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>>> Here’s a much better fix for America’s deficit than a weak dollar and trade wars
Trump’s plan to weaken the U.S. dollar is misguided. Instead, Congress should pass more responsible tax and spending bills.
MarketWatch
by Kenneth Rogoff
May 7, 2025
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-a-much-better-way-to-fix-americas-deficit-than-tariffs-and-trade-wars-115b99f4?mod=article_inline
What should be a focus on domestic politics and congressional negotiations has been lost in the spotlight on foreign trade.
Now that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war is in full swing, investors around the world are asking: What’s next on his agenda for upending the global economic order? Many are turning their attention to the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord — a plan proposed by Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, to coordinate with America’s trading partners to weaken the U.S. dollar.
At the heart of the plan is the notion that the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is not a privilege but a costly burden that has played a major role in the deindustrialization of the American economy. The global demand for dollars, the argument goes, drives up its value, making U.S.-made goods more expensive than imports. That, in turn, leads to persistent trade deficits and incentivizes U.S. manufacturers to move production overseas, taking jobs with them.
Is there any truth to this narrative? The answer is both yes and no. It’s certainly plausible that foreign investors eager to hold U.S. stocks, bonds, and real estate could generate a steady flow of capital into the United States, fueling domestic consumption and boosting demand for both tradable goods like cars and nontradables such as real estate and restaurants. Higher demand for nontradable goods, in particular, tends to push up the dollar’s value, making imports more attractive to American consumers, just as Miran suggests.
But this logic also overlooks crucial details. While the dollar’s reserve-currency status drives up demand for Treasurys, it does not necessarily increase demand for all U.S. assets. Asian central banks, for example, hold trillions of dollars in Treasurys, which they use to help stabilize their exchange rates and maintain a financial buffer in the event of a crisis. They generally avoid other types of U.S. assets, such as equities and real estate, since these do not serve the same policy objectives.
This means that if foreign countries simply need to accumulate Treasurys, they don’t have to run trade surpluses to obtain them. The necessary funds can also be raised by selling existing foreign assets such as stocks, real estate and factories.
That is precisely what happened in the 1960s through the mid-1970s. By then, the dollar had firmly established itself as the global reserve currency, yet the U.S. was almost always running a current-account surplus — not a deficit. Foreign investors were accumulating U.S. Treasurys, while American firms expanded abroad by acquiring foreign production facilities, either through direct purchases or “greenfield” investments, in which they built factories from the ground up.
The postwar era was hardly the only time when the country issuing the world’s reserve currency ran a current-account surplus. The British pound was the undisputed global reserve currency from the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800s until the outbreak of World War I in 1914. Throughout that period, the United Kingdom generally ran external surpluses, bolstered by high returns on investments across its colonial empire.
The current-account deficit is influenced not just by the exchange rate but by anything that affects the balance between national savings and investment.
There is another way to interpret the U.S. current-account deficit that helps explain why the relationship between the exchange rate and trade imbalances is more complicated than Miran’s theory suggests. In accounting terms, a country’s current-account surplus equals the difference between national savings and investment by both the government and the private sector. Importantly, “investment” here refers to physical assets such as factories, housing, infrastructure and equipment — not financial instruments.
When viewed through this lens, it is clear that the current-account deficit is influenced not just by the exchange rate but by anything that affects the balance between national savings and investment. In 2024, the U.S. fiscal deficit was 6.4% of GDP — significantly larger than the current-account deficit, which was under 4% of GDP.
While closing the fiscal deficit would not automatically eliminate the current-account deficit — that would depend on how the gap is closed and how the private sector responds — it is a far more straightforward fix than launching a trade war. Reducing the fiscal deficit would, however, involve the difficult political task of convincing Congress to pass more responsible tax and spending bills. And unlike a high-profile trade confrontation, it wouldn’t cause foreign leaders to curry favor with Trump; instead, it would shift media attention back to domestic politics and congressional negotiations.
Another key factor behind the current-account deficit is the strength of the American economy, which has been by far the most dynamic among the world’s major players in recent years. This has made U.S. businesses particularly attractive to investors. Even manufacturing has grown as a share of GDP. The reason employment has not kept pace is that modern factories are highly automated.
Miran’s plan, clever as it might be, is based on a flawed diagnosis. While the dollar’s role as the world’s leading reserve currency plays a part, it is just one of many factors contributing to America’s persistent trade deficits. And if the trade deficit has many causes, the idea that tariffs can be a cure-all is dubious at best.
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Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University and the recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics. He is the co-author (with Carmen M. Reinhart) of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” (Princeton University Press, 2011) and the author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem” (Yale University Press, 2025).
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>>> Progressive (PGR) has earned high praise from Berkshire Hathway's leaders
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/14/could-this-be-the-mystery-stock-billionaire-warren/
One company that could fit the Berkshire Hathaway criteria is Progressive (PGR), the second-largest automotive insurer in the U.S. behind State Farm. GEICO, wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway, rounds out the top three.
When it comes to the automotive insurance industry, Buffett sees it as a two-horse race between Progressive and GEICO. He has said:
I have always thought for a very long time [that] Progressive has been very well run. They have an appetite for growth. Sometimes they copy us. Sometimes we copy them. And I think that will be true five years from now, ten years for now.
Buffett's right-hand man, the late Charlie Munger, also praised Progressive, saying, "In the nature of things, every once in a while, somebody is a little better at something than we are."
Progressive's underwriting advantage
Thanks to its stellar underwriting ability, Progressive has gotten Buffett's and Munger's attention over the years. The company has committed to underwriting profitable insurance policies since 1971, when it went public. At the time, it was common to think that insurers should break even on their policies and make their actual returns from their investment portfolios.
CEO Peter Lewis bucked the trend then and prioritized achieving a combined ratio of 96, meaning the company would earn $4 of profit for every $100 in premiums written. This goal has been core to Progressive's disciplined underwriting and is a big reason for the stock's long-term outperformance.
One way to assess Progressive's stellar performance is to examine its loss ratio. This is one component of the combined ratio and the ratio of losses to premiums earned. Over the last nine years, Progressive's loss ratio has averaged 73%, an excellent number in the highly competitive auto insurance industry. GEICO, also a solid underwriter, averaged 82% over that period.
Berkshire's other connection to Progressive
Progressive could also be a candidate for Berkshire Hathaway because of Todd Combs's connection to the insurer. Combs works alongside Ted Weschler to help manage Berkshire's investment portfolio with Buffett. Combs worked at Progressive as a pricing analyst in the late '90s and is quite familiar with the company.
During an interview on the "Art of Investing" podcast, Combs recounted talking to Buffett in 2010 before being offered a job at Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett asked Combs his opinion on Progressive vs. GEICO, and Combs told him that GEICO excelled at marketing and branding, but Progressive's focus on data would drive its long-term success. Combs was right about Progressive's data advantage -- the stock has crushed it over the past few decades.
A quality company for long-term investors
Berkshire Hathaway has long had its eye on Progressive as a competitor, and the conglomerate may have seen an excellent opportunity to scoop up the insurer at the end of last year. Progressive continued its profitable underwriting streak, maintaining an annual combined ratio below 96 for the 23rd consecutive year. The stock has climbed 28% since the start of the year.
We won't know if Berkshire is buying Progressive until its 13-F filing for the first quarter is made available in mid-May, assuming it's not marked as confidential again. Regardless, Progressive has been an excellent stock for long-term investors. Even if Berkshire isn't buying it, it can make a solid addition to your portfolio today.
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>>> Coinbase stock soars 24% as inclusion in S&P 500 signals 'dramatic turnaround' for crypto industry
Yahoo Finance
by Ines Ferré
May 13, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-stock-soars-24-as-inclusion-in-sp-500-signals-dramatic-turnaround-for-crypto-industry-201230743.html
Coinbase (COIN) stock surged nearly 24% on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered the inclusion of the first and only crypto exchange in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) — a major milestone for the company and an industry once in the crosshairs of regulators.
"Coinbase has gone from being in an intense litigation with the SEC just a few months back (later dropped by the SEC under the Trump regime) to being the latest addition to S&P 500," Bernstein managing director Gautam Chhugani wrote on Tuesday morning.
"This event symbolises the dramatic turnaround in fortunes for the crypto industry and its rising significance as the frontier of financial innovation," he added.
The significance of formally joining the S&P 500 on May 19 was not lost on company executives either.
"This is a major milestone, not just for Coinbase, but also for the entire crypto industry," wrote Alesia Haas, Coinbase's CFO, on Monday afternoon. "Joining this prestigious index reflects how far Coinbase and the industry have come and is a signal of where the world is heading."
The announcement came days after Bitcoin (BTC-USD) crossed the $100,000 level to reach its highest level since late January.
The cryptocurrency has rallied since President Trump won the White House last year and put in place key figures to forge ahead with a token-friendly framework, a promise on which he campaigned.
One of those moves included placing cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins at the helm of the SEC after Gary Gensler stepped down on Jan. 20.
In late February, Coinbase announced the SEC had agreed to drop its enforcement case against the company.
Under Gensler, the agency had charged Coinbase with operating as an unregistered national securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency.
Coinbase shares rallied to all-time highs in December, surging 90% since Trump's election. The stock declined to pre-election levels in April as the overall market sank following Trump's tariff policy unveiling.
Year to date, Coinbase shares are up more than 3%.
Bernstein has a Buy rating on the stock with a $310 price target. The analysts point to the crypto exchange's $320 billion in assets with around 10 million active users.
"With the Trump Administration’s aspiration to make America the ‘crypto capital of the world’, Coinbase remains the dominant platform (66% U.S market share) to ride the tailwinds," wrote Chhugani.
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CME, CBOE, ICE - >>> CME Hits 52-Week High: Time to Buy Despite Expensive Valuation?
Zacks
by Tanuka De
May 8, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cme-hits-52-week-high-172800347.html
CME Group CME hit a 52-week high of $286.48 on May 7. Shares closed at $284.82 after gaining 22% year to date, outperforming the industry, the sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite in the same time frame.
CME Group has outperformed its peers, Cboe Global Markets CBOE and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE, which have gained 19.9% and 18.5%, respectively, year to date.
With a capitalization of $102.6 billion, CME Group is the largest futures exchange in the world in terms of trading volume and notional value traded. The average number of shares traded in the last three months was 2.6 million.
Its solid portfolio of futures products in emerging markets, diversified derivative product lines and global reach, along with its OTC offerings, increased electronic trading, cross-selling through alliances, and a strong global presence and liquidity position should continue to drive CME Group.
CME shares are trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend.
CME Shares Are Expensive
CME Group shares are trading at a premium to the industry. The company’s price-to-earnings of 25.33X is higher than the industry average of 24.55X.
The stock is also expensive compared with other players like Intercontinental Exchange and Cboe Global Markets.
Cboe Global Markets is the largest stock exchange operator by volume in the United States and a leading market globally for ETP trading. Its strategy of expanding its product line across asset classes, broadening geographic reach and diversifying the business mix reflects operational expertise, which, in turn, poises it well for growth.
Intercontinental Exchange is poised for growth, banking on the strength of its compelling portfolio and expansive risk-management services, which also ensure revenue flow, as well as strategic buyouts, a solid balance sheet and effective capital deployment. Its dividend history is impressive.
Target Price Reflects Potential Downside
Based on short-term price targets offered by 18 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $270.39 per share. The average indicates a potential 4.6% downside from the last closing price.
Optimistic Analyst Sentiment and Growth Projection for CME Instill Confidence
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is pegged at $11.11, indicating an 8.3% year-over-year increase on 6.7% higher revenues of $6.5 billion. The consensus estimate for 2026 is pegged at $11.50, indicating a 3.5% year-over-year increase on 4.5% higher revenues of $6.8 billion. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 6.5%.
The consensus estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has moved 3.6% and 2.9% north in the past 30 days, respectively, reflecting analyst optimism.
CME’s Return on Capital
Return on equity, which reflects the company’s efficiency in utilizing shareholders' funds, was 14% in the trailing 12 months, better than the industry average of 13.9%.
Return on invested capital (ROIC) hovered around 10% over the last few years, reflecting CME’s efficiency in utilizing funds to generate income. However, ROIC in the trailing 12 months was 0.6%, which compared unfavorably with the industry average of 5.2%.
Factors Impacting CME
CME Group demonstrates strong organic growth. Given that CME is an exchange, it naturally benefits from heightened market volatility, which fuels trading activity and, in turn, increases clearing and transaction fees. These fees continue to be the largest contributor to CME’s top line, and their sustained growth bodes well for future revenue expansion.
CME Group is also seeing rising electronic trading activity and increasing traction in crypto assets, driven by growing participation in the broader crypto economy. With Donald Trump’s second term ushering in a more crypto-friendly regulatory climate, CME is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends.
CME’s investments are delivering positive returns, and its ongoing focus on cost efficiency is helping to improve margins. A robust capital base supports initiatives to grow its market data business, broaden its product range, and pursue strategic capital deployment.
Moreover, CME has consistently delivered strong financial performance, with free cash flow conversion exceeding 85% in recent quarters—a testament to its solid earnings quality.
Nonetheless, CME remains exposed to concentration risk, as it continues to rely heavily on Interest Rate and Equity products for a large portion of its clearing and transaction fee revenues, despite diversification efforts. It also operates in a highly competitive environment. The derivatives exchange segment faces rising pressure from crypto trading platforms, while other segments contend with competition from electronic communication networks, single-dealer platforms, and bank-owned trading venues.
Parting Thoughts on CME
A strong global presence, a compelling product portfolio, focus on over-the-counter clearing services and a solid capital position poise CME well for growth. A crypto-friendly regulatory climate will add to the upside.
CME’s dividend history is impressive too. It pays five dividends per year, with the fifth being variable and based on excess cash flow, making it an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors.
Despite its premium valuation, an unfavorable ROIC and concentration risk, the tailwinds make this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock worth adding to one’s portfolio. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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>>> Why Sezzle Stock Was Sizzling Today
by Jeremy Bowman
Motley Fool
May 8, 2025
Key Points
Sezzle posted blowout results in its first-quarter earnings report.
The BNPL company's revenue growth more than doubled and its margins expanded.
Sezzle seems to have differentiated itself in the crowded BNPL market.
Shares of Sezzle (NASDAQ: SEZL) were on fire today as the buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) platform delivered strong results in its first quarter and raised its guidance.
The quarter is the latest evidence of strong momentum in the business, and the stock was up 51% as of 1:24 p.m. ET.
Sezzle soars
The fintech company said that gross merchandise volume (GMV), or spend on the platform, jumped 64.1% to $808.7 million, with customer purchase frequency up to 6.1 times in the quarter from 4.5 in the quarter a year ago.
That drove revenue up a whopping 123.3% to $104.9 million, which crushed estimates at $64.8 million.
The company had 658,000 users in the quarter, and delivered strong results on the bottom line as well. Operating income jumped 260.6% to $49.9 million, giving it an operating margin of 47.6%. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings per share jumped from $0.22 to $1.00, which was miles ahead of the consensus at $0.32.
CEO Charlie Youakim said, "Our investments in innovation and consumer experience drove new highs in engagement and performance in the first quarter. Stronger consumer activity and better-than-expected repayment trends propelled quarterly earnings above our expectations. These positive developments give us the confidence to raise our 2025 net income guidance by nearly 50% to $120 million."
What's next for Sezzle?
Sezzle is clearly gaining market share rapidly in the fragmented BNPL space, and has some key differences from other BNPLs, including that it gives users the option to choose whether their data is reported to credit bureaus, meaning it appeals to users who don't want to risk hurting their credit scores.
The model appears to be resonating, given the skyrocketing growth, and management raised its guidance as well, calling for total revenue growth for the year of 60%-65%, up from 25%-30%. It expects earnings per share to reach $3.25, up from a previous level of $2.21.
Based on that forecast, Sezzle still looks very reasonably valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 25. The stock could easily move higher from here if its rapid growth continues.
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>>> Brown & Brown's profit rises on higher income from fees
Reuters
April 28, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brown-browns-profit-rises-higher-212615977.html
(Reuters) - Insurance brokerage Brown & Brown reported a 13% rise in first-quarter profit on Monday, benefiting from higher income from commissions and fees.
Insurance brokerages, such as Brown & Brown, serve as a bridge between an insurer and customers, helping clients find a policy that best suits their needs. Unlike insurers, they do not directly sell policies.
Economic uncertainty, coupled with increased business risk from cyber attacks and natural disasters, has sustained insurance spending as risk management becomes more critical than ever.
Brokers like Brown & Brown benefit as consumers buy more insurance product, earning revenue on the sale of such products.
The company's commissions and fees jumped 12% to $1.39 billion in the three months ended March 31.
The company's investment and other income, however, dropped to $19 million in the reported quarter from $21 million in the year-ago period.
Earlier this month, peer Marsh McLennan's beat Wall Street estimates for first-quarter profit.
Brown & Brown is one of the largest independent insurance brokerages in the U.S. specializing in risk management. It operates through four business segments - retail, national programs, wholesale brokerage and services.
Net profit attributable to Brown & Brown rose to $331 million, or $1.15 per share, in the January-to-March quarter, compared with $293 million, or $1.02 per share, last year.
Brown & Brown, which specializes in risk management, reported an 11.6% jump in total revenue to $1.40 billion.
In February, the company named former Willis Re and Inver Re CEO Steve Hearn as chief operating officer.
Shares of the company rose marginally in trading after the bell.
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>>> Sezzle Announces Six-for-One Stock Split and $50 Million Stock Repurchase Program
GlobeNewswire · Sezzle
March 10, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sezzle-announces-six-one-stock-200900811.html
Minneapolis, MN, March 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sezzle Inc. (NASDAQ: SEZL,) (Sezzle or Company) // Purpose-driven digital payment platform, Sezzle, today announced that the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a six-for-one split of the Company’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make ownership more accessible to investors and employees. Each Sezzle stockholder of record at the close of business on March 21, 2025, will receive a dividend of 5 additional shares of common stock for every share held on the record date, to be distributed after the close of trading on March 28, 2025. Trading is expected to begin on a stock split adjusted basis on March 31.
