Replies to post #141483 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: AMRN effect from Roche news?

…it seems Roche is going to abandon Dalcetrapib and this could put Roche in the position of considering buying AMRN...

Hi, JL. Roche might have done that anyhow, regardless of the commercial prospects for Dalcetrapib. One could even press the contrary argument: that the failure of Dalcetrapib gives Roche less of an economic impetus to try to leverage a CV salesforce.

Discrediting a therapy which attempts to raise HDL would certainly raise AMR101's value.

That’s unclear, IMO; inasmuch as several HDL-raising approaches to cardiovascular health have already been discredited (#msg-63656000), what’s the big deal if one more item is added to the list? Regards, Dew

[biomaven0]

reported rise in LP-pla2 in the Roche trial

Very interesting indeed - wonder if that is a class effect or peculiar to this compound. If it's a class effect that would be very bad.

There is a BB company Diadexus (based on IP from INCY I think) that sells a test for LP-pla2.

When I looked at Diadexus a couple of years ago, the LP-pla2 angle looked pretty convincing to me. Never invested though and haven't followed them at all. If I recall correctly, they were pinning their hopes on a large GSK trial of a drug that aimed to reduce LP-pla2 - not sure if the trial has reported yet or not.

http://www.diadexus.com/

Peter

[DewDiligence]

(AMRN)—JL, someone just quoted you as saying the following:

Leerink's [AMR101] estimate of $1.5 bil [annual] revenue in three years is a gross underestimate…off by an order of magnitude...

Did you really post that? An order of magnitude greater than Leerink’s forecast of $1.5B would be $15B per year! No drug in history has sold that much.