joined together, maybe we would have had an impact on China’s behavior. So, this is a not just an economic blunder, which I think it clearly is. It’s a strategic blunder that’s going to cost the United States dearly if this tariff policy isn’t reversed.”

A White House spokesperson was not immediately available to respond when contacted by CNBC.

Trump sent global markets into chaos on April 2, which he termed “liberation day,” unveiling tariffs on nearly every country and territory based on a calculation that economists roundly criticized as nonsensical. A blanket 10% tariff on imported goods was imposed globally, while many countries faced much larger levies based on the U.S. trade deficit with them — a move Trump described as “reciprocal” despite the metric being unrelated to tariffs.

Within a few days that saw market mayhem, trillions of dollars of wealth erased, and a spike in U.S. treasury yields, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the larger tariffs but maintained the blanket 10% measure on all countries, including Washington’s closest allies, as well as prior 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. He then increased levies on China, which had already responded with its own tariffs on U.S. goods.

The world’s two largest economies escalated the levies tit for tat, with the current U.S. tariff on Chinese imports at 145% and China’s tariff on U.S. imports at 125%. China has vowed to “fight to the end”; the Trump administration recently announced an exemption for Chinese-imported electronics, including smartphones.

Bolton agreed with Trump’s conviction that China should be held to account for what he described as unfair trade practices and violations, including intellectual property theft, protecting and subsidizing certain industries to create unfair competition, and “manipulating the World Trade Organization.”

“If you want to deal with that problem, certainly it would make sense to get together with Japan, Korea, Singapore, other Asian countries, the European countries, others around the world who have been victimized by China in the same way the U.S. has,” Bolton said.

“Instead, we’re having a war with our friends and really crippling our ability to deal effectively with China.”

Xi on a charm offensive

International leaders have criticized Trump’s actions. On Tuesday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou said that “the president of the United States has started a hurricane” that shattered trust around the world, according to a Reuters translation.

On Monday, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping embarked on what some observers are dubbing a charm offensive through Southeast Asia, first visiting Vietnam followed by scheduled trips to Malaysia and Cambodia.

“Xi Jinping is trying to build up allies,” Bolton said. “If Trump had any sense, he would be doing the same thing; instead of he’s alienating our allies. ... The damage that’s being done to us, credibility, our good faith, people’s reliance on [the U.S.] built up over the last eight decades — since the end of World War II — Trump is shredding. And China, of all places, is saying, you know, we’re really an island of stability in the midst of all this turmoil. I don’t think Trump understands this.”

The Chinese leader “is not going to stop in Southeast Asia,” Bolton said. “We know even before the tariffs started being imposed ... his people had spoken to South Korea and Japan to have a common front against the U.S. tariffs. This is just insanity from the U.S. point of view, that we would even let this happen.”

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Fwiw, I reduced the stock allocation to 3%, from the previous 6%. Some nice gains on the individual stock side, so I decided to grab them before they possibly evaporate. The market has had a good bounce off the bottom, and the current chart looks like it could go either way, but with everything so dependent upon Trump's latest utterances, best to be cautious imo.

This will be a challenging year. I figure some potential strategies would include - 1) buy / hold, 2) actively trade, 3) a little of both. I'll probably go with #3, with a lower 'max allowable' for the stock side of 15% (vrs 20-25% last year). Sounds like a plan anyway.

Right now the S+P 500 (currently 5424) looks like it might inch up to test 5500, which was the March support level that failed 2 weeks ago. So that's the current near term target to watch (5500). Above that is 5600, and then the 50 and 200 MAs near 5700. The question is how high does the current bounce get before the pullback / consolidation arrives? I'm thinking 5500-5600, but just a guess, and will depend upon news flow.



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U.S.' inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/us-is-unable-to-replace-rare-earths-supply-from-china-warns-csis-.html

Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies warns the restrictions will likely result in a pause in exports and cause disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms.

“The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies.

As China imposes export controls on rare earth elements, the U.S. would be unable to fill a potential shortfall, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.

Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets used in defense, energy and automotive technologies.

The new restrictions — which encompass the medium and heavy rare earth elements samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium — will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export the resources.

Though it remains to be seen exactly how China will implement this policy, the CSIS report, published Monday, warns that it will likely result in a pause in exports as Beijing establishes the licensing system, and cause disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms.

The New York Times reported earlier this week that a pause in China’s rare earth element exports was already occurring.

As China effectively holds a monopoly over the supply of global heavy rare earths processing, such restrictions pose a serious threat to the U.S., particularly its defense technology sector.

“The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains,” CSIS warned, emphasizing that rare earths are crucial for a range of advanced defense technologies and are used in types of fighter jets, submarines, missiles, radar systems and drones.

Along with the export controls, Beijing has placed 16 U.S. entities — all but one in the defense and aerospace industries — on its export control list. Placement on the list prevents companies from receiving “dual-use goods,” including the aforementioned rare earth elements.

Not ready to fill gap

According to CSIS’s report, if China’s trade controls result in a complete shutdown of the medium and heavy rare earth element exports, the U.S. will be incapable of filling the gap.

“There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present,” CSIS said, though it noted the development of these capabilities is underway.

For example, the Department of Defense set a goal to develop a complete rare earth element supply chain that can meet all U.S. defense needs by 2027 in its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy.

Since 2020, the DOD has committed over $439 million toward building domestic supply chains and heavy rare earths processing facilities, according to data collected by CSIS.

However, CSIS said that by the time these facilities are operational, their output will fall well short of China’s, with the U.S. still far from meeting the DOD’s goal of an independent rare earth element supply.

“Developing mining and processing capabilities requires a long-term effort, meaning the United States will be on the back foot for the foreseeable future,” it added.

U.S. President Trump has also been seeking a deal with Ukraine, which would give it access to its deposits of rare earth minerals. However, questions remain about the value and accessibility of such deposits.

Implications

The CSIS report warns that the export controls pose direct threats to U.S. military readiness, highlighting that the country is already lagging behind in its defense manufacturing.

“Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands,” its authors said.

They cite an estimate that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the U.S., originating from a U.S. Air Force official in 2022.

“Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States,” the report concludes.

The U.S. is not alone in its concerns about China’s monopoly on rare earths, with countries like Australia and Brazil also investing in strengthening domestic rare earth elements supply chains.

CSIS recommends that the U.S. provide financial and diplomatic support to ensure the success of these initiatives.

However, China’s new export licensing system for the rare earths could also incentivize countries across the world to cooperate with China to prevent disruptions to their own supply of the elements, CSIS said.

A research report from Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, on Monday also noted how controls on rare earths and critical minerals have become part of Beijing’s playbook in pushing back against Washington.

Shearing notes that in addition to China’s hold on some rare earths, the supply of many other critical minerals, including cobalt and palladium, is concentrated in countries that align with Beijing.

“The weaponising of this control over critical minerals — and the race by other countries to secure alternative supplies — will be a central feature of a fractured global economy,” he said.

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US economy is set to lose billions as foreign tourists stay away

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-set-lose-billions-100000258.html?.tsrc=fin-notif

(Bloomberg) — The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.

Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.

Foreign tourism has been a tailwind for the US in recent years as the cessation of pandemic-era restrictions sparked a resurgence of international travel. But many potential visitors are now rethinking their vacation plans amid increased hostility at the border, rising geopolitical frictions and global economic uncertainty.

One of them is Curtis Allen, a Canadian videographer who canceled an upcoming US vacation after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on his home country and suggested it should become the 51st US state. Allen and his partner have been on multiple camping trips to Oregon over the years, but this year, they will be traveling around British Columbia instead.

“We’re not just staying home,” said Allen, 34. “We’re going to go spend the same money somewhere else.”

Allen’s hesitance doesn’t stop there. He canceled his Netflix (NFLX) subscription and is actively avoiding American imports at the grocery store.

“Now it takes us double the time, because we’re looking at where the products came from,” he said.

International travelers spent a record $254 billion in the US last year, according to ITA figures. Coming into 2025, the outlook was positive: The ITA projected in early March that the US would welcome 77 million visitors this year, just shy of the 2019 record, before pushing to a new high in 2026.

But those estimates came out just before stories of harsh detentions at US airports, ensnaring travelers from countries like France and Germany, started making headlines. Canadians, meanwhile – the largest group of foreign tourists in the US – are choosing to stay put as Trump ramps up attacks on the country’s economy and sovereignty.

Almost $20 billion in retail spending from international tourists in the US may be at risk, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis.

Early signs of a sharp pullback are already showing up. Airfares, hotel rates and car rental costs fell in March, according to a monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics report on consumer prices published April 10. Economists at Goldman Sachs and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBC) said lower demand, including from foreign travelers, probably played a role.

Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights, noted the decline in hotel rates was driven by an almost 11% drop in the Northeast in particular, possibly a result of fewer Canadians traveling there.

“Given what we know about how much Canadian travel has fallen off, that’s potentially a bit worrying for that region,” Sharif said.

Summer Season
The timing is “very interesting” for Rainbow Air Helicopter Tours in Niagara Falls — which just invested $25 million in a new building, an enhanced fleet and a virtual reality attraction ahead of the busy summer season — said Patrick Keyes, the firm’s sales and marketing manager. “We are waiting to see the fallout,” he said.

