U.S. equity futures suggest a mostly unchanged open on Friday, signaling that stocks may carry over Thursday’s muted tone as investors await critical inflation figures.
Market participants appear hesitant to make bold moves ahead of the release of consumer price data—a key input to the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions—due shortly after the opening bell.
The figures, embedded within the report on personal income and spending, represent the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and could influence expectations for next week’s rate decision.
Economists anticipate headline consumer prices to rise 0.3% in September, mirroring August’s increase. Meanwhile, core prices, which exclude food and energy, are expected to climb 0.2%.
“A higher-than-expected reading could give the Fed pause for thought about a pre-Christmas cut, while an in line or lower number would likely give markets further confidence about such a move,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
Still, with the long-delayed report covering September data, the immediate impact on policy expectations may be limited.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders currently see an 87.2% probability that the Fed will trim rates by another 25 basis points next week.
Later in the session, investors will also parse the University of Michigan’s preliminary December consumer sentiment reading. Forecasts call for a rebound to 52.0, up from 51.0 in November.
Stocks struggled for clear direction on Thursday. The major indexes fluctuated around the flatline before ending the day narrowly mixed: the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 added 0.1%, and the Dow slipped 0.1%.
This indecision followed a volatile start to the week, during which stocks initially pulled back from last week’s strong gains before bouncing through choppy trading on Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence in another Fed rate cut largely helped offset Monday’s decline.
Traders also looked past a Labor Department report showing initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a three-year low. Claims dropped to 191,000, down 27,000 from the prior week’s revised 218,000 reading. Economists had expected an increase to 220,000.
Despite the surprise, analysts cautioned against overreacting to a single week’s number. As Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten noted, “Initial claims can be subject to big swings at this time of the year, so we won’t read much into one week’s number.” She added that claims continue to signal “a relatively low pace of job losses despite recent layoff announcements.”
Sector performance was mixed Thursday. Computer hardware stocks mounted a strong rebound, with the NYSE Arca index up 3.0% after Wednesday’s 1.7% drop. Brokerage stocks also gained ground, rising 1.8%. By contrast, housing stocks lagged, sending the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index down 1.6%.
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