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Foxridge -
Here is the documentation for my system:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AJpL_AOMJ7iRH0ZcanVp6lI6EmFf9RtFS9FsSGRndFs/edit?usp=sharing
Here is the link to the SPX Cycles database:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MM-R0bBKysIw4P231E9jasa6g9QAI4fVUgRUgDvkgeQ/edit?usp=sharing
Hey GLENO34,
Hope all is well. Digging through old boards here. Trying to see old systems that work. Turns out the 320 is fairly common place. Might have never known if not for the CCI board of yours. Reading David Larew's blog on sc. He has some good ideas. One poor idea was leaving here because as soon as he searches his name this um.. message board.. post will be in the top of that list. This site is enduring time. Would really like to see all the great chartists get together and go nuts on one board constantly.
Cheers
I am replying to my own post from one year ago. I find it amazing that no one changed their views even as their premise was proven false. I always look back at my written thoughts and try to correct my mistaken assumptions. I was ridiculed for just posting my trend assumptions without showing actual bets. I suppose if I had W. Buffett's ear I would be more interested in his take on the future than his daily bets.
As for my future expectations it seems I am in line with Roubini's. 2016 is my target for the big fall. Everything to date seems to fall in line with that analysis. EU and China have the political will to reverse their slow down. When all major nations are rising the debt pressures will rise with rates.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini--u-s--equities-will-be-strong-until-2016-133934757.html
Gleno
you and I and probably some others can remember the dot.com days
and when it started to fall, even those that knew it was gonna go
down were amazed at the lack of bumps or ups on the way down.
This is what trapped allot of people. Those that played the down,
got out and tried to play few up moves only to get waxed and then
tried to average down and it kept on going until they were wiped out
After all this UP, it will be very hard to keep a solid down side
bias without venturing back into the bull side from time to time
and that is what will be the undoing of allot of people.
They cant stomach taking the loss because after all there has
to be a bump to the upside somewhere. IT just cant go straight
down after going straight up
yea, right
I got the loss carry forwards to prove that it dang sure can
I have no idea...Sure a lot of guru's now calling for 1950 to 2000..No other place to make any money I guess...Everyone going to the market...No one will believe how fast this all will come down when it starts...but I have no idea from where...
So, is this "THE" top???
Check it out. Looks like they'll tag that spike in the RUT. Amazing!!!
A responses to your points.
Housing is not experiencing price increase and it is not related to weather. inventory is once again building up. banks already have the spread needed to lend and they are doing just that. There is no reason why rates will go above 3 percent on 10 year note anytime soon. The good news is behind us. Wage growth has nothing to do with technological advances, only job growth does. We are already a service nation where the manufacturing jobs are already high tech. Once again there is nothing going forward that will change this mix to improve this situation. Consumer debt is once again revamping at a high rate. we don't need anymore interest rate hikes for banks to lend. Auto loans are already in a dangerous territory with very questionable loans. Credit card use is way up, home values have peaked for now, and savings is once again going back where it was prior to the crash.
You have to look at the high productivity today combined with low costs and ask yourself how much better will it get? If you increase revenue without increasing wages or other offsetting assets you only create a more indebted individual. Look at how much debt is held by individuals and how much it increased over last 4 months. that is the major reason for this stock market spurt. Will it continue?
As for your notion of jobs being taken over by outside nerds, just not so. In fact the unemployment rate for college grads in age group of 25 to 35 is 4 percent. We are the envy of the world on high-tech and other nations constantly steal our proprietary secrets. The outsourced jobs are JUST to save money on wages. You keep making excuses as to why companies pay so little. Sorry it just doesn't make sense. I am in a field where they do it now all the time. Computer programmers are abundant here in US. In fact we are usually more adapt at making change and much more productive. The cost savings is too much to pass up even with the domestic advantages.
I have never seen any legitimate reason why companies, and top 5 percent individuals, have managed to reap huge profits on the backs of everyone else. The rules and lax laws is continuing to favor this group. I see no evidence otherwise. In fact the cost cutting was exclusively on the backs of the poor and out of work. You would think that common sense dictates that you prop up the middle class and poor to help revamp this economy. Instead we are heading for a caste system.
I will guarantee you that the result of all this will not be pretty. If tomorrow, or 3 years down the line, we will fall into another depression era. Enjoy the good profits while you can. Indeed we are going into the last wave before a 20 percent haircut. SPX of 1950 should easily be reached this round. Maybe 2000+. It should also happen in a very short period of time, perhaps 2 months. My long term take is that we hit a bear run this year followed by 2 more years of growth. After that it seems very unlikely given the political direction is so obvious.
