Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Om, >> EHang <<

It looks like the Chinese could be well ahead of the US in air-taxi development / rollout. Also check out their ultra modern cities, bullet trains, etc. The US now has a mega competitor, and the world has been steadily gravitating toward China / BRICS.

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[gfp927z]

Om, Yes, the market recovery could be getting ahead of itself for sure, and Jamie Dimon and others are pointing out the risks. At minimum we need a pullback to the 200 MA, just to get things on firmer ground. So that's my working assumption, the only question being whether the pullback comes before the S+P 500 reaches the Feb highs (~ 6145), or after. I dropped the Flex side down to 1% (from 7%) in anticipation of a pullback.

But as you said, the market drop could be a lot worse than that since there are so many landmines out there. Beyond the tariff related uncertainties, the timing of deals, whether we get a full recession or just a slowdown, etc, there are also some black swan type concerns in the months ahead. In particular is the 'US bombs Iran scenario'.

Trump would prefer a deal, but more likely the bunker buster bombs will be falling at some point, to knock out Iran's underground nuclear program. A lot of powerful interests don't want to see the Ukraine war end, and similarly with Iran, these interests want the underground nuclear sites destroyed. There's a logic to that too, and it may be better to just get it over with since the world clearly doesn't need another North Korea. But for investors it's another landmine to consider, possibly this summer or fall.




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[ombowstring]

The progress that Ehang (EH) has made is impressive. Despite my reluctance to invest in Chinese stocks and despite the fact that the stock is overvalued at this point relative to its earnings, I'm inclined to take a position in the stock after things shake out in the markets. But again, my inclination is to wait until stocks globally draw back. There is a lot of optimism that things are OK financially internationally, but I don't think that optimism is well-founded. The whole re-ordering of global trade is ominous. I don't think that peace in the Russia-Ukraine war is a realistic outcome. Madman Putin, evil to the core, wants to take over the whole of Ukrainian territory and at best is pretending he wants peace. The Middle East is a conflagration waiting to happen. India and Pakistan may go to war. And there may be many unexpected troubles that might surface globally. Everything was just fine on the Titanic until it hit that iceberg. God waited a long time before he destroyed Pompei because of the people's wickedness. Likewise with Sodom and Gomorrah.

[ombowstring]

>> The conservative Core / Flex approach has been working well in recent years. << As you should know, what has worked previously doesn't mean that a certain strategy will continue to work well. The market went up approximately 20% in each of the last two years. It's not reasonable to believe that that success rate will continue. There are just too many warning signs, harbingers of doom for me to believe that the stock market isn't going to take a pause and indeed give back a lot of those gains. There's the very serious global debt situation that is very worrisome. And Jamie Dimon had this to say -

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says markets are too complacent on tariffs, expects S&P 500 earnings growth to collapse

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/19/trump-tariffs-jpmorgan-chase-ceo-jamie-dimon.html

I asked Gemini "Is complacency in the stock market a reliable indicator of trouble ahead?"

https://gemini.google.com/app/24cde095057e10f1?utm_source=gemini&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2_5_pro_announcement

>>> Stock Market Complacency: A Warning Sign, But Not a Crystal Ball
Stock market complacency, a state where investors exhibit low levels of fear and a strong belief in continued positive market performance, is often viewed as a potential warning sign of trouble ahead. However, while it can be a useful sentiment indicator, it is not a consistently reliable predictor of market downturns on its own.

Market analysts and experienced investors frequently point to periods of high complacency as contrarian indicators. The reasoning is that when the majority of market participants become overly optimistic and disregard potential risks, markets can become vulnerable to negative surprises. This is because widespread complacency can lead to:

Elevated Valuations: Unchecked optimism can drive asset prices beyond their fundamental values.
Increased Risk-Taking: Investors might take on excessive leverage or invest in speculative assets, believing the market will only go up.
Reduced Hedging: Fewer investors may see the need to protect their portfolios against potential downturns.
The VIX: A Popular Gauge of Complacency

One of the most commonly cited measures of market complacency (or rather, its inverse, fear) is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). Often dubbed the "fear gauge," the VIX reflects the market's expectation of 30-day volatility in the S&P 500. A very low VIX reading typically suggests that investors are complacent and expect calm market conditions to persist. Conversely, a high VIX indicates heightened fear and uncertainty. Historically, extremely low VIX levels have sometimes preceded periods of market turbulence.

Limitations and Considerations

Despite its intuitive appeal, relying solely on complacency as an indicator of impending trouble has significant limitations:

Not a Precise Timing Tool: Markets can remain complacent, and continue to rise, for extended periods before any correction occurs. A low VIX or other signs of complacency don't signal an immediate crash.
False Signals: There have been instances where complacency has been high, but no significant market downturn followed, or the subsequent dip was minor and short-lived.
Context is Crucial: Complacency should be assessed within the broader economic and financial context, including interest rate environments, geopolitical events, corporate earnings, and overall economic health.
Better in Conjunction: Sentiment indicators like complacency are generally more effective when used as part of a broader toolkit that includes fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and other economic indicators.
The Contrarian Viewpoint

Conversely, periods of extreme fear and pessimism (the opposite of complacency) are often seen by contrarian investors as potential buying opportunities. When investor sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, it can mean that most of the selling pressure has already occurred, potentially setting the stage for a market recovery.

Conclusion

In summary, while a high degree of complacency in the stock market can be a legitimate cause for caution and a signal that risks may be rising, it is not a foolproof or consistently reliable standalone predictor of imminent market trouble. It serves as a valuable piece of the puzzle in assessing market sentiment and potential vulnerabilities, but investors should consider it alongside a wide range of other factors before making investment decisions. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and relying on any single indicator, including complacency, can be a risky strategy. <<<

With the historically best six months of the year behind us now, in my mind the time is ripe for a reversal in the recent upward trend for stocks.

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Btw, when the Comey 8647 news hit, it sure looked like a Deep State warning to Trump about something, but it turned out Comey has a book coming out, so it was likely just a publicity stunt to gin up sales. But then yesterday Trump suddenly walked away from the Ukraine peace negotiations, so you have to wonder.

Comey was a big factor in Hillary's loss in 2016, when he famously re-opened the email investigation 11 days before the election. So is a Deep State faction using him again to get Trump back in line on his 'wayward' foreign policy? We know a big part of the foreign policy establishment has been against restoring US relations with Russia, and they (Victoria Nuland) pushed to get Russia embroiled in a long debilitating war, etc. That faction would be strongly against ending the Ukraine war. But since the Trump 2.0 cabinet and advisors are so insulated from the usual Deep State advisors, to get a message to Trump they use Comey as the 'messenger boy'.

Who knows, but it sounds like a possibility, especially the timing of events -- 1) Comey's 8647 warning, 2) Trump suddenly walks away from the Ukraine peace negotiations, and now 3) Putin starts test launching ICBMs, the peace process is scrubbed, and the war continues indefinitely. So mission accomplished for the Deep State ghouls.




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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious if you are still holding with the full SVIX position? Thanks.

The S+P 500 looks like it could use a pullback / consolidation, but is showing resiliency. The RSI briefly reached overbought (70), but has come down to under 68, and the Chande is only barely in the green, so no obvious red flags there yet. The Nasdaq is back to 69 on the RSI, and has gone basically sideways for 5 days, so a 'quasi' consolidation. The Russell has gone sideways for 7 days, with RSI at 64, and the DJIA is at only 63 on the RSI.

The long end of the bond market is sitting ominously just under 5%, and the metals / miners are bouncing back from the recent pullbacks. So what comes next I wonder? I already took profits on most of the Flex side, with the idea of re-entering once the S+P 500 pulls back to the 200 MA. But instead, the market may not pull back and just continue on up to the Feb high. Probably will depend on news flow, additional tariff deals, etc.



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[bigworld]

gdp: Well if it is any consolation Japan is in far worse shape. Their debt to GDP is now at 234%. The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is almost at 100% of GDP. The BOJ is the largest holder of Japanese bonds AND STOCKS in the world. And Japan just had a failed Bond auction. Throw in their demographic implosion and you're looking at the first country that's going to blow up financially. Watch what happens to Japan because that's our future.

[gfp927z]

Well, I brought the stock allocation down a little more, to 11% from 12%. The chart is starting to look somewhat 'artificial', and the additional upside may not be worth the risk. The S+P 500 looks overextended, and a pullback to the 200 MA could put it back on firmer ground. On the other hand, it might keep truckin a while longer, to reach the old highs ~ 6145, which would be an additional gain of 3% from here.

Anyway, here's the current allocation -

Core -10%
Flex - 1%



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Yes, a house of cards for sure. So how long can the Ponzi scheme continue is the question? The debt bomb is now parabolic, and in that case trying to rein it in at all could trigger a liquidity crisis that brings it all down. Several years ago, Rickards compared the situation to an inevitable avalanche, with the only question being when, and what will be the trigger event. Quadrillions in Derivatives are piled on top of the underlying financial instruments, which is what turned the 2008 crisis into a global near death catastophe. Trump came in like a bull in a china shop, on steroids, so that could turn out to be the trigger event that gets things snowballing. The timeline is the question - does the unraveling happen soon, in a few years, five years, etc? Guess we'll find out..