Additionally, the Board has authorized the Company to repurchase up to $50.0 million of the Company’s common stock. The repurchase program has no fixed expiration, allowing flexibility in execution based on market conditions and other factors.
Repurchases under the program will be made in open market transactions in compliance with the Securities and Exchange Commission Rule 10b-18 and federal securities laws. The stock repurchase program does not obligate the Company to acquire any particular amount of common stock, and it may be extended, suspended or discontinued at any time at the Company’s discretion.
Contact Information
Lee Brading, CFA
Investor Relations
+1 651 240 6001
InvestorRelations@sezzle.com
Erin Foran
Media Enquiries
+1 651 403 2184
erin.foran@sezzle.com
About Sezzle Inc.
Sezzle is a fintech company on a mission to financially empower the next generation. Sezzle’s payment platform increases the purchasing power for millions of consumers by offering interest-free installment plans at online stores and select in-store locations. Sezzle’s transparent, inclusive, and seamless payment option allows consumers to take control over their spending, be more responsible, and gain access to financial freedom.
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>>> Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) operates as a technology-enabled payments company primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers payment solution in-store and at online retail stores; and through proprietary payments solution that connects consumers with merchants for instantly extends credit at the point-of-sale.
It also provides Sezzle Platform that provides a payments solution for consumers that extends credit at the point-of-sale allowing consumers to purchase and receive the ordered merchandise at the time of sale while paying in installments over time;
Pay-in-Four, which allows consumers to pay a fourth of the purchase price up front and then another fourth of the purchase price every two weeks thereafter over a total of six weeks;
Pay-in-Full that allows consumers to pay for the full value of their order up-front through the Sezzle Platform without the extension of credit; and
Pay-in-Two and other alternative installment options, which allow consumer to pay half of the value of their order up-front and the second half in two weeks.
In addition, the company offers Sezzle Virtual Card that allows consumers to access the Sezzle Platform in the form of merchants in-store and online with merchants that are not directly integrated with Sezzle;
Sezzle Anywhere, a paid subscription service that allows consumers to use their Sezzle Virtual Card at any merchant online or in-store;
Sezzle On-Demand, a service that allows consumers who are not subscribed to Sezzle Anywhere to use the Sezzle Platform at any merchant online or in-store;
Sezzle Premium, a paid subscription service that allows its consumers to access large, non-integrated premium merchants; and
Sezzle Up, an opt-in feature of the Sezzle Platform.
Further, the company offers Long-Term Lending through collaboration with third-party lenders and Product Innovation. Sezzle Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SEZL/news/
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>>> Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
Bloomberg
by Katherine Doherty
March 16, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/darker-dark-pool-welcome-wall-210011026.html
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s infamous dark pools are getting even darker.
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
They’re offering what are dubbed private rooms, gated venues that take the core benefit of a dark pool — the ability to hide big equity deals so they won't impact prices — and add exclusivity, specifying exactly who can partake in any trade.
Created within the dark pools themselves, the rooms are independent from one another and each is invisible to anyone not invited, raising questions about both market transparency and fragmentation. But with more than half of all US stock trading now happening away from public exchanges, they’re in high demand from firms eager to choose whom they do business with, often to help them carry out individual orders more efficiently.
“It’s like shopping when you know exactly the item you want, and who and where you are buying or selling it from, instead of going to Walmart on Black Friday,” says David Cannizzo, the head of electronic trading at Raymond James and Associates. “You’re controlling the terms of engagement.”
Right now, it’s impossible to say how many private rooms exist, or how much activity is moving through them. Companies operating alternative trading systems, or ATS — the formal term for dark pools — say it’s a minority of their volumes at present, since the growth in demand is a relatively new phenomenon.
But they’re seeing rapid adoption by everyone from broker-dealers and market makers to hedge funds and asset managers, so much so that private-room volumes at one major ATS — Stamford, Connecticut-based IntelligentCross — now eclipse the total trading activity at nine rival dark-pool operators.
Dark pools are so-called because the trades they handle happen away from the “lit” public exchange. That helps prevent order details leaking to the broader market and triggering adverse price moves before they can be executed. But there’s still a downside: a pool is open to anyone, and firms inside never know who their counterparty is in any trade. Private rooms can be even more discreet.
“It’s about exercising control, what liquidity a broker wants to interact with to achieve better execution quality,” says Roman Ginis, CEO of Imperative Execution, the parent company of IntelligentCross.
There are myriad reasons why users may opt for private rooms. Take the case of CastleOak Securities, a New York-based minority-run brokerage. The firm wants to trade with similarly minded businesses, so it uses a private room provided by the ATS operator OneChronos.
“It’s about exercising control, what liquidity a broker wants to interact with”
Carlos Cabana, head of equity sales and trading at CastleOak, dubs the room a “diversity pool,” because the participants are all minority-operated brokerage firms. While in this instance CastleOak doesn’t know specifically who is on the other side of every trade, it knows it will be one of about 10 counterparties who meet certain eligibility criteria related to ownership and investment goals.
“Think of it as an apartment that’s hosting a party, and there’s one purpose for the party with only invited guests,” says Cabana.
Thanks to CastleOak’s increasing use of the diversity pool, OneChronos is now its third most-used trading venue, behind only the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, Cabana says.
Execution Excellence
Private rooms are known by a slew of other names including hosted pools, restricted-access rooms, ATS pools, and custom counterparty groups. They’re gaining popularity in the huge, ultra-fast modern market as a way to help firms avoid losing out against players who may be able to move quicker or who have access to superior information.
For instance, many brokers and market makers are keen to take the other side of retail investor orders. Those small, less volatile trades are generally unlikely to impact prices — so a market maker won’t see an adverse move occur the instant it agrees to fill an order, as might happen with another type of counterparty.
High-Frequency Traders Love Business With Robinhood
Brokers who take orders to private rooms typically expect to fill the order at the midpoint of the national-best-bid and offer, or NBBO (assuming the rule of the room is set up that way, which is usually the case). If for some reason the order is not filled in the room at the midpoint, it can move to the broader ATS where multiple other parties can compete to fill it. And if a broker has bad experiences with a private room, they can change to another in the future, avoiding those counterparties.
“The problem we have is, how do we identify good versus bad liquidity?” says Jatin Suryawanshi, global head of quant strategy at Jefferies, who estimates that 15 in every 100 shares executed by the firm’s algorithms currently move via a room. “In using private rooms, you can prioritize who you want to interact with.”
Private room growth has accelerated amid the migration of stock trading away from public exchanges and as their use has become more common. They emerged at the ATS firm LeveL as far back as 18 years ago. LeveL started by allowing firms to match their own orders, in what's known as internalization. That expanded to other forms of segmentation, including bi-lateral and multi-lateral agreements, where one party agrees to trade with another, or multiple parties agree to only interact with each other, within the same ATS.
Following requests from its own clients, IntelligentCross started offering its version of private rooms about a year-and-a-half ago, and OneChronos joined the party last year.
Private rooms are not generally needed by big banks or brokers who have the resources to create their own ATS or what are called single-dealer platforms. That’s another breed of off-exchange trading venue where the operator is always the counterparty to any trade.
But for smaller players, it's too expensive and cumbersome to build and manage an ATS or SDP, meet the associated regulatory reporting requirements and set up the necessary connections. Arranging a private room at an established ATS is a solution.
“There are various factors of why a firm would want to outsource this activity than keep it in house,” says Steve Miele, CEO of Kezar Markets, the parent of LeveL. “It could be a cost, an overhead they don’t necessarily have to take on if we can build it, then scale it” using the existing network, he says. “We lower the barrier to entry.”
At IntelligentCross, the majority of rooms currently offered serve institutional brokers that don’t have capacity to conduct similar activities internally. Jefferies trades in a private room provided by the firm where it interacts with seven other brokers who don’t have their own ATS, but have institutional orders, according to Suryawanshi.
“These are always created at the request of a subscriber, who is the host that invites others to be guests in their book,” says Ginis at Imperative Execution.
Dark Disclosure
Not every ATS is rushing to embrace private rooms. New York-based PureStream offers “pools” that operate like rooms, but they are disclosed to all subscribers if they are created, and anyone can join. In essence, the room is open to all.
So far no one has asked to set up a pool at PureStream, so there is zero volume in so-called sub-pools, according to CEO Armando Diaz. He says offering a private room that isn’t open to all subscribers raises questions about the regulation. “The more the host controls the room, the more they are operating an ATS, and that opens up regulatory risk,” he says.
Perhaps the biggest criticism of private rooms is that they create phantom liquidity, because transactions taking place inside a room are simply lumped in with the total activity reported by its dark pool parent. That creates a misleading picture for anyone trying to gauge market depth, since reported trading volumes include activity not available to those outside the room.
ATS are regulated trading venues, overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which in 2018 enhanced its supervision of such venues by imposing new disclosure requirements. Each dark pool must now file a form, ATS-N, which gives an overview about the specific trading mechanisms on its platform.
These publicly available forms go into various details, including whether private rooms are available. But they don’t say how many exist or who is in them, and the varying language and levels of disclosure used mean it can sometimes be difficult to determine if an ATS is even hosting any rooms.
Wall Street Dark Pools to Come Out of Shadows Thanks to SEC
“There are no rules to force ATS to break out the identity of single-dealer rooms or their volume,” Larry Tabb, head of market structure at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote in a May note. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority “does a good job of ATS volume reporting on a post-execution basis. Yet there are no rules to aid analysts or users looking to break down the percentage of ATS volume executed in the open pool vs. the private room, or the volume executed using segmentation strategies,” he wrote.
“It’s about exercising control, what liquidity a broker wants to interact with”
Dark pools are no strangers to transparency worries. Their opacity provoked extensive media coverage and regulatory scrutiny about a decade ago amid speculation they gave high-frequency firms advantages against other investors — attention partly prompted by the bestselling book Flash Boys.
Representatives for both Finra and the SEC declined to comment.
‘Growth Mode’
For their users, private rooms are a handy tool, but still one of a set. Hosted pools represent a single-digit percentage of IntelligentCross’s overall volumes for now — an average of about 5.4% last year — because they’re so new, according to Ginis. “It will take brokers some time to optimize for this,” he says.
CEO of OneChronos Capital Markets Vlad Khandros says its rooms represent less than 5% of volume at present as “it’s newer for us, so it’s still in growth mode.” But demand is strong. “We’ve seen increased interest from both retail and institutional brokers,” Khandros says. “The focus on execution quality will continue to grow.”
LeveL declined to disclose the number of rooms it operates or how much activity takes place in them, with Miele saying the absence of industry-wide criteria for categorizing rooms means it could be “misleading to quantify.”
Mark Gurliacci, senior vice president and senior quantitative trader at AllianceBernstein, reckons up to 75% of the firm’s activity is now happening off-exchange, including in private rooms. While the latter is a small slice of their trading at present, he thinks it’s set to grow.
“Many firms are setting up private rooms these days,” says Gurliacci, who used to work for the NYSE. “They are innovative, and here to stay. There is more going on there than most people know.”
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>>> Blackstone raises $8 bln in latest real estate debt fund amid nascent sector recovery
Reuters
March 7, 2025
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackstone-raises-8-bln-latest-real-estate-debt-fund-amid-nascent-sector-2025-03-07/
March 7 (Reuters) - Blackstone (BX.N), opens new tab has raised $8 billion in its most recent real estate debt fund, the world's largest alternative asset manager said on Friday, a sign that the property sector is seeing a recovery after a couple of tumultuous years.
The fund - Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies V - will be active in North America, Europe and Australia and make loans and buy existing loans, according to the company.
Investors including Blackstone and wealthy individuals are scouting for office properties in New York as companies call employees back to the office, fueling a nascent recovery in the battered commercial real estate market.
In Europe, soaring demand for high-quality offices is pushing rents to records in central London, giving investors cause for optimism even as overall office sale volumes remain at multi-year lows.
Real estate investors, consultants and bankers say demand is rising for top-quality offices in New York, spurring them to strike more deals.
Blackstone's current office exposure accounts for less than 2% of its real estate holdings, versus more than 60% in 2007, according to company data.
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Crypto paves the way for CBDC.
Last year Trump suddenly goes from being anti-crypto to hugely pro-crypto, and then he not only creates his own meme coin, but starts his own crypto ETF (and 5 other ETFs). Anyone see a problem here??? sheesh. Whatever happened to Presidents putting their finances into a blind trust while they are President, to prevent conflicts of interest?
The rules against Congressmen and Senators doing insider trading have been routinely ignored for years. Pelosi and her hedge fund husband were the most flagrant offenders, but now Trump has leapfrogged them all on the corruption scale. He hasn't taken money and bribes from foreign countries yet like Biden and Hillary did, but that was chicken feed compared to the billions Trump stands to get from his crypto caper.
So why isn't the mainstream media going ballistic about such flagrant profiteering by Trump? Hardly a peep out of them, and it's probably because Trump's embracing of crypto is setting the stage for the eventual adoption of the CBDC. The Fed's CBDC plans had run into Congressional opposition, so they're using crytpo to get the CBDC 'plumbing' in place on the sly. Crypto is the Trojan horse to set the stage for CBDC. Trump comes out as anti CBDC, but it's a smokescreen to fool the public, and in return he gets a mega payday of billions from his meme coins and crypto ETFs.
Biden grifted 10s of millions from Ukraine, Hillary had her Uranium One payday, but Trump will get BILLIONS from the crypto caper, and sets the stage for the Orwellian CBDC.
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>>> Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) operates as a technology-enabled payments company primarily in the United States and Canada. The company provides payment solution in-store and at online retail stores; and through proprietary payments solution that connects consumers with merchants. It also offers Sezzle Platform that provides a payments solution for consumers that extends credit at the point-of-sale allowing consumers to purchase and receive the ordered merchandise at the time of sale while paying in installments over time; Pay-in-Four, which allows consumers to pay a fourth of the purchase price up front and then another fourth of the purchase price every two weeks thereafter over a total of six weeks; Pay-in-Full that allows consumers to pay for the full value of their order up-front through the Sezzle Platform without the extension of credit; and Pay-in-Two and other alternative installment options, which allow consumer to pay half of the value of their order up-front and the second half in two weeks. In addition, the company provides Sezzle Virtual Card that allows consumers to access the Sezzle Platform in the form of close-end installment loans and shop with merchants that are not integrated with Sezzle; Sezzle Anywhere, a paid subscription service that allows consumers to use their Sezzle Virtual Card at any merchant online or in-store; Sezzle Premium, a paid subscription service that allows its consumers to access large, non-integrated premium merchants; and Sezzle Up, an opt-in feature of the Sezzle Platform. Further, it offers Long-Term Lending through collaboration with third-party lenders and Product Innovation. Sezzle Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SEZL/profile/
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>>> Blackstone to buy $1 billion Virginia power plant near data centers
Reuters
January 24, 2025
By David French
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-buy-1-billion-virginia-233323117.html
(Reuters) -The unit of Blackstone (BX) dedicated to investments in the energy industry has agreed to acquire Potomac Energy Center, the asset manager told Reuters on Thursday, in a deal symbolizing the allure to investors of power plants sited near data centers.
Blackstone Energy Transition Partners has agreed to buy the 774-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant in Loudoun County in northern Virginia, according to a statement.
The statement gave no financial details, but sources familiar with the matter said Blackstone is paying around $1 billion for the facility. Fellow investment firm Ares Management has owned the plant since 2021.
Potomac Energy Center is situated in the area of northern Virginia outside of Washington D.C. which is estimated to have around a quarter of the current U.S. data center capacity.
This proximity was one of the reasons why Potomac Energy Center was so attractive, according to Blackstone Energy Transition Partners' Senior Managing Director Bilal Khan.
"This opportunity is unique," Khan told Reuters. "Not only for its location and its unparalleled access to data centers in Virginia, but also for the efficiency of the plant and the young age of the facility."
The plant was built in 2017.
The boom in artificial intelligence and data centers is driving power demand to record levels, with growth expected to persist for the rest of the decade. This is making generation assets increasingly attractive to buyers, especially so for gas-fired power plants which can provide the consistent power output that data centers require.
Earlier this month, Constellation Energy agreed the $16.4 billion purchase of Calpine. The largest U.S. power deal in nearly two decades is aimed at adding Calpine's predominantly gas-fired fleet to Constellation's existing generation mix which is majority nuclear power.
Blackstone has been investing, across a number of strategies, into both data centers and the energy infrastructure powering them. In September, it agreed a $16 billion deal to buy Australian data center operator AirTrunk, while AI cloud platform CoreWeave said in May it raised a $7.5 billion debt facility from investment firms including Blackstone.
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>>> Wall Street firms are ditching climate coalitions. Do they matter?
BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, is the latest financial firm to back out of a voluntary climate initiative it joined just a few years ago.
The Washington Post
January 11, 2025
By Nicolás Rivero
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/01/11/blackrock-net-zero-coalition/
The Stratos Direct Air Capture facility (DAC), a joint venture between Occidental Petroleum Corp. and asset manager BlackRock, is seen in Ector County, Texas. (Adrees Latif/Reuters)
BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, is the latest Wall Street giant to ditch a global group of investment firms founded in 2020 to pressure companies to cut carbon emissions. On Friday, it announced it had left the Net Zero Asset Managers (NZAM) initiative.
BlackRock is part of a broader exodus from green finance groups that banks and investors launched a few years ago to show their commitment to fighting climate change. Now, with Republicans in control of Congress, President-elect Donald Trump set to take office and Republican-led states suing financial firms for their green stances, those banks and investment managers are abandoning their climate coalitions in droves.
How big of a setback is this for slashing carbon emissions? Experts say that financial firms are likely to continue what they were already doing to promote green investments. “A lot of this is just political show,” said Madison Condon, an associate professor at Boston University School of Law.
BlackRock said as much in a letter to its clients explaining its decision. Even after leaving NZAM, the company said that it planned to keep giving investors the option to put their money into climate-focused funds designed to nudge companies toward cutting emissions, and that it would continue tracking the risks climate change poses to the companies it invests in.
