Replies to post #170296 on Biotech Values

[north40000]

You said:

"...These companies are halting drug-discovery work in HCV, which makes sense insofar as any drug discovered today wouldn’t be marketed for at least 5-6 years, by which time the existing regimens will be firmly established...."

Does everyone think existing regimens are beyond improvement? Your posit effectively shuts down all innovation attempts in the field of HCV. I do not like that thesis, and do not believe it would come true.

[ciotera]

Re: HCV pipeline

These companies are halting drug-discovery work in HCV, which makes sense insofar as any drug discovered today wouldn’t be marketed for at least 5-6 years, by which time the existing regimens will be firmly established. Thus, I don’t think the pipeline-narrowing decisions by these companies support your thesis that the all-oral HCV market (in the US) will be a parabolic boom and bust.

I wasn't arguing that this supports the boom and bust trajectory. I was arguing that this indicates that HCV hysteria is starting to die down and people are starting to realize that long-term opportunity in this space is limited. If these companies thought that the opportunity was durable, they would not give up on this space and would try to improve their offerings to be more competitive.