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Thanks for that article. The 30 year Treasury has been bumping up to 5%, so that could be part of the reason for the Fed's stealth QE. A few months back the Fed announced they were dramatically reducing their QT runoff policy, so it looks like they are now back to the QE side. Another aspect could be related to the tariff saga, since it was revealed that Trump 'blinked' last month due to Carney and EU central banks dumping Treasuries as a warning to Trump. So some of that type of manuevering could be ongoing. Add in the fact that hardly anyone wants to buy our long term debt anymore, and the Fed buying it becomes the last resort to prevent a failed Treasury auction. I remember last year there were numerous longer term Treasury auctions where demand was very weak..

And from that last article, the plot thickens -

>>> China has jumped into the gold pit too, and brings a bigger shovel. China’s central bank just cranked open the vault doors by dramatically raising gold-import quotas, letting local banks swap U.S. dollars directly for bullion.

That’s China quietly telling Uncle Sam that holding all those U.S. Treasurys is starting to feel less like prudent investing and more like playing roulette with the house on fire. <<<



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[bigworld]

gfp: Here's a headline from Zero Hedge: "Goldman Reiterates Its 'Long Gold' Recc Amid Price Dip, Targets $4,000 By Mid-2026"

Gold is really the only safe haven. Government confiscation of gold is not going to fly the second time around. This isn't 1930s America anymore. Any citizen with half a brain now knows that the Federal government is a corrupt, lying, criminal enterprise fronting for an oligarchy that owns most of the assets and reaps most of the rewards. Gold has a huge tailwind now with governments around the world desperately accumulating gold in anticipation of the great reset that has to happen. Gold, and silver to a lesser extent, should be bought on any dips in price. It won't make you wealthy, but it will preserve the buying power of your capital. I've known this was coming for over. decade. You just need a rudimentary understanding of basic math to realize we can't afford the government and military that we have. So we decided to pay for it since the 1980s on our national credit card. Now we have to borrow all the money we do just to pay the interest on the debt we accumulated over the last 43 years. That's the end game of a fiat currency. Debt has destroyed more empires than wars have. I was naive to think the election of Trump would make things better. But spending is not being reduced by any appreciable measure. The Congress lacks any moral courage to level with the American people. This current spending bill they are considering still adds over $2 Trillion a year in additional debt every year. And the so called "savings" are always back end loaded which means that the "cuts" will never really come. This is just all accounting gimmicks. The Federal government will NEVER do the right thing which is to drastically reduce spending and quit adding to the Debt. But they won't. Until our bond market completely collapses, the Dollar disintegrates and the populace goes Mad Max trying to stay alive.

[gfp927z]

>>> Why is the Fed quietly buying billions in bonds — and hoping nobody notices?


MarketWatch

by Charlie Garcia

May 17, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-fed-quietly-buying-billions-112500917.html


The U.S. Federal Reserve just pulled off something stealthy — over four days last week, without fanfare, the Fed vacuumed up $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasurys. That’s $8.8 billion in long-dated 30-year bonds on May 8 alone, plus another $34.8 billion earlier in the week. Not exactly small change.

Quietly returning to the quantitative-easing trough isn’t standard Fed housekeeping — it’s like a bank robber returning to the scene because he forgot his car keys.

Let’s talk straight: This isn’t tightening. It’s stealth easing. It’s monetary policy on tiptoes. Some traders have begun to notice, and smart investors should too.

Financial analyst Lyn Alden offers a cautious interpretation: the Fed isn’t officially calling this QE. They’re merely reinvesting proceeds from maturing bonds to prevent rapid balance-sheet shrinkage. Technically true— but let’s not fool ourselves. Bond buying is bond buying, whatever bureaucratic label you slap on it.

Commodity traders, in particular, have a nose for monetary sleight-of-hand. Gold, the ultimate financial cynic’s metal, has risen sharply since early 2024. Gold doesn’t believe in politicians, central bankers or economists — even the Ivy League types who wave their hands and promise stability. It believes numbers.

But this isn’t just a U.S. game. China has jumped into the gold pit too, and brings a bigger shovel. China’s central bank just cranked open the vault doors by dramatically raising gold-import quotas, letting local banks swap U.S. dollars directly for bullion.

That’s China quietly telling Uncle Sam that holding all those U.S. Treasurys is starting to feel less like prudent investing and more like playing roulette with the house on fire.

Think about it. Even if China converts into gold a modest 10% of the $784 billion Treasury stash it held as of February, it would send tremors through global markets.

China isn’t hoarding gold because it matches the curtains — it’s preparing for a monetary earthquake. Central banks around the world are doing the same. America just imported a mountain of gold. Nations are bracing for the next seismic shift in global monetary power.

Gold and bitcoin BTCUSD are responding, too — bitcoin because crypto investors distrust central planners; gold because central planners distrust each other. Bitcoin is the back-alley asset that respectable investors pretend they don’t visit. Bitcoin is rising not only due to distrust of central banks and the neat little fiat-currency Ponzi schemes they’ve been running for years — but also because a year ago, bitcoin experienced its latest halving event, pushing it into the typical bullish upswing of a four-year cycle.

There’s more. The Trump administration, previously wary of crypto, has shifted significantly, establishing a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve — a move signaling institutional-level confidence that bitcoin isn’t just a speculative fad but an asset worthy of strategic importance.

Additionally, institutional and retail money is flowing into bitcoin ETFs — reinforcing bitcoin’s legitimacy as a mainstream financial asset.

If the Fed quietly keeps hitting the QE button, bitcoin might become the investment equivalent of a midnight convenience-store burrito — volatile but satisfying.

For investors willing to bet on the Fed’s recent move, opportunities are plentiful — particularly in places with tangible goods buried underfoot, such as the commodity-rich economies of Latin America and Brazil, an economic powerhouse that is enjoying a commodities-fueled bull run.

This year so far, for example, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ and the broader iShares Latin America 40 ETF ILF have each gained about 24%. These aren’t lucky guesses; they’re strategic positions leveraged to benefit from Fed-induced dollar weakness and rising commodity prices.

Brazil’s commodities are like beachfront property when a hurricane’s brewing offshore — a perfect location if you’re on solid ground and prepared for storm season.

The Fed’s stealth QE is the opening act in a larger financial drama. Gold is climbing, bitcoin’s gaining legitimacy and resource-rich economies like Brazil are poised to benefit. Central bankers typically have fewer tells than professional poker players, but right now they’re twitching. And quiet moves by central banks often precede loud market shifts.

Gold, bitcoin and Latin American markets have already enjoyed impressive returns, but the Federal Reserve’s discreet pivot back to quantitative easing suggests that these gains could accelerate.

While QE typically props up U.S. stocks, the stealth of this move — amid declining trust in fiat currencies and rising geopolitical tensions — uniquely positions gold, bitcoin and Latin America as prime shelters, and profitable opportunities, in a brewing financial storm.

Investors paying attention now — before the rest catch wind — stand the best chance of capturing these outsized returns. So pay attention.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Om, It looks like China could be the first big adopter of the air taxi concept. Being fully autonomous is a whole other aspect, but it's possible Asians will have less apprehension over the lack of a pilot (?) I sure wouldn't get in one, but maybe someday when all the technical bugs are worked out.

Autonomous air flight should theoretically be a lot safer than autonomous ground travel, since there are a lot fewer objects up there you can hit, and the flight computer's radar can detect and monitor everything for miles around. For ground travel, the only way to make it really safe would be to have all vehicles autonomous, and all hooked into the same computer network. That could work well, except if the central network system goes down or malfunctions, then there's a mega disaster. I guess that's for future generations to figure out, but there is plenty of activity in this area already, like Google's Self-Driving Car Project. Plenty of Orwellian overtones though -


Waymo LLC -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo




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[bigworld]

The Moody's downgrade seems to have negatively affected the markets for a few hours. Now the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Gold and Silver are all in positive territory. Perhaps that's due to the news that The Fed bought $44 Billion in Treasury paper last week, all over the yield curve. That's quantitative easing. Otherwise know as monetizing debt. Printing money. While $44 Billion doesn't sound like much when our Nation Debt will soon hit $40 Trillion, but at that rate the Fed would be monetizing $2.28 Trillion over the course of a year. And a few people still wonder why we have inflation.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-fed-quietly-buying-billions-112500917.html

[gfp927z]

Om, >> Core/Flex strategy <<

The conservative Core / Flex approach has been working well in recent years. Still a work in progress, but it sure beats the 'bad old days' of biotech :o)



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[ombowstring]

Stock futures slide after U.S. debt downgrade highlights deficit risk

Throw that Core/Flex strategy into the nearest trash can. The effects of the many aspects of the economic turmoil of recent days seem ready to make their appearance on the US and global stage.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/18/stock-futures-slide-after-us-debt-downgrade-highlights-deficit-risk-live-updates.html

[ombowstring]

China Clears Way For First Pilotless Flying Taxis

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202503/1331193.shtml

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1kpng3q/pilotless_planes_are_taking_flight_in_china_bank/

https://newatlas.com/aircraft/ehang-eh216s-evtol-commercial-flight-approval/

[gfp927z]

More slimy deals - >>> Eric Trump's Bitcoin Firm Goes Public Amid White House Crypto Expansion


MSN.com

by Gabe Whisnant

5-12-25


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/eric-trump-s-bitcoin-firm-goes-public-amid-white-house-crypto-expansion/ar-AA1EDZe4?ocid=BingHp01&cvid=ef4eb6674d0444e5fb5cb3e3ba89bc14&ei=81


Eric Trump, son of President Donald Trump, is taking his bitcoin mining company public through American Bitcoin's merger with Gryphon Digital Mining.

