I believe the break-even is for Merkur to trade at 2/3 of OTC.
Assuming SIAF will retain 36.6% post distribution (I'm still going to call this speculative, but it is within the realm of possibilities) and using the 0.3707 TRW/SIAF (which if wrong, but it doesn't really matter since the ratio will remain the same)
Keeping the Merkur-shares;
0.3707 TRW + retained 2*0.3707 in SIAF = 1.1121 TRW-shares/SIAF
Selling Merkur and buying OTC
0.3707 TRW (from Merkur) + 0.66 * 0.3707 TRW (from OTC with a 1/3 premium, hence 1/3 less shares then what were on Merkur) + 2*0.3707*0.66 = 1.1121 TRW-shares/SIAF
Now this is based purely on TRW-shares! I.e this means sacrificing some cash dividend and - even worse - future CA, HU, SJAP etc. It also ignores future dilution (or buybacks). And, as stated, it is based on SIAF retaining 36.6% after distribution.