Canadian flight reservations to the US are down 70% through September versus the same period last year, according to a report by OAG Aviation Worldwide. Meanwhile US summer bookings are also down 25% among European tourists at Accor SA hotels — which Chief Executive Officer Sébastien Bazin said could be attributed to border detentions creating a “bad buzz” and diverting tourists to other destinations.

“US tariff announcements and a more aggressive stance toward historical allies have hurt global opinions about the US,” Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Megan Peters said in a March 31 report.

“This headwind provides another reason — in addition to the more direct negative impacts of tariffs and drag on exports from foreign retaliation that are already built into our US GDP forecast — why US GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025,” they said.

Despite the worsening outlook, Oregon’s tourism commission — known as Travel Oregon — is continuing efforts to attract foreign visitors, said CEO Todd Davidson. His team just came back from a trip to pitch the state at an adventure tourism conference in Vancouver, and in the coming weeks they will be hosting sales and marketing partners from places like the UK, India and Brazil.

At the same time, they’re also contemplating whether the commission will need to shift its strategy more toward domestic visitors as the situation unfolds.

“Oregon is not and will not take its eye off those international markets,” Davidson said. “We will be here when our international visitors feel that they are ready to return.”

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Xi makes a case for free trade as he tours Southeast Asia

https://apnews.com/article/china-malaysia-xi-jinping-southeast-asia-tour-559757744cd48ca28a5171fe5071f9cc

BANGKOK (AP) — China’s Xi is making the case for free trade as he tours Southeast Asia this week, presenting China as a source of “stability and certainty.”

On Monday, he was welcomed to Hanoi with pomp and ceremony by Vietnam’s President Luong Cuong.

He arrived in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia’s capital, later Tuesday, for a three-day visit and will end his tour with a stop in Cambodia.

In Hanoi, Xi had a meeting with Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, where he said the two countries “have brought the world valuable stability and certainty” in a “turbulent world.” He also paid respects at the mausoleum of Ho Chi Minh, the founder of the Vietnamese Communist Party.

“As beneficiaries of economic globalization, both China and Vietnam should strengthen strategic resolve, jointly oppose unilateral bullying acts, uphold the global free trade system, and keep global industrial and supply chains stable,” he added, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

China and Vietnam signed a series of memorandums on cooperation in supply chains and a joint railway project, and Xi also promised greater access for Vietnamese agricultural exports to China, although few details were made public about the agreements.

U.S. President Donald Trump complained about the meeting, which comes days after his tariffs upended global markets and left governments across the world scrambling. Reacting to the meeting Monday, Trump said China and Vietnam were trying “to figure out how do we screw the United States of America.”


In Malaysia, Xi is expected to discuss a free trade agreement between China and 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nation, as Malaysia is chair of the association this year. Xi will meet with King Sultan Ibrahim on Wednesday morning and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim later in the day.

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn told Chinese state media that the agreement will eliminate many tariffs between China and the bloc’s members. “We will bring more tariffs down to zero in many cases, and then expand to all the areas,” he said in an interview with CGTN, the state broadcaster’s English channel.

Malaysia is home to several Belt and Road Initiative projects, including a $11.2 billion Chinese railway project. China is also its largest trading partner and a top source of foreign direct investment.

Xi’s tour was likely planned before the tariff announcements had disrupted the global economy.

“From the Chinese perspective, it’s mostly about ensuring China’s influence in the region remains strong and vibrant, with Southeast Asia being China’s major trading partner,” said Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at Singapore’s Institute of International Affairs.

However, the trip’s timing and the fact that Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, were all countries impacted by Trump’s tariffs, provides Beijing an opportunity to project how it would act as a “responsible” superpower, one of China’s long-time stances.

“China can offer a lot to Vietnam and other ASEAN countries during this volatile period,” said Nguyen Thanh Trung, a professor of Vietnamese studies at Fulbright University Vietnam. “I think China can be a leader.”

Anwar called China a “true friend” during Li Qiang’s visit in June and has visited China three times since he took power in November 2022.

China’s claims to the South China Sea are a point of contention with both Vietnam and Malaysia. Anwar vowed last September that Malaysia will not bow to demands by China to stop its oil and gas exploration in an oil-rich maritime area in the South China Sea as the activities are within the country’s waters.

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Economy forecasts gloomy for 2025

Pause in tariffs not enough to raise hopes

Paul Davidson

USA TODAY

Forecasters have a bleak outlook on the U.S. economy this year because of President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war – even amid his 90-day pause of the highest tariffs on more than 50 countries – and they see the odds of a recession as a toss-up.

The experts predict the economy will nearly stall in 2025, growing 0.8%, down from their projection of 1.7% just last month, according to the average estimate of 46 economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators on April 4 and April 7.

They reckon there’s a 47% chance of recession, up from 25% in February.

The economy grew a healthy 2.8% last year.

The poll was conducted after Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries on April 2 but before he announced a 90-day pause on duties as high as 50% on all nations other than China on April 9. Yet some of the surveyed economists interviewed April 11 noted that Trump, at the same time, has raised the import fee on Chinese shipments to an outsize 145%, more than offsetting the economic benefits of suspending the other charges.

“That adds up to even higher (total) tariffs,” said Barclays economist Marc Giannoni.

The total effective, or average, U.S. tariff on all imports is now 30%, Giannoni said, up from 23% when Trump announced the reciprocal duties. Before the trade war, the average U.S. tariff rate was 2% to 3%.

A separate survey of 31 experts this week – 21 of whom responded the day Trump announced the 90-day pause – reveals a similarly dour view, according to the poll by the National Association of Business Economics. They expect the economy to grow just 0.7% this year.

The average tariff rate should gradually fall to about 20% this year and 15% in 2026 as companies import fewer Chinese goods because of the high fees and increasingly source their products from other countries, Giannoni said. Still, he expects overall inflation to rise from 2.4% in March to 3.4% by the end of the year, based on the consumer price index.

‘Solid economy’ when the year began

Forecasters say the economy was likely to slow this year after a post-pandemic burst of activity but consumers were in generally good shape, with low debt and wage growth that was still outpacing inflation. The tariffs, however, are expected to drive up prices as manufacturers and retailers pass along much of the fees to consumers.

That’s likely to sap their spending power, which makes up about 70% of economic activity.

“We had a very solid economy at the beginning of the year,” Giannoni said, adding that the tariffs are “weakening activity and weakening demand.”

“It’s a massive shock,” said Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic, who expects the economy to grow 1% this year and believes the question of whether the nation tips into recession is a borderline call.

Inflation expectations highest since 1981

Giannoni figures the nation will experience a mild recession the second half of the year, with gross domestic product falling 1.5%, net job losses of less than 100,000 and the 4.2% unemployment rate peaking at 4.7%.

Besides the hit to consumer spending broadly, Bostjancic said the turmoil in the stock market has reduced the wealth of high-income Americans who have accounted for the lion’s share of consumption, causing those households to spend less. She also expects the Trump administration’s substantial layoffs to deliver another blow to the economy.

Consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since June 2022, and Americans’ inflation expectations a year from now rose to 6.7%, the highest since 1981, according to a survey by the University of Michigan.

Economists expect consumer spending to increase 0.9% this year, down from 2.8% in 2024, according to the Wolters Kluwer poll.

Disruption, uncertainty bad for growth

And while the 90-day pause on many tariffs grants a reprieve to many countries as well as consumers, “The disruption we are seeing and the uncertainty we are seeing is already bad for growth,” Giannoni said. “The 90-day pause is extending the uncertainty.” Business investment is projected to grow about 1.2% this year, down from 3.6% in 2024, according to the Wolters Kluwer survey.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, theoretically aimed at matching the fees other countries charge for U.S. shipments to their countries, included a minimum 10% fee and additional charges of up to 50% on more than 50 nations. Those took effect Wednesday.

The president already had imposed a 20% fee on China; 25% on imported steel and aluminum; 25% on all imported cars and light trucks; and 25% on some goods from Canada and Mexico not covered by a trade agreement.

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Bigworld, Here's a useful site for following Treasury yields (link below). Clicking on each maturity will also bring up its chart, which can be clicked to get longer term charts, etc -


Yields for all maturities -

https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/


10 year Treasury chart -

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y




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>>> The inevitable Trump bailouts are on the way


Yahoo Finance

by Rick Newman

April 1, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commentary-the-inevitable-trump-bailouts-are-on-the-way-210916441.html


First, tariffs. Then, bailouts. We’ve seen this show before and a rerun is now airing.

As everybody knows by now, President Trump is rolling out protectionist tariffs much more aggressively than during his first term. Trump has so far imposed new tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, automobiles, and many other goods. A slew of additional tariffs is coming this month. On the whole, Goldman Sachs estimates that the average tax on imports will rise from about 2.5% at the start of the year to around 15% by the time all of Trump’s tariffs are in place.

Many nations facing new taxes on the goods they ship to the United States will retaliate by raising their own tariffs on US products or shifting to suppliers in other countries. That’s what happened during Trump’s first trade war in 2018 and 2019, and it’s happening again in 2025.

American farmers bore much of the pain from retaliatory trade actions during Trump Trade War I, and they’re in the crosshairs again during Trump Trade War II. So Trump is likely to do what he did the first time around: offer bailouts to farmers to counteract the damage caused by his policies.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is already telling farm communities that the Trump administration “will work around the clock to ensure that we have the programs in place to do what we did the last time.” She’s referring to a bailout program that ultimately paid farmers $23 billion in 2018 and 2019 to compensate for losses they endured from declining sales in foreign markets.

