Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Present, and future AVXL value gains.

I'm only up 100% on my investment at this collapsed share price.

I, too, am not any sort of 'professional biotech investor.' I just checked where my AVXL holding stands. At the moment, it’s worth 166% of what I paid for it.

Think how rich we’d all be if we were professional biotech investors?

Like everyone, I scrutinized today’s announcement. Wanted to see what the risk was in my AVXL investment. Because I know that getting new drugs approved, especially those with unique, novel, heretofore unknown mechanisms of action (MOAs) takes many years, the progress Anavex is making toward getting blarcamesine approved is just about what I expected, if not a bit faster. I purchased my first AVXLs (using only discretionary dollars in my budget) about five years ago. Have added to that early position incrementally, when more discretionary dollars became available. I now own several thousand shares. From the start, I looked over the near-term horizon, thinking that for success I’d have to wait until about 2023. It would take years to arrange, conduct, analyze, and release the required Phase 3 clinical results; all of which build upon the extremely successful pre-clinical studies, in both humans and murines (lab rodents).

In all of this there has never been a negating clinical finding. Especially, compared to the other new CNS drugs targeting Alzheimer’s, or the many others acting in the CNS. No genetic, endocrine, teratogenic (birth defect) or other common adverse events, “side effects.” For the unknowing, blarcamesine is too good to be true. I works phenomenally in the CNS, restoring or promoting several crucial cell processes (autophagy, protein folding, genetic expression, etc.); without obviating side effects.

From today’s announcement, final (top line) data from the on-going Phase 3 Alzheimer’s trial are to appear in the second half of the year. In September or October, before those data are announced, all of the usuals will be posting their “Missling still can’t get anything done on time” pronouncements. Expect them.

Then, perhaps in December, the data will be released; they will be profoundly positive. The Anavex naysayers won’t be deterred. They’ll tell us that the share price will soon retreat, "As it does after every announcement." In the first week of January, 2023, they’ll be saying pretty much what they’ve posted today. "Missling, again, fails.” Etc.

But, finally, sometime in 2023, either the American FDA or the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration will approve blarcamesine for therapeutic use against Alzheimer’s. It will take only 8th-grade arithmetic to then accurately envision Anavex’s new revenue streams. Sometime later in 2023, or early 2024, the AVXL share price will require three digits before the decimal. The perennial Anavex naysayers will note that "The share price will never get to $1248" (or whatever that big projection was).

Good enough. I can wait.