Replies to post #319 on SwissINSO Holding Inc. (fka SWHN)

[tykundegex]

I think your first tranche is more accurate, but with different numbers. I doubt the panels will cost that much (to the developer). At least, if they do.. they won't be competitive.

Here's a company in China doing PV for $100/m2 ($0.50/W), althogh subsidized:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Module-Costs-Dip-Below-50-Cents-Per-Watt-in-JinkoSolars-Strong-Q4

At any rate, I would expect SwissINSO's licensing deal to be per m2, and not per Watt.

Also, we must consider only annual installed PV surface area, not total. The projections are for 800 million m2 to be installed annually by 2015 (ref: http://www.emirates247.com/business/energy/uae-firm-launches-world-s-first-colour-solar-glass-generating-energy-2013-11-18-1.528461)

So if Emirates gets 10% of their target (of 10%), that's 1% of 800 million, or 8 million m2 (annually). At 50% of their target, it's 40 million m2.

At $1-2 per m2, SwissINSO would stand to see annual revenues of $8-16 million, or $40-80 million.

It's just a holding company with very low cash requirements, so even on the low end of these estimates, it can be a profitable business very quickly. Today's market cap is $25MM.

Speculative investment, perhaps, but I like the odds at 17c/share today.