Replies to post #4147 on Liquidmetal Technologies Inc (LQMT)

[Tails]

Well, it might make sense, but it doesn't really serve to explain or predict current prices.
As much as we wold like to understand and predict the market's reaction to the current situation - it can't be done.
The market will reveal on a real time basis.
Besides, if this analysis were predictive then whatever run-up we do experience would be followed with a gut wrenching collapse.

It is all different today. A whole new all game
If one is concerned about a 20 cent move in either direction then good luck with that.
2 weeks ago we were talking about possibly adding to our positions at $.12 and below!

I can't believe I missed the fact that Carlyle Group had purchased recently at $.22 - I wonder what prompted that!

[sojomy]

It appears that I erred. At the time of the Sep 10 MTA agreement and the run up to 1.76, I think it is safe to say that the outstanding shares was 80 million, not the 43 I first reported. Therefore, the dilution since then has only been two fold. This would mean, then, that an equivalent to the. 1.76 run up would be about 83 cents in terms of today's 160 million shares.

If the numbers and dates provided...

6/30/2010 49.25M
8/20/2010 84.7M
3/15/2012 160M

...are accurate, then yes, you can say that the O/S was ~85M on Sept 10th, but can you say definitively that it was also already up to ~85M during the run-up to $1.76, which occurred on August 12th, 8 days before the August 20th value of ~85M. And the run-up actually started on August 9th, 11 days before August 20th. There are 50 days between the June 30th value of ~50M and the August 20th value of ~85M. Do you know for sure that the O/S was increased before the run-up started on August 9th? If not, there are 11 days between the start of the run-up and the August 20th value where the O/S could have still been at ~50M. 11 Days doesn't seem like a lot, but that's a 22% chance that it was still only ~50M during the run-up. If that's the case, then there is a 3.2 multiple of dilution, which would make a $1.76 high equal to a current high of .55. The previous run-up took 4 days to peak, and if it goes up higher on Monday, that would be the fourth day.

Accordingly, I would say that we are only half-way (41 cents) on our way up to the equivalent 88 cents peak of the Sep 2010 run up. This is why I think we will, inspite of some necessary pullbacks, see a continued run up to the 80 cent level in the coming months, if not weeks.

If you are correct, and the O/S was already increased to ~85M before August 9th, then there is currently a multiple of 1.88 for O/S dillution since then. That would make a high of $1.76 equivalent to a current high of ~.94. Also, the fourth day had the largest dollar value increase, so if the current rise is going to be just like the last, Monday could very well go close to .94.

In other words, I think the sep 2010 expectation has been met. This is a new base in the forties.

This statement from your first post is my biggest reason for replying at all. Your last sentence is not logical based on our previous rise ~2 years ago. In our last rise, from start to peak, the price increased 6.29 times the pre-rise value. If we do rise to .94 tomorrow, we will have increased 6.27 times the pre-rise value. But what you're failing to mention is that less than 2 weeks after the previous peak, the price was down 71%. If the same thing happens again, the price will be back down to ~.26 in less than two weeks from tomorrow. If anyone buys tomorrow in the .40's (or up to the theoretical .94 peak) thinking that it won't go lower anytime soon, or will at least base in the 40's, how do you think they will feel when they see their investment is down 35-71% in just a couple of weeks?




I also have a problem in general with comparing the current rise with the rise from 2 years ago. The rise that happened 2 years ago was because the world found out that "LQMT made a deal with AAPL" and "AAPL paid LQMT $20M" and that's all they knew. They didn't know the details for a very long time. I didn't see the MTA myself until ~4-5 months ago, and I have been reading this board every single day, reading several others frequently, and finding out anything I can about LQMT since August 2010. The rise that is currently happening is all because of a rumor from a korean paper. Do you know how many short-term spikes we have had in the past 20 months just because of rumors? There were rumors of the iPhone 4, iPad2, iPhone 4S and iPad 3 (technically, "The New iPad", the dumbest name ever for a product IMO) all being made with Liquidmetal. And when every one of those rumors came out, the price rose for 2-6 days, peaking in a sharp spike as volume increased. However, in every one of those run-ups, the price ended up back where it started in 2-12 days, and within another 1-2 weeks, the price was even lower than it was before the run-up.

