Replies to post #4107 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

World Bank and IMF give slightly divergent forecasts for global GDP in 2012/2013:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/business/global/world-bank-warns-euro-fears-may-slow-global-growth.html

[The World Bank] now expects global output to increase 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013. In January, it forecast that global output would grow 2.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year.

In other words, there’s been essentially no change in the WB’s forecast since January.

Compared with other forecasters, the World Bank’s predictions are slightly more pessimistic. The I.M.F., for instance, foresees growth of 3.5 percent in 2012 and 4.1 percent in 2013. The global outlook brightened early in 2012, the [IMF’s] report said…

Finally, there’s this tidbit from the WB report:

…the bank sees Europe muddling through its sovereign debt crisis without any market catastrophe, and the world maintaining its lackluster but steady growth path, as the most likely outcome.