Dr. Chen taught FINA 4327 Speculative Markets. Can you imagine spending an entire semester on options, futures and futures on options? My team project involved arbitraging similar commodities like coffee (long) and cocoa (short). Cocoa prices vary widely due to frequent droughts (I suggest reviewing charts to see it yourself). The portfolio turned out to be a winner with an unusually large alpha value. Only one problem - no real money invested.
In any case, spinoffs also tend to produce unexpected results (see COP/PSX).
I also learned a great deal from Dr. John Peavy, III. I read a journal article which was the foundation for the 1985 book he and the late Dr. David Goodman collaborated on entitled Hyperprofits. The article helped me produce stellar results in my portfolio management class up until the Bhopol disaster wiped a great deal of Union Carbide's market value.
What was the concept behind the book? In simplist terms: industry-relative PE ratios.
COV's valuation has been very stable over the past five years.
COV is currently trading at 16.82 (TTM). The PE (5YA) is 16.05. The industry average is 26.73 and 32.14, respectively.
On a Price/Sales basis, the values are 2.45 (recent quarter) and 2.52 (TTM). Comparable industry values are 4.63 and 7.36.
COV will be revalued once MNK is spun off.
The valuation of MNK would need to be compared to Pharmaceuticals, where the PE (TTM) is 22.33 and the PE (5YA) is 25.43. Pharma has been trading at a 6.99 PSR (TTM).
All of the information listed above should be deemed a starting point in the valuation process.
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