Trump is nonchalant about farmers’ predicament. On March 3, he posted on social media, “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States … Have fun!”

His exhortation was unconvincing. “Farmers are frustrated,” Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, answered in a statement. “Tariffs are not something to take lightly and 'have fun' with. Soybean farmers still have not fully recovered market volumes from the damaging impacts of the 2018 trade war, and this will further exacerbate economic hardship on our farmers.”

Trump’s logic of replacing foreign demand with higher domestic sales doesn’t apply to many agricultural products. The United States is a net exporter of soybeans, sorghum, and pork, for instance. Those were the three agricultural product categories hurt most by the first Trump trade war. Since those farmers produce more than America consumes, Trump would somehow have to convince Americans to eat a lot more bacon, tofu, and baked goods for his concept to pan out.

Since that’s not likely to happen, farmers are bracing for a replay of Trump Trade War I, and possibly worse. In response to Trump’s tariffs in 2018 and 2019, six trading partners — Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and Turkey — retaliated in some way with tariffs or other punitive measures on American exports. Chinese retaliation caused the most damage. Soybeans accounted for 71% of total lost agricultural trade, according to a 2022 analysis by the Dept. of Agriculture. Sorghum accounted for 6% of lost trade, and pork 5%. The hardest-hit farm states were Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, and Minnesota.

Altogether, that trade war slashed agricultural exports by $27 billion, according to the USDA study. Trump tapped a USDA lending arm to dole out $23 billion in farm aid, which did not require congressional approval. But many farmers found the aid program to be convoluted and slow to deliver. Farm bankruptcies jumped 20% from 2018 to 2019. And lost markets didn’t automatically return once Trump lost his 2020 reelection bid and Joe Biden undid many of Trump’s tariffs.

The damage could be greater in 2025. Trump’s tariffs are already more sweeping than during his first term. Trade partner retaliation has been modest so far, but that’s only because many nations are waiting to see the full extent of Trump’s actions before responding. Trade wars are usually tit-for-tat battles of attrition, and punitive measures against the United States will likely end up proportional to whatever Trump imposes.

Competing exporters are also eager to capitalize on Trump’s protectionism. One big beneficiary of Trump’s first trade war was Brazil, which stepped in to sell China and other nations many of the food products they no longer got from the United States. China’s trade relationships with South American nations have steadily improved since then, and China helped build a new “megaport” in Peru to accommodate higher trade volumes.

Outside of agriculture, Trump can’t offer cash aid to businesses the way he can by tapping the USDA lending arm. But he can tweak tariffs and other measures in almost limitless ways to help favored companies or punish the unlucky. This, too, he did during his first trade war.

Since Trump has the power to impose tariffs unilaterally, he can change them at any time in nearly any way he wants. One way this happens is through the exemption process, which allows anybody to ask for relief from a particular trade policy.

During Trump’s first term, businesses and other applicants applied for roughly 125,000 tariff exemptions. The Trump administration granted about one-third of them. Those weren’t bailouts, exactly. But there were doubtless instances in which businesses gained an edge on the competition by virtue of these “opaque handouts,” as the Peterson Institute for International Economics described the exemptions.

Nobody is sure how far Trump’s tariffs will go. Maybe not even Trump himself. Some trade partners will make concessions that lead Trump to back down from tariff threats. But others will dig in their heels, convinced that Trump is imposing more pain at home than he is anywhere else. Bailouts will dull some of the pain, but most of the recipients will wish they were unnecessary.

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>>> 'This is the crisis moment': Political scientist says Trump crossed a crucial red line


MSN

by Sarah K. Burris

4-14-25


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/this-is-the-crisis-moment-political-scientist-says-trump-crossed-a-crucial-red-line/ar-AA1CUf1i?ocid=TobArticle&cvid=d48495fbeb1243d5abad366eeaa3d77d&ei=39


Jacob Levy, Tomlinson Professor of Political Theory at McGill University,cautioned in a Blue Sky thread that the case involving a Maryland man the U.S. government acknowledges was "wrongfully deported" has reached a "crisis moment."

In March, Kilmar Ábrego García was accused of being an MS-13 gang member and deported to El Salvador along with others whom the U.S government alleged were dangerous. The deportation was carried out despite a U.S. judge telling the government that it could not deport García to El Salvador.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the government to facilitate the return of García to the U.S.

During a press conference with El Salvador President Nayib Bukele on Monday, the Associated Press reported that Trump passed the buck to Attorney General Pam Bondi, who said she would "facilitate" García's return by ensuring a plane was available. Bukele, however, said he would not release a terrorist to the U.S.

"I had been doubtful that we were going to have a 'this is the crisis moment' with Trump, as opposed to 'everything about this is a destructive catastrophe.' But the Abrego Garcia case is the crisis moment," wrote Levy in response.

"An [sic] firm, open commitment to the destruction of habeas corpus — the creation of a new rule that says anyone the administration orders ICE to seize can be shoved onto a flight to a torture prison in another country and there's nothing any US court can do about it— destroys constitutionalism," he alleged.

"The fact that the administration is, *at the same time,* announcing an intention to include US citizens in the shipments to El Salvador makes it all the more plain and open — but the rule they're embracing in the Ábrego García case already includes citizens by implication," Levy continued.

"Add on DOJ's arguments in the Ozturk case: even if a person was seized by ICE for reasons that violate the First Amendment, i.e. for plainly protected speech, they'll be treated as outside habeas protection, and by the way, we can keep dodging federal court jurisdiction by moving the prisoner," he added.

The Ozturk case involves Tufts University student Rumeysa Ozturk, who was detained by ICE and later deported. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said that Ozturk was detained for co-authoring an op-ed criticizing Israel's conduct in Gaza.

"The slope isn't slippery; the frog isn't gradually getting boiled," Levy said in the thread. "Within its first hundred days, the Trump administration has openly asserted the right/power to seize and imprison anyone — including political dissidents, including citizens — and deprive them of any legal recourse at all."

"If that's not the crisis, nothing is," he closed.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> How the bond market helped make Trump blink on tariffs: 'I was watching it.'


Yahoo Fiance

Alexandra Canal

April 10, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-the-bond-market-helped-make-trump-blink-on-tariffs-i-was-watching-it-194503283.html


President Trump hit the pause button on reciprocal tariffs — and the bond market convinced him.

In the lead-up to the president's pivot, markets were unraveling: Stocks slid sharply, with the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market. But the real alarm bell? A sharp, unexpected surge in long-term Treasury yields — a move that seemed to force the president’s hand.

"The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it," Trump admitted to reporters shortly after the announcement. "People were getting a little queasy."

At its highs of the week on Wednesday, the 10-year yield (^TNX) traded at 4.47%, a massive 60 basis point swing from Monday's low of 3.87% and the biggest three-day jump since December 2001.

Notably, Wednesday's surge pushed the 10-year yield back to late-February levels, an unsettling signal for a president who has long pressed for lower rates. The 30-year Treasury yield faced a similar trajectory, jumping as much as 25 basis points this week to hit its highest level since November 2023. At its peak, the three-day jump marked the steepest climb in long-term yields since the 2020 pandemic shock.

The 10-year yield slightly retreated Thursday following Trump's pivot, but the relief was short-lived. Shortly after the market close, yields were back around 4.4%.

"Welcome to the world where bonds rule," Kathy Jones, chief rates strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance of the whipsaw market developments. "You can do a lot of things, but when the bond market tells you you're wrong, then you've got a problem."

Jones noted that bonds are closely connected to several key aspects of the market, such as stock valuations, borrowing costs, interest rates, and overall financial conditions.

"When that goes wrong, you pretty much have everything wrong. That's the lesson," she said. "And the market will tell you when you're wrong by blowing everything up."

As market turmoil escalated, warnings from economists and top business leaders grew louder.

Early Wednesday, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned on Fox Business that a tariff-induced recession was becoming increasingly "likely," adding that the negative market reaction "could get worse if we don't make some progress" on negotiations.

Trump took notice. He directly referenced Dimon's interview later that day, calling him “very smart and very genius financially.” According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, the president was watching Fox Business in real-time and asked aides to reconsider the full scope of the planned tariff hikes shortly afterward.

Despite a brief rally late Wednesday, stocks reversed course as investors shifted their focus to China, which now faces a staggering 145% tariff rate after Beijing enacted retaliatory levies of 84% on US goods.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) slipped slightly to around 4.4%, still holding near those late-February highs amid ongoing trade jitters.

The bond market's unraveling

The bond market serves as a "cash collateral" of sorts to US and global investors who can then borrow money and bet on riskier assets like stocks. It's also viewed as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, which has been the word du jour — even while Wall Street remains on edge because shifting trade dynamics could induce a self-inflicted recession.

"Where else are the world’s investors going to turn when they’re seeking a safe haven, if not in Treasuries (and also to some extent, the almighty US dollar)?" Fundstrat asked in a research note on Thursday. "The answer to that question has always been: nowhere else."

"But with inflation concerns still lingering," the note continued, "The latest turmoil in global markets sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign and recent developments in geopolitics appear to have some questioning whether it still is."

Wall Street analysts have floated several theories to explain recent yield volatility, from sticky inflation and a cautious Fed to a shift from bonds to cash and thinning Treasury market liquidity.

