Contrarian Value Ideas

[gfp927z]

Pepsico - >>> This Dividend King's Yield Has Never Been This High. Time to Buy, or Run Away?


Motley Fool

by Justin Pope

May 26, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dividend-kings-yield-never-high-001400410.html


Looking for a safe investment? It's often a good idea to start with companies that pay and raise dividends. These companies generally feature durable competitive advantages and the steady and profitable growth needed to send more cash to shareholders each year.

Companies that raise dividends long enough become Dividend Kings, legendary stocks with at least 50 years of uninterrupted dividend growth.

PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) is a famous example. The company has been selling iconic brands of snacks and drinks worldwide for generations. But things aren't as smooth at PepsiCo as they once were, and the market's grown wary enough to send the stock price lower and the dividend yield to all-time highs.

Abnormally high yields are often the market's way of signaling danger, trouble in a business. Can you trust PepsiCo's dividend now, and should investors buy the stock or run away?

PepsiCo's growth is slowing, and here's why

The company's sales surpassed $91 billion last year. It's incredible to think about how many beverages and bags of snacks you need to move for that much revenue. PepsiCo has two primary growth levers: it can sell more servings of drinks and snacks or charge more for them.

PepsiCo's iconic brands and premium shelf space in stores often afforded it pricing power, where it can slowly inch prices higher over time. However, inflation soared following the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data from the consumer price index, food prices rose approximately 25% from 2019 to 2023, far more than their historical pace.

Possible tariffs could also raise costs further. This has begun weighing on consumers, which prompted PepsiCo to cut its 2025 earnings forecast. Additionally, weight loss drugs, which work primarily by depressing patients' appetites, have become increasingly popular in America.

PepsiCo's food volumes dropped 1% last year and began 2025 with a 3% year-over-year decline in the first quarter. It's a tough spot for the company because trying to lean into price increases could drive even more buyers away.

Can investors trust the stock's abnormally high yield?

Entering last year, analysts anticipated PepsiCo growing its earnings by an average of about 8% annually over the long term. Those annualized growth estimates have fallen to under 4%, and the lower expectations have sent the stock lower, too.

Today, PepsiCo yields 4.2%, its highest ever. Heck, the stock hadn't yielded more than 3.6% until recently, so momentum has turned quickly and sharply against it:

It's not ideal that PepsiCo paid $5.42 per share in dividends last year, but generated just $5.28 per share in free cash flow. Dividends are cash expenses, so PepsiCo couldn't afford its dividend with its cash profits.

Yet, the dividend will likely be fine. Generations of success have made PepsiCo a financial fortress, with $8.5 billion in cash and a sterling "A+" (investment grade) credit rating from S&P Global with a stable outlook.

In other words, PepsiCo's business isn't likely to fall off. It still dominates your local grocery store and should continue to grow. It just might grow slower than you're used to seeing.

Exploring PepsiCo's outlook

There's also a good chance PepsiCo will adapt over the coming years. CEO Ramon Laguarta said as much when an investor asked him about the impact of weight loss drugs during PepsiCo's Q1 2025 earnings call.

In the past year alone, the company has already begun acquiring emerging brands in strategic health and specialty categories, with Siete Foods and Poppi. PepsiCo could then turn around and sell brands it feels don't align with its strategy.

So, there's a decent chance that PepsiCo eventually makes changes to restart its growth engine. If not, it's still likely a fantastic dividend stock for income-focused investors looking for an above-average yield without taking on much risk. If that appeals to you, the stock is a solid buy.

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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> ULTA <<

Last year Berkshire bought some ULTA in Q2, and then sold most of it in Q3, but it was a pick by one of the new guys (Weschler, Combs).

The best looking LT chart in the 'luxury' sector that I'm aware of is a French company Hermes (HESAY). Another luxury type stock with a great LT chart is Ferrari (RACE). The PEs for HESAY and RACE are on the high side (high 40s, low 50s), but they have great margins.



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[fung_derf]

Well, it looks like ULTA finally broke out today.

[fung_derf]

I'd pick $RTX over the others. Lower P/E and a decent dividend.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> RTX <<

Raytheon has been an excellent LT stock, but in the aero-defense sector I decided to go with TransDigm (TDG), which has a steadier LT chart, and is less dependent on the defense budget. For the rest of that sector I used the broad ETF (PPA), which is steadier than most of the individual stocks. Heico (HEI) is another aero-defense idea, with a great LT chart, but the PE is now 72, so too rich for me. I was surprised to see Berkshire get some HEI late last year, but it was likely a pick by the new guys (Wechsler, Combs) and not Buffett. I think they bought right after the stock dropped (Nov), so we'll see if they continue to hold it long term at the higher valuation.

A few years back RTX merged with United Technologies (UTX), which was also an excellent LT company. They spun off Carrier (HVAC) and Otis (elevators) subsidiaries, so UTX stockholders got a great deal. Right now the overall sector appears on the expensive side, based on the broad ETF anyway (PPA). I currently own TDG, but a modest position -


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>>> TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.

The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, delivery systems and electronic components, and cargo loading and handling systems. This segment serves engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots.

The Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, engineered audio, radio and antenna systems, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions. This segment serves airframe manufacturers, cabin system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots.