What does a climate alliance do?
The point of forming green finance groups was to nudge banks and asset managers to push the trillions of dollars they control toward companies that are working on cutting carbon emissions and away from those that contribute to climate change. In theory, that would create an incentive for climate action. Participating firms were supposed to set aggressive climate goals and regularly report on their progress.
“NZAM has successfully helped raise the level of ambition across investors globally and supported their progress as they have sought to navigate their own individual paths toward a decarbonizing economy in line with their long-term financial objectives and fiduciary duties,” a spokesperson for the initiative wrote in an email.
But from BlackRock’s perspective, its NZAM membership didn’t do much. “Our participation in NZAM did not impact the way we managed client portfolios,” the company wrote in its client letter.
Many of BlackRock’s U.S. peers have also backed out of climate groups. Over the past month, the six biggest U.S. banks — Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan — left another climate group, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, four years after they helped create it. Several of the biggest Wall Street giants abandoned a U.N.-backed sustainability alliance called the Climate Action 100+ last year.
But, despite these departures, the companies that BlackRock and its peers invest in are already factoring climate change into their decisions, whether or not they talk about it publicly or face pressure from investors, according to Lin Peng, a finance professor at Baruch College.
“Climate change is still an important part of how companies make decisions,” Peng said. “Real estate companies and insurance companies have to take into consideration how wildfires or sea level rise change their risk.”
A ‘chilling effect’ for green finance
While climate alliances didn’t affect how banks and investment firms operate, they left the companies more vulnerable to criticism and investigations from Republican officials, experts said.
In November, 11 Republican state attorneys general led by Texas sued BlackRock and other financial firms for allegedly colluding to raise energy prices by encouraging companies to mine less coal. In December, Republicans in the House accused BlackRock and other asset managers of forming a “climate cartel” to cut companies’ emissions at the expense of shareholders.
In both cases, officials pointed to groups like NZAM and the Climate Action 100+ as evidence that financial firms were colluding with each other in ways that violate anti-monopoly laws.
“Our memberships in some of these organizations have caused confusion regarding BlackRock’s practices and subjected us to legal inquiries from various public officials,” the firm said in its letter.
Condon said it doesn’t matter much whether a bank or investment manager joins or leaves a climate alliance. But, she said, the backlash against BlackRock and its peers has created a “chilling effect” to discourage financial firms in the United States from taking a public stand on climate change.
In recent years, banks and investment firms, along with regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission, have pushed companies to disclose more information about how climate change or the shift to renewable energy might affect their business. Oil and gas companies, for instance, might expect to sell less fuel in a world with more electric cars.
“If investment managers are chilled to the point where they can’t even acknowledge the green transition, this would clearly be a loss because the transition is happening,” she said. “With Trump being elected, we’re going see less interest in America to pressure companies for this type of disclosure.”
“That’s why that could be a significant step backward.”
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Cbiz - >>> A new top 10 firm? Two top 15 firms band together
Journal of Accountancy
By Bryan Strickland
November 7, 2024
https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2024/nov/cbiz-marcum-merger.html#:~:text=When%20the%20firms%20announced%20a,clients%20and%20attract%20new%20business.
Two of the nation's top 15 accounting firms have joined forces with the completion of CBIZ's acquisition of Marcum LLP.
According to a news release, CBIZ has acquired the nonattest business of Marcum, and CBIZ CPAs has acquired Marcum's attest business. CBIZ CPAs (formerly Mayer Hoffman McCann) is a national independent CPA firm with a long-standing administrative service agreement with CBIZ.
The acquisitions create an expected combined annualized revenue of approximately $2.8 billion, which could vault CBIZ into the top seven accounting firms based on 2023 revenue.
"Now, with over 10,000 team members, we will offer our clients an enhanced breadth of services and depth of expertise unmatched in our industries all aimed at helping them grow their business," Jerry Grisko, president and CEO of CBIZ, said in the news release. "With even deeper subject matter expertise, industry resources, service lines, and insights, we can provide actionable advice and new and innovative data-driven products and solutions."
When the firms announced a definitive agreement over the summer, Jeffrey Weiner, Marcum's chairman and CEO, said: "By joining forces, we will capitalize on our strengths and leverage our similar models to bring more diversified services and even greater subject matter expertise to our clients and attract new business. We both have a proven track record of growth through successful acquisitions, and we are excited to bring these two best-in-class organizations together."
Before the acquisition, CBIZ & MHM ranked 11th in revenue in 2023 at $1.42 billion, while Marcum ranked 13th at $1.33 billion. Grant Thornton, which struck a major private-equity deal earlier this year, ranked seventh in 2023 revenue at $2.36 billion.
Private-equity interest in large firms continues. In the last month, Armanino struck a deal, and Cohen & Co. recently did the same.
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>>> Is Moody’s Corporation (MCO) the Best Stock In Buffett Stock Portfolio?
Insider Monkey
by Ashar Jawad
October 16, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moody-corporation-mco-best-stock-142943897.html
We recently compiled a list titled Buffett Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks for 2024. In this article, we will look at where Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) ranks among the top 10 stocks in Buffet's portfolio.
Warren Buffet is one of the most accomplished investors in the history of Wall Street. According to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index 2024, the Oracle of Omaha has a net worth of $143 billion, making him the ninth richest person in the world. His wealth would have been much more had he not decided to donate most of his vast fortune to charities. Since 2006, Buffet has donated over $55 billion to various charitable organizations, with a majority of the gifts going to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Buffet rose to prominence in 1965, after transitioning his investment firm into a conglomerate that held stakes in companies belonging to a broad range of industries. Between then and 2023, his firm earned average annual returns of 19.8%, outperforming most stock indices that delivered returns around the 10 percent mark during this period. However, this year, Buffet seems to be in a defensive mode and is currently in the news for his sell-off spree, significantly reducing his investments in several notable companies.
There have been mixed opinions about Buffet hunkering down on stocks. Edward Jones analyst, Jim Shanahan, said that the actions make him ‘concerned’ about Buffet’s outlook for the stock market and the American economy. In contrast, Daniel Ives, a Wedbush analyst, is less worried and believes that despite the selling spree, Berkshire still holds the top positions in those stocks by large margins, which should not be viewed as a ‘smoke signal for bad news ahead’.
So what will Warren Buffet do with all that cash? Andrew Bary, the associate editor at Barron’s, recently stated that the billionaire has been on the look for a major acquisition for some while now, which has so far proven elusive. He believes the Berkshire CEO may just hold the cash for some while, earn interest on Treasury Bills, and wait for potential opportunities to grab in the stock market.
Another factor that has likely contributed to Warren Buffet dumping stake in some of his top stocks is the speculation around the increase in capital gains tax. The debate on the tax rate has been on for some time now and has even become a talking point in the run-up to the presidential elections. Vice President, Kamala Harris, during a speech in New Hampshire this month, proposed to raise the long-term capital gains tax for wealthy individuals to 28%.
The current tax rate is 21% when a gain is realized. Massive gains over the long term result in a large tax. Warren Buffet invested in stocks he is currently selling a long time ago, and hence, is sitting on handsome gains. The rationale behind selling these stocks could be to capitalize on the gains as much as possible on the current low tax rate, instead of paying hefty taxes later if the rate were to be increased.
Methodology
We scanned Warren Buffet’s portfolio, as of June 30, 2024, and picked the top 10 stocks according to their stake value. The figures were sourced from the Insider Monkey Database.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO)
Stake Value as of Q2 2024: $10,384,249,654
Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) is an American business and financial services company, headquartered in New York City, which specializes in providing data, intelligence, and analytical tools to mitigate risks and help financial experts make confident and informed decisions. It is the parent company of credit rating agency, Moody’s Ratings, which is considered among the three best credit rating agencies alongside S&P and Fitch.
Moody’s is among some of the oldest holdings in Warren Buffet’s portfolio and still generates substantial value through dividend gains and share price appreciation. As of June 30 this year, Berkshire Hathaway had investments worth $10.4 billion in the company, making it one of the top picks from the Buffet stock portfolio.
During Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of $1.8 billion, representing a 22% increase year-over-year. Adjusting operating margins for the quarter were close to 50%. Net income stood at $600 million, with an EPS of $3.28, comfortably beating analysts’ expectations of $3.03 per share. The strong results were driven by a 36% increase in revenue in Moody’s Investor Services division and an 8% growth in the Analytics segment’s revenue.
Looking ahead in the year, Moody’s expects revenue growth to be in the low-teens percent range, with expenses expected to be around the high single-digit range. Adjusted operating margin is forecasted to be between 46-47%. The company has also raised its full-year EPS guidance and now anticipates earnings to be between $11 to $11.40, representing a 50-cent increase at the midpoint. The free cash flow guidance is now also expected to be $2.2 billion, instead of the initial guidance of $2 billion.
The company has also entered into strategic partnerships and collaborations with industry giants such as MSCI, Zillow, and Google, to enhance the insights available to its customers. Moreover, in September this year, Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) further bolstered its risk assessment strategy with the acquisition of Praedicat, a risk analytics company, with casualty and liability modeling capabilities. The terms of the deal were not made public.
Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) is one of the best stocks to buy now, with 59 hedge funds having a stake in the company, according to Insider Monkey’s database for Q2 2024. There is also a consensus on the stock’s Buy rating among Street analysts, who expect a 2% upside in its share price in the coming months.
Overall, MCO ranks 8th among the Buffett Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks for 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of MCO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MCO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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>>> Arthur J. Gallagher Sustains Its Acquisition Spree, Bolsters Portfolio
Zacks Equity Research
December 19, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arthur-j-gallagher-sustains-acquisition-154400984.html
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. AJG recently acquired M.J. Schuetz Insurance Services Inc. The terms of the deal have been kept under wraps.
Indianapolis, IN-based Schuetz Insurance provides property and casualty, surety and bonding services across the Midwest with industry expertise in construction, landscaping, manufacturing and real estate.
The addition of Schuetz is expected to enhance the retail brokerage operations of Arthur J. Gallagher in the Midwest.
AJG also acquired Austin, TX-based Howe Insurance Group LLC, which is doing business as DMc Insurance Partners in December 2024. DMc Insurance Partners seems to be a prudent pick by AJG since it is a personal lines-focused insurance agency that caters to small business owners across Austin.
With this acquisition, Arthur J. Gallagher will leverage the strong capabilities of DMc Insurance Partners to strengthen the personal lines and small business capabilities of AJG in the market.
Arthur J. Gallagher has an impressive inorganic story with buyouts in the Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Since Jan. 1, 2002, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) insurance broker had acquired 725 companies so far. Revenue growth rates generally ranged from 5% to 15% for 2024 acquisitions.
The company completed 27 new brokerage mergers, totaling $173.9 million of estimated annualized revenues in the first nine months of 2024. The company is growing through mergers and acquisitions, most of which are within its Brokerage segment. AJG has a strong merger pipeline of more than 100 companies representing about $1.5 billion of annualized revenues. Of these 60 term sheets are signed or being prepared, representing about $700 million of annualized revenues.
A solid capital position ensuring continuous cash inflow supports AJG in its growth initiatives. It remains focused on continuing its tuck-in mergers and acquisitions. The insurer continues to expect about $3 billion of capacity to fund M&A in 2024 and $4 billion in 2025 using only free cash and incremental borrowings.
In December 2024, AJG also agreed to acquire AssuredPartners. Pending customary regulatory approvals, the transaction is expected to be completed during the first quarter of 2025. By integrating AssuredPartners, the acquirer is expected to further expand Gallagher's retail middle-market property and casualty and employee benefits focus across the United States, build on new business opportunities by leveraging Gallagher's expertise, data and analytics and expansive product offerings.
The move will further reinforce Gallagher's capabilities across multiple niche practice groups and create opportunities for Gallagher's wholesale, reinsurance and claims management businesses.
AJG also acquired Sheila J. Butler & Company, Dawson & Keenan Insurance Ltd. and Hann Insurance Brokers Pty Ltd. in December 2024. Financial details of all these deals are yet to be disclosed. These transactions are expected to expand AJG's retail brokerage capabilities, provide growth opportunities for retail brokerage operations, enhance the existing benefits consulting capabilities and expand the geographical footprint.
The brokerage insurer’s revenues are geographically diversified with strong domestic and international operations, with international operations contributing about one-third of revenues. Arthur J. Gallagher’s long-term growth strategies should help it deliver organic revenue improvement and pursue strategic mergers and acquisitions. AJG is focused on productivity improvements and quality enhancements that should help it post sturdy numbers in the future...
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>>> Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chubb-limited-cb-best-cash-174408177.html
Operating Cash Flow (TTM): $14.8 billion
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) ranks third on our list of the best cash-rich stocks that pay dividends. The insurance company offers a wide range of related products and services to its consumers. Insurance stocks are notable for their robust pricing power, which remains strong regardless of economic conditions. After catastrophic losses, insurers can raise premiums, and even when claims are lower, they can justify increases by highlighting future risks. In essence, insurers function as reliable, profit-generating entities.
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) stands out due to its focus on high-income customers, particularly in the homeowner insurance sector. Wealthier individuals are less likely to change their spending habits or default on bills and premiums during mild economic downturns, offering greater stability for the company. In the third quarter of 2024, the company reported a net income of $2.32 billion, which showed a 13.8% growth from the same period last year. The stock has returned by over 21% since the start of 2024.
In Q3, Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) reported an operating cash flow of $4.55 billion, and its trailing twelve-month operating cash flow comes in at $14.8 billion. This solid cash position has allowed the company to raise its payouts for 31 consecutive years. Its quarterly dividend comes in at $0.91 per share for a dividend yield of 1.32%, as recorded on December 16.
The London Company made the following comment about CB in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
Initiated: Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) – CB engages in the provision of commercial and personal property and casualty insurance, personal accident and health (A&H), reinsurance, and life insurance. While the company is headquartered outside the U.S., roughly 2/3 of its profits are generated in the U.S. with Asian markets representing another 20% of earnings. CB has a portfolio of top-performing, multibillion-dollar businesses that have substantial scale and yet potential for growth. CB has a culture of superior underwriting discipline, and management has a strong track record of expense control. CB also has a well-balanced mix of business by customer and product, with extensive distribution channels. We are attracted to CB’s globally diversified business model, superior underwriting and expense management, consistent and best-in-class profitability, upside potential from growth in Asia, and the potential to benefit from higher interest rates in its investment portfolio.
As per Insider Monkey's database of Q3 2024, 51 hedge funds held stakes in Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB), growing from 46 in the preceding quarter. These stakes are worth over $10 billion in total. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owned the largest stake in the company, valued at $7.8 billion.
Overall CB ranks 3rd on our list of the cash-rich dividend stocks to invest in now. While we acknowledge the potential of CB as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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>>> BlackRock acquires HPS for $12 billion, taking it deeper into private credit
Yahoo Finance
by David Hollerith
12-3-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/blackrock-acquires-hps-for-12-billion-taking-it-deeper-into-private-credit/ar-AA1vchRc?ocid=TobArticle
BlackRock (BLK) just made a $12 billion bet that will take it deeper into the hottest trade on Wall Street: private credit.
The world’s largest money manager announced Tuesday it would pay that much in stock to acquire HPS Investment Partners, a firm run by three ex-employees of Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) that specializes in lending money to riskier companies.
"Private markets are no longer a separate or standalone exposure for investors," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told analysts during an investor call on Tuesday morning. "The blending of public and private in today's reality is a part of the entire market of today."
BlackRock's stock was up roughly 1% Tuesday morning.
Private credit — which accounts for all debt that is not issued or traded publicly — is a loosely defined market that mushroomed over the past decade due in large part to higher interest rates and regulations that forced banks to retrench from their own leveraged lending.
The market is now worth roughly $1.6 trillion compared with $41 billion in 2000, according to Preqin. The sum is still small compared to the total loans held by US banks — over $12.5 trillion.
BlackRock, which oversees $11.5 trillion in assets, and other money management giants have been making aggressive expansions into these private markets and, in some cases, teaming up to compete for that business.
One such alliance is between Citigroup (C) and Apollo Global Management (APO), which have announced a $25 billion private credit fund focused on direct lending. It is the biggest lending partnership yet between a private financial institution and a big bank. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
Related video: BlackRock 'Dialing Up Risk Taking' on US Equities: Wei Li (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is among those who have raised some concerns about private credit's growth, arguing that it creates more opportunities to let risks outside the regulated banking system go unmonitored.
"I do expect there to be problems," Dimon said at a Bernstein industry conference at the end of May, adding that "there could be hell to pay" if retail investors in such funds experience deep losses.
The HPS deal is BlackRock's third sizable acquisition in 2024, and all involved a deeper push into alternative assets.
Earlier this year, it agreed to buy London data provider Preqin for $3.2 billion and private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners for about $12.5 billion.
The purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners, which closed in October, was a bet on growing demand for new energy, transportation, and digital infrastructure projects in the coming years.
HPS gives BlackRock a bigger platform to go after a slice of the private credit market, making BlackRock one of the world’s top private credit managers. It also gives BlackRock roughly $600 billion in total alternative assets, putting it in the same league as Apollo and KKR.
HPS was founded by three former Goldman employees, Scott Kapnick, Scot French, and Mike Patterson, who started the firm in 2007 as a private equity and credit division within JPMorgan Chase's asset management unit.
HPS separated from the bank through a buyout in March 2016 as JPMorgan backed away from riskier loans due to tighter regulations imposed in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
As of September, HPS managed $148 billion in client assets.
BlackRock and HPS will form a new private financing solutions business unit led by Kapnick, French, and Patterson. Those three men will all join BlackRock's executive committee. Combined, the two firms would have a private credit franchise overseeing $220 billion in assets.
"Today marks an important milestone in our drive to become the world's leading provider of private financing solutions," said Kapnick, HPS's CEO. "Our partnership with BlackRock will further strengthen our position in this fast growing but increasingly competitive market."
One big opportunity from the combination is the chance to “cross-sell” private credit products from HPS to “BlackRock’s large installed base of insurance client,” Ana Arsov, Moody's Ratings global head of private credit, said in emailed comments.
