Replies to post #135438 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I would presume the control arm (investigator's choice) can hit 5% or so, 1 or 2 ORs.

In the earlier trial the ORR in GPNMB+ was unknown because not all patients were tested (why?). But it can be estimated to be in the low teens.

According to the trial PR (http://ir.celldextherapeutics.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=93243&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1434911&highlight= ), ORR was 22% in patients with "significant stromal or tumor cell expression of GPNMB." So, not sure where you get that ORR was unknown in these patients. Note that these are the types of patients in the ongoing Phase 2b trial.

Do you think 011 has good a good chance in this trial? And if so, why?

I think, based in part on the foregoing, that 011 has a chance for success and I am accordingly quite long (CLDX is one of my largest holdings). There are no guarantees of course but I do like that CLDX doesn't seem to me to be priced for much chance of success given the market cap. I'm sure it will go down if trial results disappoint but they do have other things in the pipeline, which is part of why I am willing to hold through this key binary event.