The Non-aviation segment offers seat belts and safety restraints; mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls; hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves; refueling systems; and turbine controls. This segment serves off-road vehicle and subsystem suppliers, child restraint system suppliers, and satellite and space system suppliers; and manufacturers of heavy equipment.

TransDigm Group Incorporated was founded in 1993 and is based in Cleveland, Ohio.

<<<

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDG/profile/


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[fung_derf]

RTX for me currently worth $126,700....it has been in a nice breakout since 3/24 so I hit it right I guess.
$SEZL.....I can't advise what to do there now. I just saw big upside, but had no idea how big. I've sold off about 2/3rds of it already so obviously I don't know the top.
You asked me how I pick my stocks......I read a lot and pick a few. I try to fashion myself off my buddy Mark Cuban...realize you only have so many good ideas in you, so find others with good ideas and ride their coattails. For what its worth, he is far better at it than me.
You also have to be willing to be wrong on occasion....and apparently, forgetting you own stuff has made me a fair amount of money.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> 955 shares <<

Yikes, you have more in that 'lost' position than I have in my entire 11% stock allocation (!) You obviously have entirely TOO MUCH money to invest, so the logical solution would be to generously give some of the surplus away to needy I-Hub investors like me :o) No? Oh well, I tried anyway.. :o)

Btw, it looks like SEZL is still truckin -- 111 and counting. Having a payment 'platform', the sky could be the limit if the platform catches on. Their margins are huge (33%, 60%), as are the ROA and ROE (46%, 137%), and rev and earnings growth are gangbusters. The market cap is now 3.7 Bil, but that might turn out to look cheap 6 mos or 1 year from now. I should have bought some, but it might still be in the early innings.


>>> Sezzle Shares Sizzle After Big Money Inflows


FX Empire

by Lucas Downey

May 28, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sezzle-shares-sizzle-big-money-103958965.html


SEZL’s payment platform enables bank-to-bank money transfers between consumers and businesses. It offers “buy now, pay later” functionality that allows consumers to split expenses into multiple payments over time. The company also offers subscription products and focuses its marketing for subscription offerings after an initial on-demand use of the SEZL platform (typically a “buy now, pay later” transaction).

As for earnings, SEZL’s first-quarter 2025 report showed a total quarterly revenue jump of 123%, which was driven by 77% growth in on-demand users and subscribers. Net income for the quarter was $36.2 million, with a net income margin of 34.5%. On top of the great performance, SEZL raised its 2025 net income guidance by almost 50%, to $120 million, as well as per-share earnings guidance of up to $3.25. There was also a six-for-one stock split earlier this year.

It’s no wonder SEZL shares are up 147% this year – and they could rise more. MoneyFlows data shows how Big Money investors are once again betting heavily on the forward picture of the stock.

Sezzle is a Big Money Magnet

Institutional volumes reveal plenty. In the last year, SEZL has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.

Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in SEZL shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:

Plenty of technology names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Sezzle.

Sezzle Fundamental Analysis

Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, SEZL has had strong sales and earnings growth:

3-year sales growth rate (+35.5%)

3-year EPS growth rate (+527.4%)

Source: FactSet

Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +29.9%.

Now it makes sense why the stock has been generating Big Money interest. SEZL has a track record of strong financial performance.

Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.

Sezzle recently became a top-rated stock at MoneyFlows. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

It just made the rare Outlier 20 report. The blue bar shows when SEZL was a top pick…eyeing gains ahead:

This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.

Sezzle Price Prediction

The SEZL revival isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.

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[fung_derf]

So, apparently, I'm the worst at keeping track of all my investments. I just went to buy some $RTX and noticed I already own 955 shares I bought back in Feb. 2024 around $90.

[fung_derf]

Someone yesterday was strongly recommending $NVDA and $RTX right now to me.

[fung_derf]

Between MA, AXP, and V, I'd probably favor AXP at the moment.
ASML looks ready to move!
I've also been watching $LNC closely and it seems to hold support. It's a buy at $38, but may be worth at a starting position here at $33.22

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> MA <<

I have some MA, plus V and AXP. Buffett has LT positions in all three, but AXP is his largest by far. V and MA have monster margins, and smoother LT charts, but AXP has a much lower PE. I figure Buffett likes them, so might as well have some.

>> ASML <<

I don't follow the semi sector closely, but in the past had some ADI, KLAC, MPWR, AVGO. NVDA and the ETF (SOXX). The ASML chart has been more 'ziggy' / volatile, so I went with the others. I traded SMCI a few times back when it was zooming.




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[fung_derf]

Thoughts on $ASML and $MA right here?

[fung_derf]

OK, not that I believe that article, but based on my research UPS is cheap. It may take a while to head up, but in the meantime, the dividend yield is currently 6.8% and raises every year, and they look to earnings growth in 2027.
So, I picked up 150 shares.....if the chart was at all bullish, I would have bought 800.

[gfp927z]

>>> United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services in the United States. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia.

The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, custom brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

<<<

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UPS/profile/



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[gfp927z]

>>> Warren Buffett Is Buying a Secret Stock Again -- and Based on Clues, This Is the Company I Believe He's Building a Position In <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176218676



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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> VOD <<

They have lots of debt, although T and VZ also have tons of debt, so not unusual for that sector. VOD's div payout ratio is also over 100%, so another red flag, and levered free cash flow is negative. Shorts are low though, under 1%. The really high dividend payers I usually avoid, especially if the company also has high debt. Better to use that money to pay down the debt, grow the business, one would think.