The companies expect the deal to close in mid-2025 "subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions."
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>>> Concerns About Credit Risk in SRTs Are Growing
Bloomberg
by Neil Callanan, Laura Noonan, Tasos Vossos and Nina Trentmann
November 16, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/concerns-credit-risk-srts-growing-200000839.html
(Bloomberg) -- Market participants are growing increasingly concerned about the credit risk from significant risk transfers, a type of capital relief for banks, amid warnings from watchdogs that they could pose a risk to financial stability.
A series of surveys show respondents have been negative or neutral since June on credit risk across multiple types of SRTs in the US and Europe, according to Structured Credit Investor, a financial information provider.
Global watchdogs have been monitoring the risk transfers because of the danger that the transactions, which are often bought by private credit funds, could make banks look stronger than they are. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank have been discussing the market as part of a larger dialogue on the nexus of risk between traditional lenders and non-banks, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
Banks use SRTs to offload part of the risk of credit losses from corporate and consumer loans, shifting that exposure to investors in return for regular payments. That frees up capital for the traditional lenders to lend in more profitable areas. Outstanding SRTs globally have reached around $70 billion, according to Chorus Capital Management, compared with around $50 billion a year ago.
The BOE’s Prudential Regulatory Authority is closely monitoring the risk transfers because of their growth but has yet to see anything troubling, the person with knowledge of the matter said. So far, losses have been modest and none of the UK transactions has seen banks taking a hit, they said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters.
Barclays Plc, for example, has only claimed about £250 million ($317 million) in credit losses on portfolios subject to risk transfer deals since 2016, the lender disclosed at the end of the second quarter.
Still, “such structures retain substantial risk within the banking system but with lower capital coverage,” the International Monetary Fund warned in a report last month.
New Investors
A surge in the number of new investors looking at the space is causing risk premiums to fall, meaning buyers are being paid less for taking on risk that some have less expertise in analyzing.
Spreads are now so tight that some private credit managers are opting to invest in collateralized loan obligation equity instead, according to a partner at one SRT investor. CLO equity holders receive cash flows that are left over after other investors in the structures are paid.
Huntington Bancshares Inc. issued an SRT earlier this year to optimize its balance sheet rather than reduce credit risk, Chief Financial Officer Zach Wasserman said in an interview.
“It was really just this goal of both accelerating lending and increasing capital during 2023 and 2024,” he said. Use of SRTs by the firm will be “tactical and opportunistic” going forward, he said, adding this year’s deal was done because it was “incredibly” efficient from a cost of capital perspective.
But that may not be the case for much longer, S&P Global Ratings said in a report this month.
“As SRT supply increases, transaction pricing may not remain as favorable to issuers as it has been so far this year,” according to the bond grader.
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Chubb - >>> The Oracle of Omaha can't stop buying shares of a high-flying financial leader
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-warren-buffett-sold-26-090600786.html
Though Warren Buffett has been a very selective buyer for two years, there is one stock he's spent even more money purchasing over the last year than his favorite stock, Berkshire Hathaway. I'm talking about market-leading property & casualty insurer Chubb (NYSE: CB).
On rare occasion, Buffett will request confidential treatment for one or more securities, which keeps these securities from being listed in Berkshire Hathaway's quarterly 13Fs. Being granted confidential treatment by regulators allows Buffett and his top investment advisors to build sizable stakes in public companies at a lower cost basis. When investors find out which stock(s) Buffet and his team have been buying, it's not uncommon for them to pile in and drive up the share price.
Between July 1, 2023 and March 30, 2024, Berkshire Hathaway was granted confidential treatment for its position in Chubb. On May 15, Berkshire's 13F spilled the beans on this position, which stands at north of 27 million shares, as of June 30, and is currently worth about $7.8 billion.
Since Chubb's initial public offering (IPO) in 1984, shares of the company have skyrocketed by 33,000%, inclusive of dividends.
The lure of top-tier insurance stocks like Chubb is the predictability of their cash flow and their premium pricing power. Catastrophe losses and adverse events are inevitable, which affords insurers the ability to raise premiums after these events, as well as during periods of lower-than-expected claims.
To add to the above, some of Chubb's insurance products are geared toward high-earning clientele. For instance, its homeowner insurance solutions are prominently focused on high-value homes. The advantage of targeting high-income clientele is that their spending habits, including their ability to pay their bills, doesn't change much, if at all, during minor economic downturns.
Don't overlook the positive role that higher Treasury yields have played for Chubb, either. Insurance companies almost always invest their float, which is the portion of premium collected that isn't disbursed as a claim, in ultra-safe, short-term Treasury bills. Even with the Fed kicking off a rate-easing cycle, short-term T-bill yields are considerably higher than where they were three years ago. This means more interest income for Chubb.
Lastly, Warren Buffett is a huge fan of robust capital-return programs. In May, Chubb's board increased the company's base annual payout for a 31st consecutive year. Further, Chubb has been consistently buying back its common stock since the start of 2017, which has reduced its outstanding share count by 13.6%. Spending billions of dollars on buybacks is lifting Chubb's earnings per share (EPS) and incrementally increasing the ownership stakes of existing shareholders, like Berkshire Hathaway.
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>>> Why Basel III regulations are poised to shake up the gold market
European banks face beefed up liquidity requirements under the “Net Stable Funding Ratio’ on Monday
MarketWatch
by Myra P. Saefong
June 26, 2021
(excerpt) ----> ...In its essence, Basel III is a multiyear regime change that aims to prevent another global banking crisis, by requiring banks to hold more stable assets and fewer ones deemed risky.
Under the new regime, physical, or allocated, gold, like bars and coins, will be reclassified from a tier 3 asset, the riskiest asset class, to a tier 1 zero-risk weight —putting it “right alongside with cash and currencies as an asset class,” said Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group.
Since physical gold will have a risk-free status, this could cause banks around the world to continue to buy more, Koos said, adding that central banks already have stepped up purchases of physical gold to be held in the institutions’ vaults, and not held in unallocated, or paper form.
Allocated gold is owned directly by an investor, in physical form, such as coins or bars. Unallocated gold, or paper contracts, often are owned by banks, but investors are entitled to that gold, and avoid storage and delivery fees.
Under the new rules, paper gold would be classified as more risky than physical gold, and no longer counted as an asset equal to gold bars or coins. <<<
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-basel-iii-regulations-are-poised-to-shake-up-the-gold-market-11624561325
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>>> Justice Department Sues Visa, Alleges Illegal Monopoly in Debit-Card Payments
The Wall Street Journal
by Dave Michaels, Angel Au-Yeung
9-24-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/justice-department-sues-visa-alleges-illegal-monopoly-in-debit-card-payments/ar-AA1r8huJ?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The Justice Department sued Visa on Tuesday on allegations that it illegally monopolized the market for consumer payments worth trillions of dollars every year, a sweeping antitrust complaint that seeks to open the debit-card market to new competition.
Visa used carrots and sticks to keep potential competitors off its turf and to punish merchants that did business with rivals, the lawsuit said. Fearing that tech companies would deploy cheaper alternatives for sending money from bank accounts, Visa paid companies such as Apple to limit their innovation and sought to undermine startups that tried to compete, the department alleged.
Visa, which operates the largest card network in the U.S., sits at the center of many consumers’ daily payments by providing the infrastructure that debit- and credit-card payments run on. The case underscores the essential nature of Visa’s platform: consumers have moved further away from cash in favor of card payments.
The complaint, filed in Manhattan federal court, alleged that Visa has monopolized the debit-card market since 2012.
To keep its share of transactions high, Visa punished merchants by levying higher fees if they routed some transactions to another card network, the Justice Department said. Consumers are also losers from the arrangement, the government said, because card fees can prompt merchants to recoup the costs by raising prices for goods and services.
“Visa has unlawfully amassed the power to extract fees that far exceed what it could charge in a competitive market,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said. “Visa’s unlawful conduct affects not just the price of one thing—but the price of nearly everything.”
Visa General Counsel Julie Rottenberg said the lawsuit “ignores the reality that Visa is just one of many competitors in a debit space that is growing, with entrants who are thriving.”
Rottenberg added: “We are proud of the payments network we have built, the innovation we advance and the economic opportunity we enable. This lawsuit is meritless, and we will defend ourselves vigorously.”
The company’s market share in debit payments is about 60%, and it earns about $7 billion a year in debit-swipe fees, according to the Justice Department. It dwarfs the other players in debit-card services, which include Mastercard, American Express and Discover Financial Services. For nearly two decades, Visa has been at the center of complaints from merchants, lawmakers and regulators over its dominance in the payments industry.
Under the Biden administration, the Justice Department’s antitrust division has been targeting middlemen that enjoy a lucrative cut of transaction fees. It sued Live Nation Entertainment in May, alleging that the owner of Ticketmaster thwarted competition that could have brought down fees levied on ticket prices. The department filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple in March. Part of that case targeted fees that Apple charges to process credit-card transactions initiated when consumers pay with their iPhones.
Visa and other major networks, including Mastercard, have been concerned about increased competition from newer payment firms in the fintech industry. Visa tried in 2020 to buy Plaid, a financial-software provider, but the Justice Department sued to block that deal, accusing Visa of attempting to take out a nascent competitor.
The government said in its lawsuit over the Visa-Plaid deal that the smaller company was a threat to Visa’s grip in online debit transactions. Plaid planned to compete with Visa to offer online debit services and stood to drive down prices for consumers, the Justice Department alleged at the time.
Visa abandoned the transaction in January 2021, a few months after the Justice Department sued. In 2022, Visa acquired Tink, a Swedish fintech startup that does much of what Plaid offers.
Visa’s share price fell around 5% on Tuesday.
In the new lawsuit, the department alleged that Visa made illegal incentive payments to such technology companies as Apple and Amazon.com to stay out of the market. It threatened the fintech companies PayPal and Square, part of the company now known as Block, with exorbitant fees if they introduced alternatives for sending money using payment networks other than Visa’s, the government said.
Visa’s deal with Apple says the iPhone maker can’t deploy payment technology that would compete with Visa or prod consumers to move away from Visa cards, according to the lawsuit. In return, “Visa shares its monopoly profits with Apple,” the Justice Department said, describing “massive” payments without specifying how much.
A former Visa chief financial officer summed up the strategy in a message cited in lawsuit: “Everybody is a friend and partner. Nobody is a competitor.”
Visa sometimes cooperated with startups such as Square, but threatened to terminate contracts if its partners went too far in competing with the card network.
After signing one such contract with Square in 2014, a Visa executive said, “We’ve got Square on a short leash,” according to the lawsuit.
The lawsuit is asking a court to order that Visa cease several anticompetitive practices, but doesn’t demand that the company be broken up.
The Justice Department said Visa has a practice of offering volume discounts to merchants that is illegal under antitrust laws. The tactic discourages merchants from routing transactions through other card networks that are often less expensive, the department said.
Federal law requires that merchants have the ability to choose from at least two unaffiliated debit-card networks to process transactions. But Visa would penalize merchants who pick another payment network by charging higher fees on all transactions processed on Visa’s payment networks, according to the lawsuit.
The complaint said Visa isn’t restrained by a cap on fees that merchants pay banks to process debit transactions. Those so-called interchange fees are paid by merchants to banks and other financial institutions that issue cards. That law didn’t cap the fees that Visa charges to businesses for its role in processing payments.
The lawsuit could take several years to resolve, meaning it will be inherited by a new administration next year. Though Republicans have taken a more limited approach to antitrust enforcement, a Donald Trump win in November might not necessarily affect the government’s willingness to litigate. The department’s suit to block Visa from buying Plaid came when Trump was president.
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Apollo / Intel - >>> Apollo to Offer Multibillion-Dollar Investment in Intel
Bloomberg
by Liana Baker, Ryan Gould and Ian King
September 22, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apollo-offer-multibillion-dollar-investment-205009294.html
(Bloomberg) -- Apollo Global Management Inc. has offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel Corp., according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that would be a vote of confidence in the chipmaker’s turnaround strategy.
The alternative asset manager has indicated in recent days it would be willing to make an equity-like investment of as much as $5 billion in Intel, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Intel executives have been weighing Apollo’s proposal, the people said.
Nothing has been finalized, the size of the potential investment could change and discussions could fall through, resulting in no deal, the people added.
The development comes as San Diego-based Qualcomm Inc. floats a friendly takeover of Intel, people with knowledge of the matter said on Saturday, raising the prospect of one of the biggest-ever M&A deals.
Representatives for Apollo and Intel declined to comment.
Under Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger, Intel has been working on an expensive plan to remake itself and bring in new products, technology and outside customers. That initiative has led to a series of worsening earnings reports that have undermined confidence in the initiative and knocked tens of billions of dollars off its market value. While Apollo may best be known today for its insurance, buyout and credit strategies, the firm started out in the 1990s as a distressed-investing specialist.
The companies already have a relationship. Santa Clara, California-based Intel agreed in June to sell a stake in a joint venture that controls a plant in Ireland for $11 billion to Apollo, bringing in more external funding for a massive expansion of its factory network.
Apollo also has other experience in the chipmaking space. Last year, the New York-based firm agreed to lead a $900 million investment in Western Digital Corp., buying convertible preferred stock.
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BAC - >>> Warren Buffett Just Sold Another $3.1 Billion Worth of One of Berkshire Hathaway's Largest Holdings. Here's Why.
Decoding Warren Buffett's stake reductions in Apple, BofA
Motley Fool
by Adam Levy
Sep 9, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-just-sold-another-220100936.html
Warren Buffett hasn't seen a lot to like in the stock market in quite some time. In each of the last seven quarters, Buffett sold more stock from Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio than new purchases. And it looks like he's about to make it a full two years.
Last quarter, Buffett cut his company's massive position in Apple nearly in half. It was, by far, the biggest stock sale in the history of Berkshire Hathaway, amounting to roughly $72.6 billion. This quarter, Buffett has turned his attention to Berkshire's second-largest holding. At least, it used to be.
While we normally have to wait until Berkshire's quarterly filings with the SEC to see what moves the Oracle of Omaha and his team are making in the company's portfolio, there are some special exceptions. When an investor owns more than 10% of a publicly traded company, it must publicly report every stock purchase or sale within three days. That's why we know Buffett's been selling Berkshire's stake in Bank of America.
After selling $3.8 billion worth of the stock between July 17 and Aug. 1, Buffett sold another $3.1 billion in late August and early September. The value of Berkshire's holding has gone from $41.1 billion at the end of the second quarter to about $34 billion today.
Here's why Buffett may be selling Bank of America stock.
Making a bank withdrawal
At last year's Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett expressed his concerns about the banking industry. This was right after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and Buffett expressed the idea that banking has changed substantially over the decades and will continue to change. The Silicon Valley bank run demonstrates that in the digital age, a bank run can happen in a matter of seconds. "If people think that deposits are sticky anymore, they're just living in a different era," he said.
Later, Buffett explained it's impossible to predict how the banking industry will change due to competing incentives from politicians, big bankers, consumers, and practically any other economic actor. But he said he does like one bank — Bank of America. "I like the management," he said.
He added a note about Berkshire's stock holding as well. "I proposed the deal with them, so I stick with it."
It's one thing to stick with a stock because you like the business and the management. It's another to stick with it out of loyalty to a decision made over a decade ago. Perhaps Buffett recognized that fallacy earlier this year as he turned his focus to taking gains on some of his biggest investments
As mentioned, Buffett sold a huge amount of Apple stock earlier this year. His reasoning, as he explained at this year's shareholder meeting, was his expectation that corporate tax rates will increase in the near future. It's better to take the gains now and pay the tax bill.
Of course, that only makes sense if the stock is trading for what Buffett asserts is its intrinsic value (or greater). So, he wouldn't liquidate everything Berkshire holds. He may have sold Bank of America stock this quarter as its valuation has climbed, and he holds a significant gain on the stock. He bought a good portion of Berkshire's Bank of America holdings for just $7.14 per share. The average sales price so far this quarter has been $41.25. On 150 million shares, that's over $5 billion in realized gains.
Should investors sell with Buffett?
Bank of America stock has performed well this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates. It looks like those rate cuts are finally coming to fruition, with the Fed expected to announce its first rate cut since 2020 later this month.
The bank suffered amid rising interest rates due to holding bonds on its balance sheet with longer-than-average durations. As such, the value of those bonds declined as the Fed raised rates. Meanwhile, Bank of America was stuck holding low-interest bonds while the market forced it to pay higher short-term interest rates. As a result, net interest income declined considerably.
But management believes it's hit a trough on net interest income, and the metric should start turning around next year. Bank of America should see an outsized benefit from declining interest rates as it still holds many long-duration bonds.
Furthermore, Buffett's concern about how "sticky" deposits are with the bank is less of a factor for Bank of America, considering its one of the biggest banks in the country, making it a Global Systemically Important Bank, G-SIB. That status gives depositors much more confidence in the bank and the systems protecting it.
The stock currently trades around its five-year average price to tangible book value, indicating it's probably fairly valued. Thus, it makes sense for Buffett to take advantage of the currently low tax rate, but investors interested in bank stocks may have a good opportunity to buy a great bank well positioned for declining interest rates.
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>>> State Street, Apollo Propose Private Credit ETF
by DJ Shaw
Sep 11, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/state-street-apollo-propose-private-181436775.html
State Street Global Advisors and Apollo Global Management are collaborating to introduce a private credit ETF that would offer retail investors access to private credit markets, according to a Tuesday Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
The proposed SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF would invest in a mix of public and private investment-grade debt securities, marking one of the first attempts to package private credit investments into an ETF wrapper, the filing said.
The proposed ETF comes as major asset managers seek ways to make private market investments more accessible to individual investors. Private credit has seen rapid growth in recent years but has largely been limited to institutional investors.
The State Street-Apollo product fund would invest at least 80% of its assets in investment-grade debt, including both public credit-related and private credit investments sourced by Apollo, according to the prospectus. Up to 20% could be allocated to high-yield bonds, the filing said.