The problem I have with this rumor is that it has 2 main pieces of information, 1) The next iPhone will be made using Liquidmetal and 2) The next iPhone would be released in June. Most media attention is already ruling out the June release. If 50% of the rumored paper is incorrect, why would anyone believe the other 50% of it?

I do admit that this spike is much greater than the previous 4 rumor-spikes, but I directly attribute that to the amount of media that this rumor-instance has generated, more specifically the size of the sites that are running the information. In the previous run-ups based on rumors, the rumor was picked up by macrumors.com or appleinsider.com, and then it was reposted (sometimes rewritten, but still quoted) on 5-15 other sites. This current rumor has been picked up by 50+ sites, including large news sites, and even non-internet media (I read a post where someone said that they heard it mentioned on a radio show, but I can't confirm that).

I have been buying and selling (both investing and trading) LQMT since the first day of the run-up in 2010. I have made money and I have lost money. Back in June of last year, just 10 months ago, I really believed that we wouldn't go any lower than the 50's. I thought I could buy and hold, for 6-12 months if needed, and eventually I watched it drop all the way down to the recent low of 11.5 cents, a 77% drop from the .50s and 94% drop from the high in 2010. Long story short, because this run-up is all based on a (widely spread) rumor, I believe it will act like it always has, and I think that within a month, the price will be back down into the low 30's. I also think that in the next 2-4 months, we will be back down in the low 20's, and possibly see the teens again.

That being said, I obviously believe that eventually LQMT will be many multiples of where it is at even now. I belive that Steipp will finally make very big things happen. I also firmly believe that AAPL will eventually use LQMT, but I do not know whether it will be in the iPhone 5 or 6, or the "The New iPad-S". I don't know if it will be a case or a fuel-cell battery. But I do believe that they will eventually use it and LQMT will get a lot of recognition for it. I don't believe that AAPL will be paying LQMT directly for anything ever again, but I do believe that we could generate revenue from agreements with Materion, Engel and Visser based on what AAPL does. But I also see it as equally possible that we won't get anything else from AAPl, even indirectly.

Because I believe all of this, I do have a block of shares that I purchased, and continue to purchase (to average down), that I will not be selling for a very long time. In the interim, I will continue to buy when I see a trough and sell when I see a spike. As a general rule, when you see a base forming over 2-3 weeks, that is a great time to buy. Then just wait 2-4 months for the next rumor to crop up and sell when you see a ceiling forming over a few days to a few hours.




Now before anyone gets their panties in a wad and jumps into hyper-defensive mode insisting that there is no way that I could be correct in anything I have said, and tells everyone not to listen to a word I say because I am probably shorting the stock, please read the following. One, I am not short this stock - shorting stocks is way too risky for me. Two, just because someone says something that you don't want to hear, doesn't mean that it must be wrong. A smart trader / investor takes all possibilities into account. If you trade / invest emotionally, fall in love with a stock, or refuse to see any possible negatives, then you will eventually lose big. I may not win as big as some (usually partially lucky) people who take larger risks, but in the long run, I will usually lose a lot less too.

Also, for the poster who specifically got his panties in a wad over the last few posts I made, you should really try to refrain from insulting (or trying to insult) other posters. Your referral to "sodomy", when you clearly knew that my handle is "Sojomy" was not only unoriginal at best, but it was also very insulting. Sojomy is a not-so-common boy's name in several foreign countries. If my name was "Bob", would you start calling me "Boob" just because you didn't like what I had to say? Hopefully not, because that would make you look like a typical internet douche, which is exactly the impression I was left with from your reply. In the future, if you don't like what someone says, refer back to what mom used to tell you - don't say anything at all.