But looking at ATT, after a 'lost decade', the stock took off over the last year, in spite of the huge 145 bil in debt. I noticed that Buffett will sometimes own some higher debt companies, so there's undoubtedly more to it than just the numbers.



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[fung_derf]

Reading through a new guy's posts and one board he's on is $BGC....this looks very undervalued to me.

[fung_derf]

Another possible contrarian play is $VOD. I owned this years ago and fortunately got out, but it looks like it may have found a bottom. Nice dividend yield.

[fung_derf]

I had to do some puzzle work to figure it out. At first I thought it was you, but tracing backwards I came across this post from the $SMCI board....

dinogreeves

Member Level
Re: TheDane post# 1849

Sunday, February 09, 2025 6:10:44 PM

Post#
1850
of 3034
Never doubted this one, but again, markets can be crazy at times, but this can play out similar to CVN*A if not even better if numbers were not altered. Trump is pushing for 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum and will make announcement as early as tomorrow. What effect will it have on the markets going into tomorrow and this week? Anyones guess at this point, we just have to wait and see how thing unfold with SMCI and how the markets react to it and the whole premise of Tariffs. I never buy on dip, 90% of the time I sell on the dip and move on, the fact that I have stayed with cause I am a big believer. $LKNCY I had 100,000 shares of this at 10.20 and sold at 9.00 dollars with 120,000 loss and watch it go to 30 and change within 9-12 months and $SEZL thought me a valuable lesson although I made a quick 5,000 dollars just day trade and sold at 72.00 dollars between 2021 and 2024. $CAVA is my next biggest one also, I eat here at least once a week and they are busy all the time, every week different locations within 30 miles distance from each other, $CAVA is the next Chipotle.

This is why I research the history of posters here. It proves how many bad and scam guys there are, but occasionally you find someone who knows what they are talking about. If someone suggests a stock, I first start with the chart, then on to fundamentals and other factors I consider.
This dinogreeves guy is a bit flighty, but he seems to do his research and, (based on his history) has made some well timed picks.
The rest is up to me......although Janice Shell made some negative comments on SEZL that made me sell some shares too early. I'm doubtful she knows how to pick a stock. Her strength is is investigating the bad ones.
A very small percentage of the time, an IHUBber, finds me a good investment, and that's why I waste my time here.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Just curious how you heard about SEZL? They seem like a possible multi-bagger over the longer term, based on their business model and still low market cap. Their margins are similar to Visa / Mastercard, ie off the charts. Might be worthy of a LT buy / hold position (?)


>>> Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) operates as a technology-enabled payments company primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers payment solution in-store and at online retail stores; and through proprietary payments solution that connects consumers with merchants for instantly extends credit at the point-of-sale. It also provides Sezzle Platform that provides a payments solution for consumers that extends credit at the point-of-sale allowing consumers to purchase and receive the ordered merchandise at the time of sale while paying in installments over time; Pay-in-Four, which allows consumers to pay a fourth of the purchase price up front and then another fourth of the purchase price every two weeks thereafter over a total of six weeks; Pay-in-Full that allows consumers to pay for the full value of their order up-front through the Sezzle Platform without the extension of credit; and Pay-in-Two and other alternative installment options, which allow consumer to pay half of the value of their order up-front and the second half in two weeks. In addition, the company offers Sezzle Virtual Card that allows consumers to access the Sezzle Platform in the form of merchants in-store and online with merchants that are not directly integrated with Sezzle; Sezzle Anywhere, a paid subscription service that allows consumers to use their Sezzle Virtual Card at any merchant online or in-store; Sezzle On-Demand, a service that allows consumers who are not subscribed to Sezzle Anywhere to use the Sezzle Platform at any merchant online or in-store; Sezzle Premium, a paid subscription service that allows its consumers to access large, non-integrated premium merchants; and Sezzle Up, an opt-in feature of the Sezzle Platform. Further, the company offers Long-Term Lending through collaboration with third-party lenders and Product Innovation. Sezzle Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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[fung_derf]

On a chart like SEZL, you will usually see a 3 week spike. Each week rising far above the week before. Problem is, I'm not sure if you'd call this the 2nd week or 3rd?
I've already sold about 40% of the shares just over $80, where do I sell the next 1/3rd?
edit: On second thought, I think $99 might be the next place to sell some.
Ultimate goal $120?

[gfp927z]

Derf, Btw, SEZL looks like it's getting ready to continue its move to 100 (?)



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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> better off self insuring <<

Unfortunately that would only be an option for a Bill Gates or Elon Musk.

Most docs would love to leave Medicare if they could. I managed my dad's bills when he got older, and Medicare pays the docs and hospitals almost nothing. The normal bill for a procedure might be $1200, Medicare allows $250, but actually pay $65. And the patient also pays nothing or next to nothing. That's one reason why so many docs have opted for retirement, or selling their practices to managed care outfits. Health insurance companies are leaving the Medicare advantage market, as are some hospitals. I don't understand all the dynamics, but it obviously won't end well.



