Hi Michael, Please excuse me for butting in, but your praise for John Disney's insightful post was based on some content that was, in reality, written By Steven Saville and subsequently lied about by Disney when the comparison to Saville's analysis was made by a poster on the Turnip Thread. This is, by no means meant as a criticism of you, but as a sincere desire on my part to warn the iHub community that this man represents a real danger to the uninformed members who might respond to his offers to help them.
It is my sincere desire to get him banned from iHub. I hope I can count on your support. I don't know what his agenda may be, but do we even need to worry about what problems his bullshit con games might lead to? I think he is like a cancer and should be cut out before he spreads.
Btw, the Entrance Lobby is looking mighty fine of late. The new lineup of contributors is very impressive and I'll be around much more often.....
I posted this a bit earlier over at Zeev's humble abode. <gg>
*** A MUST READ FOR ALL TURNIP PATCHERS ***
A cursory check of something that John Disney wrote earlier today leads me to believe that he is a Lying phoney and, IMO, if that is the case, should be barred from posting on iHub
John Disney, you wrote earlier:
Posted by: John Disney In reply to: larry57 who wrote msg# 70846 Date:2/1/2003 3:35:37 PM Post #70852 of 70946
Larry57 -I'm not familiar with Steven Saville. Have you read what he has had to say? Does he understand what I am explaining?
Give us a break, John, or are we to believe that the following comparison is ... uh ... er ...um... a mere coincidence?
Bear with me a minute folks while I try to lay this out in a comprehensible manner so that you may decide for yourself whether this guy is worth our time or should be canned.
I am a subscriber to Steven Saville's market letter and much of what Disney wrote in an earlier post sounded like he was quoting some of Saville's work without giving him credit for it. I didn't think it a big deal until I read Disney's aforementioned post to Larry57 saying he was not familiar with Steven Saville yada yada yada!
Forgetting to credit someone's prior work is one thing, but to lie about it is worth taking note of.
Here is the excerpt of Saville's letter dated 1-29 that I believe Disney has stolen from and partially reworked by substituting a word or two of his own.....
For basis of comparison I will place Disneys words from his post 70840 in bolded fashion in the appropriate paragraph break.
Gold and the Dollar
The short-selling of gold shares
Veteran gold trader Jim Sinclair has posted commentary at http://www.tanrange.com/s/ChairmansCorner.asp?ReportID=48083 in which he puts forward an explanation for why the prices of most gold stocks have not surged in response to the persistent strength in the gold price over the past month. In summary, Mr Sinclair's opinion is that gold stocks have performed sluggishly in the face of the rising gold price because hedge funds have been buying gold futures and simultaneously short-selling gold stocks.
While some hedge funds would almost certainly be 'going long' gold futures and simultaneously 'going short' the gold stocks as Mr Sinclair says, along with myriad other ratio-type trades, we haven't seen any evidence to indicate that such a trade by the hedge funds is responsible for the recent less-than-stellar performance of gold stocks relative to the bullion. In particular and as explained below, the current 'short-interest' figures for gold stocks do not support Mr Sinclair's opinion.
While some hedge funds would almost certainly be going long gold futures and simultaneously going short the gold stocks as Sinclair claims, along with myriad other ratio type trades, this does not mean the hedge funds are responsible for the poor performance of gold stocks compared to the gold's performance. The current short interest figures for gold stocks do not support Sinclair's absurd conspiracy theory.
Before we review what the latest short-interest figures are saying we should define some terms. The 'short-interest' for a company is the total number of shares of the company that have been sold short. That is, it is the total number of shares that have been borrowed by speculators and sold, usually with the aim of re-purchasing at some later date at a lower price or for the purpose of hedging another position. The absolute number of shares of a particular company that have been sold short doesn't mean much by itself, but by comparing the short-interest in a stock to that stock's average daily trading volume we can get a more useful figure known as the Short Interest Ratio (SIR). This is because the average daily trading volume of a stock, that is, a stock's liquidity, will determine the size of the short position in the stock that can be established and subsequently covered without having a substantial effect on the stock price. For example, a total short-interest of 1M shares would mean nothing for a stock that routinely trades 1M shares per day (in this case the SIR would be 1), but would be very significant for a stock that normally only trades 100,000 shares per day (in this case the SIR would be 10).
A total short interest of 1M shares would mean nothing for a stock that routinely trades 1M shares per day, but would be very significant for a stock that normally only trades 100,000 shares per day.
A table included in the above-linked article is intended to highlight some of the small and mid-size gold stocks that might have been targeted by the hedge funds. However, we seriously doubt that a hedge fund doing a ratio-trade would buy gold futures and simultaneously choose to short-sell the illiquid stock of a small gold company such as Vista Gold or Richmont Mines. And they certainly wouldn't choose the stock of a silver/zinc exploration company such as Apex Silver. The type of stock they would choose is one with good liquidity and a high positive correlation to the gold price, such as Newmont Mining (NEM). Also, where stocks in the table have an unusually high short-interest there is generally a company-specific reason for the short-interest. For example, Kinross Gold (KGC) has a high SIR of around 6.2 (the short-interest in the stock is equivalent to about 6.2-times average daily trading volume), but this is due to arbitrage associated with the KGC-TVX-ECO merger.
