Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Those bearish factors are valid, but many are mid-longer term problems that won't necessarily tank the markets in the near term. Using leveraged VIX plays, you need the market to tank within a few weeks or maybe a month. If it goes much beyond that the contango / erosion becomes a serious problem.

In addition to the constant erosion, the other problem is that these bearish vehicles are betting against a historically rising index (S+P 500, broader market), and doing it with leverage. So a lot is stacked against this approach.

An alternate way to trade is to just go with the longer term trend (up) with a long vehicle (SPY). Bail when it gets overbought (RSI 70), and buy back when it becomes oversold (RSI 30). In a long term uptrend this could be adjusted to buying when the RSI is in the 30-50 range, and doing it in tranches, and also using some other chart signals. This isn't very exciting, but has worked well over time.



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, and even if Acurx was sitiing on $100 mil in cash, you don't speculate with company money. The company is running on fumes, with a measly 5.8 mil (end of Sept), and is counting on the ATM to stay afloat until some type of partnership deal happens. I can't imagine what Luci was thinking. He has a finance backround, but this makes zero sense.




---

[bigworld]

gfp: Well the investment world sure didn't like the announcement. The stock is back down to $1.38. First stupid move he's made. Putting $1 Million into gold would have made more sense. I would keep those funds in money market funds or short term Treasuries to get the 4% yield while keeping the funds liquid.

[bigworld]

gfp: There has been an uptick in volatility. Biden's puppet masters are trying their best to get WW3 started. Russia sent an ICBM warning shot at Ukraine to demonstrate its capabilities. We're in a recession if you don't count the 2 Trillion $$ in deficit spending. Insider selling is among the highest levels ever seen. Valuations remain far too high. You have to play the odds. The odds that we have a market breakdown are relatively high as compared to the possibility that the market just continues to climb unabated. I have a $20 cutoff to the downside which limits my losses. The potential upside is a 3 X bagger or more, which I would then follow-up by selling UVXY and buying SVIX for the return trip on the VIX. I'm keeping my eyes on this trade. At worse I exit with a small loss as compared to a potential gain of 3 or 4 X. I like those odds. It's no guarantee but when the odds are in your favor you place a stronger bet.

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> Acurx <<

Yes, an amazingly stupid move by Luci. At the end of Q-3 they only had 5.8 mil in cash, and he wants to put 1 mil of it into Bitcoin ?? Makes zero sense. If Luci wants to speculate on Bitcoin, let him do it with his own personal funds.



>>> Acurx Board of Directors Approves Bitcoin as Treasury Reserve Asset


PR Newswire

November 20, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/acurx-board-directors-approves-bitcoin-120100338.html


STATEN ISLAND, N.Y., Nov. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACXP) ("we" or "Acurx" or the "Company"), a late-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a new class of antibiotics for difficult-to-treat bacterial infections, announced today that the Company's Board of Directors approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin to hold as a treasury reserve asset.

"As demand for Bitcoin grows, and so does its acceptance as a major and primary asset class, we believe that Bitcoin will serve as a strong treasury reserve asset for cash not needed over the next 12 to 18 months" said David P. Luci, President & CEO of Acurx. "With the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the growing support from government agencies and institutional investors, it is a great addition to our treasury strategy. Its limited supply and inflation-resistant characteristics provide a functional store of value. This new treasury strategy is a finance strategy and has no impact on our overarching drug development plans."

About Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Acurx Pharmaceuticals is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a new class of small molecule antibiotics for difficult-to-treat bacterial infections. The Company's approach is to develop antibiotic candidates with a Gram-positive selective spectrum (GPSS®) that blocks the active site of the Gram+ specific bacterial enzyme DNA polymerase IIIC (pol IIIC), inhibiting DNA replication and leading to Gram-positive bacterial cell death. Its R&D pipeline includes antibiotic product candidates that target Gram-positive bacteria, including Clostridioides difficile, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin resistant Enterococcus (VRE) and drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (DRSP).

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> portfolio insurance <<

Using VIX as a hedge could make sense if you had an existing long position in the S+P 500 / broader market. But you mainly have mining and energy stocks, which are themselves meant to be 'hedges', so the VIX play is essentially trying to hedge other hedges (?), so not a logical strategy. Face it, what you are attempting is not a hedge (ie something to hedge another position), but is akin to a naked short, except using VIX rather than a short vehicle like SH, SDS, SPXS. So it's a pure speculation / gambling.

If it was possible to trade the VIX index itself (it isn't), that would be a great strategy, since it has a fairly stable and predictable 'bottom' that it returns to after each spike. You could just buy it and wait for the inevitable spike. But unfortunately the only VIX vehicles available are UVXY, VIXY, etc, which all have the big erosion / contango problem. These have a continually falling 'bottom', so you can't own them for very long.

Looking at the chart, in the past few months the relatively stable bottom for UVXY was an anomaly likely due to temporary factors like pre-election PPT, but now the steady erosion can resume as before. Anyway, I would steer clear of these VIX plays, especially if you may need to hold for months before a decent pop in the VIX occurs. If the spike doesn't happen soon, the erosion will produce an ever growing loss.





---

[bigworld]

ACXP drops 15% today after the announcement that the company authorized holding corporate capital in Bitcoin. Dumb ass move. Hold the fund in money market accounts. Bitcoin is at an all time high.

[bigworld]

gfp: You keep missing the point. UVXY is in place in case of a severe drop in equities as portfolio insurance. If the market stays up and UVXY drops below $20 I'll sell and take the small loss. But the potential upside with a market this overvalued is a smart move in my opinion. I wouldn't be doing this if the market were not so incredibly overvalued. I think were are ripe for at least some volatility, which should keep UVXY in a trading range where I will continue to hold it until it has a break out due to a market event. In fact the way it's been trading I may decide to buy more. Like October of 1929 this market is a ticking time bomb, If you remove the $2 Trillion a year the current regime has been deficit spending in this economy and we would have been in recession for the past 2 years. We aren't producing the current GDP that gets reported. We are stealing current spending from the poor children Borrowed money spent by our corrupt government should not even count toward GDP. We are in a recession and have been for quite some time. Reality will eventually bite us in the ass.

[bigworld]

GFP: We don't have the money to work on our own Infrastructure let alone subsidize the 3rd world. We need to do a Manhattan Project level program to build dozens of nuclear generating facilities in the next 10-20 years.

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Well, I raised the current stock allocation to 14% today, up from 12%. There's a decent chance the S+P 500 will drop to test the 50 MA, so will keep the last 6% available if that happens. Fwiw, I decided to lower the max allowable in stocks to 20%, down from 25%. No sense losing sleep over this stuff, but still good to have at least something in stocks, so a max of 20% seems like a reasonable number.

Btw, Here's the latest on Trump's cabinet appointments, etc. Sounds like a promising team, and a lot of work ahead. If Gaetz doesn't make it, then there's Todd Blanche -


>>> Trump taps Linda McMahon for education secretary: Here's who else he's picked for his incoming administration


MSN

by Dylan Stableford

11-20-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-taps-linda-mcmahon-for-education-secretary-here-s-who-else-he-s-picked-for-his-incoming-administration/ar-AA1ur819?ocid=TobArticle


It’s been a little more than two weeks since the 2024 election, and the administration of President-elect Donald Trump is taking shape. Trump has already named more than a dozen people who will play key roles, including former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (education secretary), TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) and billionaire megadonor Howard Lutnick (commerce secretary). Other picks for his Cabinet and West Wing are said to be imminent.

Here is what Trump’s incoming administration looks like so far:

Secretary of education

Responsibilities: The secretary is responsible for the overall direction, supervision and coordination of the U.S. Department of Education.

Trump’s pick: Linda McMahon

McMahon, the former chief executive of the WWE, served as administrator of the Small Business Administration in the first Trump administration. She briefly served on the Connecticut state Board of Education.

Trump has said he wants to eliminate federal oversight of education.

“We will send Education BACK TO THE STATES, and Linda will spearhead that effort,” Trump said in a statement announcing her nomination.

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) administrator

Responsibilities: The administrator leads a federal agency "dedicated to advancing health equity, expanding coverage, and improving health outcomes,” according to its website. This position requires Senate approval.

Trump’s pick: Dr. Mehmet Oz

Oz, a television personality who was a frequent guest on Oprah Winfrey’s show before hosting his own, lost in Pennsylvania’s 2022 U.S. Senate race to John Fetterman — despite being endorsed by Trump.

In a statement, Trump said Oz would work closely with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., his health secretary nominee, to “to take on the illness industrial complex, and all the horrible chronic diseases left in its wake.”

"I have known Dr. Oz for many years," Trump added, "and I am confident he will fight to ensure everyone in America receives the best possible Healthcare, so our Country can be Great and Healthy Again!”

Secretary of commerce

Responsibilities: The commerce secretary oversees a broad array of federal trade policies, and is responsible for helping carry out the president's economic agenda with a focus on job creation and growth. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Howard Lutnick

Lutnick, a billionaire megadonor to Trump’s campaign and the co-chair of Trump’s transition team, is the chairman and longtime chief executive of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald. The company’s World Trade Center offices were destroyed during the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which killed 658 of Lutnick’s employees, including his 36-year-old brother.

Secretary of transportation

Responsibilities: The secretary of transportation oversees all aviation, automotive, rail and transit policies in the United States. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Sean Duffy

Duffy, a former reality television star on MTV’s “Real World: Boston” turned Wisconsin congressman, is a host on the Fox Business channel. He is Trump’s second cabinet pick to come from Fox following Pete Hegseth, a Fox & Friends co-host and the president-elect’s pick for defense secretary.

In a statement, Trump said Duffy “will prioritize Excellence, Competence, Competitiveness and Beauty when rebuilding America's highways, tunnels, bridges and airports" and “greatly elevate the Travel Experience for all Americans.”

FCC commissioner

Responsibilities: The Federal Communications Commission chairman is tasked with regulating broadcasting, telecommunications and broadband in the United States.

Trump's pick: Brendan Carr

Carr is a longtime member of the commission who was previously nominated by Trump and President Biden to the panel. Carr wrote a section devoted to the FCC for Project 2025, the controversial 922-page document crafted by the Heritage Foundation as a blueprint for the next Republican administration that would radically reshape how the American government works. During the campaign, Trump distanced himself from the project.

“Commissioner Carr is a warrior for Free Speech, and has fought against the regulatory Lawfare that has stifled Americans’ Freedoms, and held back our Economy,” Trump said in a statement. “He will end the regulatory onslaught that has been crippling America’s Job Creators and Innovators, and ensure that the FCC delivers for rural America.”

Secretary of energy

Responsibilities: The secretary of energy oversees all energy supply and production — including oil and gas — in the United States. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Chris Wright

Wright, chief executive and chairman of oil and natural gas services company Liberty Energy, is a champion of fracking and a noted climate change skeptic. Wright will also serve on Trump’s newly created National Energy Council.

"As Secretary of Energy, Chris will be a key leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new 'Golden Age of American Prosperity and Global Peace,'" Trump said in a statement.

Secretary of state

Responsibilities: The secretary of state is the nation’s top diplomat who serves the interests of the United States and U.S. citizens around the world. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Sen. Marco Rubio

Rubio — a former Trump critic who was once dubbed “Little Marco” when he ran against Trump for the 2016 GOP nomination — has become a fierce defender of the president-elect. And the longtime Florida senator was on the shortlist of candidates to serve as Trump’s 2024 running mate.

Director of national intelligence

Responsibilities: The director of national intelligence (or DNI) traditionally serves as the head of the U.S. intelligence community and acts as the principal advisor to the president, National Security Council and the Homeland Security Council. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard

Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman and 2020 presidential candidate who served Iraq and Kuwait as a member of the Army National Guard, became a Trump supporter after leaving the Democratic party for the GOP.

“As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties - She is now a proud Republican!” Trump said in a statement. “I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength. Tulsi will make us all proud!”

Attorney general

Responsibilities: The attorney generalI is the nation's chief law enforcement officer, guiding the Department of Justice and all of its agencies (including the FBI) in enforcing federal laws and advising the president on legal matters related to them. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Rep. Matt Gaetz

The far-right Florida congressman has for years been one of Trump’s most vocal defenders on Capitol Hill, and one of the leaders of the so-called MAGA-movement. Gaetz has been sharply critical of the Justice Department itself, and has even floated the idea of abolishing the FBI.