The merged entity will retain the American Bitcoin name and be managed by its current leadership, with plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ABTC."

Why It Matters

President Trump has increasingly aligned himself with the cryptocurrency sector, backing ventures such as the Trump-themed meme coin "TRUMP" and the NFT trading card series bearing his likeness. While Trump once dismissed Bitcoin as a scam, he has since shifted his stance, voicing support for crypto innovation and calling for a regulatory environment that encourages digital asset growth. He has also criticized federal agencies for what he describes as overreach.

In March, the president signed an executive order establishing a national Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, as well as a separate Digital Asset Stockpile. Like other commodity reserves, such as gold or petroleum, the currency will be held by the government as a financial safety net to hedge against future economic instability.

American Bitcoin will join Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) as publicly traded Trump-led companies. Its stock trades under the ticker symbol DJT.

American Bitcoin was founded earlier in the year in collaboration with Hut 8, whose CEO Asher Genoot also serves on American Bitcoin's board. Genoot highlighted that going public is a crucial move for accelerating business growth.

Following the announcement, Gryphon's shares surged 285 percent to $2 and have risen nearly 400 percent year-to-date.

Hut 8 shares gained 10 percent following the news but are still down 25 percent for the year.

In recent weeks, multiple corporations have unveiled new ventures or secured deals aimed at becoming entities that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. These initiatives offer investors indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency—without the need to purchase it themselves—an approach popularized by MicroStrategy in 2020. This model has since gained significant traction among retail traders.

What People Are Saying

Eric Trump emphasized the company's mission to establish a scalable and long-term value-creating bitcoin investment platform, "Our vision for American Bitcoin is to create the most investable Bitcoin accumulation platform in the market."

Allan Marshall, CEO of e-commerce platform Upexi said in an interview last week, "Buying a stock is a very familiar investment to way more people than buying crypto on a platform."

President Trump's March executive order read: "Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government's cryptocurrency holdings ... President Donald Trump is fulfilling his promise to position America as the global leader in cryptocurrency."

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro took Trump to task over his meme coin venture, saying on a recent podcast, "And then in April, that Trump meme coin announced that the top 220 holders of the meme coin would be invited to an intimate private dinner with President Trump at his golf club. This raises the question of influence peddling. If you basically buy a bunch of Trump meme coin and then funnel money to organizations associated with President Trump so you can have dinner with Trump. That doesn't look great."

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Off the charts Trump profiteering - >>> Trump's Middle East visit comes as his family deepens its business, crypto ties in the region


AP

by WILL WEISSERT

May 13, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-middle-east-visit-comes-020042172.html


WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s not just the “gesture” of a $400 million luxury plane that President Donald Trump says he’s smart to accept from Qatar. Or that he effectively auctioned off the first destination on his first major foreign trip, heading to Saudi Arabia because the kingdom was ready to make big investments in U.S. companies.

It’s not even that the Trump family has fast-growing business ties in the Middle East that run deep and offer the potential of vast profits.

Instead, it’s the idea that the combination of these things and more — deals that show the close ties between a family whose patriarch oversees the U.S. government and a region whose leaders are fond of currying favor through money and lavish gifts — could cause the United States to show preferential treatment to Middle Eastern leaders when it comes to American affairs of state.

Before Trump began his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, his sons Eric and Donald Jr. had already traveled the Middle East extensively in recent weeks. They were drumming up business for The Trump Organization, which they are running in their father's stead while he's in the White House.

Eric Trump announced plans for an 80-story Trump Tower in Dubai, the UAE’s largest city. He also attended a recent cryptocurrency conference there with Zach Witkoff, a founder of the Trump family crypto company, World Liberty Financial, and son of Trump's do-everything envoy to the Mideast, Steve Witkoff.

“We are proud to expand our presence in the region,” Eric Trump said last month in announcing that Trump Tower Dubai was set to start construction this fall.

The presidential visit to the region, as his children work the same part of the world for the family's moneymaking opportunities, puts a spotlight on Trump's willingness to embrace foreign dealmaking while in the White House, even in the face of growing concerns that doing so could tempt him to shape U.S. foreign policy in ways that benefit his family's bottom line.

Nowhere is the potential overlap more prevalent than in the Middle East

The Trump family's business interests in the region include a new deal to build a luxury golf resort in Qatar, partnering with Qatari Diar, a real estate company backed by that country's sovereign wealth fund. The family is also leasing its brand to two new real estate projects in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital, in partnership with Dar Global, a London-based luxury real estate developer and subsidiary of private Saudi real estate firm Al Arkan.

The Trump Organization has similarly partnered with Dar Global on a Trump Tower set to be built in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and an upcoming Trump International Hotel and luxury golf development in neighboring Oman.

During the crypto conference, a state-backed investment company in Abu Dhabi announced it had chosen USD, World Liberty Financial's stablecoin, to back a $2 billion investment in Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. Critics say that allows Trump family-aligned interests to essentially take a cut of each dollar invested.

“I don’t know anything about it,” Trump said when asked by reporters about the transaction on Wednesday.

Then there's the Saudi government-backed LIV Golf, which has forged close business relationships with the president and hosted tournaments at Trump’s Doral resort in South Florida.

“Given the extensive ties between LIV Golf and the PIF, or between Trump enterprises more generally and the Gulf, I’d say there’s a pretty glaring conflict of interest here," said Jon Hoffman, a research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the libertarian think tank the Cato Institute. He was referring to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which has invested heavily in everything from global sports giants to video game maker Nintendo with the aim of diversifying the kingdom’s economy beyond oil.

Trump said he did not talk about LIV Golf during his visit in Saudi Arabia.

The president announced in January a $20 billion investment for U.S. data centers promised by DAMAC Properties, an Emirati company led by billionaire Dubai developer Hussain Sajwani. Trump bills that as benefiting the country's technological and economic standing rather than his family business. But Sajwani was a close business partner of Trump and his family since long before the 2016 election.

White House bristles at conflict of interest concerns

Asked before he left for the Middle East if Trump might use the trip to meet with people tied to his family’s business, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was “ridiculous” to “suggest that President Trump is doing anything for his own benefit.”

“The president is abiding by all conflict of interest laws,” she said.

Administration officials have brushed off such concerns about the president's policy decisions bleeding into the business interests of his family by noting that Trump's assets are in a trust managed by his children. A voluntary ethics agreement released by The Trump Organization also bars the firm from striking deals directly with foreign governments.

But that same agreement still allows deals with private companies abroad. In Trump’s first term, the organization released an ethics pact prohibiting deals with both foreign governments and foreign companies.

The president, according to the second-term ethics agreement, isn't involved in any day-to-day decision-making for the family business. But his political and corporate brands remain inextricably linked.

“The president is a successful businessman,” Leavitt said, "and I think, frankly, that it’s one of the many reasons that people reelected him back to this office.”

Timothy P. Carney, senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said he doesn’t want to see U.S. foreign policy being affected by Trump’s feelings about how other countries have treated his family’s business.

“Even if he’s not running the company, he profits when the company does well,” Carney said. “When he leaves the White House, the company is worth more, his personal wealth goes up.”

Promises of US investment shaped Trump's trip

His family business aside, the president wasn't shy about saying he'd shape the itinerary of his first extended overseas trip on quid pro quo.

Trump's first stop was Saudi Arabia, just as during his first term. He picked the destination after he said the kingdom had pledged to spend $1 trillion on U.S. companies over four years. The White House has since announced that the actual figure is $600 billion. How much of that will actually be new investment — or come to fruition — remains to be seen.

The president is also headed to the UAE, which has pledged $1.4 trillion in U.S. investments over the next 10 years, and Boeing and GE Aerospace announced a $96 billion deal while he was in Qatar on Wednesday that will see that country's state-owned airline acquire up to 210 American-made Boeing aircraft.

Trump, meanwhile, says accepting the gift of a Boeing 747 from the ruling family is a no-brainer, dismissing security and ethical concerns raised by Democrats and even some conservatives.

Trump's Middle East business ties predate his presidencies

Trump's first commercial foray in the Middle East came in 2005, during just his second year of starring on “The Apprentice.” A Trump Tower Dubai project was envisioned as a tulip-shaped hotel to be perched on the city's manmade island shaped like a palm tree.

It never materialized.

Instead, February 2017 saw the announced opening of Trump International Golf Club Dubai, with Sajwani's DAMAC Properties. Just a month earlier, Trump had said that Sajwani had tried to make a $2 billion deal with him, “And I turned it down."