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[fung_derf]

Well, you see, I don't believe the insurance company's costs are what they claim they are. I think the entire system is one big hoooey. I've had doctors call me and tell me they would provide service to me for $100 cash when the insurance cost was $600.
I believe they mark everything up by about 600%, then make you pay the 20% which is the real cost. What's odd though are how many of my drugs lately have a zero fee.....I can't explain that.
I believe, except in extreme cases, you're better off self insuring.....there is no way some of these procedures are hundreds of thousands....the doctors don't see that much.
I've got a good friend who is a Cardiothoracic Surgeon....if there was any doctor who I'd suspect would make big money, it would be one of these guys.....but I was SHOCKED by how little he makes.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> a scam <<

Yes, though few of us could risk going without insurance (medical, liability, home, auto, etc), so they are providing an essential service.

Btw, I held my nose and picked up some UNH at 283, although only 3 shares. As I discovered last year with PFE, HSY, etc, these turnarounds are tricky, so will probably just try to get the oversold bounce with UNH. MRK and NVO have really gotten clobbered also.

Buffett said the problem with turnarounds is that they rarely turn around, although I think he was referring to the extreme turnarounds. On the other hand, excellent LT companies that have run into temporary problems are where Buffett will often pounce. That takes lots of patience though, and also the ability to fully analyze the company's situation, etc. But not many of us are in Buffett's league when it comes to evaluating stocks.



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[fung_derf]

Insurance companies are such a scam.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> claim denial practices <<

Yes, UNH does seem to have a sordid reputation for denying treatment to patients, and that extends across the entire sector. I remember during the Obama years, the government reportedly cut $500 billion from the Medicare budget, and then another $500 bil in Obama's second term (supposedly to help fund Obamacare).

Back then my dad was seeing a hematologist / oncologist for ITP (low platelets), and the doc told me how shocked he was by the Medicare cuts. They had been cutting reimbursments for years, but suddenly were denying coverage altogether for cancer patients who were already on chemo. It was unbelievable, but he said he continued to provide the chemo at no charge since otherwise these patients would die. The mega cuts weren't actually coming from UNH and other insurance providers, but from the Medicare system itself.



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[fung_derf]

Killing of Brian Thompson


Killing of Brian Thompson
A dirty frame of CCTV footage covering the sidewalk. The killer stands at the bottom left, wearing a hooded jacket, firing his sidearm at Thompson, in the center, his back facing the camera.

Location of the killing
Location Outside the New York Hilton Midtown in Midtown Manhattan, New York City
Coordinates 40°45'46.2?N 73°58'47.1?W
Date December 4, 2024; 5 months ago
6:44 am[1] (EST)
Weapon Suppressed 9×19mm pistol
(ghost gun in the Glock 19 specification, according to law enforcement[2])
Victim Brian Thompson
Motive Under investigation
Accused Luigi Mangione
Charges Federal
Using a firearm to commit murder
Interstate stalking resulting in death
Stalking through use of interstate facilities resulting in death
Discharging a firearm that was equipped with a silencer in furtherance of a crime of violence
New York

First-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism
Second-degree murder (2 counts)
Second-degree criminal possession of a weapon (2 counts)
Third-degree criminal possession of a weapon (4 counts)
Fourth-degree criminal possession of a weapon
Second-degree criminal possession of a forged instrument
Pennsylvania

Carrying a gun without a license
Forgery
False identification to law enforcement
Possession of an instrument of crime[3]
Brian Robert Thompson[4][5] (July 10, 1974 – December 4, 2024), the CEO of the American health insurance company UnitedHealthcare, was shot and killed in Midtown Manhattan, New York City, on December 4, 2024. The shooting occurred early in the morning outside an entrance to the New York Hilton Midtown.[6] The suspect, initially described as a white man wearing a mask, fled the scene.[1] The words "delay," "deny," and "depose" were inscribed on the cartridge cases used during the shooting. Thompson had previously faced criticism for the company's rejection of insurance claims, and his family reported that he had received death threats.

On December 9, 2024, authorities arrested 26-year-old Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, and charged him in a Manhattan court with Thompson's killing.[7][8][9] Authorities say that when Mangione was apprehended, he was carrying a 3D-printed pistol and a 3D-printed suppressor consistent with those used in the attack; a short handwritten letter criticizing the American healthcare system; an American passport; and multiple fraudulent IDs, including one with the same name used to check into a hostel on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.[10][11][12] Authorities also said his fingerprints matched the partial smudged prints that investigators found near the New York shooting scene.[13] Police believe that he was inspired by "Unabomber" Ted Kaczynski's manifesto Industrial Society and Its Future (1995) and motivated by his own personal views on US health insurance.[14][15]

Mangione was arraigned in Altoona on December 9, 2024.[10] After waiving extradition in Pennsylvania, he appeared in a federal court in New York City on December 19.[16] On December 23, he was arraigned in the New York Supreme Court and pled not guilty to New York state charges.[17] Mangione has been indicted on eleven state charges and four federal charges; the charges include first-degree murder,[a] murder in furtherance of terrorism, criminal possession of a weapon, and stalking.[18][19] United States Attorney General Pam Bondi directed the federal prosecutors to seek the death penalty in Mangione's federal case.[20]

