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Blarcamesine restores ER waste-clearing functions.
Alzheimer’s patients are hanging in there with blarcamesine.
Present, and future AVXL value gains.
What if a Big Crash...?
Price Decline
I see that the NASDQ continues to slide; taking with it AVXL.
The average cost basis of my several thousand AVXLs is a bit under three bucks. Will be interesting to see how close to that the share price declines; until the positive clinical results are released sometime in the future.
From the start of my incremental acquisition of my AVXL position, about a half-decade ago, I recognized that getting a new drug, with a new MOA (mechanism of action), treating central nervous system diseases, would take time; many years. But we are getting ever closer. Top line date (TLD) results from the concluding Parkinson’s disease dementia trial is likely to initiate the AVXL share price climb, if it doesn’t start with the Alzheimer’s TLD. The Rett study data will be the third horse in the Anavex trifecta.
2023 will be Anavex’s year. I’ve waited this long, can wait longer. For both patients and stockholders, the wait will be rewarded. All depends on where one chooses to peer; at the near-term day to day share prices, or the ones a year out? Knowing the Anavex science, I confidently take the long perspective.
Matches my share price projections.
Blarcamesine may obviate the cholesterol factor.
First is best? Uh?
Old science versus new science.
But the fog needs to be cleared....
The blarcamesine safety factor.
Yes, plausible reasons why Missling and company have been quiet regarding a big Parkinson's disease dementia study, an anticipated Phase 3 study. Data from the very successful Phase 2 study, coupled with the ensuing big Phase 3 Alzheimer's study might seal the deal without a Parkinson's dementia disease Phase 3.
Unmentioned in all of this intelligent speculation is the additional factor of blarcamesine's utter safety. No adverse events (side effects) in any murine (lab rodent) or human trials --- VERY rare in drugs working inside the central nervous system. One of the reasons for long, big Phase 3 trials is to prove not only that the drugs being tested are efficacious (actually work), but, at the same time don't induce side effects that cause other severe, complicating outcomes.
The demonstrated blarcamesine safety factor, especially on the long Phase 3 Alzheimer's study, will be a big factor allowing approval without a Phase 3 for the Parkinson's cohort.
Cocaine and the sigma-1 receptor.
Main problem is compromised autophagy, not wastes themselves.
But why not in younger people, then?
“But, what’s an Avatar?”
NOT easy (for the untrained) to believe.
Missling can’t change anything right now.
Only one target is accepted.
Today, where’s the evidence for MOA failure?
Labeling error. Off by power of 10.
Eventual (5-yr) Anavex investment yield estimations.
Purchased, over the years, with discretionary funds in my budget, is my holding of several thousand shares of AVXL, Anavex Life Sciences Corp. These were long-term investments, not short-term trading vehicles. So, from time to time I try to estimate what the future returns from my AVXL position might be. Here’s what I just punched into my spreadsheet. (None of this is intended or should be used as investment advice; merely my personal and interesting value projections.)
In my spreadsheet, in cell A1, I entered the number of AVXL shares I putatively own, 1000. Below that, in A2, I entered the number of outstanding AVXL shares circulating in equity markets, which iHUB states is 76,920,000.
In A3, I enter the number of patients (in the US and Europe) that, in five years, will be taking blarcamesine, for a diversity of indications, Rett syndrome, Parkinson’s disease dementia, and Alzheimer’s. There will be new indications, with perhaps the biggest being general geriatric disease prophylaxis (disease prevention). Of course, the number entered in this cell will vary, depending on whatever I project as rational. Right now, in the US about 6 million have Alzheimer’s. I’ll presume that 4 million have it in all of Europe, giving a patient count of 10 million. Just to stay conservative, I’ve not tried to speculate on the number of Americans and Europeans who will be treated with any form of Parkinson’s disease. There will be a good number of these; several millions. But, for now, I’ll stay solely with Alzheimer’s projections.
Cell A4 has the most contentious number, Anavex’s annual revenues from each blarcamesine patient. To be sure I’m in the ballpark, I’ll presume a mere $1000.
Cell A5 is the resulting annual revenues for Anavex. Multiply A3 x A4. 10,000,000 x $1000 = $1,000,000,000 (one billion dollars).
Cell A6 will be the annual revenues for each Anavex share. Divide A5 by A2. $1,000,000,000 divided by 76,920,000 = $130.03 per share
Cell A7 is a decimal, indicating the percent of revenue drop-down that goes out as a per-share dividend each year. If ten percent of annual revenues goes out in dividends, the entered number is 0.1. If 25%, it’s 0.25.
Cell A8 will be the dollars of dividends distributed for each owned share of AVXL. Multiply A6 x A7. With these entries, $13.00 will be the annual per share dividend I’ll receive.
Finally, A9, the desired number, the number of dollars in annual dividends I will receive. Multiply A8 x A1. If I owned 1000 shares (I have multiples of that), and there were a 10% dividend drop down rate, I’d receive $13.00 x 1000 = $13,000 in dividends every year.
All of these data variables are very conservative. Very likely, far more than 10 million people, globally, will be treated with blarcamesine each year. And Anavex’s income from each patient will probably be greater than $1000.
But even at these conservative, low-range numbers, I will live very well from the dividends my AVXL holding will yield in a few years. When I punch in larger ones, I’m astonished. There could be many millions more than 10 million taking the drug, and annual revenues from each patient may be far beyond $1000. Until blarcamesine gains sales and use approval, I can patiently wait. I, and millions of real patients, will be well rewarded.
What, of course would be the eventual value of my AVXL holding? First, try to estimate the share price of AVXL. With a dividend of $13, what is a reasonable resulting share price? I’m a biologist, not an equity investment expert. I’ll let others give a reasonable resulting share price range.