Ongoing uncertainty stemming from inconsistent trade dynamics has only added to the instability.

According to Jones, this uncertainty is likely to continue influencing bond markets in the near term. She warned that yields could potentially surge to 5% under more turbulent trade conditions, describing it as a scenario of “more chaos in the market and more unwinding of capital.”

Nonetheless, she maintains a baseline forecast of 3.8% for the 10-year Treasury yield.

The unwinding of the popular (and potentially risky) basis trade — along with the potential of bond boycotts overseas — has also spooked Wall Street. The basis trade, a highly leveraged trading strategy most often used by hedge funds, occurs when traders attempt to profit from a small price gap between Treasury futures and actual government bonds.

The basic idea is to buy the bonds at a cheaper price and "short" the more expensive futures contract with the hope the two prices will eventually merge. Think of it this way: Let's say you buy a concert ticket for $100 today, but your friend agrees to pay you $110 for the ticket five days before the show. As the initial buyer, you know the two prices will eventually merge the closer you get to the concert, and can then lock in that small profit of $10.

The problem? Hedge funds use a lot of borrowed money to do this at scale — sometimes up to 100 times in leveraged bets — which means if the price gap worsens, those small moves can create significant losses.

Another looming risk: foreign investors offloading US Treasurys.

Tensions with China have sparked fears that Beijing could aggressively pull back on purchases, an unsettling prospect given China’s role as a major holder of US debt. While Japan remains the largest single holder, China’s participation is still crucial when it comes to demand.

According to Torsten Sløk, partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, the parent of Yahoo Finance, foreign investors currently hold around $7 trillion in US Treasurys, roughly 30% of the total market. A pullback in that demand would likely drive long-term yields even higher.

Still, Jones said that isn't her biggest concern, at least not right now.

"We're still looking at the highest tariff level in 100 years and a high level of uncertainty," she said. "I think that there are plenty of other risks to worry about."

<<<



---

[ombowstring]

Yeah, we can talk about these things, but there's not really much we can do about them. So it's good and fun to exchange our ideas, but what matters most is how these things affect us and what we should do in our own individual situations, mostly as concerns our investment decisions.

I get the sense from talking to people around here that they seem literally petrified to say where they are from, but there are many, many people from Central and South America, and Europe, here working all kinds of jobs. Some local people are interested in taking these jobs, but there are just too many openings for locals to fill.

I got this from Gemini -

>> Year-Round Population: The year-round population of Cape Cod is approximately 230,000 as of recent estimates (around 2022-2024).

Summer Population: During the peak summer months, the population swells to over 500,000. This represents more than double the year-round population. <<

There's an enormous need for chambermaids, restaurant workers, and workers in the retail industry on the Cape to service the tourists that come here year after year. Also, there's a tremendous need for laborers in the farming industry. Who's going to pick the strawberries if migrants don't? I saw a dairy farmer on TV say that if he didn't have migrants to help him, there wouldn't be any milk. And the list goes on and on. So we are going to see serious repercussions to the US economy if these workers don't want to come here anymore or are thrown out of the country.

[gfp927z]

Om, Yes, it looks like an endless array of problems ahead for the economy, markets, corporate earnings, etc. The uncertainty and angst from the US (TRUMP) can chase countries out the US orbit and right into the arms of BRICS. That wasn't his goal, but Trump may have shortened the remaining lifespan of the US Empire. It was already in decline, but the 'Trump onslaught' could be the key factor that puts a fork in it. Countries shun the US dollar and US Treasuries, decide to trade among themselves, and the US becomes increasingly isolated. Having US prosperity so tied to the US dollar reserve system means that when it goes, so do we..



---

[gfp927z]

Btw, here are the latest 'Core' stock holdings (below) -- a total of 33 buy / hold type stocks. The top 14 have somewhat larger positions than the lower 19 stocks, but all positions are fairly modest in size ($500 - $1700 range). Key selection criteria are the steadiness and trajectory of the 10-15 year chart, plus the company's 'numbers', which are 23 metrics like PE, margins, ROA / ROE, net income, revenue and earnings growth, cash / debt levels, div payout ratio, size of short position, etc, and some of these stocks are also Berkshire holdings. So should be a decent group of LT stocks -

(14)

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co (AJG) Insurance broker (49 Bil) --------------------------------------- 1.0% (Financial)

Autozone (AZO) - Automotive replacement parts and accessories (45 Bil) -------------------- 0% (Transport)

Brown + Brown (BRO) - Insurance broker (17 Bil) -------------------------------------------------- 0.8% (Financial)

Chubb (CB) - Insurance (97 Bil) (HQ in Switzerland) (Berkshire, 3%) ----------------------- 1.5% (Financial)

Cintas (CTAS) - Uniforms, maintenance services (52 Bil) ----------------------------------------- 1.1% (Services)

Marsh & McLennan (MMC) - Insurance broker, services (96 Bil) (former Berkshire) ----- 1.4% (Financial)

O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) - Auto parts, supplies (55 Bil) --------------------------------------- 0% (Transport)

Procter + Gamble (PG) - personal care products (357 Bil) (former Berkshire) ------------- 2.5% (Consumer)

Progressive Corp (PGR) - Insurance (83 Bil) -------------------------------------------------------- 0.3% (Financial)

Republic Services (RSG) - Waste management services, recycling (47 Bil) (Gates) ----- 1.4% (Services)

Thomson Reuters (TRI) - Business information svcs (102 Bil) (Canada) ------------- 1.5% (Services)

TransDigm (TDG) - Aircraft components (48 Bil) ------------------------------------------------------ 0% (Industrial)

Waste Connections (WCN) - Waste services (32 Bil) (Canada) -------------------------------- 0.8% (Services)

Waste Management (WM) - Waste services (60 Bil) (Gates) ------------------------------------ 1.8% (Services)


__________________________________________________________________


(19)

Aon PLC (AON) - Financial services, insurance broker (73 Bil) (Ireland) (Berkshire) ---- 0.8% (Financial)

Apple (AAPL) - Smartphones, computers (3.5 T) (Berkshire, 26%) --------------------------- 0.4% (Technology)

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - Business outsourcing solutions (108 Bil) ----------- 2.1% (IT Services)

Casey's General Stores (CASY) - Convenience stores, self serv gasoline (10 Bil) -------- 0.6% (Retail)

CME Group (CME) - Futures and options exchanges (90 Bil) ----------------------------------- 4.3% (Financial)

Coca Cola (KO) - Beverages (244 Bil) (Berkshire, 11%) ----------------------------------------- 3.2% (Consumer)

Costco (COST) - Discount variety warehouse outlets (233 Bil) (Munger) -------------------- 0.6% (Retail)

Mastercard (MA) - Financial services, credit transactions (444 Bil) (Berkshire) ------------ 0.6% (Financial)

McDonalds (MCD) - Fast food restaurants (195 Bil) (Berkshire) ------------------------------- 2.2% (Consumer)

Microsoft (MSFT) - Software (1.9 Tril) (Gates) ------------------------------------------------------ 1.1% - (Technology)

Moodys Corp (MCO) - Financial services, analytics (58 Bil) (Berkshire, 4%) --------------- 1.0% (Financial)

Old Republic Intl (ORI) - Diversified insurance (8 Bil) --------------------------------------------- 3.4% (Financial)

RELX Plc (RELX) - Information based analytics and decision tools (74 Bil) (UK) ----------- 1.9% (IT Services)

RLI Corp (RLI) - Insurance (6 Bil) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.8% (Financial)

TJX Companies (TJX) - Apparel discount retail (126 Bil) ------------------------------------------ 1.5% (Retail)

VeriSign (VRSN) - Domain name registry services (Berkshire) (20 Bil) ------------------------ 0% (Technology)

Verisk Analytics (VRSK) - Data analytics solutions (35 Bil) -------------------------------------- 0.6% (IT Services)

Visa (V) - Credit services (534 Bil) (Berkshire) ------------------------------------------------------- 0.8% (Financial)

WR Berkley (WRB) - Insurance (19 Bil) ----------------------------------------------------------------- 0.6% (Financial)

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, The SVIX finally gets a pop, but it was delayed ~ 1 week compared to SPY, SSO. Nice to see it up, but it's lucky that the stock rally didn't stall out today or reverse, since the SVIX would have then produced zip in profits vrs the SPY / SSO. Just sayin.

Fwiw, I grabbed some decent profits today on the S+P 500 ETFs, bringing the stock allocation back down to 6% from 14%. Probably sold early, but I figure it's better than watching the profits evaporate. With the news flow so unpredictabel these days, I figure 'Grab it while it's there' is not a bad strategy :o)

I had planned to wait for 5500 on the S+P 500, but chickened out, and figure the remaining 6% stock allocation is enough to have at risk right now. I'd really like to grab those profits too, but am trying to keep a modest 'Core' LT position. But literally anything can come out of Trump's mouth at any time to re-tank the stock market, so it seems even more casino-like than ever.



---

[ombowstring]

In addition to all the aforementioned problems, the Trump administration has abandoned Ukraine to the murderous Putin. Ukraine will probably not accept any peace deal that Trump negotiates with the Russian dictator so it looks like Europe should, and hopefully will, step up before the Russian army occupies freedom-seeking Ukraine.