In a post on Truth Social announcing the pick, Trump said that Gaetz “has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice.”

Gaetz, who resigned from Congress after the announcement, had been the subject of a three-year investigation by the House Ethic Committee into allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. The panel was set to meet last week to decide whether to release its findings, but Gaetz’s abrupt departure from the House ended the probe. Gaetz was also the subject of a Justice Department probe into allegations that he had sex with a 17-year-old girl and broke sex-trafficking laws. He denied any wrongdoing, and it concluded last year without charges.

Deputy attorney general

Responsibilities: The deputy attorney general serves as the no. 2 official at the Justice Department and is responsible for supervising its day-to-day operations. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Todd Blanche

Blanche, a former supervising federal prosecutor in Manhattan, served as Trump's defense attorney in three of his four criminal cases, including his hush money trial in Manhattan. Trump was convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in that case. But sentencing was postponed following Trump's election victory, and the other three cases have been put on indefinite hold.

“Todd is an excellent attorney who will be a crucial leader in the Justice Department, fixing what has been a broken System of Justice for far too long,” Trump said in a statement announcing his appointment.

Secretary of the interior

Responsibilities: The interior secretary is a steward for the nation's lands, including national parks and wildlife refuges, overseeing the development of conventional and renewable energy on roughly 500 million acres of federal land and more than a billion more offshore. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum

Burgum was on the shortlist of names Trump considered for running mate before he selected JD Vance after the North Dakota governor dropped his own longshot bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Burgum has close ties to the oil industry and has advocated against President Biden's climate policies and for drilling on public lands.

Health and Human Services secretary

Responsibilities: The HHS secretary takes action to prepare for public health emergencies such as the coronavirus pandemic and is tasked with responding to them. The secretary also monitors the Food and Drug Administration, manages policies for Medicaid and Medicare, oversees the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and oversees the Indian Health Service. This is a Cabinet-level position that requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Robert Kennedy, Jr.

A noted vaccine skeptic who has promoted misinformation about ingredients in vaccines and the risks they pose to human health, Kennedy is a former environmental lawyer who has vowed to "Make America Healthy Again" by removing fluoride from drinking water and by doing away with processed foods in school lunches.

White House chief of staff

Responsibilities: Often considered the president’s gatekeeper, the chief of staff is traditionally the president’s closest adviser in the White House, overseeing such things as his daily schedule and access to the Oval Office. This Cabinet-level position does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Susie Wiles

Wiles, who served as the de facto manager of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, was credited with guiding his successful bid. (In his election night speech, Trump referred to Wiles as “the ice maiden.”) Trump went through a record four chiefs of staff during his first administration. Wiles will be the first woman ever to serve in the position.

Read more about her via Reuters here: In Susie Wiles, Trump picks quiet competence for chief of staff

Deputy chief of staff

Responsibilities: The deputy chief of staff usually assists the president and chief of staff on staffing as well as implementing key policies. This position also does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Dan Scavino

Once Trump's golf caddy, Scavino is a long-time ally to the president-elect and served as a communications adviser during Trump's first term. The House voted to hold Scavino in contempt of Congress after refusing to cooperate with a probe following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, but the Justice Department declined to indict him.

Deputy chief of staff for policy

Responsibilities: The deputy chief of staff for policy is one of multiple deputy roles, and assists the president and chief of staff on staffing as well as implementing key policies. This position also does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Stephen Miller

An immigration hardliner who served as a senior adviser during the first Trump administration, Miller was a central figure in crafting some of its controversial immigration policies, including a travel ban targeting people from majority-Muslim countries and the separation of migrant children from their parents at the southern border. Trump has yet to formally announce Miller for the position, which does not require Senate confirmation, but Vice President-elect JD Vance appeared to confirm his selection in a post on X.

Miller, who was among Trump’s most visible surrogates during the 2024 campaign, is also the lead architect of Trump’s plan for mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. In an interview with Fox News, Miller said that the deportations would “begin on Inauguration Day, as soon as he takes the oath of office.”

Press secretary

Responsibilities: The White House press secretary is the public face of the West Wing, providing daily briefings for the media on the president's activities and agenda. This position does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Karoline Leavitt

At 27, Leavitt, who served as press secretary for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, will be the youngest White House press secretary in history.

“Karoline Leavitt did a phenomenal job as the National Press Secretary on my Historic Campaign,” Trump said in a statement. “Karoline is smart, tough, and has proven to be a highly effective communicator. I have the utmost confidence she will excel at the podium, and help deliver our message to the American People as we Make America Great Again.”

‘Border czar’

Responsibilities: In a Truth Social post, Trump said the “border czar” will be in charge of “policing and controlling” the nation’s borders as well as the “Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.” This role does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Tom Homan

Homan, who served as director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the first Trump administration, has long been a vocal supporter of its immigration policies — including the controversial "zero tolerance" program that separated parents from their children at the border.

In July, Homan said he was willing to help run the “biggest deportation operation this country’s ever seen.”

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

Responsibilities: The ambassador serves as the senior U.S. diplomat at the United Nations and is in charge of advancing U.S. interests on the world stage. This Cabinet-level position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Rep. Elise Stefanik

Stefanik, a congresswoman from New York, serves as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference and is one of Trump's fiercest supporters on Capitol Hill. But Stefanik has relatively little foreign policy experience.

She has also been sharply critical of the United Nations itself, calling it a "cesspool of antisemitism" for passing a resolution demanding that Israel ends its war in Gaza. Stefanik even proposed that the United States withdraw its membership from the United Nations if it does not enact unspecified reforms sought by Trump.

Read more about Stefanik via NBC News here: Trump chooses Rep. Elise Stefanik to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

U.S. ambassador to Israel

Responsibilities: The job of the ambassador to advance the interests of the United States and to serve and protect U.S. citizens in Israel.

Trump's pick: Mike Huckabee

Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and two-time Republican presidential candidate, has been a staunch defender of Israel amid its ongoing war in Gaza.

“Mike has been a great public servant, Governor, and Leader in Faith for many years,” Trump said in a statement. “He loves Israel, and the people of Israel, and likewise, the people of Israel love him. Mike will work tirelessly to bring about Peace in the Middle East!”

Environmental Protection Agency administrator

Responsibilities: The administrator oversees all environmental regulations, including those protecting clean air and water. Trump has said his administration will focus on deregulation, including plans for the U.S. to withdraw, once again, from the Paris climate accord. The Cabinet-level post requires Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Former Rep. Lee Zeldin

Zeldin, a former New York congressman, is a longtime Trump backer with little experience in environmental policy.

"We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI," Zeldin said in a post on X after Trump announced his appointment overseeing the EPA. "We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water."

Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Responsibilities: "The Secretary of Veteran Affairs oversees the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs in its mission to provide health, education, disability, funerary, and financial benefits earned by Veterans of the United States Armed Forces," the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs states on its website. This Cabinet position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Doug Collins

A former member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Georgia, Collins was one of Trump's staunchest defenders in Congress during Trump's first term. Collins unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in Georgia in 2020, and has served as legal counsel to Trump ever since.

National security adviser

Responsibilities: The national security adviser is a senior aide who typically serves as the principal adviser to the president on all issues related to national security, often coordinating with the secretaries of state and defense on strategies that are then presented to the president. This position does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump’s pick: Rep. Mike Waltz

Waltz is a three-term Florida Republican congressman and Trump loyalist who served as a Green Beret in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa. Waltz previously worked in the Pentagon as a policy adviser during the George W. Bush administration. Like many congressional Republicans, Waltz has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia. He was also among the Trump supporters who publicly defended the president-elect outside his criminal hush money trial in New York earlier this year.

CIA director

Responsibilities: "The role of the Director of the CIA (D/CIA) is to manage the Agency's intelligence collection, analysis, covert action, counterintelligence, and liaison relationships with foreign services," the U.S. spy agency says on its website. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: John Ratcliffe

Ratcliffe, a former House member from Texas, served in the Trump administration as director of national intelligence. During his tenure, he was criticized for ignoring assessments generated by his own agency in favor of promoting positions favored by the president.

Special envoy to the Middle East

Responsibilities: Typically, the duties of the special envoy to the Middle East focus on helping to normalize relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, as well as to promote a peace agreement between the Israeli government and Palestinian leadership

Trump's pick: Steven Witkoff

Witkoff is a Trump donor and a real estate investor with "no known expertise in diplomacy or the Middle East," the Times of Israel reported. In a statement posted to X, Trump called Witkoff "a Highly Respected Leader in Business and Philanthropy," and said he would be "an unrelenting Voice for PEACE."

Secretary of defense

Responsibilities: "The secretary of defense oversees the Defense Department and acts as the principal defense policymaker and adviser," according to the U.S. Department of Defense website. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Pete Hegseth

For the past 10 years, Hegseth has worked as a host and commentator on Fox News, often espousing his support for Trump's policy stances. A staunch conservative and the author of four books, Hesgeth was also a reserve officer in the U.S. National Guard, serving a tour at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, in Iraq and Afghanistan, the latter two deployments for which he was twice awarded the Bronze Star.

Homeland security secretary

Responsibilities: The homeland security secretary oversees that department's "efforts to counter terrorism and enhance security, secure and manage our borders while facilitating trade and travel, enforce and administer our immigration laws, safeguard and secure cyberspace, build resilience to disasters, and provide essential support for national and economic security — in coordination with federal, state, local, international and private sector partners," according to the DHS website. This position requires Senate confirmation.

Trump's pick: Kristi Noem

The governor of South Dakota since 2019, Noem previously served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2019 and as a state representative in her home state from 2007 to 2011. She will be tasked with overseeing an enormous agency that includes U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Secret Service.

White House counsel

Responsibilities: The White House counsel advises the president on legal aspects of foreign policy, signing or vetoing legislation, financial disclosures and potential conflicts of interest, among other duties.

Trump's pick: William McGinley

A lawyer who worked in the first Trump administration, serving as White House Cabinet secretary, McGinley also served as general counsel for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. In a statement posted to social media, Trump called McGinley "a smart and tenacious lawyer who will help me advance our America First agenda while fighting for election integrity and against the weaponization of law enforcement."

Co-leaders of the Department of Government Efficiency

Responsibilities: Because this is a newly formed agency, it remains to be seen what the responsibilities will entail. But in a statement posted to social media, Trump said the role "will provide advice and guidance from outside the Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before." The position does not currently require Senate approval and it is unclear whether it will draw a government salary.

Trump's picks: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy

The co-founder and CEO of Tesla Motors and Space X, and the owner of the social media platform X, Musk threw his support behind Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign. His business ties with China could complicate an official government role. Ramaswamy founded the pharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences and ran for president in 2024 before endorsing Trump.

Other Cabinet positions

Trump has reportedly made picks for at least one other prominent post, choosing Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida for secretary of state. His selections are expected to be formally announced in the coming days.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, UVXY is up, so this is a chance to grab the profit and get out in the green. It looks like angst over the coming NVDA earnings is weighing on the stock market. NVDA reports after the close today, and if their numbers are favorable the stock market could have a strong move tomorrow, with UVXY going back into the red. Of course the opposite could happen, but in the near term a bet on VIX is essentially a bet against NVDA.

Fwiw, I would seriously reconsider the broader UVXY strategy. Over time the erosion / contango aspect will be reasserting itself, so this is a short term trading vehicle. VIX will inevitably spike again, but how much downward erosion will occur while waiting? A lot safer to just sit in cash / T-Bills if you are bearish, as Buffett is doing. Just my 2 cents :o)



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looks like the market is showing resiliency. Fwiw, I upped the stock allocation to 12% from 10%, so will go with that for now. I'm leery, but figure this is the only way to become acclimated to riding through the inevitable volatility of stocks. But once profits start to build up, I'll probably forget about the 'long term' and just grab the profits as usual, lol. I guess whatever works.

It's good to see the metals rebounding after that painful drop. It seems with the metals there is always a zig to following every zag, so just have to get used to it. With the miners, even Newmont has had a bounce, so hopefully that continues. The dollar has pulled back, but we'll see if it resumes the upward trajectory in 2025 (?) There is uncertainty over Fed policy, but it now sounds like 1/4 point in Dec, and 1/4 point in each quarter of 2025, or at least that's the goal.

