Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[skitahoe]

We know that the Analysts have AVXL at a target price of $40+, but what does that represent. Given the shares outstanding it's about a $5 billion market cap. If it were earnings based, and we warranted a P/E of 30, it would equate to earning about $167 million a year.

I don't know when we'll be approved in Europe, or when it may be extended elsewhere, but I believe it won't be long before we're earning a billion a year or more and the P/E of 30 or more is valid with earnings growing each year.

How high does the share price go on a billion a year in earnings? Let's assume we grow to 100 million shares outstanding, a P/E of 30 would give us a $300 share price. I can't say this is possible in 2026, we don't know how long it will take to add most of the other regulators, but by 2027 it would certainly seem not just possible, but probable. If by that time treatment of other indications are happening either with approvals, or off label based on anecdotal evidence, the earnings could grow dramatically higher IMHO. With sufficient anecdotal evidence insurance will pay for off label use of approved products.

Gary

[georgejjl]

NEW EUROPEAN PATENT for Anavex Life Sciences

EP4520842 - OPTIMIZED SIGMA-1 AGONIST METHOD OF RESPONDER SELECTION AND TREATMENT

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=EP451385612&_cid=P12-M8CD8G-07439-1

Good luck and GOD bless,

[boi568]

The difference, of course, is that traders are typically retail and buy and sell in equal measure. They simply add liquidity.

Shorts would like to burn the stock price to the ground -- apparently with your assistance for the right price.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Share buybacks make zero sense unless you have abundant cash flow and a lack of high return investment opportunities.

AVXL has neither.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

It's better than selling you out for a 10 cent rise like al the traders here.🤣

So you are basically selling the rest of us out for four percent.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

More trials started = more chips for negotiation.

Negotiate with the longest possible runway, then get all the trials going after the deal is done.

[LakeshoreLeo1953]

I do not think anyone here with a decent investing background is suggesting
LONG or SHORT positions are 100% "hedged",
It's a tool of diversification.
Personal use for me as a Retail investor against Macro events is VIX ETN.
My metric when in use is 10% of portfolio.
It's insurance as much as an outright pessimist.

[BDR10]

Getting approval and being the first one on the market is very important....BLAR seems like it would be very effective and cost efficient and once they're on that I doubt they would come off but to be first would fight off a lot of competition

[WolfofMia]

Image thinking people care about your lectures lol..

[Investor2014]

Yes that’s all true. Patent law is complex and intricate - well beyond a message board lecture.

[crescentmotor]

Nope, you should check the options open interest again. Spoiler alert: it’s nowhere near sufficient to hedge shit.

That seems correct to me. The total January 2026 outstanding call options only represents 2.4 million shares (way lower outstanding interest on all earlier call expiration dates) and the highest offered calls are $25 strikes. So by what means are over 20 million shorted shares being effectively hedged?

[north40000]

You are not using the word "valid" correctly/appropriately in your first sentence--"is valid" should be replaced by "extends the right to exclude others from practicing the claimed invention without authorization from the patentee". Patent claims can be determined to be invalid by a judge or jury in a court proceeding, or by an administrative agency( e.g., the PTO or ITC ), within that 20 year period from first filing date.
 I'll leave your use of "anywhere in the world" alone for now---do all countries in the world have laws governing patent grants/rights? Good question for "AI"?

[B60611]

Nope, you should check the options open interest again. Spoiler alert: it’s nowhere near sufficient to hedge shit.

[dia76ca]

Anavex has blarcamesine and A3-71. They will be used to treat, delay and even prevent Alzheimers, Parkinsons, Rett, FragileX, Schizophrenia and dozens of other CNS diseases. But the largest single application may be to prevent and delay brain shrinkage which occurs commonly as people are in their forties. Blarcamesine and A3-71 are like a statin for the entire body, but without the troubling side-effects! Europe will very likely approve blarcamesine for Alzheimers later this year. Applications for approvals in the UK, Canada, Australia and Asia will follow quickly. And A3-71 phase 2b trial results in Schizophrenia are due mid year 2025. When , and if, the FDA gets its act together both could and should be fast tracked in the US!

