Replies to post #149657 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

McBio thinks that since they didn't test for c-MET in the Phase III, the trial is suspect.

I don't know if "suspect" is the right word. It does raise some questions for the lead indication but I think it was jq that noted before that the Phase 2 results were even more robust because crossover was allowed. So, it's not as if they don't have a chance for success in Phase 3. Still, I may not consider a position until after the initial results are out or, at best, take half a position in front on the initial results. Market cap doesn't exactly look expensive to me at ~$300M market cap, especially when you have other oncology companies like MACK with limited data trading at triple the valuation.

[iwfal]

ARQL

McBio thinks that since they didn't test for c-MET in the Phase III, the trial is suspect.

FWIW I think I am the primary doubter of MARQUEE, because MetMab in their ph ii in a similar (sub)population had a very poor HR. Combine this with the fact that the ARQL was heavily post hoc'd and I have my doubts. But I certainly wouldn't guarantee a negative outcome.

[jq1234]

Here is my explanation on INCY/YMI position: MSG#148919

As of ARQL, I can't find any cheaper valuation for a company with as promising ph3 drug. I know Asian NSCLC population well, I don't have any concern on ILD issue for non-Asian population. I had discussed ARQL randomized ph2 NSCLC trial many times, and the potential risk from ph3, you can do a search. It's a more complex story for people who don't know clinical trial inside out. I don't expect anything from upcoming interim analysis except the trial continues to final analysis next year.

As I mentioned in previous post, I have reduced many speculative biotech holding in the past two weeks, many of them doubled, some of them tripled. The more they go up, the more I am willing to put on ARQL. I am a contrarian. I buy when no one wants it, sell when everyone wants to buy if I believe nothing changed fundamentally.

Let's just look at SNTA and ARQL at current valuation. Granted, SNTA's drug is not partnered yet. When I look at their ph2 trials in similar NSCLC population, and how the trial was conducted, and data presented so far, there is no doubt in my mind I would bet on ARQL ph3 without biomarker than SNTA ph3 without biomarker at current valuation. If their valuation change, I might change my mind as well.