Like Buffet, I have just over 50% of the portfolio in Treasuries, though he has T-Bills, and mine are in a 3 year ladder. But it's good to be on roughly the same page with the Oracle. Fwiw, I'm figuring on being mostly out of bonds by 2029, since the debt bomb will be approaching 50 trillion, yikes. Where to put it then? Hard asset areas would seem logical.



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, some heads should roll, but the Swamp encompasses both political Parties, as does 'the blob', so there is plenty of slime to go around. A permanent tit for tat between the Dems and Reps is encouraged by the blob, since it keeps the country perpetually divided. What the blob fears most is a unified country, where the public could conceivably unite against their common enemy, the blob (finance oligarchy).

But while the blobsters want continual divisions, they don't want a full civil war in the US. The US/Western blob is challenged by a mega rival, China-Russia-BRICS, so they need to keep the US economy and military viable and strong. If the day comes when all rivals are vanquished, then they won't need a strong US anymore, and the plan then is to break up the US into 'micro / mini states'. So a neo-feudalism where there are no large countries left to challenge the blob's world government. But they are light years away from that now. The blob's own short sighted stupidity allowed the China-Russia-BRICS juggernaut to form, and now the US/West blob is increasingly on the ropes.

So how do they get back on top? Sanctions, de-SWIFT-ing, trade wars, shooting wars, none of this will work. We've tried the stick, and it's failed. What we need is the carrot. Countries are clamoring to join BRICS because they will get infrastructure projects, nuclear powerplants, etc. For decades all the 'unipolar' US / West have offered countries is IMF debt, austerity, asset stripping, destabilizations, etc. The carrot side is what allowed China-Russia-BRICS to succeed, and the US will also have to use the carrot, or become a 'former' empire.

Trump's tariffs are likely a mistake, since countries will see it as more 'stick', just another form of sanctions to flee from. So they move ever closer to BRICS, and further out of the US orbit. The idea of bringing manufacturing back to the US makes sense, but not the timing. What the US has to do ASAP is to out compete BRICS on the carrot side --> help emerging countries with infrastructure, nuclear power, roads, ports, electric grids, etc. We have to go one better than China's Belt + Road. As it is, countries are joining BRICS in droves, with dozens more eager and waiting to join. This has to be turned around, and there isn't much time to do it.




---

[bigworld]

GFP: In 2016 and in 2020 the Swamp beat Donald Trump. He learned a lot in those years and he's really going to Drain the Swamp this time around. After all they put him through I hope so many heads roll in Washington DC that it stops traffic. I want to see prosecutions. Lots and lots of prosecutions. Bankrupt the purveyors of all the injustices perpetrated by the swamplings against Trump and his lawyers and supporters and against the poor Jan 6th victims. Bankrupt them with legal fees. Try to get the lawyers involved disbarred. Go after their pensions. Ruin them all. Then this kind of 3rd world banana republic lawfare won't be tried again any time soon. Create a deterrent that is remembered for 100 years.

[gfp927z]

Silver, Yes, good to see the metals bouncing, and the dollar chart looks like it could use a breather. That was quite a drop for the metals and miners, and they look like relative bargains.

Not sure if the Treasury bond yield rebound has peaked yet, but I picked up some additional 3 year notes today for my 3 year ladder. Yields fell too much in the summer and fall, then zoomed back up, and now look pretty attractive. I've been tracking the yields for several years during the Fed's tightening (link below) -


https://investorshub.advfn.com/Bonds-and-Fixed-Income-31578




---

[silver_bars]

While it's a little early to call it ... Silver may have bottomed around $30 ... and Gold around $2,540 ...

Current USD cycle looking toppy ... and war rhetoric so thick you can cut it with a knife.

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> Experienced Disrupters Wanted!


By James Rickards

November 18, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/experienced-disrupters-wanted/


Experienced Disrupters Wanted!

Now that the election is in the rearview mirror, the focus now turns to what the next four years are going to look like in a second Trump term. From all indications, things will not be business as usual.

Trump Turns The Tables

After being inaugurated as president in 2009, Barack Obama met with congressional Republicans to discuss his economic plans. There was a lot of complaining and pushback from the Republicans, but Obama made it clear he was going to push through his programs whether they liked it or not.

In a smarmy tone, Obama told the Republican leaders, “Elections have consequences” and added, “I won” for good measure. Obama did not have many major accomplishments, but he did push through Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act) and signed many executive orders to force changes in immigration law and to implement other preferences.

The phrase, “elections have consequences” was continually trotted out to make the point that winners can do what they want.

Now, events have come full circle.

Donald Trump not only won the White House in a landslide Electoral College vote and a majority of the popular vote, but his party took control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Now it’s the Republicans who are turning the tables on Obama’s famous quote.

A Defensive Change

Take Trump’s choice for Secretary of Defense, for instance. Trump appointed Pete Hegseth, Major in the U.S. Army, combat veteran with service in Iraq and Afghanistan, winner of two Bronze Stars, and graduate of Princeton and Harvard. He is well-qualified, but not a conventional choice in the sense that he does not emerge from the swamp of the military-industrial complex. He’s a fierce opponent of “woke” policies that are weakening our military and hurting enlistments. He’s determined to force the retirement or resignation of a large cadre of generals and admirals who are more interested in political correctness than they are in combat readiness.

The Trump transition team is also creating a “Warrior Board” that will systematically review senior officers (so-called “Flag Officers” consisting of generals and admirals) to identify those who are overly political, woke, or supported former Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff Mark Milley. Many will be forced out, which is not only good for morale but also creates space in the highest ranks for promotions of deserving Majors and Colonels.

More Disrupters

Or take two of his more “controversial” picks (if you listen to the hyperventilating of the mainstream media).

Tulsi Gabbard has been nominated to be the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She is a former member of Congress and a Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army with deployments to Iraq. She received both a Meritorious Service Medal and a Combat Medical Badge. Gabbard is assigned to the Army Reserve’s Psychological Operations Command, which is perhaps the best possible background for an intelligence chief. But yet, many are screaming “no experience”!

Matt Gaetz has been nominated to be the next Attorney General of the United States. He has a first-class legal mind and excellent cross-examination skills, which will be needed in the course of prosecuting bureaucrats who committed illegal acts during the Biden-Harris years. Again, Washington and the media are panicking at the thought of Gaetz heading the DOJ.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson sums up the Trump appointments battle best:

“Many of Trump’s first-round picks share some common themes. One, many, who were in the past victimized by government bullies and cowardly bureaucratic grandees, or proved sharp critics of the administrative state, are now, in karma-style, in charge of the very agencies that hounded him. So, Elon Musk, a perennial target of government regulatory functionaries, was once policed, but now he polices the bureaucratic police. Robert Kennedy, Jr., proposed overseer of government health programs, was often blasted as a crank by the subsidized scientists and the administrators within HHS whom he will now direct. Pete Hegseth fought the military DEI machinery while a soldier in the ranks and wrote a book about the corruption of the Pentagon. He will now, if confirmed, run the Pentagon. Tulsi Gabbard was improperly put on a national security travel watch list as a supposed security threat — and now will be a guardian of our security as Director of National Intelligence. Tom Homan was derided by the Biden administration and its Homeland Security minions as a fanatic border hawk; now he will run ICE and deal with the detritus of Biden fanaticism on the border. Two, none of these appointments are traditional swamp creatures. Few rotate from the think tanks. This time around there are no retired “Wise Men” or retired four-stars. Few are Uniparty magnificoes revolving back into high government from their DC university or New York corporate and investment waystations. None are DEI, cover-our-identity-politics-base candidates. By design, their past government service resumes are thin — few past undersecretaries of these or special assistants to those. And there are not a lot of suffixed alphabetic letters or prefixed long-winded titles that adorn their names. In other words, they are vaxed from the sort of acculturated administrative state mindset that has alienated and terrified the citizenry.”

Terrified, indeed.

Trump’s selections are what is needed to clean up the stink of Washington. Trump was the new kid in town in 2016 and failed to penetrate the Swamp. This time will be different and it will be like a breath of fresh air in the Beltway.

Give Obama credit where it’s due. Elections definitely have consequences.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> This is a war <<

It sure looks that way. Lots of angst and uncertainty, and if Trump goes the full 'fight, fight, fight' route, the question is what will the 'blob' do in response? The blob largely controls the mainstream Right and Left, so Trump and his team will be taking on the entire system.

However, key parts of the blob may want certain things that Trump can provide, including 'US bombs Iran', ending the Ukraine mess, lower corporate taxes, etc. So they let Trump go for a while, but then pull the plug at some later date? Who knows, but plenty of angst in the period ahead.

As investors, we have to figure out a general strategy for 2025 and beyond. Fwiw, I re-established the 10% 'Core' stock position today, but will wait before going any higher. I may reduce the max allowable stock allocation from 25% to 20%. With % rates up, I also added another month to the 3 year Treasury note ladder. So overall a conservative strategy.




---

[bigworld]

https://revolver.news/2024/11/swamp-nightmare-how-ag-matt-gaetz-can-make-the-doj-great-again/

[bigworld]

https://jameshowardkunstler.substack.com/p/beyond-consequence

[bigworld]

gfp: Trump has himself been smeared and has been the victim of the worst cases of lawfare ever brought by prosecutors at the Federal and State level ever seen in this country. He knows the intelligence community and the Department of Justice are corrupt and have been weaponized against all threats to their power. Trump sees Gaetz as having been in a similar position. Trump values loyalty above all other attributes. And Trump is a fighter and wants people in his Administration to be fighters as well. He only has about one year to 16 months to turn the apparatus of the country around. After that he has the mid term elections and he'll have to go all out to prevent another Democrat take over of the House or he will face the same obstruction tactics and bullshit impeachment attempts in his last two years as he suffered from 2019-2020. Trump has a Republican Senate thanks to Trump. Other than the awful Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski he can exert maximum pressure on all the remaining Republican Senators. And JD Vance to break any ties. Gaetz can get confirmed if the Republicans grow a backbone for once. No more Establishment squishes like Jeff Sessions. Fight, fight, fight. The Democrat Party is a criminal organization. They have to be fought like we would fight our worst enemies. The country is literally at stake. Trump doesn't give a damn what the Washington Post or the New York Times thinks or prints., or what CNN and the major networks spew. He want people who can deliver results. It's a refreshing change from previous Republicans. This is a war. Give me warriors to fight it.

[bigworld]

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-111524/card/the-market-s-fear-gauge-is-creeping-back-up-kTm9yaSskWbI84h3dh4r?siteid=yhoof2

[gfp927z]

Silver, Only a few months to go, and Biden & Co could still put us into WW 3. As Obama reportedly said --> 'Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*ck things up' -


>>> Biden approves Ukraine’s use of long-range U.S. weapons inside Russia, reversing policy


The Washington Post

by Ellen Nakashima, Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Alex Horton

11-17-24


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-approves-ukraine-s-use-of-long-range-us-weapons-inside-russia-reversing-policy/ar-AA1uf7RX?ocid=TobArticle


President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use a powerful American long-range weapon for limited strikes inside Russia in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow’s war effort, according to two senior U.S. officials.

The easing of restrictions on allowing Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia is a significant reversal in U.S. policy and comes as some 10,000 elite North Korean troops have been sent to Kursk, a region of Russia along Ukraine’s northern border, to help Moscow’s forces retake territory gained by Ukraine.

The Biden administration fears that more North Korean special forces units could follow in support of this effort.

The move precedes by two months the return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump, who has signaled he intends to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, though without offering details of how he will do so.

One U.S. official said the move is in part aimed at deterring Pyongyang from sending more troops. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must understand that the initial deployment has been a “costly” mistake, said the official, who like others interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

The initial Ukrainian effort is expected to focus on and around the Kursk region, though it could expand, according to the official and another person familiar with the matter.

The White House and Pentagon declined to comment. Ukraine’s presidential office declined to comment.

Until recently, the Biden administration was steadfastly opposed to Ukraine firing ATACMS into Russian territory, warning that the measure could lead to escalation by the Kremlin that was out of proportion to its battlefield benefits.

ATACMS — pronounced “attack-ems” — is a supersonic guided missile system that can be fitted with either cluster munitions or conventional warheads, with a maximum range of about 190 miles. Ukraine for months has sought permission to use the powerful missiles against Russian territory, arguing that the weapons would enable its strapped forces to strike deep in the country and hit targets that would degrade the Kremlin’s war machine.

