I am glad that you are getting something from the argument. <g>
The fact is that is the way the market has been reacting for about a month now. So it is not really an argument or an opinion as much as an observation. Whereas your position is purely a colored opinion. Are you short?
I do not think war/no-war will determine the market trend for the rest of the year. It will produce a pop in the market based on its behavior so far.