Private Credit Innovation
A key feature of the proposed private credit ETF is Apollo’s promise to provide daily pricing for the private investments it sources, the filing said. This approach aims to make traditionally illiquid private credit more tradable, potentially attracting investors interested in this market.
The fund aims to provide income and maximize returns while managing risk by actively investing in U.S. investment-grade bonds, according to the prospectus. These may include government and corporate bonds, securitized loans, mortgage-backed securities, and other debt instruments.
The filing did not specify a proposed ticker symbol or expense ratio, and the new fund would still require regulatory approval before coming to market.
As of June 30, New York-based Apollo had approximately $696 billion of assets under management, according to company data. State Street is the world’s fourth-largest asset manager with $4.4 trillion in assets. Its ETF business manages 138 funds accounting for $1.3 trillion in assets.
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>>> CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ) provides financial, insurance, and advisory services in the United States and Canada. It operates through Financial Services, Benefits and Insurance Services, and National Practices segments.
The Financial Services segment offers accounting and tax, financial advisory, valuation, risk and advisory, and government healthcare consulting services.
The Benefits and Insurance Services segment provides employee benefits consulting, payroll/human capital management, property and casualty insurance, and retirement and investment services.
The National Practices segment offers information technology managed networking and hardware, and health care consulting services.
The company primarily serves small and medium-sized businesses, as well as individuals, governmental entities, and not-for-profit enterprises. CBIZ, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Independence, Ohio.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CBZ/profile/
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>>> Mastercard (MA) is a payment processing company with a total of around 3.4 billion debit and credit cards issued worldwide. The business is one of two dominant payment companies in the world with the other being Visa, and had a market share of 27.4% in the U.S. back in 2022, up from its five-year average of 22%, according to Nilson Report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-magnificent-stocks-im-never-091000164.html
Mastercard boasts solid financials with revenue rising from $18.9 billion in 2021 to $25.1 billion in 2023. Net income jumped from $8.7 billion to $11.2 billion over the same period, and the business is also highly free-cash-flow generative with an average of $9.9 billion churned out over the three years. Mastercard also increased its quarterly dividend by 16% year over year to $0.66 at the end of last year, representing more than a decade of consecutive dividend increases.
The strong performance has continued in the first half of 2024. Mastercard saw its revenue rise 10% year over year to $13.3 billion while net income shot up 20.4% year over year to $6.3 billion. The good results were attributed to robust consumer spending and a tourism rebound that saw cross-border transaction volume climb 17% year over year for the second quarter of 2024. Free cash flow came in at $4.1 billion, inching up 2.6% year over year from $4 billion in the previous comparative period.
With Mastercard's solid reputation and track record, I am confident that the business can continue to grow steadily over the years while increasing its dividends along the way.
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>>> StoneX Group Inc (SNEX). operates as a global financial services network that connects companies, organizations, traders, and investors to market ecosystem worldwide. The company operates through Commercial, Institutional, Retail, and Global Payments segments.
The Commercial segment provides risk management and hedging, exchange-traded and OTC products execution and clearing, voice brokerage, market intelligence, physical trading, and commodity financing and logistics services.
The Institutional segment offers equity trading services to institutional clients; clearing and execution services in futures exchanges; brokerage foreign exchange services for the financial institutions and professional traders; and OTC products, as well as originates, structures, and places debt instruments in capital markets. This segment also operates as an institutional dealer in fixed income securities to serve asset managers, commercial bank trust and investment departments, broker-dealers, and insurance companies, as well as engages in asset management business.
The Retail segment provides trading services and solutions in the global financial markets, including spot foreign exchange, precious metals trading, and contracts for differences; and wealth management services, as well as offers physical gold and other precious metals in various forms and denominations through Stonexbullion.com.
The Global Payments segment provides customized payment, technology, and treasury services to banks and commercial businesses, charities, and non-governmental and government organizations; and pricing and payments services.
The company was formerly known as INTL FCStone Inc. and changed its name to StoneX Group Inc. in July 2020. StoneX Group Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNEX/profile/
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Visa - >>> Want to Get Rich? Buy the Dip on This Dividend-Growth Stock and Never Sell
Motley Fool
by Brett Schafer
Aug 7, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/want-rich-buy-dip-dividend-113600317.html
There are two big schools of thought in investing. In one school, investors focus on growth, buying businesses they hope are much larger five, 10, or 20 years in the future. In the other school, investors search for yield, buying dividend-paying stocks to build passive income and a reliable cash-flow stream for their portfolios. Of course, there are more than just these two considerations when buying stocks, but growth and yield are two of the main factors.
Dividend-growth investing combines the best of both worlds. Dividend-growth stocks are ones that not only make regular cash payments to investors but also have a growing business that can fuel dividend growth over the long haul. The perfect dividend-growth stock might be Visa (NYSE: V), the global payments giant.
Today, you can buy shares for a 10% discount from the stock's all-time highs set earlier this year. Here's why now may be the time to buy the dip on Visa stock.
Visa: A take rate on global spending
Visa is a company most of you will know. It is the world's largest credit card, debit card, and payments network, serving 4.5 billion credit/debit cards as of last quarter. That is up from 4.2 billion in the same quarter a year ago. A huge percentage of the world's consumer spending runs on the Visa network, from the United States to Europe to emerging markets in Asia and Africa.
The business model works slightly differently than you might imagine. Even though Visa is the brand on a ton of cards, it's not actually a bank or credit issuer. Banking partners such as Bank of America or JPMorgan Chase are the ones taking credit risk. Visa makes money by taking a cut of every transaction spent on its network, which it then splits up and shares with its banking partners.
Visa's business is effectively a take rate on global economic growth. First, as global consumer spending grows, Visa's payment volume grows. Second, Visa benefits from the global transition of cash payments to cashless digital transactions. These are two simple tailwinds that have been in place for multiple decades and should continue in the coming decades as well.
Steady growth, inflation protection
If you look at Visa's financials over time, revenue keeps moving up and to the right. Excluding the pandemic period, when global spending ground to a halt, Visa's trailing-12-month revenue has grown at a steady clip for the last 10 years. Ten years ago, revenue was a tad over $12 billion. Over the past 12 months, it was $35 billion. I would expect this steady growth to continue over the next 10 years as well.
Operating profit has been even better. Visa has minimal variable costs on its network, meaning it earns high incremental profit margins when revenue grows. This leads to bottom-line profit margin expansion. Operating margin is now 67%, highlighting how amazing Visa's business model is. This margin should expand slightly over the next 10 years with incremental margins well over 90% on new payment-volume flows.
Don't forget inflation protection. Since Visa's revenue comes as a percent of payment volume on its network, it is one of the few businesses that benefits from inflation. Higher prices mean more money coming to Visa as an inherent inflation edge. It really is one of the best business models in the world. This is why payment volume grew from $10.4 trillion in 2021 to $12.3 trillion in 2023.
Why the dividend can keep growing
Okay, that is enough about the business model. What about the recent numbers? Last quarter, Visa's payment volume grew 7% year over year. However, due to faster growth from higher-margin cross-border volume and the growth of its analytics business, Visa's revenue grew 10% in the quarter to $8.9 billion. Net income grew 17% to $4.9 billion.
Over the long haul, I expect Visa's payment volume to grow at 5% to 10% annually from a combination of economic growth, inflation, and the transition to digital payments. Add in margin expansion and new revenue lines, and I think earnings can grow at over 10% per year.
This will mean tons of cash flow accumulating on Visa's balance sheet that it can return to shareholders in the form of dividends. At Tuesday's prices, Visa has a dividend yield of only 0.80%, but don't let that dissuade you. The dividend per share has grown by a whopping 1,800% since being instituted in 2009. At $2.01 over the last 12 months, the dividend per share is well below the $9.30 of free cash flow per share Visa generates.
A huge separation of free cash flow per share and dividend per share means that Visa has room to grow its dividend by 4 times even if its free cash flow per share doesn't grow. I still think it will grow by a large amount due to the revenue and earnings drivers highlighted above. Plus, management is now aggressively repurchasing stock. Shares outstanding have fallen by 11% in the last five years. Fewer shares outstanding mean more room to raise the dividend per share, all else being equal. It helps add some juice to free-cash-flow per-share growth.
Add everything together, and I believe Visa is the ultimate dividend-growth stock. Buy the dip on the dominant payments giant and watch the dividends pile up in your brokerage account over the next few decades.
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>>> Houlihan Lokey to Acquire Waller Helms Advisors
Business Wire
Aug 8, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/houlihan-lokey-acquire-waller-helms-123000333.html
Acquisition Substantially Enhances Firm’s Coverage Capabilities in Insurance and Wealth Management Sectors, Doubling Size of Financial Services Group
NEW YORK & CHICAGO, August 08, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (NYSE:HLI), the global investment bank, has agreed to acquire Waller Helms Advisors (Waller Helms), an independent advisory firm that provides investment banking services to clients in the insurance and wealth management sectors. The transaction, signed on August 6, 2024, confirms Houlihan Lokey as the premier investment banking advisor in these sectors and underlines the firm’s leadership across the global financial services sector. The deal is expected to be completed before December 31, 2024, following regulatory approvals.
Founded in 2014, Chicago-based Waller Helms provides advisory services in connection with mergers and acquisitions, private capital raising, and valuation services, advising clients primarily in the insurance and wealth management sectors. Since its founding, the firm has advised on more than 230 transactions with over $40 billion of aggregate value. Recent notable transactions include the sale of Century Equity Partners’ portfolio company, DOXA Insurance, to Goldman Sachs Asset Management; The Mather Group’s recapitalization by The Vistria Group; and BenefitMall’s sale to Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) on behalf of the Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG).
Waller Helms’ nearly 50 financial professionals, including 13 Managing Directors, will join Houlihan Lokey’s Financial Services Group. James Anderson, Chief Executive Officer of Waller Helms, will join as a Managing Director and Global Co-Head of the Financial Services Group alongside Jeffrey Levine, Global Head of Financial Services. In addition, John Waller and David Helms, Co-Founders of Waller Helms, will also join as Managing Directors to further support and enhance the firm’s coverage efforts for its clients across the financial services sector. The acquisition adds financial professionals in Chicago, New York, Miami, and the greater Atlanta area.
"The addition of this talented group of bankers is highly complementary to our Financial Services platform, adding meaningfully to our current coverage capabilities across numerous subsectors within insurance and wealth management. On a combined basis, the Group is now the number one advisor to clients in the insurance and wealth management sectors. We are delighted that the Waller Helms team is joining Houlihan Lokey and I look forward to partnering with James to lead the new team, now comprising nearly one hundred financial professionals," said Mr. Levine.
On a pro forma basis, and according to data from LSEG, the new combined group now ranks as the No. 1 advisor for all global M&A transactions in 2023 in the insurance sector; the asset management sector, including wealth management; and the financial services sector, excluding depositories.
"As we discussed a possible combination, it became clear that Houlihan Lokey shares our dedication to deep sector expertise and more importantly, a fierce dedication to client success," said Mr. Anderson. "It is this cultural compatibility and client-first ethos that makes this combination so compelling, and we’re excited to work with our new colleagues at Houlihan Lokey and continue delivering superior outcomes to clients."
"The addition of the Waller Helms team is exemplary of our desire to provide our clients with the greatest depth of sector expertise in the midcap space, alongside our market-leading private capital expertise, extensive relationships among financial sponsors, and other services," said Larry DeAngelo, Global Co-Head of Corporate Finance.
"Over the past ten years, we have built a talented and passionate team and have had the honor to assist incredible, best-in-class clients on industry-leading transactions. Houlihan Lokey is the ideal home for our team and clients to thrive for years to come," said Mr. Waller.
"The strength of Houlihan Lokey’s global platform and our shared philosophies on collaboration and attracting and developing the best talent in the industry has us truly excited about our collective opportunity," said Mr. Helms.
"We have known the Waller Helms team for many years, and their long track record of success in financial services advisory is truly impressive. We look forward to introducing our new partners to our global client base as we continue to grow and enhance our service offering in Corporate Finance," said Jay Novak, Global Co-Head of Corporate Finance.
About Houlihan Lokey
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (NYSE:HLI) is a global investment bank with expertise in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, financial restructuring, and financial and valuation advisory. Houlihan Lokey serves corporations, institutions, and governments worldwide with offices in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. Independent advice and intellectual rigor are hallmarks of the firm’s commitment to client success across its advisory services. The firm is the No. 1 investment bank for all global M&A transactions, the No. 1 M&A advisor for the past nine consecutive years in the U.S., the No. 1 global restructuring advisor for the past ten consecutive years, and the No. 1 global M&A fairness opinion advisor over the past 25 years, all based on number of transactions and according to data provided by LSEG (formerly Refinitiv).
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Chubb - >>> Berkshire Hathaway Added 26 Million Shares of This Stock in the Past 3 Quarters: Here's Why It's a Smart Buy Today
by Courtney Carlsen
Motley Fool
Aug 3, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-added-26-million-222400906.html
Since becoming CEO at Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, Warren Buffett has delivered 19.8% compound annual returns to investors, or enough to turn a $100 investment into $4.4 million today. Buffett's extended track record of success is one reason investors eagerly await the release of Berkshire's quarterly report showing the stocks the conglomerate bought and sold during the quarter.
Over the past three quarters, Berkshire Hathaway has bought shares of Chubb stock hand over fist and kept its buying confidential for two quarters. Berkshire owns 26 million shares of the insurer as of March 31, worth roughly $7.2 billion today. Here's why Chubb is a smart buy for investors today.
Why Buffett is drawn to insurance investments
Buffett loves the insurance industry, going back to his days as a student at Columbia Business School. At the time, Buffett learned under Benjamin Graham, who invested in GEICO in 1948. It was one of the best-performing assets during Graham's career.
When Buffett acquired Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, it was a failing textile company that was barely staying afloat. In 1967, Berkshire acquired the insurer National Indemnity, which Buffett credits as a turning point in Berkshire Hathaway's history.
Insurance companies' cash flows make them appealing investments, which is why Buffett continues to invest heavily in them. A few years ago, Berkshire Hathaway acquired Alleghany for $11.6 billion, adding to its list of insurance companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway, including GEICO, National Indemnity, Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group, and Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group.
Chubb is one of the largest and best at managing risk
Chubb is one of the world's largest property and casualty insurance companies and underwrites various policies, including personal automotive, homeowners, accident and health, agriculture, and reinsurance.
The company has an excellent risk management history, which you can observe by its combined ratio. This essential insurance metric is the sum of claims costs (how much an insurance company pays out on a policy) and expenses (like employee compensation or fixed overhead) divided by the premiums the company collects.
Over the past two decades, Chubb's average combined ratio was 90.8%, well below the industry average of 100%. This matters because it translates into free cash flow, which the company uses to pay dividends, buy back shares, or invest in things like bonds and stocks. Chubb's solid growth is why it has raised its dividend payout for 31 consecutive years.
Another benefit of investing in insurance is the timing of cash flows. Insurers collect premiums upfront and pay out claims down the road. In the time between, the company can invest this money, known as "float," usually in short-term Treasury bills. As policies expire, companies keep their profits and can build an extensive investment portfolio over time.
Chubb has a $113 billion investment portfolio primarily invested in fixed-income securities. Last year, it earned $4.9 billion in investment income, up 32% year over year, and its yield on average invested assets improved from 3.4% to 4.2% as it benefited from rising interest rates. Through the first six months of 2024, Chubb's net investment income has increased another 27% from last year.
Chubb is well positioned
The Federal Reserve is projected to cut interest rates sometime this year and into next, which could negatively impact Chubb's investment portfolio in the short term. However, some longtime market participants think interest rates could stay elevated.
For example, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management has described a "sea change," saying, "For various reasons, the Fed is not going to go back to the ultra-low interest rates over the last 13 years" in a 2023 interview on the Motley Fool Money podcast. If that's the case, insurers like Chubb will benefit by earning more interest income than was possible in the decade and a half prior.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also cautioned that "there are still multiple inflationary forces in front of us" due to fiscal deficits, rising interest rates, and stubbornly high inflation. Chubb is already a solid company to own, and if inflationary pressures persist, it has the pricing power to adapt to rising costs, giving it stellar potential for the next decade and beyond.
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>>> Private equity giant Apollo invests $700 million in Sony Music
Reuters
Jul 26, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-equity-giant-apollo-invests-132347037.html
(Reuters) - Private equity behemoth Apollo Global Management has invested $700 million in high-profile record label Sony Music Group, allowing its clients an opportunity to invest in "high grade" alternative assets.
Apollo did not reveal the terms of the deal with Sony, which works with artists such as Lil Nas X and Celine Dion.
Booming demand for alternative investments has boosted the appeal of the music industry as investors look beyond traditional assets such as stocks and bonds, making it a popular asset class for Wall Street firms in recent years.
Heavyweights of the financial world are cashing in on the lucrative streaming rights and cash flows the industry offers.
"This investment allows our clients to invest in high grade securities while helping Sony to execute its business plans," said Jamshid Ehsani, a partner at Apollo said on Friday.
Apollo had also backed media and entertainment-focused investment firm HarbourView Equity Partners in 2021.
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>>> Why regional banks are now willing to take billions in losses
Yahoo Finance
by David Hollerith
Jul 29, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-regional-banks-are-now-willing-to-take-billions-in-losses-123009272.html
More US regional banks are taking a step that was unthinkable more than a year ago in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure: selling underwater bonds at a loss.
When Silicon Valley Bank did it, it spurred a panic among investors and depositors.
The difference this time around is that regional banks aren’t selling lower-yielding securities to pay depositors. Instead they are preparing for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Some cash from these sales is being used to buy new bonds that lenders hope will perform well as rates come down in the coming months or years. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates as early as September.
“If they’ve got extra cash, bank treasurers who think we’re at the top of the cycle may decide to go ahead and lock in long-duration bonds so that once we’re in a lower-rate environment they still have a decent yield,” Feddie Strickland, an equity research analyst with Hovde Group, said.
