I think your first tranche is more accurate, but with different numbers. I doubt the panels will cost that much (to the developer). At least, if they do.. they won't be competitive.
Here's a company in China doing PV for $100/m2 ($0.50/W), althogh subsidized:
So if Emirates gets 10% of their target (of 10%), that's 1% of 800 million, or 8 million m2 (annually). At 50% of their target, it's 40 million m2.
At $1-2 per m2, SwissINSO would stand to see annual revenues of $8-16 million, or $40-80 million.
It's just a holding company with very low cash requirements, so even on the low end of these estimates, it can be a profitable business very quickly. Today's market cap is $25MM.
Speculative investment, perhaps, but I like the odds at 17c/share today.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.