Thompson's death received widespread attention in the United States and led to polarized reactions.[21] Several public officials expressed dismay and offered condolences to Thompson's family, while many used the event to call attention to the practices of the US health insurance industry. Opinion polls have shown that American adult respondents are more likely than not to find the killing unacceptable, with younger and more left-leaning respondents more likely to view the killing as acceptable or to sympathize with the killer. On social media, reactions to the killing included widespread contempt and mockery toward Thompson and UnitedHealth Group, sympathy and praise for Mangione, and broader criticism of the American healthcare system and health insurance industry – primarily regarding claim denial practices.[22][23] Inquiries about protective services and security for CEOs and corporate executives surged following the killing.[24]

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> UNH <<

Yes, it sure has been clobbered. It's tempting to pick up some -


>>> UnitedHealth stock sinks, touches 5-year low after new report reveals possible Medicare fraud probe


Yahoo Finance

by Myles Udland

May 15, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-stock-sinks-touches-5-year-low-after-new-report-reveals-possible-medicare-fraud-probe-140124899.html


UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock fell as much as 17% Thursday and closed down over 11% lower, touching its lowest levels in five years and marking a more than 50% drop over the last month as negative headlines for the insurance giant continue to add up.

Thursday's plunge follows a new report in the Wall Street Journal released late Wednesday that said the company is facing a criminal investigation related to possible Medicare fraud.

In a statement on Wednesday, UnitedHealth called the story "deeply irresponsible," referring to a "supposed" investigation. UnitedHealth added in its statement that it stands by the integrity of its Medicare Advantage program.

On Tuesday, the company announced its former CEO, Stephen Hemsley, would replace Andrew Witty, who had been CEO since 2021, in a surprise move that sent shares of the company down nearly 20%. The company also pulled its 2025 forecast in making the executive change.

Wall Street analysts said following the leadership and forecast announcements, the company is unlikely to receive the benefit of the doubt from investors until some semblance of stability can be offered.

Thursday's sharp reaction to the latest negative developments for the company is another case in point.

As Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani noted earlier this week, the company's challenges are many: increased costs, political pressure over its size, and scrutiny by the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice are all weighing on the business.

Congress has also put the spotlight on its market power as a large pharmacy benefits manager (PBM). Furthermore, the company has faced questions about its use of artificial intelligence in claims processing and a large cybersecurity attack on its Change Healthcare subsidiary.

The company also suffered significant public backlash following the killing of former executive Brian Thompson in December, and investors are suing the company for downplaying the impact of that tragedy. Questions about claim denials and fury about overall insurance industry practices were directed at UnitedHealthcare, UnitedHealth Group's health insurance business, in the aftermath of the killing.

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[fung_derf]

Would $UNH be the monster of all contrarian picks now?

[gfp927z]

Derf, Nice going with SEZL :o)

I looked at them a while back and their business sounds very interesting, they have great numbers, big margins, ROA / ROE, rev and earnings gro, etc. What put me off was the huge short position (26% of float), but a lot of those shorts may have covered today (?) Looks like a very promising stock, I'm wondering if it gets a near term pullback / consolidation, or might instead blast right through the Nov high on its way to 100 (?) An interesting LT buy / hold idea -



>>> Why Sezzle Stock Was Sizzling Today


by Jeremy Bowman

Motley Fool

May 8, 2025


Key Points

Sezzle posted blowout results in its first-quarter earnings report.

The BNPL company's revenue growth more than doubled and its margins expanded.

Sezzle seems to have differentiated itself in the crowded BNPL market.

Shares of Sezzle (NASDAQ: SEZL) were on fire today as the buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) platform delivered strong results in its first quarter and raised its guidance.

The quarter is the latest evidence of strong momentum in the business, and the stock was up 51% as of 1:24 p.m. ET.


Sezzle soars

The fintech company said that gross merchandise volume (GMV), or spend on the platform, jumped 64.1% to $808.7 million, with customer purchase frequency up to 6.1 times in the quarter from 4.5 in the quarter a year ago.

That drove revenue up a whopping 123.3% to $104.9 million, which crushed estimates at $64.8 million.

The company had 658,000 users in the quarter, and delivered strong results on the bottom line as well. Operating income jumped 260.6% to $49.9 million, giving it an operating margin of 47.6%. Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings per share jumped from $0.22 to $1.00, which was miles ahead of the consensus at $0.32.

CEO Charlie Youakim said, "Our investments in innovation and consumer experience drove new highs in engagement and performance in the first quarter. Stronger consumer activity and better-than-expected repayment trends propelled quarterly earnings above our expectations. These positive developments give us the confidence to raise our 2025 net income guidance by nearly 50% to $120 million."

What's next for Sezzle?

Sezzle is clearly gaining market share rapidly in the fragmented BNPL space, and has some key differences from other BNPLs, including that it gives users the option to choose whether their data is reported to credit bureaus, meaning it appeals to users who don't want to risk hurting their credit scores.

The model appears to be resonating, given the skyrocketing growth, and management raised its guidance as well, calling for total revenue growth for the year of 60%-65%, up from 25%-30%. It expects earnings per share to reach $3.25, up from a previous level of $2.21.

Based on that forecast, Sezzle still looks very reasonably valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 25. The stock could easily move higher from here if its rapid growth continues.