Locking in 'the swoosh'
Regional banks that announced bond sales in recent weeks include Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group and Charlotte-based Truist (TFC), two of the top 10 biggest lenders in the US, along with Regions (RF) and Webster (WBS). More are expected to do the same.
PNC took a half-billion dollars in losses on its bond sales and reinvented the proceeds into securities with yields "approximately 400 basis points higher than the securities sold," according to the bank.
That raised the bank's confidence that it would reap a record amount of net interest income next year. Such income measures the difference between what a bank earns from its assets and pays out on its deposits — a critical source of revenue for any regional bank.
One analyst on PNC’s second quarter earnings conference call said the uptick over the next year looked like Nike’s "swoosh" logo.
"Essentially, what we've done is locked in some of the swoosh," PNC CFO Robert Reilly told analysts.
PNC's decision to realize bond losses didn’t impact earnings, thanks to a one-time stock gain it recorded from its Visa (V) holdings.
Other banks are choosing to take these bond losses even when they aren't able to offset them with one-time quarterly gains.
Truist took a $5.1 billion after-tax loss when it sold bonds that yielded a measly 2.80%.
It used some of the proceeds — $29.3 billion — to buy new bonds yielding 5.27%. The bank now expects its net interest income to be 2% to 3% higher next quarter.
Regions also took a $50 million pre-tax loss to replace approximately $1 billion of bonds.
The CFO of the Birmingham, Ala.-based bank, David Turner, called the "repositioning" move a "good use of capital" and said Regions may look for chances to do more bond sales.
Another bank that sold some underwater bonds was Webster, based in Stamford, Conn. It took a $38.7 million after-tax loss in the quarter from realizing those losses.
Despite replacing more of its bonds with higher-yielding ones, the bank lowered its net interest income expectations for the year by $60 million to $80 million, predicting higher deposit costs and lower yields from its loans.
"We missed the mark on the guidance, obviously, and we're not pleased with it," Webster CFO Glenn MacInnes told analysts Tuesday.
When the rate cycle changes
Not all regional banks are making such moves. And the direction of interest rates remains a thorny challenge for many regional lenders still struggling with high deposit costs, troubled borrowers, and lackluster profits.
A reminder of those challenges came again this week when commercial real estate lender New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported a second quarter loss, the sale of a mortgage-serving business, and disclosed that it had added more to its reserves for future loan losses.
Its stock fell Thursday after reporting the loss but recovered on Friday. It remains one of the worst-performing stocks of the year, a sign that investors are still concerned about the exposure of some regional banks to commercial real estate weaknesses.
The hope for many regional banks is that the loans on bank balance sheets will recover their value as rates come back down, and that deposit costs could drop too.
"When the rate cycle changes is going to have a big impact on what the profitability story looks like," said Moody's Ratings analyst Megan Fox.
How those dynamics play out will still vary a lot between banks. Thus buying new bonds now is one of the surest bets lenders can make ahead of the cuts they expect to happen.
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>>> Discount window reform bill introduced as Fed works on its own overhaul
Reuters
by Michael S. Derby
Jul 29, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/discount-window-reform-bill-introduced-143924570.html
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve efforts to overhaul a key emergency lending facility historically viewed with anxiety by banks are now being joined by potential congressional action.
On Friday, Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia introduced legislation to overhaul the Fed's discount window, a long-running tool that provides fast, collateralized loans to deposit-taking banks.
The Fed is already working to make sure banks are ready and willing to use the discount window, either in times of stress or if they simply face an unexpected liquidity shortfall. Banks have long shunned it, fearing that using it will send a signal of distress to their peers.
That long-standing stigma stood out in March 2023 when several banks ran into trouble and spurred fears about the overall state of the banking system. While discount window usage briefly surged, the Fed was concerned enough to launch a temporary lending facility with very generous terms that proved popular.
Since then Fed officials have been seeking to make sure banks are prepared to use the discount window and have signaled some confidence their efforts are working. Warner's bill could bolster that.
"The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last year highlighted the urgent need to reform the Federal Reserve's discount window for the 21st century economy, where bank runs can occur over hours, rather than days," Warner said in a statement. He said the bill will help surmount stigma issues and ensure the discount window can "meet the challenges of the digital age."
The bill would mandate all but the smallest banks test their discount window access and would require regulators to reflect banks' ability to use the facility when evaluating their liquidity.
The bill would compel the Fed to report on the stigma issue to Congress, addressing what further steps need to be taken to reduce banks' worries.
The discount window "has deficiencies that have led to severe stigma, increasing the risk of banking panics and deposit runs," former New York Fed President William Dudley said in Warner's statement announcing the bill. "This bill will provide a good basis for regulators to implement operational improvements and reduce frictions that hinder the effectiveness of [the] discount window."
Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, said the bill "gives the Fed clearer direction from its congressional overseers on how to pursue these liquidity reforms."
"This bill does not read as something designed to pick a fight with the Fed," Kelly said, as "it seems mostly simpatico with what they've already signaled."
A recent New York Fed paper said eliminating stigma may prove impossible and the central bank may have to rely on ad-hoc responses to liquidity problems.
Earlier this month Fed Chair Jerome Powell called discount window reform "a big, big project."
"We know that the infrastructure is a little tired," Powell said, but while work moves forward the Fed has "not made a lot of progress."
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan was more upbeat. Earlier this month she said more than 5,000 deposit-taking banks had done the paperwork needed to access the discount window, with banks having pledged $3 trillion in collateral for potential loans, up from $1 trillion last year.
Meanwhile, in a May interview, New York Fed President John Williams said the facility does the job when trouble strikes, its long-standing issues notwithstanding. When there's a "general market issue" it's clear banks will use it, and that's a positive for broader market stability, he said.
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Bank of America - >>> Warren Buffett Just Sold $1.5 Billion of Berkshire Hathaway's Second-Largest Holding. Here's Why.
Motley Fool
by Adam Levy
Jul 24, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-just-sold-1-081700022.html
Warren Buffett keeps selling stocks. The Oracle of Omaha has been a net seller of equities for his company's portfolio in each of the last six quarters, as reported by Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B). The odds are good he'll make it seven in a row when Berkshire reports next month, and now he's going for eight with another major stock sale.
A recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed that Buffett sold $1.5 billion of Berkshire Hathaway's second-largest equity holding, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). The sale represents just a 3.3% reduction in Berkshire's stake in the bank but could be just the start.
There's no doubt Bank of America has been a very successful investment for Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. And Buffett is famously quoted as saying his favorite investment holding period is "forever." So why is he selling shares now?
There are a few reasons Buffett might have sold Bank of America stock.
After the stock's strong performance over the last eight months, shares are currently trading at levels unseen since the start of 2022. Despite the strong financial and operational performance underlying that price appreciation, Buffett may believe the shares are now fully valued, so he's taking money off the table as a result.
Another reason may have less to do with the current valuation and more to do with locking in gains at a favorable tax rate. Buffett's cost basis on those Bank of America shares is just over $14, on average. That means over two-thirds of the proceeds from Buffett's sales are taxable gains.
Buffett hasn't been shy about taking gains on some of his favorite stocks lately. He sold billions worth of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares in the fourth and first quarters.
When asked why he sold Apple shares at the annual shareholder meeting in May, Buffett explained that he was happy to pay taxes at the current favorable tax rate of 21%. He expects the rate will increase in the future. However, he said he expects Apple to remain Berkshire Hathaway's largest equity holding for some time.
The same factors may have led him to take the tax hit on Bank of America shares now. That may suggest Buffett still likes the business and the stock but doesn't see it growing as quickly as it has in the recent past — at least not enough to justify paying higher taxes on the gains later.
Should you buy or sell Bank of America stock?
Bank of America saw its shares fall in price as interest rates climbed. That's because the bank has high exposure to longer-duration bonds, which currently carry low interest rates. As a result, the bank missed out on opportunities to buy securities with higher coupons as interest rates climbed.
Bank of America's decision to invest in longer-duration bonds has an outsized effect on a metric called net interest income (NII). That's the difference between the revenue generated by the bank's interest-bearing assets and the expense it pays on interest-bearing liabilities. Since the bank holds long-term bonds but has to pay market rates, NII declined as interest rates increased.
But management says NII has hit its trough. It's forecasting growth in the third and fourth quarters this year, reaching $14.5 billion in the fourth quarter.
The good news is Bank of America is poised to do well, relative to its peers if the Fed cuts interest rates (as it is expected to later this year). The knife cuts both ways, so to speak.
With a price-to-book value of 1.25, Bank of America's shares look fairly priced. Buffett's sale appears to be more about taxes than anything specific about the company or its stock.
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Private Equity - >>> Wall Street is divided over the rise of private credit
Yahoo Finance
by David Hollerith
Jun 16, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-is-divided-over-the-rise-of-private-credit-140058228.html
The debate on Wall Street about the rise of private credit is getting louder.
On one side is the boss of the largest US bank, Jamie Dimon, who argues that increased lending by private equity firms, money managers, and hedge funds creates more opportunities to let risks outside the regulated banking system go unmonitored.
"I do expect there to be problems," the JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO said at a Bernstein industry conference at the end of May, adding that "there could be hell to pay" if retail investors in such funds experience deep losses.
On the other side are top executives from some of the world’s biggest money managers who aren’t hesitating to push back on that argument.
"Every dollar that moves out of the banking industry and into the investment marketplace makes the system safer and more resilient and less leveraged," Marc Rowan, Apollo (APO) CEO, said at the same Bernstein conference attended by Dimon. (Note: Apollo is the parent company of Yahoo Finance.)
Private credit funds, their proponents argue, don’t face deposit runs and they don’t rely on short-term funding — a model that proved troublesome for some regional banks that ran into problems last year and had to be seized by regulators.
Instead, they lend money raised from large institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies that know they won’t get their money back for several years.
Another top executive with giant private lender Blackstone (BX) used the same Bernstein conference to cite the asset-liability mismatch that ultimately sank First Republic, the San Francisco regional bank that failed last May and was auctioned to JPMorgan.
"It had 20-year assets and 20-second deposits," Blackstone COO and general partner Jonathan Gray said.
"And if we can place these loans directly on the balance sheets of a life insurance company, that's better matching."
The rise of private credit
There is little doubt that private credit is on the rise as traditional banks pull back on lending during a time of elevated interest rates from the Federal Reserve and worries about a possible economic downturn.
The global private credit market, which accounts for all debt that is not issued or traded publicly, has grown from $41 billion in 2000 to $1.67 trillion through September, according to data provider Preqin. More than $1 trillion of that amount is held in North America.
The sum is still small compared to total loans held by US banks — over $12 billion — but the concern by some in the banking world is that any panic among borrowers could spread if things were to get ugly.
"I'm not sure that a one-and-a-half-trillion-dollar private credit market is particularly systemic, but the point is that these things can have a snowball effect," UBS chairman Colm Kelleher said in a Bloomberg interview earlier this year.
For now, private credit performance is solid despite the concerns.
For five of the past six quarters, private credit has brought higher investor returns than it has on average over the past decade, according to an aggregate private credit index created by Preqin.
It has also outperformed a similar index measuring aggregate returns in private equity for the same period.
"Everybody can look quite good when it's all going up to the right, but it gets tougher when you go through cycles," John Waldron, Goldman Sachs' COO, said at the same Bernstein conference.
'Dancing in the streets'
Private credit assets are varied. They can range from corporate loans to consumer car loans and some commercial mortgages. The loans are especially useful to midsize or below investment-grade borrowers in special situations like distress.
The terms are usually more flexible than what banks require, with adjustable interest rates, a potential advantage or dilemma for borrowers expecting interest rates to eventually drop.
Some bankers argue that money managers have an unfair advantage because they don’t have to operate under the same capital requirements as banks do. And bank regulators are preparing new rules that could make those capital requirements even stricter.
When those heightened standards were first proposed last year, Dimon quipped that private equity lenders were surely "dancing in the streets."
But there are some signs that Washington could be preparing to intensify its scrutiny of these funds. The Financial Stability Oversight Council has voted to approve a new framework for labeling firms as "systemically important," a tag that triggers new oversight from the Fed.
The new framework creates an opening for firms other than banks to get that label. Funds argue they don’t present the same systematic risks as banks, and therefore the label is not appropriate for them.
The relationship between traditional banks and private asset lenders is complicated. They compete with each other, but many banks also lend money to those same asset managers.
Dimon acknowledged that, saying there are many "brilliant" private lenders. "I mean, I know them all. We bank a lot of them. They're clients of ours."
"We're just uniquely positioned to be in the middle of all of it and I think it's going to continue to grow," Troy Rohrbaugh, co-CEO of JPM's commercial and investment bank, said this past Wednesday at another conference.
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>>> The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) -- Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 85
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/10-best-financial-stocks-to-buy-according-to-hedge-funds-1317041/5/
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR), a leading insurance provider, reported its financial results for May 2024, showing consistent growth in premiums and policies in force, along with a slight increase in its combined ratio compared to the previous year. For the month ending May 31, 2024, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) reported net premiums written of $5.975 billion and net premiums earned of $5.857 billion. The company’s net income was $235.7 million, or $0.40 per share available to common shareholders. Additionally, The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) recorded a total pretax net realized gain on securities of $117.6 million. The insurer’s combined ratio, a crucial performance metric in the insurance industry, was 100.4 for the current year, slightly up from 99.0 in the same month last year. BMO Capital Markets reiterated its “Outperform” rating for The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR), maintaining a $235.00 price target. The firm highlighted an unexpected acceleration in Progressive’s Personal Auto organic policy count growth in May, which typically slows down as summer approaches.
In the first quarter of 2024, the number of hedge funds with stakes in The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) increased to 85 from 79 in the previous quarter, according to Insider Monkey’s database of 920 hedge funds. The combined value of these stakes is approximately $4.99 billion. Andreas Halvorsen’s Viking Global emerged as the largest stakeholder among these hedge funds during this period.
Artisan Select Equity Fund stated the following regarding The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) shares rose 30% during the quarter. After a difficult start to 2023, the company quickly adapted and finished the year with impressive growth in premiums and underwriting profits. In Q4 2023, it managed to grow its customer base even as it raised rates and improved its underwriting ratios—a trifecta that isn’t often seen in the insurance industry. This performance has continued, which should set the stage for another year of good results in 2024. Perhaps most importantly, it has been able to navigate the environment far better than its peers, many of whom are still reporting sub-par underwriting performance. Progressive has consistently gained market share in the personal auto market over our ownership period and now commands close to 15% of the total market. Its shares are no longer a bargain, but we continue to hold them due to the high quality of this business and the advantaged nature of its low-cost insurance franchise.”
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>>> Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) -- Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 81
https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/10-best-financial-stocks-to-buy-according-to-hedge-funds-1317041/3/
In recent developments, Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) announced the results of its 2024 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, confirming the re-election of all sixteen director nominees for a one-year term expiring in 2025. Re-elected board members include Marc Beilinson, James Belardi, Jessica Bibliowicz, Walter Clayton, Michael Ducey, Kerry Murphy Healey, Mitra Hormozi, Pamela Joyner, Scott Kleinman, A.B. Krongard, Pauline Richards, Marc Rowan, David Simon, Lynn Swann, Patrick Toomey, and James Zelter. Additionally, stockholders ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent public accounting firm for 2024. Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) is negotiating with Sony Pictures Entertainment to acquire Paramount Global for $26 billion and is also considering a joint acquisition of DXC Technology with Kyndryl Holdings.
In the first quarter of 2024, the number of hedge funds with stakes in Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) increased to 81 from 77 in the previous quarter, according to Insider Monkey’s database. The combined value of these stakes is approximately $5.21 billion. Chase Coleman And Feroz Dewan’s Tiger Global Management LLC emerged as the largest stakeholder among these hedge funds during this period.
Baron FinTech Fund stated the following regarding Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Shares of alternative asset manager Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) outperformed after the company reported strong financial results and gave a positive outlook on growth over the next several years. In the most recent quarter, assets under management increased 19% and earnings per share increased 27%. Despite a more dovish interest rate outlook, management maintained 2024 financial guidance, which calls for 15% to 20% growth in fee-related earnings and double-digit growth in spread-related earnings. Fundraising remains strong, which supports management’s goal of more than doubling the pace of capital deployment over the next five years. Management remains bullish on private credit due to growth opportunities across fixed income replacement, retirement accounts, and high-net-worth investors.”
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>>> S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) ranks second on our list of 10 Best Financial Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds. During Q1, 2024 the count of hedge funds holding positions in S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) rose to 97 from 82 in the prior quarter, as reported by Insider Monkey’s database encompassing 920 hedge funds. These holdings collectively amount to around $9.57 billion. Chris Hohn's TCI Fund Management emerged as the leading shareholder among these hedge funds during this timeframe. On April 18, Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum reiterated a "Buy" rating for S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) but lowered the price target from $460 to $442.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-street-analysts-bullish-p-233834793.html
The London Stock Exchange Group and S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) are reportedly among the contenders interested in acquiring data provider Preqin, reported Reuters. The owners of Preqin, which specializes in private equity industry data, are exploring options that include a potential full sale of the business. Goldman Sachs is advising on the sale process, which is currently in its second round. Analysts involved estimate that the sale could fetch over $2 billion, although specifics remain confidential.
Baron Durable Advantage Fund stated the following regarding S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Shares of rating agency and data provider S&P Global Inc. (NYSE:SPGI) declined 3.1% during the quarter after the company provided financial guidance that missed Street expectations. While S&P guided to solid organic revenue growth of 7% to 9% and EPS growth of 9% to 11%, projected margin expansion fell short of investor estimates, which underestimated the correlation between improving top-line trends and variable employee comp (which is rising as a result). We are not concerned with this short-term dynamic that is the outcome of improving business fundamentals. S&P reported solid results for the most recent quarter, with 11% organic revenue growth, 23% EPS growth, and broad-based strength across the company’s business segments. Ratings growth was especially robust as debt issuance rebounded amid improving market conditions. Positive momentum has continued into 2024, with 66% issuance growth in January and February. We continue to own the stock due to the company’s durable growth characteristics and significant competitive advantages.”