The arrival of the North Koreans in October in the Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive in August, was seen by the West as a major escalation and spurred an intense effort inside the Biden administration and with allies on how to respond.

The White House wants to put Ukraine in the best possible place ahead of peace talks that the new U.S. president is expected to spearhead early in his term, U.S. officials said. Even before the election, Biden had committed to surging aid to Ukraine in an effort to cement his legacy on his way out of office.

“President Biden has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and January 20th,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Wednesday in Brussels, where he was meeting with European counterparts to discuss how to support Ukraine in the wake of Trump’s win.

A second U.S. official said that Biden’s approval of ATACMS “is going to have a very specific and limited effect” on the battlefield, designed to limit concerns about escalation.

“If news of the policy shift is true,” said Michael Kofman, a Russian and Ukrainian military expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “then it could be of operational benefit to Ukraine, enabling them to better defend and hold on to the territory they currently occupy in Kursk and help offset the benefit that Russia enjoys from employing North Korean forces in this specific part of the front.”

Previous steps framed as limited have cracked the door to wider forms of military assistance over the course of the nearly three-year war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “testing the West, NATO, and even South Korea, observing their response to North Korean forces joining his campaign,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X late last month. “If the response is weak, we should expect the numbers of foreign soldiers on our soil to increase.”

Russia’s capture of eastern Ukrainian territory has accelerated, buoying spirits inside the Kremlin, whose leaders now feel they have the advantage in a war that is no longer a stalemate.

The authorization follows months of resistance by the Biden administration about allowing Ukraine to use the ATACMS to hit targets within Russia. Senior U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed private concern that Russia could retaliate by escalating inside Ukraine and around the world. In denying Kyiv’s pleas to be able to fire ATACMS inside Russia, administration officials have publicly said that the use of the weapon would have marginal utility on the battlefield.

Pentagon officials, who were by far the most skeptical voice inside the administration, have argued that the benefits of allowing strikes in Russia would be limited because the Kremlin, anticipating a potential easing of the restraint, earlier this year pulled most of its warplanes and other assets deeper into Russia and out of range.

As of September, 90 percent of the Russian aircraft launching glide bombs into Ukraine were flying from airfields outside ATACMS range, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said at the time.

The policy move comes at a time of heightened political sensitivity as Biden seeks to alter Ukraine’s fortunes before Trump takes office, and as North Korean troops have bolstered Russia’s advantage on the battlefield.

Ukraine’s control of Russian territory has taken on intense significance as both sides scramble for advantage ahead of potential talks. People close to the Kremlin say that Putin is unwilling to start any negotiations while Ukrainians are on Russian soil. The Biden administration is focused on helping Kyiv preserve its bargaining leverage there as long as possible.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials believe that the presence of North Korean troops will free Russian forces to focus on gaining ground elsewhere as well as push the front lines forward in Kursk, where Ukraine captured territory in August, providing a morale boost to Ukrainians, who have been sapped by nearly three years of war. Pyongyang’s involvement has rattled Washington and its allies, who are wary of the assistance Putin might offer Kim in return.

At a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Peru on Friday, Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. In a statement, the three leaders said they “strongly condemn” North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia to “dangerously expand Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.”

The trio also noted the deepening military cooperation between the two countries, calling the supply of munitions and ballistic missiles “particularly egregious” given Russia’s status as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council.

U.S. officials have said that their concerns about Russian escalation in response to Western military aid have diminished over time as one weapons system after another has been provided to Ukraine without significant retaliation in response. Ukraine is already using U.S. equipment inside Kursk to attack Russia.

But Putin has been explicit that he considers the use of ATACMS a red line. In September, he declared that a strike by the missiles into Russian territory, which would probably involve U.S. targeting assistance, “changes the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” warning that his country would retaliate.

Later that month, he revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine in what was interpreted as a veiled threat against the use of U.S.-provided long-range weapons on Russian soil.

Administration officials who have previously been skeptical of allowing Ukraine to use U.S. long-range weapons for strikes in Russia have said that given the limited number of the advanced missiles, the blowback may not be worth the potential battlefield advantage. But with North Korea’s increasing involvement in the conflict, the U.S. calculus appears to have shifted.

Officials characterized the decision as a limited evolution rather than a new chapter in the war.

The authorization for the use of ATACMS on targets within Russian territory follows repeated requests by Ukraine. Early this year, Kyiv asked Washington to provide long-range ATACMS and in August requested that its forces be allowed to use them in Kursk.

“We have adapted and adjusted to the needs of Ukraine as the battlefield changes, as what Russia is doing changes, as new elements are introduced — for example, the North Korean forces,” Blinken said during the visit to Brussels on Wednesday.

“I can tell you that we will continue to adapt and adjust again, to make sure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to deal with this aggression,” Blinken said. He declined to comment on specifics about the steps the Biden administration was taking to respond to the North Korean troops.

If North Korean soldiers “do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game. They’re fair targets,” White House spokesman John Kirby said last month, warning that anyone fighting Ukrainian forces would face retaliation from Kyiv. “The Ukrainian military will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they’re defending themselves against Russian soldiers.”

Trump is expected to be far more skeptical of U.S. aid for Ukraine than Biden has been, and he has expressed eagerness to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv. Putin and Trump spoke in a call after the election, according to five people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic exchange. In that call, several people said, Trump warned the Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine and said he wanted to discuss the resolution of the war soon.

The Kremlin denied that the call took place.

Biden, though he has authorized tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, has been reluctant to grant Kyiv advanced U.S. weapons. He hesitated about sending the Patriot air defense system, then relented. A similar policy evolution saw Washington initially refuse to give Ukraine U.S.-made Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets.

The White House in May reversed a broad ban on Ukraine using U.S. military assistance to strike within Russia, after the Kremlin took advantage of the restriction by concentrating its forces in border regions and attacking across the frontier with relative impunity.

When Biden finally authorized the longer-range ATACMS earlier this year, he limited their use to within Ukraine’s own territory, enabling them to strike Russian forces on the Crimean Peninsula but not to hit within Russia itself.

The White House had maintained its ban on ATACMS strikes in Russia in part because of concerns that Russia would respond with force against U.S. and allies’ interests elsewhere. That could include the use of even more devastating weapons inside Ukraine, an increase in sabotage attacks in Europe and the United States, or intensified support for Iran and for the Houthi rebels in Yemen who have snarled global shipping, two other senior administration officials said in September.

Though this policy reversal gives Kyiv a significant new tool, Biden administration officials note that Ukraine has very limited stocks of ATACMS. Russia has shown that it has a significant shoot-down capability, and the Pentagon, whose own missile supply is dwindling, says it does not have many more to give without affecting U.S. readiness.

Defenders of Biden’s approach say he has been managing risks of escalation amid periods in which U.S. intelligence assessments have offered real warnings about the possibility of Putin using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine.

But the halting provision of advanced weapons and other cautious policies have caused frustration in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials have said. When troops finally receive the weapons or are freed to use them, the military returns are often diminished because conditions on the battlefield have changed, leading to preventable casualties and setbacks, according to soldiers and commanders on the ground.

<<<



---

[silver_bars]

Major military escalation between Ukraine/Russia/NATO appears to be on deck .....




https://x.com/ricwe123/status/1858248713287934418

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> Gaetz would go in there and take names and take heads <<

Gaetz seems like a capable guy, but he won't be able to do anything if he can effectively be smeared as sex predator, neo-Nazi, etc. Trump will have to replace him, and find someone with a clean history. So why not just get a clean guy to start with?



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> This is like blackjack <<

Yes, UVXY is like the 'Fentanyl' of speculation / gambling, way more volatile than even the 3X short ETFs. There's a reason Buffett doesn't mess around with this stuff.



---

[bigworld]

Latest Rinear:

Financial Intelligence Report

The Newsletter for people willing to take control of their financial future

*******************************************************************************************

Part 1: General Commentary
Part 2: Market Commentary

Those Hard Places

I want to start with a note that I put out to readers on Friday morning ahead of the market open.

11.15.2024

Wow, it's Friday and half of November is gone already. I shake my head at how fast time flies.

So, the market put on a pout yesterday and the Grand Poo-bah himself, didn't make it better. In fact, he kicked the bulls in the groin.

How? Well, like I said yesterday the PPI came in hotter than expected, and that's AFTER being doctored up with fuzzy math, bogus numbers and unicorn farts. Meanwhile the yield on the ten year, is already darned near the fed funds rate.

So, we've got inflation that I told you all was not conquered, we've got selling in the debt market, and an equities market that wants and need more stimulus to keep going.

In the morning yesterday, the consensus was that there was an 82% chance of a December rate cut. Then Powell had this to say...

The U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't need to be "in a hurry to lower rates," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday. The economy is still strong, Powell noted, and October's disappointing jobs report was mostly because of hurricanes and labor strikes. Powell's slightly hawkish tone dampened market enthusiasm and lowered traders expectations for a December rate cut.

By the time he was finished talking odds of a rate cut fell to 60%

Folks, remember when he was going to begin cutting rates and I said "he'll only go 25?" Well he didn't cut 25 he cut 50. It was lunacy. It was unprecedented. We went from no cuts for months on end, and then almost emergency like, he cuts 50 and tosses on another 25 last month.

Now he's in a bind. Inflation is still here. The debt market has brought the ten year down to within millimeters of his fed funds rate. How on earth is he going to justify cutting rates in December?

If he had done 25 and 25, he could slippery his way around cutting 25 more in Dec. But now? Not so much.

Mr. market is starting to see this, and here we are looking at bloody futures across the board. They are starting to think that their gravy train might be running out of fuel and they aren't happy about it.

Indeed. This market is without a doubt the most grotesque monster in the history of market monsters. I commented daily during the insanity of the tech market from 1996 - 2000, which in itself was a major bubble just looking for a pin. But at least back then, the insanity was focused around companies that could indulge in this new thing called the "dot com." So, it was somewhat confined to the tech stocks.

Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, investments in the NASDAQ composite stock market index rose by 800%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble. Everyone was so enamored with this new dot-com gold mine that companies that were no more than a desk, a phone, a computer and a business plan were trading for 100 dollars per share. It was all going to work out via the magic of this world wide web thingy. They had no sales, no revenues, but somehow it was a new world and it would all work out.

Well no. It was a bubble, and bubbles have been around for centuries. The most notable of course was the tulip bubble. In the mid 1600's tulips appeared in Europe, having been brought in via the Spice trade routes. Rare and hard to grow, they were a luxury item for sure, and It is no surprise that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent.

"It was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of tulips," according to The Library of Economics and Liberty of the time. But, the middle class folks were green with envy. They wanted tulips too.

From 1634 to 1637, the craze for tulips ballooned into lunacy. Tulipmania swept through Holland in 1634. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, "The rage among the Dutch to possess [tulip bulbs] was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade."

Prices simply skyrocketed. But it was okay, because no matter what you paid, someone would pay more to get one. People were paying more for a single tulip bulb than a beautiful house on the river. They were using margin leverage (credit) to buy these things. Entire farms were sold to buy a single bulb. What they hell were they thinking? The very same thinking that investors thought in 1999 when paying 200 dollars per share for a dot-com company that had no sales, no revenue, no profit. Just a dream.

So bubbles aren't new. Historically, the dot-com boom can be seen as similar to a number of other technology-inspired booms of the past, including railroads in the 1840s, automobiles in the early 20th century, radio in the 1920s, television in the 1940s, transistor electronics in the 1950s, computer time-sharing in the 1960s, and home computers and biotechnology in the 1980s. Every new thing brought us emotion driven bubbles, that far outpaced their value.

Now, today we're in the "everything" bubble. Tech is once again leading it with the AI bubble, which is being sold to us as the end all investment. Just as was the radio and the TV and the transistor. Yes, AI will be important to a number of companies behind it. But is every company in the S&P going to triple their sales because of some goofy AI, which right now is nothing but a search engine that looks around the Internet and regurgitates what it finds? No. Yet the market is pricing in those expectations.

We're being told that AI is so transformational, that every company will reap untold rewards from it. They told us that with Rare earths, and nano too. I'm still waiting.

The point is folks, this market is extremely overbought and it isn't JUST the techs. It's been pushed here by years of virtually zero interest rates, massive money printing, derivative levels in the quadrillions, crooked accounting, "non GAAP" reporting, lying BLS numbers, bogus inflation numbers and a host of other ills.

