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Re: Liquid_Observer post# 5459

Saturday, 04/28/2012 1:07:49 AM

Saturday, April 28, 2012 1:07:49 AM

Post# of 239080
Here are my thoughts. I think the December revenues of 250000 may have been for only a week or two or a fraction of the month. So I believe the operating rate of the 1 machine has been fairly constant.

I believe that the 400000 total from the first two bridge loans were used to cover an operating deficit of about 100,000 per month beginning in February and ending June 30.

I think the 300,000 bridge loan is for CAPEX at Visser, i.e. the addition of one more machine.

I see this as a fulfilment of STEIPP's plan to both become profitable in the third quarter AND to RAMP up CAPACITY.

I also see VISSER adding another machine at year end, leaving a total of 3 machines by beginning January, In other words, these are IOU notes from STEIPP to VISSER, or if you will, an advance against future sales.

So I am going to suggest that the company has been producing an average monthly revenue between 900 to 950 K per month for the last 6 months. I also believe they have been operating at near capacity cycle wise.

If the bridge loan is for the purchase of the machine upon delivery, I believe that the Engel #2 machine has been shipped or soon will be and will be operational late June early July. JUST MY HUMBLE OPINION.

I am also going to assume, that with the addition of the second machine, we will probably operate at 85% to 90 % capacity to be on the safe side, so I foresee revenues in the 2nd half approaching 1.5 to 1.7
million per month.

GO AT IT YOU FINANCIAL GENIUSES. FIGURE IT OUT.

on a forward looking annualized basis, I change my PPS projections to be 20 million annualized in earnings beginning June 30 with a 13 PE ratio and outstanding of 190,000,000 shares to get an estimated $1.36 per share.

I think this is a valid set of assumptions, but on the conservative side as far as the PE Ratio. Some believe it should be 20. In such a case the PPS would be closer to $2.10. I remember that someone had made a projection of 2.65 PPS. However, I believe that was overly optimistic. There may have been a slippage of 3 months on the PERT diagram in getting the second machine due to the necessity to tweak the melt, vaccuum and NC systems to optimize production. I think this makes some compromise between $1.36 and 2.10 a possibility. I am going to say about $1.75 PPS as my best hunch.

Coincidently, that equals the spike up we had when the Apple deal was announced. I think this is purely a co-incidence or, possibly, a DIVINE OMEN sent 1-1/2 years ago. LOL.

I do hope someone else who is an expert can make a far more accurate projection. TEE HEE
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