“I didn’t have to turn it down, because as you know, I have a no-conflict situation because I'm president,” Trump said then.

This January, there was a beaming Sajwani standing triumphantly by Trump's side at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, to announce DAMAC's investment in U.S. data centers.

“It’s been amazing news for me and my family when he was elected in November,” Sajwani said. “For the last four years, we’ve been waiting for this moment.”

<<<



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[gfp927z]

The ongoing 'gravity pull' of BRICS - >>> Colombia seeks to join China-based development bank as Latin America drifts away from Washington


ASSOCIATED PRESS

by JOSHUA GOODMAN

May 17, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/colombia-seeks-join-china-based-134115143.html


MIAMI (AP) — Colombia's government has applied to join a China-based development bank, another sign of Latin America's drift away from the U.S. as the Trump administration's foreign aid cuts, trade barriers and crackdown on immigration spurs many leaders in the region to seek closer ties with Washington's geopolitical rival.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro wrapped up a visit to China this week with a stop in Shanghai, where he met with former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the head of the New Development Bank.

The multilateral lender was set up a decade ago as a project of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — the so-called BRICS nations of major developing markets — as a counter to U.S.-dominated institutions like the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank.

To date, the New Development Bank has approved loans for 122 infrastructure projects totaling more than $40 billion in areas such as transport, sanitation and clean energy, according to Rousseff.

Petro, speaking to reporters in China on Saturday, said that Colombia is committed to purchasing $512 million worth of shares in the bank. He said that he was especially excited by the possibility of securing the New Development Bank's support for a 120-kilometer (75-mile) canal, or railway, connecting Colombia's Atlantic and Pacific Ocean coastlines that he said would position the country at the “heart” of trade between South America and Asia.

Colombia is the second Latin American country to try and join the bank after tiny Uruguay sought membership in 2021.

But Colombia's traditional role as a staunch U.S. ally and caretaker in the war on drugs is likely to raise eyebrows in Washington. The U.S. State Department this week said that it would “vigorously oppose” financing of projects linked to China's Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America. Petro signed up to the initiative during a summit with fellow leftist leaders from Brazil and China.

Petro, a former leftist guerrilla, said he wouldn't be dissuaded by U.S. pressure and reaffirmed that Colombia seeks to remain neutral in a new era of geopolitical wrangling.

“We made this decision freely,” Petro told reporters from Shanghai. “With the United States we can speak face to face, with China too.”

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> Moody's Credit downgrade <<

Yes, definitely a negative, athough not unexpected, and S+P and Fitch already downgraded the US debt in 2011 and 2023. But the recent stock rally was already in need of a pullback, so the Moody's downgrade could be the catalyst. It might be offset by positive news flow, more tariff deals, etc, but probably best to grab at least some of those juicy SVIX profits :o)

>> unwilling to cut any spending >>

Here are some of the features of the new tax bill (article below). Since politicians with an unlimited 'credit card' will never be able to control their spending, and we don't have the discipline of a gold standard, what we need is the 'Sequester', where any new spending has to be offset by cuts somewhere else in the budget. The US had the Sequester for a while, but as you said, some type of Balanced Budget Amendment is probably the only way to force politicians to stop chronic overspending.

Beyond the political aspects (politicians always overspending), because we have a debt based money system (where money is borrowed into existence, at interest), the money supply has to continually expand in order to pay the ever growing interest on the debt. But the expansion needs to be limited. Milton Freidman's idea was to have the US money supply controlled by a computer, programmed to expand the US money supply by 2% per year. Then combine that with a budget process that is also limited to a 2% annual expansion (a 2% Balanced Budget Amendment), and that would fix the problem. But good luck getting that in place. Instead, the whole system will eventually go broke, so investors need to be moving toward gold and hard assets.

____________________________


>>> What's in Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax bill, from MAGA accounts to SALT deductions


Yahoo Finance

by Ben Werschkul

May 17, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-in-trumps-big-beautiful-tax-bill-from-maga-accounts-to-salt-deductions-121553516.html


President Trump's tax plans have faced a bumpy road in recent days, with Republican leaders still aiming for a vote in the House of Representatives before Memorial Day even as trillion-dollar pieces of the bill remain up in the air.

A significant setback came on Friday when conservative Republicans joined with Democrats to deny the advancement of the bill during a House budget hearing. Leaders are promising to try again Sunday night with a 10 p.m. ET hearing.

It’s all part of a grinding process, with more tax amendments likely to address concerns about the level of state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Other pieces of the bill are also under close review, such as the size and shape of Medicaid trims being considered.

Yet the overall framework of the tax plan is getting clearer by the day, with a package slowly moving forward that will cost trillions of dollars and usher in an array of changes from how taxes are paid by households to new business world provisions.

There’s even a change to how you might save for your children, with a plan for so-called "MAGA accounts."

The plan also would raise the nation's debt ceiling by $4 trillion after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned America's borrowing authority is at the "warning track" and could be exhausted by August.

The goal for Speaker Mike Johnson — as he continues to face three groups of Republicans holding out over various issues — remains a full House vote before the looming recess, after which the bill will be sent to the Senate for further discussion (and surely many more changes).

"The tax bill from the House committee should be seen as an opening bid in what will be a grueling process," Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner said in a recent note, reminding that the final goal is for passage by this summer even as other analysts suggest it could end up being closer to December.

Here's some of the highlights from the tax piece of Trump's "big, beautiful bill."

Changes for individuals — from continuing lower rates to 'MAGA accounts'

The bill is centered around an extension of tax cuts for individuals contained in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by Trump during his first term as president.

The immediate effect would be a continuation of the status quo for taxpayers after that 2017 law lowered rates temporarily. If Congress doesn't act, those lower rates will expire and will go up to pre-2017 levels next year.

If the bill is passed, America's highest earners will see a continued top rate of 37%. That comes after Republicans debated — but have discarded for now — an idea to raise the rate on millionaires.

The bill also provides some new goodies for individuals.

It would fulfill signature Trump campaign promises to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and car loan interest. It also offers an expanded standard deduction for seniors after Trump promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits.

The no tax on tips and overtime provisions exclude "highly compensated employees" who fall above certain thresholds. The tips provisions were also recently revised to include gig economy workers, with Uber (UBER) CEO Dara Khosrowshahi saying he is "grateful" for the change.

Many of these provisions have also raised eyebrows as they are set to expire in 2029 just as Trump is scheduled to leave office. It’s just one of many changes that would be temporary.

One such change would increase the child tax credit to $2,500 from its current $2,000 level. Another provision includes a $1,000 bonus to the standard deduction, from $15,000 to $16,000 for single filers. Both expire in 2029 as well.

Other parts of the bill address things like estate and gift taxes as well as measures to broaden the reach of both health savings accounts and of 529 education savings accounts.

The bill also creates a new savings plan for children called "Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement."

The acronym — MAGA — is no accident.

The accounts could be jump-started for US citizens by a potential $1,000 contribution from the government and would then allow contributions of up to $5,000 annually from after-tax dollars.

It's an idea that some lawmakers — notably Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas — have been pushing for years.

But the utility of these accounts was immediately questioned with tax experts noting that contributions coming only from after-tax dollars and with apparently no ability to withdraw the money tax-free, will limit the benefits after the government's initial contribution.

Changes for the business world

The bill also includes a series of business-centered provisions, like new deductions for things like depreciation of property, interest expenses, and research and development costs.

The bill also makes permanent the 199A deduction at a new rate of 23%. That deduction — also known as the pass-through deduction — is focused on often smaller businesses organized as S corporations or partnerships.

The bill also has a few new wrinkles, such as allowing a 100% expensing deduction for new factories and updates to existing factories. This came late in the process in part after a White House push led by Treasury Secretary Bessent.

"These provisions offer the certainty and support small businesses and manufacturers need to invest in America," said House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith during a recent debate with the Business Roundtable, adding in a statement that the corporate provisions were a step toward a more competitive tax system for businesses.

The bill also includes a rollback of a variety of clean energy credits implemented during the Biden administration for things like solar panels and electric vehicles.

It's yet another potential tripping point in the months ahead, with some Republican senators wary of the cuts which benefit their home states and signaling that they might move to strip out those cost savings when the bill reaches their desks.

But the business side of the ledger is also notable for what is not included.

One tax change that had been hotly debated with Trump even throwing his weight behind the idea was to close the carried interest loophole.

But no changes to that tax provision — dubbed by some as the favorite tax break of hedge fund managers — were in the offing when the bill was released. Another Trump push for raising taxes on sports franchise owners did make it into the bill.

Likewise, changes to the corporate tax rate were often discussed on the campaign trail but are not included in the package. Trump often talked of lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% for US manufacturers, but no provisions to that effect are currently included.

Another piece of the bill — though technically in a separate Energy and Commerce committee portion — is also being watched by technology companies.

It says that no state "may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models, artificial intelligence systems, or automated decision systems" for a 10-year period if the bill is passed. It’s a potentially giant win for technology companies eager to minimize legal constraints.

