Replies to post #15232 on Progressive Stocks

[stills999]

Thank you for the input ... this is the type of fundamentals analysis that's really helpful. Could I indulge you in my thoughts more specifically?

1. Sales in April, May and June totalled 126,000 cases.

2. # of store listings from 3-4 months earlier (the lag it takes for a new listing to register sales) was about 10,000 locations.

3. There are now 14,000 store listings with 20,000 projected by year's end (seems reasonable given the trend).

4. 14000/10000 * 126,000 = 176,000 case sales based on listings today.

5. 176000*4 = 704,000 case sales annualized based on listings today.

6. There will surely be more than 14,000 listings and these numbers do not include Pulse so the 1 million annualized case sales forecast seems quite reasonable... distribution to Florida, for instance was only recently announced and I'm not sure the recent numbers include Safeway, which is indeed a major retailer. They turned down Costco which demanded a cheaper price.

I'm certainly not saying you are wrong, but wondering if this more specific information changes your outlook (and, if not, why)? I could be missing something so really appreciate the second set of eyes!

[stills999]

"5 to 8 times EBIDTA is typical for market cap in the beverage industry. Need 7 million minimum in EBIDTA right now to support current market cap."

Is 5 to 8 times for when the company is still at the rapid expansion phase or at later stages when revenue growth has slowed down significantly?

Suppose they were to become "just" cashflow positive next quarter but made ony $100 should the marketcap, depite rapid growth in sales, be only $500?!