U.S. stock markets opened higher on Monday, ending June on a strong note thanks to optimism around trade deals and potential interest rate cuts. As of 9:35 AM ET:

• The Dow Jones was up 175 points (0.4%)
• The S&P 500 rose 15 points (0.3%)
• The NASDAQ gained 50 points (0.3%)

All three major indexes are set for solid monthly gains, boosted by a new trade deal between the U.S. and China. This raises hopes that more agreements could be reached before President Trump’s July 9 deadline.

Adding to the positive mood, Canada canceled a planned digital tax on tech companies just hours before it was to take effect. The move is seen as an effort to restart stalled trade talks with the U.S. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to meet with Trump to work toward a deal by July 21.

Interest Rate Cut Hopes Rise

Investors are also increasingly betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly by September. Weaker-than-expected inflation data and a drop in consumer spending in May have fueled expectations. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, but falling tariffs could give the Fed room to cut rates again.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that if inflation doesn’t rise this summer, rate cuts are likely. Markets now see a 74% chance of a rate cut in September, with a smaller chance it could happen as early as July.

Attention now turns to the June jobs report, due Thursday (ahead of the July 4 holiday). Economists expect 120,000 jobs to have been added, down slightly from May’s 139,000.

Trump’s Tax Bill Moves Forward

Over the weekend, the Senate narrowly approved a procedural vote (51–49) to begin debating President Trump’s major tax and spending bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislation combines tax cuts, changes to domestic programs, and border security funding.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate version would increase the federal deficit by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Despite plans to pass it before July 4, the bill faces resistance in the House over its cost and speed of passage.

Oil Prices Hold Steady

Oil prices remained stable Monday following reduced Middle East tensions and the possibility of another OPEC+ output increase in August. As of 9:35 AM ET:

• Brent crude was flat at $66.78 per barrel
• U.S. crude (WTI) dipped 0.2% to $65.36 per barrel

Despite a sharp drop last week — the biggest since March 2023 — oil is still on track for a second straight monthly gain of over 5%. OPEC+ is expected to meet on July 6 and may approve another production increase.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Some portions of this content may have been generated or assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) tools and been reviewed for accuracy and quality by our editorial team.