You could very well be right to stay invested, but your assumptions are just not based on real verifiable data, and not based on past experiences. As for inflation, it will not happen for a long while, no matter what the economy does. If we do manage to heat up, the world market could not sustain a whole 100 basis point move from here, let alone real inflation.
In the future you should read the government data relating to credit, debt, savings, etc... Try to be objective and not look to cherry-pick reports that conform to your notion of the world. This is not the start of the 80's. We can't sustain this debt growth going forward. something's got to give.
it's like buying on sale!!!
Correction,
Whoops. Wrote backwards what I was thinking.
Restated: What is your opinion when the theoretical exceeds actual during a situation like this?
My thinking was that it is an opportunity and I should Buy right off the bat.
Fresh numbers at the close are 1.05 for actual and 1.50 for theoretical.
optionsexpressguy,
Good time for you to show up.
I should of checked in earlier this morning.
Earlier, I saw that CLF Mar 22 Calls were selling at 0.95 while theoretical was at 1.32 (I do account for risk-free rates and annual dividend within the calculation, but they don't matter much). Was thinking of buying those Calls because of that mismatch (and CLF is reversing upward, though my indicator would not indicate a Buy because of an intraday lower low of the underlying). If I did buy the Call, it would be a new position, not a closing of my current Call sale.
What is your opinion when the actual exceeds theoretical during a situation like this?
you should have kept your trap shut and he wouldn't have schooled you bud!
JLS, quit posting to me please
snoot,
Do you know that the link you just gave me, where you talk about a CLF sale, is dated 10/28/2013?
Do you know that the CLF purchase that you made, and which we are supposed to be discussing, is dated 11/07/2013?
Do you see a problem here with the dates? There is one. The sale is older. The purchase is newer.
This is the third link that in a row that you've given me which has nothing to do with the discussion.
I've already given the message number to go to for your CLF purchase that we are supposed to be discussing. Try going to Post #7566 at your regular message board where you are the moderator. Then please try to find the date when you sold that position. I suspect it is in your trade records somewhere but you never posted it, or it wasn't in the title of the post, so I can't easily find it.
With all your confusion, I'm a little concerned that you bought CLF and have forgotten about it while thinking that you already sold it. You could actually still own it and not be aware of that.
Then, after all your confusion and like some child you call me a nut job and it appears in the title of your post. That's childish. It's also not accurate. How do you expect me, or anyone, to react?
So, when you find a sale of the CLF purchase made on 11/07/13, please let me know and try to be polite about it.
gdl,
Toward your question, yes, I got the shares. At the time I made the phone call, I didn't have sufficient funds in the account to buy shares, and if I did I still would not want the shares because I had other things in mind that I wanted to do. At the time of expiration, a week or so later, I could have funds available depending on other ongoing trades (such as shares of my stocks being assigned away -- with my usual response that I buy them back on the first dip, then sell more Calls). As it turned out, there was sufficient cash in the account at expiration, but my intention was to use that money elsewhere. The stock that was assigned to me was BRCM. That was OK, but I preferred options-only trades for that one. So, I sold OTM Calls on that and dumped it that way at their expiration.
My main concern which prompted me to make the phone call was that I didn't want them to use margin to pay for the shares assigned to me. I don't want to use margin for anything, ever. I was initially pretty pissed off, then I decided that perhaps they misunderstood me or perhaps they do it differently depending on the account cash situation. I don't like to blame people for things that happen to me, so I decided that I should have been more specific when I called. Instead of complaining, I'll just accept it as a lesson. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
I wouldn't conclude that housing prices aren't moving up anymore. That's very regional, and it's very seasonal. Most of the country is having a very bad winter. Housing is usually sluggish during the winter, and it's going to be a lot more so this year. On an annual basis, the national average single-family housing price during the crisis was the first time since data on that has been collected that prices declined (I'm pretty sure that's what I heard and/or read). Maybe it was the first time since the 1800s, whatever. Regionally there have been many declines -- I now, I experienced a couple -- but not nationally.
I think cash will be freed up as a result of interest rate increases, not wage increases on a per-person basis. Why rate increases? It will be more profitable for banks to loan. Those rate increases will happen slowly as the Fed loosens up slowly, and as the economy improves slowly.