Overall SPGI ranks 2nd on our list of the best financial stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Financial Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds to see the other financial stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of SPGI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SPGI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Arthur J Gallagher - >>> The U.S. is about to get slammed by a ‘very active’ hurricane season—but the carnage could be good news for these five insurance stocks, analyst says
Fortune
by Will Daniel
Jun 26, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-slammed-very-active-hurricane-180403861.html
Forecasters are expecting another devastating hurricane season this year. Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science warns a “very active” season could bring 11 total hurricanes, including five “major” hurricanes (category 3 to 5), and 23 named storms, compared with an average of 14.4 between 1990 and 2020. Meanwhile, the University of Pennsylvania’s Department of Earth and Environmental Science is forecasting an even more dire 33 named storms this year, citing high ocean surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
For most insurance companies, it’s a nightmare outlook that will lead to soaring costs as catastrophe claims spike—but for some, the carnage may perversely provide opportunity.
“If this grim forecast comes to fruition, it will likely buoy pricing for many lines of property-casualty insurance and reinsurance, providing certain underwriters’ shares with a catalyst,” CFRA Research analyst Catherine Seifert argued in a recent note.
Seifert described how some insurance providers and brokers that aren’t heavily exposed to hurricane-related catastrophe claims are benefiting from the strong pricing environment in the industry. Many insurers have been raising premiums by 10% to 25% (“or more”) each year as a result of rising catastrophe losses.
There has been increased damage to property from hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and difficult-to-forecast non-hurricane “supercell” storms in recent years, Seifert explained. “Once considered a ‘Florida problem,’ hurricane and coastal flood risk has broadened considerably,” she added, noting that nearly 7.6 million homes are now vulnerable to storm surges from a category 4 hurricane.
To her point, Pew Research found the frequency and cost of hurricanes has soared over the past two decades. Between 1983 and 2002, there were 96 major hurricanes that caused $546.3 billion in damage, but between 2003 and 2022, 244 similar disasters caused more than $1.95 trillion in damage.
Despite this rise in catastrophic property damage and a grim outlook for the trend to continue, property and casualty insurance companies have done quite well this year. The S&P 500 Property-Casualty Sub-Industry Index is up more than 17% year to date, outperforming the broader blue-chip index, which is up roughly 15% over the same period. And Seifert expects more good times ahead for some of these insurance providers.
The analyst highlighted five insurance companies that are “well positioned to benefit from the likely ongoing industrywide pricing power, or from other company-specific catalysts, while having a manageable level of exposure to catastrophes.” But she reminded investors to be cautious when selecting insurance stocks, as the hurricane season could be “disruptive and volatile” for some home and commercial-property insurers.
American International Group (AIG)
The insurance giant AIG is best known for its struggles during the Global Financial Crisis, but the company has transformed itself over the past 15 years. The new AIG is a much “more focused” property-casualty insurer, having separated from its life insurance and retirement business, Seifert noted.
The analyst went on to argue that AIG will benefit from rising insurance premiums and investment income, particularly after reengineering its property-casualty book to have a “lower risk profile and reduced exposure to catastrophes.”
CFRA has a “buy” rating and a $90 12-month price target for shares of AIG, representing a 20% potential return for investors.
Arch Capital Group
Arch Capital Group provides insurance and reinsurance (think: insurance for insurance companies) and was formed in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, when insurance coverage was difficult to obtain. Today, the company has a wide variety of offerings, from property-casualty insurance to professional-liability insurance, and is known for its nimble business model that allows it to shift to the most profitable insurance segments.
“We expect Arch to leverage favorable market and pricing conditions and produce operating revenue growth of more than 20% in 2024 and about 15% to 20% in 2025, about double the rate of the broader insurance and reinsurance industry,” Seifert wrote.
CFRA has a “buy” rating and a $107 12-month price target for shares of Arch Capital Group, representing a 7% potential return for investors.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) is a leading commercial-insurance broker and risk-management firm that has been growing rapidly through acquisitions for decades. The company makes 87% of its revenues through its wholesale- and retail-insurance brokerage business, which is benefiting from rising insurance premiums and brokerage commissions.
CFRA expects 7% to 10% organic revenue growth in 2024 and 2025 from AJG, and noted that the company acquired 50 firms in 2023, contributing $826 million in revenue. “Revenue growth in 2024 and 2025 could likely top our forecast if pricing trends remain intact and AJG’s acquisition strategy remains on course,” Seifert wrote.
CFRA has a “buy” rating and a $272 12-month price target for shares of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., representing a 7% potential return for investors.
Berkshire Hathaway
Warren Buffett’s mega-conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway may also benefit from rising insurance premiums. Berkshire owns the leading auto insurer, Geico, and offers reinsurance through its subsidiaries, General Re Corp. and National Indemnity Co. Buffett’s company also expanded its presence in the insurance space with its $11.5 billion acquisition of Alleghany Corp. in October 2022.
“Thanks mainly to the acceleration in reinsurance top-line growth, we expect all of Berkshire Hathaway to post operating revenue growth of between 10% and 15% in 2024 and between 12% and 15% in 2025,” Seifert wrote, noting that “these growth forecasts exclude the impact of any acquisitions, which we believe remain central to Berkshire’s overall strategy.”
CFRA has a “buy” rating and a $472 12-month price target for shares of Berkshire Hathaway, representing a 15% potential return for investors.
The Progressive Corp.
The Progressive Corp. is one of the largest insurers globally, with $62 billion in written premiums. The company focuses on auto insurance, and Seifert argued that rising premiums coupled with falling claims as the post-pandemic driving surge slows should boost its profitability.
Seifert also highlighted Progressive’s usage-based insurance product called Snapshot, labeling it an “industry-leading product” that widened the company’s competitive advantage over its peers.
“We forecast operating revenue growth of 15% to 20% in 2024, reflecting our view that net earned premiums will rise by between 15% and 20%, net investment income will rise by at least 10%, and fee income will rise by 15% to 18%,” she added, noting that “these rates of growth are nearly double those of the industry average.”
CFRA has a “buy” rating and a $235 12-month price target for shares of Progressive, representing a 14% potential return for investors.
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>>> Moody’s Corporation (MCO) - The final dividend growth stock on this month’s list that merits your attention is Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO). The risk assessment and analytics company has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years and features a 10-year CAGR of 13.1%, aligning with my selection criteria. This stock is also a Warren Buffett favorite, as Berkshire Hathaway has a 13.3% stake in the company, a position that goes all the way back to 2001.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-best-dividend-growth-stocks-164731137.html
Moody’s has consistently delivered robust financial results powered by its strong brand reputation and innovative analytics solutions. The company has also shown disciplined capital allocation, nicely balancing investments in technology with shareholder returns, thus preserving its competitive advantage while delivering significant capital to investors. Interestingly, Moody’s has reduced its share count by 45% since 1999, which is clear evidence of its longstanding commitment to share repurchases alongside dividends.
What differentiates Moody’s from my previous two picks is that the stock appears quite expensive. Currently trading at about 39 times this year’s expected EPS, there is no doubt that MCO stock is the most expensive it has been in years. That said, due to a high chance of EPS growing in the mid-teens for years to come, powered by an ever-growing demand for analytics, further aided by ongoing repurchases, MCO stock could still be presenting a compelling opportunity ahead.
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>>> Russia’s Richest Woman Gets Putin’s Nod to Build Payments System
Bloomberg News
Jun 21, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-richest-woman-gets-putin-101057770.html
(Bloomberg) -- Tatyana Bakalchuk made billions selling everything from brooms to bridal gowns on her online marketplace. Now Russia’s richest woman is making a surprise pivot: to helping insulate the economy from sanctions by building an alternative to the global payment system major Russian banks were excluded from.
Bakalchuk’s Wildberries — Russia’s answer to Amazon — is starting a venture with Russ Group, the nation’s biggest outdoor advertiser, to build a digital market to help small and medium-sized businesses promote and export their products, the company said this week. They also plan to create a payments platform that may offer a substitute for the dominant cross-border network, known as Swift, according to two people close to the Kremlin who declined to be identified.
The effort has been personally approved by President Vladimir Putin, who chose Maxim Oreshkin, deputy head of the Kremlin’s administration, to supervise it, the people said, asking not to be identified. There are no guarantees that the payment system will be successful, one of them said. Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said by text message that the president has ordered officials to consider Wildberries’ and Russ’s digital platform project, but that there aren’t any details yet.
Swift is the main messaging network through which international payments are initiated. Created in the 1970s, it links some 11,000 institutions across more than 200 countries and territories. The US and European Union sanctioned Russia’s key lenders after the Ukraine invasion, cutting them off from Swift and forcing Russia to use other payment options for imports and exports.
Wildberries declined to comment on its plan for a payments system.
Bakalchuk — who isn’t viewed as close to the Russian president — spoke at his flagship economic forum in St. Petersburg earlier this month and said she believed that private business in Russia has a future and is developing, although state support is required.
“Bakalchuk understands very well that the crisis is the time of opportunities,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “She’s seeking to expand the business to protect it, to become too big to fail and more visible to the Kremlin.”
Her own wealth has grown in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, swelling by around 40% to $8.1 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as fiscal stimulus boosted consumer spending.
The value of products sold on Wildberries rose 50% to 2.5 trillion rubles ($28 billion) last year, with a growing ratio of domestic goods. In emailed comments, Wildberries’ press office credited the popularity of online shopping as well as the development of its platform, including its expanding infrastructure and discounting.
Western Exodus
The exodus of western retailers like Ikea, H&M and Levi’s also helped. While Russian producers stepped in, Wildberries and its rival Ozon also helped shoppers access US and European brands that had officially left. Moscow introduced legislation permitting products to be imported into Russia without the trademark holder’s agreement, enabling Wildberries and Ozon to sell nearly everything they could before the war.
“I often have no idea if a brand has left Russia or not,” said Elena, 35, an interior designer based in the Moscow region who asked that her last name not be used to protect her identity. “If I need something, I simply search for it on Wildberries and buy it.”
She can still find Ikea items on Wildberries, even though the company abandoned the market and its plants in 2022. Even her 79-year-old grandmother uses the service, she said.
The war has helped bolster consumer spending, as well. The Russian government’s annual budget outlays, including military and social, rose by a third last year compared with 2021, while mobilization, the flight of many Russians abroad and a drop in foreign workers have created a massive labor shortage.
That has spurred growth in wages at a pace last seen before the 2008 financial crisis, and increased consumers’ capacity to shop, said Sofya Donets, an economist at T-Investments. “This brought entire groups of people into a higher category of wealth and consumption.”
Online shopping has extended its Covid-era expansion, growing 45% last year to 8.3 trillion rubles, according to INFOLine research. Controlling more than half of the market, Wildberries and Ozon have been the winners.
“Wildberries was one of the pioneers of the Russian e-commerce market,” said Marat Ibragimov, an analyst at Gazprombank, adding that its strength was in offering good terms for suppliers and a wide range of products at low prices for customers.
Bakalchuk started the company in 2004 as a place for people on a limited budget with little time for shopping. She ordered clothes in bulk from a German mail-order catalog, scanned the pictures, and posted them on her website. She delivered products herself rather than using the postal service, which was unreliable.
Sanctioned by Ukraine
Unlike billionaires who made their fortunes in the chaotic privatizations of the nineties or flourished in the early 2000s under Putin, Bakalchuk has never had a one-on-one meeting with the Russian president, and hasn’t been sanctioned by Washington or Brussels.
She was sanctioned by Ukraine, however, before the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion, because Wildberries sold an array of Russian nationalist-themed products, such as military uniforms and t-shirts praising Putin. That forced her to wind down the Ukrainian business.
Bakalchuk’s project with Russ Group aims to widen her outreach to Russia-friendly neighbors and countries of the so-called Global South, including China and India, according to the statement from Wildberries. It may help boost Russian GDP by 1.5% a year, RBC media reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the plan.
Still, creating a payments system may increase Bakalchuk’s risk of coming under US or European sanctions as Ukraine’s western allies have targeted other Russian financial services, including the Mir payment system and the central bank’s Swift-equivalent, called SPFS.
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Rickards - >>> Banking Crisis, Stage Two
BY JAMES RICKARDS
JUNE 5, 2024
https://dailyreckoning.com/banking-crisis-stage-two/
Banking Crisis, Stage Two
I’m sure you recall the banking crisis of March to May 2023.
It began with the collapse of the little-known Silvergate Bank on March 8. This was followed the next day by the collapse of the much larger Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 9. SVB had over $120 billion in uninsured deposits.
Bank deposits over $250,000 each are not covered by FDIC insurance. Those depositors stood to lose all their money over the insured amount. This would have led to the collapse of hundreds of startup tech businesses in Silicon Valley that had placed their working capital on deposit at SVB.
There were also much larger businesses such as Cisco and at least one large cryptocurrency exchange that had billions of dollars on deposit there. Those businesses would have taken huge write-downs based on the size of their uninsured deposits.
On March 9, the FDIC said that indeed the excess deposits were uninsured, and depositors would get “receivership certificates” of uncertain value and zero liquidity instead.
By March 11, the FDIC reversed course and said all deposits would be insured. The Federal Reserve intervened and said they would take any U.S. Treasury securities from member banks in exchange for par value in cash even if the bonds were only worth 80% of par (which most were).
The Mother of All Bailouts
That Sunday night they also closed Signature Bank, a New York-based bank with crypto links. The damage wasn’t done. On March 19, the Swiss National Bank forced a merge of UBS and Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world. Credit Suisse was on the edge of insolvency.
Finally, on May 1, First Republic Bank, with over $225 billion in assets, was ordered closed by the government and sold to JPMorgan.
It was the mother of all bailouts and seemed to leave stock market investors unfazed. The issue was, and is: Once you’ve guaranteed every deposit and agreed to finance every bond at par value, what’s left in your bag of tricks? What can you do in the next crisis that you haven’t already done — except nationalize the banks?
After five bank failures in two months and a trillion-dollar bailout by the government, the crisis seemed over. But that was false comfort. I wrote at the time that the crisis wasn’t over, that it was just halftime.
Investors are relaxed because they believe the banking crisis is over. That’s a huge mistake. History shows that major financial crises unfold in stages and have a quiet period between the initial stage and the critical stage.
When Slow-Motion Crisis Turns Real-Time
This happened in 1994 when the spring bond market massacre seemed contained in the summer only to explode into the Mexican Tequila Crisis in December.
It happened in 1997–98 when the Asian financial crisis calmed down in the winter of 1998 only to explode into the Russia-LTCM crisis the following August and September.
It happened during the Global Financial Crisis when the original distress in August 2007 that seemed contained was followed by the failures of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Lehman Bros. from March to September 2008.
The average duration of these financial crises is about 20 months. This new crisis began 15 months ago. It could have five more months to run, if not longer.
On the other hand, this crisis could reach the acute stage faster. That’s because of technology that makes a bank run move at the speed of light. With an iPhone you can initiate a $1 billion wire transfer from a failing bank while you’re waiting in line at McDonald’s. No need to line up around the block in the rain waiting your turn.
In other words, the second stage of the crisis could erupt in even more dramatic fashion sooner than later. This slow-motion crisis can become a real-time crisis very quickly.
The Dollar Itself Is at Stake
In addition, the regulatory response is faster because they’ve seen this movie before. That begs the question of whether regulators are out of bullets because they’ve already guaranteed almost everything so they don’t have more rabbits to pull out of the hat.
This could be the crisis where the panic moves from the banks to the dollar itself. If savers lose confidence in the Fed (we’re almost there) not only will the banks collapse, but the dollar will collapse also. At that point, the only solution is gold bullion.
It’s also important to distinguish between individual bank failures and a systemic banking crisis. When individual banks fail, the depositors and creditors are usually protected but stockholders can get wiped out.
In a systemic banking crisis, the contagion goes from bank to bank quickly, and the entire system has to be rescued with some combination of blanket deposit guarantees and unlimited QE.
In the worst case, you either have to shut the banks (which FDR did in 1933) or nationalize them which some countries have done from time to time.
Is Stage II Here?
Either a single bank failure or a systemic crisis could happen at any moment. The actual trigger is a bit mysterious and mostly psychological because the fundamental problems have been there all along.
Well, it seems that the quiet period is over and we are entering Stage II of the banking meltdown.
According to the latest data from the FDIC, many banks could be at risk of failure as unrealized losses reached $517 billion in the first quarter of 2024, up from $478 billion in the last quarter of 2023. 40 banks with over $1 billion in assets have already reported unrealized losses higher than 50% of their equity capital. Over 200 smaller banks with lesser assets have issued the same reports.
The bottom line is Stage II of the crisis is here, and the effects will be devastating to financial institutions and the stock market as a whole.
We may not be able to prevent the crisis, but we can see it coming and prepare accordingly to preserve our wealth. Step one is to get gold. That will see you through the storm.
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Buffett's 'mystery stock' is Chubb -
>>> Buffett’s Berkshire Reveals $6.7 Billion Stake in Insurer Chubb
Bloomberg
by Annie Massa
May 15, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-berkshire-reveals-6-7-203349962.html
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. unveiled a $6.7 billion stake in insurer Chubb Ltd., ending months of suspense over its mystery position in a financial firm, previously kept concealed in regulatory filings.
Berkshire disclosed the holding in a filing on Wednesday, reflecting its positions at the end of the first quarter.
The conglomerate has been building the stake since 2023 but it hadn’t previously been reported because the Securities and Exchange Commission allowed Berkshire to keep it confidential. Still, separate quarterly filings reflected that Berkshire’s equity stakes in banks, insurance and finance companies were growing, while the firm was pulling back in other industries including consumer products.
“Millions of people follow what Buffett does,” said David Kass, a finance professor at the University of Maryland‘s Robert H. Smith School of Business, explaining why Berkshire wants confidentiality while it amasses big positions. “Warren Buffett would be more sensitive to the issue than others.”
Chubb stock jumped in after-hours trading, adding as much as 9.9%.
Buffett’s Berkshire is deeply familiar with the insurance industry, owning a range of companies including Geico and National Indemnity. The billionaire investor has called Berkshire’s property-casualty insurance operation the “core” of the conglomerate, helping generate “float” that can then be reinvested.