And, like the junkie that needs ever more junk to get the same level of high, the market needs ever more low rates, money printing, fake numbers, and what have you just to maintain its current levels.

So, since they were very confident that the feds would be cutting rates again in December, they pushed more money into sectors that depend on lower rates. Namely tech, and companies that offer a lot of credit ( banks, home Depot's, etc) But Powell's hawkish tone got their attention big time.

Which however puts Powell in that hard place. He wants to cut rates, but he has to make it justifiable. Can he do that with rising PPI and a barely static CPI? Tough call. So, on one hand the market's got momentum and Seasonality working for it.

One reason for the seasonality, has nothing to do with Thanksgiving, or good wishes, or the birth of Jesus. If traders have big profits, they try not to sell at year end. Why? If they sell now, they have to pay taxes in a few months. If they can wait until the new year to take profits, they don't have to worry about the tax man for another14 months.

I tend to think this market is terribly overdue for a rude shake out. The only question is when? It's hard to think they let it happen in what is normally a very strong period for the market. But then again...isn't the market's main job taking as much money from as many people as possible? Indeed it is. So, with everyone banking on the year end new highs rally, a rug pull isn't out of the question.

We could weaken here, pull back, trade sideways and down for a month, Powell "does" cut rate December 18th, and we rally through year end and into the vaunted "January effect." Or, they perk back up now, push us higher and bet on the cut again.

A lot to ponder, I know. I go through this every day. Just know, we've come a long long way, stocks are expensive, and everything has to go just right to keep the plates spinning. Good luck.

[bigworld]

gfp: I disagree completely. Gaetz has been a victim of the Deep State for years. He understands the problem as much as Trump does. And he has what most Republicans in Washington DC lack. He has balls. Consider the source and the reporting of those allegations. The Deep State can conjure up allegations against anybody. Gaetz took on a major Rino Deep State Puppet, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and got his ousted for lying to the Republican conference. So he made big time enemies. If there were anything to the allegations the Biden Justice Department would have persecuted him like they've done to the poor Jan 6th protesters. Gaetz would go in there and take names and take heads. The Democrats practically invented modern day law fare like we are some 3rd world banana republic. Now is the time for retribution. The people involved in these spurious cases against Trump need to be indicted for conspiracy in a Florida Federal Court, not in the DC Circuit. Trump was the victim and resides in Florida. His "injury" happened to him in Florida. So all the Justice Department people, FBI people, Marc Elias, Norm Eisen, and the State prosecutors in New York and Georgia, and the Biden inner circle that plotted and planned this lawfare against Trump from the White House must be indicted for conspiracy. They need to be prosecuted, found guilty, and sent to prison with a complete loss of their government pensions. The punishment has to be severe so to deter any such 3rd world behavior in the future. Gaetz is a pit bull. We need a pit bull. Not a timid squish like Jeff Sessions or a Deep State puppet like Bill Barr. Gaetz was a great pick. When you are in a war you go to war with real warriors.

[bigworld]

gfp: This is like blackjack when you KNOW that there are a lot of face cards still left in the shoe. You may lose a hand or two but you just keep playing because the odds are trending in your favor. A reckoning is coming. This month, next month, early next year. As long as UVXY is trading above $20 a share I'm keeping it for portfolio insurance. It could easily spike to $65 again in a very short period of time if we get a sell off. And a sell off could be triggered by any number of things. A faltering bond market, geopolitical events, or just more sellers than buyers that snowballs into an avalanche. At the current super high valuations based on the CAPE index and the Buffett Rule it is an everything bubble searching for its inevitable pin.

[gfp927z]

Rickards - >>> Trump Will Bring Justice, Not Revenge


By James Rickards

November 13, 2024


https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-will-bring-justice-not-revenge/


Trump Will Bring Justice, Not Revenge

The persecution and prosecution of President Donald Trump is finally winding down.

Jack Smith, a primary player in the lawfare campaign against Trump, has filed to dismiss the case involving classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. Rep. Jim Jordan has instructed Special Counsel Smith to preserve all records related to the cases.

The Deep State tried everything to make Trump lose. In total, 91 frivolous felony charges were thrown at the former president. All so they could brand him a felon, tie up resources and prevent him from campaigning.

Then there was the January 6th “insurrection”, multiple Russian collusion hoaxes and countless media lies.

The Deep State even prosecuted his advisers, such as 75-year-old famed economist Peter Navarro, who was the first former White House official ever imprisoned on a contempt-of-court charge. This dignified gentleman was frog-marched into prison as part of a political persecution campaign.

The entire affair was a disgrace to the nation.

On Election Day, Americans rejected this vile lawfare.

And soon, it will be time for justice. With GOP control over both sides of the Congress and a near-landslide win, Trump has a mandate from the American people to pursue it aggressively.

Truth and Reconciliation Commission

President Trump has not been shy about his intentions, stating, “The departments and agencies that have been weaponized will be completely overhauled.”

On day one, he promised to reissue his executive order allowing the President to remove “rogue bureaucrats” from their positions. Trump promised to “wield that power very aggressively” against the Deep State.

Our once and future President even promised to establish a “Truth and Reconciliation Commission”, opening the books on issues including the JFK assassination, illicit spying, and government corruption. I can’t wait to see what it uncovers.

Trump’s recent speech was packed full of details on how he plans to drain the swamp. He starts strong and keeps going:

This is how I will shatter the Deep State and restore government that is controlled by the people and for the people…

Make every Inspector General’s office independent and physically separated from the departments they oversee so they do not become the protectors of the Deep State…

Launch a major crackdown on government leakers who collude with the fake news to deliberately create false narratives and to subvert our government and our democracy…

Clean out all of the corrupt actors in our national security and intelligence apparatus…

Push a constitutional amendment to oppose term limits on members of Congress.

“Shatter the Deep State”. No ambiguity there.

Some will call what is coming revenge. But this will not be revenge. It will be justice. The distinction is important.

I would fully support justice here if the shoe was on the other foot, and the GOP were the offending party.

This type of behavior simply cannot stand. It undermines and corrupts the entire system. Re-establishing a just and fair government is critical.

It will be difficult, but I believe Trump will succeed this time. He has learned from the mistakes of his first term. Trump has the right people around today.

He has already rejected the idea of inviting Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo to join the new administration. This is an excellent sign of things to come.

Given the mandate, the appointment of Attorney General will be particularly important. I have my eye on Mike Davis. He is the exact type of person this position calls for. Tough as nails, fair, and dedicated to cleaning up the system. I’ve met the man, and he’s just the type of person required for this job.

The stage is set for a historic draining of the swamp. Of course, there is still the potential for last-minute desperation moves by the Democrats, including their plan to disqualify Trump using the “insurrection clause”. But given my prediction that Congress will be controlled by Republicans, I think we’ll be in the clear in that department.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Trump's boneheaded decision to nominate Matt Gaetz for Attorney General doesn't bode well. People have been assuming Trump has 'learned the ropes' of politics well enough to avoid a goof of this magnitude. What was Trump thinking? Even if the charges against Gaetz were all fabricated by the blob, Trump should have realized what a big distraction this would be, and it brings into question Trump's broader judgement. While the last four years were nuts, it looks like the soap opera is just beginning -


>>> Federal investigations into child sex trafficking and statutory rape

In January 2020, the U.S. Secret Service reportedly received a tip that, in April 2018, Gaetz had accompanied Seminole County tax collector Joel Greenberg to a government office where Greenberg was producing fake IDs.[262] Greenberg was indicted in August 2020 on an array of charges, including sex trafficking a 17-year-old girl in 2017 and creating fake IDs to facilitate sex trafficking.[263][264] The investigation of Greenberg led federal officials to look into some of Gaetz's related activities.[262] In late 2020, the Justice Department opened its investigation of Gaetz for allegedly sex trafficking the same 17-year-old girl in 2017 and whether he had violated federal sex trafficking laws by paying her to travel with him across state lines.[263][265][266] As part of his plea bargain, Greenberg cooperated with the investigation of Gaetz and others.[267][268] <<<


>>> In January 2018, Gaetz invited alt-right Holocaust denier Charles C. Johnson to attend Donald Trump's State of the Union address.[55] Johnson previously raised money for the neo-Nazi website The Daily Stormer.[56] Gaetz defended Johnson in an interview, saying that Johnson was neither a Holocaust denier nor a white supremacist.[55] <<<


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Gaetz




---

[gfp927z]

>>> Demand From Russia Could Add to Silver’s Upside


VettaFi

by Ben Hernandez

October 8, 2024


https://www.etftrends.com/gold-silver-investing-channel/demand-russia-could-add-silvers-upside/


Silver prices are up over 35% this year and could continue climbing. Global demand can further prop up prices and in the case of Russia, could add to the metal’s upside.

The Jerusalem Post noted that Russia could be changing its precious metals strategy, which could benefit silver due to increased demand. Silver could become a significant asset for the county’s wealth fund.

“According to a report released by Interfax this week and cited by Bloomberg, Russia’s Draft Federal Budget outlines plans to significantly bolster its holdings in precious metals over the coming years,” the report said. “Notably, the budget includes plans to acquire gold, platinum, palladium, and, for the first time, silver.”

As mentioned, silver’s gains could be a byproduct of gold’s rise this year. Gold itself is up close to 30%, but silver is also benefiting from its industrial usage as a key component in clean energy technology. That said, more countries like Russia are taking notice.

“The inclusion of silver in the State Fund’s acquisition strategy marks a departure from recent trends,” the report added. “While central banks around the globe, particularly Russia, have set records in gold purchases following international sanctions, silver has largely remained off their radar. This latest development suggests that silver’s role in Russia’s financial strategy may be evolving.”

If silver prices continue to exhibit upside, investors will want to obtain exposure. One easy way is via the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). The fund provides exposure to the precious metal without the additional hassle of storing it. It invests in unencumbered and fully allocated London good delivery silver bars. Additionally, shareholders can redeem their shares for physical bullion anywhere in the world (subject to certain minimum conditions) if they want a more tangible investment experience.

Combine Silver and Gold Exposure

As mentioned, gold has had a serendipitous rise higher this year alongside silver. Investors may want to add gold as a store of value and safe haven asset along with silver’s duality as a precious metal while also serving as an industrial metal. To that end, investors don’t have to maintain separate positions in both. They can look to funds that combine exposure like the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF).

PSLV is a closed-end trust that invests in unencumbered and fully allocated physical gold and silver bullion in LGD bar form. Overall, the goal of CEF is to provide a secure, convenient, and exchange traded investment alternative for investors who want to hold physical gold and silver without the inconvenience typical of a direct investment in physical bullion. Investing in shares of the fund also allows for higher liquidity as opposed to selling physical bullion at a local exchange.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> New Samsung EV battery technology has captivated silver bulls. Here’s the argument.


MarketWatch

by Jamie Chisholm

Aug. 23, 2024


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-samsung-ev-battery-technology-has-captivated-silver-bulls-heres-the-argument-a7db1a66


Amid all the volatility of recent weeks one market has proved relatively serene: gold has trundled higher to fresh records, popping above $2,500 an ounce for the first time.

Silver tends to act like a pilot fish, tracking the bigger bullion, but the grey metal has notably failed to follow gold’s record-setting, trading currently around $29.40 an ounce.

The world of precious metals does attract its share of evangelists and hype. But one assessment seems to be making the rounds, and over the last five sessions, silver has outperformed gold.

The analysis comes from retired investment professional Kevin Bambrough, the former president of Canadian asset manager Sprott who tweets and publishes YouTube commentary on precious metals.

In a recent posting on X, Bambrough argued that Samsung’s new solid-state battery technology, which incorporates a silver-carbon (AG-C) composite layer, should deliver a big boost in demand for silver.

The key drivers that will ramp up demand for EVs are range, charge time, battery life and safety, says Bambrough, and he forecasts that the Samsung technology will deliver a battery with a 600-mile range, a 20-year lifespan and a nine-minute charge.

A very, very big caveat: official numbers are unavailable. Bambrough estimates that as much as five grams of silver may be used per cell in Samsung’s new batteries.

“A typical EV battery pack containing around 200 cells for a 100 kWh capacity could require about 1 kg of silver per vehicle,” he says.

Global car production is about 80 million vehicles a year, according to Bambrough, so if say 20% of these were EVs and were to adopt the Samsung solid-state battery the annual demand for silver would be around 16,000 metric tons.