[Hoskuld]

Hi Lacey, yes more than puts. Puts are usually the way shorts generate cash month after month or week after week: they go short, sell puts and let time do their dirty work. But they, generally, also hedge using equity and call options: they buy OOTM calls to protect against extreme upside risk, and may own equity to limit their upside risk. Hedging is all about limiting risk - the term comes from the old practice of growing crops in several locations in the same area so that if any one field is flooded out, or subjected to fire, or some other disaster, that the other fields are likely to still provide enough to prevent disaster. (The fields were all surrounded by hedges to separate on field from another.)

[Lacey1]

Please explain the hedge. This is more than puts?

[Hoskuld]

Shorts are hedged so they have little to fear.

[Investor2014]

I posted that recent article because there was a story in Danish news about PROTACs and clinical trials going in breast and prostate cancers that appear to give very promising early results. These are hospital research trials, not company sponsored.

Agree could be an adjunct treatment for complex indication incl. AD and A2-7 if both meds are approved.

[boi568]

I'm not going to put too much weight on it, but it does represent a change in direction.

Frankly, if I were a large short In Anavex and paying attention to its developments, I would be slowly backing away. The risk/reward ratio should already be scary.

[Hoskuld]

boi, not really - the short position has not been shown to be decreased yet - but that is doesn't mean the institutional position is not still increasing. The short position is still near all-time high (just off that high at last report.)

[IhidfromtheX]

I've always been 50/50...I can't forecast the thoughts of regulators...

[hnbadger1]

https://www.medicandle.be/authors/laura-garcia-pupo-phd/

Thanks Guzzi62

[frrol]

Lol yes and the posts.

[frrol]

PROTACs are an anti-plaque and anti-tangle approach similar to the MABs, with the hope of fewer SAEs. Will be interesting to see how they fare in the clinic. The approach seems to have real but pretty limited benefit. Might be part of the therapy puzzle though.

[catdaddy]

Yes, it is difficult for charlatan fools to obtain favorable emojis! Obviously it troubles you.

[LakeshoreLeo1953]

There is always the input of youth claiming to have acquired
experience beyond their teen years.
toss in the emoji lemmings (sorry for duping. I read top to bottom catching up)
and it is quite a throng.
I'm sure you will hear from them/him also.

[Investor2014]

interesting approach to eg. AD treatment / prevention thar has roots in cancer research: https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.15212/AMM-2021-0001

[Investor2014]

A utility patent anywhere in the world, as I know, is valid for 20 years from the priority date (first filing). The FDA may give exclusivity for up to 5 years beyond the 20 years patent protection that prevents marketing of generics.

[WolfofMia]

At least you are replying to your own post on this one, 25k and counting.

So many contributions so so so many! Lmao

The disqualification team, always knows what everyone knows.

Don't forget! They know you don't.

That's all you need to know.

Now follow me.....

[Hoskuld]

Thanks for posting. I thought H-W gave 30 months max but was wrong. Max protection is 14 years - which is plenty of time. What rules apply for ROW?

[Investor2014]

Yes and it continues be substantiated by the emoji trail.

[frrol]

It's alarming. Most folks here are easily misled.

[Investor2014]

On top of Missling having no fallback revenue opportunities without EMA approval from current trials, a share buyback would be just about the best way to erode the company's cash balance and ability to fund new trials.

[Investor2014]

Also each national granted patent attracts annual maintenance fees to keep them enforceable!

So much BS posted here with ignorant confidence by folks who just claim to know stuff!

[Investor2014]

Incorrect! "You do not have to file in individual countries"

Protecting your Inventions Abroad: Frequently Asked Questions About the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT)

See below in BOLD:

1) What is the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT)?
The PCT is an international treaty with more than 155 Contracting States.1 The PCT makes it possible to seek patent protection for an invention simultaneously in a large number of countries by filing a single “international” patent application instead of filing several separate national or regional patent applications. The granting of patents remains under the control of the national or regional patent Offices in what is called the “national phase”.