Have you been watching the Ultimate Factories series on CNBC? I have. It's very interesting. If you haven't seen that program, you should look up the schedule. They just started a new series, or it's going to be any day soon. That spread of technology is one very good reason why wage growth is sluggish. It's why our citizens need to get more education if they want to find jobs. Another reason for slow wage growth, at least in technology, is that we still allow work visas. That was a practice that was started during the years when there was a shortage of high-tech workers, and for some reason that program has not been halted (at least the last time I checked with some foreign friends that I have as a result of that program). The people that come into the country as a result of that program are virtual slaves. Don't take that wrong, they get paid well. But a lot of the money they earn is sent back home to their families. The reason I call them slaves is that to work here they must have a corporate sponsor and remain employed at all times. That adds additional costs to a company so many of them don't want to do that. Added to that: anybody on that program who looses his job must find another job within 30 days or they have to leave the country. That's the slave-prisoner aspect of it. Does it take jobs away from citizens? You bet, and almost all are high-paying jobs.
There is no requirement to increase margins to increase economic growth. Economic growth can come about through increases in economic activity. Economic activity is the amount of money multiplied by the velocity of money. Money is cash and credit. Money can be that which is already here, or which comes here from outside the country. I think the last I read, 2015 will be the year when this country starts exporting natural gas in very large quantities. That will decrease imports and increase exports -- a double benefit to cash flow, and it will also create a lot of new jobs just for that new export business.
If you don't exercise your calls at expiration, and in the money, you received the underlying stocks? Strange. Is that what you just told me?
Regarding the mention of credit, the last 4 months data confirms consumers are borrowing at a huge rate, something not seen for the last 5 years. I didn't get a chance to get a breakdown. I do know credit card charges are a part of it. As for banks lending, yes they are revamping their old habits. the breakout of the 10 year note allowed enough spread for banks to be profitable on lending. Wages are dead in the waters. Home prices are not moving up anymore. Mortgage rates are starting to cause a slowdown in sales. Refis were manly done over the last 5 years. The past 4 months of market action corresponds to personal borrowing increases. This is not sustainable given the fact that individuals are borrowing from an already high level of debt.
I am convinced that without relief to free up cash, such as wage increases, refinancing, home value increases, there will not be a sustained retail environment. Companies have squeezed out productivity to the max, as well as enjoying a low cost environment. They can only go down from here. Gross margins are very unlikely to improve from here. If companies refuse to share the profits with their workers this 5 year cycle will experience a bear market. The Obama care situation only adds to the companies reluctance to increase wages.
Having said all that I still see a new high develop in the next 2 months or so. Current drop seems milder than I expected. If we do not retrace to 1790 - 1805 SPX range than we should already be on the last leg up.
JLS, Here nut job, I posted the sell from the OCT 9 buy to you in fact. Your post afterward went on about how I should have held it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=93468391
I'm done with this.
snoot,
I'm nutty?
Check your links in the post you did earlier.
Anybody else who does will find out who is really nutty around here.
Those two links you posted were supposed to show a Buy and a Sell? Sorry for you. They aren't there.
Now you claim you've had four trades. Well, there's the one options trade which became worthless in two weeks. Then there's the one trade you started for which I just gave you the post number, but you haven't provided a link to where or when you sold that one.
When you figure out how to replace the other two links, which have no trades, then you can post links to these other trades which you don't link to.
JLS, you're getting nuttier by the day. You should smoke something and chill out.
By the way, I bought and sold CLF 4 complete round trips since the initial buy oct,9 The week before Oct 9 I posted the I H&S set up coming,
I also made some comments and charts the week or two after. Anyway, why am I having to justify when and where i did anything with you?
gdl,
Very good advice.
I'm addicted to learning new things, and I don't care where I learn them, so I'm off to check out Royg.
You know, this whole recent thing started as I was encouraging snoot to try doing things just a wee bit differently. That got all sorts of negative response. I thought I was being constructive.
I thought maybe snoot could respond to input from somewhere else. So I suggested he go to a very inexpensive site (that used to be free but would take a donation, now he's asking $100/yr) and the guy running it is becoming a legend and has been interviewed regularly by major national trading and financial periodicals. I followed the guy for two or more years at his site and can vouch for his performance. He mostly trades chart patterns. Well, snoot insulted the guy without even visiting the site. Go figure.
snoot, should you go on?
Well, whatever you're smoking, I don't want any. Maybe you should go on ... to a clinic.
Your Buy Link (Post# 7468): Says something about ideal I H&S. No indication of buy or sell.
Your Sell Link (Post# 7729): That says something about tagging lower tine. No indication about any trade. And you said you sold right at the top? Would the top be somewhere near the lower tine? I don't think so, but I'll give it a chance, a small chance.
Something seems to be broken, but I tried your links several times.