[ombowstring]

Trump tariffs on China will soon bring ‘irreversible’ damage to many American businesses

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-tariffs-on-china-mean-irreversible-damage-for-most-businesses.html

China urges Trump to correct mistakes and heed ‘rational voices’ on reciprocal tariffs

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/china-urges-trump-to-heed-rational-voices-on-reciprocal-tariffs.html

Investors are growing concerned about a U.S. asset exodus as Treasurys and the dollar decline

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/investors-are-growing-concerned-about-a-us-asset-exodus-as-treasuries-and-the-dollar-decline.html

[ombowstring]

Danger, Will Robinson!

Danger, Will Robinson! - YouTube

DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER - LOST IN SPACE - YouTube

Lost In Space - Danger Danger - You Tube

Billionaire Ray Dalio: ‘I’m worried about something worse than a recession’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/13/billionaire-ray-dalio-im-worried-about-something-worse-than-a-recession.html

Jamie Dimon says a recession is ‘likely outcome’ from Trump’s tariff turmoil
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/jamie-dimon-says-a-recession-is-likely-outcome-from-trumps-tariff-turmoil.html

Fed’s Kashkari says rising bond yields, falling dollar show investors are moving on from the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/financial-advisors/

[gfp927z]

Time to get the heck out of Dodge?

---

[gfp927z]

Om, Some of Trump's instincts / judgement have ended like this (below). Should we be worried?

---

[gfp927z]

Om, >> Trump goes with his gut <<

Yes, his instincts. And in business those same 'instincts' led to 4 bankruptcies. So Trump is clearly capable of poor judgement, and also of not learning from past mistakes. We basically have a riverboat gambler in the WH -


>>> The Four Times Donald Trump Has Declared Bankruptcy

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/rubio-campaign-press-release-the-four-times-donald-trump-has-declared-bankruptcy

Bankruptcy #1: The Trump Taj Mahal, 1991:

The first Trump-tied bankruptcy, in 1991, was of Trump's biggest Atlantic City casino, the Trump Taj Mahal, whose $1 billion construction was financed by junk bonds at a staggeringly high interest rate of 14 percent. Its glitzy unveiling fell flat amid slumps in Atlantic City and the broader U.S. economy, leaving the Trump firm more than $3 billion in debt." (The Washington Post, 8/7/15)

Bankruptcy #2: Trump Plaza Hotel, 1992:

"Trump acquired the Plaza Hotel in New York for $390 million in 1988. By 1992, the hotel had accumulated $550 million in debt. As a result of the bankruptcy, in exchange for easier terms on which to pay off the debts, Trump relinquished a 49 percent stake in the Plaza to a total of six lenders, according to ABC News. Trump remained the hotel's CEO, but it was merely a gesture — he didn't earn a salary and had no say in the hotel's day-to-day operations, according to the New York Times." (PolitiFact, 9/21/15)

Bankruptcy #3: Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts, 2004:

"Donald J. Trump's casino empire has filed for bankruptcy protection after months of negotiations with bondholders over restructuring a crushing debt. Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts Inc. and numerous related operations filed for protection from its creditors under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code on Sunday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Camden, N.J. The Trump casino business consists mainly of three Atlantic City properties and a riverboat casino in Indiana and are only a small part of Trump's overall real estate empire." (The Associated Press, 11/22/04)

Bankruptcy #4: Trump Entertainment Resorts, 2009:

"Trump Entertainment Resorts — formerly Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts — was hit hard by the 2008 economic recession and missed a $53.1 million bond interest payment in December 2008, according to ABC News. After debating with the company's board of directors, Trump resigned as the company's chairman and had his corporate stake in the company reduced to 10 percent. The company continued to use Trump's name in licensing.So four Trump companies filed for Chapter 11 reorganization." (PolitiFact, 9/21/15)



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> potential gain is much greater <<

Here's a comparison of SVIX vrs SSO and SPXL (2X and 3X long S+P 500 ETFs) in both up and down markets (see below, approx figures). While SVIX does have more potential upside in a rising market, as a short term trading vehicle I don't like the way it hasn't bounced during last week's market rebound. It's probably the choppy nature of that rebound that threw the SVIX off, since it's based on volatility, but this 'disconnect' from the stock market's actual movements could really screw up a short term trade. Using SPY, I'm getting ready to take profits soon, and in comparison the SVIX hasn't even bounced yet. Anyway, something to consider. Just curious if Rinear has been using SVIX and UVXY for his trading? Thanks.


Up Market - (Aug 2024) -

SVIX -- up 86%
SPXL - up 31%
SSO -- up 22%

Down Market (from Feb high to April low) -

SVIX -- down 65%
SPXL - down 52%
SSO -- down 39%



---

[ombowstring]

Trump goes with his gut and the world goes along for the ride

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-presidential-power-instinct-decision-making-3d1215e5675ef534bbebe8dfe8f136a5

[ombowstring]

We have soybeans and other agricultural products. China has cheap labor. So we trade with them. That's all fair and good. It's true that we are overly dependent on other countries for products vital to our national security and well-being. The government should probably encourage more manufacturing in the US just as Europe realizes that they can't depend upon us anymore. And yes, it's true they are guilty of stealing our intellectual property, but you don't try to resolve these problems by entering into trade wars. To make goods extraordinarily expensive for the American public in the attempt to combat these problems is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. That's the approach an unintelligent man would make.

[ombowstring]

Market chaos signals 'sell America' trade as Trump tariff whipsaw threatens to upend the US economy's soft landing

Trump's mischief could get us into big trouble. Investors and foreign nations leaving the US markets -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-chaos-signals-sell-america-trade-as-trump-tariff-whipsaw-threatens-to-upend-the-us-economys-soft-landing-133045914.html

[bigworld]

Rinear: April 13th, 2025
*****************************
Financial Intelligence Report

The Newsletter for people willing to take control of their financial future

**********************************************************************************

Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary

Simply Stupid.

Tariff, tariff, tariff. For a week now it's all you've heard. TV, Radio, you name it and it's tariffs.

Are you sick of hearing it? I am. But it's not tariffs that are the problem. The problem is that you've got two superpowers locking horns. This is a dangerous game, and frankly it was greedy stupid people that got us into this mess in the first place.

I was in high school in the early 70's. Plant after plant was closing down in a very industrial part of New Jersey. The reason? They were moving production to Asia. As time passed, these geniuses got the big idea that they'd let China be the manual laborer and the US would be the brains of the operation.

I was just your average every day kid. But it seemed stupid to me. Why? If you let another country make most of your products, what happens if you have a "falling out?" What happens if you're not friends any more? What happens if a fight breaks out and the country doing most of the producing, simply refuses to send you goods?

The argument is that they would never, because they'd lose the money being paid for the products. Well yeah, that's great when everyone's buddy-buddy. But when tempers flare, you have to consider who you're fighting. Sometimes I think that gets lost on people.

Question, is China a communist country? That's NOT an easy question to answer, so let me post what AI said about it...

China’s political system is complex and doesn’t fit neatly into a single label. Officially, the People’s Republic of China is governed by the Communist Party of China (CPC), which describes its ideology as "socialism with Chinese characteristics." This is rooted in Marxist-Leninist principles, but in practice, it blends state control with significant market-oriented reforms.

Since the late 1970s, under leaders like Deng Xiaoping, China has embraced capitalist elements—private enterprise, foreign investment, and market competition—while maintaining strict political control. The state still owns major industries, controls key sectors like banking and energy, and enforces one-party rule, with no tolerance for challenges to CPC authority. There’s no private property in the Western sense for land (it’s leased from the state), and the government heavily influences economic planning.
However, China’s economy is far from the centralized, collectivist model of classic communism. It’s the world’s second-largest economy, driven by private businesses, tech giants, and global trade. Citizens have personal freedoms in daily life—travel, entrepreneurship, consumption—but political dissent, free speech, and organizing outside the CPC are tightly restricted.

So, is it communist? In name and structure, the CPC claims it. In practice, it’s a hybrid: authoritarian with communist rhetoric, but economically pragmatic, prioritizing growth and stability over ideological purity... to a point. The label "communist" alone oversimplifies things—China’s system is its own beast.

But let's be real here. They love the "income" from western buyers of their products, but they control everything that goes on. China's leadership is unyielding about control.

The world is NOT far removed from a guy named "Mao." Remember him? Yeah the communist nutjob that through various schemes of "making equality" and via way of brutal enforcement, killed millions. How many? Let's see...

Chair Professor of Humanities at the University of Hong Kong and the author of Mao's Great Famine, estimated that at least 45 million people died from starvation, overwork and state violence during the Great Leap Forward, claiming his findings to be based on access to recently opened local and provincial

Do any of you know when that was? Are you thinking 1910? 1925? 1940? No folks, from 1958 - 1961 Mao's communist regime starved out over 40 million OF HIS OWN PEOPLE just 70 years ago.

Mao was killing his own folks, the day I was born. So, why do I bring this up? While China wants to appear to the world as becoming democratic, it is nothing of the sort. They have social credit scores and if your score is too low you can't travel, and in some instances buy food. During covid they built concentration camps and hundreds of thousands were locked in them for months.

Then we have the issue of them stealing stuff from us.

