Crude prices advanced more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, buoyed by OPEC+’s decision to keep production steady through the first quarter and by renewed concerns over potential disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions.

By 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT), February Brent futures were up 1.2% at $63.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed 1.2% to $59.27.

OPEC+ maintains production stance

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) reaffirmed on Sunday that it will hold off on any production increases until at least the end of the first quarter of next year, keeping in place voluntary reductions totaling about 3.24 million barrels per day.

The alliance signaled it is taking a cautious path amid inconsistent demand patterns and what it views as a possible oversupply risk heading into 2026.

The group also approved a framework to assess members’ maximum production capacity between January and September 2026, a step toward setting new baseline quotas for 2027.

“This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines,” ING analysts said in a note.

Market weighs new supply threats

Crude markets also digested fresh supply risks stemming from recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about Venezuela, including the possibility of closing U.S. airspace to the country.

“This escalation between the US and Venezuela has the US carrying out strikes on boats it claims are carrying drugs, while also building its military presence nearby,” ING analysts said.

“Venezuela exports around 800k b/d, of which most of the crude oil will head to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply at risk.”

Additional upward pressure on crude came after multiple weekend attacks on Russian energy facilities disrupted export flows.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a key route for Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea, suspended loadings following a naval drone strike that caused significant damage to a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

“Shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged around 1.48m b/d so far this year, up roughly 200k b/d from last year, as the expansion of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan supported exports,” ING analysts added.

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