Back in the tax portion of the bill, there are also provisions reflective of some of Trump's recent culture war clashes, with a new endowment tax for some universities and a tightening of whether undocumented workers can receive certain benefits, as well as a new 5% tax on remittances paid by non-citizens to foreign countries.

A still to be resolved: A giant price tag and a fight over SALT

It’s an overall package — clocking in at 1,116 pages — that clearly has a ways to go before becoming law. But one thing that is already clear is a giant price tag.

The tax pieces of the bill alone are set to cost over $3.8 trillion if enacted according to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. That's split between $7.7 trillion in tax cuts and $3.9 trillion in tax-specific offsets.

Once offsets elsewhere in the bill are included, the bill could lead to over $3.2 trillion in new red ink, according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

If many of the currently temporary cuts are extended, the costs could balloon to over $5.2 trillion over the next decade, the group found.

And that's before final negotiations could make things even more expensive, with blue state Republicans promising to sink the bill if the state and local tax (SALT) deduction isn't made more generous.

One proposal would raise the SALT cap to $62,000 for individuals and could cost the government more than almost all other major new Trump tax cuts combined, nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.

<<<



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[bigworld]

gfp: I may regret not selling SVIX yesterday close to $15. The Moody's Credit downgrade might tee off a sell off on Monday. That, and the Republicans in Congress being unwilling to cut any spending in the here and now. Total cowards. If they can't see the problems being created by continuing to run up the debt I don't know what it's going to take. In a snapshot the Treasury has to roll over 26% of its debt in the next 12 months. Those debt instruments currently have an average maturity of 5.5 years. And the average interest rate on that rolled over debt is going to go from about 3% to at least 4.5%. So our interest costs are going to be going up. Continuing to run $2 Trillion deficits is absolute lunacy. The entire budget needs to revert back to the pre-pandemic levels adjusted for inflation. Nothing should be off the table, not even defense spending. Not a single additional dime should be spent on any programs benefitting the illegal population other than giving them enough money to go back to where they came from. No SNAP cards, no medical care, no food stamps, no rent assistance...Nothing. Go back and get in line through official channels if you want to emigrate here. And we should severely limit incoming permanent immigration to a max of 100,000 a year for 10 years. Only accept the best of the best. Potential contributors. Not people who will be a net cost to the taxpayers for the next 50 years.

It's clear that Congress is forever going to be fiscal cowards so we need a Balanced Budget Amendment WITH TEETH now more than ever. Gold is going through a short term sell off but long term it's the only investment alternative I have any confidence in. If we can't control spending with a Republican Congress and Trump in office then it will never happen. Then see where the spending levels go if the Democrats regain control and some leftist like AOC becomes President. We'd sell our house and put 100% of the proceeds into Gold in Switzerland and go rent a place in Costa Rica, Panama or the Island of Roatan.

[ombowstring]

Those delusional guys who keep buying LWLG are holding on to the fantasy that their holdings are going to make them multimillionaires some day. Many of them hold at least 100,000 shares. The company has done basically nothing in twenty years. It's more like an expensive lab experiment. There was a recent Seeking Alpha article that got the hype training running. Then they hear all these vague promises and plans that the company is finally going to be a successful enterprise in 18-24 months. But the company itself admits that actual revenue is years away. And technologically they are being left behind by much bigger, much more well-capitalized companies - Nvidia, Ayar Labs, NLM Photonics, Ciena, Intel, Coherent, Lumentum, Broadcom, Cisco, and Fujitsu Optical, just to name a few - with far superior products. Lightwave has actually given up its plans to produce its own transceiver/modulator and their lone product is Perkamine, a polymer, a PLASTIC, that is added to transceivers that other companies manufacture that supposedly makes them faster and uses less power, but Lightwave's technology is actually obsolete. The company is a joke, a farce. The industry is moving away from, past the technology that Lightwave is trying to extend the life of. They have a one in a million, maybe one in a billion, chance, at best, of surviving as a company. This post is from a year and a half ago, but it's still the same old story -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173257120

This news from Archer is HUGE!!!! https://investors.archer.com/news/news-details/2025/Archer-Selected-as-the-Official-Air-Taxi-Provider-of-the-LA28-Olympic-and-Paralympic-Games-and-Team-USA-in-Exclusive-Deal/default.aspx .The exposure they will get from providing these services is OFF THE CHARTS. ACHR will eventually be a $100 stock and, I think, much higher. I've been waiting for a pullback to buy more, but I'm starting to wonder if that pullback is ever going to come. Once the effects of these on again, off again tariffs, these ruined trade relationships, and a probable recession, are made manifest, I think the overall market is going to experience a significant downturn and at some point after that, it will be judicious to buy, buy, buy, ACHR, JOBY, and NVDA, my three favorite stocks at this time.

[gfp927z]

Om, >> LWLG <<

The quarterly 10-Q was filed last Tuesday, but they had a webcast of the Annual Shareholder's Meeting yesterday, so something promising must have been said there. Looking at the daily charts, it started taking off ~ 11 AM yesterday (the SHM was at 10 AM), and then took off more today. I don't really follow the stock, but will be interested to see if there is some follow through next week. There is a large 16% short position (as of Apr 30), so maybe some short covering added to the bounce.

LWLG seems like the classic 'story' stock, or perpetual startup, with ultra cool science that never seems to produce revenues. While Archer and Joby have some of those characteristics (ultra cool science), they are racking up orders and have been signing up partners galore. Btw, I watched a video yesterday that compared their business models, and it sounds like Joby ideally wants to run most of the operation themselves, while Archer has partners to run much of the actual heliport functions, etc. That sounds preferable business-wise (Archer), and a quicker way to get the ball rolling and capture the market. The airline partners can also subsidize the service and make it cheaper, since offering an air taxi service will allow them to capture more of the lucrative business traveller market.

On the other hand, the Joby approach will cost more, take more time to roll out, but ultimately they'll have more control over all aspects, including safety. So that appraoch has its merits, since In the aero-taxi business, all it takes is one crash and that can poison the well for the entire industry.

One bit of investing advice my dad (a pilot) gave me years ago was to not invest in the airline industry. Warren Buffett had a similar rule, although he actually broke the rule by owning a bunch of airline stock when Covid appeared, producing huge losses.

With Joby / Archer, the safety side will be a key, since an accident or two (which are inevitable), and companies will not allow their execs to use the service, and the general public will stay away too. Anyway, as great and exciting as Archer and Joby look, I would keep positions on the moderate side just in case :o)



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[ombowstring]

I think the ASM started yesterday so the boys are probably all hyped-up over vaporous rumors. Also, there was a new hire, but nothing substantial has occurred as far as I know.

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Thanks. Your strategy with SVIX makes sense, and the entry point for UVXY (19) also makes sense, since that was its previous low in March.

Btw, looking at Acurx, logic says that something will be happening soon. Either another unfavorable money raise to buy a few more months of time, or an announcement that the company is being sold. The idea of a partnership to run the Phase 3 no longer makes much sense, since that pharma could presumbaly just buy the whole company for less than it costs to run the first Phase 3. Ibeza seems very promising, and C-Dif is a sizable market, so it's hard to imagine there would be no pharma interest out there. Either way, the cash level is nearing zero (again), and the ATM funding route is presumably off the table, so 'something has to give' soon..

The recent video that Luci and management produced seemed really odd, especially if they we about to do a desperation sale of the company. I don't get it, and the Bitcoin blunder back in Nov was another head scratcher.

---



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[bigworld]

gfp: I put some sell orders in place for SVIX. I laddered the sales in increments starting at $15.50 and going up from there. Normally I would probably sell now because I sense that the buying is running out of gas. But what keeps me in is that who knows what Trade deals Trump might announce in the coming weeks. I think it's that possibility that is holding off a sell off, at least for now. But I figure more more leg up in the markets due to news headlines and I'm getting out of SVIX. Then I'd be looking at $19.00 on UVXY to start building a sizable position in that one.

[gfp927z]

Om, A nice pop for LWLG today. I noticed it was creeping up the last few weeks, so something must have happened. They just released Q1 earnings, so there must have been some good news from the conference call (?) Their I-Hub board is almost worthless, just hundreds of breathless posts, a veritable orgy of enthusiam, backslapping, etc. Any idea what happened to generate the big move? Thanks. Maybe some actual revenues finally on the horizon?



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Thanks for the stock ideas :o)

For the individual stock side, I've been concentrating on LT buy / hold type stocks. While much of the Energy sector seems too volatile, the pipelines, royalty plays, and possibly nuclear seem like they could fit the 'buy / hold' requirement.

Just curious if you are hanging with the full SVIX position? The S+P 500 is approaching 6000, but no sign of trouble yet, although the RSI (69.6) is approaching overbought (70), and the Nasdaq is already there (70.7). I also use the Chande indicator, but both the S+P 500 and Nasdaq have only barely gotten into the green zone, so no red flags there yet. It looks like for the S+P 500, the 6000 level could be 'in the bag', and then the question is does it continue to run up to the Feb high (~ 6150) before a pullback / consolidation occurs? As you said, with more tariff deals likely coming in the next several weeks, the mood could remain buoyant, so we'll see what happens.