“This would represent a significant portion of the current global silver production, which is approximately 25,000 metric tons annually, highlighting the substantial impact on the silver market,” says Bambrough.

By some estimates, demand from the solar industry already has helped push the silver market into deficit as consumption, which also includes jewelry and investment, outstrips supply.

Bambrough is prepared to accept that his figures are mere projections. “Perhaps 5 grams might be high. Perhaps 20% will prove low for solid state battery penetration into the auto industry. It could be as much as 50% or greater looking 10-15 years out,” he says.

And in a later post Bambrough reiterated that his amount of silver-per-battery cell was guesswork, and that it could be as low as a half gram per cell.

Still, what the Samsung technology does suggest is that the silver market will get still tighter, allowing, he says, “the price of silver to take a run at its all time inflation adjusted high [of] $200/oz,” which would likely be seen in the coming 10-15 years.

“All one needs to do is look back at the silver chart of the 1970’s to see how explosive the precious metal can move skyward when a true shortage develops and speculators decide to hoard,” he says.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> More Trump tariffs are coming but CEOs sound prepared


Bloomberg

by Shawn Donnan

November 15, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rates-lot-lower-12-18-141632652.html


(Bloomberg) — The alarm from economists has been clear for months: Brace yourself. If he delivers on his campaign promises for an aggressive package of new US tariffs, they’ve warned, a re-elected Donald Trump will set the stage for a historic period of turmoil in the global economy.

And yet there’s a reason CEOs, bankers, investors and even Trump advisers have largely shrugged off warnings about the damage a 10%-to-20% universal tariff and even higher import duties on China would do, or the resurgence in US inflation they might bring.

From the incoming president’s own track record, many see evidence Trump is unlikely to deliver on all he has threatened, and express confidence they can adapt to whatever he delivers this time around.

Even as economists decried his plans as a terrible miscalculation, Trump ratcheted up protectionist threats on the campaign trail because they were a key part of an agenda popular with voters. After his win, he claimed a license to deliver on those promises.

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump told supporters. “Success is going to bring us together, and we are going to start by all putting America first.”

His former trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, who is expected to have a prominent post in a new administration, has warned that the rest of the world should be ready for new US tariffs and that any country with a trade surplus should be willing to address Trump’s grievances.

“Countries that run consistently large surpluses are the protectionists in the global economy,” Lighthizer wrote in the Financial Times last week. “We would be merely responding to the harm they have caused.”

But hanging over those threats are big questions: Is Trump bluffing, and even if he isn’t, how will the world respond? His first term in office was renowned for chaotic economic policymaking and bitter internal battles between rival aides on trade.

Trump also built a reputation as a transactional president, who was open to lobbying from CEOs like Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) Tim Cook on tariffs and flattery from foreign counterparts who learned trade threats could be defused with a promise to buy more Iowa soybeans, or even a peck on the cheek.

The world has also changed. Companies have worked hard on adapting to tariffs — avoiding them where possible and realigning supply chains. These are core skills now, honed through the chaos of the COVID pandemic and the advent of an era in which geopolitics drives trade and investment more than the sole pursuit of cost efficiencies.

In earnings calls Wednesday, executives at automakers including BMW (BMW.DE) and Honda Motor Co. (HMC, 7267.T) signaled they were prepared to weather any Trump tariff storm, thanks in large part to the large manufacturing operations they have already in the US.

“There is some natural cover-up against possible tariffs or whatever, but let’s not speculate whether there are tariffs. It might also only be that this is a verbal issue,” Oliver Zipse, BMW’s CEO and chairman, told analysts, pointing to growing sales in the US where it already manufactures cars. “In the United States, I would think we almost have a perfect setup for the time to come.”

Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK) CEO Donald Allan Jr. told analysts recently the company had been planning for a Trump victory and a new tariff regime since the spring. The plan calls for price increases on its machine tools to offset any new duties and shifting production out of China to other Asian countries or Mexico as necessary.

“We have a playbook on the shelf ready to go,” Allan said. But that doesn’t include doing what Trump wants companies to do. It’s “unlikely that we’re moving a lot back to the US because it’s just not cost effective to do,” Allan said.

Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), the home-furnishing chain, is ready for changes, too. Back in 2018, half of the San Francisco-based retailer’s imports came from China. Now, that reliance is 25%, Jeff Howie explained to analysts recently. “If this does come up and tariffs are expanded, we’re prepared to reduce it further.”

Such planning reflects an acknowledgment of a new business reality. But it also illustrates a growing acceptance among both policymakers and executives that tariffs can be a useful tool for governments facing international competition.

Everett Eissenstat, who served as Trump’s representative to the Group of Seven and G-20 in his first administration and is now a partner at law firm Squire Patton Boggs, said there was little to stop Trump from carrying out his tariff threats.

“This is really a huge shift,” he said. “I think we’re entering into a period of a recalibration of the global trading system.”

Even true believers in protectionism admit broad tariffs have some negative side effects. Trump’s victory sent the dollar (DX=F) sharply higher against Chinese, European and emerging market currencies. That raises the specter of not only less competitive US exports, but also potential economic turmoil outside the US that would reduce demand.

Trump’s stated goal for his trade strategy has always been to export more and import less. It’s why he sees the US’s persistent trade deficits as a profit-and-loss statement deeply in the red. A strong dollar that leads to US companies selling less overseas might anger Trump and only cause him to double down on protectionism.

Still, senior bankers say privately that companies and policymakers around the world are confident they learned how to deal with Trump and his trade wars during his first term.

Some of that has been fueled by other Trump advisers who quietly have been circulating on Wall Street and beyond for months, insisting that the now-incoming president’s tariff threats will be used as negotiating leverage against countries including China — not to spark all-out trade warfare.

The economic risk, of course, is that this is America’s frog-enjoying-the-warm-water-before-it-boils moment, where inflationary worries are ignored. One senior banker recently expressed concern that the clients he met with on his travels were in fact too sanguine about the turmoil ahead.

Aside From Tariffs

Tariffs aren’t the only ways Trump can upend global trade.

The next few years will likely bring a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement — the rebranded North American Free Trade Agreement that was a signature trade achievement of his first term.

Trump has signaled anger at Chinese investments in Mexican factories to produce electric vehicles and other products and avoid his original tariffs. He’s also linked immigration to tariffs by threatening harsh levies on imports from Mexico, if the new government there doesn’t block migrants from crossing to the US.

Delivering on much of what Trump promised on the campaign trail may depend on who controls Congress. That’s not necessarily the case with trade policy, in which US presidents have expansive authority to act unilaterally, particularly if national security can be invoked.

Any restraint will have to come from within a new administration, from financial markets or from domestic constituencies hurt by US tariffs or their inevitable flipside: retaliation.

‘Super Genius’

Elon Musk’s investments in both China, via Tesla (TSLA), and Trump’s campaign could wield more influence on what the new president chooses to do than the hawks in his national security team. “He’s a super genius,” Trump told supporters on Wednesday. “We have to protect our super geniuses.”

Though Trump repeatedly shrugged off economists’ warnings about his tariffs, the scale of the potential impact may also eventually end up giving him and his advisers pause.

According to calculations by economists Maeva Cousin and Eleonora Mavroeidi of Bloomberg Economics, raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% and those from all other countries to 20% would lead to a bigger shock than even the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 delivered.

That legislation, widely credited with setting off trade wars that deepened the Great Depression globally, saw average US tariff rates go from 14% to close to 20%. Trump’s proposals would send the average from 3% currently to more than 20%, a far steeper jump.

Combined with retaliation from China and other countries, by the 2028 election the tariffs would lead to US economic output being 1.3% lower than otherwise, the Bloomberg Economics pair calculated.

Given the scope of the potential fallout, Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics’ chief US economist, says the most plausible scenario is that while Trump will increase some bilateral tariffs, he won’t impose universal tariffs.

“We think procedural requirements, as well as the response from the economy, will limit the scope of trade actions,” Wong wrote in a research note this week. “We also assume US trade partners would retaliate in kind.”

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs economists said the most likely scenario would feature higher duties on imports from China, delivered quickly. The top rates would likely be reserved for strategic products, with consumer goods facing lower levies. That would lead to an average tariff hike on China of around 20 percentage points, they calculated — a level lower than the 60% Trump has threatened.

Trust Issue

There are those who also worry about a broader erosion in global trust in the US, even if Trump is slow to deploy his economic weapons.

Emily Blanchard, who until last year served as chief economist at the US State Department and is now at Dartmouth College, said there is little doubt that a second Trump term will bring a further deterioration in the US standing in the world and its economic alliances.

“If the US takes actions demonstrating that we’re no longer committed to openness and fairness, rules and transparency and predictability, then the whole game changes,” Blanchard said. “Firms, investors and governments are going to try to protect themselves and build out contingency plans.”

For those who believe that they can adapt to another Trump term or even charm their way through a trade standoff, there are examples to follow. Musk’s rise in Trump’s inner circle, for one, has proved that a politician once full of vitriol for electric cars can be won over by a man who made his fortune selling them.

Cook’s Approach

Then there was Apple’s Cook, who managed to avoid most of the company’s China-assembled products from being subjected to Trump’s tariffs in August 2019 by flying in to dine with the president at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Cook’s argument was simple: How could Apple compete against South Korean rival Samsung if the government was going to make his products more expensive?

“I thought he made a very compelling argument,” Trump told reporters the next day. Most of Apple’s products have avoided the 25% tariffs that other imports have faced.

Some national leaders similarly courted Trump, and seem to be preparing to do the same in a second term. Mindful of the risk their trade surplus with the US presents, South Korean officials have for months been drafting a plan to boost energy imports from the US if Trump is elected, Bloomberg reported this week.

European officials now girding themselves for a new rise in transatlantic tensions have their own examples to draw on.

In July 2018, facing a potentially devastating Trump threat of tariffs on European cars, Jean-Claude Juncker, who was then president of the European Commission, flew to Washington to try to work out a deal.

The night before a scheduled Oval Office meeting, two senior aides to the respective presidents hashed out a compromise under which the EU would buy American soybeans and natural gas. But whether Trump would embrace the deal was unclear, people close to the talks said.

Until the next day: Juncker marched into Trump’s office for the meeting and planted a healthy kiss on Trump as a greeting that not only charmed Trump but caused him to order up a Rose Garden press conference to quickly unveil the unfinished deal.

“Obviously the European Union,” as represented by Juncker, “and the United States, as represented by yours truly, love each other!” Trump later tweeted, attaching a photo of the kiss.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Rest of World’s Markets Broken By Trump’s America-First Plan


Yahoo Finance

by John Cheng and Matthew Burgess

November 13, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-reel-trump-america-034031299.html


(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s election victory has catapulted US stocks to fresh records and pushed the dollar to a two-year high. It’s anything but good news for the rest of the world.

Equities excluding the US are tumbling, with an MSCI gauge at its lowest in three months. An index of developing-market currencies has lost more than 1% following the US election, coming close to erasing this year’s gains. European stocks and the euro have flopped.

The stark divide between US and non-US assets has become more pronounced as Trump’s cabinet starts to take shape, with loyalists ready to carry out his “America First” proposals named for key posts. That has confirmed the worst of investors’ fears: that the push for higher tariffs, particularly on China, will gain momentum, alongside a host of potentially disruptive policies that can drive inflation higher and bind the hands of central banks.

Such worries have prompted investors to park their money in US assets. Fund managers’ exposure to American stocks jumped to the highest since 2013, according to a survey from Bank of America Corp. On the other hand, emerging markets such as China and Mexico, often seen as the most vulnerable to Trump’s trade policies, have taken a hit.

Trump’s more domestic-focused policies will favor US companies, said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Gama Asset Management SA. “We did reduce risk ahead of the US election, and it’s now time to increase portfolio exposure but rotate into investments which will benefit from Trump’s expected policy choices.”

Wednesday is shaping up to be another grim day, with an MSCI benchmark for Asian stocks sliding more than 1% and setting the stage for a weak session in Europe. Shares in South Korea were headed for a one-year low as foreigners sell companies like Samsung Electronics Co. that are vulnerable to trade protectionism.

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar edged higher after reaching its highest since November 2022 in the previous session.

Investors are closely tracking cabinet appointments for clues on whether Trump’s campaign rhetoric will materialize into policies. The president-elect had earlier vowed to impose massive new tariffs, eyeing a duty of 20% on all foreign goods and 60% or higher on those coming from China. That’s revived fears of another trade war that can disrupt global supply chains and hurt companies with a heavy reliance on US sales.

