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Replies to #1343 on Charts SYSTEMS
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northam43

11/27/13 11:55 PM

#1345 RE: gdl #1343

I believe we are pretty much in agreement that a major correction (Monthly) will not likely occur until around April/May time frame and that we are due for a minor correction (Daily) likely in the next couple weeks.

Where we differ is on when will the 1900 level be reached. You have now indicated that reaching it by the end of the year is unlikely, but you believe that it will likely be reached early next year before a major correction. I believe the 1900 level probably won't be reached until after a Monthly correction is completed, sometime in the May/June time frame, taking the SPX down to the 1600 - 1650 level which will be a 150 to 200 pt drop or 10% correction, then the end of next year we see 1900 and possibly by the end of 2015 we see the 2000/2200 level or the start of a long Bear market drop between 50 to 60%.

The cycles will show us the way and give us plenty of warning, we just have to follow them, and not second guess or believe it's going to be different this time around. Yes, the rubber band may expand a bit wider, but it will break. My shorts that I have been buying the last few months will eventually be profitable, even if the SPX reaches a high of 2200, a drop of 50% takes the SPX to 1100 and 60% takes it to 880.

Bottom line: Until a Monthly correction is completed, gaining new ground will be slow. We will be able to buy & sell the same real estate over and over during 60 min, Daily & Weekly corrections.