Fwiw, I'm still sitting at 12% for the stock allocation, though it's actually crept up to 13% (yikes) with the recent gains. Not that I'm superstitious, but may take some profits on the remaining Flex side before too long.

The metals needed a pullback, especially gold, so this looks like a healthy consolidation, and maybe some buying opportunities in the miners. Just curious to get your current favorites in the gold and silver miners, and mining in general? Thanks :o)



---

[bigworld]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-just-sold-2-etfs-111800384.html

[ombowstring]

Archer Aviation - Archer Selected as the Official Air Taxi Provider of the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USA in Exclusive Deal

https://investors.archer.com/news/news-details/2025/Archer-Selected-as-the-Official-Air-Taxi-Provider-of-the-LA28-Olympic-and-Paralympic-Games-and-Team-USA-in-Exclusive-Deal/default.aspx

May 15, 2025

Archer’s Midnight eVTOL Aircraft Will Seek to Integrate Across the LA28 Games through Transporting VIPs, Fans, & Stakeholders, While Electrifying Vertiport Take-off-and-Landing Hubs for Key Venues

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Today, Archer (NYSE: ACHR) announced that it has been selected as the Official Air Taxi Provider of the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USA. Through this exclusive partnership, the two will look to integrate Archer’s Midnight eVTOL aircraft across the LA28 Games in a variety of ways, such as transporting VIPs, fans, and stakeholders, while electrifying vertiport take-off-and-landing hubs for key venues and providing support for emergency services and security.

Archer and LA28 will introduce the company’s Midnight eVTOL aircraft to Los Angeles, which is expected to host over 15 million visitors and broadcast to billions of viewers globally over the course of the Games. The partnership includes support for Team USA through LA28.

Midnight is Archer’s piloted electric air taxi designed to carry up to four passengers while producing less noise and emissions than a traditional helicopter. The eVTOL aircraft is built with redundant, fault-tolerant systems, including 12 total engines and propellers, allowing Archer to target certification with the FAA at similar levels of safety as commercial airliners. Midnight is made in America at Archer’s manufacturing facilities in San Jose, CA and Covington, GA.

Whether a Los Angeles resident or a visitor, Archer’s goal is for passengers to be able to go to a vertiport take-off-and-landing hub near a key venue and then fly 10-20 minutes in Midnight to their destination of choice within Archer’s LA network, a valuable option as Games spectators and participants move throughout the city.

Archer’s planned network in LA includes vertiports at key venues that are central to the LA28 Games, including the Stadium in Inglewood and the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Additionally, the network is planned to include critical visitor hubs, including Los Angeles International Airport, Hollywood, Orange County, and Santa Monica.

“We want to transform the way people get around Los Angeles and leave a legacy that shapes the future of transportation in America. There’s no better time to do that than during the LA28 Games,” said Adam Goldstein, CEO and founder of Archer Aviation. “I can’t wait to see Midnight flying passengers over Los Angeles, emblazoned with the Team USA logo and the Olympic Rings and Paralympic Agitos.”

“At LA28, we're building a platform for constant innovation and creativity, which is why we've partnered with forward-thinking companies like Archer,” said LA28 Chairperson and President Casey Wasserman. “Our vision is to fundamentally reimagine the Olympic and Paralympic Games experience, and this partnership represents an incredible opportunity to deliver something unprecedented, showcasing the very best of what Los Angeles has to offer on the world stage.”

The agreement also includes access to storytelling throughout NBCUniversal’s 2026 and 2028 Olympic Games coverage, including moments like the 2028 Opening and Closing Ceremonies in Los Angeles.

[bigworld]

gfp: I lightened up on oil plays at some point last year for underperformance. But I still own XLE as a core holding, and I kept XOM. But at this point I bet my oil plays are 2% of my holdings. I have bigger positions in the nat gas pipeline plays (ENB, KMI, WMB and I still have ET in an IRA (I would never carry a MLP in a taxable account, too many filing headaches.) The pipelines make money no matter what the price of natural gas is. And they pay a nice dividend. I like Enbridge the best. Reliable dividend, I think the yield is bout 6%. And the share price has almost doubled since 2022

[bigworld]

gfp: On the nuclear side of my energy holding is have CCJ which I bought in January of 2022 with new Roth IRA money. It's down some from its highs. But I'm still above a 2X return. I almost never look at it. It's a core holding that I'll keep come hell or high water. I don't like to trade excessively. Except with my gambling portion of my portfolio the money I've been using for my SVIX and UVXY alternative trades. I also have 2 Uranium ETFs, URA (global) and the Sprott Uranium Miners fund (URNM). I don't trade them either. I haven't looked at the numbers lately because these are held in 6 different accounts. We have 2 ROTH IRAs, 2 Conventional IRAs where I ruled my 401K money into, one trading account with Wells Fargo and one with Schwab. But at one time I had about 5% of our portfolio in Uranium plays. I don't follow Centrus.

[ombowstring]

That does it for me. The only question is when to add to my position. I still think that there may be a significant downturn in the overall markets before an upward trajectory is resumed and I wouldn't want to buy now if I can buy more shares at a cheaper price sometime later this year (or next). There's a great deal of uncertainty about how these trade deals are going to shake out, or even if they are going to be satisfactorily resolved, and the possibility of a recession, so I just don't think the time is right to buy now. I've talked to people who park cars at the lots used by tourists to go to Nantucket and who work at shops on Main St. and I know that there is a considerable drop-off in the number of people who are coming to visit the Cape this year, which is indicative of a slowing economy, reduced consumer spending, and a likely reduction of corporate profits and subsequent valuations of stocks.

[gfp927z]

Well that was a short pullback for the market, a 'blink and you missed it' type pause, and it's off to the races again (?) The chart setup is now looking like the S+P 500 moves up to 6000 in the near term, without a prior pullback / consolidation.

On the energy topic, it looks like peace could be breaking out with Iran, so oil prices remain weak due to oversupply. I guess the safest way to play the Energy / oil sector would be via pipelines (ENB, TRP) and royalty plays like TPL, plus maybe the Refiner stocks (VLO, PSX, MPC). These could at least qualify as LT investments, vrs the exploration type stocks which would merely be trades.


>>> Oil prices tumble as Trump hints US near nuclear deal with Iran


Yahoo Finance

by Ines Ferré

May 15, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-tumble-as-trump-hints-us-near-nuclear-deal-with-iran-151423549.html


Oil prices slid more than 3% before paring losses on Thursday after President Trump hinted that the US is nearing a nuclear deal with Iran — a move that could increase global crude supply.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures fell to just above $61 per barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, dropped to around $64.40.

"We'll see what happens," Trump said during a visit to Doha, Qatar. "But we're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace. And if we do that, it'll be fantastic."

A senior Iranian official told NBC News this week that Iran would agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and meet other terms of the deal — if all economic sanctions were lifted immediately.

CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin isn't convinced an agreement will go through so easily. But if it does, she estimates the oil supply could increase by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day.

"They [Iran] have really gotten quite good at skirting sanctions, so most don't expect a massive flood hitting the market if sanctions are lifted," Babin told Yahoo Finance on Thursday.

Iran, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.

Oil prices are down more than 12% year to date after tumbling in April following President Trump's announcement of new tariff policies and an OPEC+ decision to raise production starting in May. The oil cartel later agreed to further increase output in June.

"If we add in OPEC+'s additional oil production coming in the next few months, global crude supply and demand dynamics could shift toward oversupply," BOK Financial senior vice president Dennis Kissler said on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs analysts warned of downside risks to oil prices if OPEC+ proceeds with its planned output hikes — or adds more in July.

"We expect strong supply growth outside of U.S. shale to further pressure prices and U.S. shale production," Goldman Sachs' Daan Struyven and his team wrote in a Sunday night note.

The analysts forecast Brent to edge down to average $60 in the rest of 2025, with WTI averaging $56.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, In that recent Mike Oliver interview, in addition to the gold, silver, and mining sectors, he also discussed the energy / oil sector and what his momentum signals may be suggesting (link below, toward the end of the interview). He said it's still early, but the recent drop of the WTI oil price into the 50s was possibly a 'bear trap low' which was an overreaction to the current oversupply concerns ('drill baby drill', etc). He said if the WTI oil price gets back over 65 for a week or so, the 'broken support' assumption will be negated, and the oil price might be set up for an extended rebound.

Anyway, in looking for undervalued and out of favor sectors, it's possible that energy / oil has put in its lows. Still early, but I've been thinking about getting a few modest energy plays. I recently got a little Chevron and OXY (Buffet holdings), but am curious what you like in the sector?

One LT buy / hold energy stock I'm looking at is Texas Pacific Land (TPL), although that is more of a royalty type play, and also has a water angle. If Oliver is right about the bottom being in for oil, then maybe the broad Energy ETF (XLE) might be a good vehicle, or maybe an Oil Exploration ETF (IEO). Thanks for any ideas :o)


The You Tube video won't post, but here is the title of the video -

'2-Year Bear Market Begins? S&P Breakdown to Ignite Gold’s Biggest Breakout I Michael Oliver'



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Just curious about your current energy holdings, including the nuclear side? Thanks. I remember you have some Cameco (CCJ). In addition to BWX Technologies (BWXT), I've been looking at Centrus Energy (LEU) -


>>> Centrus Energy Corp. (formerly USEC Inc.) is an American company that supplies nuclear fuel for use in nuclear power plants and works to develop and deploy centrifuge technology to produce enriched uranium for commercial and government uses, including for national security.

