I wonder if the market will agree with either of our scenarios.
The only reason I say that 1900 should happen before a sizeable correction is from a proprietary system by Rick Ackerman. He is by nature extremely pessimistic and has doubted the bull run throughout. His indicators however have allowed him to bet against his emotional inclination. His indicator shows a breakout and huge momentum expectations for another 1,000 points on the DOW. Like all systems they are not full proof. Using his extreme pessimism and concession that we will be going much higher, combined with a December Santa Claus affect, I am inclined to believe it happens sooner rather than latter.
We are up some 30 percent for the year, which is historically huge, so I have decided to see what type of correction we have next. In order for me to bet on this scenario the following has to happen: SPX hitting target 1818 - 1820. Only a 3 to 5 day correction not exceeding 1760. In that time frame a distinct 3 wave pattern must also be seen. If that were to occur I would be betting for the immediate up thrust reaction off that correction, finishing at 1900. We are not there yet so my scenario is still just a best guess until the market reveals its intention.
We both got fooled by the recent move, even though I was more bullish than you. I expected a sizeable correction to have happened a month ago.
The only thing I do know is we are in the late innings of this run. The more parabolic it becomes the more likely a blowout top and more likely a severe retrace. BUT, no the final top. That argument can change depending on how much further we go before a minimum 10 percent correction.
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