Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Re: HCV

I don't have a specific prediction, but as I've stated on a few occasions, all these billions that are being thrown around, even if they materialize, will not have any staying power. Once the initial demand is satisfied, sales will revert to a declining trend and settle at a much lower level, like we've seen with Incivek and prior launches. Except now the companies won't be able to blame it on clinical trials or warehousing. I give HCV hysteria another 2 years. Interestingly, some companies (BI, BMS) are already exiting the HCV arena (some may say they are admitting defeat, I would argue they are finally starting to understand that this is not a very rewarding category as far as return on investment is concerned).