In 2019, Centrus began work under a contract with the U.S. Department of Energy to build a cascade of 16 centrifuges in Piketon, Ohio to demonstrate production of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium, or HALEU.[3] HALEU is required for many next generation reactor designs, including nine of the ten reactor designs selected under the Energy Department's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program.[4]

In June 2021, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a license amendment request for Centrus to enrich uranium up to a Uranium-235 concentration of 20 percent, making it the first U.S. facility licensed for HALEU production. This is higher than the 5 percent level found in Low-Enriched Uranium that is used in existing light-water reactors.[3] <<<


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrus_Energy

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>>> BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Government Operations and Commercial Operations. The company designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors, and nuclear fuel; close-tolerance and high-quality equipment for nuclear applications; critical nuclear components, fuels and assemblies for government and limited other uses; down blend government stockpiles of uranium; and fabricate fuel-bearing precision components. It also supplies proprietary and sole-source valves, manifolds, and fittings to naval and commercial shipping customers; research reactor fuel elements for colleges, universities, and national laboratories; and components for defense applications. In addition, the company designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers, tooling delivery systems; and other auxiliary equipment, including containers for the storage of nuclear fuel and other high-level nuclear waste. Further, it supplies nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, tooling delivery systems, nuclear-grade materials and precisely machined components; and manufactures medical radioisotopes, radiopharmaceuticals, and medical devices. Additionally, it provides specialized engineering services that include structural component design, 3-D thermal-hydraulic engineering analysis, weld and robotic process development, electrical and controls engineering and metallurgy and materials engineering; in-plant inspection, maintenance and modification services; and non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions. The company was formerly known as The Babcock & Wilcox Company and changed its name to BWX Technologies, Inc. in June 2015. BWX Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia. <<<


https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BWXT/profile/



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>>> The Best eVTOL Stock to Invest $2,000 in Right Now


Motley Fool

by Leo Sun

Feb 2025


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-best-evtol-stock-to-invest-2-000-in-right-now/ar-AA1xJ0i4


Several developers of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft went public by merging with special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in 2021. At the time, many investors were dazzled by these companies' partnerships and rosy long-term expectations, even though they hadn't delivered any commercial aircraft yet.

The bulls believed these drone-like eVTOL aircraft would replace traditional helicopters because they were cheaper, greener, quieter, and easier to land in urban areas. The U.S. Air Force, major airlines, automakers, and ride-sharing companies all plan to use these aircraft as air taxis. From 2023 to 2030, Markets and Markets estimates the eVTOL market could expand at a stunning compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52%.

But today, all of those SPAC-backed eVTOL stocks trade far below their all-time highs. The market's enthusiasm fizzled out as these companies struggled with delays, missed their own delivery estimates, and racked up steep losses. Rising interest rates also curbed the market's appetite for speculative pre-revenue companies.

However, as the macro environment warms up and interest rates decline, investors might want to revisit the nascent eVTOL sector. I believe one of those leading stocks -- Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) -- has the potential to turn a modest $2,000 investment into tens of thousands of dollars over the next decade.

What sets Archer Aviation apart from the competition?

Archer's Midnight eVTOL aircraft can travel up to 100 miles at 150 miles per hour on a single charge. It can carry a single pilot and four passengers. Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) and EHang are developing similar eVTOL aircraft, but Archer has signed a wider range of deals than most of its industry peers.

In 2021, United Airlines placed a $1 billion order for 200 of its Midnight aircraft. In 2022, it put down a $10 million deposit for those first 100 aircraft. In 2023, automaker Stellantis made a big investment in Archer and selected it as the exclusive contract manufacturer for its own eVTOL aircraft.

Archer has also been working for the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) since 2021, and it expanded that partnership with additional contracts worth up to $142 million in 2023. It delivered its first aircraft to the U.S. Air Force last August.

Last November, Soracle -- a new joint venture formed by Japan Airlines and Sumimoto -- placed a $500 million order for 100 Midnight aircraft.

All of these budding deals could help Archer Aviation outlast many of its smaller competitors.

But why is Archer the best eVTOL stock to buy?

Archer's closest competitor, Joby Aviation, is also making plenty of progress. It attracted big investments from Toyota and Delta, it holds a long-term contract with the DOD, and it delivered its first aircraft to the U.S. Air Force in September 2023. However, four things arguably make Archer a better buy than Joby.

First, Archer has a clearer roadmap for its long-term growth. It believes it can ramp up its annual production to 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028. It also plans to establish dedicated eVTOL air taxi routes over the next few years. Joby hasn't provided such specific production targets yet.

Second, Archer is expected to grow at a faster rate than Joby. By 2026, analysts expect Archer and Joby to generate $185 million and $98 million in revenues, respectively. We should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but Archer's growing list of partnerships and its support from Stellantis -- which has already invested hundreds of millions of dollars into the company -- could help it achieve that growth trajectory.

Third, Archer looks cheaper than Joby. With an enterprise value of $3.5 billion, it's valued at 19 times its projected sales for 2026. Joby, which has an enterprise value of $5.9 billion, trades at a whopping 60 times its projected sales for 2026. It doesn't make much sense for the slower-growing company to be trading at a higher valuation.

Lastly, Archer's insiders are net buyers, and Joby's insiders are net sellers. Over the past 12 months, Archer's insiders bought 12 times as many shares as they sold, but Joby's insiders sold nearly twice as many shares as they bought. That warmer insider sentiment suggests that Archer has more upside potential than Joby.

Archer Aviation will likely remain a volatile stock over the next few years. But if it achieves its ambitious expansion plans, it could soar a lot higher over the next few years as fleets of eVTOL air taxis take to the skies.

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your new commute -

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bZajjIj38dM

https://www.airev.aero/

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I'm still concerned about a significant drop in the stock market although I have no idea what might cause it, but ACHR, NVDA, & JOBY look like winners under normal circumstances.

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Bigworld, For the S+P 500, it's about 2% away from the 6000 level, so that might be a near term target. I doubt it gets all the way to a new high (6145 area) prior to having some kind of pullback / consolidation, but you never know. The Nasdaq is now officially overbought (RSI - 70.6), although the S+P 500 is not quite (RSI - 67).

News flow 'should' continue positive, but chart-wise the main indices really need a pullback soon. So I'm figuring the S+P 500 may reach 6000, and then a pullback to re-test the 200 MA. It also left a big gap to be filled just above the 200 MA, although the 'filling the gap' idea isn't always valid in the near term. There was also a big gap back in April that still hasn't been filled.

Nice going with the SVIX trade. Along with the earlier UVXY payday, you've been really cleaning up :o)



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[bigworld]

gfp: I am also looking at 16 on the VIX as a point that I'd sell SVIX. The buying in the market is pretty limited to the Mag 7 right now. The Dow and S&P are taking a breather. But there is no real selling pressure. So I think a few more trade deal announcements should extend this rally in the short term. A $15.50 price in SVIX would net me about $50 K. I'd be satisfied with that return. Holding after that is too much risk for too little upside. When the VIX is up near 40 on those periodic sell offs then buying SVIX is almost risk free if you have the stomach for it. The VIX will always retreat at some point.

[gfp927z]

>>> Nvidia stock extends gains as Saudi Arabia set to spend billions on AI chips, US moves to rescind Biden's chip curbs


Yahoo Finance

by Laura Bratton

May 14, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-stock-extends-gains-as-saudi-arabia-set-to-spend-billions-on-ai-chips-us-moves-to-rescind-bidens-chip-curbs-132859592.html


Nvidia (NVDA) stock jumped 3.6% early Wednesday, extending its gain from the prior day, when shares rose nearly 6% and the AI chipmaker’s market cap surpassed $3 trillion for the first time since February.

The gains come as US chipmakers, including Nvidia, announced billions of dollars' worth of deals with Saudi Arabia during an investment forum attended by President Trump on Tuesday.

Nvidia said it will supply several hundred thousand of its AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s AI venture Humain over the next five years, beginning with the sale of one of its latest Grace Blackwell AI supercomputers using 18,000 of its advanced GB300 chips. Humain is a new AI venture owned by Saudi Arabia’s $925 billion Public Investment Fund and chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It was launched just a day ahead of Trump’s visit to the country.

Bank of America (BAC) analysts estimated the total value of the deal at $7 billion and raised its price target on Nvidia stock to $160 from $150 in a note to investors Wednesday morning.

Also bolstering Nvidia shares, a report from Bloomberg on Tuesday indicated the Trump administration may cut a deal to allow the United Arab Emirates to purchase "more than a million" of Nvidia's AI chips.

Fellow US chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) also unveiled deals to supply chips to Humain for its ambitious AI data center plans over the coming years. AMD’s deal was valued at $10 billion.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said the news is a good sign of demand for AI hardware.