Trump’s other proposals include mass deportation and tax cuts, which could lead to higher inflation and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates.

As those prospects support the greenback and pressure emerging market currencies, some central banks including Bank Indonesia and Banco Central do Brasil have stepped into markets in the past week to support their currencies.

The People’s Bank of China set its reference rate for the yuan stronger than the market’s estimate on Wednesday, indicating its discomfort with currency weakness amid the threat of higher US tariffs.

That’s not to say there are no pockets of safety.

Money managers such as Pictet Asset Management SA are boosting their investments in markets like India that are deemed to be less affected by Trump’s policies. Punitive tariffs on Chinese goods can also spur a shift of investment away from the world’s second-largest economy and toward Southeast Asia, according to Kasikorn Asset Management Co.

But for now, US assets seem to be a clear winner.

“The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme looks like it still has plenty left in the tank,” said Michael Brown, a senior strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “I still have full faith in the bull case for equities, particularly with the incoming Trump Administration likely to provide a further fillip to economic growth, and corporate earnings, via a renewed round of tax cuts.”

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Republicans will regret Elon Musk’s efficiency project


Yahoo Finance

by Rick Newman

November 15, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-will-regret-elon-musks-efficiency-project-163157563.html


An enduring myth of Washington, D.C., is that Republicans want to slash government spending. In reality, they’re happy to trim here and there, but this is mostly a smoke screen to justify keeping taxes as low as possible. They also back huge amounts of defense outlays and want to keep all the pork flowing to hundreds of congressional districts and the patrons who fund their campaigns.

Elon Musk is about to call their bluff.

President-elect Donald Trump’s new ally is set to run an outside commission on government efficiency to identify ways to slash government bloat, axe hundreds of thousands of bureaucratic jobs, and cut trillions in spending. Then he will present his findings to Congress, which will find all the usual reasons to do nothing and look the other way.

Musk, of course, performed the same type of bariatric surgery at Twitter, the social media network he bought in 2022 for $44 billion. He executed mass firings, changed the name to X, alienated users and advertisers, and hacked nearly 80% off the company’s value. That’s not a great model for a business turnaround. But the government isn’t a business, and it doesn’t need to turn a profit. So Musk seems like the perfect guy.

Joining him will be Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur who’s adept at lecturing libs and normies about everything they don’t know. Their project will be called the Dept. of Government Efficiency, which is supposed to be funny because the acronym is DOGE, which is also the ticker symbol for Elon Musk’s favorite meme coin.

Two software engineers created dogecoin in 2013 as a kind of spoof of crypto products drawing buyers and investors despite having no inherent purpose or value. Dogecoin should be worth nothing, but it’s actually worth some $50 billion, in large part because of Musk’s promotion. The joke seems to be that Musk’s fix-government project evokes one of the most hyper-inflated assets in financial history, akin to the government, hahaha.

But it could end up being that Musk’s DOGE, the Dept. of Government Efficiency, will have no inherent value, either.

Musk and Ramaswamy seem to think they’re the first people to try to streamline the US government. They’re not even close. The Congressional Budget Office has a longstanding list of “options for reducing the deficit” that Congress routinely ignores. Dozens of think tanks have blueprints for streamlining government, including one from Manhattan Institute budget expert Brian Riedl that we discussed in detail recently on the Yahoo Finance Capital Gains podcast.

President Barack Obama appointed a bunch of experts to produce the 2010 “Bowles-Simpson report,” one of the most earnestly overlooked documents in American history. President Bill Clinton launched the “reinventing government” initiative, doomed to obscurity once ardent budget geeks tried branding it as ReGo. The 1986 Packard Commission actually led to some changes in defense procurement, but critics argued that it created more problems than it solved.

Musk, Ramaswamy, and their patron Trump think they’ll apply entrepreneurial moxie to succeed where so many others have failed. No doubt they’ll highlight massive inefficiencies and probably hundreds of billions of dollars in federal expenditures that could be better spent on something else or simply returned to taxpayers.

If the US government were a private-sector company, McKinsey or some other slasher consultancy could probably downsize it by 50% with no impact on output. Duplicate agencies could be consolidated or killed, bureaucrats replaced with automation, and outdated processes whiz-banged up to speed with artificial intelligence.

What Batman and Robin are bound to discover, however, is that the US government is nothing like the for-profit enterprises they’re used to manhandling. Uncle Sam has a board of directors with 535 members, each member of Congress having claim to some piece of turf in the executive branch and the funding that comes with it.

They’ll also discover that voters didn’t really ask for more government efficiency. It’s wildly inefficient to have a post office in every town, live humans to answer inane questions at the Social Security office, and federal land agents riding around on horses. But taxpayers want these services. A cardinal rule of politics is that you’ll pay a heavy price if you take something from your constituents that they’re accustomed to having.

Musk and Ramaswamy aren’t elected politicians and they won’t pay any price if Congress enacts their plan. But members of Congress will, and from their perspective, the government is actually very efficient. That's because it provides every member with a little fiefdom, and sometimes a big one, which they oversee and fund. Oversight and funding are the source of power in the US political system, and Congress built the massive executive branch in a way that optimizes the power of each member.

In a corporation, the CEO can exercise unbridled power to shape the organization as he or she wishes, as long as shareholders are on board. In the US government, Congress is the source of all funding, and the power of the purse is broadly dispersed. So when Team Musk presents its plan to X-ify the federal bureaucracy, it will basically be telling many members of Congress they need to cede power. Good luck, guys!

The DOGE master plan is due by July 4, 2026. Trump says it will be “the perfect gift to America on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.” That will also be three months before the midterm elections, so Trump’s fellow Republicans will be able to tell voters how they plan to follow Musk’s lead and cut dozens, maybe hundreds, of federal agencies. Then they’ll have to do it.

Don't Overly Get Excited.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Elon Musk wants to radically reshape who controls America’s money supply


by Elisabeth Buchwald

CNN

November 12, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-wants-radically-reshape-103047960.html


President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House already carried the potential for sweeping changes to the Federal Reserve. But now a growing question is not how the central bank will operate under Trump but if it’ll continue to operate at all.

Elon Musk, a key Trump backer who is expected to have considerable sway in helping shape Trump’s policies, included a “100” emoji while resharing Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah’s post on X calling for abolishing the Fed.

“The Executive Branch should be under the direction of the president,” Lee said Thursday in a post on X, hours after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters he wouldn’t resign if Trump asked him to. “The Federal Reserve is one of many examples of how we’ve deviated from the Constitution in that regard,” Lee added. “Yet another reason why we should #EndTheFed.”

Asked where Trump stands on the matter, Trump-Vance transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told CNN: “Policy should only be deemed official if it comes from President Trump directly.”

Calls to abolish the Fed are hardly new. Former congressman Ron Paul, who ran for president once as a Libertarian and twice as a Republican, published a book in 2009 titled “End the Fed.”

Then in June, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Lee introduced corresponding bills aimed at uprooting the nation’s central bank and shifting its responsibilities to the Treasury Department.

But thus far, Trump has not publicly voiced his support for dismantling the Fed. On the campaign trail, he has, however, advocated for changing the central bank’s rulebook, to the dismay of many economists.

Challenging the Fed’s independence

“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver,” Leavitt said in an emailed statement to CNN.

Those promises include bringing interest rates “way down,” which Trump vowed to do if elected at the National Association of Black Journalists’ annual conference in August. Presidents, however, don’t have any direct influence over the rates Americans pay to borrow money.

For over 70 years, it’s been the duty of the central bank to set rates at levels aimed at fulfilling its congressional mandate for price stability and maximum employment. And throughout that time, Congress has also guaranteed the Fed’s ability to act as an independent body, devoid of any political interference.

That’s empowered Fed officials to make interest rate decisions that aren’t necessarily popular but could help the nation’s economy in the long run.

For instance, central bankers resisted calls to lower rates, instead opting to keep rates at a two-decade high for a year to rein in stubborn inflation. It wasn’t until two months ago that they finally cut rates as inflation cooled to just shy of the Fed’s 2% target.

But on the campaign trail, Trump floated requiring Fed officials to consult with him on interest rate decisions. That could lead to pressure on Fed officials to keep rates lower to satisfy Trump’s wishes, which in turn could reignite inflation.

During his first term, Trump also threatened to remove or demote Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he has at times blamed for keeping interest rates too high.

It’s unclear if Trump has the legal authority to overhaul the Fed’s independence on his own, let alone at all, or remove a Fed appointee before their term expires. On the latter, Powell, a lawyer himself, made his view abundantly clear when asked by a reporter at last week’s press conference after the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting. “Not permitted under the law,” he briskly responded.

That’s because the head of America’s central bank can only be fired “for cause,” as specified in the Federal Reserve Act. The exact interpretation of what would constitute a for-cause firing has not been precisely defined, but it’s reasonable to assume that it would entail a lot more than just having policy differences with the president.

A spokesperson for the Fed declined to comment.

Testing the waters

If there’s any time for Trump to test the Fed’s ability to maintain its status quo, it would probably be in 2025. While the balance of power in the House hasn’t been determined, Republicans have majority control of the Senate. Additionally, six of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Republican presidents and half of those six were appointed by Trump in his first term.

But anyone challenging the Fed in the nation’s highest court shouldn’t expect to necessarily come out victorious. In a 7-2 court ruling this year, the Supreme Court ruled the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could continue to operate in its current form despite many Republican lawmakers’ arguments that its structure was unconstitutional.

And last month, the court declined to hear a case that threatened to dismantle the independent Consumer Product Safety Commission. Like officials sitting on the Fed’s Board of Governors, members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s board can only be removed by a president for cause.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Any chance you get to unload UVXY at a profit, I would take it. Holding it for too long isn't likely to end well -












---

[bigworld]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/vdh-fault-dear-democrats-yourselves

[bigworld]

double post

[bigworld]

https://jameshowardkunstler.substack.com/p/the-great-splainin-cometh

[bigworld]

gfp: Maybe I was being too optimistic but I thought the share price would be somewhat higher than it is by now. Such is the case with most start up biotech.

[bigworld]

gfp: A friend has McAlvany as her wealth management advisors. They sent her an analysis that gold and silver are in a Fibonacci retracement of about 13.5% that will last until possibly March due to technical and seasonality reasons. Whether that happens or not I'm not selling any gold or silver or miners or any other hard asset plays.

[bigworld]

gfp: UVXY is portfolio insurance. It's there in case we get a scary sell off, which is entirely possible. Smart money has been exiting equities. Insiders were huge sellers last quarter. Look at Buffett's positioning. Several analysts I read think we could easily get a 20% correction before the end of the year. The election caused too many people to place bullish bets. I look at the big move on the day after the election as a potential blow off top. I will hold for now and watch it daily. I won't hold it below $20. But as long as it holds over that level I'll hold on to it just in case.

[bigworld]

gfp: I love watching the libtards squirm.

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looking at Acurx, it fell through support today (had formed a bearish descending triangle in recent months). The Q3 press release (below) didn't mention the ongoing partnering talks, but we'll probably have to wait until Q-1 or Q-2 for any deal announcement, most likely. I missed the conference call, but will see if there is a replay available. I figure they'll at least do a regional deal, ie Japanese rights, Latin America rights, etc, but we'll see what happens. Luci previously said that there is strong pharma interest for numerous types of partnering. The cash level is getting pretty low though ($5.8 mil). They have the ATM, but raising money at these lower stock price levels isn't ideal.


>>> Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results and Provides Business Update


PR Newswire

November 13, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/acurx-pharmaceuticals-inc-reports-third-120000114.html


STATEN ISLAND, N.Y., Nov. 13, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACXP) ("we" or "Acurx" or the "Company"), a late-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a new class of antibiotics for difficult-to-treat bacterial infections, announced today certain financial and operational results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024.

Highlights of the third quarter ended September 30, 2024, or in some cases shortly thereafter, include:

In July 2024, results from the ibezapolstat (IBZ) Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with C. difficile Infection (CDI) were presented at the 17th Biennial Congress of the Anaerobe Society of the Americas by Taryn A. Eubank, PharmD, BCIDP, Research Assistant Professor, University of Houston College of Pharmacy delivered an oral presentation entitled: "Clinical Efficacy of Ibezapolstat in CDI: Results from Phase 2 trials."

