Biotech Values

[jq1234]

Here is my explanation on INCY/YMI position: MSG#148919

As of ARQL, I can't find any cheaper valuation for a company with as promising ph3 drug. I know Asian NSCLC population well, I don't have any concern on ILD issue for non-Asian population. I had discussed ARQL randomized ph2 NSCLC trial many times, and the potential risk from ph3, you can do a search. It's a more complex story for people who don't know clinical trial inside out. I don't expect anything from upcoming interim analysis except the trial continues to final analysis next year.

As I mentioned in previous post, I have reduced many speculative biotech holding in the past two weeks, many of them doubled, some of them tripled. The more they go up, the more I am willing to put on ARQL. I am a contrarian. I buy when no one wants it, sell when everyone wants to buy if I believe nothing changed fundamentally.

Let's just look at SNTA and ARQL at current valuation. Granted, SNTA's drug is not partnered yet. When I look at their ph2 trials in similar NSCLC population, and how the trial was conducted, and data presented so far, there is no doubt in my mind I would bet on ARQL ph3 without biomarker than SNTA ph3 without biomarker at current valuation. If their valuation change, I might change my mind as well.