Replies to post #106389 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

Zeev...I agree 100%...however the psychological and emotional variables can affect stocks short term no?

[mike_m]

Re: <<So far in the US, not one affected SARS patient died. SARS is a non event.>>

Try telling that to China. Estimates are 1/2 to 1 percent lopped off the economy.

I don't see victory being declared until the contagion dies down in China without having materialized elsewhere.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

that was the best SARS-related post ever. it's almost as if some folks *want* this thing to be a real problem.

[kevinb]

Zeev.

I think there is a major qualitative difference between Malaria and SARS. I have worked in Malarial areas and while I was never infected myself, the attitude of the people around was - no big deal, pop a couple of rifampacin or something and get back to work. The bottom line being that Malaria was not something you worried about if you had access to proper medical treatment.

SARS does not compare with that. For now, at least, if you get it, you have a significant chance of dieing regardless of the level of medical care available.

Now hopefully the current efforts to keep a lid on it continue to be successful, in which case it will be a non-event as you say. But while I am hopeful, medical professionals I know say don't take that for granted yet.

Kevin

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Zeev: How did you come up with 30%? That is not my understanding of the mortality rate for malaria where 90% are reportedly in Africa:

"Malaria is the most common and deadly parasitic disease in the world. Malaria is an ancient disease. However, environmental disturbance, malnutrition and the failure of drugs once used to control the disease have conspired to make malaria as serious a problem now as it was during the first half of the twentieth century. In any given year, six to nine percent of the global population [300-500 million cases annually] will suffer a case of malaria. Most who fall ill survive after an illness of 10-20 days but 1-3% of those who contact P. falciparum do not and are killed.
Africa is terribly affected, and accounts for over 90% of reported cases of malaria. About 10% of hospital admissions are for malaria, as are 20-30% of doctors' visits. As bad as that is, some experts foresee as much as a 20% annual increase in Africa's rate of malaria-related illness and death. No Western disease is nearly so prevalent or growing at anything like that rate."

http://www.malaria.org/

"The World Health Organization estimates that yearly 300-500 million cases of malaria occur and more than 1 million people die of malaria. About 1,200 cases of malaria are diagnosed in the United States each year. Most cases in the United States are in immigrants and travelers returning from malaria-risk areas, mostly from sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent."

It seems WHO shows a 7% mortaility rate for SARs to date (514/7183):

http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/2003_05_09/en/

These stats are from Nov.1, 2002 to date. Moreover, the disease is spreading.


You said SARs is a non event. Techically speaking, for the US it is a non-event for now in that there are no US deaths. But for Asia, SARs is an event for sure. And the issue, then, is not whether it is a US non-event but rather what will be the impact of the event in Asia on the US?

[Joe Stocks]

>>SARS is a non event.<<

"Malaria is a non-event."

As quoted by Silas B. Hed, March 14,1881

[greg s]

Zeev,

In corroboration, just yesterday Intel's Otellini said China was strong:

Intel's Ottelini sees strong China demand-report
May 09, 2003 04:34:00 AM ET


FRANKFURT, May 9 (Reuters) - Chip giant Intel's (INTC) President Paul Otellini sees strong demand in the key Chinese market and expects a recovery in the semiconductor industry this year, German financial daily Handelsblatt reported on Friday.

Otellini told Handelsblatt in an interview that Intel's new wireless chip Centrino had met the group's full expectations and that Chinese demand remained strong.

"The Chinese are only buying the latest technology, that is spectacular. For us, China is the most important market in Asia and it will remain that way," Otellini said.

Intel, the world's number one maker of microprocessors that are the brains of personal computers, reiterated on Wednesday its forecast for second-quarter revenue of $6.4 billion to $7.0 billion.

Otellini said he was confident about Intel's prospects.

"The past year has been so bad that the semiconductor sector can only improve this year," he added.

Otellini said the group's new Centrino chipset -- aimed at taking advantage of the rapid growth of wireless communication -- already met Intel's expectations.

"Centrino has already fully met our expectations". REUTERS

© 2003 Reuters

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[jdaasoc]

SARS will be big event in third world where infection control and public health awareness is nearly non-existant. It may only be a sub 1% GDP event but deaths will be very large in places where AIDS, malaria and other diseases that William and Melinda Gates Foundation are focusing on.

In Hong Kong, they just recently found out that most lung damage after 1st week of infection is caused not by the virus but by the bodies immune defenses. It seems like some of the immune suppression steroids may be of useful treatment with further study.