Also in July 2024, and very timely given our late-stage development progress, the USPTO (United States Patent and Trademark Office) granted Acurx a new patent for ibezapolstat which specifically encompasses the "treatment of C. difficile Infection while reducing recurrence of infection and improving the health of the gut microbiome". This patent expires in June 2042 and we believe will provide an important downstream competitive advantage.

In August 2024, we submitted our request to FDA for a meeting to review our manufacturing processes and specifications for drug substance and final product and packaging (a "CMC Meeting") in order to commence Phase 3 clinical trials. This FDA submission is customary and follows our successful End of Ph2 clinical meeting with FDA which confirmed our Ph3 clinical trial readiness. We anticipate convening a meeting with FDA regarding CMC in the fourth quarter.

In September 2024, a presentation was given by Executive Chairman, Bob DeLuccia, at the World Antimicrobial Resistance Scientific Congress held in Philadelphia. In his presentation at the Innovation Showcase session, he highlighted that we have a complete roadmap, not only for the required components of our phase 3 clinical program, but also what's required for ultimate filing of an NDA (or New Drug Application) which is to be followed by submissions for Marketing Authorizations in other countries around the world. He also presented an update on the Company's preclinical GPSS® (Gram Positive Selective Spectrum) program for systemic oral and IV treatment of other gram-positive infections including, MRSA, VRE and DRSP.

Also in September 2024, we participated at the 8th Annual C. Difficile Symposium (or ICDS) in Bled, Slovenia, which is the premier global scientific venue for the review of C. Difficile research. At the ICDS Meeting, two presentations were made on behalf of the Company.

Additionally in September 2024, we announced that selected ACX-375 DNA pol IIIC analogues demonstrated in vitro activity against B. anthracis (or Anthrax), which is a Bioterrorism Category A pathogen, including activity against ciprofloxacin-resistant Anthrax. This work was performed at two independent qualified laboratories including the University of Florida. Planning is underway for an Anthrax bioterrorism development program.

In October 2024, we participated at IDWeek in Los Angeles, the annual scientific conference of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Drs. Kevin Garey and Taryn Eubank presented a scientific poster showing that in the Phase 2b clinical trial, ibezapolstat had comparable clinical cure and sustained clinical cure rates and safety profile to vancomycin. Also, 5 of 5 ibezapolstat patients who were followed for 3 months after end of treatment (EOT) experienced no recurrence. Ibezapolstat-treated patients showed decreased concentrations of fecal primary bile acids, and higher ratios of secondary to primary bile acids than vancomycin-treated patients.

International regulatory filing initiatives will continue in Q4 2024.

Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results

Cash Position:

The Company ended the quarter with cash totaling $5.8 million, compared to $7.5 million as of December 31, 2023. During the third quarter, the Company raised additional proceeds under its ATM financing program, with gross proceeds of approximately $1.6 million.

R&D Expenses:

Research and development expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $1.2 million compared to $1.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023. The decrease was due primarily to an increase in manufacturing related costs during the quarter of $0.1 million, offset by a reduction in consulting fees of $0.2 million. For the nine months ended September 30, 2024 research & development expenses were $4.6 million compared to $4.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023, an increase of $0.5 million primarily due to $0.9 million increase in manufacturing related costs, offset by $0.4 million decrease in consulting fees.

G&A Expenses:

General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2024 were $1.6 million compared to $1.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023, a decrease of $0.2 million. The decrease was primarily due to $0.2 million increase in professional fees, a $0.1 million increase in compensation costs, offset by a $0.5 million decrease in non cash share-based compensation related costs. For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, general and administrative expenses were $6.7 million compared to $5.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023, an increase of $1.3 million. The increase was primarily due to $1.1 million increase in professional fees and a $0.2 million increase in legal costs.

Net Income/Loss:

The Company reported a net loss of $2.8 million or $0.17 per diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2024 compared to a net loss of $3.1 million or $0.24 per diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2023, and a net loss of $11.3 million or $0.71 per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a net loss of $9.5 million or $0.77 per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 for the reasons previously mentioned. The Company had 16,770,378 shares outstanding as of September 30, 2024.

Conference Call

As previously announced, David P. Luci, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Robert G. Shawah, Chief Financial Officer, will host a conference call to discuss the results and provide a business update as follows:

Date:

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Time:

8:00 a.m. ET

Toll free (U.S. and International):

877-790-1503

Conference ID:

13749688

About Ibezapolstat

Ibezapolstat is the Company's lead antibiotic candidate preparing to advance to international Phase 3 clinical trials to treat patients with C. difficile Infection (CDI). Ibezapolstat is a novel, orally administered antibiotic being developed as a Gram-Positive Selective Spectrum (GPSS®) antibacterial. It is the first of a new class of DNA polymerase IIIC inhibitors under development by Acurx to treat bacterial infections. Ibezapolstat's unique spectrum of activity, which includes C. difficile but spares other Firmicutes and the important Actinobacteria phyla, appears to contribute to the maintenance of a healthy gut microbiome.

In June 2018, ibezapolstat was designated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) for the treatment of patients with CDI and will be eligible to benefit from the incentives for the development of new antibiotics established under the Generating New Antibiotic Incentives Now (GAIN) Act. In January 2019, FDA granted "Fast Track" designation to ibezapolstat for the treatment of patients with CDI. The CDC has designated C. difficile as an urgent threat highlighting the need for new antibiotics to treat CDI.

About Acurx Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Acurx Pharmaceuticals is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a new class of small molecule antibiotics for difficult-to-treat bacterial infections. The Company's approach is to develop antibiotic candidates with a Gram-positive selective spectrum (GPSS®) that blocks the active site of the Gram+ specific bacterial enzyme DNA polymerase IIIC (pol IIIC), inhibiting DNA replication and leading to Gram-positive bacterial cell death. Its R&D pipeline includes antibiotic product candidates that target Gram-positive bacteria, including Clostridioides difficile, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin resistant Enterococcus (VRE) and drug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (DRSP).

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, I see Timiraos is indicating doubt about a Dec rate cut. Not definitive, but he's setting up expectations that the Fed 'may' decide to sit pat in Dec.

Looking at the metals, the gold and silver futures charts both left hammer type candlesticks yesterday, which are often seen at bottoms. Not sure that this is the final bottom though, but probably not a bad entry point for at least an oversold bounce. Apparently December is a historically weak month for the US dollar, so if the dollar does pull back, then metals bounce. But going into next year, it sounds like we may be in for an extended period of relative dollar strength, as the Fed balks at further % cuts, tariffs kick in, etc.



---

[gfp927z]

>>> Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble as traders trim rate-cut bets


Yahoo Finance

by Karen Friar and Hamza Shaban

November 15, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-tumble-as-traders-trim-rate-cut-bets-143057059.html


US stocks sank on Friday, on track for weekly losses as investors absorbed Chair Jerome Powell's signal that the Federal Reserve won't hurry to make interest-rate cuts.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid roughly 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led declines, falling nearly 2%.

Powell's hawkish comments are casting a pall on markets as the initial optimism for President-elect Donald Trump's policies starts to wear off. The S&P has already reversed one-third of its post-election rally, and the Nasdaq is poised for a weekly loss of around 1%.

Retail sales data released on Friday morning reflected continued resilience in the American consumer, a sign of the economic strength Powell suggested would allow the Fed to take its time. October sales rose 0.4% month on month, versus 0.3% expected, including a revision higher for September's reading to 0.8% from 0.4%.

Wall Street is back to puzzling over the Fed's path next year, a question already muddied by this week's inflation prints. As of Friday morning, traders are pricing in 55% odds of a rate cut at its December policy meeting, compared with 72% the day before, per CME FedWatch tool. Bets on a January easing stand at 69%, versus the previous 81%.

At the same time, investors kept a watchful eye on Trump's preparations for power, after vaccine stocks fell amid reports Robert F. Kennedy Jr will be named top health official. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon made it clear Thursday he won’t be joining the new president's team.

<<<



---

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, It looks like the stock market is getting a reality check concerning the tariffs, etc. VIX is moving up, so it might be an opportunity soon to get out of VIX plays even or with a gain. It's also possible the market sells off and meanders lower for a while, since the source of the angst (fear of tariffs, etc) isn't going away anytime soon. It will be months of uncertainty, so the market could remain spooked for some time. Just a guess though.

With my own strategy, I'll probably let things settle out before re-entering the market. Joining Buffett in cash / T-Bills seems like a sensible strategy for now.



---

[gfp927z]

Silver, Good point about the surging dollar creating problems for emerging countries. Trump's proposed policies are already triggering a broad series of effects. It might be better to just shelve the whole tariff idea if it means higher % rates for longer.

By quickly raising prices, the tariffs will send inflation back up, thus forciing the Fed back into hawkish mode, which then pushes us into recession. The interest on the massive US 'debt bomb' will eventually be our undoing, but lower % rates could at least extend the runway and delay the day of reckoning.


>>> A surging U.S. dollar is hammering emerging-market stocks and metals. Watch out.

Overbought dollar could lead to trend change, with knock-on effects for other assets, analyst says


Market Watch

By William Watts

Nov. 14, 2024


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-surging-u-s-dollar-is-hammering-emerging-market-stocks-and-metals-watch-out-e9be2759


The dollar is on a tear.

The U.S. dollar remains an unabashed beneficiary of Donald Trump’s presidential-election win — and its relentless rise is causing significant pain for some emerging-market assets and commodities.

It also sets the stage for further volatility if traders decide the dollar rally has gone too far, too fast.

“The dollar is overbought and challenging resistance while several metals and emerging markets (EM) are oversold and trying to hold above key support,” said Kevin Dempter, analyst at Renaissance Macro Research, in a Thursday note.

“We’ll be watching how they respond to their overbought and oversold conditions closely. A strong response to the overbought condition in the dollar will likely lead to a bullish trend change and vice versa for the metals and EM,” he said.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, jumped 2.1% from election day through Wednesday’s close, trading at its highest in a year. The index, heavily weighted toward the euro and Japanese yen, has rallied more than 6% since late September, when Treasury yields began rising in response to both strong economic data and expectations for a Trump victory that could lead to larger fiscal deficits, more inflationary pressure and fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The dollar rally has continued, in a move partly attributed to those factors and to expectations that wide-ranging tariffs on imports would boost demand for the U.S. currency relative to its peers.

See: Another Trump presidency could be a boon for the dollar — but some expect a bumpy ride

Broadly speaking, a rapidly strengthening dollar can cause pain for emerging markets, sucking away foreign investment and capital. It also makes it more difficult for emerging-market borrowers to pay dollar-denominated debts. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund fell 4.7% from Election Day through Wednesday’s close and is down 8.8% from its recent peak on Oct. 7.

U.S. stocks have soared, outpacing developed and emerging markets alike. The S&P 500 on Monday closed above the 6,000 milestone for the first time, after it, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite, last week saw their biggest weekly gains of 2024. The S&P 500 remains up more than 25% in the year to date.

A stronger dollar can also be a weight on commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. Copper futures have dropped 8.7% since Election Day and are down more than 21% from a record high set earlier this year, having suffered a retreat on disappointment in growth in China and the country’s stimulus efforts.

Other industrial metals have also suffered, while gold has pulled back after setting a series of records this year.

Commodities Corner: Why gold prices are now dropping on the heels of Trump’s win

Gold miners, tracked by the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF GDX, have retreated sharply, turning deeply oversold and approaching support at the 200-day moving average, Dempter said. A break below that support level, which stood at $35.19 Thursday, according to FactSet, would be a signal to start rotating out, he said.

The rising dollar has battered oil futures, which have also been contending with weak China demand and rising production outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

Meanwhile, Asia stands to suffer the most if the dollar continues its upside tear, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. A surging dollar has battered the region before, slamming local-currency debt, which he described as the backbone of Asia’s emerging markets.

Some relief may be in store, however, if the dollar sticks to its pattern of seasonal weakness in December — a scenario that Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, sees as likely. He noted that December has been the worst month of the year for the ICE U.S. Dollar Index over the last 10 years, with an average decline of 0.95%.

“Overall, the key takeaway is that despite this ongoing downtrend over the last month, EEM is likely to stabilize in December as [the] U.S. dollar begins a month-long retreat,” he said. The two key areas to watch for the emerging-markets ETF, he said, are support at $42.50 and, below that, $41.

<<<



---