Here, let me help you out. You bought CLF on 11/07/2013. (Post #7566.) You didn't say what the price was. But you said "Bought CLF, Assuming a bottom is in I hit the target perfect" The trading range on that date was from 26.77 to 28.04, so I'll assume you got the mid price of 27.40. Golly, that's more than I paid.
I'm having a little trouble finding a post where you announced selling that. Maybe check your notes, maybe forgot to sell it?
gdl,
I know about the 3X and the 2X.
I had (have) a system for them that I traded for a number of years. I called it the Swap System. I used software to generate the trade signals because I'm too emotional to do it in real-time myself -- better to put rules in the software and let it tell me what to do. I could trade any pair of XLong/XShort, but for some reason I stuck with SDS/SSO, probably because they track better than the others.
The object of the system was to be either Long or Short the market, never in cash.
It's rather curious what you say about credit. Are you referring to card credit or ... ?
The velocity of money is way down, and that would indicate low credit writing at banks, and the accumulation of reserves (as the Fed wanted them to do).
A lot of mortgages have much lower interest rates now, and many mortgages have been refinanced at lower underlying asset prices, so that credit must be a whole lot less than before. Maybe?
And I hear the talking heads on CNBC talking nearly every day about consumers not shopping right now, so ...
I don't know.
I'm surprised the drop today didn't happen days ago. I took advantage of the rise in stocks by selling a bunch of Calls yesterday. I have more Calls expiring this weekend, and for the most part, their underlying stocks are above the strikes so today's drop made no difference whatsoever in my balance. I kinda like that and am getting very accustomed to it. In fact, for the stocks that are above Call strikes, I hope they drop a little more before the weekend so that they aren't assigned, and in that way I don't have to buy them back -- which I would do.
At least I assume some will be assigned this weekend. It actually does happen once in a while that stocks are not assigned away even though they are above strike by a small amount. That happened to me at an expiration earlier this month. I had PHM in two accounts; no shares were assigned in one account and only 40% were assigned from the other. I've even had the opposite happen; I had stock assigned to me that was trading a few cents below the strike of the Calls I bought. That surprised me because I had already called the broker to ask what they would do with profitable Calls if for some reason I didn't exercise them on expiration Friday. I assumed cash would appear, and the guy on the phone said that's what would happen. It didn't. Shares of stock appeared, and money to buy them disappeared. I guess I shouldn't complain, I didn't have to pay any commission, I got the shares a little cheaper than if I had to buy them, and the shares went up right away the next day. Later I decided they probably gave me the shares because I had the money available to buy them; otherwise, I would get cash coming in.
Q,
You also did the calculation incorrectly, but mine most closely displays reality as it will unfold over time.
You don't make these types of trades so you don't know how they are done or how they are reported to the IRS.
In reality, there are two separate trades, two separate calculations -- one for Puts, one for Calls. But it is perfectly fair to combine them into one result as I did (not as you did) in order to display the most probable outcome. That outcome will be reported to the IRS over a two-year interval because the Puts expire next year, not this year.
When options trades like this are initiated as a pair, it is acceptable to refer to them as being one trade rather than two trades, and to combine P&L into once concept (though they have to be reported to the IRS separately).
In these types of trades, the Puts aren't closed, they are allowed to continue to expire. So the closing price of the Puts should be shown as $0. They are never closed by buying them back. That was your major error.
I've done these trades before, so I can tell you pretty much what is going to happen and what the most probable outcomes of these two trades are going to be.
The most significant part of the trade will close sometime this year as I sell the Calls. I will never buy the Puts back, and they are not part of the gain calculation reported to the IRS for this year's trades no matter what happens to the Calls. The reported gain on the trade will be calculated as the difference between the cost of the Calls and the sales price of the Calls, then that result multiplied by the number of underlying shares. This will all take place long before the Puts expire next year. Never mind the fact that I sold the Puts this year and the money from the sale is either in my pocket or spent. But since the Puts were part of a paired trade, it is fair to account for the gain obtained by selling the Puts, and that gain offset the cost of the Calls.
It could be that near the expiration of the Puts, January of next year, ZNGA isn't doing very well and has dropped to the point that shares are assigned to me. That assignment becomes a separate transaction, the beginning of a third trade. That would also be the end of the Put trade. The gain that I received by selling the Puts would still be there, but that gain would be reported as next year's gain, not this year's gain.
The most probabe outcome is that the Puts will expire worthless, and it will be reported that way whether or not there is assignment. If there is any damage done due to the Puts, it will be that I paid the exercise price for the stock, not the market price for the stock. I have been assigned stock before, so I know how it works. Selling Puts for the sole purpose of being assigned stock is a common way that many traders use to acquire stock.
