Early data from third-party sources suggests that consumer spending during the key 2025 holiday shopping period is broadly matching the more modest expectations set heading into the season, according to BMO.

U.S. online retail sales for Cyber Monday increased an average of 6.8% year-over-year across multiple reporting firms — an improvement from the 5.2% growth rate recorded in 2024.

Black Friday e-commerce spending climbed 7.5% on average compared with a year earlier, though that pace was slower than the 10.6% growth seen in 2024.

Sales on Thanksgiving Day also reflected a cooling trend, rising 4.2% year-over-year, down from 8.4% growth in the prior year.

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