<<<



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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> Itochu <<

That's been one of Buffett's favorites for several years, along with 4 other similar Japanese companies (list below). Some of the Yahoo stats are in Yen, so have to divide by 144 (approx) to convert to dollars. I had these several years ago, but some brokerages will charge a commission to buy/sell (Schwab), and some won't execute the trade at all (Vanguard). I think Fidelity had 4 of the 5 stocks commission free, but that was several years ago. Buffett said he basically wants to own these stocks 'forever', and Munger also praised them, saying they are so cheap it's almost like free money.

Itochu seems to have the nicest LT chart. That's the one I'll probably get (small position), assuming Fidelity still has it commission-free. Being foreign companies, I think the dividends payments are reported on 1040 Schedule 3 (going from memory), which is a single page form so no big deal. There might conceivably be some other reporting requirements (?), but I don't remember any problem when I owned them several years ago.


Itochu Corp (ITOCY) - Diverse conglomerate (47 Bil) (Japan) (Berkshire) -------- 3.1% Industrial

Marubeni Corp (MARUY) - Diverse conglomerate (24 Bil) (Japan) (Berkshire) -- 4.2% Industrial

Mitsubishi (MSBHF) - Diverse conglomerate (53 Bil) (Japan) (Berkshire) --------- 4.3% Industrial

Mitsui & Co (MITSY) - Diverse conglomerate (47 Bil) (Japan) (Berkshire) --------- 3.1% Industrial

Sumitomo (SSUMY) - Diverse conglomerate (23 Bil) (Japan) (Berkshire) --------- 5.3% Industrial



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[fung_derf]

You posted something about this company.....

About ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCY)

The history of ITOCHU Corporation dates back to 1858 when the Company's founder Chubei Itoh commenced linen trading operations. Since then, ITOCHU has evolved and grown over 150 years. With approximately 100 bases in 61 countries, ITOCHU, one of the leading sogo shosha, is engaging in domestic trading, import/export, and overseas trading of various products such as textile, machinery, metals, minerals, energy, chemicals, food, general products, realty, information and communications technology, and finance, as well as business investment in Japan and overseas. For more information, go to www.itochu.com

The financials I'm seeing have a (T) after them....is that for TRILLIONS?
These corps look massive.
I also note they pay a solid dividend. If I own this, am I having to file extra tax forms for the income?? I've had this with German companies and it cost me a ridiculous extra fee to my accountant. Not to mention, getting the tax info back is a pain.

[fung_derf]

Thanks. That's easier viewing than what I look at.

I don't know how this all gets settled if every time the market goes up due to rumor of agreements, Trump shoots it down.
I'm starting to wonder whose side he's on.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Some of the non-US markets have come back toward their highs a lot faster than the US. The All-World ETF (VEU), Europe (IEV), and Pacific (VPL) are not far from those highs. The Emerging Markets (EEM) and China (FXI) still have a way to go, but recovery-wise, the US appears to have lagged them all.

Hopefully the US is getting its mojo back. I figure once some tariff deals are announced, much of the angst and uncertainty will be clarified. A South Korea deal next week (per Bessent) could be a key calalyst. Fwiw, I upped the stock allocation again, to 15%, which is my self-imposed max limit. Will keep fingers crossed next week :o)

Btw, not sure if you've seen this site (Finviz), but they have some very useful features -


Finviz - https://finviz.com/futures.ashx




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[fung_derf]

Yeah....$VTI was it.
It's down YTD.

Index	Price	Change	% Chg	% YTD Chg 
 MSCI Emerging Market**	1092.98	-3.07	-0.28	1.63 
 Japan Nikkei 225	35705.74	666.59	1.90	-10.50 
 Japan Topix	2628.03	35.47	1.37	-5.63 
 Hong Kong Hang Seng	21980.74	70.98	0.32	9.58 
 China Shanghai Composite	3295.06	-2.23	-0.07	-1.69 
 Taiwan Taiex	19872.73	393.92	2.02	-13.73 
 S. Korea Kospi 100	2546.30	23.97	0.95	6.12 
 Australia ASX 200	CLOSED	CLOSED	CLOSED	-2.34 
 Singapore Straits Times	3823.78	-8.14	-0.21	0.96 
 India SENSEX	79212.53	-588.90	-0.74	1.37 
 Brazil IBOVESPA**	134580.43	2364.36	1.79	11.89 
 Chile Select**	7998.60	76.09	0.96	19.20 
 Mexico Bolsa**	56382.00	615.42	1.10	13.87 
 Venezuela SM**	221703.70	-4018.00	-1.78	85.71 
 

BTW, Trump is denying any softening to China of his stance.

[gfp927z]

Derf, Vanguard has these (below), and I think iShares has some similar offerings -

All US stocks - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

All World stocks (non US) - Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS)

All US and World - Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)


Others -

International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI)

International Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIGI)

And a bunch more -

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/list/etfs?assetclass=equity&filters=open




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[fung_derf]

I dunno. China blinks.....Trump blinks.....it's the Cuban Missile Crisis of economies.

I'll bet if Trump backs down, it will be hidden or spun wildly. Not like him to ever admit he made a mistake.
The Shanghai Index still looks bullish. Much more so than the S&P 500.

OK, I feel dumb for not knowing this, nor never looking into this, but is there an Index or ETF that covers ALL U.S. companies only?
In looking it up I'm seeing DWCF, but this doesn't work?
Can't believe I've never looked nor cared to before. Especially since I follow all other Countries.

I guess $VTI is it, and I do track that.