But, all of this looks out about five years. As a long-term investor, not a stock trader, I gleefully click off of postings lamenting current AVXL share prices, lamentations of corporate media offerings, etc. I’m looking out to 2027. Things will be very different then.
But my truths are irrelevant.
Nerve conduits for disease.
Blarcamesine activation of the sigma-1 protein.
Blarcamesine works differently; with safety and success.
Once again, the positive Anavex science data.
I watched and listened to Dr. Hammond’s presentation on the status of Anavex Life Science Corps’ clinical and scientific data at the Needham conference. No, no new clinical results were released; all data have been previously presented.
As always, because I have a moderate AVXL holding, I wanted, again, to discover any negative data I’ve not factored into my long-term holding of my Anavex shares — all of which is dependent upon positive clinical outcomes.
I looked closely, but found nothing negative. In every one of the several clinical trials of blarcamesine (Anavex 2-73) aimed at central nervous system (CNS) diseases, no adverse events (AEs), side effects. So very different from existing and candidate CNS drugs; virtually all of which have AEs that inhibit or restrict therapeutic uses. Once again, as always before, blarcamesine proved (in humans, not just animal models) to be utterly safe, even at the highest therapeutic doses in the human trials. So rare for drugs acting in the CNS.
Safety was great. But were there therapeutic efficacies? Did the drug actually produce favorable therapeutic outcomes? Were those merely by chance, or were they statistically significant; actually caused by the drug, not mere chance? P-values in every case showed statistical significance. Simply, blarcamesine worked. It either stopped the progression of the disease being treated, or even reversed the pathological progression.
Safety and efficacy. I’m confident that with the completion of the on-going Phase 3 clinical studies, projected to be in the last half of this year, blarcamesine will be granted sales and therapeutic use authorizations. A year from now, Anavex Life Sciences Corp will be a recognized major pharmaceutical in the making.
Which means that I’ll never be selling a share of my AVXL position. I’m in my mid-70s. I’ll be rewarded in a few years with Anavex dividends. The shares will pass to my estate’s beneficiaries and to the philanthropies I will designate. Most importantly, the lives of tens of millions who would otherwise suffer severely from various CNS (and other) diseases will be spared such suffering and economic disaster.
Likability of a CEO determines stock prices?
No Amyloid Pre-Selling Required
Not a chance.
Alzheimer’s Cause: Wastes Across the Blood-Brain Barrier?
A new paper and hypothesis for the cause of Alzheimer’s just appeared. Simply, upon aging the blood-brain barrier is disrupted and various chemicals can then get into the brain and thereby cause Alzheimer’s.
But everything would be "safe."
How big is the atrial fibrillation market?
Is this a small or insignificant cardiovascular disease problem, or bigger?
Anavex will be bigger; beyond the CNS.
Ok, blarcamesine (Anavex 2-73) and its metabolite, Anavex 19-144, fixes heart beat rhythm anomalies. Anavex now has cardiac disease therapies — awaiting, of course, subsequent Phase 2 and 3 clinical studies. Soon enough, Anavex will be recognized for treating or preventing diseases not localized solely in the central nervous system. In time, a major, global pharmaceutical.
The patent tells that a Phase 1 study was done on 17 males:
Well, in both humans and C. elegans.
Anti-aging may be the biggest Anavex story.
One trick now, but in a year....
New Anavex Clinical Studies.
Anavex webpage text:
[insert-text-here]
Current Job Openings
Director/Senior Director, Biostatistics
Senior/Exective [sic] Director, Clinical Development & Medical Evidence
Director/Senior Director/Executive Director, Clinical Development
I clicked on each of these to see what they might reveal. My impressions:
1. Director/Senior Director, Biostatistics
“This position will have full responsibility for the methodological and statistical considerations in the design, implementation and conduct of clinical studies as part of the development program team.”
Very clear; Anavex intends to implement and conduct new clinical studies. New Anavex clinical studies to happen; beyond those currently in operation. Someone with a PhD in biostatistics needed to properly quantify new clinical data.
2. Senior/Executive Director, Clinical Development and Medical Evidence
“This position will have full responsibility for contributing epidemiologic expertise in the planning, design, implementation and analysis of drug development projects and evidence generation across the clinical development span.”
Clear, again. New clinical programs by Anavex; beyond those presently in operation.
3. Director/Senior Director/Executive Director, Clinical Development
“This position will have full responsibility for planning, implementation and daily operation of drug development projects.”
This person will direct and oversee all of the above.
Big things being planned for. Existing managers not up to the new tasks; new executives are needed.
Think not? Click on the URL at the top and read the details of each of these positions. I’ve mentioned just an opening summary sentence. A multitude of details are listed on each page.
So, is CEO Christopher Missling passing his time twiddling his thumbs; or is he and his team planning to run new clinical trials with the Anavex molecules, for additional pathologies? If so, are these new trials wide shots in the dark, seeing if anything happens? Or, does Missling have a lot of proprietary information that supports greatly expanded clinical trials, for new diseases and conditions? Ever since Missling made his tangential remark about the “Anavex iceberg,” lo those many months and years ago, I’ve always presumed that Anavex has copious amounts of pre-clinical data that indicate both safety and efficacy for a diversity of diseases and conditions.
Now, it’ll all come into play. Continuing new announcements in coming months and years. Sigma-1 receptor biology, modulated and facilitated by Anavex’s proprietary molecules, yielding safe, new therapeutic outcomes will be front-page news in 2022 and 2023; building upon the positive outcomes of the Parkinson’s disease dementia, Rett syndrome, and Alzheimer’s studies. Plan for it. Anavex obviously is.
MOA desperation.
Ok, Brain Swelling?
Not what the data show.