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The person REALLY wanted those 250k though; I had a bid when OTC opened today and he bid more, so I increased my bid above his and he raised further (I reduced my bid at that point though)
Doesn't answer who sold though, but it was one big chunk of 250k
I believe the break-even is for Merkur to trade at 2/3 of OTC.
Assuming SIAF will retain 36.6% post distribution (I'm still going to call this speculative, but it is within the realm of possibilities) and using the 0.3707 TRW/SIAF (which if wrong, but it doesn't really matter since the ratio will remain the same)
Keeping the Merkur-shares;
0.3707 TRW + retained 2*0.3707 in SIAF = 1.1121 TRW-shares/SIAF
Selling Merkur and buying OTC
0.3707 TRW (from Merkur) + 0.66 * 0.3707 TRW (from OTC with a 1/3 premium, hence 1/3 less shares then what were on Merkur) + 2*0.3707*0.66 = 1.1121 TRW-shares/SIAF
Now this is based purely on TRW-shares! I.e this means sacrificing some cash dividend and - even worse - future CA, HU, SJAP etc. It also ignores future dilution (or buybacks). And, as stated, it is based on SIAF retaining 36.6% after distribution.
I wonder if the sell-off on OTC is shareholders who have read the PR on Merkur and believe the ex date for OTC is over as well, if there is dumping, or if it is the MMs (unaware of the TRW-distribution) that are taking us down.
We do trade at a decent profit compared to ATL, so there might be some people who want to secure their gains, but it still is rather confusing to me.
Oh, I'm saturated already
I would strongly advice people against purchasing for money they need in the short-term (or medium term) since there might not be any exit opportunity, but I should (...) be able to sell these shares with a nice profit once we get the ex date for the cash dividend (which should come around the time the ex date on OTC for the TRW-shares comes, maybe before, maybe at the same time, maybe after). They are still entitled to a 29.4% yield... (with 2x5 cents that is)
So you're saying that they don't reply to questions about the ex date on the TRW-distribution on OTC because of the typhoon? Sorry, but that's pure BS... (they have also stated the expected cost from the typhoon btw)
There never is... What has that to do with earnings Q3 and/or the cash dividend?
I don't think that is the case; the information about the ex date is readily available on Merkur. The PPS didn't really drop that much on the ex date, so it might be drifting instead. I assume many bought some extra shares for the TRW-distribution that they now want to get rid of.
I'm more surprised that they don't see that Merkur now is trading way below OTC, but maybe we're all following this forum and hence everyone knows that there might be a reason why OTC hasn't dropped yet.
The PPS on Merkur might drift until we get a PR regarding the ex date for the cash dividend, but it should stop at some level - although I'm not sure at what level.
hmm That would be a good deal - if the ex dates are different.
OTC closed at a 26% premium over what OTC closed at, so the difference isn't negligable, but for those who feel brave the risk/reward might be good.
The cost basis of SIAF-shares might become negative if one applies even a remotely proper valuation of TRW, and it will be a mess anyways. If we do lower our cost basis for SIAF then we might get a tax deduction from capital losses if you sell now, which wouldn't be in the tax authorities interest (and this will last at least 2-3 years!)
I think I'll end up writing a comment on my tax returns and leave it up to to the tax authorities to decide
Did they say for how long? It would normally take a day or three to transfer, no? So transferring right after the ex date on Merkur might be messy, but shouldn't be an issue if you transfer 7 days from now - unless we will have a different ex date on OTC that is... (or maybe they will refuse to transfer any shares before the payment date either way?)