[gfp927z]

Derf, China blinks? It looks that way, although still early. South Korea deal coming next week, according to Bessent. And more deals coming in 3-4 weeks, per Trump. Fwiw, I moved the stock allocation up to 12% (from 10%). Will keep fingers crossed :o)


>>> China eases some US tariffs as Trump sows confusion on state of talks


Yahoo Finance

April 25, 2025


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-china-eases-some-us-tariffs-as-trump-sows-confusion-on-state-of-talks-191201613.html


US and China tariff tensions continue to dominate the focus, with signs of deescalation mounting even as the broader state of relations between the countries remains unclear.

On Friday, reports emerged that China quietly rolled back tariffs on some US semiconductors, easing pressure on its tech sector, along with certain US pharmaceuticals. Bloomberg reported that Beijing is also weighing tariff relief on medical gear and chemicals.

The developments come as China has struck a publicly defiant tone and President Trump sowed confusion by claiming that he had spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which Beijing denied.

"China and the US are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs. The US should stop creating confusion," the Chinese Embassy in Washington wrote on social media.

Trump claimed that his administration was talking with Beijing, even as he declined to specify who took part in negotiations. "It doesn’t matter who 'they' is," he said Thursday.

Even as the bluster continued, the signs of a walk back boosted Wall Street hopes for broader tariff deescalation after an intense back-and-forth between the world's two largest economies. China raised its duties on imports of US goods to 125% from 84%, while US tariffs on Chinese imports have ballooned to "a 125% reciprocal tariff, a 20% tariff to address the fentanyl crisis, and Section 301 tariffs on specific goods, between 7.5% and 100%."

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a US-South Korea trade deal could happen next week, praising South Korea's approach. In an interview with Time magazine that was published on Friday, Trump said he expects many trade deals to fall in place over the next three to four weeks.

Investors are also focused on other key tariffs, as well as delays and exemptions. Trump is reportedly planning an exemption on some auto parts levies after suspending duties on some consumer tech, even as he insists these tariffs will eventually come to fruition. The White House also ordered a probe into truck imports, paving the way for tariffs on the sector.

The baseline 10% tariff that went into effect on April 5 remains in place for all affected imports into the US.

<<<



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[fung_derf]

Well yeah....from the sounds of it, what you were doing was wacky! a few shares of lots of stocks...that's unmanageable.
A quick count and excluding mutual funds, annuities and any bonds....I think I have 109 currently held stocks.

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> own way too many companies <<

I had the same problem, once having over 200 different stocks, yikes. I narrowed it down to 34 currently, so alot more manageable. These have the best LT charts and numbers, and a fair number are owned by Buffett.

It's starting to look like Trump is backing off on his extreme 'scorched earth' policies, so I figure it might be time to get the stock allocation back up a little. I'm currently at 8-9% in stocks, with a max allowable of 15%, so still some dry powder left on the stock side -

5% -- Core (34 Individual stocks)
10% - Flex (S+P 500)
__________

Total max - 15%



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[fung_derf]

I recall looking at PANW along with a couple other companies. Perhaps it was you who recommended them? I believe I went with one of the others but can't recall who.
I don't know if I still own it, made money or lost, or why I liked it better?
I had a guy recently tell me, instead of buying new companies, he wanted to add to his older ones. I think that's what I should be doing. I own way too many companies currently

[gfp927z]

Derf, >> ZS <<

In the broader Cybersecurity sector I had some PANW and FTNT, but haven't really followed the sector too closely. Looking at the numbers for ZS, it has negative margins and ROA / ROE, and negative Net Income, so that would automatically eliminate it from my list. PANW and FTNT are both profitable and have better LT charts, so they were the ones I picked, but don't currently own them.

CYBR is another one in that sector with a decent LT chart, but like ZS it has negative margins and Net income, so therefore would be disqualified. Most of these tech areas require more specialized knowledge than I have, so I just go by the LT charts and numbers, and figure that puts the odds in one's favor. Also, owning some S+P 500 index ETFs provides lots of exposure to the tech sectors (31%). Fwiw, here are the individual tech related stocks I have (below), albeit modest positions -


Apple (AAPL) - Smartphones, computers (3.5 T) (Berkshire, 26%) --------------------------- 0.4% (Technology)

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - Business outsourcing solutions (108 Bil) ----------- 2.1% (IT Services)

Microsoft (MSFT) - Software (1.9 Tril) (Gates) ------------------------------------------------------ 1.1% (Technology)

RELX Plc (RELX) - Information based analytics and decision tools (74 Bil) (UK) ----------- 1.9% (IT Services)

VeriSign (VRSN) - Domain name registry services (Berkshire) (20 Bil) ------------------------ 0% (Technology)

Verisk Analytics (VRSK) - Data analytics solutions (35 Bil) -------------------------------------- 0.6% (IT Services)



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[fung_derf]

Take a look at $ZS and give me your thoughts.

[fung_derf]

This was sent to me this morning. Glean from it what you will....

The Arrow DWA Tactical: Balanced Fund closely follows the DWA Balanced investment model. At the end of March, the strategy had approximately 35% in U.S. equities, 28% in fixed income, 12% in international equities, and 24% in alternatives. The Arrow DWA Tactical: Balanced Fund (DWAFX) fell -0.09% in Q1 compared to a -1.43% decrease for a 60/40 proxy.

