Replies to post #12768 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[1millman]

zoobuffdoc, You just confirmed the reasons why I bought this. The PPS has been manipulated down in a very big way and while those that have held since $17 are feeling lots of pain, the manipulation has benefited those like meseilf that just bought in. Persoanally, I think it is a lottery ticket and while I only have 5,000 shares at this point I'm certain for at least a double by ADCOM.

[ziploc_1]

Zoo: You omitted NCE, whenever that comes...also interim results of Reduce-it...your price for a buyout at $30/sh in 2014 is far too low...I sold a heap of shares of PCLN when it was under $10/sh and the analysts said it was descending into bankruptcy. It is now over $900/sh. I learned from this mistake and am convinced not to let it happen again. I would be opposed to a $30/sh offer in 2014. The time for that offer has passed.

[yoyo88]

Sounds about right to me, but I would say 1 and 2 might be a couple dollars too low. My thinking is that the same MMs who have helped run pps down over the last few months will swing with the same momo in the other direction, only with Anchor being much bigger than our present scope.

I also think once pps gets high enough, the BO prophecies may become self-fullfilling, if you will, as pps climbs high enough to justify a reasonable premium. Say for example we need 15 to justify a 25 BO, and we are at 12, MMs may push higher knowing the end game.

At the risk of sounding like JZ and I share the same KoolAid, the patents have made NCE far less important than it was this time last year. But from the perspective of NCE being the final puzzle piece for a sale, I think it's huge. Perhaps less now with Anchor so near in the future, but this whole rundown has been predicated on NCE delays dictating their GIA path. Once that is behind us, it's a whole new ballgame.

As an aside, one silver lining of the dilution (depending on how you look at it) may be that the extra shares knock down pps enough in terms of market cap to allow an outright sale sooner, rather than later. I expected 32-35 before, I think 26-30 now.

[Whalatane]

Ahhhh Zoo ...Sunday morning speculation

My 2 cents .....first a nod to Ajax for calling the recent bottom ...onward and upward .
Price speculation
Zoo IMHO it's still tied to scrips and tier 2 pricing .
Scrips continue to trend upwards and will accelerate on Anchor approval for all the reasons WM Jenkins laid out . ...BUT wide tier 2 coverage is essential . The current coupon program ends at year end at which time Vascepa will cost over $7 a day for 4gm dose if you have no coverage ( Kaisers current position )

Without Insurance coverage BUT using the Vascepa coupon , Vascepa costs about the same as PLUSEPA per day ...with no coverage or coupon Vascepa may cost an additional $3 a day.

So IMHO ...to get anywhere near the PPS ( price per share ? ) you are thinking of , you not only need Anchor ( which I expect ) but you need widespread Tier 2 coverage ( which I'm less sure of )

I don't expect the Co to sell until it gets Reduce it data . If Reduce it is successful in showing reduction in heart attacks ( as opposed to just angina ) ...then I expect widespread Tier 2 coverage and a lot higher price and then a possible BO
Good luck
AK

[sts66]

In reality, you should also have 1a, 2a, 3a, etc.....as in how low will the pps go during the sell off after those binary events as profit taking takes place....seems to happen to darn near every bio stock these days....at least the ones I own or follow...as far as your actual guesstimates, not going to make my own predictions, but don't agree with the Adcom/PDUFA jump - news should be baked in after the Adcom, if it's a blowout vote the stock should jump post Adcom and stay there, as PDUFA will be pretty much a non-event that everyone already knows the outcome.