F-35 Fighter Jet data - Stolen via cyberattacks; used for China’s J-20 stealth fighter.
Lockheed Martin F-22 data - for China’s J-31 fighter.
Missile guidance - Tech stolen to enhance Chinese missile systems.
NASA space tech - Hacked data on propulsion and materials research.
Chip designs worth billions were taken for China’s memory chip industry.
Nuclear missile sensors - Infrared detection tech stolen for military applications.
Boeing C-17 Data - Military transport plane specs hacked, linked to China’s Y-20.
Apple’s Self-Driving Car Tech - An ex-employee took secrets to a Chinese startup.
Chip technology - theft via partnerships to advance Chinese semiconductors.
Nuclear reactor designs - AP1000 tech taken during a joint venture.
American radio systems - Proprietary tech stolen by Hytera, a Chinese enterprise.
American semiconductor processes - Targeted in cyberattacks to close China’s tech gap.
Software code - theft via espionage for Chinese tech firms.

My point is simple They say they're a stand up nation, fair and equitable. It's bullshit and, In a butt-ugly fight with the US, they couldn't give a rat's ass if their population suffered for a while, as they shut off shipments to the US.

Oh sure, we can do without their gewgaws and gizmo's for a while, but not for long. China is a major global supplier of car parts, with its exports reaching $34.8 billion in 2018 alone. Specifically, China is a significant source of electronics, wiring, and interior components for vehicles, and it is also a major supplier of parts for both traditional combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles. Need a new alternator for your car? Sorry.

How about some new appliances? In 2024, China exported 4.48 billion household appliances, a 20.8% increase over the previous year. Not all of them came to the US, but a huge portion did. What do you do when you need a new one?

But it's not even the car parts, the toasters, the washing machines, the freezers and all that. What about antibiotics and other medicines? China's the largest manufacturer of antibiotics in the world. They make almost 100% of the worlds bandages of various kinds.

Chinese shipments of cardiovascular medicine as well as cancer treatments are notable to watch given their importance to US healthcare infrastructure and because they are some of the fastest growing trade flows, increasing some 1147 and 401 percent respectively since 2017.

China makes a lot of the world's active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). 70% of US drugs use API's made in China. Got Diabetes? China could shut you off. Oh but Bob, we can get it from India! Sorry, India imports tons of its API's from China to make medicines. China could tell the Indians, no more API's if it's going to the US.

I could go on and on, but you get my drift. They're NOT fair trading partners and if push comes to shove, they'd gladly let 50 million + of their people croak if it meant bringing the US to its knees.

This is a danger that I think Donald Trump is well aware of, and thus his calls for making ever more product here. It won't be easy, but has to be done. The boneheads that let China control so much of our important medicines should be shot for treason. Just sayin.

So, it's NOT just tariffs folks. It truly is national security. Let's hope calm heads prevail, and let's stop sending Ukraine billions, and make pharmaceutical plants here instead. It's that important.

[bigworld]

gfp: If the market rallies the VIX will drop by half or more. So the potential gain is much greater. Looking t the chart it is not hard to see SVIX going up to the $18-$20 area in a relatively short time. Sell offs like the one we had are emotion driven animals. A week of trending upward and the buy the dip FOMO investors will come back in. If SVIX can get back up to $18-$20 I'll cash out and wait for the next trading opportunity.

[ombowstring]

So could a CBDC replace the dollar and in that way wipe out the national debt?

[gfp927z]

Om, Here's the main reason to dislike Trump imo -

Trump's sudden flip from being strongly anti-crypto to being a huge crypto cheerleader was so he could line his pockets from his own meme coins, his own family of ETFs (including a crypto ETF), his own Stablecoin, and now he's jumping into crypto mining. This level of blatant profiteering by a sitting President is bad enough, but far worse is that Trump's 'green light' to crypto is enabling the plumbing buildout for the eventual CBDC. The CBDC infrastructure is going into place at warp speed thanks to the Donald's sudden reversal on crypto. Trump still claims to be anti CBDC, but he completely sold out to the finance ghouls in order to line his own pockets. If you want to see an actual 666 beast system in operation, just wait until the CBDC is in place.

China is the pioneer of CBDC, and it basically gives the government total behavioral control over the population. That's not an exaggeration since with CBDC they can literally 'switch off' a person's use of money, so it's total control. You barely hear a word of protest from the US media concerning Trump's off the charts crypto profiteering, and that's because Trump is enabling the buildout of the CBDC. In the long run, this is by far the worst aspect of having Trump in the WH imo. Conservative Republicans were strongly anti-CBDC, which forced the Fed to slow its development. But with Trump leading the crypto charge, the CBDC plumbing is going in without any opposition.


>>> The Trump Family Is Going All-In on Crypto Projects, From Bitcoin Mining to Stablecoins


Bloomberg

by Teresa Xie and Olga Kharif

April 12, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-family-going-crypto-projects-140000972.html


(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump and his family have taken a interest in just about every corner of the crypto industry.

There are nonfungible tokens and digital collectibles; a decentralized finance project; a proposed stablecoin; an effort at Bitcoin mining; and a pair of memecoins, one for the president and one for First Lady Melania Trump.

Taken together, the various projects are approaching $1 billion in paper gains even after accounting for the latest round of trade war-induced market gyrations, according to Bloomberg calculations based on publicly available data.

Donald Trump is already the richest person to have ever become US president, and his non-crypto holdings include significant investments in real estate. After his first election in 2016, Trump’s lawyers created a trust to handle his business affairs. That was managed by his two eldest sons and by Allen Weisselberg, the longtime chief financial officer of Trump’s real estate company.

Eric Trump has emphasized that “there are no conflicts” related to the family’s crypto investments.

“I don’t work with the White House,” Eric Trump said during a Bloomberg TV interview in April. “We’ve believed in crypto for a long time.”

The president’s own public conversion to crypto is still relatively new. Trump called Bitcoin a “scam” as recently as 2021, telling Fox Business at the time that he didn’t like the token “because it’s another currency competing against the dollar” and that it should be regulated “very, very high.”

Trump’s relationship with the digital asset industry has evolved significantly since then. As a candidate, he courted and benefited from significant contributions to his reelection campaign from crypto executives and advocates.

In his second term, Trump has signed executive orders in support of his promise to make the US the crypto capital of the planet, installed David Sacks and Bo Hines to represent the interests of the industry, and continued to tout his memecoin with posts on Truth Social.

“Trump and his family seem eager to establish a broad foothold in the sector prior to further regulatory actions that are likely to boost cryptoasset valuations,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

Here’s how the Trump crypto portfolio has evolved.

Nonfungible Tokens: Dec. 2022

Trump became a crypto convert after falling in love with his own digital collectibles, known as nonfungible tokens.

Bill Zanker, a friend of Trump’s and the founder of adult-education company The Learning Annex, initially pitched him the idea. Since then, the Trump Trading Cards NFTs, which show him in a variety of poses and outfits (sometimes dressed as a superhero), have been spread out over four collections.

The president last year hosted dinners for fans who purchased his NFTs, which, according to financial disclosures, have brought in millions of dollars.

Decentralized Finance: Sept. 2024

The Trump family announced its crypto project World Liberty Financial ahead of the US election. Since its inception, the project has been buying up millions of dollars worth of other cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Tron, though has yet to offer promised DeFi services like lending crypto without any intermediaries.

A company affiliated with Trump receives 75% of net revenue as a fee, including the proceeds of token sales, according to offering documents. The Trump family owns 60% of the equity share of the World Liberty through their company DT Marks DeFi LLC.

The company has raised $550 million in token sales after completing a second round last month.

Zach Witkoff, one of World Liberty’s co-founders, is the son of Steve Witkoff, who helped connect the president’s family to other World Liberty Financial’s participants. Since the platform’s token sale in October, observers have raised questions about its potential conflicts of interest for the Trump family, given the administration’s sway over regulations.

Trump’s sons, Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron, are all listed as “Web3 Advisors” to World Liberty Financial. The family actively promotes the project through social media and public appearances.

Memecoins: Jan. 2025

The day before Trump’s inauguration, he and his wife, Melania, launched their own memecoins, a highly speculative corner of crypto in which the asset doesn’t have much intrinsic value. After an initial surge, which likely generated more than $11.4 million in fees for entities linked to the president in January alone, prices have tanked.

The foray was met with mixed reaction from the crypto industry, as many believed it hurt the push to appear more legitimate. Two Trump-linked entities — CIC Digital and Fight Fight Fight LLC — own 80% of the supply, a holding that will be unlocked over three years.

ETFs: Feb. 2025

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. said in early February that it had applied to trademark brands for investment products with themes that track Trump’s priorities, including a “Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus ETF.”

It has said it would work with Crypto.com to launch the ETF. The month before Trump’s election win, the SEC filed a notice that it intended to sue Crypto.com for operating an unregistered securities exchange. It closed its probe in March, according to the company.

Stablecoin: March 25

World Liberty Financial announced plans to launch its own dollar-tracking stablecoin called USD1, which will be initially minted on the Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain blockchains. The token will be backed one-to-one by short-term US Treasuries, dollar deposits and other cash equivalents, according to World Liberty.

The move came just ahead of landmark stablecoin legislation that advanced through the House Financial Services Committee, with crypto companies pitching stablecoins as a way to make global financial transactions cheaper and faster.

