Replies to post #10827 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[vinmantoo]

pollywog,

Right on target with your analysis. The big difference regarding mCopaxone vs mLovenox is that MNTA's share of revenues from their partner won't change if a second generic enters the market. A second generic is what kept MNTA's price lower. If MNTA had the Copaxone type deal for mENOX, they would be getting $80-$100 million/quarter despite Amphastar's entry. That would have made a dramatic difference in MNTAs stock price.

[jbog]

Polly

The market had 0 inkling of ampha getting approved. Hell, not even Watson knew they were going to get approved until they did

If this was true ( and we'll never know for sure) it just shows you how clueless everyone is about the dealings that happen in the backroom.

I said from day one that it's foolish to invest on either what the FDA does or on any court case. Period. Everyone here kept on counting about how much Amphastar and Watson were going to owe Momenta and not one person here would even consider the fact that it could be Momenta/NVS that would have to write the check. I brought it up repeatedly and was laughed at.

[io_io]

The market had 0 inkling of ampha getting approved.... but the fact remains you nor anyone could have predicted what ultimately occurred ....

Polly, what about forward-looking posts like these that got just contemptuous replies here:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52974645

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=71990757


My point is it was a curious/abnormal series of events that led us to where we are now

And my point is that you are chasing gold at the end of the rainbow - of a generics company. And because its the generics business, every time it gets an approval, that means the door is open to OTHER approvals of the same brand, without warning not notice, regardless of whether they occur on the same day, the same year, or next year, etc. By now you understand what competition means in generics pricing, and that in reality the much sought-after "duopoly" amounts to an investment on the edge of a cliff.