JLS, I have no interest in competing with you, but if you're going to post crap I guess I should respond.
OCT,9 buy right at the bottom
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=92832874
12,30 sell, right at the top
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95390152
Your 12,30 buy, the very next post as my sell right at the very top
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95412513
Should I go on?
Folks, stop with the ego trip. These boards broaden understanding of trading and method. No need to call others out. if you feel your betting style is better, or makes more profits with less risk, than say so without the "prove it" attitude. Royg1927 has a great track record using very short term option trades (day trades) with exceptional results. he doesn't berate or boast.
Move on!
You could also try the 3X ETF's. Some ETF's you can hold for a long time since the actual percentage moves pretty much reflect the real index. I have held the SPX ETF's for many months at a time, with little deviation to the actual percentage moves. A good number of these vehicles however is not for any long term bet.
As for the market it looks like we have a short drop that should most likely only last till Fri. or Monday. Still expecting 1790 - 1805 range.
If we do surge from there I would bet you that is the last wave before a nasty drop of 20 percent. Optimism is way ahead of reality. The amount of consumer credit these last 4 months was huge. Getting back to old habits, but without the advantage of starting from a solvent position. Savings once again depleted. If you do the math without real asset growth or wage growth earnings will take a hit. But I think I am ahead of myself here. For now it looks like a steady upward bias, leaning towards a steeper ascent.
snoot,
You're too generous in calling your options trade a long shot. It was an impossible shot. CLF had already made a 4-month high, and you assumed it was going to shoot very significantly higher in less than two weeks while the time value of your options is burning off.
You also bought CLF approximately 6 weeks earlier (than I bought mine), at only a slightly lower price but with the attitude it was at a bottom and would shoot significantly higher. I assume you still own it. Furthermore, since you haven't sold any Calls on it, you are making no active progress directed toward either getting your money back or making income from it. That's pretty foolish, don't you think?
Yes I did buy CLF, but not with the idea that it would go any significant amount higher. I bought it for the purpose of showing you how to trade it, and make money doing it. I decided to do it and give you the opportunity to learn something at the same time.
As I bought CLF, I knew it wasn't going higher (while you thought it was headed for $35 within two weeks) so I immediately sold the January 27.50 calls and brought in $1.17. Those expired worthless to the buyer on Jan 31.
Right away you should see a difference in my approach as compared to yours. Your approach is to throw a Hail Mary pass to a destination totally out of range. My approach is to recognize a significant risk and immediately reduce it. Your approach is to sit on your hands and wait. My approach pays a hefty monthly dividend through the process of selling Calls. Sometimes I refer to it as the pay-your-own-dividend method of investing.
The way I treat my trade is that while I am saving money in the CLF account, I should be receiving good dividends while I wait.
Your approach is to put your money in a CLF account that pays nothing.
After my fist sale of Calls expired I didn't immediately sell more calls because CLF had made a bullish reversal hammer candle a few days earlier, and broke higher the next day but proceeded to retest the low during the following days. My opinion at the time was that a double bottom would form, so I should wait for a rally off that bottom before selling new Calls.
Meanwhile, you were still doing nothing about your CLF shares.
The double bottom did form and CLF rallied to the high of 23.53 on February 14. That day was a Pythia doji day, but so was the previous day. So I could wait another day for confirmation of a top or continuation. But I decided not to wait because of the two sequential dojis and also the fact that my SR density chart showed significant overhead resistance at 24 as well as at 25, and the rally was also quite substantial off the bottom of several days earlier.
Therefore, on the 14th, I sold for $0.68 the March 22, $25 Calls. Now my total income from the Calls is $1.85. Your income for holding CLF shares is $0.
Even though your entry price may have been a dollar less than mine, by the time you get to break-even, I will have a significant profit while you are still at zero profit. And the longer it takes, the larger the difference will be between my position and yours.
Think about it. You might learn something about investing.
My way is investing. Your way is gambling.
JLS,
Lesson, don't count chickens before they hatch.
JLS, your last two posts are that of a full blown narcissist. You ridicule me for an options trade that I said was a long shot and only 1% of my account. You claimed CLF had bad fundamentals yet you posted a buy on my board of it and at the top price of 27 only to see it lose nearly 50% in the next weeks and somehow you're a smart trader? Now you'll claim that selling covered calls on it made it right, yet it's only pennies and you lost big on the trade so far. Well it looks like you chased off any worthwhile traders from posting and now you can post to the dumb liberals without any worry of anyone with any trading smarts to call you on any of your dumb posts.