Bitcoin Mining: March 31

The Trump family said it plans to launch a Bitcoin mining-focused venture with Hut 8 Corp. Bitcoin miners were early supporters of Trump’s reelection campaign. In June 2024, then-candidate Trump hosted several mining executives at Mar-a-Lago, telling them he’d be an advocate for them in the White House.

The Bitcoin mining sector in the US has morphed into a multibillion dollar industry.

“Investing in crypto is no longer as simple as holding Bitcoin,” said Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke University. “There are many different crypto segments. Trump has a presence in lending, a future stablecoin, other cryptoassets, and now a mining operation.”

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[ombowstring]

There are so many different factors involved in the geopolitical situation as it stands now and as it will inevitably evolve that only God knows what is truly going on and how it will all play out and what should be so I think it's useless for us mere humans to think we know what the solutions to all these problems are. Mostly, I've of a mind to sit back and watch as I can't do much anyway but observe. But these tariffs are at base taxes on the American public. Trump thinks he's raising money for the government coffers, but he doesn't seem to realize (or so he pretends) that it's the American people who will be paying for these tariffs. And by raising tariffs on the automotive sector, he seems to be suggesting that we should stop buying cars. It seems like lunacy to me. He put one over on the public by saying he'd bring prices down, but he never had a plan to do so and probably he never intended to, either. He said it just to get elected so he could then do just whatever he wanted to.

Maybe there'll be a bounce in the markets because of the news about the semiconductors and computers, and maybe there'll be further bounces as deals and rumors of deals with other countries come to the forefront, but if and when the effects of these tariffs on the US economy and the loss of our standing in the world becomes evident, I think we're in for an economic downturn. Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink, among others, have predicted we're in for a recession and I trust that they know more than the assembled nitwits of the current administration.

[gfp927z]

Silver_bars, Trump's 'House of Wings' -

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[gfp927z]

Om, Yes, both the immigration and tariff strategies have big problems. With the tariffs, the idea is to re-industrialize the US, create lots of high paying jobs, and also make the US much less dependent on increasingly shaky global supply chains, etc. This all makes sense, but will take a lot of years, and as you said, the cost of labor is much higher in the US, so countries may decide not to move here even with the tariffs. And trying to do it too fast risks sending the economy into recession, the financial markets into crisis, etc. What the US really could use is a consistent long term 'industrial policy', rather than everything changing every 4 years. But there appears to be a broad consensus emerging for de-globalization, due to the rise of mega rivals like China and BRICS, and Covid also demonstrated how vulnerable our far flung supply chains had gotten.

With immigration, it's been the bizarre 'wide open border' policies of past Dem administrations that have led to the current crisis. They let in something like 14 million people, so totally nuts. To correct this is dangerous since it can normalize midnight roundups, goon squads, and lengthy detention (gulag system). 'Due process under the law' can also be dispensed with, so a slippery slope. Another question is why did US administrations deliberately let in so many people in the first place? Year after year they brought them in by the millions, put them up in hotels, etc. This was obviously a deliberate policy, so what was the reason? Not sure, but there are numerous possibilities.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Thanks. The tariff exemption just announced for tech products will hopefully give the market a further boost next week. This should get the S+P 500 back to 5500, and then we'll see how much further it gets in this move. Above 5500 would be 5600, and then the 50 and 200 MAs (5700 area). So these should be the next main targets on the chart, though might need some back + fill first before getting there.

Just curious about your use of SVIX as a bullish 'surrogate', rather than just using the SPY or a 2X long vehicle like SSO? The S+P 500 is up ~11% since bottoming Monday, but the SVIX is still right near its bottom. Not only hasn't SVIX bounced yet, but with the broader market already up considerably, any market pullback could send the VIX upward again, thus further sinking SVIX. Anyway, not sure what the advantage is for using SVIX, instead of SPY or SSO (?)



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[ombowstring]

GM, Ford and Stellantis face extra $5,000 cost for each car made in America, thanks to Trump’s tariff on parts

Ya gotta wonder why this is the policy of the Trump administration

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-ford-and-stellantis-face-extra-5-000-cost-for-each-car-made-in-america-thanks-to-trumps-tariff-on-parts-69582ffb?mod=home_lead

[gfp927z]

>>> Apple, Nvidia Score Relief From US Tariffs With Exemptions


Bloomberg

by Debby Wu, Josh Wingrove and Shawn Donnan

April 12, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html


(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers including Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. even if it proves a temporary one.

The exclusions, published late Friday by US Customs and Border Protection, narrow the scope of the levies by excluding the products from Trump’s 125% China tariff and his baseline 10% global tariff on nearly all other countries.

The exclusions apply to smartphones, laptop computers, hard drives and computer processors and memory chips as well as flat-screen displays. Those popular consumer electronics items generally aren’t made in the US.

The pause will be welcome news to consumers, some of whom rushed to buy new iPhones and other devices amid fears that the tariffs would send prices soaring. It’s also a big win for major technology companies that have presented massive US spending pledges for Trump in recent months. Trump’s tariffs upended global markets, triggered a selloff in stocks and ignited a rapidly escalating trade war with China.

The move is the first significant softening of any kind in Trump’s conflict with China. It was backdated to April 5.

The exemptions cover almost $390 billion in US imports based on official US 2024 trade statistics, including more than $101 billion from China, according to data compiled by Gerard DiPippo, associate director of the Rand China Research Center.

The biggest category related to China is smartphones. The US imported smartphones valued at more than $41 billion from China in 2024, or about 9% of total imports from China. Also covered are computers and similar devices, of which the US imported more than $36 billion in 2024.

Altogether the exemptions cover consumer electronics and semiconductors that accounted for about 22% of US imports from China in 2024, DiPippo said.

“This is a large hole in the US tariff wall that will spare key firms like Apple and consumers of laptops and phones from sticker shock,” he said. “But many other consumer, intermediate, and capital goods from China still face prohibitively high US tariffs. This exemption only covers one segment of the US economy.”

The White House also released a corresponding memo indicating that the exemptions also extend to changes in small-parcel shipping duties. Trump had moved to end the so-called “de minimis” exemption, beginning with China, that generally means parcels worth $800 or below don’t face duties.

“President Trump has made it clear America cannot rely on China to manufacturing critical technologies such as semiconductors, chips, smartphones, and laptops,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “That’s why the president has secured trillions of dollars in US investments from the largest tech companies in the world.” She said those companies are “hustling to onshore” their manufacturing to the US.

The tariff reprieve may prove fleeting. The exclusions stem from the initial order, which prevented extra tariffs on certain sectors from stacking cumulatively on top of the country-wide rates. The exclusion is a sign that the products may soon be subject to a different tariff, albeit almost surely a lower one for China.

The products that won’t be subject to Trump’s new tariffs include machines used to make semiconductors. That would be important for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which has announced a major new investment in the US, as well as other chipmakers.

“All products that are properly classified in these listed provisions will be excluded from the reciprocal tariffs,” the notice said.

The move appeared to exclude the products from the 10% global baseline tariff on other countries, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s home of South Korea.

The tariff reprieve does not extend to a separate Trump levy on China — a 20% duty applied to pressure Beijing to crack down on fentanyl, including the shipment of precursor materials. Other previously existing levies, including those that predate Trump’s current term, also appear unaffected.

“The US tech industry has a loud voice and despite initial strong pushback against exemptions within the White House the reality of the situation was finally recognized in the Beltway,” Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a research note on Saturday. “There is still clear uncertainty and volatility ahead with these China negotiations.”

The original list of tariff exemptions included some semiconductor products — including central processing units konwn as CPUs. But those measures did not carve out tech products crucial to AI development including graphics processing units, or GPUs, and the servers that they power. Servers powered by AI chips from companies such as Nvidia and their critical components are primarily manufactured and assembled in Taiwan and Mexico.

Friday’s announcement would cover both Taiwanese and Mexican production, in a significant reprieve for companies seeking to build AI infrastructure in the US.

Semiconductor Equipment Exemptions

Also crucial are new exemptions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, made by companies such as ASML Holding NV in the Netherlands and Tokyo Electron Ltd. in Japan. Those tools are essential for building chip factories, and comprise the lion’s share of the multi-billion dollar price tag for such plants. Companies including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel Corp. are building new US facilities with support from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.

Trump’s initial “reciprocal” tariff announcement included exemptions for semiconductors and other sectors, to which Trump has regularly pledged to apply a specific tariff. He hasn’t yet done so but the latest exclusions are related to that exemption.

The move excludes most of Apple’s core products from the escalating tariffs on China, including iPhones, iPads and Apple watches. Apple shares have slid since Trump announced the tariffs.

Discussions gained additional urgency in recent days after Trump increased the tariffs on China, putting companies like Apple in a more difficult position than competitors like Samsung, who are less reliant on China. Companies and tech industry lobbyists have also argued that reshoring the final assembly of smartphones and other products is impossible, one person familiar with the discussions said.

But the move also is aimed at laying the groundwork for new targeted sectoral tariffs that are likely to hit the industry.

The administration is expected to soon launch a new investigation into imports of semiconductors. That would eventually lead to the imposition of tariffs on chips within weeks or months. Those duties, like ones imposed recently on steel and aluminum, are likely to impose duties on products that include semiconductors as well as the chips themselves.

Trump’s sectoral tariffs have so far been set at 25%, though it’s not clear what his rate on semiconductors and related products would be. It’s also not clear how widely he would apply that tariff.

