John, excellent post...as for myself I also see the short position as a normal market reaction to an already oversold, if not extremely oversold U.S. dollar. But having said that, the commercials who are also known as "smart money" have been consistently wrong about the precious metals sector since it bottom out about two years ago. They're trading against the primary trend and they'll only get squeezed, yet again.
FWIW, the bigger the short position the better the buying opportunity.
Regards,
Michael.......