Replies to post #170248 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Agree in part; however, I forecast a gradual decline from peak levels rather than a parabolic boom and bust, as occurred with Incivek. The reasoning is in the seventh paragraph of #msg-92234861.

[DewDiligence]

…some companies (B-I, BMY) are already exiting the HCV arena…

These companies are halting drug-discovery work in HCV, which makes sense insofar as any drug discovered today wouldn’t be marketed for at least 5-6 years, by which time the existing regimens will be firmly established. Thus, I don’t think the pipeline-narrowing decisions by these companies support your thesis that the all-oral HCV market (in the US) will be a parabolic boom and bust.