U.S. equities struggled in Q1 as the S&P 500 fell -4.27%. Our U.S. equity sleeve underperformed as allocations to large and mid-cap growth led the market down. Our sector portfolio performed in-line with the market though which helped as it carries most of the weight. The sector portfolio sold technology hardware, home furnishings, construction & engineering, industrial power production & energy trading, construction machinery & heavy transports, trading companies & distributors, apparel retail, asset management/custody banks, and semiconductors over the quarter. In turn, it bought drug retail, health care REITs, tobacco, food retail, health care distributors, multi-sector holdings, insurance brokers, automotive retail, and data processing & outsourced services.

International equities had a much better Q1, as the benchmark gained +6.31%. Unfortunately, DWCR underperformed a bit but still made +5.85%. The falling dollar has been the story of international equities this quarter. This provides a tailwind for international equities, which typically have to buy commodities in dollars using their own currencies. This also makes U.S. goods cheaper for international companies and consumers. The portfolio sold India and Australia and bought Colombia and Poland at the end of the quarter.

Fixed income performed very well in Q1 (+2.78%). Our sleeve underperformed a bit (+1.69%) as interest rates continue their erratic moves. At the end of the quarter, the portfolio owns long duration treasuries, inflation protected bonds, emerging market bonds, short duration treasuries, high yield bonds, and corporate bonds.

Gold was the best performing asset class for the quarter (+19%) which helped offset some other areas of the portfolio. The real estate ETF (ICF) also did well (+2%) as value-related sectors outperformed during the quarter.

We believe that a real strength of this strategy is its balance between remaining diversified while adapting to market leadership. When an asset class is weak, its exposure will tend to be toward the lower end of the exposure constraints, and when an asset class is strong, its exposure will trend toward the upper end of its exposure constraints. Relative strength provides an effective means of determining the appropriate weights of the strategy.

[gfp927z]

Derf, One thing with the waste companies is the huge potential liability risk from environmental damage lawsuits, ground water toxicity, etc. The companies would quickly be bankrupted, but I figure this isn't too likely since what will modern society then do with its waste disposal? So decade after decade, the 'powers that be' look the other way. A lot of these waste companies started out with Mafia / organized crime connections, so that's another aspect. But just about every industry has ethical issues, from big pharma, to mining, to energy, defense, food, you name it. The junk food coming out of Coca Cola and McDonald's has probably done more to wreck the population's health than any other factor. But this is what stock investors have to choose from.

The ESG crowd try to clean things up, but their funds usually own lots of pharma companies, one of the most crooked sectors there is. And the Green Energy stocks they love require huge amounts of mineral like lithium from open pit mining operations all over the world. Even buying CDs is suspect, since the issuing banks are usually crooks, and buying Treasury bonds supports the crooked US government. So investing is basically one big cesspool when you get down to it :o(



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[fung_derf]

I believe you are right. I thought I bought a waste management company last year, but can't recall which one. You can tell I've got complacent.

[fung_derf]

Not to mention, these insurance companies are just great, if raising rates annually and denying claims is the way to huge profits.
I'm finding out right now my insurance company has added a new clause into my homeowners policy that they hid in the 100 page addendum they sent me this year. They want to pro rata my roof AND make up the age of the roof

[gfp927z]

Derf, The waste management stocks have great LT charts, are recession proof, and are also getting into the recycling side so are acceptable for inclusion in ESG funds. While ESG is on the back burner with Trump in office, it will likely return in subsequent administrations. Bill Gates has sizable positions in WM and RSG.

In addition to Insurance, Buffett has exposure to other Financial Services sub-sectors, including credit cards (AXP, MA, V). I haven't added AXP yet, since V and MA have nicer charts, but with AXP being one of Buffett's biggest holdings, I'll need to get some. Moody's is another Berkshire financial stock with a great LT chart.

In the broader 'Financial data / stock exchanges' subsector is CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). It has a great LT chart, and was not affected much by recent market turmoil, in part because it's a beneficiary of the 'green light' Trump has given to crypto. A lot of that will be traded on the CME.

On the tech side are IT Services stocks ADP, RELX, VRSK. I don't know the stocks all that well, but their 10-15 year charts speak volumes, and their 'numbers' look good :o) Same with the auto parts stocks AZO and ORLY -- phenomenal 15 year charts, and the 'numbers' look good, so I figure what's not to like? :o)




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[gfp927z]

Derf, >> Insurance <<

Yes, insurance is where Buffett has a very strong presence, and it's a great business to be in, as evidenced by the phenomenal LT charts of these companies -- a steady upward trajectory. The insurance broker segment has the best charts (AJG, BRO, MMC, AON), and as brokers they merely sell the policies, and don't take on the claim risks. When a lot of claims happen (natural disasters, etc), the brokers will benefit even more as more people / businesses need policies.

The property and casualty insurers also have great LT charts (CB, PGR, RLI, ORI, WRB). Not quite as steady as the brokers due to the claims risk, but they benefit tremendously from the 'float' of steady cash they get from the premiums, and the income it generates when invested. This is one of the keys to Buffett's huge success -- Berkshire's insurance businesses provide a steady flow of cash from the 'float', which Buffett puts to work generating profits. So a great business model. One insurance area I've been avoiding though is health insurance, due to the ongoing big problems with Medicare Advantage, etc.



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