“For investors worried about AI capex sustainability, we now have another deep pocketed customer willing and capable to spend large amounts of money on a clearly strategic push as Saudi Arabia attempts to position itself as a regional and global AI hub,” he wrote in a note to investors early Wednesday.

“While we shall see how much of the announced programs actually come to pass, Tuesday’s actions have the potential to act as support against fears of a capex peak.”

Investors have scrutinized whether US Big Tech companies can sustain unprecedented levels of spending on AI infrastructure while companies are still figuring out how to fully monetize their AI products.

Separately, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), a server maker that uses Nvidia’s AI chips and server designs, announced a $20 billion deal with Saudi Arabian data center company DataVolt. That stock, which closely tracks with Nvidia’s moves, rose 16% on Tuesday and another 18% in early trading Wednesday.

The news came as Saudi Arabia and President Trump touted a $600 billion deal for the kingdom and companies based there to purchase US technology, weapons, and infrastructure. But so far, the investments unveiled Tuesday total much less than $600 billion.

Nvidia stock’s jump on Wednesday helped inch shares closer toward positive territory for 2025 after a rocky several months. Shares were down 3% year to date at Tuesday’s close.

The AI chipmaker’s Saudi Arabia deal helped brighten Wall Street’s outlook for the company's sales abroad just after Trump banned exports of its chips for China. However, his administration looked to ease Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia’s exports to the rest of the world (including the Middle East).

The Department of Commerce on Tuesday announced that it had initiated the rescission of Biden’s so-called AI diffusion rule, which was meant to halt the smuggling of US AI chips, namely Nvidia’s, to China.

The department also said that “using Huawei Ascend chips anywhere in the world violates US export controls.” Huawei’s latest Ascend chips are reportedly competitive with Nvidia’s prior-generation Hopper chips.

Bernstein’s Rasgon said, “Huawei chips are not made in the US nor exported from there, and (purportedly at least) are manufactured without using US technology (so it is not clear how customers using them would be in violation of US export restrictions).”

“Nevertheless, such an interpretation of the rules would clearly make it more difficult for Huawei to sell Ascend chips to customers outside of China, as well as seemingly open up Chinese users of the parts to more of the US’s regulatory hammers,” he added. “This is probably a positive for NVDA and other US AI names, though it remains to be seen how China might respond.”

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>>> Why Archer Aviation Stock Is Skyrocketing Today


by Johnny Rice

Motley Fool

May 13, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-archer-aviation-stock-skyrocketing-182733929.html


Key Points

Archer Aviation released its Q1 earnings, revealing a solid balance sheet.

The company is on track to launch in the UAE later this year.

Archer announced a partnership with the artificial intelligence (AI)-powered data analytics company Palantir.


Shares of Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) are surging on Tuesday. The company's stock gained 22.7% as of 2:11 p.m. ET and was up as much as 26.7% earlier in the day. The jump comes as the S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6%.

The company, which develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, reported its Q1 2025 numbers and announced an exciting new partnership.

The company is pre-revenue, but it reported a reasonable net loss of $93.4 million for the quarter. With more than $1 billion in cash and equivalents on hand, the company has plenty of room to run and has one of the strongest balance sheets in the emerging industry.

Archer is on track to launch in the UAE later this year, a major milestone for the company as it begins to commercialize its business. The company also has customer commitments from established airlines and specific plans for a NYC air taxi network using its aircraft. CEO Adam Goldstein emphasized the company's momentum in his statement: "This quarter, the team made strong progress across our civil and defense efforts as we continue to deepen our strategic partner relationships and prepare for commercialization in the UAE later this year."

Palantir partnership

Archer also announced a "foundational partnership" with the AI-powered data analytics company Palantir Technologies to help it optimize its technology. This could give the company an edge over the competition, speeding up its development timelines and boosting efficiencies and its bottom line.

With a market capitalization of more than $6 billion, Archer is not cheap. However, I think there is a significant opportunity for the industry that will justify this over time. For risk-tolerant investors, Archer is a good choice, but expect some turbulence on the way up -- pun intended.

<<<



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Why Nvidia is the tech winner of the US-China tariff truce

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nvidia-is-the-tech-winner-of-the-us-china-tariff-truce-212959589.html

If you closed your eyes for a little over a month, you might have missed the bear market.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) has nearly wiped out all of its losses so far this year as markets rebound on a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China that dropped duties by 115 percentage points.

While tech stocks are rallying across the board, Wedbush analyst and tech stock watcher Dan Ives sees one clear winner in the easing of trade tensions.

“It would have to be Nvidia,” Ives told Yahoo Finance in an interview just before the chipmaker's market capitalization broke above $3 trillion for the first time since February. According to Ives, the broader tariff relief rally in tech, coupled with an artificial intelligence investment cycle that remains intact, creates a "dream scenario" for the AI chip leader.

Nvidia stock (NVDA) surged over 5% on Monday following the US-China deal and by as much on Tuesday, though shares are still down 3% year to date.

“I think [the stock] makes ... new all-time highs because there's only one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and that's led by [the] godfather of AI, Jensen, and Nvidia,” Ives said.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is currently in Saudi Arabia alongside dozens of tech executives for a dealmaking bonanza led by President Trump as part of his first major foreign trip in his second term.

The lift in Nvidia stock can be partly explained by the US granting Saudi Arabia more access to advanced AI chips, buoying the Gulf nation’s ability to purchase high-powered semiconductors. On Tuesday, Nvidia announced it will ship 18,000 chips to an AI startup owned by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

One potential concern with selling cutting-edge chips to Saudi Arabia is that those chips could then be smuggled to China, bypassing US export controls. The Trump administration tightened some restrictions targeted at China, but it's also looking to overhaul regulations on AI chip curbs.

Brian McCarthy, chief strategist at MacroLens, argued that curbs on chip exports to China are tough to enforce.

“It's just very, very hard to put a net around this stuff,” said McCarthy, adding, "The Chinese are very diligent. They have a very good network of ways to move products underground … for all kinds of products.”

National security issues notwithstanding, if China can use indirect chip purchases to work around export controls, that could be a boon for Nvidia shareholders.

“It shows it's not just about China,” Ives said. “This just shows what I believe is going to be happening over the coming years — the trillions being spent on AI.”

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Btw, I lightened up on the stock allocation again today, down to 12% from 15%. Some nice gains, so what the heck :o) The Flex side (S+P 500) is down to only ~ 2 1/2%, but I figure we'll see a pullback to re-test the 200 MAs before too long.

The S+P 500 and Nasdaq aren't quite to overbought yet (RSI 70), but getting close. I can't see the indices getting back to the all time highs without a pullback / consolidation first. Who knows, anything can happen, but as my dad used to say - 'No one ever went broke by taking a profit' :o)



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Highwayman -

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Looking at the Vix chart, the really big spikes are fairly infrequent, with only 3 over the last 5 years (below). In between these mega spikes are numerous smaller ones.

1 - Feb-Mar 2020 (Covid crash)
2 - Aug 2024
3 - April 2025

Looking at the bottoms, over time they tend to be like a wave. When the broader stock market is in a long uptrend, the VIX bottoms will occur at progressively higher levels, and then will gradually become lower when the stock market is in an extended downtrend. We've had two of these 'waves' since the 2020 spike, with the Vix bottoms reflecting the broader stock market.

In addition to the Vix chart 'waves' to indicate the likely bottoms, several indicators appear fairly accurate in signaling both the tops and bottoms for the Vix --> the RSI and the Chande Trend Meter. These combined with the chart level and its shape (waves) should work reasonably well.

Right now the $Vix is down to 18, so should be getting fairly close to a bottom, based on the above criteria. It appears 15-16 could be the likely target area to watch. The RSI is currently 37.22 and falling, and if it gets to 30-32, then we might be close to the bottom. Just a 'guesstimate' though. You seem to have a good feel for it, so TIA for any insights :o)



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Lively Up Yourself

[ombowstring]

That skit's funny. It's true that people who both speak English sometimes can't understand each other. There are a lot of Jamaicans on Cape Cod, as well as many other places across the US, but some of them speak with such a strong accent, I really don't understand what they've said. Most of the ones I converse with have been here for years so I figure they've gotten their green cards.

I can usually tell if someone's from Boston. An exaggerated example of Boston speak is to make sure you use your blinkah when making a turn in your cah.

Over recent years, maybe the last 10 or 15 or so, regular tourists and people getting their summer homes ready for the season start arriving in mid-April and their numbers usually pick up all the way through Memorial Day. This year that hasn't been the case. From Memorial Day weekend on the Cape is bonkers with people until about two weeks before Labor Day when people start returning home to get their kids ready for school or when students leave to get ready for the upcoming school year or people go back from their summer vacations to get ready for work. Tourists still come here in considerable numbers through Columbus Day weekend because the fall season here weather-wise is just outstanding.

But I think it's going to be a down tourist season overall this year. Many Canadians have stated that they won't be making their annual visits to the US in reaction to Trump's bluster. And I think a lot of Americans are concerned about the economy and their personal financial situations so it looks like this year Cape Codders will be able to enjoy the area more to ourselves than usual.