Representatives from Nvidia and ASML declined comment. Spokesmen for Tokyo Electron didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The US International Trade Commission, the US Trade Representative and the Department of Commerce didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

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[ombowstring]

Every summer thousands of young people come to Cape Cod to work from many countries across the world - Brazil, Jamaica, Ireland, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, etc., - after having obtained H-2B visas allowing them to do so. Now I hear that many Brazilians aren't coming this year. They probably fear that ICE will grab them off the street and deport them. The anti-immigrant fervor in the Trump administration is well-known. The same thing happened during the COVID years - the young people didn't come here to work. As a result, restaurants, hotels, retail stores didn't have the help they needed and were forced to curtail their hours of operation or not open at all.

The general population is already cutting back on spending and, even though, it's early, I can see that already we don't have the usual numbers of tourists here, and I think this situation is likely to continue. Farmers are vociferously complaining that their businesses will` be devastated if the tariffs continue. The prices of clothing, toys, electronics, etc., will skyrocket. The countries of the Far East offer cheap labor. The United states offers the world its intellectual capabilities and technological achievements. People around here don't want the minimum wage-paying (or just above that) chambermaid jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs - these jobs are happily filled by people from lower income countries - these are opportunities that don't exist in their home countries.

Now Trump is saying that there will be carve-outs for electronics, smartphones, laptops, etc. This schizophrenic approach to tariff policy bodes ill for the outcome of this travesty foisted on the American economy. Trump is not an exceptionally bright guy. Xi Jinping and the Chinese bureaucracy will outsmart him. The Europeans will outsmart him. I see the rise of Europe and China on the world stage and the diminishment of the United States as a superpower.

Related articles -

https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/04/11/cape-cod-tourism-visas-foreign-massachusetts-immigrants

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

[bigworld]

gfp: Here is what Rinear posted yesterday at 2 PM:

Insiders Club Update
************************************************************************************************************
2:00
So, it looks like they want to finally put in a green day that makes it to close. Imagine that.

IF and that's a big if, if nothing goofy happens over the weekend, I suspect we might make some gains next week. The PPI was very tame, giving the feds some leeway to sound more dovish, and the bank earnings were better than feared.

I'm pretty happy with KGC, so far so good.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
It's Saturday at @ noon. An announcement came out today that they are relaxing the tariffs on smart phones, computer chips, laptops and related components. That should have us open Monday morning quite green. I started scaling back into SVIX on Friday. I bought 4,000 in the low $10's. I missed the dip under $10 on Thursday. It's riskier than it was previously because the market will continue to be skittish, driven on news and not fundamentals. And the quick rise in Treasury yields from just under 4% on the 10 Year to almost 4.5% in the space of a week is troublesome. And that wasn't caused by the tariff situation. It was the details of our profligate Congress basically kicking spending cuts down the road yet again. Promising $1.5 Trillion of cuts in the future, which everyone and their pets knows ain't never gonna happen. So we'll be at $50 Trillion in debt at some point. The debt is already unsupportable. I don't understand the short term thinking in Washington. We have a spending crisis. Any reputable business man could reduce the size and scope of the Federal government by at least 1/3 without compromising a single important function the Federal government is responsible for by the Constitution. That is, if they had a free reign to do so, which the judges and Congress would never sanction. I guess we will have to default on our bonds before Congress realizes we have a spending problem.

McAlvany is telling clients that gold and silver may have gotten in over their skis after this past week. Long term prognosis is good. In the short term perhaps some backfilling might occur. Which would be healthy. I'll sit tight with my metal miners. I'm much more of a risk taker with the trading portion of my portfolio because my core holdings in miners are so well positioned going forward. So I will continue to add some SVIX. The amount will depend on circumstances. The VIX spiked over 50 for a short while last week. It's at 37.56 as of Friday. It usually hovers in the 15-18 range, and will occasionally drop to a 10 handle after prolonged gradual rallies in the S&P. I think SVIX can get back to the low 20s if we can go a few weeks without another round of major selling. It's was in the mid $10 range at the close on Friday, I think the close was $10.63. I'll be watching the bond market closely.

[silver_bars]

Trump stock market memes ...

[gfp927z]

Another great one from 'back in the day' -

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[gfp927z]

Om, Here's CCR on the Ed Sullivan show

I remember seeing this back then on TV. These guys are smokin -

<<<

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, the metals continue to zoom, especially gold. Years ago I started off with a 10% allocation, which is what Jim Rickards recommends, and it's grown into a 24% allocation, yikes. I thought about buying the recent dip, using the GLD and SLV, but figured the allocation is already big enough. The miners are starting to catch fire also.

Btw, any current strategies with the overall market, Vix, etc? We have a 90 day reprieve on the reciprocal tariffs, which 'should' be enough time to get most of that resolved. The China situation will continue, but some kind of resolution seems inevitable since 125% will crush both countries. The inflation numbers this week showed cooling, so that's one less near term concern. The next GDP figure isn't until the 30th.

Fwiw, I upped the stock allocation again, to 14%, so will try to go with that for now. It includes a sizeable 'Flex' portion, so will take profits as they build up. The S+P 500 looks poised for a move up to 5500, which was the previous support area that broke down last week. Getting much beyond that in the near term may not be easy though. I'll probably take profits at 5500 and then wait for the subsequent pullback / consolidation. But just a guess, and will have to play it by ear. Nice to finally see some decent profits this year on the stock side.



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[bigworld]

gfp: I'm loving it. Gold is almost at the level that McAlvany predicted for year end. Flight to quality. I think the metals have a strong tailwind. The Congressional budget talks are just another smoke and mirrors deficit reduction non event. Speaker Johnson swears they promise to cut $1.5 Trillion over the next 10 years (while we continue to borrow $1 Trillion more every 100 days). There is only so much Trump can do constitutionally. If Congress spends the money it's next to impossible to claw it back. So it's clear that even a Republican congress has absolutely no spine for actually reducing spending. Ever. That just means more spending, more borrowing and more money printing. Gold and silver related investments are the best bet going forward. Why to you think I've been massively overweighted in the metals and miners? The mental midgets in Congress basically guarantee continued flight to the safety of precious metals.

[bigworld]

gfp: Since that sell off in the metals last week they have been on a tear. The miners too. Happy to see it!

[gfp927z]

Ombow, Allocation-wise, I figure investors need to have at least something in stocks, and 6% is a very low level, even for a nervous nellie like me. The recent market crash has produced some relative bargains, so I figure it's time to get the stock allocation up to a reasonable level. I managed to dodge the crash, so now it's time to pick up some of the bargains. I figure 15-20% might be a good conservative level to shoot for. Currently only 6%.

It's looking like the non-China tariff issues should get resolved during this 3 month 'pause' period. With China, it's not going to end up being 125% at the end of the process. They're playing hardball right now, but eventually a deal will be reached since 125% will crush both countries. Trump has already shown his negotiating method -- ie scare the hell out of everyone and then back off. So probably a repeat of that with China.



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[ombowstring]

I think you're wrong. I think stocks have a lot further down to go. There could be an epic crash. There are many reasons I think so, too many to go into. 145% tariffs on China? Does Trump think the Chinese are going to back down? This kind of turmoil that Trump is fostering will lead to big trouble. Businesses will go under. More people will be laid off. Prices will skyrocket. What if China tries to take over Taiwan? Taiwan Semiconductor is key to the global cyber Industry. I don't know how you've reached your conclusions, but I see A Bad Moon On The Rise.

Creedence Clearwater Revival - Bad Moon Rising (Official Lyric Video)

DANCEWORKOUT | Fit with Shuffling | For Beginner and Intermediate #shuffling #dance #danceworkout
Bad moon on the rise 🌑 #shorts #dance #winter #snow

[gfp927z]

Om, I'm figuring the bottom is in for now (4800-4900 for the S+P 500), but how fast the recovery proceeds is the question. The big crash created some LT buy / hold opportunities in individual stocks, so I grabbed a bunch of those to hold. Meanwhile the S+P 500 has some tradable swings, but risky. I figure the near / mid term bias 'should' be recovery mode, and provide a tailwind. I had a nice trade using the S+P 500 (SPY, IVV) today, and grabbed the profits fast, and then market went the other way. Last year was much easier / more predictable. This is more like the roulette table, lol.

Fwiw, I figure once things settle down some the S+P 500 should recover to test 5500, which is where it broke key support last week. It might take a while to get back above that though (?) I'm just picking up a few nickels / dimes. Last year was much easier - just buy the dip, and if it fell more then buy more, and then just wait for the inevitable recovery. The Fed was in loosening mode, and with the election coming everyone wanted to maintain a buoyant market. Much harder this year.



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[ombowstring]

It looks like there's a lot of buying and shorting going on intraday all day long by day traders completely ignoring fundamentals. I'm staying away from this action. Overall, it looks like a bear market bounce with the trend being downward.

[gfp927z]

Om, Yes, that did seem like a short squeeze yesterday. The shorts got caught with their pants down :o)

Fwiw, I'm figuring on trading the rebound using the S+P 500 (via SPY, VOO, IVV), while holding the Core individual stocks longer term. Last year trading the S+P 500 via 'buy the dip / sell the rally' worked well, though this year looks a lot trickier (no 'Fed put' or 'election put'). With lots of relative bargains out there from the crash, a chance to also get some LT buy / hold positions. Sounds like a plan anyway..



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