No way would a hedge fund doing a ratio trade buy gold futures and simultaneously choose to short sell the illiquid stock of a small gold company such as Vista Gold or Richmont Mines. And they certainly wouldn't choose the stock of a silver-zinc exploration company such as Apex Silver. The type of stock they would choose is one with good liquidity and a high positive correlation to the gold price, such as Newmont . Also, where stocks have an unusually high short interest there is a company specific reason for the short interest. Kinross Gold has a high ratio of around 6.2 , but this is due to arbitrage associated with the KGC-TVX-ECO merger.
You often see a large increase in short-interest when a company does a new debt or equity financing, particularly when the financing involves the issue of convertible notes (notes that can be converted into shares at a pre-determined price). In fact, it is common practice for speculators who are buying a convertible note issue to simultaneously short-sell the stock with the aim of locking-in a risk free return. For example, in November of last year Durban Deep issued US$60M in convertible notes (refer to http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021104/lnm013_1.html for details). These notes are convertible into a total of 16M Durban Deep shares and at least some of the buyers of these notes would have hedged their position by shorting the stock. The increase in Durban's short-interest from around 1M shares to 9M shares in November was likely the result of the convertible note issue. Durban's short-interest had fallen to 6.4M shares by the end of December, giving it a rather modest SIR of 2.1.
You often see a large increase in short interest when a company does a new debt or equity financing, particularly when the financing involves the issue of convertible notes. It is common practice for speculators who are buying a convertible note issue to simultaneously short sell the stock with the aim of locking in a risk free return. Last year Durban Deep issued US$60M in convertible notes. These notes are convertible into a total of 16M Durban Deep shares and at least some of the buyers of these notes would have hedged their position by shorting the stock. The increase in Durban's short interest from around 1M shares to 9M shares in November was likely the result of the convertible note issue. Durban's short interest had fallen to 6.4M shares by the end of December, giving it a rather modest ratio of 2.1.
The total short-interest across the entire gold sector reflects a healthy amount of skepticism in the sustainability of the gold rally, but it does not appear to be uncommonly large and has remained fairly constant over the past few months. This is why we say there is no evidence that the 'ratio trade' described by Mr Sinclair is the primary reason for the recent lackluster performance of the gold sector. As such, at this stage Mr Sinclair's commentary represents an unsubstantiated opinion, albeit the opinion of someone who deserves considerable respect. When January's short-interest figures are published next month we will have a better idea of how much influence short-selling has recently exerted on the prices of gold stocks.
The total short interest across the entire gold sector reflects a healthy amount of skepticism in the sustainability of the gold rally, but it is definitely not unusual nor large and has remained fairly constant over the past few months. There is absolutely no evidence that the ratio trade asserted by Sinclair is the primary reason for the recent poor performance of the gold sector. At this stage Sinclair's commentary represents the opinion of just another conspiracy nut gone amuck.
One last comment: When stock prices fall further than most people think they should or don't go up as much as they are 'supposed to', the finger of blame is often pointed at short sellers. And, the finger-pointers almost always turn out to be wrong.
When stock prices fall further than most people think they should or don't go up as much as they are supposed to, the conspiracy nuts come out of the closet and point fingers at the short sellers. ================================================================================== This guy is a real piece of work and prolly a pos as well. Here are some of his other contributions from Saturday.
post 70726: I'll catch you guys tomorrow - got a hot date with my garden girl! Wifes away, mice will play! This is not a bad thread. Oh and be sure to email me for market direction no problem: jdisney@kingsley.co.za
post 11995: Wow! I post my email and sent to jail. Acuused of vulgairty! I AM JOHN DISNEY, A WELL RESPECTED AND QUALIFIED POSTER! I have a tremendous amount to contribute to this thread so that others may learn! Please let me out of jail! I AM NO CRIMINAL! PLEASE!!! PLEASE
post 70837: Let me start over. I promise not to post my email address again as I was told it is a violation. But for those who did copy it, my offer stands. I have a tremendous amount to contribute here and hope you will take advantage of my knowledge and expertise.
post 70850: Stowboat - I believe this constitutes spamming - stick to the topic!
post 70856: We all know more than enough about the Israeli on board the shuttle .. what was an israeli doing on the shuttle ??
post 70868: Stowboat-Apology accepted..
post 70880: Well fans.. it's off to bed with the garden girl. Promised I'd take her to Rollercoast at Ratanga Junction.. Gotta get up early.. Will consider signing up for a permanent membership.. Tah tah..
Disney has already gotten 2 people marks and God only knows how many good folks have emailed him for whatever kind of help they think he might be able to furnish.
I think he is a menace and will prolly hurt some of the residents here if he is allowed to continue posting.
Please believe me when I say I know his type quite well.
I would like to see him banned from posting on Ihub and if any of you feel the same way, I strongly urge you to let your feelings be known either by bringing them to the board or via PM's to Zeev, Matt or Bob.
I know it won't matter to most of you, but if Disney is allowed to stay, I will have to leave Zeev's humble abode and that would be a very big loss to me.
So what are you going to do?
Dan p.s. I haven't been able to preview this, so let me apologize in advance for any errors that may appear. Thank you all.
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