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Re: vpagano post# 10

Sunday, 06/09/2013 1:07:54 AM

Sunday, June 09, 2013 1:07:54 AM

Post# of 33
Quantity detailed in relative, not absolute terms.

I guess I should have written, "Purchased JUL $55 Call at $8.88 per contract on 6/03/13.

Do I know how the options will be treated after the spinoff? You bet! I had a little help almost 30 years ago from a very nice man named Andrew Chen.

Dr. Chen taught FINA 4327 Speculative Markets. Can you imagine spending an entire semester on options, futures and futures on options? My team project involved arbitraging similar commodities like coffee (long) and cocoa (short). Cocoa prices vary widely due to frequent droughts (I suggest reviewing charts to see it yourself). The portfolio turned out to be a winner with an unusually large alpha value. Only one problem - no real money invested.

In any case, spinoffs also tend to produce unexpected results (see COP/PSX).

I also learned a great deal from Dr. John Peavy, III. I read a journal article which was the foundation for the 1985 book he and the late Dr. David Goodman collaborated on entitled Hyperprofits. The article helped me produce stellar results in my portfolio management class up until the Bhopol disaster wiped a great deal of Union Carbide's market value.

What was the concept behind the book? In simplist terms: industry-relative PE ratios.

"Someone said it takes 30 years to be an instant success" - Gabriel Barbier-Mueller, CEO of Harwood International