Replies to post #81765 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[JMKel]

I am glad that you are getting something from the argument. <g>

The fact is that is the way the market has been reacting for about a month now. So it is not really an argument or an opinion as much as an observation. Whereas your position is purely a colored opinion. Are you short?

I do not think war/no-war will determine the market trend for the rest of the year. It will produce a pop in the market based on its behavior so far.

[Sandy Mack]

Leon...I think you over-simplify the possible outcomes here. There are more than the two you suggest:

1) a peaceful resolution...bullish
2) a quick war (1-3 weeks) with initial impacts yielding positive results for the US...bullish
3) a complicated, drawn out (months) urban war after initial results leaving no clear progress...bearish
4) continued delay tactics by Saddam that are tolerated by the UN and prevent a solution before the summer...bearish
5) a WMD strike by Saddam...bearish

...and there may be even more that I haven't considered. There is a great deal of uncertainty, make no mistake about it.

Sandy