Replies to post #5459 on Liquidmetal Technologies Inc (LQMT)

[Seminole Red]

this is all i could find in current info...quarter report will tell the tale

On April 25, 2012, the Company issued a bridge promissory note to Visser Precision Cast, LLC (“Visser”) in the aggregate principal amount of $300,000 (the “April Note”). The April Note is unsecured and is due and payable on demand within three days after the Company receives notice of payment from Visser. The April Note will bear interest at a rate of 8% per annum, increasing to 15% per annum following any failure to pay principal or accrued and unpaid interest on demand in accordance with the terms of the April Note.

On February 27, 2012, the Company issued an additional bridge promissory note to Visser in the aggregate principal amount of $200,000 (the “February Note”). The February Note is unsecured and is due and payable on demand within three days after the Company receives notice of payment from Visser. The February Note will bear interest at a rate of 8% per annum, increasing to 15% per annum following any failure to pay principal or accrued and unpaid interest on demand in accordance with the terms of the February Note.

On January 17, 2012, Liquidmetal Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a bridge promissory note to Visser Precision Cast, LLC (“Visser”) in the aggregate principal amount of $200,000 (the “January Note”). The January Note is unsecured and is due and payable on demand at any time after February 1, 2012. The January Note will bear interest at a rate of 8% per annum commencing on February 2, 2012, increasing to 15% per annum following any failure to pay principal or accrued and unpaid interest on demand in accordance with the terms of the January Note.

[Watts Watt]

Here are my thoughts. I think the December revenues of 250000 may have been for only a week or two or a fraction of the month. So I believe the operating rate of the 1 machine has been fairly constant.

I believe that the 400000 total from the first two bridge loans were used to cover an operating deficit of about 100,000 per month beginning in February and ending June 30.

I think the 300,000 bridge loan is for CAPEX at Visser, i.e. the addition of one more machine.

I see this as a fulfilment of STEIPP's plan to both become profitable in the third quarter AND to RAMP up CAPACITY.

I also see VISSER adding another machine at year end, leaving a total of 3 machines by beginning January, In other words, these are IOU notes from STEIPP to VISSER, or if you will, an advance against future sales.

So I am going to suggest that the company has been producing an average monthly revenue between 900 to 950 K per month for the last 6 months. I also believe they have been operating at near capacity cycle wise.

If the bridge loan is for the purchase of the machine upon delivery, I believe that the Engel #2 machine has been shipped or soon will be and will be operational late June early July. JUST MY HUMBLE OPINION.

I am also going to assume, that with the addition of the second machine, we will probably operate at 85% to 90 % capacity to be on the safe side, so I foresee revenues in the 2nd half approaching 1.5 to 1.7
million per month.

GO AT IT YOU FINANCIAL GENIUSES. FIGURE IT OUT.

on a forward looking annualized basis, I change my PPS projections to be 20 million annualized in earnings beginning June 30 with a 13 PE ratio and outstanding of 190,000,000 shares to get an estimated $1.36 per share.

I think this is a valid set of assumptions, but on the conservative side as far as the PE Ratio. Some believe it should be 20. In such a case the PPS would be closer to $2.10. I remember that someone had made a projection of 2.65 PPS. However, I believe that was overly optimistic. There may have been a slippage of 3 months on the PERT diagram in getting the second machine due to the necessity to tweak the melt, vaccuum and NC systems to optimize production. I think this makes some compromise between $1.36 and 2.10 a possibility. I am going to say about $1.75 PPS as my best hunch.

Coincidently, that equals the spike up we had when the Apple deal was announced. I think this is purely a co-incidence or, possibly, a DIVINE OMEN sent 1-1/2 years ago. LOL.

I do hope someone else who is an expert can make a far more accurate projection. TEE HEE