The PCT procedure includes:

Filing: you file an international application with a national or regional patent Office or WIPO, complying with the PCT formality requirements, in one language, and you pay one set of fees.

International Search: an “International Searching Authority” (ISA) (one of the world’s major patent Offices) identifies the published patent documents and technical literature (“prior art”) which may have an influence on whether your invention is patentable, and establishes a written opinion on your invention’s potential patentability.

International Publication: as soon as possible after the expiration of 18 months from the earliest filing date, the content of your international application is disclosed to the world.

Supplementary International Search (optional): a second ISA identifies, at your request, published documents which may not have been found by the first ISA which carried out the main search because of the diversity of prior art in different languages and different technical fields.

International Preliminary Examination (optional): one of the ISAs at your request, carries out an additional patentability analysis, usually on a version of your application which you have amended in light of content of the written opinion.

National Phase: after the end of the PCT procedure, usually at 30 months from the earliest filing date of your initial application, from which you claim priority, you start to pursue the grant of your patents directly before the national (or regional) patent Offices of the countries in which you want to obtain them.

You and anyone else who claims to hold granted national phase PCT patents should be well aware - go check your lawyer / patent agent invoices!

[PsuLion]

Sorry folks. I meant 273. I’ve been invested since 2015. Long enough that I should know the name of our primary candidate.

[BakedLangostino]

The Hatch-Waxman Act allows for patents to be extended up to 60 months.

Scroll down to #3 for more information.

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/cder-small-business-industry-assistance-sbia/small-business-assistance-frequently-asked-questions-patent-term-restoration-program

[catdaddy]

I’m sure whatever it was you patented, it was life changing for the world.

[georgejjl]

Anavex Life Sciences should wait until it is making a profit from the sales of blarcamesine before it considers buying AVXL shares on the open market. That should happen at the latest during 2026.

Good luck and GOD bless,

[bcblbrbm]

Just for George and Leo:
This would be the perfect time for Dr. Missling to initiate a share buyback. The resultant levitation of our shareprice would force the short cabal to cover hurriedly. This would further drive the price higher.
If done with enough firepower (I understand we are flush with a 3–4-year runway, so no problem there) we could drive the shorts to full capitulation, never mind a possible doubling of your holdings worth.
The final spin-off benefit to such a move would be the joy of owning a stock that is destined for greatness with no short interest! Be still my heart.

[boi568]

I'll note that short interest was consistently rising here until the significantly increased institutional ownership was reported. Then it decreased.

[georgejjl]

Expect a HUGE SHORT SQUEEZE!!! for AVXL stiock!!!.............SOON!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

[LakeshoreLeo1953]

Without SOMEONE lending stock to enable those positioning short to grow their holdings

How can you/any anticipate or expect a squeeze?

The Science will determine this Company’s success or failure, NOT a retail investor hedging.

[Hoskuld]

The real trick, apparently, is the agonism.

[Robot14]

You are correct Baked. In my previous life I have several WO patents that cover the rest of the world.
US, EU & Japan are the big ones, then WO almost everywhere else.
You do not have to file in individual countries, Kund is clueless or just lying. Hard to tell which with him.

[dia76ca]

Blarcamesine has a very high probability of approval. Just compare it to the Mabs which EMA recently reluctantly approved. Blarcamesine is more effective. It is far safer! It is less costly. And as an oral drug it does not have the time consuming and costly administration protocols. Patients and care-givers will love it. And it will save government health care systems billions! Win, win, win!

[Hoskuld]

Maybe shorts are covering - but we don't see that yet. Maybe there is a partnership we will hear about soon - but we have no signs of that yet, either.

This could be an absolutely epically good investment. We just have to wait for a few developments.

[williamssc]

It's A-273 aka Blarcamesine. Longs here think it has a very good chance of approval

[williamssc]

Blarcamesine high chance of approval helps with better sleep. Also turns out to show significant slowing of brain atrophy.

[Investor2014]

0% as there is no 2-71 up for approval from Anavex.