The conglomerate has also invested in other businesses in the insurance industry. Berkshire owns a stake in Aon Plc, a major broker, and has previously bet on rivals including Marsh & McLennan Cos.
Cash Pile
Chubb is one of the biggest property-casualty insurers in the US and operates in 54 countries globally. Its chief executive officer, Evan Greenberg, is the son of Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, who led American International Group Inc. for many years. Evan Greenberg built Chubb through the 2016 merger of Ace Ltd. and Chubb Corp., which created a massive insurer that covers a range of risks including cyber attacks and marine shipping.
Chubb insured Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge, which collapsed when a cargo ship slammed into it in late March. It’s reportedly set to pay out $350 million to the state of Maryland.
Buffett already revealed a few recent changes to his company’s holdings at Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha earlier this month. It trimmed a stake in Apple Inc. to $135.4 billion at the end of the first quarter, as the iPhone maker faces a range of struggles including an antitrust fine, sliding sales in China and a failed car project.
The billionaire investor heaped praise on the tech giant at the meeting — which Apple CEO Tim Cook attended — and said it will remain Berkshire’s largest investment barring any dramatic changes.
The cash pile at Berkshire reached a record $189 billion at the end of March. Buffett said at the annual meeting that it was “a fair assumption” that it will hit $200 billion by the end of this quarter.
Funds with more than $100 million must file disclosures about their holdings within 45 days of the end of each quarter, providing a glimpse into the holdings of secretive money managers including hedge funds and large family offices.
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>>> The FDIC change that leaves wealthy bank depositors with less protection
Yahoo Finance
by Janna Herron
May 5, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fdic-change-that-leaves-wealthy-bank-depositors-with-less-protection-160017344.html
Affluent Americans may want to double-check how much of their bank deposits are protected by government-backed insurance.
New rules implemented last month capped what the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will insure in a trust account at $1.25 million.
Before, there was no limit on trust accounts, which are legal arrangements that ensure an individual's assets are distributed to specific beneficiaries.
The FDIC said the new rule will make it easier for consumers and bankers to understand deposit insurance rules. It is also designed to help FDIC agents more quickly determine which accounts are insured after a bank fails.
For tens of thousands of bank customers, the change could lower how much in those accounts are insured if their financial institution fails. Those affected may need to restructure their deposits or open new accounts at another bank to ensure their funds are protected.
"It's somewhat of an obscure change … and the loss of some insured deposits is something I'm not sure the FDIC has highlighted enough," said Ken Tumin, founder of DepositAccounts.com, which is owned by LendingTree.
"There may very well be a lot of depositors out there that might not have the insured deposits they had assumed when they originally opened the account."
What isn't changing is that the FDIC still insures up to $250,000 per depositor and per account category at each bank.
Here's how that works: Say you have $250,000 in an individual savings account and $50,000 in an individual checking account at Bank A. That means you, the depositor, have $300,000 total in one type of ownership category (single accounts) at the same bank, so only $250,000 is insured.
If you moved that $50,000 to another bank, it would be fully insured. Similarly, if you put that $50,000 in a joint account — which is a different ownership category — the amount would be fully insured even if it stayed at the same bank.
Trust accounts provided a loophole to insure more than $250,000. Under the old FDIC rules, each beneficiary of the trust would get $250,000 in insurance protection. So, for example, if the trust named 10 beneficiaries, then that account would be insured for $2.5 million.
"Before this change, many people weren't aware that you could theoretically insure almost an infinite amount at one bank through the FDIC rules through a trust account," Tumin said.
That's no longer the case. The new rule limits the number of trust beneficiaries that receive the $250,000 insurance amount to five, totaling at most $1.25 million.
Additionally, irrevocable trusts and revocable trusts are now lumped together into one ownership category — trust accounts — under the new rules. That new category also includes any deposit account that has named beneficiaries upon the owner’s death, such as a certificate of deposit, or CD.
So, the trust that previously was insured for $2.5 million for its 10 beneficiaries is now insured only for $1.25 million.
"As of April, you lose half of that [insurance]," Tumin said.
When the FDIC proposed these rules in 2022 — a year before talk about lifting the $250,000 insurance cap bubbled up during a run of bank failures — it estimated that almost 27,000 trust account depositors and just over 36,000 trust accounts "could be directly affected by this aspect of the final rule."
Additionally, merging revocable trusts and irrevocable trusts into one ownership category could decrease coverage "in limited instances."
Still, a small number of irrevocable trusts could see an increase in insurance coverage under the new rules, the FDIC said, while overall most depositors should not see a change in their coverage.
To find out if you're affected, use the FDIC's tool — Electronic Deposit Insurance Estimator — to figure out on a per-bank basis how much of your money, if any, exceeds the new coverage limits.
If you find that some of your money is now uninsured, talk to your bank. Financial institutions typically work with customers affected by regulatory changes to ensure their large deposits are protected. You may end up needing to open a different type of account or put the uninsured sum in an account at another bank.
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>>> Regulators close Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank, first US bank failure this year
Associated Press
4-26-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/regulators-close-philadelphia-based-republic-first-bank-first-us-bank-failure-this-year/ar-AA1nK8gv?cvid=8494263e32044cc8dd2049b02657979f&ei=23
WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators have closed Republic First Bank, a regional lender operating in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Friday it had seized the Philadelphia-based bank, which did business as Republic Bank and had roughly $6 billion in assets and $4 billion in deposits as of Jan. 31.
Fulton Bank, which is based in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, agreed to assume substantially all of the failed bank's deposits and buy essentially all of its assets, the agency said.
Republic Bank’s 32 branches will reopen as branches of Fulton Bank as early as Saturday. Republic First Bank depositors can access their funds via checks or ATMs as early as Friday night, the FDIC said.
The bank's failure is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund $667 million.
The lender is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail in the U.S. this year. The last bank failure — Citizens Bank, based in Sac City, Iowa — was in November.
In a strong economy an average of only four or five banks close each year.
Rising interest rates and falling commercial real estate values, especially for office buildings grappling with surging vacancy rates following the pandemic, have heightened the financial risks for many regional and community banks. Outstanding loans backed by properties that have lost value make them a challenge to refinance.
Last month, an investor group including Steven Mnuchin, who served as U.S. Treasury secretary during the Trump administration, agreed to pump more than $1 billion to rescue New York Community Bancorp, which has been hammered by weakness in commercial real estate and growing pains resulting from its buyout of a distressed bank.
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>>> Globe Life profit surges on strong underwriting, investment returns
Reuters
Apr 22, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/globe-life-profit-surges-strong-210636532.html
April 22 (Reuters) - Globe Life posted a rise in first-quarter profit on Monday as the insurer benefited from strong investment returns and underwriting activities.
The insurance industry, known for its resilience to economic downturns, sustains a stable demand for policies, with both corporate and government spending on insurance remaining steady.
Total premiums at Globe Life rose to $1.15 billion in the first quarter from $1.10 billion a year ago.
The surge in the broader equity capital markets on the other hand has enhanced investment income for insurers, who diversify a portion of their cash across various asset classes.
Globe Life's net investment income for the quarter increased about 10% to $282.6 million.
The company's net operating income for the three months ended March 31 came in at $2.78 per share, compared with $2.53 per share in the prior-year quarter.
Globe Life expects its operating income for the year to be between $11.50 to $12.00 per share. The insurer further expects to resume share buybacks once the blackout period related to a potential acquisition ends for the first quarter.
Earlier this month, Fuzzy Panda Research disclosed a short position in the company, citing numerous cases of insurance fraud, leading Globe Life's shares to drop to their lowest in over a decade.
Globe Life denied the allegations, saying "the short seller analysis by Fuzzy Panda Research mischaracterizes facts and uses unsubstantiated claims and conjecture to present an overall picture of Globe Life that is deliberately false."
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>>> Jay Powell just made 2024 more of a puzzle for regional banks
Yahoo Finance
by David Hollerith
Apr 21, 2024
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jay-powell-just-made-2024-more-of-a-puzzle-for-regional-banks-130039910.html
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is making the rest of 2024 more complicated for regional banks.
This past week 12 of the nation's best-known midsize lenders reported sizable drops in first quarter profits thanks largely to the effect elevated interest rates are having on their operations.
Many of these banks are paying higher costs for deposits as customers continue to seek out higher yields, and those costs are eating into a key revenue source known as net interest income.
That pressure is not likely to abate anytime soon as the Fed dials back its expectations for rate cuts in 2024, a move that was cemented by Powell this past Tuesday just as many regional banks prepared to release their first quarter results.
The Fed was a popular topic for regional bank executives as they explained their results to Wall Street and described their outlook for the rest of the year.
Most reaffirmed that they expect the money they make from lending to drop as rates remain elevated.
Some, however, predicted that if rates stay high, their banks will eventually be able to make more from lending or the repricing of their securities, perhaps during the second half of this year.
Take US Bancorp (USB) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), the two biggest regional lenders in the US.
Minneapolis-based US Bancorp now expects to make between $200 million and $500 million less in net interest income than it forecast in January, driven by lower loan growth and more expense pressure from deposit costs.
"The outlook for potential rate cuts in 2024 has meaningfully changed," Andy Cecere, US Bancorp CEO, told analysts Wednesday. "We now expect our net interest income for the full year to be lower than anticipated."
As for next year, "we're not going to give a 2025 guide right now because it's so volatile in terms of what rates could be."
Pittsburgh-based PNC, however, said it expects improvement in the last two quarters of the year thanks to the repricing of its under-earning securities portfolio. That will help even out any rise in deposit costs, the bank’s CEO said.
"It would be a bit of a heroic assumption for anybody to say that deposit costs won't continue to creep up in the face of a steady Fed," PNC CEO Bill Demchak told analysts Tuesday.
First Horizon (FHN) CFO Hope Dmuchowski told analysts Wednesday that forecasting how much the bank can make from its net interest income “in this environment is very, very hard, even within a 3% range, with as many moving parts as we have.”
The Memphis-based lender kept its previous guidance for net interest income to grow between 1% and 4%, assuming three rate cuts. It also bucked an industry-wide trend in the quarter, with costs for interest-bearing deposits declining from the previous quarter while overall levels were stable.
At Buffalo, N.Y.-based M&T Bank (MTB), executives bumped the bank's net interest income guidance up to $6.8 billion, the top of its previous range. But that is an estimate based on two rate cuts.
Part of that estimate also leans on the repricing of M&T's securities portfolio as a margin boost.
“Obviously, we could outperform, but I'd much rather under promise and over deliver right now,” M&T CFO Daryl Bible told analysts Monday.
These regional banks could surely use more loan growth, but that may have to wait until the Fed lowers rates. And that largely depends on the path of inflation.
So far this year, readings from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been hotter than expected. Fed officials have cited those readings as a reason why rates will likely remain elevated for longer than expected.
"When you read those [CPI] reports, it's a little bit like you’re looking into Snow White’s magic mirror; you kind of see what you want to see," Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) CEO Timothy Spence said in an interview Friday.
CPI rose 3.5% over the prior year in March, an acceleration from February's 3.2% annual gain in prices and more than economists expected.
"You can conclude by looking at it that inflation is stuck at 3%, that it’s grinding down slowly to 2%, you could conclude that it’s reigniting towards 4%," Spence added.
As long as rates remain where they are, Spence said, the key for banks is "the race between your ability to reprice fixed-rate assets and your ability to manage deposit costs."
Fifth Third's interest-bearing deposit costs rose by 0.01% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, a much lower rise than some rivals.
"For all banks in an environment like this one, your ability to continue to control interest expense is going to be a big driver of your ability to hit your outlook," Spence said.
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>>> Move Aside, Big Banks: Giant Funds Now Rule Wall Street
The Wall Street Journal
by Matt Wirz
4-22-24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/move-aside-big-banks-giant-funds-now-rule-wall-street/ar-AA1npR11?cvid=9604790d90024acef4ec5a709c7bd156&ei=35
Giant investment companies are taking over the financial system.
Top firms now control sums rivaling the economies of many large countries. They are pushing into new business areas, blurring the lines that define who does what on Wall Street and nudging once-dominant banks toward the sidelines.
Today, traditional and alternative asset managers control twice as many assets as U.S. banks, giving them increasing control over the purse strings of the U.S. economy.
The firms—such as Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock and KKR—are becoming more complex and more similar to one another all at once. Investors say this creates risks that markets have never encountered before.
Fund-manager executives insist the expansion, as striking as it is, remains in its early innings. Good news for them because fast growth is bringing them vast wealth, especially in private, or “alternative,” investing. Private equity has minted more billionaires than any other industry in recent years, according to data from Forbes.
Here’s a look at how the field is shifting:
Trillion-dollar titans
Huge fund-management companies are bulking up by offering new types of products to capture market share. The biggest are evolving into financial supermarkets, mostly for institutions and the wealthy, but increasingly for middle-class investors as well. Banks consolidated similarly in the decade leading up to the financial crisis.
Private-equity and private-debt funds, such as Apollo Global Management and Blackstone, mostly manage money for institutions, but are increasingly selling products to individual investors. Mutual-fund behemoths, including BlackRock, are growing bigger still by building or buying private-fund operations.
Asset managers are also supplanting banks as lenders to U.S. companies and consumers and intertwining with the insurance industry.
Top private-fund executives say they require long-term client commitments, making them more stable than deposit-dependent banks such as Silicon Valley Bank.
“We’re moving into a gray area as asset-management businesses move into different silos of financial services,” said Tyler Cloherty, a managing director at consulting firm Deloitte who advises fund managers. “The big question I’m getting is ‘What do we do around getting alternatives to retail clients?’ There’s a lot of complexity there.”
The growth spurt came out of the 2008 financial crisis, when new regulation curtailed investing and lending by banks, making room for fund managers to expand. Central banks kept interest rates low for most of the following decade, driving investors out of savings accounts and Treasury bonds and into managed funds.
Blurring the lines
In 2008, U.S. banks and fund managers were roughly neck and neck at about $12 billion of assets. Today, traditional asset managers, private-fund managers and hedge funds control about $43.5 trillion, nearly twice the banks’ $23 trillion, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the Federal Reserve, HFR, ICI and Preqin.
Large banks have responded by becoming more like fund managers, beefing up investment teams. Goldman Sachs reported this month revenue of about $4 billion from asset and wealth management in the first quarter, twice the earnings from its storied investment-banking division.
Public-fund managers, meanwhile, became huge, mostly by offering low-fee mutual and exchange-traded funds that track indexes. Four of the biggest—BlackRock, Fidelity, State Street and Vanguard—control about $26 trillion, equivalent to the entire annual U.S. economic output.
But over the past four years, private equity and debt fund assets doubled to almost $6 trillion, far outpacing the 31% growth rate for public funds. The firms began selling private-credit funds to their core clients—pension funds and endowments that had maxed out on private equity. The fund managers also made inroads with new investors, such as insurance companies and individuals.
As the funds grow bigger, their founders make more money. Private-equity fund managers took 41 spots on Forbes magazine’s list of U.S. billionaires published this month, more than any other profession. The investors make up 5.5% of all the country’s billionaires, almost twice the 3% they comprised just 10 years ago.
The surge could continue. KKR Co-CEO Scott Nuttall—a 2022 addition to the Forbes billionaires list—told shareholders at a meeting this month that KKR will double the money it controls to $1 trillion by 2029. Only 2% of wealthy individuals currently invest in alternative funds and that will jump to 6% by 2027, he said.
Rival Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management, says his firm will increase its roughly $650 billion under management to $1 trillion by 2026. Blackstone, which crossed the $1 trillion threshold in July, launched this year its first private-equity fund targeted at individual investors. The fund has raised about $3 billion so far, the fastest start ever for a retail fund by the firm, a person familiar with the matter said. Blackstone has raised more than $100 billion through private debt and real-estate funds aimed at individuals.
Public-fund managers are much bigger than their private counterparts, but also less profitable after years of lowering fees to gain market share. A growing number, including Franklin Templeton and T. Rowe Price, are buying alternative managers to boost profits.
The trend hit a fever pitch in January, when BlackRock struck a deal to buy Global Infrastructure Partners for $12.5 billion, the highest price ever for an alternative-asset manager, according to Dealogic. If the acquisition goes through as expected, it will mint another six billionaires for the Forbes list from among Global Infrastructure’s founding partners.
Other traditional fund managers have taken a slower—and less expensive—approach, building their own private-fund businesses.
Regulating private equity for the masses
Neuberger Berman, a traditional fund manager born out of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, has about one-third of its $463 billion in investments in alternatives, up from about 10% a decade ago. The employee-owned firm raised the bulk of the assets from institutional investors.
“Much of the future growth will be driven by individuals who don’t have either the experience or professional staff to help them,” said Neuberger Chief Executive George Walker. The onus is on fund managers to educate the new buyers and provide them with well-diversified products to reduce risk, he said.
Neuberger launched in 2021 a product it calls Access that pools dozens of private funds and their investments to give clients with low buy-ins a diversified portfolio. The fund doubled in size over the past year to about $1 billion.
Bond-fund powerhouse Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages about $2 trillion, has increased alternative investments to $165 billion from $10.7 billion in 2010, a company spokeswoman said. TCW, another bond-fund manager, doubled alternative investments over the past four years to $20 billion, about 10% of total assets, a person familiar with the matter said. Both firms hired portfolio managers away from private-equity and hedge-fund firms to help staff the efforts.
Regulators are tackling titanic fund managers from several angles. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved in August new rules for private funds requiring more investor disclosures and proscribing side deals with institutional clients.
Rising sales of private funds to individuals come as leveraged buyouts by private equity returned 8% last year, the lowest level since 2011, according to Preqin. Higher interest rates have made it harder for the funds to sell companies they own and more expensive to buy new ones.
Traditional fund managers are being scrutinized over their outsize influence in shareholder votes. In November, an interagency regulator passed a rule allowing large fund managers to potentially be regulated as systemically important institutions, as large banks are. Still, the decision only reinstates an Obama-era measure overturned by the Trump administration.
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